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well, even the way I did the manticores, they were eating up the LF's. I should have taken the armor save though. I took the cover save.

I will run the simulation again, "yes, I can hear you moaning as you read this". I think that the odds get very bad after turn 2 of simulating the game correctly, so I am going to stick with only 36 inch weapons on turn 2, 48 inch weapons on turn 1. this means that the chimera's will again not be part of the simulation, and neither will the plasma guns on the razorbacks.

Also since many of you countered that I could not take out the manticores, I will assume that they get full cover in the next simulation, and I will make them roll the full scatter dice when shooting. If the scouts manage to get behind them on turn 2, I will try and plant melta bombs on them.

THe point is, by discounting the Guardsmen inside who have quite a bit of the leafblower list's firepower, you're discounting a huge chunk of the army. You really can't do that. To be honest, the only way you can really simulate all this is to find a guy to play with, proxy to all hell if you have to and run it.

The issue with the scatter is, since you have so many razorbacks, when he scatters, he'll probably still hit something. You can't take this into account in a "simulation" involving no models.

Also, turn 1 needs to include multilasers, they're going to be in range. The board is 48 inches wide, you're both deployed some of your 12 inches in. Even if you're on the exact edge with your razors, he can shoot you from his deployment zone.

Plasma guns and other 24 inch range stuff should probably wait until turn 2 if you're set on doing it this way.

Also if his Chimeras move 6" (like they should) the multilasers will definitely be in range, and don't tell me 18 S6 shots aren't going to do SOMETHING to your Razorbacks.

I will add the multi lasers to my simulation in turn 1. That's not a problem.

Also to let you know, we are using models on a table, its just a short table and we are assuming the ranges, so when scattering, I am scattering onto other razorbacks and dreadnoughts.

Ok, here is the next simulation with the correct manticore rules, and assuming that manticores cannot be shot at.

Turn 1 IG
Manticore 1 @LF 1: 3 shots, 15 hits, 3 die including commander, make leadership test.
Manticore 2 @LF 2: 1 shot, scatters 8 and whiffs
Manticore 3 @LF 2: 2 shots, 10 hits, 2 die including Rune priest
Vendetta 1 @Rb 1: wrecks it
vendetta 2 @RB 2: cover save made, it was behind the dreadnought
Vendetta 3 @RB 2: whiffs

Turn 1 wolves
LF1@vendetta 1: stuns, immobilizes, Rune priest whiffs with LL.
LF2@vendetta 2: whiffs, Rune priest is dead
LF3@vendetta 3: immobilize it
Razorbacks 2,3,4@ vendetta 2: all whiff
Dreads 1 and 2@Vendetta 2: weapon destroyed and stunned
Rune priest in razorback manages to cast storm caller, all razorbacks and dreads now have 5+ cover save

Turn 2 IG
manticore 1@LF 1: 2 shots, 6 hits, 2 die, pass leadership.
Manticore 2@LF2: scatters 12 inches misses
Manticore 3@LF2: killls commander
Vendetta 2 is the only one not stunned. Shoots Razorback 2: immobilize, and stunned

Turn 2 wolves
reserves fail to come in
LF1@ vendetta 1: whiff, RP manages to destroy a weapon with LL.
LF2@ Vendetta 3: whiff
LF3@ vendetta 3: immobilize
Dreadnoughts all whiff
Bjorn stuns V2
All razorbacks unload into Vendetta 3 and wreck it.

This would leave all manticores functional and a wall of chimera's for the wolves to deal with, + the vendetta's are stuck, but are still able to fire.

I don't think this looks good for the wolves.

After running this simulation, I was wondering if its wise for the manticores to shoot at the long fangs as some of you suggested, with STR 10, it seems more like logical to shoot at the Razorback formation and ignore the Long fangs. Thoughts?

All this being said, the general concensus is the following:

1) SW with Longfangs have a strong matchup against IG and a good matchup against other armies.

2) IG have a stronger matchup against non-SW armies than any other one in the game.

This is kind of up in the air though now that they FAQed BT and DA. We will have to see how these lists actually perform to see how they will do. Both are being planned on by many to be true competitors.

