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Wayniac wrote: And have a larger than normal reach due to most "influencers" being tournament players, so they look like they have a louder voice than they really do. With so many youtube vids and stuff being tournament focused it looks like they are more of a majority.
And why is that a problem?
Because it puts the wrong narrative that tournament play should be the focus of the game.
Why not? It might mean we'll eventually not get trash rules instead of you defending something like if GW made Cultists 10 points a model.
Wayniac wrote: And have a larger than normal reach due to most "influencers" being tournament players, so they look like they have a louder voice than they really do. With so many youtube vids and stuff being tournament focused it looks like they are more of a majority.
And why is that a problem?
Because it puts the wrong narrative that tournament play should be the focus of the game.
Well, then there is a perfect opportunity for someone to make quality content that is narrative focused.
Wayniac wrote: And have a larger than normal reach due to most "influencers" being tournament players, so they look like they have a louder voice than they really do. With so many youtube vids and stuff being tournament focused it looks like they are more of a majority.
And why is that a problem?
Because it puts the wrong narrative that tournament play should be the focus of the game.
It should be the focus of balance discussions. How are you going to verify and why would you care about my experience in casual games vs SM?
Alrighty, then... and another event cropped up while I was working through things, which was odd.
Key:
Dropped after 1 round - Dropped after 2 rounds - Dropped after 3 rounds - Dropped after 4 rounds - Dropped after 5 rounds - Dropped after 6 rounds
Iberian Open Talavera - Toledo, Spain - 5 rounds (followed by a cut), 84 players
Spoiler:
91 entrants, 6 show no results, 2 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adeptus Custodes - ||||| | (20, 22, 31, 52, 58, 75)
Aeldari - || (10, 11)
Chaos Daemons - |||| (40, 53, 69, 71)
Chaos Daemons (Khorne) - | (76)
Chaos Daemons (Nurgle) - | (56)
Chaos Space Marines - || (61, 62)
Chaos Space Marines (Emperor's Children) - | (74)
Craftworld Eldar - | (79)
Craftworld Eldar (Ulthwe) - | (60)
Dark Eldar - || (21, 44)
Death Guard - | (73)
Genestealer Cult - ||||| (18, 43, 46, 54, 55)
Grey Knights - ||| (41, 68, 77)
Harlequins - | (59)
Imperial Guard - ||||| | (1, 2, 9, 15, 36, 85*)
Imperial Knights - ||||| (27, 30, 57, 64, 66)
Knights Renegades - ||||| ||| (8, 25, 39, 45, 65, 81, 82, 83*)
Leagues of Votann - ||| (12, 29, 51)
Necrons - ||| (32, 35, 49)
Orks - | (14)
Orks (Deathskulls) - | (13, 63)
Space Marines - | (78)
Space Marines (Black Templars) - | (23)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - ||| (6, 33, 70)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - ||||| (4, 5, 7, 19, 34)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - ||| (16, 26, 37)
Space Marines (Raven Guard) - | (72)
Tau Empire - | (42)
Tau Empire (Farsight Enclaves) - | (17)
Tau Empire (Tau Sept) - | (84)
Tyranids - ||| (28, 50, 80)
Tzeentch - || (1, 24)
World Eaters - || (47, 48)
Ynnari - || (38, 67)
Participation % (by Codex) (85 entrants) Adeptus Custodes - 7.06%
Aeldari - 2.35%
Chaos Daemons - 7.06%
Chaos Space Marines - 3.53%
Craftworld Eldar - 2.35%
Dark Eldar - 2.35%
Death Guard - 1.18%
Genestealer Cult - 5.88%
Grey Knights - 3.53%
Harlequins - 1.18%
Imperial Guard - 7.06%
Imperial Knights - 5.88%
Knights Renegades - 9.41%
Leagues of Votann - 3.53%
Necrons - 3.53%
Orks - 3.53%
Space Marines - 16.47%
Tau Empire - 3.53%
Tyranids - 3.53%
Tzeentch - 2.35%
World Eaters - 2.35%
Ynnari - 2.35%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Imperial Guard - ||
Knights Renegades - |
Space Marines - ||||
Tzeentch - |
Yup, Space Marines definitely overperformed here - 16.47% of the field shouldn't capture 50% of the top 8. Imperial Guard also overperformed, getting 25% of the top 8 from 7.06% of the field.
The Great Game GT - Westminster, Maryland, USA - 6 rounds, 51 players
Spoiler:
52 entrants, 1 show no results, 12 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adepta Sororitas - | (6)
Adeptus Custodes - || (9, 24)
Adeptus Mechanicus - | (42*)
Chaos Daemons - || (7, 51*)
Chaos Daemons (Khorne) - | (33)
Chaos Daemons (Nurgle) - | (30)
Chaos Daemons (Slaanesh) - | (12)
Chaos Daemons (Tzeentch) - || (1, 45)
Chaos Space Marines - || (28, 34)
Chaos Space Marines (Emperor's Children) - | (49)
Craftworld Eldar (Ulthwe) - ||| (2, 13, 27)
Death Guard - | (38*)
Grey Knights - | (43*)
Harlequins - || (32, 41*)
Imperial Guard - || (10, 16)
Knights Renegades - ||||| (11, 35, 36*, 46*, 47*)
Leagues of Votann - || (4, 19)
Leagues of Votann (Ymyr Conglomerate) - | (14)
Necrons - | (15)
Orks (Goffs) - || (26, 40)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - ||| (8, 17, 23)
Space Marines (Flesh Tearers) - | (39*)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - |||| (3, 20, 21, 25*)
Tau Empire (Tau Sept) - || (22, 48)
World Eaters - ||||| || (5, 18, 29*, 31, 37, 44, 50*)
Participation % (by Codex) (51 entrants) Adepta Sororitas - 1.96%
Adeptus Custodes - 3.92%
Adeptus Mechanicus - 1.96%
Chaos Daemons - 11.48%
Chaos Space Marines - 5.88%
Craftworld Eldar - 5.88%
Death Guard - 1.96%
Grey Knights - 1.96%
Harlequins - 3.92%
Imperial Guard - 3.92%
Knights Renegades - 8.20%
Leagues of Votann - 5.88%
Necrons - 1.96%
Orks - 3.92%
Space Marines - 13.11%
Tau Empire - 3.92%
World Eaters - 11.48%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adepta Sororitas - |
Chaos Daemons - ||
Craftworld Eldar - |
Leagues of Votann - |
Space Marines - ||
World Eaters - |
Both Space Marines and Chaos Daemons overperforming here - you'd expect one top 8 slot each, based on entrants. I don't think anyone really underperformed, unless you want to make an argument for Knights Renegades. Quite a high drop rate at this event, too.
