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Right; Ogryns. Only two flaws, Leadership and Speed. Lets assume you think their point cost is justifyed and I agree, they will be fine as long as you don't often have to deal with str10 pie!

With that in mind I've tried to come up with two different themes with the same goal, Ogryn Smash!

HQ:
Commissar Yarrick = 185

Troops:
Veteran Squad
+3x Melta
+Chimera
+HHF = 155

Veteran Squad
+3x Melta
+Chimera
+HHF = 155

Veteran Squad
+3x Plasma
+Chimera = 170

Elites:
6x Ogryns
+Chimera
+HHF = 305

5x Ogryns
+Chimera
+HHF = 265

5x Ogryns
+Chimera
+HHF = 265

Total = 1500

(Edit: Hydra's! That could well be the answer/supplement to the above list. Perhaps @ higher point levels add them in or to simple remove a Mech Ogryns squad. Much as a self-reminder as anything else.)

So this is the mechenised version. Is there enough clout between the three Ogryn squads, backed up by Yarrick whom bolsters their LD to 10 (Aura of discipline) and greatly improves the combat prowess of one 5-man squad. The veterans score and deal with meltaerable things. Besides SMF which 6 multi-lasers will have a hard time dealing with, what else is wrong with the above list?

Moving onto the second list; A foot-based one that makes use of the Move!Move!Move! to retain mobility. Some mobile melta platforms (Yes, two tanks is quite a low threshold but with a first turn smoke-pop and fast move, theres not much more I can do!).

HQ:
CCS
+regimental standard
+vox
+2x melta = 90

Commissar Yarrick = 185
Troops:
Infantry Platoon
PCS
+4x Flamers

3x Infantry squad
+1x Vox
+3x Power weapon
+3x Flamer
+1x Squad krak grenades = 260

2x Penal Legions = 160

Elites:
7x Ogryns = 290

6x Ogryns = 250

Fast Attack:
1x Devil dog
+HHF = 120

1x Devil dog
+HHF = 120

Total = 1475

Which do you prefer, if at all. Why? And what else?

Thanks

The Ogryns seem like they would be an incredible unit to get into close shooting and combat, but much like the Sisters Repentia, will be hard pressed to get there.

If I was going to go with footslogging Ogryns, one thing to take into consideration is how much terrain and cover you can benefit from.

Can a player show up with additional terrain, and build a city-scape at your FLGS? I can't imagine many players turning down a well-painted set of manufactoriums, for instance.

It seems insane to take ogryns when you can take allied Grey Knight Terminators for almost the same price. Yarrick is extremely overpriced, take a tooled out CCS (medic, meltas or plasmas, carapace and bodyguards maybe) with Straken instead for counterattack and furious charge.

Why is yarrick over-priced? What does he give you; A commissar lord (with eternal warrior), a priest (that can join Ogryns!) annd a strong melee fighter aswell as being pretty touch to take down.

I dont like the allied rules & im not of the opinion that GKT's are better. Ogryns can absorb plasma fire quite happily, yet those shots will shred a GKT sqaud. In terms of combat prowess, go try taking on a squad of 6 and see how you fare.

What needs counter-attack? Furious charge my Ogryns already have, thanks. This isn't a blob-guard assault army. Its an Ogryn themed one!

Razerous wrote:Right; Ogryns. Only two flaws, Leadership and Speed.

I was going to comment, but once I read this... I knew there was no hope.

Ogryns have no assault power. They're a tarpit (and not even a very effective tarpit - they'll run away at the drop of a hat) in an army that doesn't want tarpits - Guard need speed-bumps.

You want the enemy to chew through a cheap, pointless squad, only for them to get blasted by the rest of the army.

Coupled with that, is the Ogryn's actual inability to HURT what they fight. They bounce off any dedicated close-combat unit, and even struggle to take down a squad of Tactical Marines. I can see no reasonable use for Ogryns.

Also, Yarrick is way overpriced. He's tough like old jerky, sure, but he doesn't contribute anything to your army that a regular Commissar Lord (already a very casual choice) doesn't already give you for 1/3 the points.

MinMax wrote:Ogryns have no assault power. They're a tarpit (and not even a very effective tarpit - they'll run away at the drop of a hat) in an army that doesn't want tarpits - Guard need speed-bumps.