Ok, next simulation. This time, wolves went first (we rolled). chimera's are assumed to move 6 on turn 1 to get into multilaser range, vendetta's scout moved and get 4+ cover saves, manticores are obscured and can't be shot. Wolves are still turtling. This time the IG player is going to shoot at the razorback formation only.

Turn 1 wolves
Rune priest in RAzorback 3 gets off storm caller
LF1@vendetta 1: stun, immob, Rune priest whiffs
LF2@vendetta 2: immob, RP stuns with LL
LF3@vendetta 3: blows it up
Dread 1@command squad chimera (assuming cover save) wrecks it
Dread 2@disembarked command squad, shoots frag missile and lascannon, all make cover saves
RB 1, and 2 whiff on chimera's
RB 3 immob chimera 2
RB 4 stuns chimera 3

Turn 1 IG
Manticore 1@Rb 3 (for maximum scatter and this is the one with the Rune priest) 2 shots, immobilizes it, 2nd shot gets half str hit on RB2, but doesn't glance
Manticore 2@RB 3: 3 shots. gets 1 pen, 1 glance, 1 1/2 str hit, cover save made full str hits, 1/2 str fails to do anything
manticore 3@RB 3: 1 shot. scatters 9 inches gets 1/2 str hit on dread, whiffs
Vendetta 3 can still shoot. Shoots @ RB2. manages to immob, and destroy lascannon
chimera's 1 is out, chimera 2 and 3 could'nt move up and shoot. 4, 5, 6, and 7 move up and fire multi lasers at RB formation
Chimera 4 whiffs
chimera 5 whiffs
chimera 6 @RB 1 shakes it
Chimera 7@RB 4 whiffs

Turn 2 wolves (no reserves come in, Rune priest casts storm caller)
LF1@Vendetta 1: blows it up. Rune priest manages to stun Vendetta 2
LF2@vendetta 2: destroys 2 lascannons
LF3@vendetta 2: destroys remaining weapons, it is now immob, and no weapons
RB3@chimera 7: weapon destroyed
all remaining wolf weapons whiff

Turn 2 IG
all 3 manticores only manage to destroy 1 weapon on a razorback
5 manticores all shoot multilaser and whiff

This one seems to have panned out well for the wolves but is still wide open. I think the IG player would have a rough time dealing with the remaining long fangs in cover.

Seriously... why don't you actually proxy this? Or vassal it

this thread is depressing. just play the damn game

by the way, that IG list would totally KILL those space wolves if you took it mathematically. that should answer ur question

Vassal it. Please. It'd be much more accurate.

I decided to take some of your advice and we set up a proxy army and played out the full game. Wolves won first turn, and to be honest it wasn't even close. Wolves destroyed IG outright. it was very much over by turn 2 with all of the vendetta's laying on the ground smoking, and the manticores having little effect against marine armor. I even did as you suggested and rushed my chimera's up. the wolves were able to pop the lead chimera's and provided nice speed bumps along the way, after most of the chimera's were popped the vets started foot slogging it across the board and got mowed down by frag missiles and plasma shots from the razorbacks.

I feel somewhat vindicated by my simulations as they turned out to be quite accurate as to how it would play out.

I would love to hear other's thoughts on what your experience as an IG player has been against razor/long fang spam.

In a game with zero tactics, and wolves winning first turn, I'm not surprised they won.

Reality is a completely different, complex situation, and i seriously doubt considering you knew next to none of the IG rules, that you played them properly against your own army (which you do know)

Try it in real life versus an IG player.

If the wolves won first turn, the Ig player would have reserved everything in all likelihood. Manticores can fire directly the turn they come on, and etc etc. I'm not saying the IG win this match easily, if both players are skilled, the lists arent too unevenly matched. The problem is your simulations are so flawed (both the "played" and unplayed ones) that you can't glean anything very useful from it.

The thing is even if you proxy a game you will not play it as well as someone who's main army is IG. Simple things you are not really considering. First off you are never ever going to run into an IG player who sits back and does not engage with his chimeras. Even if you are not in range for melta (which is possible first turn if your opponent deploys on his front line), atleast one or two will move a full 12 in and pop smoke. Setting himself up for a turn two 2d6 melta action. And that is just one of the possibilities.

