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And how can I tell? I won't have a good feel for the rules until I've played some games...

After about 7 games under my belt (only between 1000-1500 points) I'm liking the following guidelines.

Archers 2-3 (small enough to not lose out too many bases of shots when in defended obstacles)
Light Cav (Def 4/5) 5-6 (but watch out for artillery)
Heavy cav (Def 6) 4-5 (again, artillery)
Horde Infantry 4+
Heavy Infantry 3-4 (Balance of keeping them maneuverable and resilient)
Elite Infantry (high point cost rare slots usually) 2-3 (mostly a point cost thing, and these tend to be all metal anyway, so any larger can get expensive)

Again these are just guidelines, and could well change in my mind as I get more games in. Also depends on the army as a whole and which army.

D'you reckon the Mob Rule makes larger formations more palatable? I'm unsure.

Mob Rule is disgustingly good. It doesn't seem like it would make a huge difference, but it definitely can.

I think that if you're running a horde, you have to run the big formations, realizing that you're giving up maneuverability. It just means that you have to better protect your flanks and be big enough to take what would otherwise be some pretty devastating charge, if it weren't for your numbers.

So, if I'm going to go for it, do a big unit of 9 or nothing? Possibly using monsters and elite units to protect flanks?

I don't fancy painting 18 stands of Mordor Orcs, but 9 Mordor Orcs and 9 Moria Goblins could be done.

Edit: Looking at it, I'd need six more stands for a 9 strong formation. That would give me a 7 strong 2 handed weapon formation and a 7 stand bow formation too. Ouch. Six more stands is over 120 euros worth. That is pretty damn expensive.

Well, I wouldn't say 9 or nothing. You do want to consider the seize the prize scenario and its 5 objectives. A faster, more maneuverable army might get the majority of the objectives early on and then play keep away for the duration of the game.

Those formations of 9 will be rock hard, but may be easily avoided. I'd want at least 3 main battle formations at 1500, or so, for a little more flexibility and objective grabbing.

Before you get everything painted up, play out different options. Just consider that my advice is coming after only 7 games or so. I'm also importing a lot of tactical/strategic assumptions form the SBG and WHFB.

I was thinking something along the lines of a big, chunky unit of Mordor orcs with hand weapons and shields, with a supporting smaller unit with 2 handed weapons and a big unit of morannon orcs with hand weapons. And a unit of archers.

That would be my infantry core. I figure I'll work my way up as you suggest. I need to get some games under my belt . It's going to be fun working this stuff out.

Yeah, I agree, figuring this out through playing has been fun. You mentioned 2-handed weapons... they're amazing. Goblins can spam them the best.
From what I've seen the difference between S3 and S4 is neglible (considering how the S/D chart works), but +1 to wound is huge. I'll definitely be fielding 2handed weapons every chance I can get.

Da Boss wrote:D'you reckon the Mob Rule makes larger formations more palatable? I'm unsure.

Mob Rule allows you to make up for your generally lower Fight Values - as O&G, you'll be giving your opponents a few extra dice because you're (IIRC) Fight 3 and they're Fight 4-5 (if they're Dwarves or Elves or Human Cavalry). So having an extra 2 bases over the regular size of your opponent's formations bings you back even. It's seemed to me that Humans tend to be 5-8 bases of "line" infantry (6 seems to be the standard) and Dwarves/Elves gravitate toward formations of 4 bases, so you'll want 4-6 (leaning towards 6). This puts you on even footing with the Humans, and makes up for your lower Fight Value against Elves/Dwarves.