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Night Lords wrote:

No, its actually a 99.31% chance youll pass. Its 92% without chaos glory. Then another 92% chance again.

Okay I'll run the actual numbers. They go down fast when you are losing combat:

Probability on successive trials goes like this: They're not completely independent because you only make the second roll if you fail the first. You get the percentage of times you'll pass on the first attempt, plus the same percentage of the times you fail on the second attempt. So, for example, rerolling a 4+ save is 75% success: 50% of the time you make the first try, and you make 50% of the failures on the second try (i.e. 25% more) for a total of 75%

So for a CSM unit with Ld 10 and icon of chaos glory the chance of success is:
Base chance = ~99%
Lose combat by 1 = ~97%
Lose by 2 = ~92%
Lose by 3 = ~82%
Lose by 4 = ~66%
Lose by 5 = ~48%

And craters after that.

The chance of success for a fearless unit? 100% in every case. Losing by up to 6, you're looking at 1 or 2 additional casualties on average.

Night Lords wrote:
Its a different playstyle, sure. However, enhanced marines for 3 points each add up and are a waste of points when i can simply buy another unit with IoCG for the same cost. More wounds, shooting, attacks, and scoring, all while theyre basically fearless anyways.

Again, this is the main point of my original post. The "more models is always better" argument overlooks the point that fearlessness is *qualitatively* different from non-fearlessness in an assault-based army. Having ten times as many marines is not going to help if they get wiped out or fall back off the board--at least not for those of us who have dice luck that corresponds to real-world probabilities.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

whitedragon wrote:
You also have to throw in the points for bile spread across your whole army, because he's pretty useless by himself as opposed to some of the other chaos HQ's.

I wouldn't go so far as to say he's useless, WD. True he's not the HtH monster that most chaos SCs are, but in my experience he's actually better than you would think as a character assassin and weedwhacker with 7 attacks on the charge at str5 and any one failed armor save causing instant death. He's also really durable with base T5 and FNP.

But yeah, he does add to the cost per unit of the enhanced marines. I'd say he's borderline at 1500 points and not worth it below that.

Flavius Infernus wrote:
I wouldn't go so far as to say he's useless, WD. True he's not the HtH monster that most chaos SCs are, but in my experience he's actually better than you would think as a character assassin and weedwhacker with 7 attacks on the charge at str5 and any one failed armor save causing instant death. He's also really durable with base T5 and FNP.

But yeah, he does add to the cost per unit of the enhanced marines. I'd say he's borderline at 1500 points and not worth it below that.

He also sucks up one of your HQ slots that you could use for a lash prince, or sorcerer, or what have you. If you are doing an army based around enhanced marines, you want to get them into favorably combats. (I like fabius and I'm going to be working him in for my "World Eaters" at some point, but I'm just pointing out that he takes up a valuable HQ slot.)

It's possible to get Enhanced Marines into favorable combats without using the Lash of Submission.

Nurglitch wrote:It's possible to get Enhanced Marines into favorable combats without using the Lash of Submission.

Waht are those things called? Rh.. Rhi-something...

Flavius Infernus wrote:

Okay I'll run the actual numbers. They go down fast when you are losing combat:

Probability on successive trials goes like this: They're not completely independent because you only make the second roll if you fail the first. You get the percentage of times you'll pass on the first attempt, plus the same percentage of the times you fail on the second attempt. So, for example, rerolling a 4+ save is 75% success: 50% of the time you make the first try, and you make 50% of the failures on the second try (i.e. 25% more) for a total of 75%

So for a CSM unit with Ld 10 and icon of chaos glory the chance of success is:
Base chance = ~99%
Lose combat by 1 = ~97%
Lose by 2 = ~92%
Lose by 3 = ~82%
Lose by 4 = ~66%
Lose by 5 = ~48%

And craters after that.

The chance of success for a fearless unit? 100% in every case. Losing by up to 6, you're looking at 1 or 2 additional casualties on average.

So if theyre getting shot at, theyre fearless, so when I sit on an objective theyre not going to run off the board. If they lose combat by enough to make it significant enough (ie. you were dumb enough to let your basic troops get caught by something big), it doesnt really matter because you get wiped out or run away and can shoot the enemy, and charge anyways.

You talk as if the fearless units are going to do anything other than keep you from shooting. People want you to stay in combat for an extra turn until they slaughter you. If you lose by 5 (to have the odds against you with IoCG), that means at the least youre losing 6 guys. I dont know what list you run, but when I see peoples' lists, units such as plagues are usually in a squad of 7. Max 10. So youre going to probably lose that unit next turn anyways, where your opponent can move and assault another unit nearby.

Also, If I remember correctly, the events are independant because when you roll dice, you dont take that value out for the next roll. They have no effect on each other. Though I think your numbers are close, if rounded down.

Hey, are we taking into account the likelihood of Chaos Space Marines getting run down in a Sweeping Advance?

It seems to me that Fearless is merely quantitatively different from normal Leadership, since Fearless passes all Morale and Pinning tests, while normal Leadership only passes some. Moreover, in the case of lost combats, while Fearless always passes the Morale check, they may still sustain a number of casualties, just like normal Leadership may fail the Morale check, but may not sustain further casualties upon a successful withdrawal.

It seems to me then that Fearless is good when a unit has a good Sv or Iv, and its opponent cannot effectively cause casualties. Otherwise, Fearless is bad if the unit has poor Sv or Iv, and its opponent can effectively cause casualties: Plague Marines in combat with a Carnifex or Dreadnought are going to be stuck there for the enemy to pound on, unlike Chaos Space Marines who could Fall Back.

