So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

AFTER plastic sisters deliver another bumber crop.
If I were into Brit Stocks, I would buy

They won’t crash unfortunately, at the moment they are looking for the tipping point at which the “special customers” stop buying.

So they keep increasing prices on new releases until one bombs and then next release they role back to the previous most successful price point.
At that stage to keep profits increasing they would most probably increase prices on old kits that are still selling well. Another option is to increase the number of books produced and the churn of books required to play.
The final options is to start producing stand alone games in which the cost of the new miniatures can be disguised by providing a look at all this other stuff you get in the box element with cheap cardboard. You could also produce cheap throwaway boxed “games” using existing miniatures that are not selling well.

I honestly think we have 12 months before the 1st £50 unit box is released and vehicles hit £75 for basic tanks. I used to think that GW were underestimating there customers being suckers who were completely price insensitive, turns out I was overestimating the core of GW’s customers.

Say for example the SoB are released at above GSC prices and despite the hype all 5 SoB players don’t buy into them and they bomb. GW then has 2 possibilities either the prices for the army were too high or there was no real demand beyond a manipulated survey. Ok not a good example because they would just write it off as no demand but you get the idea.

Not sure they'll crash but eventually the growth will slow.

Look to DnD to see something which has endured and kept a fan base for a long time.

DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

I think the only way for GW to stop making money is, if their main income source wouldn't be both able and interested in buying their models, and that could happen for various reasons in the future. That is as normal stuff goes. Other stuff could include wars, normal and tax, plastic tax implemented by an eco friendly goverment, huge spike in cost of molds to make the plastic models, crazy dudes exploding inside the nothingam HQ damaging the manufacturing facility etc.

They seem to be more then safe for the next decade or so. with most players being men over 20 in the 30s, the income of the fan base is only going to go up, which means that even if the player base were to shrink, they can always rise prices.

GW has a unique position in miniature wargaming because by and large its the main introduction point for the vast majority of people. It's no surprise either; they put the most money into outreach.

Schools programs, scouts and other hobby group programs, stores on the highstreet, a lot of 3rd party product lines in computer games, a huge library of books etc...

GW is very active in outreach and getting their name out there in the world and drawing people into their games. I figure that they are setting a powerful groundwork today to establish a big fresh wave of gamers who will steadily mature into the next adult generation. It's a very smart move because a lot of hobby blocks often have a huge generational gap that steadily develops and their falloff isn't so much the product failing, but the fact that a huge portion of their customer base gets old at the same time, drops out of supporting at hte same time and lacks the energy, drive and age distribution in local groups to actually recruit new younger members.

GW is working like mad to ensure that doesn't happen for them. Plus most of the other wargame companies honestly rely on GW to signal boost the hobby in general. Esp now that things like PP's Press Ganger system are gone and they appear to be a bit on the rocks in terms of recruitment. Meanwhile you've got game systems like Infinity which are clearly more geared toward the experienced model builder/painter/player.


GW has been up front that their current growth is not a sustainable long term view for them and that not only will their release rate eventually steady off, but that their growth will too. Which is a very sensible thing; they are not chasing that white elephant of continual growth and continual profit increases.
They've also got a powerful trump card that they don't take out loans for most of their expansion and investment. This means that when economic times get hard and sales are down; GW isn't left holding a lot of rising debt that they have to keep paying off. About the biggest thing that they hold that costs them would be their highstreet stores - however they are a fickle thing because they often promote local interest and keep the game going locally.

Though if push came to shove they could retire a bunch of them and at least make a massive saving if they really hit terrible times - though it would be a short term resolution that could cost them more in the long run in lost interest in those regions and lost money in the future re-investing in new stores.

AngryAngel80 wrote:
DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

D&D also had the unique position of having someone at the head who actively hated the players, hated Gygax, hated playtesting, and in general tried to actively ruin the company in support of her own products because she had the license for buck rogers stuff that she got royalties on.. It was very unique in how it crashed, but the CEO certainly certainly tried their hardest to do their best to ruin the company.

What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

AngryAngel80 wrote:
DnD did indeed crash, it just got bought out by another company and did much better for a time though it also had some major hiccups with that. While DnD is a popular brand for recognition much of that comes from being such an old product that currently is being handled by a mostly competent company.

However, it came very close to crashing out forever in its past.

GW however is going pretty well but have no illusions nothing lasts forever, either life or companies. At this point, I'd say GW will keep going strong but once its current long standing base all either move on or stop buying ?

I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

That said I can see GW lasting for quite some time with specialist games, smaller things and IP uses such as comp games and mobile games but the core business model may die off for them as people move away from these kinds of hobbies but the lore and feel of warhammer will be around for quite awhile yet unless something unseen happens to cause otherwise.

oddly the D & D problem isnt to different to what GW are currently doing, pumping out an absolute mountain of product, of massively variable quality, to the point people just gave up buying and muddled through with homebrew, difference being TSR's shaky cashflow and interesting management choices meant it wasn't going to end well

GW do at least know that and seem fairly stable in their finances, so barring any outright insanity (like 9th following the psykik wotsit story) they'll stay healthy enough

As far as younger people all being into tech, that actually has the potential to work in GWs favour long term, at least to a degree.

These things work in cycles, and it's likely we see some level of technological burnout, both from individuals who spent their who teens playing online games everyday and more broadly from sections of society. These individuals will like specifically seek out something more 'real' as an alternative to technology.

Basically I think there's always going to be a healthy market for something that involves physical miniatures and painting.

it's a lot easier to home brew d&d to the point yiu're not buying anything for D&D. meanwhile with 40k even if you're writing your own rules you're still having to buy minis.

BrianDavion wrote:
it's a lot easier to home brew d&d to the point yiu're not buying anything for D&D. meanwhile with 40k even if you're writing your own rules you're still having to buy minis.

Agreed. You can easily get into D&D without giving a penny to the people who make it. Legally even. Just some general gaming awareness and the free D20SRD. Models aren't even mandatory.

I not sure they will crash soon, but I have wonder if there playerbase is dropping as they get higher investments from single players. With things like forge world, are they getting single players that invest heavily into a army.
And with primaris marines a clear indicator of them trying to move into a new marine line. I wonder if they had started to see a marine drop. Maybe not much yet, but it takes time to shift as well.

For me, and the players I can discuss things with. The heavy marine release see a huge bleed of players over the years. With a feeling of if I do not get anything with this release, not to even expect something again for a few years.

Falling out of the hobby and not even looking to see if updates come.

Don't most hobbies in life become more expensive relative to inflation? I am sure people that are keen photographers are paying way more for stuff today compared to 10 years ago. Keen fisherman are probably paying more today for the most up to date kits.

It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

 Elfric wrote:
Don't most hobbies in life become more expensive relative to inflation? I am sure people that are keen photographers are paying way more for stuff today compared to 10 years ago. Keen fisherman are probably paying more today for the most up to date kits.

It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

One issue I think, speaking from aus prices.
A single box of primaris marines is more than a PS4 game brand new, codexes only a bit cheaper.

How fast it’s climbing could be worrying here, and I know it effects how many people get into the hobby(not just GW hobby) when it’s the first prices they see, as well as rules that are dodgy. It all ads up to a product that feels cheaper than the cost GW asks for it.

Failing probably not great, but I think GW needs a really good kick to get the stuff together in some places.

In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

If they continue making good rules, good models and the culture of the world is friendly towards them then they can keep things going with a 2-20 man team for at least 50 years, but they'll be nowhere near as profitable. In 300 years we'll be extinct or in a post-scarcity economy, so GW could potentially keep chugging as a small operation maintained by a few fire souls and some AI assistants or a master AI and some smart programs.

Sumilidon wrote:My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

I think the problem with this is that you're looking at it through the lens of one particular way of playing the game. With 3 ways to play, and the way the basic ruleset is then built on with additional layers of complexity, I think one could make the argument that 40K is more accessible to new players than it's ever been before. If you're a kid and you just want to dip your toe into the game, you can just get, say, the Know No Fear set, which gives you everything you need for you and a pal to dive straight into the game and start playing. All the other stuff can then subsequently build on that. Whereas previously, it was more of a case of "Right, before you even get going, you need an HQ, two Troops, this massive rulebook and a codex" – now it's a lot easier to dive straight into the basic game and then, if you feel so inclined, expand from there.

AngryAngel80 wrote:I can't see younger generations keeping it afloat as modeling, painting and the time taken to play a 40k game isn't what most younger gens want to be bothered with as well as spending the vast amount of money this hobby costs. It's all about the tech these days.

People have been making this argument to predict the demise of tabletop wargaming ever since I've been involved in it, which is pushing 30 years now. I'll believe it when I see it. One might even make the argument that there's a greater concern with people spending too much time in front of screens now than there ever has been before, and that's a good thing for anything that can sell itself on the basis of being something you can do away from a screen.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 vict0988 wrote:
In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

 Nazrak wrote:

People have been making this argument to predict the demise of tabletop wargaming ever since I've been involved in it, which is pushing 30 years now. I'll believe it when I see it. One might even make the argument that there's a greater concern with people spending too much time in front of screens now than there ever has been before, and that's a good thing for anything that can sell itself on the basis of being something you can do away from a screen.

Absolutely agree. Parents will see it as a positive. Yes it's expensive, but so are videogames really. I can see quite a few parents preferring to gift a GW kit and a couple of paints over the new PS4 game.

Then a lot of kids will go through the same shift personally as they enter adulthood - actively seeking out activities that don't involve staring at screens.

Not everybody of course, but a sizeable fraction.

It's important to notice that for new players the game is getting cheaper.

Codex marine was reduced in price.
Intercessor boxes have a really good point per $ ratio.
The easy to build contemptor is even better.

For a new player starting the game has become increasingly easy, and this is without even looking at the boxes.

GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

Not Online!!! wrote:

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

There were a lot of factors at play there. Sigmar release hurt the too, as did many other poor decisions of that regime.

The current higher ups seem a lot more savvy. Community engagement alone has been so much better.

Not Online!!! wrote:

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

Whilst I don't disagree as such, HH is still going strong and that runs on Windows Millenium...erm I mean 7th ed.

Honestly the previous CEO and upper staff appeared to mostly have just a huge set of blinkers on them. I think their problem was they both isolated themselves from their market too much (Kirby was famous for saying he didn't need user feedback or surveys or such); they also cut way too many communication ties to the point where existing fans were left information starved (GW of that age tried the internet - got bitten - and ran away).

They also appeared to be more focused on the shareholder returns than the company and product. The irony being that all those years chasing the fast profit return on investment didn't actually raise the profile half as much as listening and reacting to and giving the actual customers what they wanted.


AoS was the culmination of that era and it was probably a good thing all told. It brought a sledgehammer crashing down on the old structure and approaches and, whilst it was darn painful, it has resulted in a GW today that is far removed in many ways. They are running marketing 365 days a year; putting out podcasts, twitch feeds, news, comics, articles etc... on an honestly amazing scale. The investment in marketing and community outreach is quite staggering. The turn around is extreme from almost nothing to everything.

Sure price rises still happen, somemodels still vanish without warning; there are still areas to improve upon and we also had the FW mess of marketing with overseas prices rising dramatically after GW marketed a price reduction on shipping.


It's not perfect, but its a massive improvement.



Also I'd say GW are being really smart. With many hands on hobbies suffering an increasing ageing fanbase and dwindling younger fanbase; GW is pushing back hard against the digital trend and pushing itself into the younger markets. With a lot of other craft hobbies on the down and things like airfix no longer in the market - GW could really be setting the ground work to really steal what is left of that market and grow it. That's a powerful thing to achieve when the only other major creative toy around from that era is Lego who have done similar things (like game tie-ins) but have also twinned themselves with a lot of major movie franchises.

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:

Not Online!!! wrote:

 NoiseMarine with Tinnitus wrote:
GW is analagous to a tabacco company. Instead of their customer base dying due to health related issues they get older and priorities change for whatever reason.

They need a continuous replenishment of new long term customers. Also, to some extent they are reliant on their existing customer base getting new people into the GW hobby.

How could GW crash? Possibly with a simultaneous release of a staggeringly awful new ruleset for both 40K and AoS? However, being realistic that wouldn't necessarily cause a 'crash' or anything like an insolvency scenario as people would just play previous editions.

TLDR: GW won't crash but they could do something monumentally stupid which seriously affects the bottom line.

7th came pretty damn close.

Whilst I don't disagree as such, HH is still going strong and that runs on Windows Millenium...erm I mean 7th ed.

7th’s most glaring flaws were codex creep and formations, something HH largely avoids. As a rules set it wasn’t that much worse then other editions.

I worry about GW raising the price of entry too much. I look at the costs these days and wonder how kids these days can afford it? $100 tanks, $40 monopose characters? Sure, the start collection boxes, starter sets, and other “deal” boxes can bring the price down. But the cost of the individual kits is getting out of control. Now it might just be the old Grognard in me still has my internal price meter calibrated for when I was paying 95 cents for a gallon of gas, but it seems crazy.
And as a wargame, we need fresh blood. Without opponents, where would be be? All the outreach and advertising is not going to help if kids can’t afford to plonk the cash on the barrelhead to pick up a playable army.

 Nazrak wrote:

 vict0988 wrote:
In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

That's a good point, on the other hand, can the average person bind a book at home? What finishing touch can GW deliver that a future 3d printer cannot? Unless GW starts selling assembled and painted miniatures then I don't see how they can compete. The book publishing industry is being helped by libraries collecting books and loaning them out. Game stores are dying and GW and Hasbro prefer the direct to consumer profit rates to going through a third party to sell or loan out their miniatures. If people aren't buying miniatures to support their local game store, choosing instead to game in club houses or at private homes and 3d printing is cheaply available and produces models of the exact same quality, then what reason do you have to buy models from GW? Tournaments that check for whether a model is correct? GW sending their lawyers after people that publish models that look anything like their IP? I think 3d printing is the future for tabletop wargaming, I already have some buddies that 3d print their DnD minis.

Thing is a console or gaming quality PC is many hundreds of £/$ already. And most of those require an update every so many years and that's without buying a single game. Different markets might vary, but in general a new AAA title is still around the same price as many warhammer models.

Plus today GW has made a LOT more focus on things like Killteam and Warcry. Small games that you can get into. Now they always had them in the past, but they were never marketed all that heavily as their own thing. They were more tacked onto the side of the main game. With them being their own thing and being marketed like they are its an ideal avenue for the gamer with less money and/or time to play.


Also Warhammer has always been the "expensive" kids toy. It was the same 20 years ago. However many of its costs are often overblown somewhat, esp once you actually start comparing the mid to end costs against other hobbies. Many hobbies are cheaper to start or have smaller individual costs (eg Magic the Gathering packs are dirt cheap); but the total cost of what gets spent can actually come out quite similar.



Inflation has also taken a hit on prices, heck someone earlier mentioned camera gear and I saw the prices on most camera lenses increase by near double on many of the upper end gear. This was done through straight price rises, but also new versions with vastly inflated prices over the originals.

Almost everything has gone up in price, about the only thing that has really lagged is computer games; however the AAA prices have been steadily creeping up over the past few years; though they've also been hiding it with micro transactions and such too. Once £30 was the top price; now consoles are mostly hitting the £40 on average whilst many are getting much higher into the £60 bracket at launch. Micro transactions of course can dramatically raise that. Some also launch at a lower price but do day 1 DLC which, whilst its often disliked, does get the base game price down on launch day.



Of course different markets work differently. A top end camera lens might last you 20 years or more; a computer game will devalue super fast and heck there are some already appearing on humble bundle and such for almost nothing only a few years later.


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 vict0988 wrote:

 Nazrak wrote:

 vict0988 wrote:
In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

That's a good point, on the other hand, can the average person bind a book at home? What finishing touch can GW deliver that a future 3d printer cannot?

The fact that the product in the box comes out in 100% working order.
No fussing with loading a machine with raw materials; no dealing with increased cleanup; no faffing with it when the thing fails to cast or picks up an error etc... The home 3D printer has a long way to go before its idiot proof. Heck many people at home can't use a home printer and deal with basic problems like running out of toner or printing errors.

Plus lets not forget that currently even once its cast from the 3D printer you've still got to clean and paint it so its not actually saving all that much time over clipping parts out and clean and assembling them. In fact it might cut nothing out at all if you were home printing a sprue for custom building into different poses.


Now if the 3D printer could print a high quality pre-painted model that might change things, but I think that's avery long way off. Plus the "hobby" itself still involves a lot of own painting and "your model" stuff. Pre painted is an entirely different market in many ways, even though they share a lot of the same customers.



Honestly there are many products we buy off the shelf that we could make ourselves.Heck look at food. There has never been a time when cooking TV programs, books and machines for the kitchen have been better. You can buy everything you need and turn out really good quality food very easily. Yet many people instead eat out or they buy pre-made stuff. They don't buy a fish and batter it at home; they buy a pre-battered cod and just heat it up.
If anything the pre-cooked/prepared or eating out markets have grown significantly right alongside the rise in the ease of home cooking whilst the actual volume of home cooking has dropped off dramatically.

 BoomWolf wrote:
What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

Well their prices are still horrendously high, especially if you want to / are playing a faction that involves a lot of disposable units, they are killing the conversion and kitbashing aspects of the hobby (see: The ork buggies), balance and game flow is still a bit wonky and feels drawn out, which is ironic considering how 8th ed is supposed to be stream lined.
8th ed is only better when compared to 6th and 7th, imo. 4th ed was better. Games were faster, infantry still mattered and there were no Knights / LoWs.

So there are reasons for wanting GW to take a big hit out of hope that they might improve. Or just die out of spite.
Personally I don't really want that. I just want the hobby to be about hobbying again, instead of just buying whatever terrain kit GW wants you to buy.

Bringing out box sets of 15-20 models would be nice too, as that would help out horde players. You should be always be able to max out a squad with just 2 box sets, imo.
Orks need about 3-6 boxes to max out a unit. Necrons need 3 sets of warriors to max out scarabs, which is goofy as hell, especially when scarabs aren't even troops and will leave you with 16 extra warriors. Which is fine, its more models, unless you already have enough warriors and want to max out everything in your army for completion's sake. They also need 3 sets to max out tomb blades and 4 to max out flayed ones, but flayed ones are gak models so who cares.

I don’t know how things are at large but I still see a fair number of kids getting into the hobby on a regular basis. Far from drawing people away from it, the internet actually seems to help grow the hobby in places. When I got involved back in the day I would have loved to have had access to forums and group chats to help seek advice and share what I’ve done. Things feel so much bigger these dats

I think they are in a much better position than they were a few years ago in the doldroms of the Kirby era. Stuff like Start Collecting and big boxed sets are attractive products, and they still have a massive library of well made plastic miniatures.

I don't play GW games any more, but I still collect GW miniatures for use in other games and have a lot of fondness for their worlds (well, the Old World and the 40k Universe pre-8th edition) so I can see myself remaining a customer for the foreseeable future.

