https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/games-workshop-shares-jump-sales-110417852.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZmFjZWJvb2suY29tLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI5haO3OCSOX8WVgL-OxRai7UeGJrcLOrl9DkR_uXDBCAydLM2P2nf6aVeoL1e4AyDlJ8RqSvk-i847n_Vjx9jAuP0aXU6lUxpMlCUIwfpn2T1bS_hvOXA-Mr6p4NpQhnYGD_nNcKrpnsAcDZQ9K7I3UEH21LcYSTtNyheA-WqwK

And for the work blocked/click shy?

Yahoo News wrote:Games Workshop has seen its shares jump higher after telling investors that sales and profits are set to surge for the first of the year.

The retailer said it expects sales for the six months to December 1 to be at least £140 million.

During the six-month period to December in 2018 the retailer posted revenues of £125.2 million and has seen sales continued to increase since.

The Nottingham-headquartered firm added that it expects its pre-tax profits for the period to be at least £55 million.

Over the equivalent period last year, it posted profits of £40.8 million but expects the rise on the back of improving sales.

In a statement to investors, the company said: “Following on from the group’s update in September, trading to November 3 has continued well.

“Compared to the same period in the prior year, sales and profits are ahead.

“Royalties receivable are also significantly ahead of the prior year driven by the timing of guarantee income on signing new licences.”

The Warhammer manufacturer has seen its shares rise by 700% over the past three years and now has a market value of over £1.4 billion.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: “While it isn’t entirely immune from any economic downturn and the negative effects that might have on consumer spending, there is a sense that Games Workshop is currently enjoying a sweet spot whereby it is offering products which appeal to its end-market and in an engaging way.

“Games Workshop has fine-tuned its proposition and hit on a winning formula.

“The fantasy world seems less susceptible to going in and out of fashion and that should enable the company to keep delivering the magic.”

Shares in the company rose by 15.4% to 5,200p in early trading on Friday.

All. The. Munneh.

Hope this means the rest of the industry is in equally rude health. Much as I'm a GW man, gotta have strong competition to prevent laziness, no?

I doubt it means much of anything for the rest of the industry as only GW can/would charge £175 for a £30 boxset and that's without the funky exchange rates. Obviously that's because only GW's fanbase would be willing to pay it but it will be interesting next year, Necromunda the wallet rape edition was released to offset the AT grand master from last year so they will need a similar expensive set next year.

IIRC last time it was mentioned GW made a ton of profit, about 90% was from videogame revenues. Not sure if that was true and/or still the case here.

 Malika2 wrote:
IIRC last time it was mentioned GW made a ton of profit, about 90% was from videogame revenues. Not sure if that was true and/or still the case here.

It would be hilarious if most of the profits actually came from Total War : Warhammer.
That would be some good irony.

All the recent reports showed vidya profits only made up something like 15% of the profits, with most of it coming from their core business, I imagine it remains true now too. Which is fantastic for them as a business of course.

Wasn’t true at all if memory serves.

The royalties certainly don’t hurt, but given all their sales mediums (direct, wholesale, stores) are profitable, that’s their main income.

Looking at the report, last year their profit without royalties was £69,834,000.00

Revenue from licensing? £11,365,00.

So a significant boost, but hardly the deciding factor twixt profit and loss

[quote=SeanDrake 782391 10627708 nullonly GW can/would charge £175 for a £30 boxset

 Malika2 wrote:
IIRC last time it was mentioned GW made a ton of profit, about 90% was from videogame revenues. Not sure if that was true and/or still the case here.

That's not how it would work, your profit is simply your income minus your expenditure, you can't attribute x% of it down to y.

However, there was a report back along towards the end of the Kirby era, when they were contracting, where the amount of money they gained from licencing was approximately the same as the profit they posted for that period. So while you can't say "they made their profit from licencing" you can absolutely say "they needed the income from licencing to avoid making a loss."

Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

I got news for ya, that isn't going to happen.

The Electronic Games industry has been training youth for a decade now in the ways of pay to win. The economy is much better today than it was 10 years ago, and a lot of people have much more expendable money. In my area, 40K is outselling MtG currently in 2 of 4 stores.

But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

Why do you think half of GW's product line today is skirmish games like Necromunda, Kill Team or Warcry, or Aeronautica?

Also, literally everyone knows whales are profitable, I bet most of the money GW makes comes from 40-50yo's who spend thousands of dollars a year on new projects, not the kids or responsible hobbyists who maybe spend a few hundred a year.

Good for GW! What I like most about GWs continual growth and surging profits is how silly it makes all the toxic 'comic book guys' that infest Dakka seem. How many years of "the sky is falling" has this been now? hahaha!

 Hollow wrote:
Good for GW! What I like most about GWs continual growth and surging profits is how silly it makes all the toxic 'comic book guys' that infest Dakka seem. How many years of "the sky is falling" has this been now? hahaha!

I also hate people who see some good news and decide to chime in with some ignorant comment or insult.
I agree with you - those type of people are pathetic losers!

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

Don't think that will ever happen, to be honest.

Middle Class Parents typically favour this sort of hobby for it's creative side and other educational benefits. And they typically have quite deep pockets.

It also makes for a decent reward system.

Consider, it is the start of the Summer Holidays. 6 weeks of needing to entertain your offspring. Requisite famalam holiday is booked. But what of the other 4/5 weeks?

You could find two or three activities per week, and pay for each and every one.

Or, you could drop £300-£400 at the beginning, and get your offspring into a whole new hobby which has a fair start up cost, but relatively low ongoing maintenance (£35 for a box of Marines, a week to paint them and game with them).

The next 6 months will be interesting.

Interest seems to be waning, sales seem to be dropping (BotP still has stock) and in general there seem to be less players, not more.

No doubt the success (or not) of Sisters, and Slaves to Darkness will be key, not to mention PA.

Good news, but I wonder how long GW can sustain this growth.

This may be pennies in the grand scheme of things, but how will the performance of Blood of the Phoenix have impacted their idea that people will pay more for less? If Necromunda goes the same way then maybe it's a sign for them to not increase prices so drastically?

It's good to see the company doing well though!

Edit: An Actual Englishman beat me to mentioning BotP, my fault for going afk

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

Dunno. It's been predicted to happen for about 20 years. Hasn't happened so far.

Can't imagine it's hard to do when you raise the prices with ever release and put out $300+ boxes every other week.

Togusa wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

I got news for ya, that isn't going to happen.

The Electronic Games industry has been training youth for a decade now in the ways of pay to win. The economy is much better today than it was 10 years ago, and a lot of people have much more expendable money. In my area, 40K is outselling MtG currently in 2 of 4 stores.

Nah, wrong on that one, friend. I've been living in east asia for about 3 years now, and the price of GW minis is prohibitively high. God knows there's interest, but there's no established community. New blood almost doesn't exist. I think GW makes its cash out of 1. kids in parts of the world where it's a known thing dipping in and, probably most importantly, 2. proper, proper fans. They pulled a clever trick, way back in the day by telling customers that they need an [/i]army, and it works. Recently, they've been catering specifically to that audience - truescale marines, paints to help slog through unpainted backlog faster, background factions getting actual armies - but to have a real[i] future, they're gonna have to work a bit harder on expanding in a way that won't scare of people who aren't familiar, and don't have a local GW. Where I am, there's a lot of commotion about contrast paint, but I'll be damned if there are any actual players.

 posermcbogus wrote:

Togusa wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

I got news for ya, that isn't going to happen.

The Electronic Games industry has been training youth for a decade now in the ways of pay to win. The economy is much better today than it was 10 years ago, and a lot of people have much more expendable money. In my area, 40K is outselling MtG currently in 2 of 4 stores.

Nah, wrong on that one, friend. I've been living in east asia for about 3 years now, and the price of GW minis is prohibitively high. God knows there's interest, but there's no established community. New blood almost doesn't exist. I think GW makes its cash out of 1. kids in parts of the world where it's a known thing dipping in and, probably most importantly, 2. proper, proper fans. They pulled a clever trick, way back in the day by telling customers that they need an [/i]army, and it works. Recently, they've been catering specifically to that audience - truescale marines, paints to help slog through unpainted backlog faster, background factions getting actual armies - but to have a real[i] future, they're gonna have to work a bit harder on expanding in a way that won't scare of people who aren't familiar, and don't have a local GW. Where I am, there's a lot of commotion about contrast paint, but I'll be damned if there are any actual players.

