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Hey,

If you're trying to decide on the probability of outcomes (how many psychic dice to throw at a power for example), obviously you're allowed to try and figure it out in your head, but are you allowed to do a pen and paper calculation? or if so, how about a step further and ask a computer model?

Thanks in advance.

Regards

T

Ultimately, it would just come down to whatever you and your opponent agree (unless you're in a tournament situation - in which case, ask the TO).

Personally, unless you're taking forever and dawdling doing this, I'd have no issue with it - all you're doing is some probability calculations, the dice still have the potential to ruin all your careful thought with a single throw.

It's not a school exam. You can do what you want.

Also, if you have a memory at least in the vicinity of average, you might even remember the odds of getting off a WC2 power with four or five dice for longer than it takes you to get a new game.

I'd wonder why you'd need a result so accurate you'd need to refer to a computer, and would probably get bored waiting on you to do the work undisturbed (I wouldn't want to distract you).

If you needed some extra help with probabilities, that's fine, but if you're worried about the difference between a 56.8% and a 57.1% success rate I'd feel we'd have different gaming priorities.

I tend to just split it into: impossible, unlikely, even, likely, certain and leave it at that. But then I'm really just there to roll dice and joke about being screwed by the dice gods.

Get a phone app. There are lots.
But, rough guesses are usually good enough to go for a move or not.

Its a game. Do what you like.

I like to keep games moving, guess the probabilities in your head and make a decision instead of wasting your opponent's time.

At least that's my take on it. If you showed up to a game with your calculator, I wouldn't make a fuss, I'd just say "really? You need to calculate stuff?" and then probably not ask you back for a 2nd game.

It's usually not hard to ballpark basic probabilities. Stuff like rerolls can make it harder to get a good estimate, but they're also more time consuming to figure out on a calculator as well so I'd hope you aren't' going to waste my time figuring out rerolls or worse yet, calculating binomial distributions.

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

At least that's my take on it. If you showed up to a game with your calculator, I wouldn't make a fuss, I'd just say "really? You need to calculate stuff?" and then probably not ask you back for a 2nd game.

This. I'm looking for a fun game of WarHammer, not a slow game of MathHammer. Do your calculations between games to have a feel for the "How likely" and "Is it worth it".

The rules of the game don't specify anything about taking time out for calculations. I think though that most people would prefer you to keep the game moving along rather than stop all the time to work out possible results.

I agree that I wouldn't care as long as you weren't slowing down your turns with it. If you're doing the calculations while I was moving, measuring, etc and not during your turn, or any time when it's delaying the game, have at it.

Why not draw up a cheat sheet detailing the probability of certain events happening in a game (The probability of getting a certain power off or the probability of wounds a certain model for example) as well as rules you'll be making most use of (along side a BRB page reference OFC)

Helps streamline the whole process... I just wish I had a method of streamlining the psychic phase for my 11 Psyker lists (29+d6 warp Charges!)

I generally just come up with an arbitrary percentage in my head and then go from there...

I.e., say I decide I want an 85% chance of success for a given power.

I'll work the numbers ahead of time and say I get 3 dice giving me a 72% chance and 4 dice giving me an 87% chance. For that power, 3 dice would be a "maybe" and 4 dice would be a "probably". I'd note those values on my power card and go with it. Anything below 3 becomes less likely and anything over 4 becomes more likely... but 3/4 is the break point.

I’d rather you didn’t spend active game time crunching numbers. If you want to scribble something out while I’m moving, sure.

But if you want to mathhammer during a game, I’m going to reserve the right to look at you funny. And probably get in a little mocking. Save that stuff for between games, just wing it when the dice are down.

If some guy pulled out the pen and paper and started writing out the calculations to see how many of his bolter rounds were going to probably kill my Orks this turn, I'd get kinda grumpy. Not so much because it's advantageous to him or whatever, just because it slows the game down and it's kind of silly. I'll go through my head how well something will go before rolling the dice but that takes a few seconds at most. That's just me making an informed decision, as opposed to doing my math homework on the table.

I'd say it's based on how exact the calculation is and how long it takes you to figure out.

If you say "hey, gotta take a sec to figure out if this move feels like a good idea," and spend 30 seconds counting stuff or ballparking math mentally, that's fine. 40k-style stuff is really straightforward with simple multiplication and division (number of attacks, chance of hitting); things like WMH have some curves that are easy to remember with a bit of familiarity.

