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MWHistorian wrote: Store owner: Hey, can I help you?
Customer: Just looking around. I kinda want to do something, but don't know what.
Store owner: Well, we got Warhammer, 40k, Warmachine, Infinity, FOW and Maliefaux.
Customer: Cool. What do I need to play 40k?
Store owner: Well, the rule book is $90, the codex is $60 and a 1,000 army will cost you about $400.
Customer: Whoa...um...that's a little steep.
Store ownder: Well, you can play X-Wing, Infinity has free rules and you'll only need about $150 for a full sized 300pt force.
Customer: That sounds good. Tell me more about that.
Future GW customer lost. It's pretty simple. Repeat that a bunch of times and soon 40k is no longer the dominant game and will then have little reason to play it.
Actually thats not how you get into Warhammer 40k. It goes more like this:
Customer: Just looking around. I kinda want to do something, but don't know what.
Store owner: Well, we got Warhammer, 40k, Warmachine, Infinity, FOW and Maliefaux.
Customer: Cool. What do I need to play 40k?
Store owner: Well, the dark vengeance kit is made for starters, giving you the full rulebook and an abridged booklet needed to play simple missions the game comes with, and 2 small armies perfect for 2 people to play against each other to get to know the game. one of them are good guys, the other are bad guys, two sides of the coin basically. you get all this for $110.
Customer: okay, I'm not too sold on the two army concept yet. I mean I can only ever play half at a time, right?
Store owner: not necessarily. You can play them as allies and thus double the amount of points you have. In fact, the contents of the DV box put together make for a force that is larger than 1000 points. You just need to keep the two forces 12" away from each other while deploying, and roll a D6 each time a squad gets within that distance of another during the game and on a 1, that squad cant do anything for that turn.
Customer: Sounds ...good. What else you got?
Store ownder: Well, you can play X-Wing, Infinity has free rules and you'll need about $150 for a full sized 300pt force.
Customer: Okay, I think I'll try my hand at 40k since I can experiment with two different factions and also have everything I need in the box to introduce the game to my friend as well.
Future GW customer won.
Wait, CSM can ally with Loyalists?
feth this company.
Games Workshop Delenda Est.
Users on ignore- 53.
If you break apart my or anyone else's posts line by line I will not read them.
MWHistorian wrote: Store owner: Hey, can I help you?
Customer: Just looking around. I kinda want to do something, but don't know what.
Store owner: Well, we got Warhammer, 40k, Warmachine, Infinity, FOW and Maliefaux.
Customer: Cool. What do I need to play 40k?
Store owner: Well, the rule book is $90, the codex is $60 and a 1,000 army will cost you about $400.
Customer: Whoa...um...that's a little steep.
Store ownder: Well, you can play X-Wing, Infinity has free rules and you'll only need about $150 for a full sized 300pt force.
Customer: That sounds good. Tell me more about that.
Future GW customer lost. It's pretty simple. Repeat that a bunch of times and soon 40k is no longer the dominant game and will then have little reason to play it.
Actually thats not how you get into Warhammer 40k. It goes more like this:
Customer: Just looking around. I kinda want to do something, but don't know what.
Store owner: Well, we got Warhammer, 40k, Warmachine, Infinity, FOW and Maliefaux.
Customer: Cool. What do I need to play 40k?
Store owner: Well, the dark vengeance kit is made for starters, giving you the full rulebook and an abridged booklet needed to play simple missions the game comes with, and 2 small armies perfect for 2 people to play against each other to get to know the game. one of them are good guys, the other are bad guys, two sides of the coin basically. you get all this for $110.
Customer: okay, I'm not too sold on the two army concept yet. I mean I can only ever play half at a time, right?
Store owner: not necessarily. You can play them as allies and thus double the amount of points you have. In fact, the contents of the DV box put together make for a force that is larger than 1000 points. You just need to keep the two forces 12" away from each other while deploying, and roll a D6 each time a squad gets within that distance of another during the game and on a 1, that squad cant do anything for that turn.
Customer: Sounds ...good. What else you got?
