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Yeah considering the Greeks lied and cheated their way in, its no surprise they are fething things up.

The phrase "Beware Greeks bearing gifts" goes all the way back to Troy, Its nice to know the fethers haven't changed much!

Frazzled wrote:

The worst that could happen is a government debt default by Italy/Spain, but that's less likely than it was, especially in Italy.

if that happens the Euro crashes and the European Bank markets vapor lock. Welcome to Great Depression II, This Time Its Europe.

What is your basis for this?
For a start, an outright default is almost impossible outside of a political revolution. Much more likely is the government holds up its hands and the EU write off a certain amount of their debt.
Whatever happens from that would be bad, but manageable.
Let's put it this way - do you think Boeing are going to go under because California can't pay its debts?

Joey wrote:Let's put it this way - do you think Boeing are going to go under because California can't pay its debts?

The lack of true fiscal union in the EU is what makes eventual dissolution--or at least a massive restructuring to basically the Northern European Union more likely. In the States, if Louisianna is having a gakky year we simply shift money over from Texas. In the EU, you need crippling austerity assurances to keep money flowing into Greece and likely soon Italy as the bond yields have begun faltering there.

Once the German taxpayers get sick of leaving the tap flowing to pay for southern largesse the experiment ends. That seems more likely, not less, with France moving distinctly Leftward and anti-austerity, leaving even more of the burden on Germany, unless Hollande can somehow jump-start the economy, but with tax reform that basically amounts to punitive amounts against top earners, I doubt that's going to materialize.

What is your basis for this?

What the Eurozone going into a heavy recession or the financial markets vapor locking? The financial markets are not far off from vapor locking now.

For a start, an outright default is almost impossible outside of a political revolution. Much more likely is the government holds up its hands and the EU write off a certain amount of their debt.

You mean Greece etc. defaulting on their debt? Its highly possible as its effectively already occurred. Much of the debt was effectively written off by the earlier agreements.

Whatever happens from that would be bad, but manageable.

Remember if its someone else its a recession. If its you it’s a depression.

Let's put it this way - do you think Boeing are going to go under because California can't pay its debts?

What? That example doesn’t make any sense.

mattyrm wrote: Yeah considering the Greeks lied and cheated their way in, its no surprise they are fething things up.

The phrase "Beware Greeks bearing gifts" goes all the way back to Troy, Its nice to know the fethers haven't changed much!

I actually just read a book about the economic situation in Greece.

They didn't lie their way in. They just had a terrible record keeping thanks to deeply ingrained corruption. They told the truth that their records indicated. It's the records themselves that had meaningless information.

And, the wealthy in Greece aren't taxed less. They just bribe the tax collectors, so they don't get audited when they report zero income.

I seem to remember hearing about Argentina defaulting on its debts rather than taking on austerity measures. You guys seem a lot more knowledgeable than I on economics, did it sort them out? and what were the repercussions?

With Hollande getting in in France and Merkel losing the house in Germany, will this lead to a sea change in Europe where the ideology is now growth rather than austerity?

dæl wrote:I seem to remember hearing about Argentina defaulting on its debts rather than taking on austerity measures. You guys seem a lot more knowledgeable than I on economics, did it sort them out? and what were the repercussions?

With Hollande getting in in France and Merkel losing the house in Germany, will this lead to a sea change in Europe where the ideology is now growth rather than austerity?

It did default.
Argentina's economy never really recovered.

Tax evasion has been a part of Greek culture ever since the decline of the Greek city-states and becoming beholden to various Middle Eastern cultures. Dudes like the Persians would enact taxes, which Greeks would then do their best to dodge. It's not just wealthy Greeks that do it, either, it's more or less all levels of society. It's just the guys with yachts whose reported earnings are less than what would be needed to buy boat fuel for said yacht that do so to a greater extent.

Its past time they were given the old heave-ho. We should never have tried to bail them out, all we did was throw good money after bad. We'd have been better off just letting them collapse and using the money we tried to bail them out with to limit the damage. Now they have more of our money that they won't pay back, and the damage will be even greater.

dæl wrote:IWith Hollande getting in in France and Merkel losing the house in Germany, will this lead to a sea change in Europe where the ideology is now growth rather than austerity?