They do have assault power, yes they can tarpit, yes they will run away. Please refer to my first flaw which you quoted me on. Please also refer to the inclusion of Yarrick in the army to address this (Or, instead a Commissar Lord at the least ofc).

MinMax wrote:Coupled with that, is the Ogryn's actual inability to HURT what they fight. They bounce off any dedicated close-combat unit, and even struggle to take down a squad of Tactical Marines. I can see no reasonable use for Ogryns.

Now, what exactly are you facing these guys against? They will do very poorly against a drednought if they are assaulted by it, otherwise they shooould be able to rip its arm/s off on the charge turning the fight into a (unwinable) slow ogryn bash.
As for bouncing off a dedicated close-combat unit; Define bounce? What units are you thinking about? They do quite well against some. They do well against tactical squads.

MinMax wrote:Also, Yarrick is way overpriced. He's tough like old jerky, sure, but he doesn't contribute anything to your army that a regular Commissar Lord (already a very casual choice) doesn't already give you for 1/3 the points.

His cost, after a priest & a commissar with a p.fist is 55pts. Is he worth 55pts for what he himself brings to the field (at the cost of putting two eggs in one basket)? Yes, I think its quite fair. Being able to affect ogryns with re-rolls to attack, theres little beside an Ironclad/soulgrinder or beefy MC that would stop them.

You did, actually, comment in the end.

Yea, no.
Yarrick is for fluff, not competitive. Ogryn are not that good at all. Saying they are better than GKT is just silly.

Will that build work in fun games? Yes.
Is it competitive? Not at all.

I like the first list more since its a mechanized force as opposed to a footslogging one. A problem with both lists though is a lack of ranged anti-tank/MEQ firepower.

Mech Ogryns look like a fun army to play especially against Orks.

Run 200pts worth of GKT's vs 200pts worth of Ogryns. Who would win?

I like the first list too, more ogryns and some decent anti-tank firepower. Ogryns will be the anti-meq (and the plasma vets, be sure) its just the ranged anti-tank that'll kill me.

Razerous wrote:As for bouncing off a dedicated close-combat unit; Define bounce? What units are you thinking about? They do quite well against some. They do well against tactical squads.

Tactical Marines are not a dedicated close-combat unit. To make matters worse, Tactical Marines stand a decent chance of beating Ogryns in hand to hand combat.

Imagine 4 Ogryns charging 10x Tactical Marines without close combat gear:

-10 Space Marines attack 12 times (due to Sgt) at I4. 6 hits, 2 wounds, and 1.33 failed saves.
-17 Ogryn attack, causing 8.5 hits, 7.08 wounds, and 2.36 failed saves.

If the Marines pass their LD check (the outcome that the IG player will be hoping for) the Ogryns lose their +1 Strength, and the next round of combat will go like this:

-8.67 marines cause 1.19 failed saves. (2.52 total failed saves inflicted.)
-4 Ogryns cause 1.44 failed saves. (3.8 total failed saves inflicted.)

Note that it's impossible to actually cause 2.52 wounds: If the Marines perform slightly above average in either round, or if the Ogryns did poorly in round 1, then the marines will have inflicted 3 wounds, and will remove a model at Initiative 4, causing the Ogryns to lose 3 attacks. So it's quite possible that the Ogryns will lose combat against Tac Marines in round 2, and will have to test on LD 7. But if we assume that everyone stays engaged, the third round will go like this:

-6.2 Marines cause .91 failed saves. (3.43 total failed saves inflicted.)
-3 Ogryns cause 1.11 wounds (4.91 total failed saves inflicted.)

Once again, we're faced with a round where the Ogrns have the odds on their side, but where there is nevertheless a decent chance that the Marines will win combat, and force the Ogyns to check on LD 7. If the Ogryns lose, they will probably be run down thanks to their Initiative of 2.

SUMMARY: The intersection of the Ogyns terrible Leadership and terrible Initiative means that there is a decent chance that Space Marines will get lucky in a round and wipe out the Ogryns.

More competitive than Tom Cruise with an eye patch.

Dave47 wrote:
Imagine 4 Ogryns charging 10x Tactical Marines without close combat gear: +more, see above.

Ahh fail.

First off; did we forget shooting? Do ogryns have fleet? No. So lets get them to blare off their assault 3 ripper guns!

