Looks like the real question has been covered: ignore everything that isn't a necron and pound him till phase out. But the following is a bit wonky...
Nofasse 'Eadhunta wrote:Well, we tested Ghaz on the Nightbringer since the Nightbringer is the CC monster of either C'tan. The Nightbringer has to score at least 4 hits out of 5 attacks (we're assuming Ghaz got the charge), each attack having a 50% chance to hit. We estimated that about 3 will hit. Now he has to wound Ghaz, which will happen about 80% of the time. Say they both wound, Ghaz is at 2 now since he gets no saves. Now Ghaz attacks, he's got 7 attacks and needs to hit with 5, each attack hitting 50% of the time. At least 4 will hit. Ghaz will wound 80% of the time, so say 3 wound the Nightbringer. The Nightbringer will make his save 50%, so he'll likely make 1. 2 wounds on the Nightbringer. So combat was a draw, but if Ghaz had some Nobs with him, assuming he has 5, with 3 Power Klaws and 2 Big Choppas, the Nightbringer would likely be dead by the time Ghaz attacks.
Now the Deceiver. So let's assume the Deceiver charged. He's got 5 attacks at WS 5, so he'd be hitting 50% of the time. This time, 3 hit. Again, 80% wounding, so let's say 2 wound. Now Ghaz goes, 5 attacks hitting a good 70% of the time, so 3 hit. 80% wounding again, so 3 wound. Deceiver gets his saves and saves 1, so he takes 2 wounds. With the aforementioned Nob squad, likelihood says down goes the Deceiver. Necron guy would have to charge his Deceiver for that to happen, and if he knows better, he'll go after my Big Mek or Kanz for example.
I've got a unit of 15 Lootas and a squadron of KMB Kanz too, so chances are the C'tan will be wounded before the above combats. Who knows, it might even be dead.
Wow, that's an odd way of doing statistics, is this the new math I hear so much about? Let's use some actual numbers, eh (and mind you, I was comparing the Deceiver against Ghaz alone, but the addition of 5 nobs is not as good a move as you would think)?
Ghaz + 5 nobs (3klaw, 2 big choppa)
vs. The Nightbringer (since Orks can be fleet, let's assume they get off the charge)
Nightbringer goes at the same time as the
BC nobs, for max combat res the NB attacks the nobs;
5 attacks, hitting on 3s, killing on 2s = 5(2/3)(5/6) = 2.78 wounds. Since he's S10 and Nobs aren't immune to instant death, that's 2-3 dead nobs, let's round and say 3 (killing a klaw nob), combat res of 6.
BC Nobs, 8 attacks, hitting on 4s, wounding on 5s, 4+ save = 8(1/2)(1/3)(1/2) = 0.67 wounds.
Then
PK nobs and Ghaz,
PK Nobs, 8 attacks, hitting on 4s, wounding on 3s, 4+ save = 8(1/2)(2/3)(1/2) = 1.33 wound
Ghaz, 7 attacks, hitting on 4s, wounding on 2s, 4+ save = 7(1/2)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.46 wounds. Orks inflict 3.46 total wounds (round to 3)
Nightbringer wins combat (2 wounds remaining), 6 wounds to 3, Ghaz is making a leadership 6 check to stay. Let's be generous and say he makes it ('course, on average he runs and is caught...)
Nightbringer goes first, allocates 3 attacks to the nobs, 2 to Ghaz,
3(2/3)(5/6) = 1.67 wounds, round to 2, 2 dead nobs, combat res of 4.
2(1/2)(5/6) = .83 wounds, round to 1, combat res of 5 now.
Ghaz makes 5 attacks, 5(1/2)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.04 wounds, round to 1.
Nightbringer wins combat (1 wound remaining), 5 to 1, Ghaz (3 wounds remaining) must now make a leadership 5 test to stay.
Next round Nightbringer puts 5 attacks on Ghaz, 5(1/2)(5/6) = 2.08 wounds,
Ghaz makes 5 attacks, 5(1/2)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.04 wounds, round to 1.
Ghaz wins! (Well, he does if Ghaz manages 2 unlikely leadership tests, and assuming the necron player keeps his pariahs and so on back... a pariah within 12", after all, makes those moral checks even harsher).
Ghaz + 5 nobs (3klaw, 2 big choppa)
vs. Deceiver (as pointed out, the Deceiver cannot be charged, so he gets the charge off)
Deceiver goes first, 5 attacks against the nobs, 5(2/3)(5/6) = 2.78 wounds, round to 3, 3 dead nobs so
CR of 6.
Ghaz and 2
PK nobs;
PK Nobs 6 attacks, hitting on 4s, wounding on 4s, 4+ save = 6(1/2)(1/2)(1/2) = 0.75 wounds, round to 1.
Ghaz 5 attacks, hitting on 3s, wounding on 2s, 4+ save = 5(2/3)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.39 wounds, round to 1
The Deceiver (3 wounds remaining) wins combat 6 to 2, Ghaz must make a leadership 5 test to stay (Again, on average he dies, but let's be sporting).
Next turn the Deceiver leaves combat during the Ork assault phase, no attacks made. Let's be sporting and assume none of the Necron army decides to take a potshot at ol' G-man while he stands there sucking his green thumb.
Deceiver charges, goes first;
3 attacks on the Nobs 3(2/3)(5/6) = 1.67 wounds, 2 dead nobs.
2 on Ghaz, 2(1/2)(5/6) = 0.83 wounds, round to 1. Deceiver has a
CR of 5.
Ghaz 5 attacks, hitting on 3s, wounding on 2s, 4+ save = 5(2/3)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.39 wounds, round to 1,
CR of 1.
Deceiver (2 wounds) wins combat against Ghaz (3 wounds) 5 to 1, yadda yadda. Deceiver scrams during Ork turn, charges in Necron turn.
Deceiver 5(1/2)(5/6) = 2.08 wounds, round to 2.
Ghaz 5(2/3)(5/6)(1/2) = 1.39 wounds, round to 1.
Deceiver (1 wound) wins combat against Ghaz (1 wound) 2 to 1, yadda yadda. Deceiver scrams during Ork turn, charges in Necron turn.
Deceiver 5(1/2)(5/6) = 2.08 wounds, Ghaz is dead.
The Deceiver wins in 3 turns*!
*Remember, in my original statement of 2 turns, it was Deceiver against Ghaz alone.
