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Made in us
Boom! Leman Russ Commander





Princeton, WV

What about that Decapitator guy on dakka? I thought he had a few very reliable rumours that ended up being true.
   
Made in us
Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

Link to Decapitator stuff?

Updated a ton of rumors from the Chaos thread, including the infamous Ghost21 rumor set.

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Focused Fire Warrior





Thornton, Colorado

I like this idea but I don't think a rating is necessary. BTW, Harry says Tau are spring 2013...so there's another one for him. I'm betting he's right.

http://www.warseer.com/forums/showthread.php?328278-Tau-Rumours-3-0-(see-first-post-for-round-up)/page33

post #654

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/08 23:33:56


 
   
Made in us
Calculating Commissar






I usually take what Hastings and Harry say as true.

I have noticed though that BoW don't usually POST rumors, they just re-post/ publish them. And leak delicious pictures.

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Made in gb
Fixture of Dakka







I may have been seeing things, but wasn't Stickmonkey right about the Direct Only lashwhip/bonesword blisters? You've got that point listed as "PENDING WRONG DATE".

Also, before you update anything else, I'd recommend going back and checking all your tags - dr bored has a [/spoiler] without the opening tag, and there was a random opening bold tag floating around there as well.

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 Kanluwen wrote:
This is, emphatically, why I will continue suggesting nuking Guard and starting over again. It's a legacy army that needs to be rebooted with a new focal point.

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Made in de
Decrepit Dakkanaut







Rating rumour mongers is more complicated than that.
1.) Consider rumour history. Even made up rumours usually contain Hastings' and Harry's rumours because otherwise they would sound less convincing.
2.) Some website admins/owners/mods like Yakface and Darnok get the occasional birdy talking. Other posters have several sources of different credibility. Some like BoLS usually only repost from other sites withpout giving credit.
3.) Some posters just get the WD early and post credible stuff, some like stickmonkey post longtime predictions that change even if true at the time. Does that reduce the worth of stickmonkey's rumours? No.

Hive Fleet Ouroboros (my Tyranid blog): http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/286852.page
The Dusk-Wraiths of Szith Morcane (my Dark Eldar blog): http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/364786.page
Kroothawk's Malifaux Blog http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/455759.page
If you want to understand the concept of the "Greater Good", read this article, and you never again call Tau commies: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism 
   
Made in dk
Focused Fire Warrior





Denmark

I have to agree with Kroot, I don't think this thread serves the purpose you hope it does Pretre.

I mean, let's say that you follow the rumours and their accuracy for 6 months and find out that Haay and Hastings are mostly right: with Harry having some of his dates wrong. And you find out that a user that only posted a couple of rumours and never posted anything new after that was wrong, then what? Because that's basically where we are now just going on intuition.

People already know who's mostly right and mostly wrong. We also know that it isn't an exact science, so to ding Hastings in his scores because he was a little off oon a date, but posted the rumour 5 months before everyone else seems illogical.

And even if you change your system so it doesn't punish early rumours, then what? Any rumour can be false or true, even by a person with a otherwise great track record. Just look at Ghost, he predicted dreadfleet before anyone else and then just made up stuff. But your counter would have had him at 100% for a long time.

what I'm basically saying is: the rumour scene is one where a lot of new players try and make a name, and a few hardcore people have made a name. Let's just keep it like that instead of turning it into fantasy football

Cheers

Saddened on behalf of all the Ultramarines, Salamanders and White Scars players who got their Codex rolled into Codex: Black Templars.  
   
Made in au
Norn Queen






Unfortunately hastings dropped out of the rumour game because of all the bs.

Harry is pretty much the most reliable, simply because he doesn't post rumours. He waits until it's about 2-3 months out and knows for sure, and gives out pretty much spot on information after gathering it for so long. At that point it's not a rumour, it's early news.
   
Made in de
Decrepit Dakkanaut







-Loki- wrote:Unfortunately hastings dropped out of the rumour game because of all the bs.

And then he gave us the contents of the 40k starter box
But rumour posting can be unrewarding, so several other well known rumour posters have indeed stopped.