Store ownder: Well, you can play X-Wing, Infinity has free rules and you'll need about $150 for a full sized 300pt force.
Customer: Okay, I think I'll try my hand at 40k since I can experiment with two different factions and also have everything I need in the box to introduce the game to my friend as well.
Future GW customer won.
Wait, CSM can ally with Loyalists?
feth this company.
And loyalist can summon deamons.
(Though the most ironic one is that CSM can't ally with Imperial Guard. Go figure.)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/24 19:47:17
Also, check out my history blog: Minimum Wage Historian, a fun place to check out history that often falls between the couch cushions.
Blacksails wrote: Second of all, if the criticism of the game keeps players away, maybe its for the better. If there's enough criticism of a product, maybe its for a reason?
But that argument attempts to blames the players, rather than the company making the game. Which is of course absurd.
Mate, it is sometimes plain bashing, but not always. And occasionally the more biased people are actually extremely unreasonable, and making things seem way worse than they actually are. I´m sure you acknowledge both these things.
Ah, sheeple, a surefire way to convince someone your point is worth listening to.
Maybe you could dial down comments like that? You don't need to call something bashing, or sheeple to make a point.
I don´t link the use of the word "sheeple" to making your comment more worth listening to, not sure where you get that. In this instance I use it to describe a person who makes decisions and even has a change of heart based on the popularity of a subject. For example, quitting a game because it´s nowhere near dying but might have slightly reduced popularity, even if he loves said game. Or listening and being a fan of that artist because everyone does so, or hating on something because others do. Doing anything just because others do it. The definition of sheeple in a nutshell.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/24 20:07:29
Well playing since 2nd edition I remember traveling an hour to the closest shop that sold warhammer. However I remember at the end of third and beginning of fourth game shops were everywhere and games workshop had stores all over as well. Now the closest gw store is one in NYC and isn't worth going to because there really is no discount or incentive and nearly every game store has a small selection of games workshop product. And I have 3 local games shops in my town or the towns right next to me.
The game isn't dying however it's not as big as it was in it's hay day. Yes it costs more because to be fair playing a game in 2nd require 1/10 the models. I recently reused my orks which was my first army and I needed to buy almost 5x as many models to play a tourement sized 1850 list. The game is fun and once wave serpents are nerfed the game will be very welled balanced.
My only complaint about 7th is the rules are a little beardy however it's no worse then 2nd and 3rd was the edition they tried to streamline the game. Overall 7th is an amazing edition that let's you customize your army and play what you like with a ton of models to choose from. However I think some people are just bored and want a tight tourney ruleset instead of what 7th gives.
Mate, it is sometimes plain bashing, but not always. And occasionally the more biased people are actually extremely unreasonable, and making things seem way worse than they actually are. I´m sure you acknowledge both these things.
I don't acknowledge either of those things. What you may think is bashing, I think is criticism, most of which is likely valid.
Just because its negative about GW does not mean its bashing, or being unreasonable. Your opinion of GW does not inherently make an argument more or less reasonable, nor more or less 'bashing', or hateful, or any other buzzword. Don't call posts bashing unless you wish posts like yours to be dismissed as white knighting.
I don´t link the use of the word "sheeple" to making your comment more worth listening to, not sure where you get that. In this instance I use it to describe a person who makes decisions and even has a change of heart based on the popularity of a subject. For example, quitting a game because it´s nowhere near dying but might have slightly reduced popularity, even if he loves said game. Or listening and being a fan of that artist because everyone does so, or hating on something because others do. Doing anything just because others do it. The definition of sheeple in a nutshell.
But in the context of this discussion, calling someone a sheeple because they leave 40k due to its lack of local popularity, as an example, is not good for a reasonable discussion. As has been mentioned, part of the appeal of 40k is its ubiquity; most people can walk into a store and find a game of 40k. When 40k stops being popular, there's no reason to keep playing, for many reasons. Calling them a sheeple for migrating to a different game that is getting big is just insulting people for no real reason other than you look down on them due to some loyalty to GW.