Where I lived we have people that buy without even care what the content they're buying, I'm not kidding, play Tau? Buy everything in the Tau section, including Start collecting sets and the kits in the SC set separately. I'm a friend with a painter so I see this type of customer quite a few time.



On the plus side more exceed cash mean more money into side games. (*cough* EPIC.. *cough*)

 Tyranid Horde wrote:
This may be pennies in the grand scheme of things, but how will the performance of Blood of the Phoenix have impacted their idea that people will pay more for less? If Necromunda goes the same way then maybe it's a sign for them to not increase prices so drastically?

It's good to see the company doing well though!

Edit: An Actual Englishman beat me to mentioning BotP, my fault for going afk

It's certainly a good question.

But....I'm not sure BotP and Necromunda are comparable outside of the rough price bracket.

BotP was rubbish value. Too little in there to really persuade many to buy it.

Necromunda? That's a load of terrain. Like, a load. It also seems to be a self contained game. Whilst too rich for my blood (don't need the rules, neither gang interests me, therefore await scenery's separate release), it has an appeal beyond that of BotP.

 Malika2 wrote:
IIRC last time it was mentioned GW made a ton of profit, about 90% was from videogame revenues. Not sure if that was true and/or still the case here.

No, that was something only imbeciles parroted. The last time GW raked a ton of profit 90% of the ROYALTIES were from PC games.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 An Actual Englishman wrote:
The next 6 months will be interesting.

Interest seems to be waning, sales seem to be dropping (BotP still has stock) and in general there seem to be less players, not more.

No doubt the success (or not) of Sisters, and Slaves to Darkness will be key, not to mention PA.

Good news, but I wonder how long GW can sustain this growth.

I mean. Blood of the phoenix still has stock because they want me to pay 230 euros for fething hellions. Meanwhile feast of bones vanished from the spanish trading circuits within the day.

Feast of Bones also contained around 50% brand new models, and for a lower price point.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

 Tyranid Horde wrote:
This may be pennies in the grand scheme of things, but how will the performance of Blood of the Phoenix have impacted their idea that people will pay more for less? If Necromunda goes the same way then maybe it's a sign for them to not increase prices so drastically?

It's good to see the company doing well though!

Edit: An Actual Englishman beat me to mentioning BotP, my fault for going afk

It's certainly a good question.

But....I'm not sure BotP and Necromunda are comparable outside of the rough price bracket.

BotP was rubbish value. Too little in there to really persuade many to buy it.

Necromunda? That's a load of terrain. Like, a load. It also seems to be a self contained game. Whilst too rich for my blood (don't need the rules, neither gang interests me, therefore await scenery's separate release), it has an appeal beyond that of BotP.

There’s not loads of terrain in the new Necromunda that’s why all the promo pictures show 2 boxes worth and a big scratch built centre piece, there are a lot of sprues in the box they just don’t actually make much terrain.

Which does indicate there is no problem with interest in GW, there was a problem with GW releasing a horrible box full of junk. I bet you if they packed 10 Banshees and...well, any other NEW eldar kit in it, it'd sell better. But that again touches upon GW and it's bizarre hate for Xenos in 40k which is another topic.

If you focus purely on 40k, I can see why you get the impression that the customer base might be shrinking, but the other sectors of the company are doing extremely well. Every AOS box set this year sold out in no time at all. If you look at tournament data there were more than double the number of AOS tournaments in the last six months than in the same period last year. There is no question that despite the awful start AOS should now be considered a considerable success for gw.
Underworlds and warcry have both been very successful.
With the likes of part works, space marine heroes and the Barnes and noble products gw has massively diversified their revenue streams.
They are very unlikely to have another crash like they did after lotr. Even if 40k drops off, they have enough other products that they won't take a massive hit.
International pricing is a major growth limiter though, especially here in Japan. Gw doesn't seem to realise that there hasn't been inflation here for almost 30 years. Price increases hurt us more than anywhere else.
The trouble is that there is no reason for them to re-examine prices if profits keep going up.

 An Actual Englishman wrote:
The next 6 months will be interesting.

Interest seems to be waning, sales seem to be dropping (BotP still has stock) and in general there seem to be less players, not more.

No doubt the success (or not) of Sisters, and Slaves to Darkness will be key, not to mention PA.

Good news, but I wonder how long GW can sustain this growth.

Depends what you mean by growth at this point they cannot cope with actually being successful they spent that long cruising under Kirby and pissing the profits away on very high dividends and nepotistic projects to funnel cash into Kirby’s back pocket that they let the infrastructure rot this made no difference when they only had to produce a handful of kits a quarter and any stuff that needed restocking but the current release schedule has shown there weaknesses.

I suspect they are going to partially swing back to the old GW way less sales but higher prices because being successful is way to much like real work.

So as for you question if by growth you mean increasing sales numbers and more players I don’t think there even going to try, if by growth you mean profit then oh boy yes there going to do whatever they can to keep the figures up. I would expect more box sets with less in them for higher prices all ltd edition and containing exclusive miniatures there going to ride the fomo train harder than most Kickstarter’s.

They will now be an annual bring your own lube box set due to the success of AT so they avoid a big AT sized hole in there profits year on year, the burden of an unexpected success. Unless the SoB launch falls flat on its face again then going forward I would expect any new or revamped armies to be done the same way expensive box of monopose miniatures and one of there laughable ltd edition codexs to bump the price right up. These will then feed into monopose SC sets to limit the interest vet players have in them also there cheaper to make so two birds there.

Prices will continue to rise monthly on new releases and periodically on everything else and will continue to rise until such a point as it starts to hurt the financials they all ready happily admit there gonna make “fans” wallets scream and people take that as a joke where I personally think it’s company policy

So what's actually responsible for sales? GW contrast paints?

No one's forcing anyone to buy GW products. I actually use colored primers and Army Painter washes to speed up my painting. I still think the boardgaming market's larger, anyway.

GW just reminds me of the comic book industry before it crashed. Everything is a limited edition #1 with 14 covers, while the quality of the product is not increasing in line with the prices. And with a 2 year lead time on new products, GW doesn’t have a lot of mobility to respond to changing market conditions.

And GW’s main audience is over 40. Won’t be long before they are over 50, then over 60. They still going to be buying expensive miniatures when their eyes go bad, their hands shake, and they start caring more about colonoscopies than the Tau? If they don’t bring in new, younger players, they are working on borrowed time. And they aren’t going to bring in younger players when their boxes cost as much as a game console.

GW is making record profits, but that’s covering up for an extremely unhealthy business. The comic book industry isn’t the only thing it reminds me of. It also reminds me of Warmachine at the height of its popularity.

I remember telling people that Warmachine was in a really bad place. It was openly hostile to new players, with poor quality control, and a bloated product line. And people told me, Warmachine is more popular than ever - heck, they are about to release a new edition!

It’s easy to see a toxic situation after the damage has been done, but it is when the profits are high that the damage is becoming malignant. And I’m telling you, GW is not in nearly as good a place as it looks right now. GW is like the Horus Heresy series - great for people who got in when it was less than a dozen books, but the series is getting old and new value us not being translated to people who haven’t read multiple dozens of book.

Chopstick wrote:

 posermcbogus wrote:

Togusa wrote:

 Sqorgar wrote:
Who knew whales were so profitable? But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

I got news for ya, that isn't going to happen.

The Electronic Games industry has been training youth for a decade now in the ways of pay to win. The economy is much better today than it was 10 years ago, and a lot of people have much more expendable money. In my area, 40K is outselling MtG currently in 2 of 4 stores.

Nah, wrong on that one, friend. I've been living in east asia for about 3 years now, and the price of GW minis is prohibitively high. God knows there's interest, but there's no established community. New blood almost doesn't exist. I think GW makes its cash out of 1. kids in parts of the world where it's a known thing dipping in and, probably most importantly, 2. proper, proper fans. They pulled a clever trick, way back in the day by telling customers that they need an [/i]army, and it works. Recently, they've been catering specifically to that audience - truescale marines, paints to help slog through unpainted backlog faster, background factions getting actual armies - but to have a real[i] future, they're gonna have to work a bit harder on expanding in a way that won't scare of people who aren't familiar, and don't have a local GW. Where I am, there's a lot of commotion about contrast paint, but I'll be damned if there are any actual players.