Planet arKCanite At Comicon - Kansas City, Missouri, USA - 6 rounds, 40 players
Spoiler:
40 entrants, 0 show no results, 3 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adepta Sororitas - | (26)
Adeptus Custodes - |||[/color[ (14, 22, 38*)
Adeptus Mechanicus - | (13)
Chaos Daemons - || (17, 35)
Chaos Space Marines - | (31)
Genestealer Cult - | (27)
Grey Knights - || (37, 32)
Imperial Guard - |||| (2, 18, 21, 36)
Knights Renegades - || (19, 33)
Necrons - ||| (1, 9, 23)
Orks - | (6)
Space Marines (Black Templars) - || (10, 16)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - | (11)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - | (7)
Space Marines (Dark Angels (Deathwing)) - | (4)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - ||| (5, 8, 15)
Space Marines (Salamanders) - | (28)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - | (12)
Tau Empire - |[color=orange]| (25, 39*)
Tau Empire (Farsight Enclaves) - | (24)
Tau Empire (Tau Sept) - | (30)
Tyranids - | (20)
Tyranids (Jormungandr) - | (34)
World Eaters - || (3, 29)
Ynnari - | (40*)
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Imperial Guard - |
Necrons - |
Orks - |
Space Marines - ||||
World Eaters - |
Might just be me, but if your "team" is hosting an event, maybe it isn't a good idea to have five of your team enter, four of them take spots in the top 8, and the lowest placed member of the team take 10th. Certainly made me go "Hmm..." when I noticed it.
And Space Marines overperformed here, scoring twice the places in the top 8 we might expect from their participation.
...why is Kansas City not in Kansas?
Major Mayhem - Valdosta, Georgia, USA - 5 rounds, 58 players
Spoiler:
58 entrants, 0 show no results, 13 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adeptus Custodes - ||||| | (2, 24, 42*, 47, 48*, 54)
Aeldari - | (13)
Chaos Daemons - ||| (7, 10, 35)
Chaos Daemons (Slaanesh) - | (1)
Chaos Daemons (Tzeentch) - | (39)
Chaos Space Marines (Alpha Legion) - | (45)
Chaos Space Marines (Black Legion) - | (16)
Death Guard - |||| (4, 31, 38, 53)
Grey Knights - | (40*)
Imperial Guard - ||| (11, 20, 27)
Imperial Knights - ||| (30, 37, 44)
Knights Renegades - || (15, 36)
Leagues of Votann (Greater Thurian League) - || (9, 18)
Leagues of Votann (Ymyr Conglomerate) - || (14, 50*)
Necrons - || (6, 58*)
Orks (Deathskulls) - || (23*, 33)
Orks (Evil Sunz) - | (26)
Orks (Goffs) - ||| (32, 34, 49*)
Space Marines (Blank Templars) - ||| (3, 12, 28*)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - | (29)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - | (8)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - | (43*)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - || (46, 52*)
Space Marines (Ultramarines) - | (56*)
Space Marines (White Scars) - | (51)
Tau Empire - | (57*)
Tau Empire (Farsight Enclaves) - | (41)
World Eaters - |||| (5, 19, 21, 22)
Ynnari - ||| (17, 25, 55*)
Participation % (by Codex) (58 entrants) Adeptus Custodes - 10.34%
Aeldari - 1.72%
Chaos Daemons - 8.62%
Chaos Space Marines - 3.45%
Death Guard - 6.90%
Grey Knights - 1.72%
Imperial Guard - 5.17%
Imperial Knights - 5.17%
Knights Renegades - 3.45%
Leagues of Votann - 6.90%
Necrons - 3.45%
Orks - 10.34%
Space Marines - 17.24%
Tau Empire - 3.45%
World Eaters - 6.90%
Ynnari - 5.17%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adeptus Custodes - |
Chaos Daemons - ||
Death Guard - |
Necrons - |
Space Marines - ||
World Eaters - |
I'm surprised by how high the drop rate is at this event - while all 58 players had at least one result recorded, 22.41% of the field had dropped out before the end of the event.
In terms of performance, Space Marines slightly overperformed, but only marginally (comfortably over the % for one top 8 spot, but not quite at the tipping point between one and two slots). Chaos Daemons overperformed in a much more aggressive manner, getting 25% of the top 8 from 8.62% of the field.
Orks are the only faction I'd consider to be underperforming, based on their participation %.
