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Psyker_9er wrote:Luck, Magic, Jedi Mind Tricks, Juju, Mojo, Voodoo, Energy, Warp Powers... That is what phase 1 of this project is about, trying to locate and put a name to this force that has been elusive for far too long. If we want to have Psyker powers and fight against Warp Beasts in the year 40,000 we had better start figuring this stuff out now.

You really need to consider the possibility that it is elusive because it might not exist. There is also the possibility that it is elusive because that is the nature of it, once known it ceases to be and all that.

Both of those are much, much more likely than the odds that you'll be able to isolate and verify this magic thing you're talking about.

Right right.... The random elements are more or less what we are trying to remove in a sense. If we discover this common energy/force/luck/magic and randomness will be almost entirely out of the picture. We wouldn't have to predict what the dice will roll exactly, we would simply be able change the energies surrounding those dice to better fit our needs. (With out the use of loaded cheating dice)

You're welcome to believe all of that if you want, but you shouldn't take it for granted that anyone does.

Bad dice need to be properly trained.
Line them all up on the cement.
Pull every 10th die out, and in front of the rest, smash it with a hammer.

That will teach them to fail back to back Ld10 tests (with re-rolls).


I would say that as a population, everything averages out. But I also believe that some people are going to be toward one end of the bell curve, while others are at the other end. So as a population, we average out.

Since I believe that lucky people are influenced by the need of an outcome, you wouldn't be able to easily test this in a lab.

Additionally, I believe that people may influence the luck of those around them.


Read a few books on physicists who have gone crazy while researching the nature of the world and you'll get an igea of what I am talking about.

-Matt

HawaiiMatt wrote:I would say that as a population, everything averages out. But I also believe that some people are going to be toward one end of the bell curve, while others are at the other end. So as a population, we average out.

Since I believe that lucky people are influenced by the need of an outcome, you wouldn't be able to easily test this in a lab.

Additionally, I believe that people may influence the luck of those around them.

Are you saying that one person is more likely to roll a 4+ than another person?

sebster wrote:You really need to consider the possibility that it is elusive because it might not exist. There is also the possibility that it is elusive because that is the nature of it, once known it ceases to be and all that.
Both of those are much, much more likely than the odds that you'll be able to isolate and verify this magic thing you're talking about...
...
You're welcome to believe all of that if you want, but you shouldn't take it for granted that anyone does.

You do make good points, and I have thought of that, but I would rather go to the grave trying to find it for myself than blindly believe some one else who says it is not there. I am not referring to you personally Sebster, you are doing a well balanced job of both nay-saying and still being motivational at the same time. I am more referring to the people who died hundreds of years ago but are having their words taken as gospel today.

As for taking things for granted, I merely opened this thread for people to help out if they choose. If they believe in this or not, their input is still welcome. This is all still a theoretical debate at this time, after all, we would need advanced computerized machines to measure out any atom sized flux of energy, or "midichlorians" for another Star Wars use the Force reference.

It maybe that simple binary code reference I mentioned earlier. Your luck can be turned on one moment, and gone the next. Or even switched off when someone else's luck over powers yours momentarily. So if we gather enough info, we might be able to help pin down what to look for to keep your luck turned on.

One example of something lucky I do: I assign dice to a character. My Eldar Death Jester has three shots with his gun so I use the same three green dice for him and only him. Nothing else gets rolled with those dice except for things that involve the Death Jester directly. I keep a lot of dice needless to say, but I don't let other people use my dice and get their tainted mojo on them either. I have a separate group of dice that I consider "neutrally" charged, those I loan out to other players or use when ever I need more dice than what is assigned to a particular model. In this way, I try to consider the dice almost like a battery that I charge with positive energy directed towards an event that involves a particular figurine. The figurine itself is charged with positive energy while I put love and care into the painting and sculpting. This helps me to focus the energy directly to where and when I want it.

sebster wrote:

HawaiiMatt wrote:I would say that as a population, everything averages out. But I also believe that some people are going to be toward one end of the bell curve, while others are at the other end. So as a population, we average out.

