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So if it's an 8% fail rate on the Leadership tests for Psychic powers and the Manifestation rule, then:

92% of the time Mephiston will make it into combat with the C'tan. 85% of that time Mephiston will have cast one psychic power successfully. 78% of that time Mephiston will have cast two psychic powers. 72% of that time Mephiston will have cast three psychic powers.

Of course, if he were under the influence of the Soulless rule at the time, then he would be much less likely to do any of these things.

Pariahs are pretty uncommon in necron lists; but then again so is the Nightbringer. In that case kill them first (Mephiston can do that easily too).
@those parties who seem confused about this, the c'tan, much like certain wargear elements they inspired such as the phase sword and warsycthe, do not allow saves of any kind. Its pretty explicit about that under the general rules for the c'tan near where they cite the immunity to wraithcannon ID (Don't have it on me).

As we already said though, Mephiston need not be worried

yeah, the things o'l Meph needs to worry about are loads of AP1-2 ranged weapons and lots of close combat attacks.

(though with WS6 and T6 even ork boyz will have a hard time getting enough wounds to worry him)

a GKGM could face Meph on equal terms and potentially ID him and not be struck in return.

Yeah but against a GKCM it ends up coming down to first person to take a wound and fail his psy hood. (This is assumeing that your pyschic hood can nulify a force weapon check, don't have a book in front of me to verify that.

yes a psychic hood can stop a force weapon.

and you assume the GM doesn't have a retinue, which all GK players should run, which means mepheston will have to kill 3-4 terminators BEFORE hitting the GM who will likely have a hood and a 4+ invuln.

Meph would never charge into that if I were playing him so.

sourclams wrote:

Surtur wrote:3 out of 36 isn't 15%...

Remember you're rolling 2 dice so it's more of a graph than just 11 and 12 are fails. It's if you roll 6 and 6, or 5 and 6, or 6 and 5 that he fails. That's 3 possibilities of 36, so it's closer to 8% fail rate. This is of course ignoring double 1s results.

You have to account for two powers; Sanguine Sword for S10 and Force Weapon for instant death. The pass rate on 2 psychic tests at Ld10 is 84%, or just about double the 8% fail rate for any one power.

I see. I was just thinking of the force weapon itself. But having a cumulative 84% pass for multiple powers doesn't really illustrate whether or not he will kill him. It just means that one power didn't work out. It becomes an "if this, then that" sort of thing. It would be more accurate to figure out the odds of killing nightbringer from if he passed his S10 power and another set from if he failed to use it.

@ Grey Templar, I'm leaving open the possibility that the double 1s may kill him which opens up it's own worm can.

At a rough guesstimate, I would say Meph has about a 60% chance to kill Nighbringer on the charge. What hasn't been brought up here is if that's a wise move. I don't think so, I'd rather use Meph on other targets and focus on phase out. Voluntarily going into combat with an opposing CC menace with that percentage of your force is not a good idea, in my opinion. What ever happened to the "shoot the assaulty ones" rule of thumb?

Well, the issue with the Nightbringer (or Deceiver, for that matter) is that he acts as a simultaneous hammer & shield for the Necron army. He can intercept incoming enemy units which are otherwise deadly to other Necron units, both protecting the rest of the army and killing stuff dead.

If you have a unit capable of taking on the Nightbringer head to head, you can make other assaults with the rest of your army against the rest of the Necron force nearby to the Nightbringer, without fear of a counterassault from NB.