You really need to stop trying to theory it and either proxy (with someone who knows how to play) or go an vassal, or just admit that you will be at a disadvantage when you face a true IG player in a tourney. Not because of the list, but because you don't know how to defend against it.

Grix.

targetawg wrote:In a game with zero tactics, and wolves winning first turn, I'm not surprised they won.

I am not sure what you mean by this. I played the IG army and I fought against the wolves to the best of my ability. I just think that the list I was provided didn't have enough 48 inch weapons to go toe to toe with the wolves. That seem to play out time and again both in the simulations and in the game itself.

The problem is that you don't know how to play the IG leafblower like a seasoned IG player would. From what I can tell you moved the Chimeras 6 inches to shoot multilasers, while a more seasoned IG player may have moved some forward 12" and popped smoke. The second turn you would have had to deal with lots of melta guns to the face.

Similarly, the Vendettas would have moved so that they could get their 4+ cover save, especially if they don't have first turn.

Finally, by only playing 2 turns, you completely ignore the veterans hidden inside those Chimeras. Those vets could very easily tear through a good chunk of your SPace Wolf army. Plasma kills any infantry, while melta blows up tanks.

And you're right, the IG doesn't have a lot of 48" range weaponry...which is why the Manticores blast you from afar, and the Veterans get up close and personal, thus negating the problem. Either they're too far away to hit, or they're so close that it doesn't matter anyway.

gannam wrote:

targetawg wrote:In a game with zero tactics, and wolves winning first turn, I'm not surprised they won.

I am not sure what you mean by this. I played the IG army and I fought against the wolves to the best of my ability. I just think that the list I was provided didn't have enough 48 inch weapons to go toe to toe with the wolves. That seem to play out time and again both in the simulations and in the game itself.

Thats the problem. To the best of your ability. You aren't an IG player.

It's not a slight, you just aren't. My first game playing as space wolves probably would be pretty sub par versus an experienced player. But in that game you stated, you shouldn't have deployed a single model. You should have chosen to keep everything in reserve, come in on t2 on a 3+, and outflanked the vendettas. You'd of still gotten the first shot at the space wolves with your entire army, vendettas move on 6 and fire all, into side armor. Manticores roll on and drop templates. Etc.

The other thing to remember, is that games are not "kill each other" they're "accomplish the mission objectives". What deployment and mission were you playing?

Vendettas should have made more cover saves in the simulation. As others had said this simulation stuff is rubbish, play the game against a Guard player as yourself you're not a Guard player and will not play the Guard to full affect.

wow there are so many things wrong with this thread its hard to count.

you cant mathammer whole armies effectively.

what scenario are you playing that you get to start 48" apart? all the ones i see in the book your 24.01 to start.

I see where your going with this and everything but your negating a bunch of tactics. At best playing vs yourself its going to come down to who shoots first. In a real game its way beyond that, chimeras drive forward pop smoke to prove cover to themselves and the chimeras behind them(if not outright denying LOS), that many meltas/plas and multi lasers is going to screw with a ton of stuff. The Vendettas can outflank behind the LFs and drop off plasma vets + CCS for orders. The manticores can nuke several vehicles/squads at once without being visible to return fire. There are just so many different variables you cant simulate all of the, they just require a bunch of games to really get then hang of and appreciate. This is coming from a IG and SW player.

lixulana wrote:

what scenario are you playing that you get to start 48" apart? all the ones i see in the book your 24.01 to start.

The board is 48" in width and everything could deploy against the board edge would could make the gap about 36" one measuring from barrels etc.

Well, you may question my tactics, but saying that the exercise was useless is, IMO, not a valid statement. I learned the following from this experiment

1. Manticore is an effective delivery system from anywhere on the board and should be respected.
2. Most of the IG army structure has front armor 12 and plasma weapons are only moderately effective against IG mech.
3. Missile weapons are adequate and can destroy most IG vehicles. I can expect good IG players to target my long fangs on turn 1, and should protect them if possible.
4. Vendetta's are very vulnerable in the medium range game to razorspam, even more so at a 24 inch range if you are outfitted with las/plas. They do, however soak up alot of shots. I would say that 3 vendetta's can keep a wolf army busy for 2 turns.
5. using storm caller on razorbacks is an effective way to counter IG artillery. The manticores had limited success in every engagement.
6. If you can disable, or outlast the long range assault of an IG army, they will be forced to come out and get you, thereby leaving a turtled IG army somewhat ineffective against a turtled wolf army.