Second, while 170pts of ogryn may well mirror 170pts of a nacked tactical squad, you would never ever field a squad of tactical marines that way. Likewise, you shouldn't ever field a squad of ogryns (aimed to fight offensively) as such a small squad. A 5man squad (see below) is not an unfair comparison to a rough point-cost of an equipped marine squad.

Thirdly; Lets try that math again, with a 5-strong squad :-

Ogryns fire off 5 ripper guns, hitting 7.5 times, wounding 5.01 marines and killing 1.67.

They then charge. Marines hit (@ I4) with 9 attacks (7 marines & 2 sgt attacks) hitting 4.51 times, wounding 1.51 times and causing one ogryn to take one wound. Perhaps a touch more of that 0.67 marine actually made his save.)

Ogryns smack back with 21 attacks (@ I3), with 10.5 hitting, 8.79 wounding and killing 2.93 marines. Marines may/may not loose more to no-retreat wounds.

So as the dust settles, 4.6 marines are dead in the dirt. One of my ogryns has one wound for its troubles. Second round equates to somthing like; I loose another wound and kill one-two more marines.

Edit: Against assault-marines they would fall to, due to greater number of attacks (2xccw's) and greater mobility (which leads to more attacks/furious charge denial via enemy charge.)
Against Assault-terminators with TH/SS, they would do pretty well all-round. They would have a harder time against lightning claw termies (especially if they got the charge) but without the charge & wound allocation onto the Bone 'ead, pretty much the same result as the TH/SS guys.

SUMMARY: Yarrick was included (for the n'th time) to address the Ogryns extremely poor leadership issues. He wont go away easily, he's no slouch in close-combat either.

Orgyns do well with Yarrik actually i tried them once it was a ton of fun. They get the reroll to hit and are fearless with him. I will suggest for the other squad you take a Commisar Lord with a PF or PW to make the other squad fealess too. Ogryn can beat up almost anything givin the charge and you want to be smart about it. Ogryn are designed to be a tarpit by nature and while they are fairly good in CC they arn't insane. Make sure you do what there designed to and you charge the opponents expensive squads. You tie them up for 3 turns of pain while you have a great chance to win with so many attacks. And meanwhile the rest of the army is doing the real work which is popping the now undefended juicy part of the opponents army. Then if your Ogryns finally do fall your opponent is fighting an uphill battle.

To make list A better I would cut 1 Squad of Ogryn and 2 Chimeras to fit in 2 Vendettas or 1 Vendetta and 1 Valk. Then Get a Commisar lord and just tote around 2 of the Vet squads in those while the rest of the army is mounted in Chimeras.

Razerous wrote:Ahh fail.

Look, it's not that anything you said is untrue. It's just completely irrelevant. Yes, 210 points of Ogryns, backed up by a 185 point special character, can do quite well against 170 points of Tactical Marines. They do even better if we take the Ogyns Ripper Gun shots into account, without taking into account the guns of the Tactical Marines!

Ogryns cost too many points. You can still make a competitive list with them, just as you can show up for a 2,000 point game with an 1,850 point army and still win. But Ogryns are terrible, and the more of them you take, the more points you waste.

Razerous wrote:Ogryns smack back with 21 attacks (@ I3), with 10.5 hitting, 8.79 wounding and killing 2.93 marines. Marines may/may not loose more to no-retreat wounds.

Except Space Marines DO retreat.

Ogryns are great. They are different, but essentially form the same function as a squad of Terminators. Similar point costs, similar function, similar results... different road to get there. Also keep in mind that a squad of 10 space marines is about as much as 5 Ogryns, not 4. (This is also with no upgrades, which basically make the Space Marines significantly less powerful.) They are remarkably good for a number of situations. The only reason why space marines have any chance is because the Ogryns can't take power weapons. If you can manage a power weapon into that squad... it's game over.

Dave47 wrote:

Razerous wrote:Ahh fail.

Look, it's not that anything you said is untrue. It's just completely irrelevant. Yes, 210 points of Ogryns, backed up by a 185 point special character,.

Ah fail mk.2

This is my point. I never mentioned/included the use, for the purposes of pure assault damage, of yarrick against the tactical squad.

A tactical squad can be 170pts (With free flamer and H.B, ML or MM) but it usually has upgrades and such. Granted a rhino is cheaper than a chimera.

