GW CEO steps down/financial latest

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**Fenrir Kitsune**

-Loki- wrote:
xcasex wrote:
Sooo.. aside from the snide remarks on Tom Kirby, what's his trackrecord like?

He was running GW until he brought in Wells, then went over to the US to help restructure and gave the CEO position to Wells. So basically, more of the same. I'd say Wells might have been even better since he led GW through the LotR bubbles which improved their plastic technology.

I thought Wells came in after the LotR buble has finished? 2007/8 would be when he joined.

**Compel**

Nope, my 'conspiracy' scenario would be something like:

I'm guessing Wells still has whatever shares he has.

So it's more likely in my mind to be a sort of 'phased outage.'

Wells leaves now, prices keep going up.

Wells sells his shares in a years time.

Prices go up again. Kirby announces his impending retirement in a couple of years. Prices still go up. Kirby eventually retires, selling his shares, inflated due to the price rises shortly before his retirement.

Not long after that, the last price rise is shown to be truly unsustainable, GW collapses in some form (eg bought by disney/hasbro etc), Kirby can go to wherever he wants saying 'hey, I kept the company afloat, what happened afterwards, not my problem.'

This all chimes with all the 'short term gains' sense I've got from things. Even Rick Priestley has made some comments in talking about his new Beyond The Gates of Antares game that, while he can't argue that GW is making money, their prices aren't good for the long term growth of the hobby.

**H.B.M.C.**

Compel wrote:
This all chimes with all the 'short term gains' sense I've got from things. Even Rick Priestley has made some comments in talking about his new Beyond The Gates of Antares game that, while he can't argue that GW is making money, their prices aren't good for the long term growth of the hobby.

I think the current rapid price increase (something Kingsley thinks is a myth but anyone with eyes can see) is all to do with this. I described it to Kroothawk in another thread as going "Full Hobbit". Once the Hobbit reaches its peak, which will be determined by the success (or failure) of the next movie, that's when we'll see the rapid sale of shares and Kirby/Wells gliding away to greener pastures on their golden parachutes.

**zombie**

Wayshuba wrote:
boyd wrote:

Who is the majority you speak of? Is it the majority of Dakka Members? Are you looking at active members or is it the people that you talk to on a regular basis? Looking at their financial statements, it doesn't look like the majority of the players have moved on - it looks like there is some growth. Their financials show they are consistent.

Actually, their financials show a cause for much concern. Especially to a longer term investor such as myself.

Let me explain:

With an average price increase of more than 20% last year coupled with a decrease in manufacturing costs, GW should have shown growth of around 20%-25% if things were flat volume wise, but they only had a 7% gain in revenue which represents a drop of about 15% in actual sales volume. (This is why companies like Apple report both revenue and unit sales so investors can see the forward growth momentum). Anyone who has been on the planet as many years as I have knows this is foreshadowing some serious trouble down the road and when it comes, it comes fast and hard. Also, considering the timing of the recent CEOs departure, I have a sneaking suspicion that the signs are already apparent in the company and this may be a closer event to realization than most realize. Better to get out at the top than wait for the ride down.

Secondly, GW hasn't done much new in the last five years. No new games, no trying to develop new properties, heck, no real new armies, etc. They are milking the cash cow just like Kodak milked the film camera cow while the digital camera age overtook them. To many people's point, GW is a long term investment for a gamer, which means new properties to keep them going - not rehashing the same old ones again and again.

Third, reading their statements is scary in that it is obvious management is completely oblivious to the growing competition out there. This, again, reminds me of Kodak during the waning years of film. All management kept telling the shareholders was that digital would be niche and film would continue to rule the world. In fact, Kodak said this all the way up to their entry into bankruptcy.

For those that have been into the hobby industry for a time like I have, there were similar discussions around TSR when they we the big boys on the block. Everyone said they wouldn't be gone tomorrow, their the kings of the hobby business (and they were at the time). Lo and behold, two years later there were gone. Gone over to WoTC, but gone none the less. Unfortunately, GW is in fact beginning to show the same early warning signs of impending trouble.

I agree with everything and I think the comparison to Kodak is a good one.

Well then hopefully unlike TSR the new owners will be more aware of the value of the long term customer base. While I do not want to see GW fail I find the current path is not going to lead to success