Recently I have been thinking about building small forces for all the 40K factions I like, just a start collecting and a couple of boxes for each one. I think this is exactly what GW wants me to do, but I do not feel manipulated - I think they are a good deal for the most part.

There are lots of individual kits I do not buy because I think they are overpriced, but the core offering of miniatures still presents good value .

 Nazrak wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

Some other people have agreed with you on this, but it's fundamentally wrong. It's confusing the medium with the product. Home printers didn't kill the print industry because the product isn't the physical book or magazine or newspaper, it's the story they're carrying to your eyeballs. The print industry is dying, the internet is what's killing it because it's a faster and cheaper way to get the product to your eyeballs. The home printer was never relevant to the printing industry.

In the case of tabletop miniatures the figure is the product, and the home printer isn't a faster, cheaper way to get the product into your collection. Yet. Anybody who thinks it's going to stay that way hasn't been paying attention.

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

I have issues with how GW runs things, especially when it comes to their pricing, but I don't wish destruction on the company that has brought me one of my favorite hobbies and fictional universes. There seems to be alot of nose-slicing and face-spiting going on in the WH fandom.

I'll admit that I wanted GW to crash when they released rules for burping good or having a long beard affecting AOS, I mean get the hell out, it's a tabletop wargame not a drinking game. If I want to turn it into a drinking game I'll do that on my own terms.

Why is it unbelievable. Lets say someone started to play 10-15 years ago. Bought an army for WFB, because they trusted the play what you like hype. Army sucked, they bought another army for WFB or w40k, and GW new edition nerfed it to be unfun to play. Then they waited for a WFB update a long time, which maybe never came. their W40k army stayed and sucked, when they still were buying models and codex to keep playing. AoS then killed their army, and 8th left their army in the dust.

You don't think that after 10-15 years of investing, and having little to no fun out of their money investment, some people maybe a little jaded as far as what they think about the fate of GW employees should be ? People hate other people over stuff that happened 200-300 years ago. And care nothing about the fact that it would maybe be more beneficial not to do it.

 Nevelon wrote:

I worry about GW raising the price of entry too much. I look at the costs these days and wonder how kids these days can afford it? $100 tanks, $40 monopose characters? Sure, the start collection boxes, starter sets, and other “deal” boxes can bring the price down. But the cost of the individual kits is getting out of control. Now it might just be the old Grognard in me still has my internal price meter calibrated for when I was paying 95 cents for a gallon of gas, but it seems crazy.
And as a wargame, we need fresh blood. Without opponents, where would be be? All the outreach and advertising is not going to help if kids can’t afford to plonk the cash on the barrelhead to pick up a playable army.

The price of entry isn't the problem at the moment. Start Collecting Boxes and 2 army starters ARE the point of entry into the game, if not the hobby. I'd guess most people get into the hobby buying a squad of troops or similar and some paints to decide if it's something they'll like. Then, to take the dive, the aforementioned army starters or SC boxes.

GW certainly isn't expecting young teens to be building full tournament armies (a few will, of course), they're expecting young teens to build/paint a few squads and play a few games and WANT to build full tournament armies once they're gainfully employed and have disposable income. At that point a $40 monopose character or $100 tank is affordable, especially when people of the same age routinely go out to a bar on a Friday night and drop the same kind of money on booze/food.

Start Collecting Boxes and 2 army starters ARE the point of entry into the game

:
:cough: well that is kind of a lot of money, specially for a starter. you can get whole game for this. Plus the start collecting stuff is horrible build traps. Who in their right mind needs a termintor HQ, 10 tacticals and a dreadnought or a baal predator. The start collecting may as well be named, units that you will never use, in most cases. The IG one is very good though, even with the comissar inside.

Karol wrote:
You don't think that after 10-15 years of investing, and having little to no fun out of their money investment, some people maybe a little jaded as far as what they think about the fate of GW employees should be ?

I can certainly see the frustration if that's the case - but a lot of people in the hobby are there more for building and painting rather than the game side of things, so GW's shenanigans really don't matter too much. If your fun is reliant solely on the quality of competitive play in the game, there are far better games to be looked into.

Kill Team is still pretty affordable. Rule Book, a select box of models (Deathwatch, Harlequins, Necrons, First Strike, etc.) and some dice/tape measure and a player is ready to rock and roll. Most gaming stores already had terrain if not full Kill Team boards.

There is a pretty big jump from Kill Team to even the smallest fulfilling game of full 40k though. I don't see many of the newer players locally making that jump any time soon. Which is fine by me, I like Kill Team far more than full 40k anyways.

 John Prins wrote:

Karol wrote:
You don't think that after 10-15 years of investing, and having little to no fun out of their money investment, some people maybe a little jaded as far as what they think about the fate of GW employees should be ?

I can certainly see the frustration if that's the case - but a lot of people in the hobby are there more for building and painting rather than the game side of things, so GW's shenanigans really don't matter too much. If your fun is reliant solely on the quality of competitive play in the game, there are far better games to be looked into.

Well I understand that, but unless I am wrong the prepostion was "I can understand why X fans could want the death of Y". Heck it can be even something as simple someone just being a psycho. I never understand when people say they understand why someone could do or want to do something evil. normaly I don't struggle with human interaction, but that I can easily imagine the whys. There are people who were "wrong" bye certain person from a specific group of people in their youth, only to keep trying to get back at them all their life with horrible consquances to the entire world. And it happens over and over again in history. But I do understand, that if I don't get some , or even a lot, of stuff there is a chance that different people don't get different things. It is strange to me, but I accept that such a possibility exists.
I just never know if people really don't get something or they are just making a joke, which I don't understand.

There is a pretty big jump from Kill Team to even the smallest fulfilling game of full 40k though. I don't see many of the newer players locally making that jump any time soon. Which is fine by me, I like Kill Team far more than full 40k anyways.

now if GW really did care a bit about the fans, they would develop kill team a lot more, or at least support it better. The problem with kill team is, that I don't think it generates enough turn up for GW, as you said it yourself, not many kill team players that play it for kill team, are making the jump to w40k.

Karol wrote:

Start Collecting Boxes and 2 army starters ARE the point of entry into the game

:
:cough: well that is kind of a lot of money, specially for a starter. you can get whole game for this.

I'm not arguing that GW isn't more expensive than other games, but when LEGO sets start at $140 CAD for anything decently sized, GW starters are in the ballpark of what parents can afford for their children.

Plus the start collecting stuff is horrible build traps. Who in their right mind needs a termintor HQ, 10 tacticals and a dreadnought or a baal predator. The start collecting may as well be named, units that you will never use, in most cases. The IG one is very good though, even with the comissar inside.

I agree about the build traps, but I think the only actually bad SC boxes are the Space Marines ones with Terminator HQ. Not all SC can be done in multiples like IG or Tau but are fine as single purchases.

This thread has been rolling since the 1990s. I remember when the first plastic skeleton box was released. It was $20 for 20 plastic models. And people lost their mind and said GW was going to bust any day now from their greed. That was roughly 1998 and banter was on the old AOL chat channels.

Then the land raider kit debut at $45 and the liquid hot magma of rage was scorching all in its path, because tamiya tanks were tons more detailed and cost about the same. And GW was going bust any day from their greed.

That was in 2000.

Portent and then warseer had a years long thread with over 1000 pages on the topic of GW going bust from their too high prices.

Here we are in 2019 and the thread is alive and well and the same topic for the same reasons.

I don't think they are going anywhere. They are for most of us the only game in town, like it or not.

 vict0988 wrote:
I'll admit that I wanted GW to crash when they released rules for burping good or having a long beard affecting AOS, I mean get the hell out, it's a tabletop wargame not a drinking game. If I want to turn it into a drinking game I'll do that on my own terms.

Hahaha, I think I’m the only person alive who thought this stuff was awesome.

haha 20$ for 20 models. I could afford to play like that

In the end companies go down, because of some outside stuff or something which later say was stupid to miss.

A plastic tax could cripple GW dead. As the other stuff goes, I don't know what they could miss, but I know that a long time ago Nokia ruled the phone industry, and at some point their CEOs and board decided that miniturisation has reached it peak, and that people will never want big screens etc. Who knows what is going to be GWs "big screens".

The Newman wrote:

 Nazrak wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:In 10-20 years GW will no longer be able to produce distinctly higher quality minis than the average consumer will be able to with their personal 3d printer, at that point their revenue streams will be limited to 3d modelling schematics, rules, novels and loaning out their IP to game companies.

I'm not wholly convinced this is necessarily true. After all, it's not like the advent of readily-available home printing killed the print industry.

Some other people have agreed with you on this, but it's fundamentally wrong. It's confusing the medium with the product. Home printers didn't kill the print industry because the product isn't the physical book or magazine or newspaper, it's the story they're carrying to your eyeballs. The print industry is dying, the internet is what's killing it because it's a faster and cheaper way to get the product to your eyeballs. The home printer was never relevant to the printing industry.

In the case of tabletop miniatures the figure is the product, and the home printer isn't a faster, cheaper way to get the product into your collection. Yet. Anybody who thinks it's going to stay that way hasn't been paying attention.

I think you make some fair points here, and I think you’re right that the two aren’t directly comparable. But people have been predicting 3D printing would drive GW out of business for pushing 20 years now, and I think we’re still a fair way off a 3D printer being a standard household item, or whether that will even ever be the case at all. I may we’ll be proven wrong, but I can’t see it happening any time soon.

 ArcaneHorror wrote:

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

I have issues with how GW runs things, especially when it comes to their pricing, but I don't wish destruction on the company that has brought me one of my favorite hobbies and fictional universes. There seems to be alot of nose-slicing and face-spiting going on in the WH fandom.

indeed.

Altough i would wish for a bit lower prices overall, and Stop selling a Balance patch, but broke or crash i'd rather not see GW go.
Would be a shame-

What, GW is crashing again?
I might not be a fan of GW's current direction regarding rules, lore and even models, but I do not think they are going to crash any time soon. They have too much institutional experience to walk into such pitfalls which generally result to company being wiped out. At some point they might see another sales dip like few times in the past, but they will survive.

 ZebioLizard2 wrote:
D&D also had the unique position of having someone at the head who actively hated the players, hated Gygax, hated playtesting, and in general tried to actively ruin the company in support of her own products because she had the license for buck rogers stuff that she got royalties on.. It was very unique in how it crashed, but the CEO certainly certainly tried their hardest to do their best to ruin the company.

In fairness to Williams however, she was able to acquire the company because it was almost bankrupt.

BoomWolf wrote:What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

It has more to do with a vast number of people getting priced out of the games. Some people question how far they can push things and not suffer some sort of profit loss, but that magic moment never seems to happen.


Except for Warmaster and Inquisitor, which died fast deaths.

 Nevelon wrote:


7th’s most glaring flaws were codex creep and formations, something HH largely avoids. As a rules set it wasn’t that much worse then other editions.

Exactly, sure the core rules had a quite a few problem points in there but for the most part the core game was functional and early codexes (even with formations) where relatively toned down. Clearly something happened at GW HQ where they pushed those Decurion style formations to ramp up the power. Sales certainly went up from that but it also greatly destabilized the game due to GW's complete inability to bother balancing anything. Then eventually the FAQs happened which showed a combination of GW either not caring enough or knowing well enough how to go about fixing the boat load of issues the game was facing. That said the formations, while problematic, did really make for some interesting armies but it was usually the most powerful ones that got abused.

Unrelated to past editions but as much as I dislike 8th and hate GW's primaris business strategy (the eventual forced obsolescence of old marines is anti consumer), they are making a lot of money so i doubt they will crash due to anything they are currently doing now. Brexit, a possible british/US/global recession, increased environmental concerns over plastic usage, and whatever other external factors could cause GW to slide.

 Saturmorn Carvilli wrote:
Kill Team is still pretty affordable. Rule Book, a select box of models (Deathwatch, Harlequins, Necrons, First Strike, etc.) and some dice/tape measure and a player is ready to rock and roll. Most gaming stores already had terrain if not full Kill Team boards.

There is a pretty big jump from Kill Team to even the smallest fulfilling game of full 40k though. I don't see many of the newer players locally making that jump any time soon. Which is fine by me, I like Kill Team far more than full 40k anyways.

Kill team is where I am set as well, and building up a bunch of house rules it’s basically setting up as our 40k as well now. With small to large skirmish on occasion.
I hope GW does not kill it, but I sorta still kinda worried about where gw would like to take it.

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

Well, truth be told it would require a specific kind of person to still hate a company and a game that lets say was created 20 years ago, and is gone for 10.

 Peregrine wrote:

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

You assume someone like WOTC would pick it up. Might be Hollywood picks it up and goes on a spree of a dozen Space Marine films which only very casually use the slightest hint of the lore in them (and mostly falls down to Americans in space suits winning wars against orks and aliens). Meanwhile the factory shuts and production jumps to China; the highstreet shops also vanish. Furthermore who wants to buy build nad paint - throw prepainted action figures into the boxes with simpler rules and such.

Or it gets bought by a company like WOTC which then lacks the resources to dig GW out of whatever hell of finances would necessitate it selling up. Again it might end up being a simple asset strip and IP hoarding exercise. Even if they wanted to bring it back such a massive fall could see the stores closed, the factory closed and it taking years to get anything back into production. Heck look at Spartan Games; its been 2 years and Warcradle is still only just getting things together (though in fairness they did decide to basically buy all the stuff and then remake the entire game from the ground up).


Like it or not at least with GW, most of their staff are passionate about the IP itself; even as it changes over time (and even with that passion we still had the Old World to Sigmar disaster happen, though I like to think that was more management pushing it).


Thing is any company selling up tends to be because of either major problems or a major merger with huge advantages. I can't see an ideal company for GW to pair with for the latter; and the former is a dreadful thing to think of and might well come only after years of the company dwidling into problems and the game likely falling to one side.

 CthuluIsSpy wrote:

 BoomWolf wrote:
What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

Well their prices are still horrendously high, especially if you want to / are playing a faction that involves a lot of disposable units, they are killing the conversion and kitbashing aspects of the hobby (see: The ork buggies), balance and game flow is still a bit wonky and feels drawn out, which is ironic considering how 8th ed is supposed to be stream lined.
8th ed is only better when compared to 6th and 7th, imo. 4th ed was better. Games were faster, infantry still mattered and there were no Knights / LoWs.

So there are reasons for wanting GW to take a big hit out of hope that they might improve. Or just die out of spite.
Personally I don't really want that. I just want the hobby to be about hobbying again, instead of just buying whatever terrain kit GW wants you to buy.

Bringing out box sets of 15-20 models would be nice too, as that would help out horde players. You should be always be able to max out a squad with just 2 box sets, imo.
Orks need about 3-6 boxes to max out a unit. Necrons need 3 sets of warriors to max out scarabs, which is goofy as hell, especially when scarabs aren't even troops and will leave you with 16 extra warriors. Which is fine, its more models, unless you already have enough warriors and want to max out everything in your army for completion's sake. They also need 3 sets to max out tomb blades and 4 to max out flayed ones, but flayed ones are gak models so who cares.

I have to strongly disagree here.

First, being expensive? hell yea they are, but this is a high quality product that resides deep within the realms of luxury. being expensive is honestly, rather expected.
Some hobbies go for mass appeal and cheap product, but GW stuff are designed, and marketed, as the top of the line, the best of the best. its a sports car, not a pickup truck.

Second-Killing the conversion and kitbashing aspect of the hobby? how? the new buggeis don't kill anything, they just give a handful of stock versions you can use if you don't care much for conversions, or bases to work from. nothing stops you from converting your own count-as for any of them. heck my tzeentch army is basically 95% conversions/kitbashed/countas (spirit hosts for horrors, morghast for princes, 30k breachers with some TS bits for rubrics, scarabs made from 30k tartaros, casstelax-achea for helbrutes...even my xiphons are modified for having rear-wings rather than front-wings)

Third, the game being drawn-out, wonky or that 4th was better. that's a valid opinion, but only an opinion and one I really don't share. I tried looking at 4th era codcies, and they were a freaking mess. "infantry mattered"? it still does. knights and LOWs not being a thing is not subjectively good-I for one love facing them, it feels great to take them down. (especially with supposedly "irrelevant" infantry) I gotta agree though that 7th had a lot of problems, but most of them derived directly from dragging aged mechanics all the way back from 4th edition, or even earlier I honestly don't know. 7th also had a lot of things I miss. (I liked the psyker system better back then, and formations as a whole were an amazing concept that could lead to the fluffiest armies being viable,it was just killed by a few formations who were bonkers)

Lastly, the box sizes.
If anything, I'd argue for SMALLER, not bigger.
Sure, you need multiples to max out. but what If you don't WANT to max out?
You want a minimal 5 man rubric squad? too bad, they come in 10s. Imagin of ork boyz came at 30s-what a pain it would be if you only wanted 10?
Boxes should adhere not to max squads, but to min squads. anything bigger can come in boxsets. not like GW is shy from putting boxsets lately.
Necron boxes need an overhaul anyway though, they are not exactly a measure of new GW given that nothing necron came out in forever outside of FW.


My main complaint about GW these days has got to honestly be primaris.
I mean, nothing is bad with the primaris themselves. they are not my flavor, but neither are nids or orks so whatever-the problem is releasing a ton of extra content to the army already most spoiled for content and attention.
Kina hard to suspend the "the imperium is besiged on all sides and on the verge of collapse" when just one faction of their multiple armies seems to be able to pump out a bigger varity of units than entire races. heck, more than multiple races-ffs I'm pretty sure that at this point you got more codex marines than the entire Tau (supposedly a coalition of several races) and necrons COMBINED.

I really wish they'll take the pedal of marines for a long, long time. and bring CSM up to speed (won't happen, they JUST got a codex, and it cried in comparison to the new codex marines), TS and DG properly fleshed out, Tau need a MASSIVE expansion of auxillaries, necrons need a big overhaul, yannari needs to be unfolded into its own actual army already, etc.
You can stop all marines (and BA/DA/SW/DW) items for 5 years, maybe even 10, and you'll still not catch up with non-imperials vs imperials, and that's not counting the fact there are imperials other than marines who would probably get a touch up in that duration (sisters are coming in about 2-3 months after all, guard are kind behind, inquisition is still index, GK needsing an overhaul and will likely get their own primaris dudes, etc.)

Isn't "Space Americans beat up all the filthy Xeno and Chaos" kind of the whole premise of 40k anyway? I'd say if Hollywood pumped out that film, they'd be pretty spot-on.

 flandarz wrote:
Isn't "Space Americans beat up all the filthy Xeno and Chaos" kind of the whole premise of 40k anyway? I'd say if Hollywood pumped out that film, they'd be pretty spot-on.