The reason people leave are many, and while part of that could be due to falling numbers of players, I think its a little insulting to call people sheeple on that criteria alone.
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Mate, it is sometimes plain bashing, but not always. And occasionally the more biased people are actually extremely unreasonable, and making things seem way worse than they actually are. I´m sure you acknowledge both these things.
Many people, of which you are the most recent, accuse me of being anti-GW. The fact of the matter is, as I explained to you recently, more complicated than that.
Let me say this, I find baseless criticism, what I assume you mean by bashing, every bit as distasteful as blind defence/hand waving. I simply seem to encounter a lot more of the latter on Dakka than the former.
I've just signed the petition in the thread in General, and I was genuinely surprised to see that it is closing in on 2500 signatures. Let that sink in, that's 2500 people (ok 2350 or so at time of writing, for full disclosure) who firstly are a) wargamers b) play 40K or FB c) spend time on forums d) have seen that petition and agree with it (ie are unhappy with how GW are operating in the main) and d) can be arsed to sign it (it's taken me several days to even notice there was a link, I just thought it was somebody expressing themselves as an open letter)
Now, given wargamers aren't the most numerous breed of hobbyist out there, when one accounts for all those factors working against it, that number of signatures could actually scale up to a fairly significant number of GW customers. Factor in their ordinary financials for the last year, and that they have declared a very modest interim dividend today (although, unlike this time last year, they have at least declared one) and it is very easy to paint Mr Kirby as captain of a sinking 40K ship.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
I'm back in the game after a year and change off after 6th. I liked 6th, but it only seemed like a step in the right direction. Games were still repetitive sometimes boring, plus the rules changes left us with more questions than answers.
7th has revolutionized the game, maybe not from a tournament perspective, but from a fun perspective. More variety, more choices, means the game isn't the same every time. The 3 book thing, awesome. Sure i miss some of the art, and it's more expensive, but the quality of the printed stuff has gone up with the price. More photos, full color, hard cover... its nice. You can't make everyone happy but I'm back.
You must not be playing a lot, because all the game in 7th look like this. MSU army races to the objective, the player with the luckier mission hand drawn gets the missions. If he army is also not static, he gets firstblood too. And if his opponent doesn't have a better hand or more luck rolling on random VP, he wins. Turn one. I can't remember seeing any turn one wins in real life in 6th and the only one I heard of was one dude tabling himself by casting psychic communion and killing his only model on the table and the tau block board edge.
The power level of a codex does not determine how good it is.
That's why the number of DA players is so huge and chaos had same number of players under the 4th and 6th ed codex.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 00:28:37
You mean the sales that are steadily declining DESPITE releasing a new edition of their flagship game and, before that, a new codex for their most popular army? What, pray tell, do those sales show then? Growth?
Second or third highest ever?
Here's their revenue over the last few years. Sales have been growing, but I can't remember the last few years. These numbers are ones I pulled from the annual report.
And here's their growth in sales. Their sales declined less than 0.1% last year. As you can see, they remain pretty similar YoY.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 00:36:42
Are you mixing up what they can earn with how many number of stuff they sold. They have a sales drop, but because GW buffed up the cost of everything sky high and forces people to buy 3-4 books when normaly they could use 1-2, they earn the same.
You mean the sales that are steadily declining DESPITE releasing a new edition of their flagship game and, before that, a new codex for their most popular army? What, pray tell, do those sales show then? Growth?
Second or third highest ever?
Here's their revenue over the last few years. Sales have been growing, but I can't remember the last few years. These numbers are ones I pulled from the annual report.
And here's their growth in sales. Their sales declined less than 0.1% last year. As you can see, they remain pretty similar YoY.
Their revenue dropped significantly, their profits likewise. Due to inflation, assuming you adjust your prices accordingly, your revenue should increase YoY even if your unit sales remain flat. Therefore your income should always be growing unless your unit sales are shrinking.
GW raise prices above inflation and still experience a ~11% drop in income? That's not good.