Where I lived we have people that buy without even care what the content they're buying, I'm not kidding, play Tau? Buy everything in the Tau section, including Start collecting sets and the kits in the SC set separately. I'm a friend with a painter so I see this type of customer quite a few time.



On the plus side more exceed cash mean more money into side games. (*cough* EPIC.. *cough*)

Interesting. Whereabouts are you in Vietnam, and what is your community like? Out here, I think I'm the only white person involved in anything even remotely citadel related, and have had some pretty funny "Oh wise one, impart your great wisdom"-esq reactions just for being passingly familiar with modeling 30k. Most people in modelling out here are very blue collar (involved in heavy machinery industry, or else rice farmers), with little cash to splash, and pre-established interests in gundam, or historical modeling. I have to go all the way to Osaka for GW stuff (rare), and every time I have, I haven't encountered anyone non-Japanese in the hobby.

 Sqorgar wrote:
GW just reminds me of the comic book industry before it crashed. Everything is a limited edition #1 with 14 covers, while the quality of the product is not increasing in line with the prices. And with a 2 year lead time on new products, GW doesn’t have a lot of mobility to respond to changing market conditions.

And GW’s main audience is over 40. Won’t be long before they are over 50, then over 60. They still going to be buying expensive miniatures when their eyes go bad, their hands shake, and they start caring more about colonoscopies than the Tau? If they don’t bring in new, younger players, they are working on borrowed time. And they aren’t going to bring in younger players when their boxes cost as much as a game console.

GW is making record profits, but that’s covering up for an extremely unhealthy business. The comic book industry isn’t the only thing it reminds me of. It also reminds me of Warmachine at the height of its popularity.

I remember telling people that Warmachine was in a really bad place. It was openly hostile to new players, with poor quality control, and a bloated product line. And people told me, Warmachine is more popular than ever - heck, they are about to release a new edition!

It’s easy to see a toxic situation after the damage has been done, but it is when the profits are high that the damage is becoming malignant. And I’m telling you, GW is not in nearly as good a place as it looks right now. GW is like the Horus Heresy series - great for people who got in when it was less than a dozen books, but the series is getting old and new value us not being translated to people who haven’t read multiple dozens of book.

Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

Lord Kragan wrote:
Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

Well, I think the point is more that a "robust report" doesn't necessarily mean that current business practices are long-term stable.

It also doesn't mean that they are not. In the end, the report only tells us what the report actually says, that currently, financials look "good." That could turn around. Or, not.

Cronch wrote:

But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

Why do you think half of GW's product line today is skirmish games like Necromunda, Kill Team or Warcry, or Aeronautica?

Also, literally everyone knows whales are profitable, I bet most of the money GW makes comes from 40-50yo's who spend thousands of dollars a year on new projects, not the kids orresponsible hobbyists who maybe spend a few hundred a year.

Ha! Good one!

GW has been declared dead or their death has been deemed as "impending"/"Any day now" for...a long time.

I wouldn't mind them getting a wake up call on certain things, particularly their ridiculous pricing and 'conversion' rates, but I don't think it is coming...soon?

Glad to see GW won't be going under anytime soon. I enjoy 40k and don't want to see it go into dumpster.

I think GW has some staying power. They have been expanding their lines, and they are now putting out board game product that isn't war gaming. BSF for example? I've got friends who don't like D&D or 40k, but they love to play board games.... BSF has them hooked. Hooking into different customer bases is what will help them long term, and looking at the product line you can see it happening.

There are also people who buy the product just to paint/model. As mentioned before, you now have small entry points - like Kill Team.

While I really dislike the rising costs of the hobby, I do see an improvement on product. The quality of models between say the Assault on Black Reach and Shadow Spear is very noticeable. Not even close to being worth $300+ tho.

Good on 'em. They seem to be making the people still into 40K and AoS happy with their new methods and community outreach/engagement. They were headed to bad places if they didn't change *something* so they did, and fair play for any boost in success that earned them.

I'm still not coming back, though. During the years they pushed me out into the wilderness, I discovered a world of 30 minis for $35 boxes and rulesets that I just think, personal opinion, are better written and more fun. In my more cynical moments I want to snark that a lot of people have been mistaking a better 40K for a good game, but honestly that's probably just down to my personal tastes.

I guess I'm trying to say that while I don't understand the massive appeal this turnaround on everything except pricing has for so many, I'm glad it does. A strong GW today tends to help bring in more of tomorrow's general wargamers.

 H wrote:

Lord Kragan wrote:
Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

Well, I think the point is more that a "robust report" doesn't necessarily mean that current business practices are long-term stable.

It also doesn't mean that they are not. In the end, the report only tells us what the report actually says, that currently, financials look "good." That could turn around. Or, not.

The industry is in a weird place. In many regards, its more popular and larger than its ever been. The problem is, the means of getting products to customers is kind of a complete mess. If you try and get something from a local store that isn't on the shelves without preordering it, you're probably out of luck. Distributors don't care about reordering product anymore so everything is shifting to launch week and direct sales. GW seems to have adapted to things well, but I do wonder how long they can keep up with the pace that's being demanded. I think contraction is inevitable and while I think its ridiculous that when a boats a bit over capacity half the crew abandons ship, but I've also largely given up on pretending like the crowd won't react in the dumbest way possible sooner or later.

 H wrote:

Lord Kragan wrote:
Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

Well, I think the point is more that a "robust report" doesn't necessarily mean that current business practices are long-term stable.

Pretty much this. Business models, all of them, I don't care what service is offered or product manufactured, ALL business models are based on infinite growth. The reality is, infinite growth is impossible. A downturn in sales will eventually come, it's inevitable, the question becomes how significant will it be.

Currently everyone I game with and a lot of others I see comment online are experiencing "GW release fatigue".

There is too much, too quickly coming from GW that people are just tossing in the towel; giving up. Not leaving the hobby, just done buying new stuff. Myself included. This may eventually show up in GW's 2020 or 2021 report, who knows. But they cannot continue at this pace. The proverb is "The flame that burns twice as bright, burns half as long." The meaning behind this is one of longevity; pace yourself. That's what GW needs to do. Consistent, steady growth over a long period of time and not keep saturating the market with product to point that there's no one left to buy it or existing customers are bled dry.

We're already starting to see the negative affects of this. To sustain sales GW has to invalidate old product and replace it with something new (e.g. Primaris Space Marines).

To sustain sales GW has to invalidate old product and replace it with something new

That is inevitable in any collection-based hobby or game. it's what killed WFB (to some degree, there were many issues with it)- people had close to 20 years of collections worth, and only needed to add one or two units every edition to keep them up to date. That's ok for a cottage-size company of two, not so much for a big fat corporation.

Another big issue might be, especially for 40k, rules bloat. I know people have been saying 8th ed is amazing, but to me, not having played actively for close to 10 years, it's an arcane, byzantine mess of books, stratagems, doctrines and whatnots. That and the soupening of lists (as far as I understand) makes it for very beginner-unfriendly experience.

 H wrote:

Lord Kragan wrote:
Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

Well, I think the point is more that a "robust report" doesn't necessarily mean that current business practices are long-term stable.

It also doesn't mean that they are not. In the end, the report only tells us what the report actually says, that currently, financials look "good." That could turn around. Or, not.

This. Their reports during the Lord of the Rings boom would have been incredibly robust.


Up until the point where the boom ended and they weren't, which preceded the long decline under the Kirby regime.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Cronch wrote:

To sustain sales GW has to invalidate old product and replace it with something new

That is inevitable in any collection-based hobby or game. it's what killed WFB (to some degree, there were many issues with it)- people had close to 20 years of collections worth, and only needed to add one or two units every edition to keep them up to date. That's ok for a cottage-size company of two, not so much for a big fat corporation.

This is only an issue if you are failing to bring in new players.

This is only an issue if you are failing to bring in new players.

Wargaming is a niche hobby. GW is already the biggest company in that niche. The pool of new blood always was and always will be limited. That's why, I think, they adapted the strategy of making very focused battletomes of 10-15 units max (save stuff like Stormcast or soups like Skaven) to entice existing players to cross-collect. You can finish 2000pts of Idoneth fairly easily, so why not start an orruk army that's equally easy to "complete collection" of?