Aye but it wouldn't be gothic-grim dark and you'd likely start the film with a montage at some point as Jimmy Regular becomes a spacemarine overnight; but not just any space marine; the one that wins the war and kills the last hivequeen and saves the universe. Then he rocks off on his space ship and gets the spicy female space marine* gal and they go off to:

1) Make 5 sequels and 2 prequels

2) Fall out and he never mentions nor sees her again in the sequels if the actress doesn't renew the contract.


*could also be a female eldar or an Imperial guard or an innocent on a planet they are saving.

note - space marines are BRITISH not American!

I kinda like how GW has stuck with its Britishness rather than Americanising their stuff.

I mean, I know they all SOUND British, but just look at their society and tell me that isn't the most American thing ever. They hate "aliens". An extremely long period of societal stagnation. Incredibly harsh penalties for minor offenses. An incredibly wealthy upperclassman and a vast population of poverty stricken citizens. High chance of gun-related death. They even have an eagle as their icon. And do you really think the British would screw up Terra so badly that it has no natural water left? Or build their top government building out of gold?

 flandarz wrote:
I mean, I know they all SOUND British, but just look at their society and tell me that isn't the most American thing ever. They hate "aliens". An extremely long period of societal stagnation. Incredibly harsh penalties for minor offenses. An incredibly wealthy upperclassman and a vast population of poverty stricken citizens. High chance of gun-related death. They even have an eagle as their icon. And do you really think the British would screw up Terra so badly that it has no natural water left? Or build their top government building out of gold?

Didn't know the muricans were monarchiests, or would disallow constitutional rights, or were a fractured feudal society.

Also the eagle is double Headed go look up heraldry.

I'm just shocked you took an obvious exaggerative comparison seriously. Good show.

In other words: "it was a joke. Please don't take it seriously."

People have been predicting GW's imminent demise due to high prices for at least the last 20 years. While there was a time during Kirby's run in charge where it was actually looking like more of a real possibility, it seems fairly clear that time has passed.

GW have been remarkably good over the years at refocusing what they do to stay on the top of the heap. And while I'm not personally a fan of the direction they're currently taking, it's impossible to deny that it's working for them, and there's no particular reason to assume, based on previous performance, that when it stops working for them they won't find a new direction that works just as well.

At the end of the day, if GW's offerings seem too expensive, you're just not in their target demographic.

If 7th didn't totally kill GW then nothing will. GW exist simply because of the way copyright law allows you to monopolize IP. If other companies could make 40k models they would have been run out of business years ago.

Long story short GW isn't going to crash anytime soon. There isn't a bubble economy inminature gaming, amd thr worst of the compamy's history was under Kirby.

Now things can go south.as they explore new ways of keeping the game updatwd and fresh, but qe're not on track to crash amytime soon.

 BaconCatBug wrote:
If 7th didn't totally kill GW then nothing will. GW exist simply because of the way copyright law allows you to monopolize IP. If other companies could make 40k models they would have been run out of business years ago.

To be fair you could say that of a lot of companies! Undercutting is quite easy, the real trick has always been providing a long term product and service. Many a firm has started life undercutting only to end up raising its prices to match once they mature; or folding because they were operating in an unsustainable manner.




I think the biggest risk to GW would be major changes in highstreet rents and rates. They are already cripplingly bad and the highstreet further sliding into decay and getting more and more expensive could be a huge issue for them in the future.

 Overread wrote:

I think the biggest risk to GW would be major changes in highstreet rents and rates. They are already cripplingly bad and the highstreet further sliding into decay and getting more and more expensive could be a huge issue for them in the future.

Given how much of their business has already moved online, that doesn't seem like much of a risk. The only difficulty for them will be in finding ways to grow gaming communities in those areas (the US, mostly) that currently rely heavily on stores for that purpose... Which they've already started working on with the return of tournament support and getting active in the convention scene. I would expect to see a growing focus on encouraging gaming clubs and school gaming groups over the next decade.

Karol wrote:

Start Collecting Boxes and 2 army starters ARE the point of entry into the game

:
:cough: well that is kind of a lot of money, specially for a starter. you can get whole game for this. Plus the start collecting stuff is horrible build traps. Who in their right mind needs a termintor HQ, 10 tacticals and a dreadnought or a baal predator. The start collecting may as well be named, units that you will never use, in most cases. The IG one is very good though, even with the comissar inside.

That sounds like a patrol detachment to me. So if you dont have any models you have a legal list and it is battle forged. You gotta start somewhere. If you are buying a SC box for competition uses, I think your doing tournaments wrong.

Peregrine wrote:

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

That's exactlywhat I want, either one of those companies running GW. MTG is a cancer(opinion) and one of the main reasons there are soooo many 40k players who treat the game like MTG.

GW is doing just fine and the game seems to be working out for a significant # of players. Just not for the incredibly negative anti GW rhetoric spewing individuals.

8th isn't perfect, but it is damn good and only hope that some of the stuff from Apoc (alt activations, d6d12 for wounding, wounds at end of whole turn) and the Cities of Death terrain/cover rules are added to basic rules.

flandarz wrote:Isn't "Space Americans beat up all the filthy Xeno and Chaos" kind of the whole premise of 40k anyway? I'd say if Hollywood pumped out that film, they'd be pretty spot-on.

Pretty much this

The Imperium is not Space-America. If anything it is space Germany from the Middle Ages. Well, the Holy Roman Empire, anyway. Crossed with communism and nazism for good measure.
The Imperium is far less individualistic than the United States. Maybe Chaos fits you guys better? Hyper individualistic and also kinda religious?

I'll take it!

 Peregrine wrote:

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

I have to say I do not understand at all this fixation some people have at FFG like they're supposedly so competent. I mean, sure, they release lots of good games, but rules bloat, constant FAQs to fix nonexistent proofreading...yep, sounds like FFG. I mean, seriously, some of the stuff they release is so buggy as practically unplayable out of the box.

IGOUGO is a feature, not a bug.

What I find interesting is of those who want "GW to die" most then go on to say how they'd like another company/person/team/setup running GW. So what they want isn't for GW to die at all. What they want is for policies, skills and some directions in GW to change. So rather than die they rather just want a change of CEO and key controlling individuals within the company resulting in a shift of skills and policies closer to what they want.

Some others also want GW to weaken in its hold on the market and to open it up to others. So its not so much about killing GW as it is about opening up wargaming to other companies in a bigger way than it is now. Which isn't bad at all and honestly would be a good thing - its a shame that PP has started losing that fight; though I also think that there are other elements and the fact that many 3rd party stores struggle and generally favour things like Magic over wargames tends to not help the wargame market.

 Da Boss wrote:
The Imperium is not Space-America. If anything it is space Germany from the Middle Ages. Well, the Holy Roman Empire, anyway. Crossed with communism and nazism for good measure.
The Imperium is far less individualistic than the United States. Maybe Chaos fits you guys better? Hyper individualistic and also kinda religious?

I'd like to point out that the Imperium best matches the Byzantine empire, but this isnt the thread to get into that...

 BaconCatBug wrote:
If 7th didn't totally kill GW then nothing will. GW exist simply because of the way copyright law allows you to monopolize IP. If other companies could make 40k models they would have been run out of business years ago.

GW's IP is just so incredibly strong. The difference in quality between GW IP and that of other companies is vast. I imagine GW has invested so much into IP at this point that they'd still have plenty of options even some mistakes are made in their core business of selling models.

Right now the big push to bring the Warhammer brand up to modern standards is working tremendously and you can really see how all of that deep investment in IP development from 3E to 7E is paying off. They are currently reaping the rewards of all of that prior work.

People have made the cry that tech will crush more physical past times, I still think it will. Parents still won't want to spend the money on models to get kids away from screens they should be wanting them to do more physical past times in general. At this point I have not seen young kid one buying in, where I did around 5th editions launch.

The start up and maintaining it is just too expensive and it's always the same story. Now maybe most who post here only live in the lap of luxury but far more of the world doesn't and I don't think it's any coincidence the costs keep going up and up. If anything the new players tend to be returning players and the rises are all going to the old players who aren't starting armies from scratch and merely adding to current armies.

If I wasn't so invested already, and only kept up with things I'd not start it out fresh now. I currently wouldn't get a child into it knowing the hundreds of thousands of dollars it would be. The vast majority of kids I end up seeing as well couldn't care less about modeling. All our impressions however aren't anymore than local experience and as said I don't think they are going anywhere for a long while.

Saying there is no path for down turn though is just silly. As nice as these toy soldiers are eventually, they too will fall.

Well, for kids the GW products are not really attractive: prices, not digital, assembling and painting miniatures. The trend goes away from consoles and into handys / pads via cloud computing.
We had the discussion here for years that GW is not able to get kids into the game. This situation hasn't changed.
But what we see here are new players at age 20 or so who have the money to buy into the system.
Forget the kids discussion, its an abstract one.

BrianDavion wrote:
it's a lot easier to home brew d&d to the point yiu're not buying anything for D&D. meanwhile with 40k even if you're writing your own rules you're still having to buy minis.

Well, you have to buy someone's minis*, sometime....


* Assumes minis are an essential element to the game - vs just tokens.

It may be, but I think as time keeps pressing forward it'll be increasingly hard to get even the 20 somethings to care. People just don't have the patience they used to. It takes way too long to do much with this hobby for most. I'm old enough to remember before people had cell phones or most even used computers I value the experience mini games offer. I still think thats something that won't last.

I do hope it does, as I've had good people to play against and even in the most dire times loved playing warhammer. For me, it's always a step above digital entertainment. To say people don't change though and things aren't pressing to ever more digital no fuss no muss past times is I think ignoring the trend.

I wasn't one of the ones who said it was heading this way 10 years ago, now however I have this feeling like most of the profits seen is just in the raised costs and breakneck pace of releases in combination. Once that slows down then it would be interesting but they can't keep it up forever eventually the well will run dry.

ccs wrote:

BrianDavion wrote:
it's a lot easier to home brew d&d to the point yiu're not buying anything for D&D. meanwhile with 40k even if you're writing your own rules you're still having to buy minis.

Well, you have to buy someone's minis*, sometime....


* Assumes minis are an essential element to the game - vs just tokens.

You don't even necessarily need tokens. D&D can be played with theatre of the mind, though it takes a certain kind of group.

 flandarz wrote:
I'm just shocked you took an obvious exaggerative comparison seriously. Good show.

In other words: "it was a joke. Please don't take it seriously."

I wouldn't worry, its most just a hangover from you 'merikeens tricking us out of our Empire with thinking...

 Da Boss wrote:
The Imperium is not Space-America. If anything it is space Germany from the Middle Ages. Well, the Holy Roman Empire, anyway. Crossed with communism and nazism for good measure.
The Imperium is far less individualistic than the United States. Maybe Chaos fits you guys better? Hyper individualistic and also kinda religious?

Primaris however...
the exceptional marine. Boo-yah.
Blingy ghetto pistol styles,
oversized rifles on jump pack 'shock' troops (?).
I bet the Repulsor has parts that say "General Dynamics" on them somewhere.

 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, for kids the GW products are not really attractive: prices, not digital, assembling and painting miniatures. The trend goes away from consoles and into handys / pads via cloud computing.
We had the discussion here for years that GW is not able to get kids into the game. This situation hasn't changed.
But what we see here are new players at age 20 or so who have the money to buy into the system.
Forget the kids discussion, its an abstract one.

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/763215.page

And yet an informal poll suggests very strongly the otherwise. That the under 18 is actually the age bracket that the majority of gamers begin the hobby and that once you hit 20 there's a very steep falloff in recruiting people new to the hobby in general. Kids is not abstract its the core and I'd wager you'd see a very similar pattern for magic the gathering too and quite a few other hobbies.

 auticus wrote:
This thread has been rolling since the 1990s. I remember when the first plastic skeleton box was released. It was $20 for 20 plastic models. And people lost their mind and said GW was going to bust any day now from their greed. That was roughly 1998 and banter was on the old AOL chat channels.

Ooh, these guys from the days of WHFB 2e?
http://solegends.com/citboxes2/skeletonhorde.htm
24 skellies in a box way back in 1986/87.

 auticus wrote:
This thread has been rolling since the 1990s. I remember when the first plastic skeleton box was released. It was $20 for 20 plastic models. And people lost their mind and said GW was going to bust any day now from their greed. That was roughly 1998 and banter was on the old AOL chat channels.

Then the land raider kit debut at $45 and the liquid hot magma of rage was scorching all in its path, because tamiya tanks were tons more detailed and cost about the same. And GW was going bust any day from their greed.

That was in 2000.

Portent and then warseer had a years long thread with over 1000 pages on the topic of GW going bust from their too high prices.

Here we are in 2019 and the thread is alive and well and the same topic for the same reasons.

I don't think they are going anywhere. They are for most of us the only game in town, like it or not.

Huh, how much was $20 in 1990?

 Stux wrote:

ccs wrote:

BrianDavion wrote:
it's a lot easier to home brew d&d to the point yiu're not buying anything for D&D. meanwhile with 40k even if you're writing your own rules you're still having to buy minis.

Well, you have to buy someone's minis*, sometime....


* Assumes minis are an essential element to the game - vs just tokens.

You don't even necessarily need tokens. D&D can be played with theatre of the mind, though it takes a certain kind of group.

I was referring to 40k.

 Overread wrote:
What I find interesting is of those who want "GW to die" most then go on to say how they'd like another company/person/team/setup running GW. So what they want isn't for GW to die at all. What they want is for policies, skills and some directions in GW to change. So rather than die they rather just want a change of CEO and key controlling individuals within the company resulting in a shift of skills and policies closer to what they want.

Some others also want GW to weaken in its hold on the market and to open it up to others. So its not so much about killing GW as it is about opening up wargaming to other companies in a bigger way than it is now. Which isn't bad at all and honestly would be a good thing - its a shame that PP has started losing that fight; though I also think that there are other elements and the fact that many 3rd party stores struggle and generally favour things like Magic over wargames tends to not help the wargame market.

Most people don't understand what would actually happen if a new company aquired GW. they'd likely scrap 40k all together and use the IP to produce something differant. like a CMG based around crappy click bases. *is STILL bitter about MWDA*

 CthuluIsSpy wrote:

 auticus wrote:
This thread has been rolling since the 1990s. I remember when the first plastic skeleton box was released. It was $20 for 20 plastic models. And people lost their mind and said GW was going to bust any day now from their greed. That was roughly 1998 and banter was on the old AOL chat channels.

Then the land raider kit debut at $45 and the liquid hot magma of rage was scorching all in its path, because tamiya tanks were tons more detailed and cost about the same. And GW was going bust any day from their greed.

That was in 2000.

Portent and then warseer had a years long thread with over 1000 pages on the topic of GW going bust from their too high prices.

Here we are in 2019 and the thread is alive and well and the same topic for the same reasons.

I don't think they are going anywhere. They are for most of us the only game in town, like it or not.

Huh, how much was $20 in 1990?

$20

Looking it up, comparable to about $40 today.
https://www.dollartimes.com/inflation/inflation.php?amount=20&year=1990

I remember when a can of cola from a vending machine was 20 pence. Now its £1.50-2 depending on where you are.

Some things increase in price lots, some not so much - I don't feel GW are at an unreasonable price point.

It could be expensive if you're in a hurry to put together an army and make lots of purchases, that's true. Any initial start up to a hobby can have a high cost if unchecked.

 Ishagu wrote:
I remember when a can of cola from a vending machine was 20 pence. Now its £1.50-2 depending on where you are.

ouch, I'd forgotten how much Soda was in europe vs North America. that same can of cola here goes for a buck to a buck twenty five.

Racerguy180 wrote:

Peregrine wrote:

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

That's exactlywhat I want, either one of those companies running GW. MTG is a cancer(opinion) and one of the main reasons there are soooo many 40k players who treat the game like MTG.

GW is doing just fine and the game seems to be working out for a significant # of players. Just not for the incredibly negative anti GW rhetoric spewing individuals.

See, I'm kinda in the middle. I agree with Perri that GW frankly needs someone more competent at the reigns, but at the same time players are treating it like Tragic the Saddening; which the game is clearly not meant for. Now, inherently this is not bad. WMH functions in a similar way and the game is far tighter than 40k, but that is because it is fit for purpose. 40k is not and is being bent and broken by these MTG types into something it is not.

It can't cut both ways. Either they need a sharper game to cater to (presumably) what the market now wants or kick them out somehow (dunno, maybe by finding a new game to ruin. Though to be fair GW was caught in a perfect storm as a lot of WMH players abandoned ship due to a rocky Mk3 launch and 8th (initially) getting 40k into gear at roughly the same time) to continue with the game as "intended".

GW will never crash. The closest they came was during the Kirby era and if they didn't fail then I don't know what will kill them. It's hard to imagine someone WORSE than Kirby at the reigns.

 Grimtuff wrote:

Racerguy180 wrote:

Peregrine wrote:

 Elfric wrote:
It's unbelievable that there is a group of Warhammer fans that really want Games Workshop to fail.

Because it's what is best for the hobby in the long run. 40k is a strong IP concept with serious problems in management and game design. The best outcome would be for GW to die and for WOTC or FFG to buy the IP, get rid of all of the incompetent employees, and release a much better execution of the concept. Until then we're stuck with rules bloat, IGOUGO, and constant FAQs to fix their lack of proofreading.

That's exactlywhat I want, either one of those companies running GW. MTG is a cancer(opinion) and one of the main reasons there are soooo many 40k players who treat the game like MTG.

GW is doing just fine and the game seems to be working out for a significant # of players. Just not for the incredibly negative anti GW rhetoric spewing individuals.

See, I'm kinda in the middle. I agree with Perri that GW frankly needs someone more competent at the reigns, but at the same time players are treating it like Tragic the Saddening; which the game is clearly not meant for. Now, inherently this is not bad. WMH functions in a similar way and the game is far tighter than 40k, but that is because it is fit for purpose. 40k is not and is being bent and broken by these MTG types into something it is not.

It can't cut both ways. Either they need a sharper game to cater to (presumably) what the market now wants or kick them out somehow (dunno, maybe by finding a new game to ruin. Though to be fair GW was caught in a perfect storm as a lot of WMH players abandoned ship due to a rocky Mk3 launch and 8th (initially) getting 40k into gear at roughly the same time) to continue with the game as "intended".

Honestly i think its GW that has bent and break 40k. It could be far far better in everything, if they put the effort into it. There are rules that where perfectly fine, if cleaned up they abandon to fit the poor design of models and theme.
Rule of cool, Its an excuse to say meh things are cool so they do not have to put the design work into them at this point.

 Sim-Life wrote:
GW will never crash. The closest they came was during the Kirby era and if they didn't fail then I don't know what will kill them. It's hard to imagine someone WORSE than Kirby at the reigns.