EDIT
All this in a market where any available evidence points to overall growth. So GW is contracting in an expanding market.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 00:55:52
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Makumba wrote: Are you mixing up what they can earn with how many number of stuff they sold. They have a sales drop, but because GW buffed up the cost of everything sky high and forces people to buy 3-4 books when normaly they could use 1-2, they earn the same.
I don't have their units sold, but value of sales remained constant. However, GW doesn't jack up prices much differently than CPI or RPI, though there models that obviously bizarrely priced relative to the plastic used.
You mean the sales that are steadily declining DESPITE releasing a new edition of their flagship game and, before that, a new codex for their most popular army? What, pray tell, do those sales show then? Growth?
Second or third highest ever?
Here's their revenue over the last few years. Sales have been growing, but I can't remember the last few years. These numbers are ones I pulled from the annual report.
And here's their growth in sales. Their sales declined less than 0.1% last year. As you can see, they remain pretty similar YoY.
Their revenue dropped significantly, their profits likewise. Due to inflation, assuming you adjust your prices accordingly, your revenue should increase YoY even if your unit sales remain flat. Therefore your income should always be growing unless your unit sales are shrinking.
GW raise prices above inflation and still experience a ~11% drop in income? That's not good.
Here's the RPI and CPI over the same period of time.
Here's recent profits. Their lower revenue is mostly due to royalties from the now defunct THQ.
GW had their third strongest numbers ever last year. Hardly the sign of a company in decline.
People have being talking about GW's death since the 90's. To paraphrase one of the greatest writers ever; talk of GW's death has been greatly exaggerated.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/25 00:59:06
Accolade wrote: I admit that I am not the biggest fan of GW, but I do try to be impartial in my opinion on their state of business and such.
Some stores I've visited in the past few years have remained at their previous levels of 40k, but then the amount the game was played there was never very high. Stores that I've visited that had a lot of 40k going on have seen substantial downturns...the main place I still see 40k being played in respectable numbers is the GW B&M stores.
I think this has less to do with the rules and more to do with the sheer cost of getting into the game. Rules alone set you back at least $130, and for that you're not getting a single miniature. The size of armies at specific point values (i.e. 1000pts, 1500pts) has also increased significantly through the last few editions as unit points have been compressed. What you get is a game that has tremendous start-up costs, and it is very discouraging for new players to join.
And this is something I find quite sad- 40k is being pushed further into obscurity when it was something that was previously becoming more commonplace (e.g. a couple of celebrities admitted to dabbling in 40k, I once met a Carolina Panthers player at a game store). I fear that, with the way things are going, 40k will become a wargame for the grandfathered-in or the wealthy, which paints an image of a bunch of superior-minded players looking down on the unwashed masses playing other wargames. That is a sad future if you ask me.
I think the point you raise with respect to the expense of rules is very relevant. I myself haven't updated to 7th for this very reason, as I can't justify shelling out £80 for rules and a new codex, even if it means I can't play at my local GW anymore. If this is a problem for a dedicated 40k player of 8 years like me, I imagine it's turning potential players right off.
Makumba wrote: Are you mixing up what they can earn with how many number of stuff they sold. They have a sales drop, but because GW buffed up the cost of everything sky high and forces people to buy 3-4 books when normaly they could use 1-2, they earn the same.
I don't have their units sold, but value of sales remained constant. However, GW doesn't jack up prices much differently than CPI or RPI, though there models that obviously bizarrely priced relative to the plastic used.
You mean the sales that are steadily declining DESPITE releasing a new edition of their flagship game and, before that, a new codex for their most popular army? What, pray tell, do those sales show then? Growth?
Second or third highest ever?
Here's their revenue over the last few years. Sales have been growing, but I can't remember the last few years. These numbers are ones I pulled from the annual report.
And here's their growth in sales. Their sales declined less than 0.1% last year. As you can see, they remain pretty similar YoY.
Their revenue dropped significantly, their profits likewise. Due to inflation, assuming you adjust your prices accordingly, your revenue should increase YoY even if your unit sales remain flat. Therefore your income should always be growing unless your unit sales are shrinking.