Cronch wrote:
The pool of new blood always was and always will be limited.

I mean, only if people have suddenly stopped reproducing.

 EnTyme wrote:

Cronch wrote:
The pool of new blood always was and always will be limited.

I mean, only if people have suddenly stopped reproducing.

Out of the limited population of human beings on this earth, the population that is interested in scale modelling AND boardgaming at the same time is very limited. Considering the fact that fewer children get born now than in the past, and those children now have many more options for entertainment, yes, the pool of new players is limited.

That's . . . not how trends work.

Good for GW!

Sadly, they have largely priced me out of their games. It is not just the ever increasing price of their kits but it is also the subtle way that they decrease the points costs of models, which forces you to buy more product to have a complete army.

Even then, I would probably still be playing 40k regularly (with the massive amount of models I have already) if not for the fact that I do not find 8th edition to be a very rewarding game. It is so focused on alpha strikes, which is not really fun for the guy alpha striking or the guy losing before he ever gets to play. Then there is the issue with how CP is generated and the way it forces many armies to add a Battallion of cheap men just to get extra CP, which I also find distasteful.

Honestly, I look forward to 9th edition, hopefully that will refine 8th edition and make it a better game, after all I I was not a fan of 3rd edition but I did like its refined versions (4th and 5th).

 EnTyme wrote:
That's . . . not how trends work.

I'll be happy to hear where I am wrong in my thinking.

I can see GW being in a good place considering their branching out into different lines.

It certainly doesn't mean/feel 40k is in a good place. I feel they are letting that particular ship sink a little bit every day. My warp sense is telling me 40k end times will be upon us sooner or later for that sweet sweet reboot $$$$..

Removed

This really is getting pathetic now. Will see all you doomsayers here again next year with even more profits reported! hahahaha!

Lord Kragan wrote:
Man, gotta admit the fact some folks somehow see the doom on a robust report.

I think this is probably GW's peak. Like, the amount of stuff they are releasing at the prices they are releasing them at, I think they've turned a corner in the past few months where they've pushed a little too far, and I think the players have been maybe milked about as much as they can be milked. I've been seeing a lot of people say that GW has priced them out (myself included). This morning, Miniature Market had 65 copies of Necromunda: Dark Uprising available, and now, five hours later, they have 65 copies available.

This good news represents how well GW did before, but GW has really lost their mind since Blood of the Phoenix. The effects of this new pricing strategy, mixed with Brexit and a general over-saturation of the market, will not be felt for months, or even years. Making money off your current customers is great - awesome, even - but with an aging audience and a failure to bring in new players, it won't take much to lose all of it in a very short time. Like Warmachine, 40k might be one bad edition change, or one economic downturn, away from disaster. 40k won't collapse completely, but it will shrink considerably. It has to. It can't really get much bigger.

And I don't think GW is in danger, as a company. I think they've got tons of money and a strong IP. But I think their profits are going to start shrinking soon, and I think people are starting to leave GW for alternatives, as they've been priced out of participation. I think a return to the Kirby-era GW is almost inevitable. In short, GW is at the tip of the peak, it's all downhill from here. A lot of decisions they are making now are going to end up hurting them for a while, and they should've been spending the past year or so trying to create sustainable product lines instead of flooding the market with expensive limited editions. They've traded short term profit for long term viability.

The tinfoil hattery in this thread is quite amusing.

 Inquisitor Gideon wrote:
The tinfoil hattery in this thread is quite amusing.

It's the same every time the financial numbers are released.

Sqorgar- what alternatives are you thinking of? A lot of small companies have collapsed in the last year, and the medium-weight players in the industry are making their own dumb decisions.

Competition-wise, GW seems in a better position now than it was five years ago.

I will say they are seriously pissing off the competitive crowds. When you release new and updated SMs, and each month you release an even more powerful meta chaser, it forces people to radically alter their lists month to month.

I'm pretty sure there are a lot of black space marine models with Blue, white and black on their armor, which then became black and silver.

I agree that GW are in much better position, and it is the change of mentality from the Kirby era that is leading the way. Long may it continue.

I am glad they are more of a Games company as well as a miniature company too.

Thing is, even GW confirm in their report the current boom cannot possibly last. Because ultimately it’s true.

However, last time around it was their first venture into big time licensing. LOTR brought in a lot of money. And when that bubble burst? They had no real plan to settle it.

Yet, in a bizarre way, the cuts it lead to in staffing numbers and underperforming stores meant when the global crash hit a few years later, they’d already done what other high street retailers suddenly had to do. And with minimal borrowing.

And as I’ve said time and time again, it’s borrowing ( or gearing in the lingo, apparently) that does for other companies.

See, when you borrow money to fund expansion, whether rapid or conservative, you’re exposing your business to risk.

When times are good, refinancing is usually an option. You can negotiate a lower interest rate over a longer term. The bank ultimately makes more, but it’s sustainable for your income,

During the crash, the banks were of course risk adverse, and weren’t lending. And so those companies in the UK at least that had borrowed heavily could no longer service the debts, despite being otherwise nominally profitable. Big high street names, such as Woolworths went they way of the dodo.

But GW has typically taken a ‘cash in hand’ approach to expansion and product development. That in turns mean they’re quite well insulated against financial shocks, regardless of where they stem from.

If profits slide (and they really need to slide fast and hard to hit a loss), they’ve relatively benign options open to them. This could be laying off some staff from multi-staff stores, to reassessing where their stores are, and perhaps reducing saturation in given areas (rough example for illustration, reducing from 6 stores in a 50 mile radius to 4) without particularly impacting availability.

Then there’s their manufacturing side. They do the vast majority in-house, barring certain scenery kits which are made in China (for reasons I don’t know. Perhaps someone can throw a bone there?). So they’re not at the mercy of a manufacturer going under, and affecting their supply chain.

Finally, as others have pointed out, they’ve seriously diversified their offerings over the past three or so years. Proper skirmish games are back. Underworlds in particular is seemingly doing well. It’s incredibly affordable, even for GW. On the face of it, that should make the game unprofitable. But, when you’re selling fixed warband, people will want a new challenge fairly quickly. And at £17.50 to £20.00 each, it’s fairly easy to sell most if not all Warbands to most players.

For now, the future looks pretty rosey. Yes prices are going up, but hey that’s capitalism for you, and nothing unusual in the wider world. And I don’t think they’re in much danger of tickling the wider price ceiling for some time.

After all, it may cost say, £600 for an army. But if you use that army for a year? It’s £50.00 a month. That’s....that’s not bad for any hobby. No?

I believe the outsourcing to China was to help continue to keep up with all the new kits they were producing, they simply didnt have the number of machines at home to work on making all those kits in the same amount of time. China is also very cheap when you compare its plastic mold production to elsewhere (including domestically)

Honestly, they probably just wanted to start developing some external partners to help with temporary needs for output. Basically contractors who can produce extra for peak times or if there's some kind of local issue that are easy to cut when things drop off. The mercenaries of toy production and all.

The Japanese prices are seriously nuts. I think Dark Uprising was already over 40,000 yen and I have yet to encounter a store offering anything close to the discounts we get elsewhere.

That's almost an extra hundred dollars tacked on for no apparent reason.

It sucks there aren't many other options for small scale tabletop models in Japan.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Thing is, even GW confirm in their report the current boom cannot possibly last. Because ultimately it’s true.

However, last time around it was their first venture into big time licensing. LOTR brought in a lot of money. And when that bubble burst? They had no real plan to settle it.

Yet, in a bizarre way, the cuts it lead to in staffing numbers and underperforming stores meant when the global crash hit a few years later, they’d already done what other high street retailers suddenly had to do. And with minimal borrowing.

And as I’ve said time and time again, it’s borrowing ( or gearing in the lingo, apparently) that does for other companies.

See, when you borrow money to fund expansion, whether rapid or conservative, you’re exposing your business to risk.

When times are good, refinancing is usually an option. You can negotiate a lower interest rate over a longer term. The bank ultimately makes more, but it’s sustainable for your income,

During the crash, the banks were of course risk adverse, and weren’t lending. And so those companies in the UK at least that had borrowed heavily could no longer service the debts, despite being otherwise nominally profitable. Big high street names, such as Woolworths went they way of the dodo.