I know there isn't much love for Ogryns out there, but I think its foolish to disregard them on rubbish advice.. With the feedback from this thread, I will definitely go with the mech ogryns. Quite possibly with some hydra support instead of the 3rd Ogryn squad. Danke Dakka

Ummm, I have nothing against ogryns personally, because I've never seen them on the table (my regular IG opponent thinks the idea of big ogres running around the battlefields of the future is silly, and frankly I agree with him).

But haven't you (the OP) just ignored all the advice given that disagrees with your pre-held opinion, insulted the people who gave the advice, and said that you like your original idea, and will go ahead with it?

Why did you bother writing this at all?

I-bounty-hunt-the-elderly wrote:Ummm, I have nothing against ogryns personally, because I've never seen them on the table (my regular IG opponent thinks the idea of big ogres running around the battlefields of the future is silly, and frankly I agree with him).

But haven't you (the OP) just ignored all the advice given that disagrees with your pre-held opinion, insulted the people who gave the advice, and said that you like your original idea, and will go ahead with it?

Why did you bother writing this at all?

Nope. I didn't try to insult any one (the only rule-breaking remark perhaps was the fail remark - But indeed those posts were quite fail) and from the feedback I've decided to go with the 1st of two ideas but with changes to the original plan. But then why did you bother to flame? Im grateful for all the other feedback I've gotten here.

Razerous wrote:I know there isn't much love for Ogryns out there, but I think its foolish to disregard them on rubbish advice..

Rubbish advice? You're about to field a 1,500 point list based around six Chimeras. You have no long range shooting, and you only have one power weapon in your close-combat based army. You have no fast vehicles. Every army you face will either out shoot you, out assault you, or outmaneuver you (by either neutralizing your most dangerous transports, or just moving faster than you can). Most good tournament lists will be able to do all three. This is a terrible army list, and it will only win against novice players.

i was furious when i learned lord commissars and yarrick dont have any orders at all :[

6x Ogryns
+Chimera
+HHF = 305

versus

10x tactical marines
rhino
ML
Flamer
Powerfist = 230


The tactical squad will win this battle - even @ a 75 point disadvantage. The ML has a 18.5% chance per turn to stop the chimera. You have no ranged weapons, so the marine player will try to outrange you at first, meaning you are starting 48" away from the tactical squad. The tactical squad will be able to keep you at arms length until the chimera goes down. At which point you will be helpless as you footslog until you reach double tap range (24" ) from inside the rhino. If you get too close ( <18" ), you get hit hard by the flamer too.

If the chimera happens to not go down, and you move into a range that you can assault from (12" ), then you are also in range for the the marines to get out and assault. They can surround the tank and block exits, so that you have to at least move and then be unable to assault out of the transport. Either that or the destroy the transport and annihilate the unit inside.

Ogryns are just too costly for their returns - which are minimal at best. While their cost is comparable to terminators, their effectiveness is not.

Don't be upset when people tell you how bad they are, because this advice is not unfounded.

Dracos wrote:
The ML has a 18.5% chance per turn to stop the chimera. You have no ranged weapons, so the marine player will try to outrange you at first, meaning you are starting 48" away from the tactical squad. The tactical squad will be able to keep you at arms length until the chimera goes down. At which point you will be helpless as you footslog until you reach double tap range (24" ) from inside the rhino. If you get too close ( <18" ), you get hit hard by the flamer too.

I'm curious how you obviously manage to start with a 48" advantage on a 4'x6' board, how you maintained that distance easily on that surface while moving at half the speed of the approaching chimera, and how a handful of missiles with less than a 1/5th chance to significantly damage the chimera means you're going to stop it in it's tracks before it gets to you.

Ogryns can't take power weapons and won't do well against a sizable number of opponents, we get it. There's no need to create completely improbable situations to prove your point.

edit: I take it back, SM missile launchers are heavy. So it's far worse, unless you can mount one on the rhino.
And I think that 18.5% is a tad high, unless my napkin math is wrong (it could be).

Ah, this old argument. Every test I've casually done has put GKTs on top of Ogryn for equal points, excluding their Rippers.

There is a 5 point difference between 6 ogryn and 5 GKTs, something I consider negligible.

The terminators hit on 3+. Wound on 3+. Saved against on... well, not saved against.
One wound has a .666 * .666 = 44.4% chance of landing.
You're getting 11 attacks not on the charge.
That's 4.884 wounds getting through, which is enough to drop one Ogryn, were it not for the fact that you allocated two of those wounds to the bone 'ead.