GW raise prices above inflation and still experience a ~11% drop in income? That's not good.
Here's the RPI and CPI over the same period of time.
Here's recent profits. Their lower revenue is mostly due to royalties from the now defunct THQ.
GW had their third strongest numbers ever last year. Hardly the sign of a company in decline.
People have being talking about GW's death since the 90's. To paraphrase one of the greatest writers ever; talk of GW's death has been greatly exaggerated.
Your analysis is pretty naive, but you think what you think and I disagree. I'm not prepared, however, to drag all this up again as the whole subject has been done to death over the course of the last two reports, and with another due in a little over a month (or early in the New Year at latest) it will all give us plenty of new information to talk about. We can make an assumption that things haven't exactly done a U-turn growth wise due to the very modest dividend declared this week, neither have they imploded. But then, nobody with any credibility has suggested they would, we are talking of the present tense, not the past here. (Dying, not dead.)
Incidentally you mention people predicting the death of GW since the 90s, and you're quite right. They have had two stays of execution in the management buyout and landing the LOTR licence when nobody could have foreseen exactly how successful that would be for them, it might be fun to speculate what could save them if they continue their current trend, because I fear they may need it without a fairly significant culture change and improvement on their products.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/25 02:06:51
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
We actually have 2 warhammer days at my LGS. Wednesdays draw in maybe 5-8 regulars, and Saturdays usually boast twice that. Local tournaments in the area fluctuate between 8 to 20 people. Fantasy has a decent following, with everyone in my group having at least 1 fantasy army alongside 40k.
Now, that was before the recent FAQ shook fantasy up in a big way, so we'll see what happens next.
The presentation of profit over revenue there isn't super illustrating there.
Over the last few years (particularly the last ~5 or so) GW has implemented a number of single-time cost cutting measures (that largely aren't repeatable, such as moving off of metals for minis, closing huge numbers of stores and laying off tons of staff) on top of massive price increases.
They've been cutting anything and everything possible (bye-bye battle bunkers!) while simultaneously raising prices dramatically (for instance, going back to 2006 as above, codex books were $20 and guardsmen were 20 for $35, while now its $50 for a codex and 10 guardsmen for $30...)
Meanwhile their revenue, on the surface, is constant, again, but when you chart the inflation-adjusted revenue for each of those years from above (2006 onward) and you're going to see a downward trend over the entire period.
Simply put, people are buying fewer GW products. There are some other things you can obviously throw in there, the stuff like THQ's implosion, but ultimately, GW just isn't moving as much product.
Using the same date range from earlier (2006-onward) we get the following for inflation adjusted revenue (all numbers calculated in 2014 adjusted values). Out of the last 8 years, 3 have seen revenue increase, 5 revenue decrease (if you extend it back a full decade, to 2004, this only gets worse).
Does this mean GW and Warhammer are dead? No, of course not, but it does show a trend that fewer people are buying fewer things at higher prices and GW's revenue stream bears that out (even if you assume it's merely *constant* and not *declining). This had implications for the game and the hobby. There's a lot more competition that's a lot more high profile than at any point since the late 80's/early 90's (whereas in 2006 you had some Warmachine and maybe Flames of War in some places, now both are much bigger and other games like X-Wing, Infinity, Dropzone Commander, etc are hitting it big), and GW is very obviously a shrinking part of that pie. While I wouldn't say 40k is "dying", it would not at all be inaccurate to say that GW games market presence is shrinking not only relative in size to its competition but also just in the amount of product sold. GW and 40k are still the big Kahuna, but not the *only* Kahuna, and looking to be an increasingly smaller one at that.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/10/25 03:16:39
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
Here's my observation, looking at 4 different stores in the area:
1. 40k in the first store is alive and well, with regular games and events. But there are more veterans in this store, so it feels like there's less growth and excitement. Other games are also played, and there was a brief burst of X-Wing dominance.
2. 40k in the second store is thriving, totally booming. On weekends especially, all tables are full with guys and gals battling it out with glee!