But GW has typically taken a ‘cash in hand’ approach to expansion and product development. That in turns mean they’re quite well insulated against financial shocks, regardless of where they stem from.

If profits slide (and they really need to slide fast and hard to hit a loss), they’ve relatively benign options open to them. This could be laying off some staff from multi-staff stores, to reassessing where their stores are, and perhaps reducing saturation in given areas (rough example for illustration, reducing from 6 stores in a 50 mile radius to 4) without particularly impacting availability.

Then there’s their manufacturing side. They do the vast majority in-house, barring certain scenery kits which are made in China (for reasons I don’t know. Perhaps someone can throw a bone there?). So they’re not at the mercy of a manufacturer going under, and affecting their supply chain.

Finally, as others have pointed out, they’ve seriously diversified their offerings over the past three or so years. Proper skirmish games are back. Underworlds in particular is seemingly doing well. It’s incredibly affordable, even for GW. On the face of it, that should make the game unprofitable. But, when you’re selling fixed warband, people will want a new challenge fairly quickly. And at £17.50 to £20.00 each, it’s fairly easy to sell most if not all Warbands to most players.

For now, the future looks pretty rosey. Yes prices are going up, but hey that’s capitalism for you, and nothing unusual in the wider world. And I don’t think they’re in much danger of tickling the wider price ceiling for some time.

After all, it may cost say, £600 for an army. But if you use that army for a year? It’s £50.00 a month. That’s....that’s not bad for any hobby. No?

How dare you bring logic and reason into this sir..
People will brand you a GW apologist and white knight.. The cost one is a long-running sentiment and its getting old to hear. It's not that they are pushing customers out of the hobby its that they are pushing the complaint mongers out of the hobby. At the end of the day, don't like don't buy it. I never understood this complaint. If something is clearly overpriced I just won't buy it period or get it from eBay and bide my time... Its not just GW. High-quality minature are expensive...The hobby supplies arent cheap... If you want some sub-par quality stuff, then you have suppliers for that also.

Well done to GW, happy to see they continue to make a crap tone of cash, really enjoying what they are producing at the moment, a genuine second golden era . The numbers will be even higher next half year with the sisters on the way

its that they are pushing the complaint mongers out of the hobby

Yep yep, just like during Kirby era, when all the naysayers went away and GW had to work posthaste to change and act like they're nice people now. I really don't get people who stand up for corporations, they're rich enough to take care of themselves.

Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

I had expected it to be ether quite good, or very bleak at this point.
They seem to be producing more and faster, but also prices going up fast as well.
But some products are still left in quite a poor state, 40k may be the one in the worst state at this point.

Pricing is worrying, as right now I think some boxes are hitting extremes here that I not sure can see much more of a rise before breaking.
Could be they are so aggressive in there business approach they have many years left as well before they need to change any strategy.

Good for them.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Cronch wrote:

its that they are pushing the complaint mongers out of the hobby

Yep yep, just like during Kirby era, when all the naysayers went away and GW had to work posthaste to change and act like they're nice people now. I really don't get people who stand up for corporations, they're rich enough to take care of themselves.

GW is the Apple of this hobby.

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

The exception to the rule, perhaps? Not the best thing to hang a hat on to determine the "downfall" of GW. The Sisters box is going to be hang busters regardless of value.

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

Other indie companies managed to order and shift them well enough .

 Daedalus81 wrote:

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

The exception to the rule, perhaps? Not the best thing to hang a hat on to determine the "downfall" of GW. The Sisters box is going to be hang busters regardless of value.

Assuming it has loads and loads of copies and it really is going to sell out and GW isn’t just creating some artificial scarcity.

Obispudkenobi wrote:

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

Other indie companies managed to order and shift them well enough .

This is an interesting question.

On one hand, you’re spot on. The copies are still sold so far as GW care.

But? If third party suppliers find GW are making a habit of lumping them with non-moving stock? In future, that very much hits GW’s bottom line.

But. To balance. Those nay-saying, purely on the price tag? Time well tell. I absolutely agree a single boxed set was waaaaay too expensive for what it offered.

See, there’s the difference between price and value. As long as the consumer perceives value, the price isn’t really a factor. Now, value is of course incredibly subjective.

Voss wrote:
Sqorgar- what alternatives are you thinking of? A lot of small companies have collapsed in the last year, and the medium-weight players in the industry are making their own dumb decisions.

Competition-wise, GW seems in a better position now than it was five years ago.

Honestly, I think GW's biggest competitor right now is Kickstarter, since it works in a similar way to GW's sales strategy - limited time, expensive prestige products that sell largely before anyone has a chance to crack the shrink wrap. Once that window closes, it is on to the next hype (often without even playing it). How easy is it to get excited about a $300 Necromunda box right after pumping a bunch of cash into a Zombicide kickstarter? It really does seem like there is room for both right now, but is their room for three? Four? Six? And for how long?

But beyond that, I think the most crucial place that GW is losing players is that the trend is now pushing towards shorter, more cooperative (even solo) games. The days of spending all weekend playing a single game of Axis and Allies is more or less behind us. GW, to their credit, does seem to realize this, and games like Kill Team and Underworlds were actual efforts at creating short game experiences, and it has been successful - but I think they are mainly taking players from their existing games rather than creating new fans.

Watching the Warhammer TV interviews, it seems like most of the people currently working at GW got their start with Hero Quest (or Space Hulk), but these days, people are getting that important first experience from GW's competitors. GW does have Blackstone Fortress, but it is really expensive ($110 for an expansion!) and the game isn't really better than what the competitors are offering. You can't buy Blackstone Fortress at the local Target, but you can get Imperial Assault or Zombicide there. Over on BoardGameGeek, Zombicide has 15k ratings, Imperial Assault has 18k ratings, while Blackstone Fortress has 579.

Right now, I don't think 40k itself has many natural competitors, but is starting to lose people by pricing them out (Blood of the Phoenix style). In that case, they'll look for something similar to 40k, but cheaper (like Star Wars Legion). But I think people aren't getting their Hero Quest moment from GW anymore. They are getting it somewhere else. They aren't becoming lifelong miniature gamers, they are becoming lifelong board gamers. They are falling in love with the same experiences, but letting it take them somewhere else. Somewhere not GW.

Obispudkenobi wrote:

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

It could be a problem for GW (as well as EG of course). We don't know if Element Games over-ordered or the stock simply didn't sell as expected. Considering a huge amount of GW sales come from such kind of partners, if these don't perform as intended it will eventually affect GW. In these type of situations, it can lead to stocking lower amount of products in the future due to anticipating lower sales, for example (less profit for everyone involved). Of course a gw account manager knows the answer better, but it is recommended that your business partners are healthy and don't have dead stock lying around.



More on topic, I guess it's great that they are making big money. But as a simple customer, I really don't care if a selected few are reaping the profits, just like with any other corporation.
I'm more concerned with their products actually being appealing enough for me to throw them the money. Unfortunately, it is currently not so much the case but maybe that changes in the future. Until then, it's simply one more of those fat corporations making loads, which at the end of the day is overall irrelevant.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

Obispudkenobi wrote:

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

Other indie companies managed to order and shift them well enough .

This is an interesting question.

On one hand, you’re spot on. The copies are still sold so far as GW care.

But? If third party suppliers find GW are making a habit of lumping them with non-moving stock? In future, that very much hits GW’s bottom line.

But. To balance. Those nay-saying, purely on the price tag? Time well tell. I absolutely agree a single boxed set was waaaaay too expensive for what it offered.

See, there’s the difference between price and value. As long as the consumer perceives value, the price isn’t really a factor. Now, value is of course incredibly subjective.

I would agree if it was all Indies in the same boat, looking at gifts for geeks and darksphere who are elements main indie rivals they have single digits left of this box set, so one can only assume that element went in too heavy with their order to be left with such a high amount, and as such really doesn't prove the set was a failure as someone put it, yes it was more money than expected but still saved the buyer money.
Element will likely do some form of black Friday sale and reduce them to cost and recoup the investment so no harm no foul.

I know that a lot of people will scoff at this idea, but I think that this might just be the beginning of a truly astronomical rise in terms of company value and profits.