The March Madness Grant Tournament - Jacksonville, Arkansas, USA - 5 rounds, 48 players
Spoiler:
50 entrants, 2 show no results, 1 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adepta Sororitas - ||| (7, 9, 15)
Adeptus Custodes - ||| (6, 21, 38)
Adeptus Mechanicus - | (35)
Chaos Daemons - || (1, 24)
Chaos Space Marines (Black Legion) - | (39)
Death Guard - | (41)
Genestealer Cult - ||| (4, 27, 33)
Harlequins - || (26, 30)
Imperial Guard - |||| (16, 31, 40, 45)
Imperial Knights - | (8)
Knights Renegades - || (10, 14)
Leagues of Votann - ||| (12, 22, 36)
Necrons - || (43, 44)
Orks - | (17)
Orks (Deathskulls) - || (28, 29)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - || (25, 48)
Space Marines (Charcharodons) - | (23)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - ||| (5, 13, 18)
Space Marines (Dark Angels (Deathwing)) - | (2)
Space Marines (Salamanders) - ||| (19, 20, 46)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - ||| (32, 34, 47*)
Space Marines (Ultramarines) - ||| (3, 37, 42)
World Eaters - | (11)
Participation % (by Codex) (46 entrants) Adeptus Custodes - 6.52%
Adeptus Mechanicus - 4.35%
Aeldari - 2.17%
Chaos Daemons - 6.52%
Chaos Space Marines - 4.35%
Craftworld Eldar - 2.17%
Dark Eldar - 4.35%
Grey Knights - 2.17%
Imperial Guard - 8.70%
Imperial Knights - 2.17%
Knights Renegades - 4.35%
Leagues of Votann - 2.17%
Necrons - 4.35%
Orks - 8.70%
Space Marines - 19.56%
Tau Empire - 6.52%
Thousand Sons - 2.17%
Tyranids - 2.17%
World Eaters - 2.17%
Ynnari - 4.35%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adeptus Custodes - |
Chaos Daemons - |
Imperial Guard - ||
Necrons - |
Space Marines - ||
Tyranids - |
At 19.56% of the field, I would say that Space Marines were not overperforming at this event, as they were past the tipping point between one top 8 spot and two top 8 spots. Imperial Guard, on the other hand, clearly over-performed, with 25% of the top 8 from 8.7% of the field.
Free State GT 2023 - Holton, Kansas, USA - 5 rounds, 43 players
Spoiler:
46 entrants, 3 show no results, 4 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adeptus Custodes - || (29, 39*)
Adeptus Mechanicus - | (17)
Aeldari - | (37)
Chaos - | (42)
Chaos Space Marines (Black Legion) - | (2)
Chaos Space Marines (Night Lords) - | (38)
Dark Eldar - | (41*)
Death Guard - | (27)
Genestealer Cult - || (3, 13)
Grey Knights - || (6, 22)
Imperial Guard - ||| (7, 32, 34)
Imperial Knights - || (8, 36)
Knights Renegades - ||| (5, 16, 20)
Necrons - || (4, 23)
Orks - | (24)
Space Marines (Black Templars) - | (26)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - | (21)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - ||| (1, 15, 18)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - ||||| || (9, 12, 14, 28, 35, 40*, 43)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - | (11)
Tau Empire - | (10)
Tau Empire (Tau Sept) - | (33*)
Tyranids - | (31)
Tyranids (Gorgon) - | (30)
World Eaters - || (19, 25)
Nice wide spread of factions across the top 8. Given they had a hair over 30% of the field, we can say that Space Marines definitely underperformed here.
Dropzone Games Central Island Open - Nanaimo, British Columbia, CAN - 5 rounds, 39 players
Spoiler:
39 entrants, 0 show no results, 1 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adepta Sororitas - || (2, 16)
Adeptus Custodes - ||| (4, 7, 11)
Adeptus Mechanicus - | (17)
Chaos Daemons - ||| (18, 28, 35)
Chaos Daemons (Tzeentch) - || (32, 33)
Chaos Space Marines - || (10, 14)
Chaos Space Marines (Emperor's Children) - | (25)
Dark Eldar - || (29, 31)
Genestealer Cult - ||| (21, 22, 38*)
Grey Knights - | (9)
Imperial Guard - ||| (13, 23, 30)
Imperial Knights - || (19, 26)
Knights Renegades - | (24)
Necrons - | (12)
Orks (Snakebites) - | (39)
Space Marines (Blood Angels) - | (5)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - | (1)
Space Marines (Imperial Fists) - | (15)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - | (3)
Space Marines (Raven Guard) - | (8)
Space Marines (Ultramarines) - | (37)
Tau Empire - || (6, 36)
Tau Empire (Farsight Enclaves) - | (27)
Tyranids (Behemoth) - || (20, 34)
Participation % (by Codex) (39 entrants) Adepta Sororitas - 5.13%
Adeptus Custodes - 7.69%
Adeptus Mechanicus - 2.56%
Chaos Daemons - 12.82%
Chaos Space Marines - 7.69%
Dark Eldar - 5.13%
Genestealer Cult - 7.69%
Grey Knights - 2.56%
Imperial Guard - 7.69%
Imperial Knights - 5.13%
Knights Renegades - 2.56%
Necrons - 2.56%
Orks - 2.56%
Space Marines - 15.38%
Tau Empire - 7.69%
Tyranids - 5.13%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adepta Sororitas - |
Adeptus Custodes - ||
Space Marines - ||||
Tau Empire - |
Space Marines definitely overperformed by a distance here, as did Adeptus Custodes. Chaos Daemons were the only faction I'd say definitely underperformed.