If you whip out a pad, you're probably either going to...
a- take too long and make me impatient
b- be fast enough at math that you can ballpark in less time and you needing to show off or are putting so much on a minis game that you need to get more than your 5-10% margin of error ballparking

...you'll need to have an amazing attitude other than the calculation for me to not be really annoyed.

If you are struggling with basic probability to the extent of calculators or Iwotsits the at table I'm thinking dice heavy games might not be your cup of tea

Also, mathhammer might be a good indicator of what’s going to happen in the long term, but when it comes down to it, our fickle little 6-sided friends and their tart of a mistress, Lady Luck, have more to say about if you are getting that specific psychic power off then any calculations.

 Nevelon wrote:
Also, mathhammer might be a good indicator of what’s going to happen in the long term, but when it comes down to it, our fickle little 6-sided friends and their tart of a mistress, Lady Luck, have more to say about if you are getting that specific psychic power off then any calculations.

I put that power back in my hands by changing all of my 1 pips to 5 pips!

*Hi Five!

 Turnip Jedi wrote:
If you are struggling with basic probability to the extent of calculators or Iwotsits the at table I'm thinking dice heavy games might not be your cup of tea

You can keep that little raincloud to yourself, thanks

As for cheat sheets:
http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/597998.page

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The rules of the game don't specify anything about taking time out for calculations. I think though that most people would prefer you to keep the game moving along rather than stop all the time to work out possible results.

In a very deliberate parody of the permissive ruleset lawyers. I'm going to say: "the rules don't say you can, so you can't".

No pencil and paper please.
The calculations are not too hard. Get some practice for each relevant unit that you use at home.

-

The key to the matter is that, to the other person, there isn't any difference when a long time is spent:
- Performing calculations to determine the best move
- Performing divination to determine the best move
- Hemming and hawing indecisively trying to guess the best move
- Performing silent prayer for divine inspiration
or whatever else is happening.

It's a wargame, not a test in school, so no one usually cares whether you're breaking out a textbook, calculator, or electronic oracle of the divine order. Tournaments usually draw the line at consulting with another human being, though.

What usually matters is that these games have an expected time frame associated with them. And, generally speaking, if someone is asking whether it's okay to perform these calculations, they're not yet practiced enough to do them in a timely manner. Again, taking a long time to decide what to do, for whatever reason or technique being used, all pretty much looks the same to the same on the other side of the table.

Wargaming as a hobby relies on cooperation between two or more players to have fun. If you're playing using some form of tournament rules with set time limits per turn then what your opponent chooses to do with their time is up to them.

If you're playing in a friendly atmosphere and you feel like your opponent is taking too much time making calculations then you can ask them to speed up. I recently told a colleague, after giving them plenty of warning, that I wasn't going to play Catan against him anymore as the length of time he took to make his trades was ruining the game for me.

If it's a pivotal point of the game and your opponent wants to spend a little bit of time working out what to do then I think it's only sporting to give them five minutes or so to think, even working out stuff on paper if they want. Once or twice a game I would think was acceptable, but I would certainly kick off if they tried to do it every turn.

I have a Surface with Excel on it and an endless number of spreadsheets that model various possibilities

Practically, the number of uses during a real game, in an average of about 1,000 games is... zero However, it's cool, fun nerd-friendly stuff that I doubt anyone would mind if I actually punched in numbers.

The key to not annoying other people isn't the advantage you'd get, I'd imagine, it's taking longer for your turn.

 Talys wrote:
I have a Surface with Excel on it and an endless number of spreadsheets that model various possibilities

Practically, the number of uses during a real game, in an average of about 1,000 games is... zero However, it's cool, fun nerd-friendly stuff that I doubt anyone would mind if I actually punched in numbers.

The key to not annoying other people isn't the advantage you'd get, I'd imagine, it's taking longer for your turn.

It might be fun in the post-game BS session. “What were the odds of you flubbing that power? I should have been dead!” <clickity click> “2.3%"

I'd take the view that if its that important to you, figuring it out beforehand and learning the answers is the way forward.

This springs to mind.

I would not like it, there is a time and a place.

It is a game you are playing not an exact science.

 Rayvon wrote:
I would not like it, there is a time and a place.

It is a game you are playing not an exact science.

There is a random component that cannot be neglected.
As a rule, each probability above 50% is good and should be considered.