Also, if you want a unit to pin other units in combat, go for Chaos Dreadnoughts or Defilers: Walkers don't suffer from No Retreat!

Putting it in those terms make the "being stuck-in" seem like more of a tactical option. It will sometimes be advantageous to get the guy out in the open to counter-blast him next turn and sometimes better to tar pit him with a fearless unit. Kind of a nihilistic approach though :(

An amusing tale: I have 7 CSM with an Icon of Slaanesh charging a unit of 2 Plaguebearers. Nothing happens in that combat. Next turn a Soulgrinder joins the festivities, killing a couple marines. I had wiffed completely on my attacks. I fail morale, roll a 1 to get away and he rolls a 6, and, lo and behold, my Slaaneshi marines are run down by 2 Plaguebearers.

Night Lords wrote:Also, If I remember correctly, the events are independant because when you roll dice, you dont take that value out for the next roll. They have no effect on each other. Though I think your numbers are close, if rounded down.

But, they aren't independant, because, well you don't roll the dice again a second time if you pass the test for IoCG, but if you fail, you do, so the second roll is dependant on whether you fail the first.

Night Lords wrote:
So if theyre getting shot at, theyre fearless, so when I sit on an objective theyre not going to run off the board.

I think you're missing some basic math here, NL. 99 < 100 and IoCG does not make a unit "fearless". If there's a psyker battle squad, a culexus assassin, a psychic choir or certain Witchhunter units in the area, the fearless units are still 100% while non-fearless units become increasingly likely to run off.

And I don't think you get the rerolls on pin checks, right? Or on pin checks when your rhino explodes?

Night Lords wrote:
If they lose combat by enough to make it significant enough (ie. you were dumb enough to let your basic troops get caught by something big), it doesnt really matter because you get wiped out or run away and can shoot the enemy, and charge anyways.

Yeah, when I play my Eldar army in fun pickup games, I like zooming around the board playing grab-ass as much as the next guy.

But when I play chaos, usually in a tournament, I'm looking at having the massacre in place by turn 4 at the latest. So for chaos that means grabbing ahold of units and beating the crap out of them as efficiently as possible. Losing combats, running off, shooting, letting them have cover saves, trying to get back in (assuming you didn't die) takes too long. I'd rather just wipe things out in assault.

Night Lords wrote:You talk as if the fearless units are going to do anything other than keep you from shooting. People want you to stay in combat for an extra turn until they slaughter you. If you lose by 5 (to have the odds against you with IoCG), that means at the least youre losing 6 guys. I dont know what list you run, but when I see peoples' lists, units such as plagues are usually in a squad of 7. Max 10. So youre going to probably lose that unit next turn anyways, where your opponent can move and assault another unit nearby.

You're acting like every assault scrum is a polite combat between just two units, forgetting multiple combats, which is where you really score the big wins. One unit can lose 5 guys, and then every unit in that combat is at -5 even if they haven't lost a single model.

Anyway I'm not sure if you noticed when I said *my chaos armies don't shoot.* Except for the necessary transport popping, they're either moving flat-out to get into HtH or they're in HtH.

I'm interested to see this magical land where a CSM army is able to avoid ever getting into an unfavorable combat. It doesn't sound like any 40K game I've ever seen.

Flavius Infernus wrote:

I think you're missing some basic math here, NL. 99 < 100 and IoCG does not make a unit "fearless". If there's a psyker battle squad, a culexus assassin, a psychic choir or certain Witchhunter units in the area, the fearless units are still 100% while non-fearless units become increasingly likely to run off.

Forgot Dark Eldar.

whitedragon wrote:

Night Lords wrote:Also, If I remember correctly, the events are independant because when you roll dice, you dont take that value out for the next roll. They have no effect on each other. Though I think your numbers are close, if rounded down.

But, they aren't independant, because, well you don't roll the dice again a second time if you pass the test for IoCG, but if you fail, you do, so the second roll is dependant on whether you fail the first.

In probability terms, they are indeed independent. It means that the odds do not change based on the previous roll.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

Flavius Infernus wrote:<Snip>

There are advantages to being fearless, yes, thats why it's a rule. However, the nature of chaos (ie. good CC on basic units, Ld10, IoCG) means its not necessary at all. You are paying 3 points more for basic marines because youre worried about the 0.6% chance theyre going to run, and you actually want to talk about tourneys and the lists associated with it? Talk about a waste of points. Far worse than the small chance youre going to run away.

So no, if you get caught by something thats actually going to make you run, you F'd up, and it doesnt matter if your unit is fearless or not. You are going to lose that unit, except the only thing about Fearless units is that they wont get wiped out until the next turn, preventing you from shooting and allowing your opponent to assault again.

And Im sorry, but your multi assault point is laughable - you have 3 squads of say 10 marines in an assault and youre losing combat by 5?? You SERIOUSLY F'd up to not have 54 attacks and 6 powerfists do enough damage to atleast tie.

So no, fearless is not good with marines, because they can hold their own in combat, and in the rare case you cant, you dont want them in there anyways.

To be fair, you don't just get Fearless on Enhanced Warriors, you also get a Strength bonus as well.

In line with the str bonus, you also have the chance for the uber str bonus and be able to relive the good old days of Chaos Str 10 powerfists.

How I miss daemonic str and furious charge coupled on a master crafted powerfist with daemonic mutation and SPIKY BITZ!

My 7 Cents.