OP's 1st GT Smash - Santa Rosa, California, USA - 5 rounds, 38 players
Spoiler:
38 entrants, 0 show no results, 4 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adeptus Custodes - ||| (4, 31, 33)
Chaos Daemons - | (6)
Chaos Space Marines (Emperor's Children) - || (30, 38)
Craftworld Eldar - || (21, 27)
Dark Eldar - || (34, 36)
Death Guard - || (2, 35)
Genestealer Cult - | (8)
Imperial Guard - || (13, 16)
Imperial Knights - || (7, 15)
Knights Renegades - | (25)
Necrons - | (5)
Necrons (Nihilakh) - | (10)
Orks - | (9)
Orks (Goffs) - ||| (19, 23, 28)
Space Marines - | (22)
Space Marines (Black Templars) - | (14)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - || (11, 17)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - | (1)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - | (3)
Space Marines (Ultramarines) - | (29)
Tau Empire - | (20)
Thousand Sons - || (24, 37*)
Tyranids (Behemoth) - | (26)
World Eaters - ||| (12, 18, 32)
Participation % (by Codex) (38 entrants) Adeptus Custodes - 7.89%
Chaos Daemons - 2.63%
Chaos Space Marines - 5.26%
Craftworld Eldar - 5.26%
Dark Eldar - 5.26%
Death Guard - 5.26%
Genestealer Cult - 2.63%
Imperial Guard - 5.26%
Imperial Knights - 5.26%
Knights Renegades - 2.63%
Necrons - 5.26%
Orks - 10.53%
Space Marines - 18.42%
Tau Empire - 2.63%
Thousand Sons - 5.26%
Tyranids - 2.63%
World Eaters - 7.89%
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adeptus Custodes - |
Chaos Daemons - |
Death Guard - |
Genestealer Cult - |
Imperial Knights - |
Necrons - |
Space Marines - ||
I don't think anyone here is overperforming - Space Marines are within 0.35% of the tipping point between one and two top 8 spots, so I'm not going to quibble. I'd argue that Orks underperformed, given they had over 10% of the field and no top 8 spots.
War of the Roses 2023 - Stockport, ENG - 5 rounds, 34 players
Spoiler:
34 entrants, 0 show no results, 4 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adepta Sororitas - ||| (11, 13, 19)
Adeptus Custodes - || (3, 8)
Chaos Daemons - | (10)
Chaos Daemons (Tzeentch) - | (4)
Death Guard - | (25)
Genestealer Cult - | (31*)
Grey Knights - ||| (18, 22, 23)
Harlequins - | (28)
Imperial Guard - |||| (6, 9, 15, 29)
Imperial Knights - | (12)
Leagues of Votann - | (26)
Orks - | (14)
Orks (Goffs) - | (17)
Space Marines (Black Templars) - | (27)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - || (1, 31*)
Space Marines (Dark Angels (Deathwing) - | (16)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - | (20)
Tau Empire - | (24)
Tau Empire (Farsight Enclaves) - | (30)
World Eaters - ||||| (2, 5, 7, 21, 31*)
Ynnari - | (31*)
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Adeptus Custodes - ||
Chaos Daemons - |
Imperial Guard - |
Space Marines - |
World Eaters - |||
Space Marines look to have performed about as expected, given their participation, as have Imperial Guard. Adeptus Custodes and World Eaters, on the other hand, have definitely overperformed. It is arguable that the Adepta Sororitas and Grey Knights underperformed, given their participation %.
Top 8 slots (12.5% each) Chaos Daemons - |
Chaos Space Marines - |
Imperial Guard - |
Space Marines - |||
World Eaters - ||
Space Marines overperformed here, netting around double the number of top 8 spots you'd expect from their participation (17.65% putting them almost at the tipping point between one and two top 8 slots). World Eaters overperformed to a larger degree, achieving over four times what you'd expect from their 5.88% participation.
As event is only 32 players, will be looking at the top 4 only. Carnage - Season 1, Round 1 - Leeds, ENG - 5 rounds, 32 players
Spoiler:
32 entrants, 0 show no results, 4 dropped during the event
Listed factions (including sub-factions) * indicates a drop during the event Adeptus Custodes - ||||| (16, 20, 21, 24*, 28*)
Aeldari - | (9)
Chaos Daemons - ||| (1, 7, 31*)
Chaos Space Marines - | (6)
Chaos Space Marines (Alpha Legion) - | (15)
Dark Eldar - | (25)
Death Guard - | (13)
Grey Knights - | (22)
Imperial Guard - || (11, 17)
Knights Renegades - | (12)
Leagues of Votann - | (29)
Space Marines - | (30)
Space Marines (Dark Angels) - | (3)
Space Marines (Iron Hands) - | (4)
Space Marines (Raven Guard) - | (26)
Space Marines (Salamanders) - | (14)
Space Marines (Space Wolves) - || (8, 10)
Space Marines (Ultramarines) - | (23)
Tau Empire - ||| (2, 5, 32*)
Tyranids - | (19)
Tyranids (Behemoth) - | (18)
Ynnari - | (27)
Participation % (by Codex) (32 entrants) Adeptus Custodes - 15.625%
Aeldari - 3.125%
Chaos Daemons - 9.375%
Chaos Space Marines - 6.25%
Dark Eldar - 3.125%
Death Guard - 3.125%
Grey Knights - 3.125%
Imperial Guard - 6.25%
Knights Renegades - 3.125%
Leagues of Votann - 3.125%
Space Marines - 25%
Tau Empire - 9.375%
Tyranids - 6.25%
Ynnari - 3.125%
Top 4 slots (25% each) Chaos Daemons x1
Space Marines x2
Tau Empire x1
Compared to their participation, Space Marines overperformed - you'd expect 1 top 4 spot, not two. On the other hand, Adeptus Custodes arguably underperformed here - second largest faction, and no top 4 spots.