3. 40k in the third store is present as a pulse, with some games on weekends, and the occassional event. This store pushes cards more than anything else though.
4. 40k in the fourth store is probably dead or dying, with no one actively flying the banner.
One thing's for sure, the old formula of having a healthy pipeline of young bloods and keeping the community & excitement level up is just as important today as it was 10 years ago - and that's what store #2 has. From my personal gaming and hobby circles, the pattern is similar - most of the grizzled veterans have not touched 40k since 7th, while the new and mid-bloods have dived into in a frenzy. A handful of veterans, including myself, are the exception.
Overall, I think 40k has certainly lost its dominance. But it's far from dying. It might need a much better set of management in GW, but it's very much alive.
Member of Legio Malaysia
http://spunkybass.blogspot.com/
Fake statistics aside... Consider that while statistics dont lie, people who use them do. Therefore, anyone can manipulate them to say anything they want them to say.
In actuality, it is as strong as it ever was. The games are cyclic. Lets face it, it is expensive and people grow bored so players rotate though games and trade off.
This means that this 8 months 40k might boom in an area and slack off the next 4. Meanwhile, in an adjacent town, it might be reversed.
The whole question only exists because of players experiencing sour grapes because the game did not go the way THEY wanted it to go so they are trying everything they can to make it look like the end of the world and convince others to boycott the game in an effort to stranglehold GW to revert to earlier editions where the exploits they liked were on top. This is the worst case of this behavior we have had in a while but not because the numbers are different, but because this time around the numbers happen to be more vocal and the internet allows them to spam their propoganda to make it look bigger than it is.
So overall, its just as good as before.
I fully expect to get slammed for this post but I'm used to that
clively wrote: "EVIL INC" - hardly. More like "REASONABLE GOOD GUY INC". (side note: exalted)
EVIL INC wrote: Fake statistics aside... Consider that while statistics dont lie, people who use them do. Therefore, anyone can manipulate them to say anything they want them to say.
In actuality, it is as strong as it ever was. The games are cyclic. Lets face it, it is expensive and people grow bored so players rotate though games and trade off. This means that this 8 months 40k might boom in an area and slack off the next 4. Meanwhile, in an adjacent town, it might be reversed.
The whole question only exists because of players experiencing sour grapes because the game did not go the way THEY wanted it to go so they are trying everything they can to make it look like the end of the world and convince others to boycott the game in an effort to stranglehold GW to revert to earlier editions where the exploits they liked were on top. This is the worst case of this behavior we have had in a while but not because the numbers are different, but because this time around the numbers happen to be more vocal and the internet allows them to spam their propoganda to make it look bigger than it is. So overall, its just as good as before. I fully expect to get slammed for this post but I'm used to that
You're such a brave martyr
What is this, Faux News? Seriously, you say that people are making up their own information about the statistics of dropping sales from GW, but then *you* make the claim that the game is doing awesome, honky-dorey, peachy-keen. Why should I believe you any more than those on the other side? At least they have some data to back up their claims...and it might be overstated at times, but again it's backed up.
I also don't get the whole generalization of the other side, aka people who aren't pro-GW, as sour-graping-eating grumps who exist solely to destroy GW. You must have a pretty low opinion of these people if you think they spend all this time griping about GW for the sole purpose of trying to bring about destruction of the company.
Again, I don't get it. You don't like GW's practices, sure, whatever. You love what GW does, sure again, whatever. Loving or hating them has no bearing on what is going on with the company, and if there are signs pointing to the grasp of 40k getting weaker, then there is no reason to sit and ignore it. That's what happened with WHFB, and it has been drifting further and further into obscurity. Ignoring the signs won't change what's happening.
I fully expect to get slammed for this post, because I know the thing anti-GW people don't want you to know.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/10/25 03:53:40
The statistics come largely from GW's own investor reports. In those GW tried to spin it as "all good" for several years, but when you consider their largest investor outside of Kirby pulled out this year its apparent GW's main investor doesn't think things are good.