The ideology will become 'Free Candy', rooted in 'redistributive' policies. Hollande has basically promised to make it too expensive to be rich in France.

This is not a true growth policy, it actually more or less guarantees the opposite as wealthy people move, ship wealth out of France, or slow investment as a result of becoming less wealthy.

It's an ideology that will appeal to the masses, and is also probably necessary as you can't austerity your way out of a depression (1930s case in point), but it seems likely that this will swing too far away from austerity. Merkel and Hollande are too ideologically distant to even like each other, much less maintain close working relationships, so it doesn't bode well for German-French stability either, which is a negative overall.

Frazzled wrote:

What is your basis for this?

What the Eurozone going into a heavy recession or the financial markets vapor locking? The financial markets are not far off from vapor locking now.

How is the Eurozone in "heavy recession"? It's staggering along, Germany is growing slowly but steady, and the other northern economies deviate between low growth and stagnation.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-2144619/Strong-German-economic-growth-helps-eurozone-avoid-double-dip-recession.html?ito=feeds-newsxml
Note that the eurozone as a whole had 0% growth, this takes into account the economic monstrosities of Spain and Greece. In the UK the only reason we're in recession (albeit mildly) is because of government austerity.
Related to stock markets...this is the FTSE over the past two years: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EFTSE#symbol=%5Eftse;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Not really "vapor locking" whatever that means.

Frazzled wrote:
Remember if its someone else its a recession. If its you it’s a depression.

I don't know what that means. A depression is a particularly deep recession.

Frazzled wrote:
What? That example doesn’t make any sense.

Yes it does. Why would highly competative industries in Northern Europe suddely become unprofitable because a tiny country can't pay its debts?


Automatically Appended Next Post:

dæl wrote:I seem to remember hearing about Argentina defaulting on its debts rather than taking on austerity measures. You guys seem a lot more knowledgeable than I on economics, did it sort them out? and what were the repercussions?

Well they told foreigeners that they wouldn't pay back their debts to them. Guess which country went to the bottom of the list for foreign investment?
Greece is different though. They're reluctant to distance themselves from Europe for cultural and historic reasons, not least of which they invented Western culture in the first place

How is the Eurozone in "heavy recession"??

Its not, now. I didn’t say it was. That’s the effect if a bunch of countries default.

Frazzled wrote:
Remember if its someone else its a recession. If its you it’s a depression.

I don't know what that means.

Understandable. That’s an Americanism. It means if its happening to someone else its bad, but if its happening to you it’s the worst thing ever.

Yes it does. Why would highly competative industries in Northern Europe suddely become unprofitable because a tiny country can't pay its debts?

You said Italy and Spain, which are not tiny countries. If they default that puts the European financial markets in a shambles. If there are no secondary financial markets guess who gets no loans, no CP, and guess which populations suddenly can’t pull cash out of their ATM, use a debit card etc. etc.
Sound crazy? It almost happened in 2008. Nothing has changed since then.


EDIT: Will the world survive Greece? You betcha. A bunch of countries howevere and everything gets twitchy.

Frazzled wrote:
Its not, now. I didn’t say it was. That’s the effect if a bunch of countries default.

Right but this thread isn't about "a bunch of countries". It's about Greece, which isn't really important because it's so small.
I can understand why an outsider regards Europe as simply a bunch of countries, but there's a huge amount of political will in Europe that's going into making those countries pay their debts.
Greece can't default on its debts while remaining in the EU. Which, as I said, isn't important. No one cares about Greece. BUT, Italy and Spain also couldn't default without leaving the EU.
This they will never do voluntarily, or at least the mainstream parties - obviously there are fascists/communists who would withdraw, but they are fairly quiet (for the time being).
Italy and Spain basically have to sort out their deficits, or die.
Question is whether the new French president can lean on the Germans to make the European Central Bank help them out. Eurobonds would help greatly, but the Germans don't really like them, and I can't say I blame them. It'd essentially mean wealthy Northern Europe was collateral for the south's loans. But since they (or at least Italy) have a German-appointed technocracy, that's not so unreasonable.

