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I know markedly little about the whole of this issue, but I am simply not buying what many people are trying to endorse. Namely, the economy is actually recovering, versus us heading the exact same direction we were before.

Let my lack of knowledge, be the grounds for this discussion. Inform me.

Thanks.

I guess it really depends on how high and broad the bubble inbetween dips gets, doesn't it?

It just popped up that the Democratic economist advising Congress or certain members came out with the belief that unemployment would be at 10.8% in October. you can't have double dip if you don't come out of the first recession.

All the talk of additional fees, additional taxes, additional environmental regulations, additional health care costs, uncertainty uncertainty uncertainty. Yea the chances are not low.

I do not see the unemployment rate turning around wholesale anytime soon. This is because the number of corporate restructurings that occurred they were about to cut down to a point where the profit margins that the investors are happy again. There will be some rehiring that will occur but not enough to drag the unemployment rate below 8%.

Unless there is an economic incentive for company to bring manufacturing back the United States and Europe and away for the low cost African and Asian countries you will not see the bounce back that we need. The growth in numbers that everyone is saying is signs of a recovery are artificial in nature. When a government starts to pass out free money people will be more than willing to spend that money. Look at the "Cash for Clunkers" program. For how that program lasted there was a short term bump in car sales. However, what happened when there was no free money anymore people went back to hording their money.

This might sound cold but our country has grown too large of a population too fast for the economy to keep up. When you add in the illegal immigrants drawing upon resources on top of the 300 million so citizens to draw is too much and you get what just happened to the economy.

More and more people begin to live upon credit for too long where it becomes part of their economic lives that they can't live without it. When so much credit is out there and the market must design new forms of credit (i.e. sub-prime mortgages) to keep up the bubble will burst from the weight.

I need to step off the soap box and I will just say that it is not a double-dip. The rises are artificial and not part of the recovery no matter how much the news media wants you to believe the recovery is around the next corner.

So, over the course of this presidential term, can anyone hope to see substantial recovery?

I seriously worry that not enough has been done (I mean what in the feth HAS been done?) to stop the cause of this major problem, from dragging all of us further down.

Wrexasaur wrote:So, over the course of this presidential term, can anyone hope to see substantial recovery?

I seriously worry that not enough has been done (I mean what in the feth HAS been done?) to stop the cause of this major problem, from dragging all of us further down.

Don't worry, China is recovering nicely. Oh wait we're not in China. Yea, we're boned.

From what little I know, it sounds like the U.K. is the one to be taking the major hit due to all of this.

GO CHINA!!!

Wait...

I am just off to get a cup of coffee.

Meh.

In my town a new Icelands is opening where WoolWorths used to be. There are twenty-four part time jobs going ... six hundred people have applied..

No sustainable recovery until all the debt is accounted for and off the books. Sure, there's government debt owned by the public, but the majority of debt in the US is in private hands. No amount of cheap credit is going to help people and institutions that cannot take on additional debt. Without income, people can't take on more debt and without people buying, business can't take on more debt.

I believe there are several factors that will keep the employment numbers low which means more a non-recovering economy rather than a double dip recession.

I was paying off debt when credit was so cheap is was foolish to do so. Now that I am debt free, I'm not making enough interest on my savings to keep up with COLAs. It really does seem to be a rigged system.

If the economy is "recovering" it certianly isn't showing where I live and work.
unemployement is through the roof,business are closing and the "average joes" I,ve spoken with all claim to be having a tough go of things.
In the shop where I work,their have been numerous lay offs and business is way down,even though we cater to the "upper class and super rich.",it seems they don't have the money to spend either.

Frazzled wrote:
Don't worry, China is recovering nicely. Oh wait we're not in China. Yea, we're boned.

Many people believe that China is in a very, very large Dubai bubble.

Frazzled wrote:It just popped up that the Democratic economist advising Congress or certain members came out with the belief that unemployment would be at 10.8% in October. you can't have double dip if you don't come out of the first recession.

All the talk of additional fees, additional taxes, additional environmental regulations, additional health care costs, uncertainty uncertainty uncertainty. Yea the chances are not low.

Thats what happens when you don't do all that necessary gak and run the economy into the ground and cause a global recession with utter BS deregulatory faux gak-philosophy. It gets done at the bottom level, when there is an actual concerted effort to change because people stop believing the "low tax, no regulation" guys know what they are talking about. Because, y'know, they know how to make a lot of money, and destroy an economy doing it.

The economy will start a 2010 turnaround which will be realized in 2011, job recovery won't truly begin until 2012 at the earliest. Welcome to rebuilding the economy, it takes a while when you don't just chase bubbles.

There really is no point in chasing Bubbles... when Bubbles is busy chasing liquor and whores...

It looks like we are in the middle of a fairly deep long recession. Last year this time things were worse though but it's not like the economy is in the midst of turning around now. I think we'll all know when things really start to turn back around.

G

Green Blow Fly wrote:It looks like we are in the middle of a fairly deep long recession. Last year this time things were worse though but it's not like the economy is in the midst of turning around now. I think we'll all know when things really start to turn back around.

G

The thing is, it has in segments. The economy isn't one single thing. Wall street and most major corporations have returned to gains and profitability already, but you need the purchase engine to start back up before you will see the increased demand that will generate new jobs. It will likely continue to recover in piecemeal fashion for quite a while before unemployment begins to drop precipitously.

Most non-finance corporations are profitable simply because they slashed their costs (IOW employees). They can't do that and remain profitable for long. They'll need to sell products or services to be profitable.

Those companies and industries that have gov't support are the real long term winners. Right now that's the finance and insurance industry and to a lesser extent, military contractors. I'm not including the domestic auto industry because I don't think any amount of money will turn around those companies. The government loans there were to prevent millions of additional job losses in the short run.

Just to verify what others have said, jobs are almost always a lagging indicator. Unemployment improves AFTER companies return to growth...and specifically a level of growth that requires them to upstaff. Since the economy is growing but only slowly, you haven't seen the a major uptick in jobs. FWIW, I think I recently read studies saying temp jobs are increasing, and that's often a precursor to permanent jobs picking up six months or so down the line.

Also FWIW, I can say I've been having headhunters contact me lately, which is something that wasn't happening AT ALL six months ago. YMMV.

Regarding a double-dip recession, that would technically mean we returned to negative GDP growth for at least six months. Because you don't know officially know this until you collect past data and analyze it, it's always possible we've currently slipped into a double-dip. But I don't think there are any analysts calling that a likelihood based on all the other data they're seeing and collecting. The economy is recovering, but slowly.

I often hear people criticize the media for saying we're out of the recession when they still see and experience the impact of a slow economy. The disconnect comes in because the media's using specific criteria for "recession" and not just using the word to mean "slow economy" like many people do.

Interesting note here. The Fed has posted a record profit, mainly collecting interest on the bank-loans and bailouts. Queue the spin machine up, USA! USA!
Personally I am very apprehensive about this. With all of this "interest" money, and the blank checks written over the past 2 years, within the next 2 years I can see inflation hitting us like a mother. The "recovery" is based on worthless money since there's no actual goods or services being provided or created to back it up. It seems like it's just the same trading of debt and interest that got us into this, albeit the debt is a little "safer."

Which puts the Fed in a tricky spot. They can tamp down inflation by hiking rates, but that will tend to slow an economy that isn't exactly roaring along.

While jobs are a lagging indicator, GNP isn't and all the growth has been attributed to the stimulus, not outside of it.