Hive Fleet Ouroboros (my Tyranid blog): http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/286852.page
The Dusk-Wraiths of Szith Morcane (my Dark Eldar blog): http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/364786.page
Kroothawk's Malifaux Blog http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/455759.page
If you want to understand the concept of the "Greater Good", read this article, and you never again call Tau commies: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utilitarianism 
   
Made in gb
Dakka Veteran



South East London

If it helps I can let you know which rumours I have posted / Contributed to and when I was wrong.

I would say that on my own track record I am about 50% to be honest, but I just post what I hear, and sometimes the timing is way off, or sometimes it's just plain wrong.

I have to say I have been out of the rumours loop for a bit now, but that's mainly because I am just not hearing anything to be honest.

So, back in 2009 I predicted that Tyranids would be getting new models, including the Harpy.

I was sort of right then, as I said they were just getting models but not a Codex, so that was wrong.

I also thought the Harpy was actually going to be a plastic Harridan, as at the time the Harpy didn't exist in the fluff AFAK (not a 'Nid player).

In 2010 I said Tau would be getting lots of new models including a flyer. However my source said they were due to hit in June 2011 so that was wrong, and it remains to be seen if the models and flyer ever hit.

I believe I was one of the first to suggest that the 6th Edition starter would be Dark Angels vs Chaos, but also that the boxed set would be a double release, one with DA, one with Chaos and scenery for each in the box. I now think that's wrong but still believe it's DA vs Chaos.

I predicted blister packs being withdrawn from stores and going direct only, but totally missed Finecast, so was sort of right but not really.

I also heard that Chaos would be June, and that they would be getting a flyer, a single seater fast interceptor. That I guess is still pending, but I am now convinced the single seater fast interceptor could in fact have been the Storm Talon.

I was 100% accurate on the Dark Eldar release, but I guess that was a given as I got that straight from Jes.

I also talked about an Eldar super Heavy and Ad Mech getting the Forge World treatment back in 2010, so I guess that's pending.

I mentioned Dan Abnett's Interceptor City being delayed due to the 40K flyers release, which implied something big was coming.

I believe I was the first to predict IA9 and IA10 as being Badab War books.

The problem with rumours is that by the time they hit the internet they are at best 2nd hand information, but more often than not 3rd or 4th hand, so a lot gets lost in translation.

The other problem is that projects get started way ahead of release, and so it's not always a good idea to assume they are coming out when you think they are. For example, I saw the Harpy being worked on 3 years ago! And Tau, AFAIK have been completed models wise for at least 2 years.

So basically only ever take rumours as just that, they tend to give an inkling of what's coming, but like all future predictions can't be relied upon 100%.

But I would say Harry, Hastings and Stickmonkey are by far the most reliable rumour mongers on the web.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/09 13:24:24


"Dig in and wait for Winter" 
   
Made in us
Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

coyotius wrote:I like this idea but I don't think a rating is necessary. BTW, Harry says Tau are spring 2013...so there's another one for him. I'm betting he's right.

Perfect! Thanks.

Dysartes wrote:I may have been seeing things, but wasn't Stickmonkey right about the Direct Only lashwhip/bonesword blisters? You've got that point listed as "PENDING WRONG DATE".

Also, before you update anything else, I'd recommend going back and checking all your tags - dr bored has a [/spoiler] without the opening tag, and there was a random opening bold tag floating around there as well.

Awesome, I will update those two. Thanks!

Kroothawk wrote:Rating rumour mongers is more complicated than that.
1.) Consider rumour history. Even made up rumours usually contain Hastings' and Harry's rumours because otherwise they would sound less convincing.
2.) Some website admins/owners/mods like Yakface and Darnok get the occasional birdy talking. Other posters have several sources of different credibility. Some like BoLS usually only repost from other sites withpout giving credit.
3.) Some posters just get the WD early and post credible stuff, some like stickmonkey post longtime predictions that change even if true at the time. Does that reduce the worth of stickmonkey's rumours? No.

I agree. That's why I backed away from ratings and am just posting the predictions with TRUE, FALSE, PENDING or WRONG DATE.

Gorlack wrote:People already know who's mostly right and mostly wrong. We also know that it isn't an exact science, so to ding Hastings in his scores because he was a little off oon a date, but posted the rumour 5 months before everyone else seems illogical.