Since I believe that lucky people are influenced by the need of an outcome, you wouldn't be able to easily test this in a lab.

Additionally, I believe that people may influence the luck of those around them.

Are you saying that one person is more likely to roll a 4+ than another person?

No, I'm saying that Jason is crazy lucky and rolled a "6's" like mad for his trukk saves (back when they saved on a "6").
Ronn on the other hand, will roll a fist full of 1's for his terminator saves, followed by box cars for the break tests.

Give them both dice, and tell them to roll 12,000 times, I'll bet each produces ~2,000 of each number.
But give them a setting where the outcome of those dice matter, and some people will have their results skewed one way, while others another.
This is luck my definition of luck.


Before you spout math at me, let me ask you, what are the assumption of truth in probability and statistics?


-Matt

HawaiiMatt wrote:Give them both dice, and tell them to roll 12,000 times, I'll bet each produces ~2,000 of each number.
But give them a setting where the outcome of those dice matter, and some people will have their results skewed one way, while others another.
This is luck my definition of luck.

Fair enough.

Before you spout math at me, let me ask you, what are the assumption of truth in probability and statistics?

My assumption begins and ends with the idea that human created meaning doesn't impact the spinning of small plastic cubes.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Psyker_9er wrote:You do make good points, and I have thought of that, but I would rather go to the grave trying to find it for myself than blindly believe some one else who says it is not there. I am not referring to you personally Sebster, you are doing a well balanced job of both nay-saying and still being motivational at the same time. I am more referring to the people who died hundreds of years ago but are having their words taken as gospel today.

Fair enough. Good luck in your endeavours. If you aren't familiar with probability I'd advise you to read up, as a lot of things can look non-random when they are actually predicted by the dice rolling. If you're going to study patterns of rolling in any depth you'll need to know what probability would really expect to be able to spot non-probable results.

I would suggest that need does not affect the dice rolls but rather the perception of them.

Example, you roll twenty dice needing 4+
You roll 10x 3 and 10x 6.
That's a result with a significantly higher than average roll, however you don't perceive it as being particularly lucky because that increased average did not have an effect on the outcome that you desired.

Example, you roll three dice needing a 6
You roll 3x 5
That's perceived as a un-lucky result even though it was, again, well above average.

Ok, well... We have heard plenty from the side of Science. Don't go away you guys, we still may have a use for you yet.

Let us now hear some more from the Lucky side of things!

This is the place to post your lucky stories friends. I WANT to hear them, no matter how ridiculous you may think they sound. Consider this thread to be your safe haven away from the cold hard stare and scorn of science. Any game you play, and little things you do to feel lucky, post it here.

one thing: be bullish, just do it. if i play i aim to either win big or loos even bigger. no fun, if i play cards or even monopoly i am so stubborn as to set the odds really high. where is the fun in gaming when you play for keeps? so i just rush on and i pray for the green lady of luck to help me ...she seldom answers but well, when she helps out she gets mentioned and worshiped...

vik^^

Thank you Viktor, you have given me an idea to do a little recap of the info we have gathered thus far, and also to edit the first post to include said recap of info and further recaps of info.
(I'll try and keep the run on sentences down to a minimum.. )

So far, we now have a few categories of luck/luck users I think. Given the feed back I've written a brief summary in my own words of these categories. These are subject to change as we gather more input, we may also add new categories or new subcategories. Or if you think you fall into one of these categories but the definition is a little off, please let me know so we can work together, or even create a whole new category.

For a subcategory, I think we could have: Binary or Variable.
(A) Variable Luck:= Pick and choose. We create our own luck and, to a degree, we can control how lucky we get.
(B) Binary Luck:= On or off. We might or might not be lucky, we can not change it.