EVIL INC wrote: Fake statistics aside... Consider that while statistics dont lie, people who use them do. Therefore, anyone can manipulate them to say anything they want them to say.
In actuality, it is as strong as it ever was. The games are cyclic. Lets face it, it is expensive and people grow bored so players rotate though games and trade off.
This means that this 8 months 40k might boom in an area and slack off the next 4. Meanwhile, in an adjacent town, it might be reversed.
The whole question only exists because of players experiencing sour grapes because the game did not go the way THEY wanted it to go so they are trying everything they can to make it look like the end of the world and convince others to boycott the game in an effort to stranglehold GW to revert to earlier editions where the exploits they liked were on top. This is the worst case of this behavior we have had in a while but not because the numbers are different, but because this time around the numbers happen to be more vocal and the internet allows them to spam their propoganda to make it look bigger than it is.
So overall, its just as good as before.
I fully expect to get slammed for this post but I'm used to that
You may well get slammed for this post, but the reason you think you're used to it is because you think you get attacked in every thread you participate in, regardless of whether anyone actually attacks you or not. (Pro tip: they usually aren't - in fact never in my observation.)
In regard to your fairly poorly supported other point, you realise that GW revenue has been essentially flat for years right? That only people who feel compelled to defend them seem to think this is fine? This isn't an '8 month cycle' this is an endemic problem which has been showing symptoms for years.
Oh, and if you're happy to think it's a big conspiracy when people use GW's own figures to support their arguments about whether GW is doing fine or not then fair enough, but you're unlikely to get much traction on any of your own arguments.
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
Don't worry, if GW keeps the course of raising prices, adding more random, non-playtested nonsense to the rules, and continues to become even more insular, they'll just swing right back!
Mordian Iron Guard - Major Overhaul in Progress
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Live near Halifax, NS? Ask me about our group, the Ordo Haligonias!
Youve obviously never studied history or economics or statistcs. You can make up any statistic to say anything you want it to say.
But yes, this is done every day across the world in all countries. i dont expect you to understand the concept. it may just be that you have not yet had experience with it yet. No problems and you are forgiven. However, this thread is not dedicated to the education of those unfamilier with statistics and politics, it is about where or not "40k is dead". just putting out there the statement that it is alive and well. If you disagree, that is your right just as I expect my right to make my statement to be honored.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 04:25:12
clively wrote: "EVIL INC" - hardly. More like "REASONABLE GOOD GUY INC". (side note: exalted)
Yes, lets not try to point out any problems you see in them or make an argument as to why they're wrong, just go ahead and call them fake and discount them...
All the info's straight from GW's own financials, simply adjusted to 2014 dollars (using the CPI index for inflation) and plotted it onto a graph with a trendline.
Also, we're not talking about 8 months here, 4 months there, we're looking at a *trend* over 8 years (which get *way* worse if you plot it back 10 to 2004) and looking at the *overall* trend, not just a short cycle of weeks or months.
EVIL INC wrote: Youve obviously never studied history or economics or statistcs.
I however have, I hold a B.S. in Economics and a Master in Business Administration.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 04:24:19
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
So your saying that no one has ever in the history of mankind used statistics in a dishonest manner to say what they wanted them to say? That IS what you are saying.
The point is someone posts a home made graph to say that GW is dead and the company is going bankrupt ect ect and that it is ALL the fault of a few rule changes in one of the many products released by the company.
Where is the verification that the "stats" are legit to begin with? IF they are legit, we would need more info to go on.
like what time of the year was the numbers taken?
was this timing consistent throughout?
What were the releases in each of the given time frames ?
Resources, what was the cost of raw materials?
Was there any differences in shipping costs?
It could go all the way to the housing market and the value of the dollar bill.
All can affect the outcome of the numbers. It would not only be foolish to just take a home made graph as gospel of the demise of a company, it would be downright idiotic. Not saying that anyone here is doing that of course, just pointing out that you need not only more than that but more info. GW has gone up and down over the years slightly but the 40k game itself hfluctuates wilding across the world in different ways at different locations. Where today it is rampant, 6 months from now, it may be all fantasy or warmachine. a year after that, it comes back full circle.