Except people still believe some of the outlandish crap from some of the notably unreliable posters.

And even if you change your system so it doesn't punish early rumours, then what? Any rumour can be false or true, even by a person with a otherwise great track record. Just look at Ghost, he predicted dreadfleet before anyone else and then just made up stuff. But your counter would have had him at 100% for a long time.

I don't post percentages.

-Loki- wrote:Harry is pretty much the most reliable, simply because he doesn't post rumours. He waits until it's about 2-3 months out and knows for sure, and gives out pretty much spot on information after gathering it for so long. At that point it's not a rumour, it's early news.

Well, for us, it is rumors.

StraightSilver wrote:If it helps I can let you know which rumours I have posted / Contributed to and when I was wrong.

I would say that on my own track record I am about 50% to be honest, but I just post what I hear, and sometimes the timing is way off, or sometimes it's just plain wrong.

snip

The problem with rumours is that by the time they hit the internet they are at best 2nd hand information, but more often than not 3rd or 4th hand, so a lot gets lost in translation.

The other problem is that projects get started way ahead of release, and so it's not always a good idea to assume they are coming out when you think they are. For example, I saw the Harpy being worked on 3 years ago! And Tau, AFAIK have been completed models wise for at least 2 years.

So basically only ever take rumours as just that, they tend to give an inkling of what's coming, but like all future predictions can't be relied upon 100%.

But I would say Harry, Hastings and Stickmonkey are by far the most reliable rumour mongers on the web.

Thanks a lot for this StraightSilver! I will update yours. I would agree, but wanted to give an actual way to track it. I'm also trying to stay away from "You said June and it came in July! HA YOU ARE WRONG!" by using the WRONG DATE tag and still giving credit.

For all, the idea is not to punish rumor mongers, simply to give perspective to those of us who aren't entirely sure about who is reliable and who isn't.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/09 13:41:26


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Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut






North of Chicago, IL USA

I like this idea, pretre.


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Made in us
Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

@kronk: Thanks!

I think I fixed most of the broken tags people were talking about. Keep sending me stuff if you see it.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Added Bigred from BOLS' 'Lores in 40k'

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/09 16:44:05


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Made in us
Tunneling Trygon





The House that Peterbilt

How far back you wanna go? I know BoK had a ton to say about GK and Necrons that was accurate and predated yakfaces rumor dump. yakface also reported fairly accurately some DE stuff. I am sure guys like harry and hastings have cred going pretty far back as well.

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Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

winterman wrote:How far back you wanna go? I know BoK had a ton to say about GK and Necrons that was accurate and predated yakfaces rumor dump. yakface also reported fairly accurately some DE stuff. I am sure guys like harry and hastings have cred going pretty far back as well.

Anything we can link to or confirm.

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Made in ca
Depraved Slaanesh Chaos Lord





I like this idea, but I think it should be taken very lightheartedly for reasons already mentioned by Kroothawk.

And regarding Yakface's massive Necron codex rumour posts, I think he was something like 95% dead-on. He had Destroyers as being units of up to 3, but a cheaper price, and the Monolith as being 0-1; IIRC, but otherwise I think everything else was correct. (maybe some changes to C'tan powers)
   
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Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

Yeah, I agree. I will update Yak's entry.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Added Eldar rumors from Stickmonkey and Romanus.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2012/05/11 14:59:24


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Decrepit Dakkanaut





Glorious Nation of U.S.S.A!

Cool thread... I'm curious to see the results in a few months.
   
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Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

As Kroothawk mentioned in another thread, Flyers will bump a lot of folks into the TRUE category.

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Contagious Dreadnought of Nurgle





Williamsburg VA

I think this is a great idea. THanks for all the effort you put into this. are you going to keep the first post updated. IF so you need to include Dark Generals rumors of the chaos codex.
Thanks again and i hope you keep this up.

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https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/350093.page#2499452 
   
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Sergeant Major






In the dark recesses of your mind...

pretre wrote:As Kroothawk mentioned in another thread, Flyers will bump a lot of folks into the TRUE category.