For the main category, I have come up with these scenarios:

1) Lucky Warrior:= Luck favors the bold... Guns blazing, bullets flying, let the dice land where they may... Usually Subcategory(B)
2) Lucky Magician:= Luck favors the ritual... Charms, chants, superstitions, gestures, dances, song, or projections of energy shall win the day... Usually Subcategory(A)
3) Lucky Divinity:= Luck favors the blessed... Prayer and meditation shall bestow the gift of luck upon thee... Usually Subcategory(A)
4) Lucky Logician:= Luck favors no one... With my understanding of probabilities, and through my actions, I might be able to stack odds in my favor... Usually Subcategory(B)
5) Luckless:= Luck does not exist... There are only the cold hard apathetic laws of science and math... Usually Subcategory(B) (just usually turned off though)

These are just examples, dont let them limit you... If you feel like a Lucky Warrior and you feel like you have more control over your luck than just "on or off" then great!

For the luck side. Buy a lot of dice. Roll at the die on a table. Take one die from each pack, that rolled a one, place them together and lite them on fire. Set an example out of the dice that don't know how to roll.

Then in a game never roll a die that has rolled greater than a 5. Once it rolls a 5 put it in the bag of dice to be taken home. Keep track of the bad dice. When all goes to hell light them on fire.

HawaiiMatt wrote:Bad dice need to be properly trained.
Line them all up on the cement.
Pull every 10th die out, and in front of the rest, smash it with a hammer.

That will teach them to fail back to back Ld10 tests (with re-rolls).

acreedon wrote:For the luck side. Buy a lot of dice. Roll at the die on a table. Take one die from each pack, that rolled a one, place them together and lite them on fire. Set an example out of the dice that don't know how to roll.

Then in a game never roll a die that has rolled greater than a 5. Once it rolls a 5 put it in the bag of dice to be taken home. Keep track of the bad dice. When all goes to hell light them on fire.

Thank you both! This just gave me an Idea for a new category!

6) Lucky Enforcer:= If Luck favors one thing, destroy the other things... I might not be able to control luck, but I can beat unluckiness into submission... Usually Subcategory(A)

I'm in no way superstitious, but, after tipping out some Dice onto the table, when I start making Die Rolls, I'll tend to pick up those which have rolled low, in the hope that they will roll high to 'balance out' the odds.

i think i stick to some ritals, never lend dices, there your own. defend them...or you might gather bad luck...

also i think i´m a bold lucky warrior, also i tend to use some facts i found out along the way on the basics of never change a running system. when something works stick to it. used often enough it starts to be a ritual...
also this is something out of the department of gaming pants and the likes. if you have a winning t-shirt use it!

...
vik

Popsicle wrote:I'm in no way superstitious, but, after tipping out some Dice onto the table, when I start making Die Rolls, I'll tend to pick up those which have rolled low, in the hope that they will roll high to 'balance out' the odds.

...Huh.

MinMax wrote:

Popsicle wrote:I'm in no way superstitious, but, after tipping out some Dice onto the table, when I start making Die Rolls, I'll tend to pick up those which have rolled low, in the hope that they will roll high to 'balance out' the odds.

...Huh.

He claims he's not superstitious, but then goes on to describe a meaningless ritual to try and improve his odds.

Possible explanations:
1) He doesn't know what the word superstitious means.
2) The words "in no" were a typo and shouldn't be there.
3) He added the caveat "I'm in no way superstitious" in the hopes that we wouldn't think he's a nutjob.
4) He doesn't understand how probability works and thinks dice will actually roll opposite results.
5) His psychic adviser told him that by posting this claiming it wasn't a superstition, he'll roll better.

Popsicle wrote:I'm in no way superstitious,

It would help if the rest of your post didn't immediately contradict this statement, as well as a thread you yourself started that thoroughly explains why probability doesn't work that way.

Popsicle wrote:I'm in no way superstitious, but, after tipping out some Dice onto the table, when I start making Die Rolls, I'll tend to pick up those which have rolled low, in the hope that they will roll high to 'balance out' the odds.

Thank you Popsicle, thank you for sharing with us... The rest of you guys chill out a bit and let the man speak...