We are witnessing the beginning of the streaming wars, with several multi-billion dollar companies all throwing their hats into the ring. As others have mentioned, the LOTR films were huge for GW and with Amazon putting literally hundreds of millions into their new LOTR series, it could spark a renewed interest in the miniture line.

Also... with 'Eisenhorn' now in production, GW has a big and rich enough IP that could potentially spawn something similar to what we have seen with other properties such as DC, Marvel, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones etc. Who knows what the future will bring but people who are saying that this is the "peak" might be surprised.

VBS wrote:

Obispudkenobi wrote:

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

It could be a problem for GW (as well as EG of course). We don't know if Element Games over-ordered or the stock simply didn't sell as expected. Considering a huge amount of GW sales come from such kind of partners, if these don't perform as intended it will eventually affect GW. In these type of situations, it can lead to stocking lower amount of products in the future due to anticipating lower sales, for example (less profit for everyone involved). Of course a gw account manager knows the answer better, but it is recommended that your business partners are healthy and don't have dead stock lying around.

We've entered an era in which there are so many competing products on the market distributors have basically given up on restocking things. They buy what they think will sell out and won't reorder, even if there's demand, because they frankly don't have to. Oh, your players want more Looncurse? Well, we're gearing up for Crisis Protocol this week so no thanks. Let us know how many copies of the Sisters box you want though, because we won't bother ordering it if you want it later either. After it launches we'll be too busy shipping out Christmas editions of Gloomhaven.

GW is producing what it thinks will sell out because they get one shot to do so. If they sell out, distributors will make a bigger purchase next time. If they don't, distributors will buy less. Production itself is pretty trivial. They likely produce a good amount of extra sprues expecting to package them later into other sets. It's a weird state of the market and why you're seeing most games shift to big bang releases of box sets instead of an eternal product catalog players can shop from at their leisure.

 LunarSol wrote:

VBS wrote:

Obispudkenobi wrote:

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

It could be a problem for GW (as well as EG of course). We don't know if Element Games over-ordered or the stock simply didn't sell as expected. Considering a huge amount of GW sales come from such kind of partners, if these don't perform as intended it will eventually affect GW. In these type of situations, it can lead to stocking lower amount of products in the future due to anticipating lower sales, for example (less profit for everyone involved). Of course a gw account manager knows the answer better, but it is recommended that your business partners are healthy and don't have dead stock lying around.

We've entered an era in which there are so many competing products on the market distributors have basically given up on restocking things. They buy what they think will sell out and won't reorder, even if there's demand, because they frankly don't have to. Oh, your players want more Looncurse? Well, we're gearing up for Crisis Protocol this week so no thanks. Let us know how many copies of the Sisters box you want though, because we won't bother ordering it if you want it later either. After it launches we'll be too busy shipping out Christmas editions of Gloomhaven.

GW is producing what it thinks will sell out because they get one shot to do so. If they sell out, distributors will make a bigger purchase next time. If they don't, distributors will buy less. Production itself is pretty trivial. They likely produce a good amount of extra sprues expecting to package them later into other sets. It's a weird state of the market and why you're seeing most games shift to big bang releases of box sets instead of an eternal product catalog players can shop from at their leisure.

Its a marketing strategy based around praying on FOMO. And its very effective 8-9/10 esepcialy in this consumerism ramped up to 11 society. They have also seem to create shortages in strategic places as well as not be transparent at all in their product plans in the long term and its very clever... "Get it now because you never know if it will be available again".

Sure, its tinfoilish, but its ruthless and makes logical sense. Their pricing model they use never really made logical sense so its the explanation I came up with lol.

"Yahoo is part of Verizon Media. Verizon Media and our partners need your consent to access your device and use your data (including location) to understand your interests, and provide and measure personalised ads. Verizon Media will also provide you with personalised ads on partner products. Learn more. Select 'OK' to continue and allow Verizon Media and our partners to use your data, or select 'Manage options' to view your choices."

Here is an archive version: http://archive.is/YiD5h

 Hollow wrote:
We are witnessing the beginning of the streaming wars, with several multi-billion dollar companies all throwing their hats into the ring. As others have mentioned, the LOTR films were huge for GW and with Amazon putting literally hundreds of millions into their new LOTR series, it could spark a renewed interest in the miniture line.

This is possible, but only if the Amazon show pulls in the viewers, and also if GW makes the Middle Earth SBG more accessible. Right now, it is kind of a mess and difficult to acquire outside of GW's website.

Also, I'm not sure that GW's license applies to Amazon's series (since it is an original work, taking place thousands of years before LotR), so you wouldn't necessarily see the new characters, battles, or events represented on the tabletop with GW miniatures. If someone else gets it (like FFG, who also has a Tolkien license), it'll probably take away business from GW.

Also... with 'Eisenhorn' now in production, GW has a big and rich enough IP that could potentially spawn something similar to what we have seen with other properties such as DC, Marvel, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones etc. Who knows what the future will bring but people who are saying that this is the "peak" might be surprised.

40k fans enjoy Eisenhorn, but I'm not sure the reverse will be true. I don't think people are going to see Eisenhorn and think, gee, I wonder what a battle between 200 space marines would play like? If GW was smart, they'd come up with something more intimate to go alongside the launch. Maybe bring back Inquisitor, or make an Eisenhorn version of Warhammer Quest.

 Sqorgar wrote:
But what happens when GW stops bringing in new players because the prices are too high?

The prices have been too high for 40 years. When are you expecting this to occur exactly?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Cronch wrote:

 EnTyme wrote:

Cronch wrote:
The pool of new blood always was and always will be limited.

I mean, only if people have suddenly stopped reproducing.

Out of the limited population of human beings on this earth, the population that is interested in scale modelling AND boardgaming at the same time is very limited. Considering the fact that fewer children get born now than in the past, and those children now have many more options for entertainment, yes, the pool of new players is limited.

This is so fantastic on so many levels. Thank you.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

Obispudkenobi wrote:

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

Other indie companies managed to order and shift them well enough .

This is an interesting question.

On one hand, you’re spot on. The copies are still sold so far as GW care.

But? If third party suppliers find GW are making a habit of lumping them with non-moving stock? In future, that very much hits GW’s bottom line..

But. To balance. Those nay-saying, purely on the price tag? Time well tell. I absolutely agree a single boxed set was waaaaay too expensive for what it offered.

Fair points chap and I suspect Blood has also done fairly well with box splitters (based on ebay), being able to shift the contents and still turn a profit (although the surplus of Hellions and Vypers might be a PITA) so for all our squeeking I don;t think it'll change GW thinking

 Sqorgar wrote:

Maybe bring back Inquisitor, or make an Eisenhorn version of Warhammer Quest.

There's a line from Archer that springs to mind

 Argive wrote:

Its a marketing strategy based around praying on FOMO. And its very effective 8-9/10 esepcialy in this consumerism ramped up to 11 society. They have also seem to create shortages in strategic places as well as not be transparent at all in their product plans in the long term and its very clever... "Get it now because you never know if it will be available again".

Sure, its tinfoilish, but its ruthless and makes logical sense. Their pricing model they use never really made logical sense so its the explanation I came up with lol.

I'd agree if GW was alone in their actions, but I follow a pretty large variety of companies and that just doesn't totally line up with what I'm seeing at any level; from the FLGS to interviews with developers. That's not to say that GW isn't doing things to increase profit. I have no assumption of any sort of altruism. It's just been my experience that when a company seems as committed to their craft as GW has been since Kirby left; unpopular decisions are usually motivated by external factors. In this instance, I think more than anything we're seeing GW react to a market in which the old model of high up front production costs of plastic molds that turns into pure profit as people keep buying Ork Boyz decades later isn't holding up. There's always something new whether GW is making it or someone else and GW isn't going to let that be someone else.

 Inquisitor Kallus wrote:

There's a line from Archer that springs to mind

"You want ants? Because that's how you get ants." ?

Just to add a little extra here's something from the Financial Times of all things:

https://www.ft.com/content/a89ead4e-05fd-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

700% surge in shares and a 1.5 bn market value and all this tin foil hattery in this thread. heh.