It's important to remember that Kirby wasn't all bad and turned the company around financially when he took it over originally. I think the main issue is that he got too disconnected from the actual customerbase and became far more focused on the shareholder value than the product value. Considering the amount paid for their new website system (paid to his wifes company) he might have had more of an eye to bleeding off money that he could rather than investing into the company. I also wonder if wasn't malicious but also attempting to follow business practices of some other market segments and systems.

Whatever it was I think it was an issue that grew and developed rather than was just flat out bad all throughout. His focus was in the wrong direction and it didn't help that he seemed to like running a very isolationist style company - departments very strongly separated from each other; even very strong separate from the customerbase to the upper reaches of the company.

 Overread wrote:

 Sim-Life wrote:
GW will never crash. The closest they came was during the Kirby era and if they didn't fail then I don't know what will kill them. It's hard to imagine someone WORSE than Kirby at the reigns.

It's important to remember that Kirby wasn't all bad and turned the company around financially when he took it over originally. I think the main issue is that he got too disconnected from the actual customerbase and became far more focused on the shareholder value than the product value. Considering the amount paid for their new website system (paid to his wifes company) he might have had more of an eye to bleeding off money that he could rather than investing into the company. I also wonder if wasn't malicious but also attempting to follow business practices of some other market segments and systems.

Whatever it was I think it was an issue that grew and developed rather than was just flat out bad all throughout. His focus was in the wrong direction and it didn't help that he seemed to like running a very isolationist style company - departments very strongly separated from each other; even very strong separate from the customerbase to the upper reaches of the company.

This.

Kirby took a company losing money and turned it around.

He did a lot of weird stuff. The animosity towards customers, the weird secrecy obsession, etc., etc.. all true. But financially GW might well have crashed if Kirby hadn't come in at the time he did.

It might even have been that GW originally trying to cater to creativity and customers too much had resulted in part of the original financial problems. Many a person has taken a hobby into a company and produced a fantastic product that then went on to cripple them because they got so focused on the customer and product that they lost sight of the finances.

It's basically the extreme other end of the scale to what we saw at the end of the Kirby era and many of the policies. In truth a company needs a healthy balance of both sides at all times - too much of one and you end up with problems.
Too much focus on customer and product and the finances can suffer
Too much focus on the finances and such and the product and consumer can suffer.

Either way leads to company death (the latter is typically slower than the former)


IF anything I think the potential most lasting damage might be the internal fragmentation of teams at GW itself in terms of sharing information between them on upcoming products and projects and changes and such. Hopefully this might start to change and resolve itself provided that the rivalries and power struggles between teams are not too bad but its super hard to predict anything along that scale without any view of the actual inside world of GW.

 Overread wrote:


IF anything I think the potential most lasting damage might be the internal fragmentation of teams at GW itself in terms of sharing information between them on upcoming products and projects and changes and such. Hopefully this might start to change and resolve itself provided that the rivalries and power struggles between teams are not too bad but its super hard to predict anything along that scale without any view of the actual inside world of GW.

This hits the nail on the head. How many complaints about balance in 40k isn't so much that the army is broken as a whole, but rather that it's broken when compared to rules written for other armies by other writers? GW writers not talking to each other is a meme in the community, and they need to really work on getting rid of that perception of them.

When people mention the “Kirby era” never forget almost everyone in charge now was hired by Kirby and signed off on Kirby’s plans. Like his little red book, GW’s employment practices and the annual price rises etc.
Only reason he got shoved overboard is he became to much of the public face for GW’s problems it made it very easy to jettison him and a lot of the negative pr went with him. A FB and a new pr company later and we have nu-GW.

Ishagu wrote:I remember when a can of cola from a vending machine was 20 pence. Now its £1.50-2 depending on where you are.

Some things increase in price lots, some not so much - I don't feel GW are at an unreasonable price point.

It could be expensive if you're in a hurry to put together an army and make lots of purchases, that's true. Any initial start up to a hobby can have a high cost if unchecked.

2 quid for a freakin soda, man that's gotta blow.

The initial buy in for 40k isnt that big(hobby side alone), it's when you want to play bigger games that the costs go up. You can get many many hours out of painting a tac squad for relatively cheap.

Honestly, if GW's goal is to sell models, they should probably focus on providing well-balanced rule books and offer those for free. Can't think of a better way to push models than for all of them to be "good" in the game, and free books means more people are gonna see them and say "Wow! This looks like fun!"

 BoomWolf wrote:
What's with the hate boner stone people in dakka have for GW...

They are dying better than ever and you guys are thinking "gosh I hope they are going down"... Wtf...

It has been hard ever since they cant use the investor reports or icvv2 to claim the company is about to fail.

This is just the newest iteration of that mentality and it seems Legends managed to stir the muck up from the floor.

When I was a kid during second edition i didn't have the money to buy a 2000 point army. I got into the game by playing hero quest, drooling over mail order catalogs, and Frankensteing units together.

It took a very long time.

These days? I can add a unit and keep pushing through kill Team or shadespire. I can build up pieces through War Cry. I can dabble in standalones like Aeronautica.

There are more avenues into the hobby than ever.

GW will crash if they make a succession of poorly received models, allow the games to go stale and competitors produce something better.

This happened circa 2012-2016. The nadir has to be the AoS launch.

If I was to put a date on things turning around, its probably the deathwatch overkill box. This felt like something the old GW would never have had the courage to do.

From then on almost every model release was a hit (imo anyway). This then went into overdrive with 8th edition, de facto AoS 2nd edition and GW have been throwing out new and old game systems faster than plastic addicts can buy it.

GW was perhaps also fortunate that even as the rage over AoS burned brightly, and 7th was a bloated, unfair, unfun mess, both X-Wing and Warmahordes also started to acquire ever more bloat, and, imo at least, started to feel ever more tired. I also feel Warmahorde's plastic sculpts are dire, and while they compare okay to GW 2012~ era, they now look varying shades of embarrassing.

PP hit a wall with their plastic not working out so great and their mess of launchign 3rd edition along with crippling their consumer outreach program and forums. I honestly hope the new CEO they have taken on will turn things around as I'd hate PP to fall apart to nothing.

I'd rather hope that a MIV might well be on the table to help restore order and clear things up - right now I feel that they are coasting for an edition on a core loyal fanbase, but bleeding their casual players and lacking recruitment of new players in a large scale.

These days? I can add a unit and keep pushing through kill Team or shadespire. I can build up pieces through War Cry. I can dabble in standalones like Aeronautica.

There are more avenues into the hobby than ever.

This is indeed a smart move GW made.
Not sure what a no-deal Brexit would bring. Its still BJ's favorite.

 wuestenfux wrote:

These days? I can add a unit and keep pushing through kill Team or shadespire. I can build up pieces through War Cry. I can dabble in standalones like Aeronautica.

There are more avenues into the hobby than ever.

This is indeed a smart move GW made.
Not sure what a no-deal Brexit would bring. Its still BJ's favorite.

No Deal or Deal or whatever limbo we are in is just a mess. Whenever any final choice is made it will still be a mess for a considerable while until it settles down. GW has one bonus in that their home market and US markets are very large and likely more than able to sustain them if trade with the EU nations gets a bit choppy for a while.

The most likely result is that trade to the EU gets more expensive with tariffs, legal things and slower with customs. Slower customs might just mean it messes with stock distribution and GW might have to shift how much they produce and when it gets shipped so that it can make it through on time. This could cause a minor delay in releases in a block for everyone or a few "slow weeks" as GW might trickle out a release rather than release it all in one to let the next batch make it through. Increases in trade tariffs might be a harder pill to take because that could push prices up to the customer - though I think GW has enough profit cushion within their company that it won't sink them.

I wonder if they will move manufacturing the the EU.

 Da Boss wrote:
I wonder if they will move manufacturing the the EU.

Very unlikely. It's a huge cost got setup a factory and then stock it with moulds (esp since the plastic ones easily cost in the region of £100K) and then staff it with a highly trained staff for production and distribution. Not to mention the red tape of setting up overseas factories and the like. GW will have enough trouble with the red tape on their local stores.

The only markets I can see GW opening up a dedicated factory for are America and China region factories. Ergo ones logistically a very long way away where the transport costs are significant and where a local production facility could result in long term savings and better stock provision with less pressure on their core factory. That said these are big costs and come with high risk. GW might well feel that its less risk for them to focus production in their Nottingham factory site where they've got it all under one roof and under direct control and then simply soak the transport costs.

 Overread wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
I wonder if they will move manufacturing the the EU.

Very unlikely. It's a huge cost got setup a factory and then stock it with moulds (esp since the plastic ones easily cost in the region of £100K) and then staff it with a highly trained staff for production and distribution. Not to mention the red tape of setting up overseas factories and the like. GW will have enough trouble with the red tape on their local stores.

The only markets I can see GW opening up a dedicated factory for are America and China region factories. Ergo ones logistically a very long way away where the transport costs are significant and where a local production facility could result in long term savings and better stock provision with less pressure on their core factory. That said these are big costs and come with high risk. GW might well feel that its less risk for them to focus production in their Nottingham factory site where they've got it all under one roof and under direct control and then simply soak the transport costs.

You see the EFTA still exists.
So some countries will rarely really care. Coughlike us swiss

 Overread wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
I wonder if they will move manufacturing the the EU.

Very unlikely. It's a huge cost got setup a factory and then stock it with moulds (esp since the plastic ones easily cost in the region of £100K) and then staff it with a highly trained staff for production and distribution. Not to mention the red tape of setting up overseas factories and the like. GW will have enough trouble with the red tape on their local stores.

However, in order to complete a trade agreement with the EU will take time since all 27 members have to agree.
For instance, it took 7 years to complete a free trade agreement between EU and Canada.
As soon as the Brits are out of the EU, all trade agreements between EU and other countries like Canada do not longer hold for GB.
This is certainly bad news also for GW.

Aye but in theory trade agreements outside of the EU for the UK shouldn't take 7 years to complete because it should just be two countries at the trade table. Such as in your example the UK and Canada. Trade with the EU might be more difficult and messy, but in the end there's so much trade going back and forth that there's reason for both sides to want to trade - its more just getting over the hump that is political posturing.

 Overread wrote:
Aye but in theory trade agreements outside of the EU for the UK shouldn't take 7 years to complete because it should just be two countries at the trade table. Such as in your example the UK and Canada. Trade with the EU might be more difficult and messy, but in the end there's so much trade going back and forth that there's reason for both sides to want to trade - its more just getting over the hump that is political posturing.

I wouldn't be too enthusiastic.

The EU has a free trade agreement also with Japan. Japanese car manufacturers currently move out of GB to produce at home or eventually in the EU.
USA is another problem. There are certain problems that hampered a deal with the EU. E.g. EU farmers say in France were not happy with the deal negotiated with USA and the deal wasn't made and was postponed (ad infinitum?). The people in UK are smart enough so that they will not be pulled over the barrel. Don't count on Trump with his America first politics. It doesn't fit into Johnson's gain back control.

 Overread wrote:

 Da Boss wrote:
I wonder if they will move manufacturing the the EU.

Very unlikely. It's a huge cost got setup a factory and then stock it with moulds (esp since the plastic ones easily cost in the region of £100K) and then staff it with a highly trained staff for production and distribution. Not to mention the red tape of setting up overseas factories and the like. GW will have enough trouble with the red tape on their local stores.

The only markets I can see GW opening up a dedicated factory for are America and China region factories. Ergo ones logistically a very long way away where the transport costs are significant and where a local production facility could result in long term savings and better stock provision with less pressure on their core factory. That said these are big costs and come with high risk. GW might well feel that its less risk for them to focus production in their Nottingham factory site where they've got it all under one roof and under direct control and then simply soak the transport costs.

Shipping is not expensive. It's literally cheaper to catch fish in Scotland, ship it to China for processing, then ship it back to Scotland, that's how cheap shipping is. Now, obviously if you're going to send everything via aircraft, that is expensive.

 Overread wrote:
Aye but in theory trade agreements outside of the EU for the UK shouldn't take 7 years to complete because it should just be two countries at the trade table. Such as in your example the UK and Canada. Trade with the EU might be more difficult and messy, but in the end there's so much trade going back and forth that there's reason for both sides to want to trade - its more just getting over the hump that is political posturing.

There's also a bit of an issue that we (the UK) don't really have any experienced trade negotiators, because we've not needed any for 40-odd years...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-48943551

Sunny Side Up wrote:

Kirby took a company losing money and turned it around.

He did a lot of weird stuff. The animosity towards customers, the weird secrecy obsession, etc., etc.. all true. But financially GW might well have crashed if Kirby hadn't come in at the time he did.

I think people overestimate the effect of Kirby on many of the things usually pinned on him. He was a chairman, not CEO (well he was CEO also briefly), of course as a chairman he was instrumental in choosing and hiring people and he probably had signifant effect on corporate culture. But he did not make most of the actual business decisions. As said, all the Kirby people are still in charge.

Despite all the doom & gloom in early 2010's, GW remained financially very healthy company at the time. They were not growing - and that was worrysome at the time for long-term future of the company - but they were not anywhere close on being in actual distress. Much maligned initial release of AoS was supposed to be death knell for the company, but actual numbers told that it did nothing on company's finances. It points to that WHFB was pretty much dead and GW was right to put it down and replace it with something fresher - anything.

What could take GW under in short-term is if someone much larger takes over the company, seeing strength of its IP and attempts to expand it to 'mainstream' without the institutional knowledge of the niche business GW has. Similar what happened with Rackham but in larger scale. It's a scenario often seen in niche businesses, outside investors see a company with 'potential', rush in, dump the money, take enormous risks, devalue the brand and fail miserably. But at least at the moment, GW is probably too big and expensive to be attractive for such financial adventurers.

Backfire wrote:
GW remained financially very healthy company at the time

Completely wrong. GW was "healthy" if you only look at the profit number every quarter, but the underlying foundation was in dangerously poor shape and the final profit number was a half-truth produced by accounting tricks. GW only got there through aggressive cost cutting and increasing prices to compensate for shrinking market share, both of which are unsustainable strategies. GW was about to be in a position where they were going to have to either make significant changes or face a net loss every quarter until bankruptcy. It's fortunate that GW seems to have turned things around quite a bit, but let's not pretend that there was never any danger just because they managed to make the right changes in time.

 Peregrine wrote:

Completely wrong. GW was "healthy" if you only look at the profit number every quarter, but the underlying foundation was in dangerously poor shape and the final profit number was a half-truth produced by accounting tricks. GW only got there through aggressive cost cutting and increasing prices to compensate for shrinking market share, both of which are unsustainable strategies. GW was about to be in a position where they were going to have to either make significant changes or face a net loss every quarter until bankruptcy. It's fortunate that GW seems to have turned things around quite a bit, but let's not pretend that there was never any danger just because they managed to make the right changes in time.

Nonsense. GW was nearly debtless, had healthy profit and decent cash reserves. It's true there were worrying signs and they had to make changes (most notably killing off WHFB as it existed), but much repeated claims how they were couple of years away from bankcrupcy - and funny how they were always "couple of years away [from collapse]" - were complete fantasy.

GW reports half-years, not quarters.

I don't know if I agree with some of the sentiments. Children(especially boys) will always want to play with plastic toy super soldiers..

Yes tech is giving young uns opportunity to waste time with tech, but I think its one of the reasons GW is not going anywhere any time soon. As long as they maintain a high street presence and high streets are a thing new generations will continue to walk past these shops and get hooked on awesome toy solidiers..

I would much rather my kids play with overpriced pieces of plastic and do something with their hands and use their imaginations than sit in their room for 12 hours playing some gakky FPS.

Backfire wrote:
Nonsense. GW was nearly debtless, had healthy profit and decent cash reserves. It's true there were worrying signs and they had to make changes (most notably killing off WHFB as it existed), but much repeated claims how they were couple of years away from bankcrupcy - and funny how they were always "couple of years away [from collapse]" - were complete fantasy.

GW reports half-years, not quarters.

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example. GW's profits were pretty small relative to their revenue, which means they weren't very far from those numbers going negative. And their overall trend was definitely downward, with failing sales being temporarily hidden by unsustainable cost cutting and price increases. There's a definite limit on how much you can cover a fall in revenue by closing retail stores to save money before you run out of things you can cut without causing catastrophic long-term damage. And once a game starts to fail it turns into a death spiral where losing players results in more of the remaining players and potential customers having nobody left to play with anymore, followed by those players dropping out and taking away the next wave of losses.

Would it have been a year or two? I don't know, nobody can predict it exactly. But it was definitely an alarming trend and it was quite plausible that GW could have been entering the first stages of the death spiral with another year or two of those trends continuing.

 Peregrine wrote:

Backfire wrote:
Nonsense. GW was nearly debtless, had healthy profit and decent cash reserves. It's true there were worrying signs and they had to make changes (most notably killing off WHFB as it existed), but much repeated claims how they were couple of years away from bankcrupcy - and funny how they were always "couple of years away [from collapse]" - were complete fantasy.

GW reports half-years, not quarters.

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example. GW's profits were pretty small relative to their revenue, which means they weren't very far from those numbers going negative. And their overall trend was definitely downward, with failing sales being temporarily hidden by unsustainable cost cutting and price increases. There's a definite limit on how much you can cover a fall in revenue by closing retail stores to save money before you run out of things you can cut without causing catastrophic long-term damage. And once a game starts to fail it turns into a death spiral where losing players results in more of the remaining players and potential customers having nobody left to play with anymore, followed by those players dropping out and taking away the next wave of losses.

Would it have been a year or two? I don't know, nobody can predict it exactly. But it was definitely an alarming trend and it was quite plausible that GW could have been entering the first stages of the death spiral with another year or two of those trends continuing.

Yes, possibly. The numbers were nothing like today. 10% profit, as it was, is really respectable. Still, speculating the demise is a pretty shaky stance to take when even with sales declines there was little to indicate they would turn unprofitable for quite some time.

Criticizing the mishandling of the games? Perfectly good. I couldn't say we'd be in the spot we are now without people who raised a stink.
Portending the doom of the company? A step too far into impotent rage.

And here we are - people worrying about doom when the numbers are spectacular. What justification is there now?

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Still, speculating the demise is a pretty shaky stance to take when even with sales declines there was little to indicate they would turn unprofitable for quite some time.

There really was. GW's profit margins at the time were small, and were getting worse. Remember, revenue and market share for their one remaining product were both declining, GW was just able to cut costs and raise prices enough to temporarily make up for those losses. A slight increase in the rate of losses or running out of things to cut would have resulted in a net loss for the company, and a failure with 8th edition could have killed the company almost overnight.

Portending the doom of the company? A step too far into impotent rage.

Hardly. Maybe some people were raging, but the majority of the discussion was calm and rational analysis of a company in trouble. Do you call it "impotent rage" when investment analysts look at a company in detail and recommend that you shouldn't invest money because the long-term prospects are worrying?

What justification is there now?