Ogryn hit on 4+. They wound on 3+. Saved against on 2+.
One wound has a .5 * .666 * .166 = 5.5% chance of landing.
You're getting 19 attacks NOT on the charge.
That's 1.05 kills first round.

Assuming Ogryn get the charge it could be a very much different story what with the 99.5% chance that they would get a kill with their guns and then the furious charge would tilt things in their favor somewhat.
A +1 S would give them 6.9% chance of wounding per hit instead of the 5.5% they had previously, which is 1.3 kills on the first round. Still not reassuring, though if they managed to land that second kill, it would be devastating toward the GKT.

Thats why I wouldn't ever face Ogryn against something like GKT or Wraithlords, or some horrible attack monstrosity.

I still think that Ogryn are useful though. They need to stop being looked at as some sort of anti-melee specialized force.

My Rule #1: IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO MAKE IG _GOOD_ AT MELEE. End of story.

What they need to be looked at is a hard to kill, rush at everything that ISN'T melee specialized force. Also, not that there is much that has it, but something else to think about is the fact that Ogryns instakill T3 on the charge. Their weaknesses are major (no power weapons, no way to get invul saves), but you can do some fun stuff with them all the same.
Say I have a priest with eviscerator, Yarrick, and 5 Ogryns in a Chimera. They charge out and start attacking. Granted that's about 500 points right there, but that's 500 points that goes wherever it wants. Once it gets into assault, do you attack the guy with the eviscerator and the invul save, the guy with the power klaw and the invul save, or the giant squad of ogryn that are pummeling you meanwhile?

Also, who expects this when they know they're going to face the Guard? I think it would stand up better than expected tactically because of the fact that no one would see it coming.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Having all the above been said, I think you're putting too much faith on the Ogryns.

Between the two lists you propose, I think I prefer the second one, though I don't really care for Penal Legion Squads.

Something I think I'm going to run next time we play 1500 points:

Yarrick & Chimera with HF
Priest with Eviscerator
5 x Ogryn
5 x Storm troopers with 2 Meltas
Vets with 3 meltas in chimera
vets with 3 plasma in chimera (don't ask)
Hellhound
Hellhound
LRBT
LRBT

I have the crazy charge group cruising around in Yarrick's wheels.
I have plenty of anti horde, plenty of anti MEQ and plenty of anti vehicle.

Gorkamorka wrote:
I'm curious how you obviously manage to start with a 48" advantage on a 4'x6' board, how you maintained that distance easily on that surface while moving at half the speed of the approaching chimera, and how a handful of missiles with less than a 1/5th chance to significantly damage the chimera means you're going to stop it in it's tracks before it gets to you.

Ogryns can't take power weapons and won't do well against a sizable number of opponents, we get it. There's no need to create completely improbable situations to prove your point.

edit: I take it back, SM missile launchers are heavy. So it's far worse, unless you can mount one on the rhino.
And I think that 18.5% is a tad high, unless my napkin math is wrong (it could be).

18.5% chance is accurate, including results 2, 4, 5 and 6 on the damage table (accounting for glances).

a 4' x 6' table is 48" by 72". Its pretty easy to deploy 48" away on a table that has a length of 86.533" diagonally across. This will give the turns necessary to get in a stun result to buy more turns, or the destroyed result you are looking for. And yes, the rhino is stationary during this time. Thats okay though, he can have 2-3 turns of free shooting while you drive up.

You are correct, this is a highly contrived scenario intended to depict how the more costly unit is tactically outclassed by perhaps one of the most common units in the game.
This alone is enough to make Ogryns an unwise choice.

Ogryns can perform well in certain situations, but their point cost demand that you create these situations for them in order to earn their points back. Heavy investment for minimal return means Ogryns are a non-competitive (serious) choice.

Dracos wrote:
a 4' x 6' table is 48" by 72". Its pretty easy to deploy 48" away on a table that has a length of 86.533" diagonally across.

In a standard pitched deployment where the Ogryn player takes the center of the board you can't make 48" even placed sideways in your corners, and you're completely out of options for running further away. DOW makes this even easier.
Spearhead is the only case where you could barely get 48" on an intelligently deployed opponent, also prevents running away, and I don't think a 1/3rd chance for that qualifies as 'pretty easy'.