So, given the categories of luck we are all working on to find, I would say that Popsicle here is category:

4) Lucky Logician:= Luck favors no one... With my understanding of probabilities, and through my actions, I might be able to stack odds in my favor... Subcategory(B)

Even though he knows the rules of probabilities, he still makes an effort to try and view the odds differently, so they can be perceived as being in his favor. It might work or it might not, hence the Subcategory(B) for Binary Luck; on or off...

Psyker_9er wrote:Ok, well... We have heard plenty from the side of Science. Don't go away you guys, we still may have a use for you yet.

Let us now hear some more from the Lucky side of things!

This is the place to post your lucky stories friends. I WANT to hear them, no matter how ridiculous you may think they sound. Consider this thread to be your safe haven away from the cold hard stare and scorn of science. Any game you play, and little things you do to feel lucky, post it here.

Once I was playing a game of Steve' Jackson's Battlesuit. Both sides were down to one guy, and my opponent did a major jump move which put his guy in an excellent position to shoot my guy the next turn.

As his guy was moving fast and stuff, there were a lot of negative To Hit modifiers, so my opponent said something like, "Got you now", and I said, "Unless I roll double one".

I rolled double one.

Well painted Minis get better dice rolls that unpainted minis.

Fact.

Source: Space Hulk 3rd Edition. A lone painted terminator 'punched' his way through 6 genestealers, whilst the rest of his almost painted squad died from horrific close combat injuries....

Luck is what you make of it. You can choose to put your faith in either luck or logic, both are simply a means to help explain the Universe, which we cannot fully commprehend.

I think luck could be an untestable 'attribute' but beyond that, there are levels of what could be considered 'lucky'. I could go and submit a resume to NASA of all my odd jobs and how I like science fiction and think "well I might just get lucky, there's always a chance" or I might just be told "dude, don't be such an idiot". Taking a chance when you can, and have a slight possibility of success (like rolling a 6 when you need it, for instance), while the consequences of not succeeding are minimal, is more like weighing probability. That's what good Blood Bowl players learned. You always make your easy moves first, your crucial but risky ones next, and your 'maybe just maybe' moves last (because your turn is over as soon as one guy messes up a roll). I have had games where I roll all hits and wounds and he improbably rolled all his saves. I got lucky on two separate sets of rolls, he only got lucky on one set of rolls, so he won out in the end and proceeded to roll crummy hit rolls with his all-important 10 lasgun volley who all missed. He argued that "see I roll just as many 1s as you do" yeah but 1's about what? That isn't probability so much as luck in my opinion. Toss in the exta factor of being consistently 'lucky' of your timing for something good to happen combined with the mathematical probability and you have another factor to consider. Making a chart to show how everyone rolls the same amount of 1s and 6s in the long run doesn't take into account the timing of when they happen and regarding what.
Other games have seen a hive tyrant hit by 6 melta shots and not get a single wound because of all of my 1's, followed by him slaughtering my whole Fire Dragon squad because of a failed 9 Ld check at -1. It's not just who rolls the best dice, but who rolls the best dice when it is really really important to an outcome. I would happily miss 10 hit rolls with my BS3 crap weapon wielding troops for just once to have a melta gun hit when I need it to. That can only be considered 'luck'. Picking what probably outcome to take a risk on compared to the importance of it and difficulty of it may make some people seem more lucky than others because they take the chance only if the result of beating the odds is very favorable, not taking a chance on a whim.

I guess what I think is that luck picks its targets, but the targets who seem 'lucky' pick where they need it most and take their chances only on highly profitable risks, not just any risk solely for the opportunity that it might just succeed when the payout isn't that big a deal. High risk investments and high stakes gambling come to mind; Either you take the risk you can afford to lose and say "meh.. go figure, it was a long shot", (or have nothing to lose), or you win big and say "haha I'm lucky!"

Thank you Guitardian, that sort of thing has been scratching at the back of my mind too, I just couldn't quite put it into words yet... Well said.

One of the main reasons I put this topic in "Dakka Discussions" is to include as many games, gamers, and gaming scenarios as possible. Because like what you said Guitardian, keeping track of each number we "'actually" roll with the dice is not nearly as important to this study as the "desired" results of that dice roll.