There isn't. And I've made it quite clear that I'm talking about GW's historical financial state, not the current situation.

You'd be hard pressed to find any financial institution recommending a sell position for any of their troubled period.

Racerguy180 wrote:

Ishagu wrote:I remember when a can of cola from a vending machine was 20 pence. Now its £1.50-2 depending on where you are.

Some things increase in price lots, some not so much - I don't feel GW are at an unreasonable price point.

It could be expensive if you're in a hurry to put together an army and make lots of purchases, that's true. Any initial start up to a hobby can have a high cost if unchecked.

2 quid for a freakin soda, man that's gotta blow.

The initial buy in for 40k isnt that big(hobby side alone), it's when you want to play bigger games that the costs go up. You can get many many hours out of painting a tac squad for relatively cheap.

agreed. part of the problem is the perception that you need a 2000 point army to play, but I bet a LOT of more casual players start with whats in a starter box and play with much smaller armies. This is proably WHY GW put the patrol detachment into the rule book, I bet they found that a lotta casual players are happy to play with just the startr box contents and 1 or two "cool" additional boxes.

Well a starter, a unit or two and then a unit here and there as seen fit is the way I usually it done.

To me, GW seem to be doing very well and are very unlikely to crash.
They've made several really important positive changes.
1. As noted above, they have made getting into the game much easier with Start Collecting kits which are good value and exist for pretty much every faction. I love these kits, and it is tempting to buy one for every faction just to have the models! They also made the rules available for free online, which is huge. Kids nowadays expect to be able to get stuff like that online for free, in an app if not in PDF form.
2. They modernised the core rules. It is not my cup of tea but it is obvious that it is extremely popular and I cannot remember this volume of positive feedback for any edition of their rules.The release of Indices putting most armies on a roughly level playing field with lists that were designed on the same principles is also a great move that should be done every edition.
3. They are releasing a lot of really cool stuff that veterans wanted for years. Mechanicus, Genestealer Cults, Blackstone Fortress - this is all stuff old farts get excited about. New Sisters too, finally. Who can be unhappy about that?

The net result is recruiting more new players, and drawing back in veterans and giving them something to be excited about. And it has worked - Warmachine got eaten by 40K 8th.

Are there problems? Yeah absolutely. I think the fiction is not as good as it used to be, but I consider that a pretty minor thing and if you are a new fan, you probably do not care at all.
I also think the way they release the rules over the edition is super fragmented and chaotic, and trying to figure out what you need to have to play a "full" game is very annoying. But ultimately I think people who do not like that will just play with indices or whatever extra stuff they buy, it is only hardcore weirdos like me that feel we need to own all the rules to have a complete view of the system. I dislike this chaotic piecemeal approach to design and I think the last improvement I would like to see GW make is really to tighten that up and get a proper release channel for rules material and a coherent way to manage it all, perhaps digitally but honestly I would prefer a physical book. And lastly, messing around with base sizes and scale creep are intensely annoying to me and I think pretty damn inconsiderate of GW when done on a large scale, but I think that is just my own pet peeve.

But if I think back to a few years ago I had zero interest in 40K, was thinking about selling my models. Now I am interested again, looking at stuff I might like to buy, looking at making terrain and getting gaming again with GDF. And if my newbie group really like it, it is probable that we will try 8th edition in some form too. I never thought that would happen, and either way GW is winning, because I am back buying their models. Surely this story is true for lots of jaded veterans?

I certainly hope it doesn’t crash. Its games are one of the cornerstones of my life, and I’d say 80-90% of all the friends I’ve ever had have been meet through the hobby.

Plus it’s one of the few British manufacturing success stories there are so that’s something to be proud of too.

 Peregrine wrote:

Backfire wrote:
Nonsense. GW was nearly debtless, had healthy profit and decent cash reserves. It's true there were worrying signs and they had to make changes (most notably killing off WHFB as it existed), but much repeated claims how they were couple of years away from bankcrupcy - and funny how they were always "couple of years away [from collapse]" - were complete fantasy.

GW reports half-years, not quarters.

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example. GW's profits were pretty small relative to their revenue, which means they weren't very far from those numbers going negative. And their overall trend was definitely downward, with failing sales being temporarily hidden by unsustainable cost cutting and price increases. There's a definite limit on how much you can cover a fall in revenue by closing retail stores to save money before you run out of things you can cut without causing catastrophic long-term damage. And once a game starts to fail it turns into a death spiral where losing players results in more of the remaining players and potential customers having nobody left to play with anymore, followed by those players dropping out and taking away the next wave of losses.

Would it have been a year or two? I don't know, nobody can predict it exactly. But it was definitely an alarming trend and it was quite plausible that GW could have been entering the first stages of the death spiral with another year or two of those trends continuing.

TSR continues to be an interesting case where the person in charge didn't care for the company, and was using it to maximize profits towards a different license because they gained maximium value from it.. TSR is a case where a lot of spite came into play. Learning the history about it is interesting though.

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

They're a luxury purchase. They'll tank when the economy tanks. When the economy is good, they'll do well. WoW is 10 quid a month. 4 months buys you those 3 Zoanthropes, and will last longer. I keep seeing people talking about kids being priced out of the hobby, but they're not. Give them an Army box at Christmas, a few goodies on their birthday, and however parents subsidize their entertainment the rest of the year, and WoW isn't more expensive than other hobbies they could be into.

Breton wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

They're a luxury purchase. They'll tank when the economy tanks. When the economy is good, they'll do well. WoW is 10 quid a month. 4 months buys you those 3 Zoanthropes, and will last longer. I keep seeing people talking about kids being priced out of the hobby, but they're not. Give them an Army box at Christmas, a few goodies on their birthday, and however parents subsidize their entertainment the rest of the year, and WoW isn't more expensive than other hobbies they could be into.

There is also the fact that the average age of the person I play with or see interested in the hobby is definitely around 25-35, not "kids."

As an adult hobby, 40k is not prohibitively expensive to get into. Plenty of other hobbies require multiple hundred dollar, even thousand dollar, buy-ins to start, and a lot of what GW has done recently is trying to lower that bar with the continuous release of discounted bundle boxes. To the point now where I just have to shake my head and laugh when we get a player that thinks they're super cunning by ebaying used models to get started - you can get the baseline kits you need to build most armies at a 35-40% discount with the discount we get from the store we play at, just by buying bundle boxes.

the_scotsman wrote:

As an adult hobby, 40k is not prohibitively expensive to get into. Plenty of other hobbies require multiple hundred dollar, even thousand dollar, buy-ins to start, and a lot of what GW has done recently is trying to lower that bar with the continuous release of discounted bundle boxes. To the point now where I just have to shake my head and laugh when we get a player that thinks they're super cunning by ebaying used models to get started - you can get the baseline kits you need to build most armies at a 35-40% discount with the discount we get from the store we play at, just by buying bundle boxes.

Quite. One of my friends (who recently turned 50) scuba dives, goes clay pigeon shooting, has a hobby motorbike and sports car, and has just started learning to fly. I can't afford to get involved with any of them, let alone all of them... 40K in comparison is cheap.

Breton wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

They're a luxury purchase. They'll tank when the economy tanks. When the economy is good, they'll do well. WoW is 10 quid a month. 4 months buys you those 3 Zoanthropes, and will last longer. I keep seeing people talking about kids being priced out of the hobby, but they're not. Give them an Army box at Christmas, a few goodies on their birthday, and however parents subsidize their entertainment the rest of the year, and WoW isn't more expensive than other hobbies they could be into.

On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Crispy78 wrote:

the_scotsman wrote:

As an adult hobby, 40k is not prohibitively expensive to get into. Plenty of other hobbies require multiple hundred dollar, even thousand dollar, buy-ins to start, and a lot of what GW has done recently is trying to lower that bar with the continuous release of discounted bundle boxes. To the point now where I just have to shake my head and laugh when we get a player that thinks they're super cunning by ebaying used models to get started - you can get the baseline kits you need to build most armies at a 35-40% discount with the discount we get from the store we play at, just by buying bundle boxes.

Quite. One of my friends (who recently turned 50) scuba dives, goes clay pigeon shooting, has a hobby motorbike and sports car, and has just started learning to fly. I can't afford to get involved with any of them, let alone all of them... 40K in comparison is cheap.

Even something as simple as photography can cost a few hundred just to get a decent camera (not even a DSLR), memory card and other accessories.

Meanwhile consoles for kids are easily the cost of a 2K army if not more (esp when the console is new); whilst the games are easily a box of models each. Some of the AAA titles are now £60 or more at launch - that's a huge GW model or two boxes of troops.

I will say that some areas GW hasn't improved on in pricing is that in the past there were a lot more blisters which were far more affordable. However we've seen things like zoanthropes go from individual sales to a duel kit trio sale. So I think where GW has lost a bit is in "cheaper" gift style additions to armies. They've tried to make up for it with some of the 6(or so) man troop sprues; however I think the problem is that they don't really "work" in the game itself. A cheap addition that isn't really going to work well on its own for many armies and are not as interesting as a proper box of troops (no alternate parts or weapons etc...)

 Overread wrote:

Breton wrote:

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

They're a luxury purchase. They'll tank when the economy tanks. When the economy is good, they'll do well. WoW is 10 quid a month. 4 months buys you those 3 Zoanthropes, and will last longer. I keep seeing people talking about kids being priced out of the hobby, but they're not. Give them an Army box at Christmas, a few goodies on their birthday, and however parents subsidize their entertainment the rest of the year, and WoW isn't more expensive than other hobbies they could be into.

On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Crispy78 wrote:

the_scotsman wrote:

As an adult hobby, 40k is not prohibitively expensive to get into. Plenty of other hobbies require multiple hundred dollar, even thousand dollar, buy-ins to start, and a lot of what GW has done recently is trying to lower that bar with the continuous release of discounted bundle boxes. To the point now where I just have to shake my head and laugh when we get a player that thinks they're super cunning by ebaying used models to get started - you can get the baseline kits you need to build most armies at a 35-40% discount with the discount we get from the store we play at, just by buying bundle boxes.

Quite. One of my friends (who recently turned 50) scuba dives, goes clay pigeon shooting, has a hobby motorbike and sports car, and has just started learning to fly. I can't afford to get involved with any of them, let alone all of them... 40K in comparison is cheap.

Even something as simple as photography can cost a few hundred just to get a decent camera (not even a DSLR), memory card and other accessories.

Meanwhile consoles for kids are easily the cost of a 2K army if not more (esp when the console is new); whilst the games are easily a box of models each. Some of the AAA titles are now £60 or more at launch - that's a huge GW model or two boxes of troops.

I will say that some areas GW hasn't improved on in pricing is that in the past there were a lot more blisters which were far more affordable. However we've seen things like zoanthropes go from individual sales to a duel kit trio sale. So I think where GW has lost a bit is in "cheaper" gift style additions to armies. They've tried to make up for it with some of the 6(or so) man troop sprues; however I think the problem is that they don't really "work" in the game itself. A cheap addition that isn't really going to work well on its own for many armies and are not as interesting as a proper box of troops (no alternate parts or weapons etc...)

40k can be far more expensive than Console/pc gaming it depends on the 2k army when the last price rises happened and you had these comments all over I priced up one of the armies used in a WD battle report. It was a narrative game using pp so as far as I could tell it was pretty gak gsc list that came to about 1350pts and cost around £780.
So basicly a top of the line console and half a dozen games or a basic gaming pc. If you took it to 2000pts you could have a ps4,xbox 1 and a switch and a couple of games or a high end gaming pc. Best of all with the consoles/pc you have something that retains its value and if you get bored you can sell or trade in and get a reasonable return where a 2000pt army once the boxes are opened you will be lucky to get the cost of the raw plastic back unless your a GD level painter.

So what I am basicly saying is there is no comparison with console gaming that in reality does not make collecting a GW army look horrifically expensive for what you get.

 Overread wrote:


On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.

At least we can still play Warhammer when the lights go out! Well..during the daytime anyway.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 Overread wrote:


On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.

At least we can still play Warhammer when the lights go out! Well..during the daytime anyway.

Flashlights and Candles help the issue at night.

However, I want to remind you that 40k costs your time, it costs your money, it costs your life (wife).

On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.

I think that this maybe true only in rich countries. When we had a down turn in the 80s, there was no food at stores. I doubt anyone then who wasn't ultra rich party member had the option to do any hobbies. They even run out of alcohol, which is an unimaginable thing to happen.

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

Honestly that post made me laugh. The idea that a child getting into the hobby is going to go into the store and the first thing they buy is a box of Zoanthropes and if they are too expensive the child is lost to the hobby

Start collecting sets are where its at for kids starting out in the hobby. Start collecting sets are well in the gift price bracket for the majority of parents and the bigger box sets are there for bigger gifts for Xmas and the like. The more expensive kits you mention are for filling in the odd gaps in an army, adding a bit of spice etc. It is only adults with more money than sense that think you build a whole army that way.

Does your average 13 year old need every possible book/supplement etc to tweak out that last bit of list efficiency with some obscure and expensive model in their codex? Nope.

I think the question is less how long until GW crashes more how long until they are forced to evolve. Models and books being prohibitively expensive is going to keep younger players and parents away from the game.

I can say at the FLGS there are consistantly tons of kids looking at the game and wanting to play. often i will rlet them run little games with my models against eachother telling them the rules. 9/10 times the parents look interested until the look at the price of models. when i started playing (2002ish) parents would often buy their kids a box of space marines or something (~$20ish). Now they just see the price ($50ish per box) and say maybe they can come back and try later or they cna save thier allowance etc.. Note a lot of those kids from the early 200's still play and have armies but we are getting a lot less new blood in our area.

with 3d printing becomign a thing GW is going to have a hard time with other games and/or people playign thier games with other minis. for the cost of 4 interceptor marine boxes I can buy a resin printer that will churn out tactical squads with the same level of detail as GW models. GW will either become a rules company that also sells some models to people who cannot be bothered to 3d print, or lower prices to lower the incentive to 3d print minis. if I can buy an army for what it costs for a 3d printer and only want one army then... well why bother with the printer.

Worse case thier audience is so varied and big they could probably launch a subscription based rule set via an app and literally just make tons of money on a digital access to codexes and rulebooks for a flat monthly fee.

I still think they could do their rulebooks for free (especially CA, I mean come on. I gotta spend MORE money for your balance patch?!) and then the 50 dollar pricetag for a "start collection" box won't seem so bad when you ain't gotta spend another 60 bucks or more for books too.

Karol wrote:

On the economy front I've often heard it said that hobbies often do better during economic downturns, comparatively speaking, than some other markets. The justification being that the worse things get the more people look toward escapism and hobbies. I suspect also that when the economy takes a downturn it becomes less attractive to make savings and thus people get more likely to spend rather than save. Of course all this is relative, if the economy tanks enough then everything will suffer without question and a catastrophic collapse can kill off everything except the most essential services and supplies (and even they can come under heavy pressure). So its all relative.

I think that this maybe true only in rich countries. When we had a down turn in the 80s, there was no food at stores. I doubt anyone then who wasn't ultra rich party member had the option to do any hobbies. They even run out of alcohol, which is an unimaginable thing to happen.

To be fair, a downturn in a free market economy isn't going to be the same as a downturn in a centrally planned economy.

 flandarz wrote:
I still think they could do their rulebooks for free (especially CA, I mean come on. I gotta spend MORE money for your balance patch?!) and then the 50 dollar pricetag for a "start collection" box won't seem so bad when you ain't gotta spend another 60 bucks or more for books too.

It becomes even more expensive these days if you want to play say UM or WS.
You need two codices and two sets of cards, which are in toto 100 bucks.

 wuestenfux wrote:

 flandarz wrote:
I still think they could do their rulebooks for free (especially CA, I mean come on. I gotta spend MORE money for your balance patch?!) and then the 50 dollar pricetag for a "start collection" box won't seem so bad when you ain't gotta spend another 60 bucks or more for books too.

It becomes even more expensive these days if you want to play say UM or WS.
You need two codices and two sets of cards, which are in toto 100 bucks.

Does a kid starting out in the hobby need all that? I'm scratching my head why I would need any sets of cards (much less two sets) and I could easily afford them if I wanted to.

I think there is a huge disconnect between what I saw from youngsters entering the hobby (while i was helping a group towards the Schools League) and what people think kids need to be doing on this thread.

I just assume they'll need 1) a start collecting box, 2) the base rules 3) a codex for their army.

I ain't including any soup requirements, cards, paints, glue, extra minis for some variety, or even CA. That right there will easily break a hundred bucks or even two. And we ARE talking kids here. How many kids got a couple hundred bucks burning a hole in their pocket?

Even their parents may not have that kinda spare money to throw at a hobby their kid may not even end up enjoying. As has been stated, 40k is very "front heavy" when it comes to costs, so (as a parent of 5 myself) I'd want to be certain it'd be a hobby that would hold my kids' attention. Especially once you get into assembly and painting, which require a lot of time and patience.

 flandarz wrote:
I just assume they'll need 1) a start collecting box, 2) the base rules 3) a codex for their army.

I ain't including any soup requirements, cards, paints, glue, extra minis for some variety, or even CA. That right there will easily break a hundred bucks or even two. And we ARE talking kids here. How many kids got a couple hundred bucks burning a hole in their pocket?

Even their parents may not have that kinda spare money to throw at a hobby their kid may not even end up enjoying. As has been stated, 40k is very "front heavy" when it comes to costs, so (as a parent of 5 myself) I'd want to be certain it'd be a hobby that would hold my kids' attention. Especially once you get into assembly and painting, which require a lot of time and patience.

PLease remember the FAQ.

The kids down my local GW don’t seem to have any issue affording it. I think their parents see it as a Saturday morning child minding session. They’re probably happy to leave little Timmy with £25 to buy a squad and spend a few hours putting it together while they bob over to supermarkets or do other shopping.

From what I’ve seen, I doubt many of the kids there are playing big point games, or even at all. I think most of them just like the figures and social aspect of it. It’s always people in their lates teens up who are playing games on the tables. The kids just glue stuff together, slap paint on models, bother the manager to help them, and generally make a mess. That said, there can easily be a dozen kids in there on a Saturday morning, all with models in front of them.

 flandarz wrote:
I just assume they'll need 1) a start collecting box, 2) the base rules 3) a codex for their army.

I ain't including any soup requirements, cards, paints, glue, extra minis for some variety, or even CA. That right there will easily break a hundred bucks or even two. And we ARE talking kids here. How many kids got a couple hundred bucks burning a hole in their pocket?

Even their parents may not have that kinda spare money to throw at a hobby their kid may not even end up enjoying. As has been stated, 40k is very "front heavy" when it comes to costs, so (as a parent of 5 myself) I'd want to be certain it'd be a hobby that would hold my kids' attention. Especially once you get into assembly and painting, which require a lot of time and patience.

The usual starting point is Know no Fear or Dark Imperium. Split between two kids as often as not.

