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I'm finally starting to build out my chapter, and was planning on trying the 500pt -> 750pt -> 1000pt -> 1250pt+ route for building and learning. Much of my list is based on what I have, so if there's something out of whack, that may be the cause...

500pt -
HQ - Company Captain w/ power sword, melta bombs
Troops - Tac Squad: 1 sgt, 7 bolter maries, 1 flamer, 1 missile launcher
Troops - Scout Squad: 1 sqt w/ chainsword, 5 sniper scouts, 3 bolt pistol & CCW scouts, 1 Hvy Bolter scout
Heavy - Predator w/Autocannon (no sponsons)

This is 500 points even, and provides me with not only the troops I need, but a nice armored target to draw fire (should be useful in smaller games).

The plan would be to infiltrate my scouts to a good firing location, then move my tac squad in with the predator as mobile cover unless I'm facing serious anti-armor, in which case I keep my marines at blasts-length from my rolling ammo dump...

At this point level, I would not expect too much armor, so the anti-infantry of the snipers/HB scouts should be effective. And just in case, the captain does tote some melta bombs.

Does this seem reasonable, or am I rolling ?

I would suggest you and your friends try playing with combat patrol rules. That would stop you and you're friends from using heavy armor tanks that would just ruin the game at such a low point level. The predator would either draw fire (from strong anti-armor and die, it's not THAT durable) or just be ignored because it's only spitting out two auto-cannon shots a turn, which would only statistically kill an ork or two, a bug or two, a guard or two, maybe on space marine, etc, etc.

Yeah do the 40k in 40 min rules. You're pred wouldn't be allowed (nothing with a total armor higher then 33 adding up front,side,rear) but the game is quick and easy and makes the battles a bit more fair.

You could go with a Captain, 2x10 Tacs and a Pred. Then add Rhinos, MM Dreads and HB Preds as you expand.