I'm still working on categories, got a few ideas for some new ones I'm working on. Perhaps, phase two of information gathering could be kind of like a battle report. Those who want to help out can pick a category they feel describes them, and then keep track of their dice rolls v.s. desired results. Then we can perhaps start to notice which category seems to be the "luckiest". That might be a bit much to ask people to post every time they roll some dice, but it would defiantly and greatly help this study...

Since we are still on the first phase, I shall go ahead and add one new category:

7)Indifferent:= Lucky favors? Ehh... This is a game of chance, mathematical probabilities and luck can't change anything, so just let me roll my dice... Usually Subcategory(B)

I am trying to get every type of personal view on luck included in at least one of these categories. But feel free to pick more than one for yourself if you would like. Just like Viktor von Domm says, he feels like both a Lucky Warrior and a bit of a Lucky Magician.

Mr Proudhoof wrote:Well painted Minis get better dice rolls that unpainted minis.

Fact.

Source: Space Hulk 3rd Edition. A lone painted terminator 'punched' his way through 6 genestealers, whilst the rest of his almost painted squad died from horrific close combat injuries....

Okay but observe the equally factual statement that any newly painted mini placed on the table will be dead by the end of turn 2.

sebster wrote:

Mr Proudhoof wrote:Well painted Minis get better dice rolls that unpainted minis.
Fact.
Source: Space Hulk 3rd Edition. A lone painted terminator 'punched' his way through 6 genestealers, whilst the rest of his almost painted squad died from horrific close combat injuries....

Okay but observe the equally factual statement that any newly painted mini placed on the table will be dead by the end of turn 2.

They either die by turn 2, or nothing comes in range of their fire so they spend the whole game just running in circles. Hmm it seems that irony also has it's fickle hand in our fate sometimes... With these two examples, plus the example Kilkrazy posted:

Kilkrazy wrote:"Got you now", and I said, "Unless I roll double one"... I rolled double one.

I think they might equal another category of how luck might work:

8) Lucky Irony:= Luck favors a good joke... What can go wrong, will go wrong, so I prepare for the worst and hope the joke is not on me... Usually Subcategory(B)

Hmmm... Seems a bit too generalized to me...So I will leave this one open to debate before I make it an official category... Not that, anything is actually official yet... We have grasped on to something here though, I can feel it, but I can't quite find the words for it...

I'm curious what kind of demographic we have so far... Lets do a quick roll call shall we!?!?
What category and subcategory of luck do you think you fit into? One of the 8 I have already proposed? Or is it one yet to be defined? I could guess all day based on the responses that have been posted, but it is up to you to decide...

If you haven't guessed by now... I consider myself to be a Lucky Magician with Subcategory(A) for variable... I haven't quite found the one ritual to end all rituals, but I'm trying

Phase 2- How To Play:= A Game of Luck
Three easy steps:

1)Choose
2)Challenge
3)Chart

*********
1)Choose:= Pick one category or pick a few, also include subcategory. If you don't currently like any of the 8 categories feel free to discuss changing one or adding more. I have collected opinions on "luck" from all over this website, please choose what you feel best describes you.

---Main Category:
Lucky Warrior:= Luck favors the bold... Guns blazing, bullets flying, let the dice land where they may...
Lucky Magician:= Luck favors the ritual... Charms, chants, superstitions, gestures, dances, song, or projections of energy shall win the day...
Lucky Divinity:= Luck favors the blessed... Prayer and meditation shall bestow the gift of luck upon thee...
Lucky Logician:= Luck favors no one... With my understanding of probabilities, and through my actions, I might be able to perceivably stack odds in my favor...
Lucky Enforcer:= If Luck favors one thing, destroy the other things... I might not be able to control luck, but I can beat unluckiness into submission...
Lucky Irony:= Luck favors a good joke... What can go wrong, will go wrong, so I prepare for the worst and hope the joke is not on me...
Lucky Chaos:= Luck favors the random... Gravitational pull from the stars or seismic activity from butterflies flapping their wings can change the outcome of a dice roll more than I can.
Luckless:= Luck does not exist... There are only the cold hard apathetic laws of science and math...
Indifferent:= Lucky favors? Ehh... This is a game of chance, mathematical probabilities and luck can't change anything, so just let me roll my dice...