Flyers would have bumped a lot of rumor-mongers into the true category if they would have come out last summer...

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Most Glorious Grey Seer





Everett, WA

You need to add the wound allocation rumor to BoW given their new video.

 
   
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[DCM]
Last Remaining Whole C'Tan






Pleasant Valley, Iowa

Kroothawk wrote:
-Loki- wrote:Unfortunately hastings dropped out of the rumour game because of all the bs.

And then he gave us the contents of the 40k starter box
But rumour posting can be unrewarding, so several other well known rumour posters have indeed stopped.


And that's too bad, because TBH the rumors are one of my favorite things about warhams (I also really enjoy the trailers part of going to the movies).

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Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

sennacherib wrote:I think this is a great idea. THanks for all the effort you put into this. are you going to keep the first post updated. IF so you need to include Dark Generals rumors of the chaos codex.
Thanks again and i hope you keep this up.

Link to these rumors of Dark Generals?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Breotan wrote:You need to add the wound allocation rumor to BoW given their new video.

Looking at it now. I will add.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Btw, that wound allocation mechanic is kinda silly. Closest model first?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Added BoW's necron pic leak to their list.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2012/05/17 15:28:56


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Shas'o Commanding the Hunter Kadre





Richmond, VA

This idea is amazing, Keep at it!

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Unhealthy Competition With Other Legions






Ashburnham, Massachusetts

Great idea, nice to have data to back up intuition concerning quality of rumors.

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Back in the dark





Suffolk, where the Aliens roam.

Its a great idea, but I have to note the prediction of '6th edition release date' rumours are pretty pointless as any kind of predicting indicator.

I could have told you 40K 6th was coming out in July 2012, two years ago when Fantasy came out. GW have been following a 2yr release pattern alternating between Fantasy and 40K since fourth edition 40K, 2004.

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Morphing Obliterator





Orange County, California, USA

I think that this is a great idea, and I also think that this post should be stickied.

That said, it also should be carefully monitored by the Mods, to ensure that it isn't a flame-fest, or just an excuse for finger-pointing and name-calling. Maybe a Mod would be interested in maintaining it, like they maintain the "Reputable Trader List" stickied thread in the Swap Shop Forum...

That's just my humble suggestion, but either way, I think this post is a good idea, and I wanted to register my opinion as a longtime Dakka member.

-C6
   
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Badass "Sister Sin"






Camas, WA

Morathi's Darkest Sin wrote:Its a great idea, but I have to note the prediction of '6th edition release date' rumours are pretty pointless as any kind of predicting indicator.

I could have told you 40K 6th was coming out in July 2012, two years ago when Fantasy came out. GW have been following a 2yr release pattern alternating between Fantasy and 40K since fourth edition 40K, 2004.

Ahh, but you didn't. You could have an impeccable record.

And if not for the gap between 6th and 4th, the 2 year thing would go back to 1996.

Release of Warhams
1st Ed WH - 1983
2nd Ed Wh - 1984
3rd Ed WH - 1987
Rogue Trader 40k - 1987
4th Ed WH - 1992
2nd Ed 40k - 1993
5th Ed WH - 1996
3rd Ed 40k - 1998
6th Ed WH - 2000
4th Ed 40k - 2004
7th Ed WH - 2006
5th Ed 40k - 2008
8th Ed Wh - 2010

catharsix wrote:I think that this is a great idea, and I also think that this post should be stickied.

That said, it also should be carefully monitored by the Mods, to ensure that it isn't a flame-fest, or just an excuse for finger-pointing and name-calling. Maybe a Mod would be interested in maintaining it, like they maintain the "Reputable Trader List" stickied thread in the Swap Shop Forum...

That's just my humble suggestion, but either way, I think this post is a good idea, and I wanted to register my opinion as a longtime Dakka member.

Am I not trustworthy, C6? Anyways, the mods have better things to do than much around with this, whereas I have nothing better to do. If they wanna sticky it, that'd be great though.

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Somewhere in the dark...

@Pretre

Didn't BoK actually do a turn around on the 6th ed leak and then say they believed it to be a fake after saying it was true? I'm pretty sure that they did, anyway.



 
   
 
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