The missile launchers are still heavy and prevent movement to 'keep the chimera at arms length' regardless, unless the SM have a rule I'm unfamiliar with or can mount them on the rhino (entirely possible, but still limiting them to half speed).
2 is not a meaningful damage result, as it uses a SM turn to stall the chimera for a turn and just extends the exercise.

Dracos wrote:
You are correct, this is a highly contrived scenario intended to depict how the more costly unit is tactically outclassed by perhaps one of the most common units in the game.

They're hardly 'tactically outclassed' if the tactic they used was impossible to pull off.

Gorkamorka wrote:2 is not a meaningful damage result, as it uses a SM turn to stall the chimera for a turn and just extends the exercise.

Not even that with the addition of extra armor; an upgrade I would seriously consider for a strategy as dependent on constant movement as this one. Also, by the same token, the Chimera has enough of a shot on the front armor of the Rhino to be able to cancel out it's ability to move/shoot.

A proper mechanized army list will blow up your melta squads/devil dogs before they can do anything (2 units are not a reliable answer to 5-6 vehicles on the table) and spend the rest of the game laughing at your inability to dismount him with your puny S5 melee attacks and AP - guns.

Foot lists will just break you in combat when you get there. You're not making any successful retreats with I2

Your army has a consistent theme:

Overpriced, tough (but not that tough) and not killy at all. Yes, ogryns can beat tactical marines, but who the hell can't? Isn't that what this game is based around? Killing dudes with T4 and 3+ saves? Well grats. For 40 points a pop you're just stunningly average, how do you feel about that?

Your 445 point character and squad roll over 170 points of marines in one turn, and then they fall back. Vindicator says what's up. Hope you rolled high on your consolidation (no, your I2 squad probably didn't catch the I4 marines), else you're toast.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I should also add that you seem to be basing your army on the assumption that you'll be getting the charge - that's not going to happen. You can't charge out of chimeras, which means you'll be chilling outside of your armor 12 protection for a full turn of shooting before you can actually get into CC. Smart players aren't going to just ignore that and believe it or not, T5 and a 5+ save really isn't that hard to put down.

Also, try to disembark a 5 man 40mm base squad in a legal pattern from one access point in a formation that doesn't say "please template me!"

It's not possible.

Gorkamorka wrote:In a standard pitched deployment where the Ogryn player takes the center of the board you can't make 48" even placed sideways in your corners, and you're completely out of options for running further away. DOW makes this even easier.
Spearhead is the only case where you could barely get 48" on an intelligently deployed opponent, also prevents running away, and I don't think a 1/3rd chance for that qualifies as 'pretty easy'.

Pitched battle you can deploy 12" in from your long table edge. If you go in the middle, the corner of the board ~43" away from you. Dawn of war puts the corner 34" away from the center deployment. Irregardless of the mission, you are looking @ 2-4 turns worth of shooting before you can even do anything about it.

Gorkamorka wrote:
2 is not a meaningful damage result, as it uses a SM turn to stall the chimera for a turn and just extends the exercise.

The stun result is absolutely relevant. It buys another turn to get a better result and destroy the vehicle without fear of reprisal.

Again, I said the rhino would be stationary. But through the long range it has a good chance of destroying the chimera before it gets in close.

Erm.. I apologise for my ignorance, but what stats do the GKT's have?

As for rubbish advice, again I apologise, I only meant inaccurate advice or badly biased advice.

Dracos wrote:
Pitched battle you can deploy 12" in from your long table edge. If you go in the middle, the corner of the board ~43" away from you. Dawn of war puts the corner 34" away from the center deployment.

So... you're saying you can't get 48" (especially not with a ~6" tank) which you claimed was easy?

Dracos wrote:
The stun result is absolutely relevant. It buys another turn to get a better result and destroy the vehicle without fear of reprisal.

How is it relevant in this exercise of yours at all?
The marines spend a turn for a result that doesn't stop the chimera, the chimera spends a turn not moving.
Tada, nothing meaningful has happened. The exercise continues in exactly the same way as if the turn had been skipped.
You've got ~3 shots at under 1/6th chance to stop the tank. Those odds aren't in your favor.

I'll agree that this is pointless as they've got a good chance to lose when they get there anyway, but your example was not an honest portrayal.