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chaos0xomega wrote:

 kirotheavenger wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Saw some people saying there were rumors of TOW sales cratering late last year or earlier this year and that demand didnt sustain itself past the initial wave of nostalgia releases.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me. I've not really seen anyone playing it beyond dusting off their existing collection (and maybe expanding it a little).
It certainly didn't help the game that the initial release state was quite poor, and by the time they materially improved the situation well the launch hype was gone and the reputation was there.

I honestly have no idea what it is you're trying to say here. I think the initial release state was pretty good, the launch hype was solid, and the game had a positive reception and reputation?

 streetsamurai wrote:

chaos0xomega wrote:
Saw some people saying there were rumors of TOW sales cratering late last year or earlier this year and that demand didnt sustain itself past the initial wave of nostalgia releases.

AFAIK, the vast majority of the sales of a kit are in the few weeks following release. So a big dip in sales would be expected. I think that the best indicator of the long term viability of the game are the sales of the grand cathay kits. Again, AFAIK, they sold extremely well, and at the very least, we know that a lot of these kits/boxes were sold out for a long time

Thats hyperbolic. Yes, demand for a new kit will always be heaviest at launch, but the idea that post-launch sales are miniscule or insignificant isnt quite accurate. If that were true, then space marines would not be consistent best sellers (not every release is a space marine release, after all), likewise new players would constantly be entering the game without ever buying 80-90% of a given factions catalog, etc. Which just isn't a realistic stance to take.

A successful miniatures product line will continue to have a sustained baseline level of demand and sales volume and demand for months or years after release, driven by newcomers to the game system or ongoing sales to existing customers. If sales are cratering (again, this is rumor, grain of salt and all that), that implies that sales volume/demand is approaching zero or dropping below an expected sales baseline, in turn implying a lack of growth or continuing sales to established customers.

I dont think space marines are a good comparaison for any other range....

Anyway, i dont know how anybody would think TOW would be a hot seller with the (minisculous) amount of effort they gave to the game. How many people are down to put money down for these horribles tk skelletons and chariots??? If the game will ever lift, it will need a lot more support than it got

In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.
Also at the same time the completely new army could be sumarised as baloon warfare which, yeah. Also no hung and Mung whilest implementing cathay is still like ?!?

The only ever numbers and statement on that "we" got was during the chapterhouse case

there GW showed that any other kit had low to 0 sales outside their new codex release window except the Space Marine tactical squad box, because that one sold with any Space Marine or Chaos Space Marine book release (to the surprise of no one, but this is also where the idea came from that the TT kit outsold every other line from GW, despite we never got any numbers on total sales for the different IPs)

that being a long time ago it explains the current release and sales strategy of GW, as models sell best if there is a book released as well and all from a faction is best released together etc.

this is why Cathay got 2 books (or AdMech in the past), because there were too many sets for a single release, and a 2nd release without a book won't sell as well

That is why Necromunda got that many books instead of just releasing the new models or why Blood Bowl has seasons and why 40k is so focused on Marines because vanilla sets sell with every other flavour

Which basically means that anything for TOW without a major release won't sell as well as those that have one
But also that GW doesn't expect those to sell, which also might be why we got reports that the sales surprised GW as on release "everything" sold, saw a spike again with the Journal and now it is back to what is expected

In other words, it has been doing reasonably OK despite GW's best efforts.

Actually whilst I think new models sell well alongside a book I don't think its required that new models sell alongside a book for good sales.

We have to consider a few things

1) Back then GW generally didn't do many releases outside of when a book got released for an army. So armies which went a long time between codex/battletomes not only had to run with out of date rules; but also had an aging model line. Sisters of Battle are a perfect example of this.

2) As a result of Chapterhouse and also the increase in 3D printing, the 3rd party market today is capable of bringing a model to the market before GW can. As soon as GW previews something; makers can start making.
As a result GW doesn't want to release 1 book with half an army of unreleased models inside because the 3rd party market will swoop in.

3) GW today releases a good chunk of models that don't come in a battletome/codex. Heroes are released all the time for AoS armies; Killteam and (when it had updates) Warcry also add models to armies without coming alongside a main army book.


I think its more true to say that models get a bump in sales during their release window; but that that release window doesn't have to coincide with a new book. Of course pair the two up and the potential is greater; but functionally if you're adding a lot of models you typically need to be adding a book of some kind for the new elements being introduced.

Also lets not forget its been a large number of years since Chapterhouse. GW as a firm; the market and so forth might well have shifted in patterns since then.

 Overread wrote:
Actually whilst I think new models sell well alongside a book I don't think its required that new models sell alongside a book for good sales.

may not be required, but at the moment, the sales strategy from GW is what it is, new models only alongside new books and no real "support" outside the release weeks.

and yes, 3D artists trying to get their "almost" copies out the same weekend as GW releases their models (sculpting them off the pre-order previews) just confirms that to a point

Also Killteam is an example for this, models outside the book release not worth doing in the main game, so a side game is used to get them done and sold.
Might be that enough 40k players buy them as well but the "release" isn't new models for 40k without book support but a new Kill Team box

no one saying that it doesn't work any other way, just that GW settled with it and it works very well for them

On staggered releases? There’s also hobbyist’s budgets to be considered.

GW has the data from its sales to break that down to median and average. We do not. And of course I can’t prove, but I strongly suspect that whatever the average identified is? It’ll correlate with a release wave, and the gaps between them.

Example of what I’m wibbling about, with numbers purely for illustration?

If your sales data shows that the average sale for a new army is £250 in a month? Then you probably don’t want to be releasing units where the combined cost is £400. Instead, you stagger it across a couple of waves, allowing hobbyist budgets to refresh in between.

This also helps guide your production volumes overall.

Again, this is just a wild claim by some tosser on the internet. I have no privileged information, I cannot support it beyond the absolute certainty that GW has access to the sort of sales data that would allow for such considerations.

GW did an errata-updated rulebook for MESBG (standalone and in a big shiny starter set and accompanied by MESBG's first heavily discounted "combat patrols", promoting the system to new players) a year before releasing a full rewrite edition. Invalidating new books is just a regular Tuesday to them. "It wouldn't have a long shelf life" is never a good argument against GW doing something

I'm not sure why any discussion of TOW's profitability would apply the same metrics for success as their more conventional lines. TOW is almost entirely comprised of kits whose molds and sculpts were paid for literally decades ago. It doesn't have to sell well to still turn a profit when the investment and overhead are negligible, and only the new kits have any need to recoup design and tooling costs.

If TOW really is struggling and GW is considering pulling the plug, the first thing they'll do is stop pumping more money into it. So if we go, say, a year without any substantial releases, then it's time to worry.

Not Online!!! wrote:
In essence they have relaunched it with too little of a needed facelift for some factions.
Left out some factions with the most dedicated following (points in skaven direction).
And only now started with facelifting see new marauders f.e. whilest still not actually having attempted to fix up certain armies lack of interactions with certain phases.

Yeah, TOW needed more. I am an oldhead now, I suppose, but not such an oldhead that the 20th century skeletons have enough charm in them for me to pay 2026 GW prices for them.

Cathay was great. We needed more of that and sooner.