Codex: Space Marines Sub-Factions (12 events) Top n spot
My [url=https://pileofpotential.com/dysartes]Pile of Potential[/url - updates ongoing...
Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.
Kanluwen wrote: This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.
Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...
Free state GT: Marines under-performed in the top 8, they also had 9th, 11th, 12th and 15th as well IE they missed top 8 spots by one game. #9 lost 2 games, both with a score of 78. He lost by 16pts in the 1st game vs the #4 placing list and by 8pts in his last game to the guy who placed 2nd. #11 lost 2 games with 76 and 73 #12 with 76 and 66 and #15th with 69 and 69. Again, they missed out on taking 4 more top 8 spots by mere inches.
OPs GT: Marines over performed but only by a little bit, but even still #11 was a DA player who lost 2 games, 1st game vs the #2 player, and the 2nd game Vs the guy who finished 3rd. But the game vs #3 he lost by 1pt! and had he won he would have catapulted himself to 3rd place.
So basically every single GT listed Marines either met or over performed vs their participation rate which is still a terrible metric since it yet again doesn't take into account the borderline horde of bad players or newbies who show up as Marines. But lets also run this to ground with Top 4 placings. Marines had 16 top 4 placings out of a possible 40 including 4 1st place finishes out of 10. Realistically you can see that the problem children are the DA and IH but you still had Raven guard, Ultramarines, Space wolves and salamanders showing up.
Put another way, Marine factions took 40% of top 4 placings while also winning 40% of the tournaments outright. If you don't think that is over performing and TOP TIER than there is nothing anyone can ever do to convince you.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/03/23 10:44:56
Semper, you really need to stop doing this - you're continuing to make yourself look foolish, and/or driven by your initial narrative and/or biased. You're not looking at the data and listening to what it is telling you - you're reaching to try to force it to fit in the box you set up at the start of the thread.
It's the same problem I've run into with managers at work - they come to ask for data to show "narrative X", and I have to tell them I'm not going to do that. If we can look at a question of "what does the data about Y tell us?", that's a much healthier position to look at it from.
And before you try to say I'm trying to defend Space Marines, I'm not - I'm trying to provide a neutral look at the dataset, with a focus on the question "How are Space Marines (and their sub-factions) performing compared to their event participation this week?". I'm going in with no pre-conceptions, no axe to grind - I'm just listening to the data.
Now, if you've got criticisms of my methods, I'm happy to listen to them, and answer questions on them. I will say that I'm not going to exclude anyone's participation in an event just because they happen to get a poor record with Space Marines that day. Trying to exclude people because you think they're "bad players" or "newbies" is too subjective for that, and if we're going to listen to the data, we should be as objective as possible.
I am curious why you only appear to have looked at ten out of the twelve listed events when trying to talk about top 4 - did the other two not fit with the story you are trying to tell?
And I'll agree that Space Marines had a stronger week this week than they did last week - I think they were four percentile points higher in terms of games won, off the top of my head (though I'd also argue that 54-55% isn't excessive for one week, but certainly something to monitor over a longer period). In terms of top 8 placement (across the 11 events where that was examined), they performed 50% better than their participation would expect - but if that's the point you cry wolf, other factions met that benchmark too. Chaos Daemons and World Eaters being the prime examples, with Custodes, Guard and Sisters not far off that mark either.
My [url=https://pileofpotential.com/dysartes]Pile of Potential[/url - updates ongoing...
Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.
Kanluwen wrote: This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.
Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...
Dysartes wrote: Semper, you really need to stop doing this - you're continuing to make yourself look foolish, and/or driven by your initial narrative and/or biased. You're not looking at the data and listening to what it is telling you - you're reaching to try to force it to fit in the box you set up at the start of the thread.
It's the same problem I've run into with managers at work - they come to ask for data to show "narrative X", and I have to tell them I'm not going to do that. If we can look at a question of "what does the data about Y tell us?", that's a much healthier position to look at it from.
And before you try to say I'm trying to defend Space Marines, I'm not - I'm trying to provide a neutral look at the dataset, with a focus on the question "How are Space Marines (and their sub-factions) performing compared to their event participation this week?". I'm going in with no pre-conceptions, no axe to grind - I'm just listening to the data.
Now, if you've got criticisms of my methods, I'm happy to listen to them, and answer questions on them. I will say that I'm not going to exclude anyone's participation in an event just because they happen to get a poor record with Space Marines that day. Trying to exclude people because you think they're "bad players" or "newbies" is too subjective for that, and if we're going to listen to the data, we should be as objective as possible.
I am curious why you only appear to have looked at ten out of the twelve listed events when trying to talk about top 4 - did the other two not fit with the story you are trying to tell?
And I'll agree that Space Marines had a stronger week this week than they did last week - I think they were four percentile points higher in terms of games won, off the top of my head (though I'd also argue that 54-55% isn't excessive for one week, but certainly something to monitor over a longer period). In terms of top 8 placement (across the 11 events where that was examined), they performed 50% better than their participation would expect - but if that's the point you cry wolf, other factions met that benchmark too. Chaos Daemons and World Eaters being the prime examples, with Custodes, Guard and Sisters not far off that mark either.
or you could actually read my posts without your preconceived notions The 10 instead of 12 was 1 i miscounted 1 event (happily admit I made a mistake) and 2 I hadn't included the event they said started on the 16th instead of the 17th because I had my blinders on searching for events on the 17th. So it changes the numbers from 16 in 40 to 16 in 48. or 33% which is still far too much.