Frazzled wrote:
You said Italy and Spain, which are not tiny countries. If they default that puts the European financial markets in a shambles. If there are no secondary financial markets guess who gets no loans, no CP, and guess which populations suddenly can’t pull cash out of their ATM, use a debit card etc. etc.
Sound crazy? It almost happened in 2008. Nothing has changed since then.

I am well aware of what happens if a large European nation were to default on its debt. There is an awesome BBC graphic here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
Italy owes €300bn to French banks. Not worth imagining what would happen if they defaulted on that...

Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

purplefood wrote:Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

Everyone seems to like Nigel Farage, turns out he was right all this time!

purplefood wrote:Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

I think everyone is pretty fond of Switzerland. Whats not to like? They're like Swiss Miss Germans but without all the shouting, bad music, and occasional continent wide freakout.

Speaking of, anyone keeping tabs on where the German Army is? Anyone checked nearby forests recently? Bueller? Anyone?

mattyrm wrote:

purplefood wrote:Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

Everyone seems to like Nigel Farage, turns out he was right all this time!

Not really, the crises(es?) in Europe have little to do with the EU/Euro.
Countries have borrowed more than they can afford and face defaulting, which will bankrupt their foreign lenders - banks, pensions, etc. This would have happened with or without the EU.
The only way it could have been prevented was if the EU had the actual power to force countries into fiscal discipline, which we will probably see in future.

Frazzled wrote:I think everyone is pretty fond of Switzerland. Whats not to like?

Their disturbing fascination with multi-tool knives.

Joey do you know where the German Army is? Has anyone noticed if the trees have been properly replanted on the Champse Elysse? They do so like marching in the shade.

Joey wrote:Not really, the crises(es?) in Europe have little to do with the EU/Euro.

Actually I think they more or less boil down to monetary union without fiscal union.

Within the US, California is in dire straits. Its deficits are growing, from a projected $9bn/yr to $16bn/yr as 'West Coast' ideology embraces business-killing eco reforms, raises taxes, and causes a general flight from Cali to Not-Cali. The Facebook IPO can't come soon enough for tax-starved California.

But it doesn't really matter because we'll just ship money over from Texas. I mean, it 'matters', but the US isn't at risk of going down, and California represents a much larger percentage of the US economy than Greece does Eurozone.

Countries have borrowed more than they can afford and face defaulting, which will bankrupt their foreign lenders - banks, pensions, etc. This would have happened with or without the EU.

Kinda yes, kinda no. Greece could not have gotten all that money that they dumped into public works from the early 2000s onwards without the EU co-signing all their credit card applications. But the real estate bubble/mortage backed securities crisis would have happened regardless.

The only way it could have been prevented was if the EU had the actual power to force countries into fiscal discipline, which we will probably see in future.

This is fiscal union, and it actually looks less likely now than ever before. This is the 'failed' part of the 'experiment'. Hollande ousting Sarkozy and being philosophically at odds with Merkel will NOT assist in fiscal union.

Actually California better not lok to the other states. We didn't bail out NY. No reason to bail out California.

sourclams wrote:
Once the German taxpayers get sick of leaving the tap flowing to pay for southern largesse the experiment ends.

Check your facts. Germany is NOT losing money, nor it is giving out because of charity or goodwill.

Go look for what's been sold to Portugal and Greece by Germany. There have been billion euro deals for, amongst other things, submarines. The fault is, essentially, the political class and their mismanagement, doing these contracts "on the knee" because the legislation allows them to not only pass it to the next government, but to be pratically imune to any judicial pursuit.

But don't say things like this as if they were true.

You've got the EFSF of 440 billion euro although I think half of that is already committed to Portugal and Ireland, of which France is 'good' for 20% and Germany bears the brunt of with 27%.

Then you have a further 500 billion euro fund from the European Stability Mechanism that comes on-line sometime mid-summer, I think, that'll act as a further safety net and no doubt also be primarily borne by Germany.