If they get hooked then a way down the line you may be into a new codex and a new start collecting as they switch to a faction they love more. That is after they have already got play value out of that first kit - and probably started overcoming mum reluctance with a bit of hobby. I have certainly seen reluctant mothers warming to 40K through the whole painting/hobby side and the extent to which the GW stores encourage/support it shows that GW know it too.

It certainly costs money but then anything you are buying your kids for Xmas or birthdays tend to cost money and this is very much in the ballpark for middle-income families in most affluent countries.

Like I said earlier - thinking that buying expensive Zoanthrope boxes along with multiple codexes and all the supplements because each has one rule that might improve your soup army is relevant to kids is well wide of the mark. That is not how kids typically get into the hobby so the cost of that is very nearly irrelevant to whether GW continues to get kids into the hobby.

yea the games as a starting point are good as they give a starting point and often 2 armies. I have seen dark imperium and wake the dead sold for that reason. the included scenarios and data sheets mean they are literally everything you need in a box.

I didn't include the FAQs/Erratas, because they're free.

I don't know if I'd consider little Timmy's babysitting session as "getting into the hobby", and more than I'd consider successfully making yourself a bowl of cereal "getting into cooking".

Like I said, I'm not saying 40k is prohibitively expensive. I just feel like it'd be far less daunting to the average consumer if GW just offered their rules for free (in PDF form).

 Peregrine wrote:

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example.

Naturally with terrible leadership you can take anything under. But GW was not doing any of the things which took TSR under in the '90s. TSR was selling tons of stuff, but they were investing so much to make new products that their profits were never really great, as far as I can tell.

 Peregrine wrote:

GW's profits were pretty small relative to their revenue, which means they weren't very far from those numbers going negative.

Financial year 2015-2016, first full year after release of AoS, saw their revenue drop to £118 million. It was their lowest revenue since the LOTR bubble burst decade earlier. That year they posted net profits of 16.86 million pounds. That is profit margin of almost 15%, excellent by any measure.

 Peregrine wrote:

And once a game starts to fail it turns into a death spiral where losing players results in more of the remaining players and potential customers having nobody left to play with anymore, followed by those players dropping out and taking away the next wave of losses.

Of course any company which so greatly relies on one product line (WH40k in case of GW) is always going to be vulnerable. If next iPhone models flops horribly, it is going to be a disaster for Apple.
However historically, spectacular crashes of formerly successful companies have usually been result of banking heavily on growth which failed to materialize, then suddenly finding itself with tons of liabilities and not much in way of liquid assets. That hardly describes what GW has been doing in the last 15 or so years.

Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

feth knows. I’m trying to figure out this attitude too.

At my FLGS I see kids all the time and about 50% of them are doing something GW related(AOS,40K & whatever the sos card game is).

When I go to my local GW on a weekend kids probably outnumber adults 2-3:1. almost all of the kids are AOS players & 75% of the adults are 40k so there is a differentiation in whom is playing which system.

At this point GW really would need to screw the pooch in order to be in trouble.

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

I don't want them to fail. I do expect some things to influence them significantly especially the availability and cheapness of 3d printing.

I imagine that things like battlescribe being available has affected book sales. I know several people who own a rule book but no codexes as they only use the app. (personally i like the books to read the fluff and see pretty models)

outside of that there is always the threat that they lose fans as the continue to squat older kits or rather vault them as "legacy models" with rules not recommended for match play. In mot metas not recommended for match play / open play only means nobody will play against it. Personally i find it annoying that a lot of my ork conversions are no longer considered to really be viable unless they are new buggis that they do not match of trukks/ battelwagon counts as.

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

Some FLGS are great at encouraging the youngsters in, others are terrible at it[1]. The GW stores I have been to are universally pretty good at it and it is *really* obvious that this is a part of the training they give to store managers. I honestly think that a big part of the reason that GW keep their relatively unprofitable store presence - and why GW are still around when supposedly better game companies have come and gone - is their emphasis on getting young people into the hobby in their own stores. That is good for the entire hobby not just for the GW part of it.

[1] That goes double for girl gamers. Really, some FLGS should be ashamed.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 flandarz wrote:
I didn't include the FAQs/Erratas, because they're free.

I don't know if I'd consider little Timmy's babysitting session as "getting into the hobby", and more than I'd consider successfully making yourself a bowl of cereal "getting into cooking".

Pretty much every week I see "Look at this first painted model" on the FB page of my local GW store. That right there is hobby and the positive buzz that kid gets from the feedback it is a big part of what makes GW work. I'm sure they are not up to your lofty hobby standards but I am even more sure that they don't care and it doesn't matter.

My 5yo nephew loves the Warhammer store and his little brother is almost there(in terms of wanting to go there).

Backfire wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example.

Naturally with terrible leadership you can take anything under. But GW was not doing any of the things which took TSR under in the '90s. TSR was selling tons of stuff, but they were investing so much to make new products that their profits were never really great, as far as I can tell.

The leader at that time also ensured that there was no playtesting, used TSR to print Buck Rogers stuff because they inherited the license and thus gained a personal share of the money for it, tried to cash in on MTG... Honestly, it was a lot of things that was did that caused TSR to fail, and a number of it was greed and inability to lead, and it generally goes to the leadership at that time.

Games Workshop, like any business, is not immune to anything.

Right now they're riding a high, and enjoying life while it's good. They're alienating plenty of customers, but generating more new ones - so it's a net positive. Plenty of money is coming in, and they're pushing the boundaries of pricing, allowing huge financial gains.

What they've never faced (though they did shortly) was another company going after the same product design as them. Privateer Press came closest of all the others, but even that paled in comparison. They later changed focus, gaming materials, etc. Mantic is another large company but they've stuck to their "cheap gaming" mantra and it continues to show.

Games Workshop can fail, just as any company. I doubt they'd have anything that could cause them to tank immediately and close up shop, but they could easily slide back down the scale quite a bit with a few bad choices. They're operating in, more or less, a vacuum the likes of which any other business in the world would envy. They have a strong IP, zero real competition, and a dedicated fan base which allows them to price things according to "whatever someone will pay". It's the best position a brand can be in really; literally printing money.

 flandarz wrote:
I didn't include the FAQs/Erratas, because they're free.

I don't know if I'd consider little Timmy's babysitting session as "getting into the hobby", and more than I'd consider successfully making yourself a bowl of cereal "getting into cooking".

Like I said, I'm not saying 40k is prohibitively expensive. I just feel like it'd be far less daunting to the average consumer if GW just offered their rules for free (in PDF form).

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

Considering you made the example, you might want to read it again. But, here it is, in a nutshell: "parents buy a $25 squad and leave their kid at the game shop so they can go shopping hassle-free." If you consider that "getting into the hobby", then perhaps I'm getting into hiking because I walk from my front door to the car every morning.

But, the example you JUST said is fine. Because it shows actual interest in 40k. That's my "bar" for getting into the hobby: being interested in it. Because, in your original example, that kid seems like he'd have been just as happy with popsicle sticks, glue, and crayons.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
So, since you guys apparently misunderstood, let me spell it out for you: I'm no hobby elitist. But saying "Little Timmy splashing paint, squirting glue, and bothering the manager" isn't an indicator of interest in the hobby. It's an indicator of a normal kid who just had any sort of craft put in front of them. If the kid has actual interest in 40k, then sure. They're getting into the hobby. But if I get my kids to clean up their room, I ain't going around saying "my kids LOVE to clean."

phillv85 wrote:

 flandarz wrote:
I didn't include the FAQs/Erratas, because they're free.

I don't know if I'd consider little Timmy's babysitting session as "getting into the hobby", and more than I'd consider successfully making yourself a bowl of cereal "getting into cooking".

Like I said, I'm not saying 40k is prohibitively expensive. I just feel like it'd be far less daunting to the average consumer if GW just offered their rules for free (in PDF form).

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

A box of troops? Or the paint set that comes with models if they still do these?
Which is what GW staff would sell to a kid who comes in with their parents for the first time...

Me? They will try to sell me the Eldar battleforce and a bundle of paintbrushes plus their mothers...

I think people see GW in different light depending on where they are based. In the UK GW store has had the stalwart presence for decades and this is responsible for fuelling a lot of the UK business.

Also, there are kids rolling around my (working class low income)neighbourhood with Iphones worth twice what my Samsung S5 is worth...
Yes any kids from a poor family that's on the breadline will be priced out of getting involved. But they will be priced out of life in general so its not something GW needs to worry about as its not their market.
I don't understand why people insist GW is expensive.. Its a luxury product. Its not essential and therefore cannot be expensive as you can simply.. not buy it.

Those upper middle class families who drop their kids off every week for them to play with their toy solidiers? The professionals with decent amount of disposable income?
They can afford £30 (that's like one meal out at the pub...) for a new box of stuff every other week no problem. Then take into account big ones like birthday and Christmas where families drop couple 100s of ££/$$ on their kids.

To put it into a perspective my local showcase charges about £15 for a ticket and then you are looking to spend say another £12 for foodstuffs - popcorn drink etc. and that's with being pretty tight and not taking into account the option of work around (I.E. bringing in supplies from a supermarket). So as a parent you are looking at something like £40-50 for you and your child to go see a movie for 2 hours.

How can GW products be considered expensive in comparison??

The pricing aspect being responsible for GW to fail overnight because people move away from the hobby whole sale just doesn't really add up. They'd have to start charging £500 for a single space marine..
The only thing I can imagine making it tank, is a sudden rise in competition on the highstreets ripping out a crippling chunk of their market. Which I just don't see happening.

 flandarz wrote:
Considering you made the example, you might want to read it again. But, here it is, in a nutshell: "parents buy a $25 squad and leave their kid at the game shop so they can go shopping hassle-free." If you consider that "getting into the hobby", then perhaps I'm getting into hiking because I walk from my front door to the car every morning.

But, the example you JUST said is fine. Because it shows actual interest in 40k. That's my "bar" for getting into the hobby: being interested in it. Because, in your original example, that kid seems like he'd have been just as happy with popsicle sticks, glue, and crayons.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
So, since you guys apparently misunderstood, let me spell it out for you: I'm no hobby elitist. But saying "Little Timmy splashing paint, squirting glue, and bothering the manager" isn't an indicator of interest in the hobby. It's an indicator of a normal kid who just had any sort of craft put in front of them. If the kid has actual interest in 40k, then sure. They're getting into the hobby. But if I get my kids to clean up their room, I ain't going around saying "my kids LOVE to clean."

I think you're picking at semantics. Also you're overlooking that not everyone gets into a hobby the same way. Sometimes you get into a hobby with a burning passion for part of or all of the hobby and what it entails. Other times it might be babysteps and it might not even be your own idea.

Timmy being left at the store with a box of minis and splashing some paint on might not be "into the hobby" in that moment; he's just into the art and craft and such. But lets say that happens every few weeks and he enjoys it. The store manager and other gamers encourage him and help him along; he turns from putting together a few minis and slapping paint on into playing a game (probably using the store codex and the opponents rulebook as the opponent helps teach them how to play - see they don't even need to buy any rules to get started). Before they know it they ARE into the hobby.

Everyone has different ways they got into it - friends, family, other gamers, school teachers (hobby clubs), TV, books etc... I think as we become older we become more aware of how those things can influence us whilst when we were kids many of those things (often not in isolation) might have influenced us without us really being aware (or if we were we've forgotten it now).



In the end this is all mostly boiling down to "what counts as a gamer" and in that there's a huge myriad of things.

Sumilidon wrote:
So GW has had a few bumper years of success recently with higher sales, popularity and new and interesting products which they have certainly been pushing hard - eg contrast.

At the same time, they have also made the "main" hobby much more expensive, with price rises, re-do of codexes and the general bloat of rules and books they like so much. So much so, that to me it seems they will inevitably crash as the game starts to further enter the realm of "prohibitively expensive".

My best example of this is for children. You want a game to continue as long as GW has - you need to get kids playing it. They then get others, turn into adults and have more disposable income. Realistically however, which kid can afford it these days?

3 Zoanthropes for example - £40. Barely even a squad
Repulser = £50
Primaris Librarian = £22.55

It's little wonder profit went through the roof, but have they made it too expensive for kids (or notably the parents of kids who don't play the game themselves).

If so, how long does it take to crash? Either through a generation problem or 1 major upset down the line that turns people away or has them revisit what they liked about the hobby

We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

And that's fine. My bar for "getting into the hobby" is actually very low. I don't even think you need your own books, or models, or anything. Having interest IN the hobby is sufficient to me. Doesn't seem too elitist to me.

Like I said, my argument was entirely based on the assertion that leaving your kid with no other option for entertainment than to build and paint minis and calling it "getting into the hobby" isn't... well, good. In a lot of ways.

 ZebioLizard2 wrote:

Backfire wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example.

Naturally with terrible leadership you can take anything under. But GW was not doing any of the things which took TSR under in the '90s. TSR was selling tons of stuff, but they were investing so much to make new products that their profits were never really great, as far as I can tell.

The leader at that time also ensured that there was no playtesting, used TSR to print Buck Rogers stuff because they inherited the license and thus gained a personal share of the money for it, tried to cash in on MTG... Honestly, it was a lot of things that was did that caused TSR to fail, and a number of it was greed and inability to lead, and it generally goes to the leadership at that time.

Seriously? You're holding that against them? EVEYBODY tried to cash in on MTG. Some succeeded to varying degrees. Many failed. Some, like TSR, just failed more spectacularly.

Most of TSR's problem was leadership, but they were also producing a lot of product that _didn't_ sell. They had warehouses full of increasing obscure and terrible gak that they churned out, paid writers for, paid storage for and...it sat there.

They also pretty much ignored the RPG genre and market shifting around them, thinking that as the 'leader,' they defined it.


While I don't care for a lot of current GW products, they're definitely trying to stay relevant to shifting tastes, and even changes in game design and formats. [Shadespire,etc as quick self contained games and model ranges is kind of mindblowing coming from GW]

 Togusa wrote:


We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

I'm not on the Schools League mailing list any more but for the years that I was they ran the gamut of ~500 to ~700 points until they switched entirely to Kill Team. It was always achievable money for kids from middle income families, still is.

That is where I got most of my impressions of how kids really get into the hobby rather than how someone on Dakka imagines they do. Nice to see a bit of reality creeping into this discussion at last.

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

This is the same here.
No kids but older guys, mainly 20 to 45, pushing around toy soldiers, mostly 40K, sometimes AoS.

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 Togusa wrote:


We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

I'm not on the Schools League mailing list any more but for the years that I was they ran the gamut of ~500 to ~700 points until they switched entirely to Kill Team. It was always achievable money for kids from middle income families, still is.

That is where I got most of my impressions of how kids really get into the hobby rather than how someone on Dakka imagines they do. Nice to see a bit of reality creeping into this discussion at last.

I think kill team is great for this I think honestly the price if you want to get into the hobby is still within boundary that is feasible. Its the rules i think that really push it up here, $100 for a box of primaris is expencive, but can be sold as a experience for the child to there parents as well. Good hobby that gets them doing creative stuff, Its when you also try and sell that $70 book on top, and that is not all they need.

 wuestenfux wrote:

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

This is the same here.
No kids but older guys, mainly 20 to 45, pushing around toy soldiers, mostly 40K, sometimes AoS.

I guess we're lucky (?). At my local shop we do have kids (high school students, the 15-18 range) playing things. More in the summer months for obvious reasons.

Mostly PF or various RPGs - because of the fairly low entry costs to RPGs. Some Magic/other card games, & a few are picking up board games.

There's one boy (about 17?) who clearly plays Skaven somewhere, but not at the shop. He does know a great deal about them.

And over the years we've had several kids join us "old guys" in playing Flames of War (WWII).
We'd also get younger players for Heroclix. But then about 3 years ago that game just evaporated in my area.

But most of the minis gaming is done by the 20something - 50 range.

MAN I forgot about Heroclix. That theoretically had a lot going for it and it suddenly disappeared about 2015-2016 in my area.

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

I think there are a ton of kids who get their first box of Warhammer, play with it, and then leave the hobby only to return a decade or more later when they have the disposable income to enjoy the hobby.

Regarding that strange sentiment people have about GW failing I think it has something to do with people being entitled in a way. If GW doesn't do what they(those individuals) want to perfection then GW should die horribly. That's at least what I get from those sentiments.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
MAN I forgot about Heroclix. That theoretically had a lot going for it and it suddenly disappeared about 2015-2016 in my area.

Kids tend to be more fickle when it comes to hobbies. Doesn't help that WizKids are the people managing Heroclix and that is a company I will never understand. I tried getting into Star Trek Attack Wing and the only place I could somewhat reliable buy the newest models was off ebay whereas with X-Wing I could just jump into my FLGS and get started.

I see a bunch of people are confusing "how I choose to play 40K" with "the only way to play 40K" again. The barrier to entry is lower than arguably ever before – get one of the smaller starter sets, or just a box of models each for you and your mate, and the free battle primer, and you're good to go with the basic game. Everything else – codices, detachments, datacards, etc etc – is stuff that can *optionally* be stacked up on top of that basic ruleset, no matter how "essential" you or I may feel like it is.

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

ccs wrote:

 ZebioLizard2 wrote:

Backfire wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

You'd be surprised how fast a company can go from "debtless and cash reserves" to "gone". See the history of TSR for a very relevant example.

Naturally with terrible leadership you can take anything under. But GW was not doing any of the things which took TSR under in the '90s. TSR was selling tons of stuff, but they were investing so much to make new products that their profits were never really great, as far as I can tell.

The leader at that time also ensured that there was no playtesting, used TSR to print Buck Rogers stuff because they inherited the license and thus gained a personal share of the money for it, tried to cash in on MTG... Honestly, it was a lot of things that was did that caused TSR to fail, and a number of it was greed and inability to lead, and it generally goes to the leadership at that time.

Seriously? You're holding that against them? EVEYBODY tried to cash in on MTG. Some succeeded to varying degrees. Many failed. Some, like TSR, just failed more spectacularly.

I'm holding it against them because it was one of the issues they failed spectacularly at. Mostly because of that whole "Not allowing playtesting thing", and being an RPG company first and foremost that tried jumping into a new field that had no experience in it at all.

 Elbows wrote:
Games Workshop, like any business, is not immune to anything.

Right now they're riding a high, and enjoying life while it's good. They're alienating plenty of customers, but generating more new ones - so it's a net positive. Plenty of money is coming in, and they're pushing the boundaries of pricing, allowing huge financial gains.

What they've never faced (though they did shortly) was another company going after the same product design as them. Privateer Press came closest of all the others, but even that paled in comparison. They later changed focus, gaming materials, etc. Mantic is another large company but they've stuck to their "cheap gaming" mantra and it continues to show.