 Turnip Jedi wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

Obispudkenobi wrote:

 Galas wrote:
Blood of the poenix was a huge failure. Just look for hiw many copies Element Games has, or Gobling gaming.
Thats a good thing if GW draws the correct conclusion (The value wasnt there) and not the wrong ones (Xenos vs Xenos dont sell)

Surely if Element games has bought loads from GW the manufacturer it's a success? It's not GWs problem if Element games over ordered

Other indie companies managed to order and shift them well enough .

This is an interesting question.

On one hand, you’re spot on. The copies are still sold so far as GW care.

But? If third party suppliers find GW are making a habit of lumping them with non-moving stock? In future, that very much hits GW’s bottom line..

But. To balance. Those nay-saying, purely on the price tag? Time well tell. I absolutely agree a single boxed set was waaaaay too expensive for what it offered.

Fair points chap and I suspect Blood has also done fairly well with box splitters (based on ebay), being able to shift the contents and still turn a profit (although the surplus of Hellions and Vypers might be a PITA) so for all our squeeking I don;t think it'll change GW thinking

Yet it might.

We know GW are actively listening to their market.

So whilst they almost certainly made no loss with that set, it has been roundly, and justifiably criticised for its price tag compared to the contents.

To again compare to the new Necromunda set. Most of the Necromunda set is new content. And even the Palanite’s are new enough to be attractive. So whilst expensive, it’s easier to perceive the value.

The Phoenix box? Well, the new models are very nice, I don’t think there’s any denying. And the two characters in particular welcome additions. But they can be bought outside of the set, given time. For existing players, there was limited appeal, price aside. Seriously. It could’ve matched Feast of Bone (or whatever it was) with the £110 price tag, and still be considered of poorer value.

Perhaps it was a toe in the water. Maybe it was priced as a result of an arcane and unknowable pricing structure. Us mere plebs will likely never know.

But it’s the first thing in a good while that’s genuinely disgruntled GW’s customers. And when I say genuinely, I mean even the most deliberately obtuse of GW fans can’t really argue it was a poor show.

So I put it to my fellow Dakkanauts that GW were testing the Price Ceiling, and found it’s not that high. And in theory, it was a good set to try it on with. Everything in it is either pre-existing, or going to be released separately. Even if third party sellers trade their stock in (which I believe they can?), the sets can be easily broken down and repackaged as their stock versions. So GW we’re playing from a fairly protected position.

 Inquisitor Gideon wrote:
Just to add a little extra here's something from the Financial Times of all things:

https://www.ft.com/content/a89ead4e-05fd-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

700% surge in shares and a 1.5 bn market value and all this tin foil hattery in this thread. heh.

Why is it "tin-foil hat" material to wonder if the current market paradigm is long-term stable? Or if the current release velocity is long-term sustainable?

What necessitates that good results right now guarantee future good results?

Are we to really imagine that future results are not contingent upon the dynamics of future circumstances. but rather only necessitated by past results?

Sure, some people take weird stances on things, but there is a reasonable level of skepticism that seems rational. The question does not need to presuppose the answer. Is this all long-term stable and sustainable? Unclear, we can only wait and see.

I think when people start saying tin foil hat theories they mean those saying that GW will crash and burn suddenly without question or suddenly triple the prices on everything in one week etc.. Ergo really off the wall theories.

Even GW has kept saying in their reports that their growth is not long term sustainable at this rate. They are clearly gunning for as much as they can, but they know and are open about the fact that it will eventually stop growing and level out. It might even reduce. However the core is that GW is going to remain profitable and; avoiding any major global disasters, should remain profitable for a good period of the future. They also ahve a lot of assets to strip out and downscale if things got really bad - if they have too. Of course msot of those are tied up with UK factories and highstreet stores - so dropping them might not be so simple (yes they can drop stores but then they've got to be tactical and ensure that there's local 3rd parties or club systems to take up the slack otherwise its saving money in year 1 and killing sales in year 2)

 An Actual Englishman wrote:
The next 6 months will be interesting.

Interest seems to be waning, sales seem to be dropping (BotP still has stock) and in general there seem to be less players, not more.

No doubt the success (or not) of Sisters, and Slaves to Darkness will be key, not to mention PA.

Good news, but I wonder how long GW can sustain this growth.

bubbles pop.
explosive carp... explosive carp. and its gone...
though I have to add, compared to the way that Star Wars went,
40K is almost not so bad.

I see more hasbro-ification of the brand.
that is big money, not in whales but in units sold.
until they end up in the 99cent bin with some stuff.
by then with so many markets saturated every which way,
they seem to have some room for growth.
I wanna see Ork tees at Walmart.
That is, if I ever went near a Walmart.

 H wrote:

 Inquisitor Gideon wrote:
Just to add a little extra here's something from the Financial Times of all things:

https://www.ft.com/content/a89ead4e-05fd-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

700% surge in shares and a 1.5 bn market value and all this tin foil hattery in this thread. heh.

Why is it "tin-foil hat" material to wonder if the current market paradigm is long-term stable? Or if the current release velocity is long-term sustainable?

What necessitates that good results right now guarantee future good results?

Are we to really imagine that future results are not contingent upon the dynamics of future circumstances. but rather only necessitated by past results?

Sure, some people take weird stances on things, but there is a reasonable level of skepticism that seems rational. The question does not need to presuppose the answer. Is this all long-term stable and sustainable? Unclear, we can only wait and see.

This is why I think we’ve recently received 3+ years of notice that WHFB will return.

It’s attention grabbing. And as much as I for one enjoy AoS, it’s welcome news.

They’ve promised Sisters of Battle type updates. That keeps eyes on GW, and in theory and intent, off would be competitors. That’s a move we wouldn’t have seen under Kirby. Because it’s very, very cunning.

It’s all over the relevant parts of the inter web, and has got Nerd jaws a-flappin. They’ve just generated word-of-mouth at a stroke.

That is smart business. Like, really smart. Give the people what they want is in nerd terms not a bad thing. And to potential future investors? It’s a signal they’re about to exploit yet another revenue stream, at the cost of their competitors.

Seriously. What can Mantic, PP and Warlord do to match such an announcement? From someone I know that works for Mantic, their response video was put together in half an hour. And she’s someone I absolutely trust to not just be claiming that.

The rest? Caught flat footed.

It’s a damned good move, and for a now cash rich company, pretty low risk. AoS is a bread winner. Therefore, so long as WHFB at least breaks even, it’s all good in the hood, because every penny thrown at GW isn’t going to someone else.

 Overread wrote:
I think when people start saying tin foil hat theories they mean those saying that GW will crash and burn suddenly without question or suddenly triple the prices on everything in one week etc.. Ergo really off the wall theories.

But GW did suddenly double the prices on everything in one week... At least, everything in a big box.

And I don't think GW will crash and burn, but I think they are poised to contract considerably. It will be worse than most people are probably expecting. At this point, I think GW is less creating new players so much as cannibalizing their own sales, even to the point of exhausting their customers. They've flooded the market with content that is, frankly, becoming hard to differentiate and the quality and value of which is shrinking. Their marketing and product releases are getting dangerously close to whale hunting, and while stuff like Farmville, Candy Crush, and Fortnite can have a few good years of outstanding profit, it never lasts, and it salts the fields so that nothing else will grow. Remember when Guitar Hero and Rockband were the biggest names in video games? What was the last music game that didn't instantly go into the clearance bin? Putting short term profit ahead of long term sustainability is generally a pretty short sighted way to do business.

I think GW has spent the last couple years building new bridges to replace the ones that it unceremoniously burned down before... only to start burning those too. Except right now, the ropes are just burning in one or two spots and the bridge can still be saved. So, I think it is worth being critical of GW when there's still a chance that they will listen.

Well, people say all sort of strange nonsensical things for all sort of reasons. Skepticism, tempered, is not a bad thing though. When people say weird, unfounded things, I like to just move on. Likely the are fact-resistant humans anyway.

As has been said though, even GW realized this is a hyper-release phase. Which, actually, thinking about it some more, makes me think this move back into WHFB makes more sense. That market is likely somewhat long-term stable, given GW previous retraction didn't kill it. In fact, it's alive enough for there to be all sort of people, shops, and systems making money off it. It won't be a blockbuster in all likelihood, but they don't need it to be.