As far as analysis, I dug into the events a bit and found that a lot of the time the Marines missed top 8 placings by a few points which hints that they are on the cusp of even more placings. The DA player who lost by 1pt and went from 3rd place to 11th is a great example of this. So not only are they over performing as is, but they have a host of players who didn't place who were figuratively a dice roll away from winning. And the analysis of "bad players or noobs" is important since it shows that bad players are dragging Marines W/L ratio down which is also why i think W/L ratio is a garbage metric on its own because nobody seems to account for this. In my opinion the best metric for how powerful a faction is at the highest levels is how many top placings they have, and in that category Marines are doing VERY well for themselves by your own data, and even better when you take into account the outlier lists who barely missed placing.
And finally, the other factions doing absurdly good? Realistically from last week the only faction which appeared to be oppressive besides Marines was Demons, World Eaters and IG. I don't know how you can say Custodes and SoB were "not far off that mark" when they each had 1 top 4 placing in 12 events. and 11 total placings in the top 8 over those same events (excluding the top 4 event for smaller attendance). And of those top 8 placings, most were Custodes. But even given that, the initial premise was
Based on the new updates I honestly predict SM to start running away with tournaments
not that there wouldn't be other top contenders. I'll happily state that Demons, IG and maybe even Custards need a slight nerf, but that doesn't change my premise nor does it prove it incorrect that Marines are in fact running away with the tournament scene. Not as ridiculous as DE and Ad-mech were to start this edition, but definitely they are the top dog right now.
As far as analysis, I dug into the events a bit and found that a lot of the time the Marines missed top 8 placings by a few points which hints that they are on the cusp of even more placings. The DA player who lost by 1pt and went from 3rd place to 11th is a great example of this. So not only are they over performing as is, but they have a host of players who didn't place who were figuratively a dice roll away from winning. And the analysis of "bad players or noobs" is important since it shows that bad players are dragging Marines W/L ratio down which is also why i think W/L ratio is a garbage metric on its own because nobody seems to account for this. In my opinion the best metric for how powerful a faction is at the highest levels is how many top placings they have, and in that category Marines are doing VERY well for themselves by your own data, and even better when you take into account the outlier lists who barely missed placing.
The problem is, the impression you're giving off is that you're only doing this sort of analysis for SM. It also feels like you're only doing the "let's not consider the worst players" approach only for SM. Any faction's winrate will improve if you remove the worst performers, but doing so doesn't tell you anything about the performance of the faction as a whole. Just taking placings into account doesn't account for the number of players of a given faction. If the game is perfectly balanced, but half the players play one faction, you would expect to see the top placings dominated by that faction. There's no one data point that will provide all the information you need to show a faction is broken, but tournament winrate and placings are a decent barometer of how good the best lists in a given faction are. So far the results seem to be pretty balanced, with maybe a slight tendency towards certain SM builds doing well. It's nowhere near the domination we saw with Nids and Harlequins.
The problem is, the impression you're giving off is that you're only doing this sort of analysis for SM. It also feels like you're only doing the "let's not consider the worst players" approach only for SM. Any faction's winrate will improve if you remove the worst performers, but doing so doesn't tell you anything about the performance of the faction as a whole. Just taking placings into account doesn't account for the number of players of a given faction. If the game is perfectly balanced, but half the players play one faction, you would expect to see the top placings dominated by that faction. There's no one data point that will provide all the information you need to show a faction is broken, but tournament winrate and placings are a decent barometer of how good the best lists in a given faction are. So far the results seem to be pretty balanced, with maybe a slight tendency towards certain SM builds doing well. It's nowhere near the domination we saw with Nids and Harlequins.
Well, since the entire point of this thread was me speculating that Marines would be broken with the new balance update its kind of Marine-centric by its nature. And I've broken down other factions before, in another thread about Orkz I compared Marines vs Ork player experience in a tournament, basically, you had 3/4ths of the Marine players having only played 2 or fewer GTs in the last 2 years while the majority of Ork GT players were experienced, having played significantly more GTs. Its anecdotally true for most people, borderline common sense, that the least experienced players are usually Marine players since GW does their best to bring in new players by utilizing Marines factions. When was the last time a "starter box" featured anything besides Marine Vs. Other faction? This edition was Marines vs. Necrons, 8th edition was Marines vs. Deathguard, I can't remember if Dark Vengeance was 6th or 7th edition but it was Marines vs. Spiky Marines. Point being that they generally have a plethora of newer players. But because i'm bored atm i'll run down the last 3 GTs and compare them against Imperial Guard and my Orkz.
Newbies = 2 or fewer GTs as that faction in 2 years
Newer = 3 GTs as that faction in 2 years
Experienced = 4+ GTs as that faction in 2 years
"The Great Game GT":
Spoiler:
MARINES:
Brandon Truslow: 2 GT's in 2 years as Marines.
Jason Houser: 1 GT in 2 years as Marines.
JC Watts: 5 GTs in 2 years,
John Harrison: 2 GTS in 2 years as Marines.
Joseph Scanlon: 3 GTs in 2 years.
Justin Cox: 5 GTs in 2 years.
Ken Knox: 3 GTs in 2 years.