It may well be going downhill but all evidence shows otherwise. I'm not going to nail the coffin shut till there is a body in it and a few sour grapes from a few players doesnt look to me like its gonna put a body in there.
Of course, you can turn this into a lets flame and troll at EVIL for 8-12 pages going totally off topic or you can stay on topic and just accept that I have a different view and experiences than you do. Might not be as much fun, but would be less hassle for us all. I dont tell you what to think or try to force you to agree with me. I accept that you have different views and opinions (after all, this thread is opinion based) i put my views out there in a polite and respectful manner. I expect you to do the same.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 04:55:01
clively wrote: "EVIL INC" - hardly. More like "REASONABLE GOOD GUY INC". (side note: exalted)
EVIL INC wrote: So your saying that no one has ever in the history of mankind used statistics in a dishonest manner to say what they wanted them to say? That IS what you are saying.
The point is someone posts a home made graph to say that GW is dead and the company is going bankrupt ect ect and that it is ALL the fault of a few rule changes in one of the many products released by the company.
Where is the verification that the "stats" are legit to begin with? IF they are legit, we would need more info to go on.
like what time of the year was the numbers taken?
was this timing consistent throughout?
What were the releases in each of the given time frames ?
Resources, what was the cost of raw materials?
Was there any differences in shipping costs?
It could go all the way to the housing market and the value of the dollar bill.
All can affect the outcome of the numbers. It would not only be foolish to just take a home made graph as gospel of the demise of a company, it would be downright idiotic. Not saying that anyone here is doing that of course, just pointing out that you need not only more than that but more info. GW has gone up and down over the years slightly but the 40k game itself hfluctuates wilding across the world in different ways at different locations. Where today it is rampant, 6 months from now, it may be all fantasy or warmachine. a year after that, it comes back full circle.
It may well be going downhill but all evidence shows otherwise. I'm not going to nail the coffin shut till there is a body in it and a few sour grapes from a few players doesnt look to me like its gonna put a body in there.
Ok, you're going off on so many tangents and red-herrings it's absurd here. (not to mention most of the things you're talking about are cost/profit related, not revenue related). Also, nobody said GW is going bankrupt What was said was that GW's revenue is declining if you account for inflation, and that fact, coupled with the very large prices increases over that same 8 year period on a very large number of products (with examples given), leads to the conclusion that fewer products are being sold.
Stable or declining revenue+higher prices on products means a lower total volume of sales. There may be other things that occasionally occur, THQ's implosion meant about a million dollars in revenue less, but that's not big enough to affect the overall trend, especially not coupled with the price increases (with most products notably more expensive than in previous years, some as much as 100% or more, like Codes books, Dire Avengers, etc).
The source of the numbers has been explained. I'll underline it so it's not lost again.
GW's own financial statements giving year-to-date revenue.
What was done to them was explained.
Adjust them for inflation to 2014 dollars via the CPI index and simply put a trend line to it.
Instead of actually saying what's wrong with the numbers, you're simply repeating over and over how you can't trust statistics (as opposed to actually pointing out anything wrong with them or if/how they're being applied incorrectly) and throwing out a whole bunch of garbage about costs (not something relevant to total revenue) and business cycles (8 years through 4 different editions of Warhammer 40,000 is plenty of time, and, I'll repeat myself for a third time, if we plot it out to ten years, the oldest year I can find data for, it only looks worse for GW) and getting into *housing markets* (seriously, at this point you're widening the variables to the extent that, by your standards, any basic business valuation or statistical operation would be infinitely complex) while yammering about how a "home-made graph" (i.e. I didn't make it look pretty in Excel) cannot be trusted.
Well, go check GW's financial's yourself, go to any one of a million places with the CPI index for the year, and run the math yourself. Should take all of 5 minutes in Excel. If you then have a problem and can point out where it is, I'm all ears.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/25 05:16:26
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
Mordian Iron Guard - Major Overhaul in Progress 
5,000