One of the best ways to be protected from a downturn is to be "diversified." It's good business sense, I think. Having multiple lines, made for multiple markets and market segments likely makes a good bit of sense in the long-term. I don't see GW getting into health care, food, or space exploration, so it likely makes some sense to diversify what miniature offerings they have. The RnF market, where they already have substantial "assets" and ready-made product line available with "minimal" more investment needed seems like a sort of no-brainer. In fact, so little brain is needed that I basically told them in the last two community surveys that not remaking Tomb Kings was actually close to them throwing money away.

I'm not particularly smart, or insightful. I'm pretty stupid and even I can see it makes business sense to sell things you already have if people actually want them.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Seriously. What can Mantic, PP and Warlord do to match such an announcement?

Near as I can tell, Kings of War is only as popular as it is because of WHFB refugees. In the years that Mantic has had the game, they don't seem to have done much to differentiate the game or to create brand loyalty. It's more like they just left it at "we're almost the best of most of the rest" (Mantic's mission statement). They had a golden opportunity and did nothing with it, so it is hard to feel too much pity when they've squandered so much.

Not sure Privateer Press or Warlord are even in the same market. PP will show the next Warmachine game in a few months and MonPoc seems to be doing pretty well, while Warlord probably isn't worried too much that all their Bolt Action players will leave. I would think that CMON's Song of Ice and Fire and Para Bellum's Conquest would be the most worried, but SoI&F won't last three more years and Conquest seems to be actively interested in carving out a niche for itself.

 Sqorgar wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Seriously. What can Mantic, PP and Warlord do to match such an announcement?

Near as I can tell, Kings of War is only as popular as it is because of WHFB refugees. In the years that Mantic has had the game, they don't seem to have done much to differentiate the game or to create brand loyalty. It's more like they just left it at "we're almost the best of most of the rest" (Mantic's mission statement). They had a golden opportunity and did nothing with it, so it is hard to feel too much pity when they've squandered so much.

Not sure Privateer Press or Warlord are even in the same market. PP will show the next Warmachine game in a few months and MonPoc seems to be doing pretty well, while Warlord probably isn't worried too much that all their Bolt Action players will leave. I would think that CMON's Song of Ice and Fire and Para Bellum's Conquest would be the most worried, but SoI&F won't last three more years and Conquest seems to be actively interested in carving out a niche for itself.

I'd imagine wait and see how badly GW prices it, nudge their prices up whilst still looking reasonable and hope folks arent daft enough to go back, beyond maybe a BRB and Army book

I think the wargame market has serious competition from video games and the fact that many other hands-on hobbies are dead in the water. GW is pushing hard for new customers though - all those new cheap to get into starting sets like Warcry and Killteam. Sure some of their duel army boxes are creeping up and up in price (even though they are still heavily discounted); yet those were always "more" of a lure for existing gamers.

In the end their market should be seeing some expansion and I think GW is taking it seriously that they are the gateway brand into wargaming - certainly for fantasy and sci fi. As a result all those KS companies and all those other brands are more likely leaching off current and former GW customers. So if GW wants expansion they are either luring those customers back; or getting fresh blood into the hobby.
Seeing them get officially into the UK Duke of Edinburgh and School systems tells me that they are going after new people with what they can. Brand outreach is the other area- all those licence products don't just generate money they get people ware of GW as a brand and a company.

Also a part of me thinks that if wargamers online keep complaining that new people aren't joining wargames then - if those people are playing at local clubs - then "part" of it has to be those local clubs not recruiting new wargames too.

 Overread wrote:
GW is pushing hard for new customers though - all those new cheap to get into starting sets like Warcry and Killteam.

You think $170 sets are cheap to get into? How out of touch are you? Sir, the peasants can't afford bread to eat. Then let them eat avocado toast...

Sure some of their duel army boxes are creeping up and up in price (even though they are still heavily discounted); yet those were always "more" of a lure for existing gamers.

"Creeping up in price" may be the understatement of the thread. As for luring existing gamers, I think that's how it is NOW, but that's not how it used to be even a few years ago. They used to be a dumping ground for old models and they were mostly useful for new players - and you could still get them months, even years, after release. But with the Necron/Adeptus Mechanicus box, they started premiering new models in with the old, such that existing players wanted these boxes just because they had units that wouldn't be available separately for months and months (still waiting on all the new models from every AoS two army box released this year).

I think GW is taking it seriously that they are the gateway brand into wargaming - certainly for fantasy and sci fi.

I don't think that has been true for a while now. I think board games have been much more successful in this area, with stuff like X-Wing Miniatures, Imperial Assault, or Zombicide being the real gateway for newer miniature games. In fact, I think many of them stay at that level, content to collect and paint board game miniatures rather than move to the hobbyist model kits. I mean, how can GW be a gateway game when you can't even buy anything they make in a toy store?

This may be different in the UK, where Warhammer Stores are more accessible, but the nearest Warhammer store to me is about 4 hours away. Nobody anywhere near me is going to happen upon Games Workshop stuff. But X-Wing Miniatures is sold in the bookstore.

Also a part of me thinks that if wargamers online keep complaining that new people aren't joining wargames then - if those people are playing at local clubs - then "part" of it has to be those local clubs not recruiting new wargames too.

I don't think playing at clubs is really that fundamental to the hobby anymore. At least in the US. Partly, I think most places in the US don't have access to anything like that. The only place to play pickup games in my city is one of the two tables in the back of a comic book store. And partly, I think more people are playing with just their small community of friends already, and not really venturing out to play strange games with strange people. Not when they can whip out Gloomhaven every Friday night.

I think the online community could be more accommodating of new players. I started with Age of Sigmar's launch and I was treated like I was a flat earther carrying the plague. But like people playing on their kitchen tables, I think people are largely avoiding (or perhaps just lurking) at large forums like this and instead choosing to participate in smaller Facebook groups. I mean, right now, there's 27,000 people reading Dakka Dakka, but for some reason, I only see the same two dozen posters, each with a few thousand posts. Meanwhile, I see much more active participation over on Board Game Geek from a much more diverse crowd of people participating.

The Nottingham-headquartered firm added that it expects its pre-tax profits for the period to be at least £55 million.

Pre-tax so according to George Harrison tax calculations the post-tax profits would be 2.75 million.

All good fun. GW is doing well and no doubt they will continue to do so as long as the keep true to being a model company that tacks on game play opportunities. On the other hand, Asmodee is an actual game company with diverse offering that do not (for the most part) rely on sculpt to sell systems. Their revenue is more than twice of GW so there is something to be said for diversification.

I'm UK based and Underworld is £45 from GW direct and if you're getting into a group chances are you don't even need that just the £20 or so warband pack. Warcry is the same, a bit pricier at £50 for the starting set, but you get a lot for that money; similarly a warband will set you back only £30 and you can start playing in a group with one of those.


As entryway products which are basically the price of one box of models (or a bit more if you go for the boxed games which give you two forces and rules and stuff) I think they are very affordable.

Yes there ARE cheaper toys and hobbies, but based on the structure of GW's prices they are very affordable kits an entryways into the game. Killteam and Warcry for regular armies are also options, again you can get a lot out of one box of models and then expand slowly.


Of course there are cheaper hobbies and cheaper wargames; but most wargames don't have the highstreet appearance that GW has (certainly in the UK); however if you're aiming at a cheaper hobby chances are you're not the target market for GW. GW has a rough price structure (indeed many armies often fall within the same ballpark value for building a functional core of models). Of course time is another factor - you might be below the target market income but willing to save for longer.



I agree that board games and things like Xwing are making bigger inroads; however at the same time I'd say that prebuild prepainted models are a somewhat different market to miniature wargames. The two most certainly overlap, however I'd expect fewer prepaint premade gamers to swap over to wargames.

Also I'd say that Starwars is a powerhouse of its own with its own distinct market and fanbase that extends well outside of miniature markets - even if many of them would be casual gamers.



Thing is I'm really hard pressed to think of another wargame that has the marketing pull GW has. Privateer Press were doing really well until they messed up the launch of 3rd edition; got a bit too wound up in their own competitive playerbase structure (which sort of killed a lot of entryway features); and then the Wizards of the Coast issue with Judges in MTG which led to PP axing their Press Ganger program. All those happening at once alongside some poor plastic material choices all kind of tripped them up (though I'm hopeful that, given time and their new CEO who I think was previously a major GW employee of the US division) will turn things around - esp now that they should be nearing finishing their big HQ move.