Mark Hertel: Experienced
Steven Bourque: 4 GTs as Marines in 2 years
3 Newbies to GTs Entirely (2 or less)
2 Newer Player (3 GTs in 2 years)
4 Experienced
IMPERIAL GUARD:
Tristan Godbold: 3 GTs as IG in last 2 years.
Jesse Melvin: 7 GTs as IG in last 2 Years
2 players, 1 newer and 1 experienced.
ORKZ:
Greg Lomb: 5 GTS in 2 years as Orkz.
Shaun Powers: 3 GTS in 2 years as Orkz
2 Players, 1 newer and 1 experienced.
Team arKCanite Presents: Planet arKCanite At Comicon 2023:
Spoiler:
Marines:
Aaron Rider: 1st GT in 2 years
Anthony Joyce-Rivera: 1st GT in 2 years
Brendan McManus: 2 GTs in 2 years
Chris Taggart: 5 GTs in 2 years.
Daniel Newland: 3 GTs in 2 years.
Graham Hennig: 2 GTs in 2 years.
Jacob Meyer: 5 GTs in 2 years (IH and GK)
Jeremy Capko: Experienced SM Player.
Joshua Palmer: 1 GT in 2 years
Joshua Shirley: Experienced BT player.
Kedryn Whittington: 2 GTs in 2 years.
Stephen McBee: 2 GTs in 2 years.
7 Newbies
1 Newer
4 Experienced Players
IMPERIAL GUARD:
Simeon Boda: Experienced IG Player.
Braiden Warren: 2 GTs in 2 years.
Dillon Richmond: 1 GT in 2 years as Guard.
James Willet: 4 GTs in 2 Years.
2 newbies
2 Experienced Players
ORKZ:
Thomas Eddy: 6 GTs as Orkz
Only 1 player, but experienced.
Battle Ready Wargaming's Major Mayhem 40k Event: ***NOTE*** (This one hasn't been counted on ITC yet, so i added 1 game for everyone)
Spoiler:
MARINES:
Adam Camilleri: Experienced
Chris Frost: 1 GT as Marines
Craig Sniffen: experienced
Daniel Hesters: 1st GT as Marines in 2 years.
Dustin Brown: 1st GT as Marines in 2 years.
Jaxsen Mcdonald-Hoffman: 2nd GT as Marines in 2 years.
Jessie Hicks: 3rd GT as Marines
Jon Sweet: Experienced
Nathan McFarland: 1st GT as Marines in 2 Years
Owen McFarland: Experienced
Robert Hawkins: 2nd GT as Marines in 2 years
Seth Piper: Experienced
6 Newbies
1 Newer
5 Experienced
IMPERIAL GUARD:
Patrick Weber: 1st GT as Guard in 2 years
Gabriel Rocheleau: 4th GT as Guard in 2 years
Evan O'Brian: 2nd GT as Guard in 2 years.
2 newbies
1 Experienced.
ORKZ:
Jason Langer: Experienced
Nicholas Petrosky: Experienced
Mark Wilkens: 1 GT as Orkz in 2 Years.
Seth (Mad Dok) Oster: Experienced
Ryan Brown: 1st GT as Orkz in 2 years.
Adepticon: (Top 16) 238 players
1: IG 2: Dwarves
3: GSC 4: IG 5: Black Templars
6: Nurgle Demons
7: Necrons
8: Iron Hands
9: Knights Renegade
10: Minotaurs
11: Black Templars
12: IG 13: Space Wolves
14: Tau
15: Tau
16: Nidz.
5 of 16 lists were Space Marines, IG definitely over performed with 3 players in the top 16. Side Note to that is of the next top 16 players who didn't make it to the finals, 7 were Space Marines, 2 were IG. So in the top 32 players 12 were Marines and IG pulled in 5. I think its safe to say that both factions need to be tuned down a bit.
Münsterland GT 2: 28 players (top 4)
1: Tau
2: iron Hands
3: orkz
4: Dark Angels.
Courage And Honour VIII: 33 Players
1: IG 2: Custards
3: Tau
4: Iron Hands.
FactoruM GT Mar 2023: 40 Players
1: Dark Angels
2: Knights Renegade
3: Knights Renegade
4: Ad Mech
III GT Coliseum Murciano: 72 Players (Top 8) (why are european games so different?)
1: DE 2: Iron Hands
3: Custards
4: Orkz
5: Demons
6: Demons
7: DE 8: Blood Angels
Absolute Supremacy 40k Spring GT: 30 players
1: Iron Hands
2: Sisters
3: GSC 4: World Eaters
The Deck Box Masters 40K: 28 Players
1: Dark Angels
2: IG 3: World Eaters
4: Demons
All is Dust GT40k: 60 players
1: World Eaters
2: IG 3: Harlies
4: Blood Angels
5: Dark Angels
6: World Eaters
7: GSC 8: World Eaters
The Manchester 40k Super-Major: 258 Players
1: Dark Angels
2: Space Wolves
3: Space Marines
4: Iron Hands
5: Dark Angels
6: Eldar
7: Tau
8: Dwarves
9: Iron hands
10: Knights Renegade
11: Necrons
12: IG 13: Demons
14: Necrons
15: IG 16: Demons.
Holy crap, Marines swept the top 5 spots.
Grand Onslaught 5: 44 Players
1: Dwarves
2: Eldar
3: demons
4: Dark Angels
Iron Cage: Bedford Beatdown: 52 Players
1: IG 2: Dwarves
3: GSC 4: Ad Mech
EviscerationPlague wrote: 1. Kansas City was named after the native Americans there or something like that
Also, there's ALSO a Kansas City in Kansas.
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Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.
Kanluwen wrote: This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.
Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...