GW has lots of fans who are interested primarily in Warhammer, not necessarily miniature wargames in general. This does not make them immune to competition but does provide sort of safe space.
Some people have said that Star Wars miniature game would put GW out of business, but I don't think it would happen. I don't think Star Wars is a setting that well suited for tabletop wargames, though X-Wing is popular and does somewhat compete from same customers.

I don't think GW is going to crash spectacularly. If and when they die off, it will be 'with a whimper', a slow decade-long struggle with the fanbase aging and customer tastes changing, with maybe some poor or unlucky management decisions thrown in to get the ball rolling faster.

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 wuestenfux wrote:

 flandarz wrote:
I still think they could do their rulebooks for free (especially CA, I mean come on. I gotta spend MORE money for your balance patch?!) and then the 50 dollar pricetag for a "start collection" box won't seem so bad when you ain't gotta spend another 60 bucks or more for books too.

It becomes even more expensive these days if you want to play say UM or WS.
You need two codices and two sets of cards, which are in toto 100 bucks.

Does a kid starting out in the hobby need all that? I'm scratching my head why I would need any sets of cards (much less two sets) and I could easily afford them if I wanted to.

I think there is a huge disconnect between what I saw from youngsters entering the hobby (while i was helping a group towards the Schools League) and what people think kids need to be doing on this thread.

yeah people seem to think that "need" means "all thr toys bells and whistles you'll idealy have to start playing 40k in a compeitive scene"

I garntee you there are people out there whom have not purchased a supplement and have no intention of doing so


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Backfire wrote:

 Elbows wrote:
Games Workshop, like any business, is not immune to anything.

Right now they're riding a high, and enjoying life while it's good. They're alienating plenty of customers, but generating more new ones - so it's a net positive. Plenty of money is coming in, and they're pushing the boundaries of pricing, allowing huge financial gains.

What they've never faced (though they did shortly) was another company going after the same product design as them. Privateer Press came closest of all the others, but even that paled in comparison. They later changed focus, gaming materials, etc. Mantic is another large company but they've stuck to their "cheap gaming" mantra and it continues to show.

GW has lots of fans who are interested primarily in Warhammer, not necessarily miniature wargames in general. This does not make them immune to competition but does provide sort of safe space.
Some people have said that Star Wars miniature game would put GW out of business, but I don't think it would happen. I don't think Star Wars is a setting that well suited for tabletop wargames, though X-Wing is popular and does somewhat compete from same customers.

I don't think GW is going to crash spectacularly. If and when they die off, it will be 'with a whimper', a slow decade-long struggle with the fanbase aging and customer tastes changing, with maybe some poor or unlucky management decisions thrown in to get the ball rolling faster.

multiple star wars mini games exist and they're not putting GW out of busniess at all. anyone who says that is siily.

that said I tend to agree that GW if it dies will die VERY slowly. In fact it's entirely possiable that 40k and AOS could both die and GW continues to live. it'd be much smaller but GW could proably turn a small profit simply acting as a "lisence holding company" for 40k and AOS video games etc

Starwars is a powerful franchise with some big stake holders in control of it and with the licence. It's one of the few where if the parent companies decided "yes we want to make a wargame and take a significant percentage of the market" they could. They'd have the capital (in the core franchise at least) to invest in machinery, production and a multinational distribution chain very fast. They could even undercut GW price wise and rely on the strength of the SW brand to push it forward.

However I think the miniatures market just isn't interesting to big business in that way. It likely doesn't scale up well enough to a mass market product to make them want to invade in such a way. The niche nature of the hobby actually acts to protect GW and also many of the small "one man band" type operations. KS has opened things up for those who want to try getting bigger ,but it can fail as much as it succeeds.

In general there's good money, just not enough for massive businesses to want to muscle in.


That said I really hope PP gets tehir act together. GW needs a little competition from a serious firm in the market.Hopefully once PP moves to their new factory and operations site they can get themselves together (got an email the other day and they are moving over the next month or so)

Backfire wrote:

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

This didn't happen to me quite like that. But a "friend of mine" (you know those school friends that you never actually see or hang out with outside of school) tried to sell me on playing WHFB with him and I went into a local games workshop to buy myself an elves army and my mother only bought me 2 blisters of metal elves. I don't even know if they were heroes or parts of a squad. She refused to buy me anything else and even as a kid I knew that wasn't enough to actually play a game. Wouldn't you know it? I never opened those blisters until like 15 years later when I needed some DnD minis. Got into 40k a couple of years later and now I have like 4000 points of Tau, and 2000 points of Gloomspite Gitz for AOs. With plans to buy Sisters of Battle when they come out.

I don't begrudge my parents for not buying me those models as a kid. They had no guarantee I would ever open the boxes. Let alone build and paint the stuff. Especially since as far as they were concerned. I had no friends to play the game with.

Though they did buy me most of heroscape. So I guess they started me down this path.

Backfire wrote:

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

yeah this is silly. and you see it all the time here among 40k players. 400 points with a patrol detachment is pretty doable (about the points cost of the Marines in Know no Fear I belive) and seems a good place to start, I'd happily play that kinda game with a newer player, heck I'd prefer a small quick game if I knew my opponent was new

Eldarsif wrote:

 Desubot wrote:
Honestly dont see kids at my flg

its mostly 30 odd year olds that come back after getting a job and dont mind the prices.

though they arent willy nilly buying everything.

whats up with this strange sentiment of wanting GW to fail financially. what good does a mind set like this have?

I think there are a ton of kids who get their first box of Warhammer, play with it, and then leave the hobby only to return a decade or more later when they have the disposable income to enjoy the hobby.

Regarding that strange sentiment people have about GW failing I think it has something to do with people being entitled in a way. If GW doesn't do what they(those individuals) want to perfection then GW should die horribly. That's at least what I get from those sentiments.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
MAN I forgot about Heroclix. That theoretically had a lot going for it and it suddenly disappeared about 2015-2016 in my area.

Kids tend to be more fickle when it comes to hobbies. Doesn't help that WizKids are the people managing Heroclix and that is a company I will never understand. I tried getting into Star Trek Attack Wing and the only place I could somewhat reliable buy the newest models was off ebay whereas with X-Wing I could just jump into my FLGS and get started.

The store by me is clearancing out their Attack Wing ships, it will no longer be carried there.

Backfire wrote:

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

So odd. Our stores all had youngling tables built especially for coaching low point games.

Slayer-Fan123 wrote:
MAN I forgot about Heroclix. That theoretically had a lot going for it and it suddenly disappeared about 2015-2016 in my area.

'
Proably just the market catching up with it. there was a time when CMGs where all the rage. then the economic crash of, I wanna say 2008? happened and almost overnight MWDA, the D&D CMG, the SW CMG, Mage Knight, and proably a bunch of others I've outright forgotten about, basicly vanished. Heroclix continued on for a time but seems to be more or less dead now.

Backfire wrote:

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

That guy isn't wrong, but he isn't right either.

Competitive players will rarely take the time to step aside and cater to someone getting into the hobby. As a kid its better to have friends or be in a club. Still, anyone who cares about growing their local scene will have people that take the time to bring kids under their wing. That's why escalation leagues are a thing.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

Backfire wrote:

phillv85 wrote:

I bet GW consider a dozen kids sat with £300 of newly bought models in front of them “getting into the hobby.” I know I certainly do. In fact, I can’t really see how it’s not. What exactly is the bench mark for “getting into the hobby”?

I recall a story recalled by someone here how at gaming store a kid was interested in picking up WHFB, until the grognards told him that he would need to buy, paint and base full 2500 point army before anyone would play with him. He decided to pick up something else.

That guy isn't wrong, but he isn't right either.

Competitive players will rarely take the time to step aside and cater to someone getting into the hobby. As a kid its better to have friends or be in a club. Still, anyone who cares about growing their local scene will have people that take the time to bring kids under their wing. That's why escalation leagues are a thing.

I find it has little to do with a persons skill or experience or attitude (competitive vs casual) and more to do with if they are simply a good person at introducing others to a game. Some people have that skill, others lack it and some don't care to even bother trying. Thankfully the number who are actively against it is woefully small in general. They get remembered, but they are very few and far between. By and large most gamer groups are more than happy for new people. some are more experienced at it and will know how to best introduce someone - to guide them through getting started; play starting games with them; help them learn etc... Whilst some might be keen but lack the awareness and skills and might be off putting without intending to be so.

Plus along the way you always get those who try something out and find that it is just not for them and they move on. Or they just never get that great first day and never settle and just wander off - lost opportunities.

 Overread wrote:


Timmy being left at the store with a box of minis and splashing some paint on might not be "into the hobby" in that moment; he's just into the art and craft and such. But lets say that happens every few weeks and he enjoys it. The store manager and other gamers encourage him and help him along; he turns from putting together a few minis and slapping paint on into playing a game (probably using the store codex and the opponents rulebook as the opponent helps teach them how to play - see they don't even need to buy any rules to get started). Before they know it they ARE into the hobby.



In the end this is all mostly boiling down to "what counts as a gamer" and in that there's a huge myriad of things.

Why would the regulars want a kid to start the game in a different way, then they did. people have an inherent disliked of the other and different. A store has one culture, and what ever it is, and how ever it maybe different from cultures in other stores, people are not going to look pleased if someone does stuff the "wrong" way. If the new kid buys a 2500pts of army, never paints it, and only wants to play, and the store has a ton of people that work in paintstudios or do commissions, they are not going to look accepting at his grey tide. Same if someone tries to take it real slow, one painte squad at a time, and the store is 2000pts matched played continent X tournament pack, and everything WYSIWYG, then they are not going to be very open to someone asking for a 750pts game.

They get remembered, but they are very few and far between. By and large most gamer groups are more than happy for new people. some are more experienced at it and will know how to best introduce someone - to guide them through getting started; play starting games with them; help them learn etc...

yes, when they play the game the "proper" way. We had an ex pat guy from UK who tried to play with his FW army, and the store has a no FW rule. Came like 5 times, never got a game, never came back. Same would be true for a reverse situation, if someone in a FW place, would say they don't want to play vs FW stuff, they wouldn't be getting any rules real fast.

Something I think it's worth applauding GW for is the ease in which you can start playing. With just the free rules and a box of minis you can play a game. It's not a deep game, but it is a way to get a new play up and going pretty easilly. If they have a little extra dosh they can grab a start collecting box and have a Patrol Detachment when they move into playing narrative or matched play.

Sure, the game is more complete with more books, but I'd argue that open play method of using the datasheet(s) in the box works great to help teach someone how to play.

There are a lot of things we can complain about, but I feel the way they lowered the bar to entry to be a great improvement.

Never, now. Given that they were able to prove all they need to do is put out pretty figures and continue to make a terrible game and what double their profits? the rabid GW fan base is so large and so die hard that I don't think anything will ever sink them again. it would take something catastrophic like during the Kirby era in order to even remotely get to that point again and all they would have to do is put on a show and fix it.Every single release they have proves this more because he won't get tons of people gushing over how the figure looks with little or no concern as to what it actually does or its price.

We the community missed our chance to push for actual improvements and light a fire under gw's ass by rewarding their smoke and mirrors and repeated terrible behavior with record-breaking profit and by giving them underserved credit for doing common Sense things that businesses have been doing for the past 15 years as though it was something revolutionary because GW was doing it

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 Togusa wrote:


We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

I'm not on the Schools League mailing list any more but for the years that I was they ran the gamut of ~500 to ~700 points until they switched entirely to Kill Team. It was always achievable money for kids from middle income families, still is.

That is where I got most of my impressions of how kids really get into the hobby rather than how someone on Dakka imagines they do. Nice to see a bit of reality creeping into this discussion at last.

Our Local FLGS offers a KT "Package" to members of the school league. Rule Book + 1 Troop Kit + 6 Paint Pots (choice of colors) for 80$. Includes a free standard Paint Brush and a Free Wash Brush.

The school also bought about 500$ worth of terrain and models that students could use for the club!

 Togusa wrote:

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 Togusa wrote:


We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

I'm not on the Schools League mailing list any more but for the years that I was they ran the gamut of ~500 to ~700 points until they switched entirely to Kill Team. It was always achievable money for kids from middle income families, still is.

That is where I got most of my impressions of how kids really get into the hobby rather than how someone on Dakka imagines they do. Nice to see a bit of reality creeping into this discussion at last.

Our Local FLGS offers a KT "Package" to members of the school league. Rule Book + 1 Troop Kit + 6 Paint Pots (choice of colors) for 80$. Includes a free standard Paint Brush and a Free Wash Brush.

The school also bought about 500$ worth of terrain and models that students could use for the club!

Now that's a good way to grow your community!

 ClockworkZion wrote:

 Togusa wrote:

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 Togusa wrote:


We've seen an uptake in youth leagues in my area. A lot of this has come from local stores pushing Warcry, KT, and the idea that 40K can be played at lower points levels below 1500 points.

So I'm not so sure that the cost is going to cause any collapse anytime soon.

I'm not on the Schools League mailing list any more but for the years that I was they ran the gamut of ~500 to ~700 points until they switched entirely to Kill Team. It was always achievable money for kids from middle income families, still is.

That is where I got most of my impressions of how kids really get into the hobby rather than how someone on Dakka imagines they do. Nice to see a bit of reality creeping into this discussion at last.

Our Local FLGS offers a KT "Package" to members of the school league. Rule Book + 1 Troop Kit + 6 Paint Pots (choice of colors) for 80$. Includes a free standard Paint Brush and a Free Wash Brush.

The school also bought about 500$ worth of terrain and models that students could use for the club!

Now that's a good way to grow your community!

Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

 Togusa wrote:
[Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

You mean other than the Kill Team boxes?

Wayniac wrote:
Never, now. Given that they were able to prove all they need to do is put out pretty figures and continue to make a terrible game and what double their profits? the rabid GW fan base is so large and so die hard that I don't think anything will ever sink them again. it would take something catastrophic like during the Kirby era in order to even remotely get to that point again and all they would have to do is put on a show and fix it.Every single release they have proves this more because he won't get tons of people gushing over how the figure looks with little or no concern as to what it actually does or its price.

We the community missed our chance to push for actual improvements and light a fire under gw's ass by rewarding their smoke and mirrors and repeated terrible behavior with record-breaking profit and by giving them underserved credit for doing common Sense things that businesses have been doing for the past 15 years as though it was something revolutionary because GW was doing it

so stop playing.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 ClockworkZion wrote:

 Togusa wrote:
[Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

You mean other than the Kill Team boxes?

I think he's thinking something a little larger and more specialist. basicly a box that gives 2 complete 1000 point armies and the terrain nesscary to play, make it a decent cost and something specialsit only avaliable to a registered school gaming club.

Karol wrote:

Why would the regulars want a kid to start the game in a different way, then they did.

Because not doing so is terribly short sighted on our part. It's detrimental to the miniature gaming hobby as a whole and to the local shop in particular.

The hobby always needs new blood. Without it. :(
The local hobby/game shop? You show me the independent shop that doesn't need more sales. Go on, I'll wait.
And if my local shop goes away? :( :( :(

So it's in my own best interest to accommodate new players, however they're starting.
Maybe that means playing smaller scale games. Ok. I'm a gamer. And maybe if we're playing small games we can fit several into the allotted time.
Maybe that means being attacked repeatedly by the grey tide. Hopefully that turns into the WIP tide....
Maybe we run team games of several people/side each with only x pts.
Maybe a combo of these.
It definitely means not crushing them into paste right from the start. Breaking the players will to play absolutely harms sales.

My only absolute demand is that all of your squads be clearly identifiable. As in Red Squad, Blue Squad, etc so we know what's what as things get moved about.

Karol wrote:

We had an ex pat guy from UK who tried to play with his FW army, and the store has a no FW rule. Came like 5 times, never got a game, never came back. Same would be true for a reverse situation, if someone in a FW place, would say they don't want to play vs FW stuff, they wouldn't be getting any rules real fast.

In the Ex Pats case? You know that saying about "When in Rome..."?
1st visit: "Oh pooh :( They have some crappy house rule in place." But coming back 4 more times hoping it'll be different? "Eh, sorry dude."
As a player it IS on you to adapt to where you want to be playing. After you become a known regular then maybe you can work on shifting the existing house rules. Might help if you also spend a lot of $ through the shop while doing that.

The second case? Maybe. Maybe not. Just because someone owns FW stuff doesn't mean it always has to be used. But this just comes down to being able to negotiate game details with your opponents.

ccs wrote:

Karol wrote:

Why would the regulars want a kid to start the game in a different way, then they did.

Because not doing so is terribly short sighted on our part. It's detrimental to the miniature gaming hobby as a whole and to the local shop in particular.

The hobby always needs new blood. Without it. :(
The local hobby/game shop? You show me the independent shop that doesn't need more sales. Go on, I'll wait.
And if my local shop goes away? :( :( :(

So it's in my own best interest to accommodate new players, however they're starting.
Maybe that means playing smaller scale games. Ok. I'm a gamer. And maybe if we're playing small games we can fit several into the allotted time.
Maybe that means being attacked repeatedly by the grey tide. Hopefully that turns into the WIP tide....
Maybe we run team games of several people/side each with only x pts.
Maybe a combo of these.
It definitely means not crushing them into paste right from the start. Breajing the players will to play absolutely harms sales.

My only absolute demand is that all of your squads be clearly identifiable. As in Red Squad, Blue Squad, etc so we know what's what as things get moved about.


[ with your opponents.

besides playing the same game with the same lsit with the same points etc all the time is dull, sometimes a smaller game can be a fun thing

BrianDavion wrote:

 ClockworkZion wrote:

 Togusa wrote:
[Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

You mean other than the Kill Team boxes?

I think he's thinking something a little larger and more specialist. basicly a box that gives 2 complete 1000 point armies and the terrain nesscary to play, make it a decent cost and something specialsit only avaliable to a registered school gaming club.

You mean warcry?

The Ex-Pat might well have just been seeing how strong the "no FW" rule was, esp considering their whole army was FW so somewhat a special case. Many clubs have general rules like "no FW in pickup games" but that doesn't mean that you can never ever EVER take FW models to the club. Just that the club won't expect you to use them in a generic pickup game. Ergo its a case of "hey lets play oh can can I use my FW stuff in the game" before the match.

Quite common in most clubs and groups.

*I can't predict whether GW will crash, but I can tell you what would freeze my willingness to purchase new product:
A 9th edition that changes things so radically that it invalidates the current dexes until everything gets rewritten again. I think GW is smart enough to realize that for many of the new players, a reset button would be catastrophic.

I've played since Rogue Trader; I played 2nd like a mad man, and continued to play fairly hard for 3rd. I had a second heyday- not sure if it was 4th or 5th (2007-2009). Then I stopped because Sisters were in bad shape and fading fast.