So you're right, or at least not wrong in a sense that Germany isn't suffering losses on their balance sheet, but this is absolutely German money going to stabilize (i.e. pay for) less fiscally sound countries' debts. Which is fine, unless/until those less fiscally sound countries decide not to pay their debts.

Blame whoever you want in your political hierarchy but the nuts and bolts of the arrangement for Mr. and Mrs. Schmidt is that they foot the bill for other peoples' spending. Any bets on how long that endures, especially with the EU shifting politically left-ward (away from austerity, closer to 'free candy')?

Frazzled wrote:

purplefood wrote:Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

I think everyone is pretty fond of Switzerland. Whats not to like? They're like Swiss Miss Germans but without all the shouting, bad music, and occasional continent wide freakout.

Speaking of, anyone keeping tabs on where the German Army is? Anyone checked nearby forests recently? Bueller? Anyone?

Since sarcasm is hard to spot on the Internet, I'll risk looking dumb: you do realize that Switzerland isn't in the EU, yes?

AlmightyWalrus wrote:

Frazzled wrote:

purplefood wrote:Does anyone in the EU like anyone else right now?

I think everyone is pretty fond of Switzerland. Whats not to like? They're like Swiss Miss Germans but without all the shouting, bad music, and occasional continent wide freakout.

Speaking of, anyone keeping tabs on where the German Army is? Anyone checked nearby forests recently? Bueller? Anyone?

Since sarcasm is hard to spot on the Internet, I'll risk looking dumb: you do realize that Switzerland isn't in the EU, yes?

Those Swiss, always one step ahead. Swiss chocolate anyone?

sourclams wrote:You've got the EFSF of 440 billion euro although I think half of that is already committed to Portugal and Ireland, of which France is 'good' for 20% and Germany bears the brunt of with 27%.

Then you have a further 500 billion euro fund from the European Stability Mechanism that comes on-line sometime mid-summer, I think, that'll act as a further safety net and no doubt also be primarily borne by Germany.

And? They are not going through an economic crisis, but in case Greece defaults, Portugal could follow, as well as possibly Spain. It's a double investment; they have more to lose if the countries the funds support default and leave the Euro.

sourclams wrote:So you're right, or at least not wrong in a sense that Germany isn't suffering losses on their balance sheet, but this is absolutely German money going to stabilize (i.e. pay for) less fiscally sound countries' debts. Which is fine, unless/until those less fiscally sound countries decide not to pay their debts.

I sincerely doubt that debts are placed without safeguards and warranties. In the event that there's a default I'm pretty sure there's a safe net for Germany, France and Italy.

sourclams wrote:Blame whoever you want in your political hierarchy but the nuts and bolts of the arrangement for Mr. and Mrs. Schmidt is that they foot the bill for other peoples' spending. Any bets on how long that endures, especially with the EU shifting politically left-ward (away from austerity, closer to 'free candy')?

And where did you think that debt came from? Given that Greece is on the news it's easier to come across information about some stuff.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis

Yes, it's the Guardian and quotes can be taken out of context . There are some articles at BBC news that, while interesting to read, don't cover everything.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000



- So we can have "cheap" labour in Europe?
- Cut dramatically the minimum wage from 583 euros? And, the "holiday bonus" they mention is bull. It is usually double the salary, paid on the summer and before Christmas. Instead of having 93 more euros on the wage, they paid it during the holidays, which in turn stimulates commerce, both national and international, as people see it as a bonus.


I wonder what Greece's exports to Germany were, and how much it generated.

Destrado wrote:

sourclams wrote:You've got the EFSF of 440 billion euro although I think half of that is already committed to Portugal and Ireland, of which France is 'good' for 20% and Germany bears the brunt of with 27%.

Then you have a further 500 billion euro fund from the European Stability Mechanism that comes on-line sometime mid-summer, I think, that'll act as a further safety net and no doubt also be primarily borne by Germany.

And? They are not going through an economic crisis, but in case Greece defaults, Portugal could follow, as well as possibly Spain. It's a double investment; they have more to lose if the countries the funds support default and leave the Euro.

sourclams wrote:So you're right, or at least not wrong in a sense that Germany isn't suffering losses on their balance sheet, but this is absolutely German money going to stabilize (i.e. pay for) less fiscally sound countries' debts. Which is fine, unless/until those less fiscally sound countries decide not to pay their debts.