---Subcategory:
Variable Luck:= (v)... We create our own luck and, to a degree, we can control how lucky we get.
Binary Luck:= (+)n... I consider myself to be lucky, but we can not change it. .
Binary Luck:= (-)ff... I do not consider myself lucky or otherwise, we can not change it.

2)Challenge:= Create a gaming scenario for others to roll "against" you. Any kind of scenario, any game, or any type of dice.

3)Chart:= BE HONEST! We all must be completely honest and trust in the honor system. Record what you rolled, post what you recorded. Also include in your post, any information that might be relevant to your chosen category of luck or the challenge you accepted.

Examples:
a) How many tries does it take for you to roll double six using 3d6?

b) My troops inflicted 2 wounds against your troops; pick a basic troop choice from your favorite 40k codex and roll 2d6 to save. Roll 5+ if you don't normally play 40k. Count how many times it takes for you to pass with both dice.

c) You are trying to pick the lock on a treasure chest, roll one d20, you succeed on a roll of 15 or above. You have one chance to get this right before a trap is sprung, so you can only roll once.

--------------------------------

Examples of Made up Imaginary Responses to the Examples from Above:
a) It took me 27 tries to roll double six with 3d6. I noticed that my blue dice never rolled higher than 3, I think it might have an imperfection so I'm not going to use that one any more. Luckless:= (-)

b) I picked Space Marines as my troop choice, they needed to roll 3+. I rolled 1 and 2 using a lucky rabbit foot... Then I tried again with out the rabbit foot and I rolled double six. Now I don't use that rabbit's foot any more. Lucky Magician:=(v)

c) Picked the lock on my first try, rolled a 17. I was feeling lucky so I didn't hesitate to roll. Lucky Warrior:= (+)

*************

Phase 2: Purpose is to both have fun and gather more data for the math heads to chew on. This type of study/game play gives people a chance to test their luck against other categories of luck or lucklessness. By creating game like scenarios, we can simulate the desire to succeed when rolling. This also gives an opportunity to freely practice as many lucky rituals, as you may want, with out a delay of game penalty. Most importantly, with this type of blind study it helps prevent cross contamination. When opponents are directly in front of each other, they can potentially project an aura of bad luck towards the opposing player or dice. With this style of competition we may never know who or when some one is rolling against us.

Lucky Magician
- Dice whispering, mentally focusing on the numbers

a) A single try to get two 6’s on 3d6. (6,6,3)
b) A single try to save two guardsmen (6,6)
c) Two tries to get 15+ on a d20 (10, 16)

Luco wrote:Lucky Magician
- Dice whispering, mentally focusing on the numbers

a) A single try to get two 6’s on 3d6. (6,6,3)
b) A single try to save two guardsmen (6,6)
c) Two tries to get 15+ on a d20 (10, 16)

Nicely done!

A single try to get (6,6,3) and then a single try again rolling double six. That is a pretty impressive dice whispering skill you have... Keep up the good work! You might want to have a little talk with your d20 though...

Psyker_9er wrote:

Luco wrote:Lucky Magician
- Dice whispering, mentally focusing on the numbers

a) A single try to get two 6’s on 3d6. (6,6,3)
b) A single try to save two guardsmen (6,6)
c) Two tries to get 15+ on a d20 (10, 16)

Nicely done!

A single try to get (6,6,3) and then a single try again rolling double six. That is a pretty impressive dice whispering skill you have... Keep up the good work! You might want to have a little talk with your d20 though...

Thanks.

Luco wrote:Lucky Magician
- Dice whispering, mentally focusing on the numbers

a) A single try to get two 6’s on 3d6. (6,6,3)
b) A single try to save two guardsmen (6,6)
c) Two tries to get 15+ on a d20 (10, 16)

To small of a testing pool to be accurate. Also, no control.