I returned to the game with the release of the 7th ed Genestealer Cult Codex, and it pulled me back. Sisters were my primary, but the GSC had been my first love, and I still had vintage versions of the Patriarch, magi and hybrids. Then they rereleased Celestine with these amazing Geminae body guards! And it was part of the transition to an 8th which would see an entire Sisters release; I was lcky, because while I did buy the 7th ed GSC dex, I didn't have time to buy it before 8th was announced. The final coup de gras? The indexes which allowed me to transition seamlessly into 8th and start playing with two armies that I loved, both of which had been written off for dead for ages, and both of which were promised a renaissance in 8th.

So forgive me if I'm a fanboy, but there's a method to my madness. I've decided that 8th is the proverbial hill I'm gonna die on, so I'm all in.

I have every Kill Team Rule book except Arena, because competitive just doesn't fit my playstyle. I archive all the downloads, and I've invested in more codexes than ever in any previous edition. I've got: GSC, Tyranids, Astra Militarum, Adeptus Mechanicus, Chaos Space Marines 2.0, Chaos Daemons, and Drukari. It goes without saying I want the Sisters when it drops. But I also want Deathwatch. If they do something to help Grey Knights (and I think Psychic awakening will be that thing), I'll buy their dex too. If they release Inquisition or Agents of the Imperium, I'm all in. If they do something for Kroot, I will dig into that and Tau to go with it. Banshees tempt me to Eldar, and if I bite, I'll need the Triumvirate and a small detachment of Harlequins.

Because Kill Team Rogue Trader and Blackstone Fortress cater to Blanchitsu style warband gaming and include models and 40k rules for characters associated with the Eclessiarchy and the Inquisition, I bought into those pretty hard too. If any expansion includes 40k rules for any of the armies listed above, I'll continue to buy those too.

I will Apocalypse, but only once my campaign reaches that scale, which could take a year or so.

Necromunda might be on my horizon, but I'm investing in so much else, I had to draw a line for now. Greater cross compatibility with 40k would go a long way to winning me over.

Sorry for the long and winding ramble through my collection, but the point is that I'm buying this much because if they do hit the reset button I'm out, and I will own enough product that my friends and I can keep playing 8th until we kick the bucket.

If, on the other hand, they continue to evolve the Universe slowly using amazing tools like world wide interactive campaigns with new rules and model support; if they continue to use White Dwarf to give us serviceable rules content for niche gamers like me; if they eventually give the Drukari and the Grey Knights the same kind of love that more recent codexes have had...

Well then they've got a pretty dedicated customer for as long as they keep going the way they are going. Again sorry for the length of this post, but I wanted to explain why I sometimes over react when I see naysaying Dakkanauts ranting for 9th because they want to win more tournaments. I understand their perspective, and respect their opinions and realize that they too are vital to the long term survivability of the hobby.

But they still make may sad.

*I can't predict whether GW will crash, but I can tell you what would freeze my willingness to purchase new product:
A 9th edition that changes things so radically that it invalidates the current dexes until everything gets rewritten again. I think GW is smart enough to realize that for many of the new players, a reset button would be catastrophic.

New players of what kind? Those who have half an army and one codex? Certainly not.

 wuestenfux wrote:

*I can't predict whether GW will crash, but I can tell you what would freeze my willingness to purchase new product:
A 9th edition that changes things so radically that it invalidates the current dexes until everything gets rewritten again. I think GW is smart enough to realize that for many of the new players, a reset button would be catastrophic.

New players of what kind? Those who have half an army and one codex? Certainly not.

8th was the same?!?

And the hackjob of pitifull quality that came for fw armies might aswell would've remained illegal?!?

Honestly I think that GW has learned the lesson that supporting all armies with current edition rules helps improve sales - quite significantly. It also makes far more sense from a business investment perspective to not have to do rescue releases all the time like Sister of Battle or most of AoS. Why burn and run a risk on huge one time investments that have to rekindle life into a range when you can drip-feed updates and keep them current and maintain a healthy long term lifespan anda more active and engaged fanbase.

Because there's always the risk that everyone asks for Sisters, but when push comes to shove everyone is buying other things and not enough buy into them. It's always there as a dark scary risk. But if Sisters are kept up to date and kept popular then you've got a bigger and growing loyal fanbase of customers that will really help ensure a big sales boost whenever something is released.

Not that I think Sisters will fail, not in the least, but its a concern for GW I'm sure that they can't avoid considering.


Right now I think new editions will be more akin to clean ups. GW will change mechanics and adjust things mostly through the annual updates and campaign expansions (like what we are getting now) and then will release a new rules edition which refines a few things and mostly cleans up the collection of myriad rules and FAQ and such.

Codex will likely turn out the same with some being a pure clean up; others will be paired with big releases.

 Overread wrote:
Honestly I think that GW has learned the lesson that supporting all armies with current edition rules helps improve sales - quite significantly. It also makes far more sense from a business investment perspective to not have to do rescue releases all the time like Sister of Battle or most of AoS. Why burn and run a risk on huge one time investments that have to rekindle life into a range when you can drip-feed updates and keep them current and maintain a healthy long term lifespan anda more active and engaged fanbase.

Because there's always the risk that everyone asks for Sisters, but when push comes to shove everyone is buying other things and not enough buy into them. It's always there as a dark scary risk. But if Sisters are kept up to date and kept popular then you've got a bigger and growing loyal fanbase of customers that will really help ensure a big sales boost whenever something is released.

Not that I think Sisters will fail, not in the least, but its a concern for GW I'm sure that they can't avoid considering.


Right now I think new editions will be more akin to clean ups. GW will change mechanics and adjust things mostly through the annual updates and campaign expansions (like what we are getting now) and then will release a new rules edition which refines a few things and mostly cleans up the collection of myriad rules and FAQ and such.

Codex will likely turn out the same with some being a pure clean up; others will be paired with big releases.

Bs, GW hasn't learnt that lession, especially in the face of csm 2.0 and all fw index armies.

How so? The Chaos 2.0 is an updated Codex, exactly like I outlined. A new wave of models which was then bolstered with an updated codex release. It's just a big burst instead of smaller ones; the difference being that prior to that chaos was supported so there's ample room for big bursts to work still; just that GW is also now far more open to drip feeding as well.


As for FW, FW is in a really odd place at present. I don't think even GW knows what to do with it and I think its clear that there's some internal politics going on as well as restructuring. I think that the plan for FW has also changed several times quite quickly; you can see that in how the AoS team was disbanded even though all they'd produced were a handful of alternate heads for Stormcast. Meanwhile the AoS side, even though the rules are now set by the internal GW team, still has odd divisions of models such as the myrewurm not being in Idoneth - the army that is perfectly themed and designed to field an underwater beast.

 Overread wrote:
How so? The Chaos 2.0 is an updated Codex, exactly like I outlined. A new wave of models which was then bolstered with an updated codex release. It's just a big burst instead of smaller ones; the difference being that prior to that chaos was supported so there's ample room for big bursts to work still; just that GW is also now far more open to drip feeding as well.


As for FW, FW is in a really odd place at present. I don't think even GW knows what to do with it and I think its clear that there's some internal politics going on as well as restructuring. I think that the plan for FW has also changed several times quite quickly; you can see that in how the AoS team was disbanded even though all they'd produced were a handful of alternate heads for Stormcast. Meanwhile the AoS side, even though the rules are now set by the internal GW team, still has odd divisions of models such as the myrewurm not being in Idoneth - the army that is perfectly themed and designed to field an underwater beast.

No, the dex 2.0 is no Update worth of that description. Especially rulewise. Which is also part of the support an army needs.


FW is irelevant, since the GW rules team took over.

So no GW has NOT learnt that propper updates are required FOR ALL armies, for them to generate returning revenue, especially in the realm of their rules team. Which still throws out more hackjobs.

But we get marines in all colours of rainbows.

The 2.0 codex updates the 1.0 in terms of adding the newly released models into the range into a single book instead of requiring players to own and use multiple books. It's exactly an updated codex.

Now we can debate about the quality of the rules and the technical aspects, but that's a slightly separate discussion and avenue which can get a bit fought with opinion over fact. I will also agree that the rules team still has the same core issue in that they are essentially very casual players writing the rules which results in some elements that appear quite under developed for a company of GW's maturity. I figure this is something we will continue to live with until such time as GW makes an employment change or three in their rules department.

It's not that they don't have an eye to fun, but rather that they clearly have some gaps in how they write things and that sometimes technical aspects are overlooked because the yare so used to playing each other they don't think to include or clarify them.

It's not that they don't have an eye to fun, but rather that they clearly have some gaps in how they write things and that sometimes technical aspects are overlooked because the yare so used to playing each other they don't think to include or clarify them.

What you meant to say that the dude writing the dex didn't get recently rolled over by a player with said faction. Or better is an IoM marine faction.

how long did it take them to update Eldar and CSM sprues?
How many DE HQ options got curbed?

The miniatures are probably the best in the industry.
THeir clear playing of favourites however hinders them, constantly.


But alas, they have driven me allready more or less out of 40k and into killteam and other systems, excactly because of this.
And i rekon i am not the only one.

Well, I don't think that GW will crash now and the next years.
The more interesting question at the moment is whether GW will suffer from a hard brexit without a deal.
The ''yellowhammer'' document describes some scenarios which are not good for UK based companies at short sight.

 Togusa wrote:


Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

They definitely used to. When I registered my local group for schools league they were sent a big box with a load of terrain in it and about a dozen paints and some brushes.

So GW definitely do this stuff, or at least they do in the UK. Obviously I can't comment on other countries where the school support has not been going on for so long and where they might not have a full-on annual national set of tournaments.

It might also be that GW is wanting a tighter handle on the schools interaction so that it doesn't turn into teachers just trying to get free stuff for their hobby. Programs like that need careful management in order to ensure that they are having the desired effect and they need feedback so that GW can monitor if its actually working or not.

Of course GW will be happy for people playing,but the core idea is that the school freebies kickstart the interest in the game locally and encourage local sales.

 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, I don't think that GW will crash now and the next years.
The more interesting question at the moment is whether GW will suffer from a hard brexit without a deal.
The ''yellowhammer'' document describes some scenarios which are not good for UK based companies at short sight.

Well yeah, it lists possible worst case scenarios. If those scenarios were good then it didn't do its job.
For me, the worst case scenario is that Brexit disrupts sales in France. Which is bad for us, but manageable for GW as they just have to focus more on the US and Japan then.
That probably won't happen though, unless Macron is a petty git.

Honestly GW's domestic sales in the UK are healthy enough on their own. I figure the main issue would be that GW would start running out of steam after a year or two if they saw one territory take a dramatic sales hit. So we'd likely see the pace of releases slow down and perhaps some of the marketing ease off a bit - remembering that the weekly releases and daily marketing is all very new.

They might run out of steam without taking any hits too. They are bound to run out of ideas at some point. They can't possibly make marine variants forever. Profitable ones, at least.

 CthuluIsSpy wrote:
They might run out of steam without taking any hits too. They are bound to run out of ideas at some point. They can't possibly make marine variants forever. Profitable ones, at least.

They are unlikely to run out of ideas; but GW has in their annual reports said that at some point they expect to ease off the release pressure and scale back a bit. At what point that happens and to what degree I think they've left open to variation based on investment. Part of it I think is also tied to them saying that their share value will reduce as well - basically generic points of fact that will happen without sticking it to a formal timeframe. Thus preparing investors for changes, but at the same time being flexible to see how the market actually reacts.

Which is very sensible, they know that they cannot maintain a breakneck speed and production rate and that the market might well reach a saturation point and need a cooling off period when sales dwindle somewhat.

happy_inquisitor wrote:

 Togusa wrote:


Yeah! I think that if GW were truly smart, they would come up with some sort of cheap terrain kit + some models to send out to school clubs to jumpstart the hobby.

They definitely used to. When I registered my local group for schools league they were sent a big box with a load of terrain in it and about a dozen paints and some brushes.

So GW definitely do this stuff, or at least they do in the UK. Obviously I can't comment on other countries where the school support has not been going on for so long and where they might not have a full-on annual national set of tournaments.

Here in Germany GW is largely unknown at least when it comes to schools.
GW has established shops in each larger city but not always at high-street.
Most of them are more basement shops such as Hamburg I, let alone Hamburg II.
Moreover, GW doesn't advertise at all. Its just mouth-to-mouth propaganda or you find a store here or there.

In the UK its much the same - advertising and prime highstreet locations are super expensive now. I think it's why GW has been doing so much licence outreach into other markets. They basically can't afford global or even national TV spots and buss sides and prime highstreet shops any more. It's all too expensive and bloated by much more powerful markets or the highstreets are typically being tax/rent/lack of footfalled out of functionality.


So massive internet campaign and massive outreach programs into other markets in the hope of attracting more customers.

I'm sure GW would love to do a big advertising campaign, but I suspect the costs are just way too great. Plus I think the big risk for them is such a campaign might be like the Lord of the Rings films in that whilst the campaign was going it would spike sales up, but once the campaign died down the number of retained customers would be far smaller and the spike would suddenly vanish. Ergo its the kind of thing that once you start you have to keep going to maintain. Profitable if you can spike way above the costs, but also a risky situation where a few rising costs or a lowering in sales could untip the balance.

I've often said that the absolute BEST advertisement a table top game can get is to lisence their IP and name to a hit video game. Baulder's Gate got me playing D&D. the mechwarrior game series is a MAJOR recruitment material for battletech, to the point where you can easily identify "generations" among the fans based on what game got them into the game. Cyberpunk has gone from a game that was almost forgotten about to a game on everyone's radar thanks to the upcomiong CDPR game etc.

thing is video games have such a larger player base then most table top games, even if only 10% of the fans of the games end up getting into your table top, thats a pretty healthy influx of people.

Honetsly sometimes they could do way more.

I remember when games often came with a demo-reel of videos for future products within the main game itself. Furthermore some would have demos on the actual game installer.

If I were GW I'd say to CA - hey can we put a nice flashy link on your launcher page with a download/link for the rules of AoS and a link to a page or two of it. Heck could we also include a video taking people from Warhammer to AoS with a short 1 or 2 min presentation by Becka or one of the other staff at GW.


Basically don't just suppose they've "heard of GW" actually present it to them as a product line. "you've liked the game now get the models".



It's something easy to overlook, but I'm sure there are many who play the games but have no idea of the tabletop. DnD and Warhammer likely work okish at it since their core market is well advertised within the geek niche (but not as much outside); but games like Mech Warrior I was playing for years before ever hearing of a tabletop version.

It seems to me its marketing that works only if the original core marketing already has your attention.

 Overread wrote:
In the UK its much the same - advertising and prime highstreet locations are super expensive now. I think it's why GW has been doing so much licence outreach into other markets. They basically can't afford global or even national TV spots and buss sides and prime highstreet shops any more. It's all too expensive and bloated by much more powerful markets or the highstreets are typically being tax/rent/lack of footfalled out of functionality.


So massive internet campaign and massive outreach programs into other markets in the hope of attracting more customers.

I'm sure GW would love to do a big advertising campaign, but I suspect the costs are just way too great. Plus I think the big risk for them is such a campaign might be like the Lord of the Rings films in that whilst the campaign was going it would spike sales up, but once the campaign died down the number of retained customers would be far smaller and the spike would suddenly vanish. Ergo its the kind of thing that once you start you have to keep going to maintain. Profitable if you can spike way above the costs, but also a risky situation where a few rising costs or a lowering in sales could untip the balance.

Surprising to see some similarities in advertising and high streets locations.

But I think that GW is much more popular in UK than in any other country, isn't it?

I think its well known in the UK and generally considered a household name in so much as most families will have heard of it. It's not totally commonplace, but if you say "Warhammer - you know those expensive models" most people know what you mean.

Non geeky people who don't have kids might well not have heard of it; but they've had a good placing in enough urban areas that they've likely walked past a GW store more than once in their life.


The real trick isn't just reaching out to new markets though; its getting people in the door and parting with money.

 Overread wrote:
I think its well known in the UK and generally considered a household name in so much as most families will have heard of it. It's not totally commonplace, but if you say "Warhammer - you know those expensive models" most people know what you mean.

Non geeky people who don't have kids might well not have heard of it; but they've had a good placing in enough urban areas that they've likely walked past a GW store more than once in their life.


The real trick isn't just reaching out to new markets though; its getting people in the door and parting with money.

This is definitely different in Germany.
When you say ''Warhammer'' people will usually don't know what you mean.
They will maybe wince.

Selling their IP in other sources, (books, video games/mobile games) is their best bet to get more people in on the relative cheap. I started playing cause I randomly picked up the first DOW and just loved everything about the atmosphere and that got me and a few other friends into the game on and off for a decade.

Mobile games are still relatively cheap and I'm sure most BL novels probably are cost effective in the long run even if every individual book doesn't make money. Now a full video game at this point is probably getting stepper and stepper giving an increasing emphasis on high production values and voice acting.

 Overread wrote:

If I were GW I'd say to CA - hey can we put a nice flashy link on your launcher page with a download/link for the rules of AoS and a link to a page or two of it. Heck could we also include a video taking people from Warhammer to AoS with a short 1 or 2 min presentation by Becka or one of the other staff at GW.

That might have worked for WHFB. AOS? Nope.

There is very little in AOS to appeal to the people playing Warhammer Total War. No Ranks 'n' Flanks, the world is gone, major factions like the Empire are basically completely absent and others are literally absent (Bretonnia and Tomb Kings).

GW blowing up the fantasy world just before what would be the biggest game using that world is due to come out has to go down as one of the most idiotic decisions they've ever made.

All they had to do was hold off and develop a box set with rules and resources for running a big map based campaign to release alongside or just after the game. And drop the costs of the kits and have starter boxes for all the armies so these new people coming to have a look off the back of the game can have a cheap buy in for a basic army. Total Warhammer 2 comes out? Nice new expansion set for previous map campaign set including a map for Ulthuan, Naggaroth and the New World along with some new starter boxes.

 Overread wrote:
Starwars is a powerful franchise with some big stake holders in control of it and with the licence. It's one of the few where if the parent companies decided "yes we want to make a wargame and take a significant percentage of the market" they could. They'd have the capital (in the core franchise at least) to invest in machinery, production and a multinational distribution chain very fast. They could even undercut GW price wise and rely on the strength of the SW brand to push it forward.

To be fair to Star Wars, I believe the problem they are having with their current game seeming to have sporadic releases is the same problem that plagues other licensed games- actor's likenesses. You can see this on a smaller scale right now with Warlord's Doctor Who game. The releases are all over the place as they have to wait for the actors (or their estates) to approve the likeness. Now, I've not been following the SW wargame too much but after the initial release it seemed to have just dropped off of the radar with a new release here and there. There might be a release every month but perception is reality.

To really get into gear, Disney would in fact have to do what GW did when they got the LOTR license and get months of releases (I remember getting the flyer at Games Day with near a year's worth of planned release dates on it) pencilled in so you have a steady stream of content from the get go so people's attention does not go elsewhere.