I know that several of you have suggested that a simple counter to the wolf army that I was playing was to rush out the chimera's and be aggressive, but I have yet in my experience to see that tactic used by an IG army. Most are content to sit on objectives and make you come to them. It would be interesting to play against an aggressive IG opponent.

Fearspect wrote:All this being said, the general concensus is the following:

Is it?

Fearspect wrote:1) SW with Longfangs have a strong matchup against IG and a good matchup against other armies.

Fair enough, they are indeed fun to play with and against.

Fearspect wrote:2) IG have a stronger matchup against non-SW armies than any other one in the game.

Perhaps that's jumping into conclusions, I have played Vs. IG with a couple of different (and how) armies and no such disbalance took place, they are a bone to chew but, there are hundreds of other tactics and/or combos all around many armies (be it themed of all-comers) fond of being this competitive or that tabling machine...

I strongly believe there is no such a thing as "unbeatable army" or the infamous "I win" button, just that.

What the is going on here? Why don't you just play the GAME. You know, like its a game? You have fun socializing with friends, making pew-pew noises and admiring eachothers painting skills. Seriously, just play the game. Not only are you conducting an excercise in futility, you're not paying attention to the number one rule of 40k.



PLAYING THE GAME

Oh, and having fun.

My head hurts...

So you replied with the exact same thing that I stated? No one says they are an auto-win, they just take better advantage of the single most imbalanced portion of 5th edition rules, vehicle damage charts, than any other army.

They do not have overpowering strengths, but few weaknesses. The weakness of IG is saturated Str 8 weapons on the other side of table. If people loaded up on Autocannons as much against SM (all flavours) when they are going mech, similar situations would occur, however the Str7AP4 is not especially effective against the contents of the transports once they are spilled open.

I have no clue how you managed to directly quote me, then follow it right afterward with me having said something else.

Man I would love to play at your FLGS. Just walk up to each hand each other your list, pull out a calculator, and figure out who won. I could get in a tons of games in one night!

And since each game only runs 2 turns, you can automatically predict who wins. I mean, who has EVER heard of someone barely eeking out a win at the last minute?

General_Chaos wrote:Man I would love to play at your FLGS. Just walk up to each hand each other your list, pull out a calculator, and figure out who won. I could get in a tons of games in one night!

there is one thing and only one thing that is awesome against leaf blowers

daemons

I know that its easy to do on the internet, but you should not conjecture that an experiment I ran during an ice storm locked in my house means that I don't enjoy playing 40K, or that I only play for 2 turns.

I think that I posted way back in the beginning of this thread that this simulation is by far not a substitute for playing a real game.

I would also be willing to bet that GW uses simulations and forecasts and modeling tools to see how battles would play out between armies from a balancing perspective.

That's like saying that soldiers shooting at dummy targets is not a valid exercise because the dummies don't shoot back.

Furthermore the beauty of internet forums is that if you are disgusted by a thread, you have the option of not reading it. There might actually be some users on here that would like to run their own simulations and found my experiment useful.

In fact, I am going to do more simulations as I found them quite valuable. I may even post them on Dakka, though perhaps not in this section.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

ChrisWWII wrote:And since each game only runs 2 turns, you can automatically predict who wins. I mean, who has EVER heard of someone barely eeking out a win at the last minute?

I am not sure if you play in a competitive venue or not, but the current meta game is very heavily influenced by alpha strike armies. What happens in the first 2 turns very often determines the outcome of the game.

That is not really something I care for, but it is the current reality of the tournament scene.

I think that running a simulation through turn 2 does 2 things

1. Allows time for you to run through more simulations, thereby increasing your sample size for statistical variance,
2. Allows you to determine your validity as an alpha strike army, and your defense against one.

Mathhammer can only get you so far maybe try using vassel? And getting someone else to control the IG?