It seems GW has agreed with me to an extent and nerfed Space Marines in general and Dark Angels specifically (rather harshly in my opinion). GSC got hit a bit as did Custards, somehow World Eaters and demons didn't really catch much but IG got hit rather hard with very specific nerfs.
Overall, I think its fair to say that World Eaters and Demons will now be top dog, but Marines aren't in a horrific spot, with several chapters walking away without any specific nerfs to them at all.
SemperMortis wrote: It seems GW has agreed with me to an extent and nerfed Space Marines in general and Dark Angels specifically (rather harshly in my opinion).
Nah, permanent Transhuman shouldn't be a thing. Good riddance.
And without it they are not worth running, they could at least left them with the mini transhuman, the +3 other armies get. But I guess having fun playing terminators is not fun. So we will see waves of RW instead, and maybe 1 brick of termis.
In general, the changes are unimportant so close to an edition change.
I did have a hearty laugh though, when a studio designers went on a "Do you guys know that vs armies like GK/1ksons opponents can double dip on kill secondaries?" as if it took them an entire edition to notice.
If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain.
Karol wrote: And without it they are not worth running, they could at least left them with the mini transhuman, the +3 other armies get. But I guess having fun playing terminators is not fun. So we will see waves of RW instead, and maybe 1 brick of termis.
There's several issues with Terminators, and tacking on such a rule for a subfaction of a subfaction was lazy and not well thought out, fluff or crunch wise.
SemperMortis wrote: It seems GW has agreed with me to an extent and nerfed Space Marines in general and Dark Angels specifically (rather harshly in my opinion). GSC got hit a bit as did Custards, somehow World Eaters and demons didn't really catch much but IG got hit rather hard with very specific nerfs.
Overall, I think its fair to say that World Eaters and Demons will now be top dog, but Marines aren't in a horrific spot, with several chapters walking away without any specific nerfs to them at all.
IG didn't really get hit hard. Their relic is still an auto include, and the part that is the problem part was not removed from it. And while it is nice that units of Kasarkin won't be deleting 2-3 units per turn, but now rather 1-2, when considering the unit price it is still to oppresive. IG are single handly responsible for stuff like big dreadnoughts, big knights etc being not worth buying or running in an army.
Custodes change nerfs their warden brick, which means custodes will be back to playing msu. Again, and a short time span where wardens were an actualy fun unit worth taking is now gone.
And most marine chapters didn't require nerfs, because they were already doing not that good or bad. No nerfs needed after AoC removal to BAs, and DW or IF don't need reigning in. What should have been looked in to was how the IH function over all, just taking away a character dread is probably not enough to bring them down under 50% win rates.
If you have to kill, then kill in the best manner. If you slaughter, then slaughter in the best manner. Let one of you sharpen his knife so his animal feels no pain.
Karol wrote: So we will see waves of RW instead, and maybe 1 brick of termis.
I was already thinking Ravenwing were being underutilized/under fielded. DW was a 0 second no-brainer, which is probably why nobody spent the 5 seconds to think about Ravenwing.
Wayniac wrote: And have a larger than normal reach due to most "influencers" being tournament players, so they look like they have a louder voice than they really do. With so many youtube vids and stuff being tournament focused it looks like they are more of a majority.
And why is that a problem?
Because it puts the wrong narrative that tournament play should be the focus of the game.
Why is this the "wrong" narrative? What does wrong narrative even mean here?
On another poster's point about tournament players being a small volume of sales ...can you elaborate? What is a "tournament player"? Where are you pulling your sales data?
And for OP...I think you draw some interesting conclusions from your results reporting. Do you have access to (sub)faction attendance data, and also dates as correlated to these events? (or, i suppose, which balance update they are within)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2023/04/21 05:17:15
bored1 wrote: And for OP...I think you draw some interesting conclusions from your results reporting. Do you have access to (sub)faction attendance data, and also dates as correlated to these events? (or, i suppose, which balance update they are within)
Semper hasn't been gathering/publishing such data - aside from the latest batch of events, though, you can find some of that data in my posts in this thread.
My [url=https://pileofpotential.com/dysartes]Pile of Potential[/url - updates ongoing...
Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.
Kanluwen wrote: This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.
Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...
bored1 wrote: And for OP...I think you draw some interesting conclusions from your results reporting. Do you have access to (sub)faction attendance data, and also dates as correlated to these events? (or, i suppose, which balance update they are within)
Semper hasn't been gathering/publishing such data - aside from the latest batch of events, though, you can find some of that data in my posts in this thread.
There's not much point to it now either, seeing as we're getting a new edition in a few months likely.
Eh, if someone is interested in how things are looking towards the end of the edition, then it's worth someone doing - I just need to revise my methodology to make it more efficient before I do any more.
My [url=https://pileofpotential.com/dysartes]Pile of Potential[/url - updates ongoing...
Gamgee on Tau Players wrote:we all kill cats and sell our own families to the devil and eat live puppies.
Kanluwen wrote: This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.
Confirmation of why no-one should listen to Kanluwen when it comes to the IG - he doesn't want the IG, he want's Kan's New Model Army...
Personally I'd be interested to see how the final update to 9th pans out, and it would give a nice initial point of comparison to see how big a shakeup the new edition is when those results come through down the line.
In addition, having the data for the end of the edition allows us to tie 9th edition up in a neat bow and it becomes possible to compare one edition with another across its whole life cycle.
What I really want to see someone do is compare how 9th edition started with how quickly it began to bloat and spiral out of control. Just as proof whenever someone comes up about GW trying better it can be pointed to the show how quickly they ruin a good thing