I sincerely doubt that debts are placed without safeguards and warranties. In the event that there's a default I'm pretty sure there's a safe net for Germany, France and Italy.

sourclams wrote:Blame whoever you want in your political hierarchy but the nuts and bolts of the arrangement for Mr. and Mrs. Schmidt is that they foot the bill for other peoples' spending. Any bets on how long that endures, especially with the EU shifting politically left-ward (away from austerity, closer to 'free candy')?

And where did you think that debt came from? Given that Greece is on the news it's easier to come across information about some stuff.

Spoiler:

"Just under 15% of Germany's total arms exports are made to Greece, its biggest market in Europe," , "France is not far behind. Some 10% of its total arms sales go to Greece",

"Since the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus, Greece has spent an estimated €216bn on armaments, although I am 100% certain that in absolute terms its defence expenditure is much greater than official documents would show due to the so-called secret funds the state has access to," said Katerina Tsoukala, a Brussels-based security expert."

"Deputy prime minister Theodore Pangalos publicly rued the fact that Athens was spending so much money on arms, exclaiming during a visit by the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, that Greece was being "forced to buy weapons we do not need".

No other area has contributed as heavily to the country's debt mountain. If Athens had cut defence spending to levels similar to other EU states over the past decade, economists claim it would have saved around €150bn – more than its last bailout. Instead, Greece dedicates up to €7bn a year to military expenditure – down from a high of €10bn in 2009."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/19/greece-military-spending-debt-crisis

Yes, it's the Guardian and quotes can be taken out of context . There are some articles at BBC news that, while interesting to read, don't cover everything.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000

Spoiler:

also want Greece to act to make its economy more competitive, principally by cutting the cost of doing business in Greece.

The government was told to make its labour markets more flexible, to cut dramatically the minimum wage and to scrap a habit of paying a "holiday bonus" equal to one or two months' extra pay.

- So we can have "cheap" labour in Europe?
- Cut dramatically the minimum wage from 583 euros? And, the "holiday bonus" they mention is bull. It is usually double the salary, paid on the summer and before Christmas. Instead of having 93 more euros on the wage, they paid it during the holidays, which in turn stimulates commerce, both national and international, as people see it as a bonus.


I wonder what Greece's exports to Germany were, and how much it generated.

And this my fellow Dakkanites, is how most people in my country (and probably in Greece as well), think!

"Its not our fault, honestly! Its all those dirty politicians that we continuously elected for government despite all the warnings that they were overspending! Or its the fault of the people that are lending us money, because they will make a profit from it! (unless we decide not to pay in which case they are pretty much screwed holding all that debt)(and most left parties in my country are advocating just this: that we don't pay all of our debt)"

There is a saying that goes something like: "Socialism ends when other peoples money runs out"... The European left has run out of money, incredibly they are still demanding other people to foot the bills for their "acquired rights"!

PhantomViper wrote:And this my fellow Dakkanites, is how most people in my country (and probably in Greece as well), think!

We're now Dakkanauts

PhantomViper wrote:"Its not our fault, honestly! Its all those dirty politicians that we continuously elected for government despite all the warnings that they were overspending! Or its the fault of the people that are lending us money, because they will make a profit from it! (unless we decide not to pay in which case they are pretty much screwed holding all that debt)(and most left parties in my country are advocating just this: that we don't pay all of our debt)"

There is a saying that goes something like: "Socialism ends when other peoples money runs out"... The European left has run out of money, incredibly they are still demanding other people to foot the bills for their "acquired rights"!

The problem, mainly in Portugal, is that it's always PSD (Social-democrats) or PS (Socialists) that get elected, mainly thanks to an aged population that does not have the capacity to vote differently from what they've been taught post-25 April.

It is the politicians' fault, of course up to a part ; the class is not so much about ruling as it is about getting a golden trampolin to another cargo in one or several companies they favoured during their stay in power. This from the President of the Republic down to the lowliest minister or under-secretary. After this, I hope, there will be tighter control over what deals the state can or cannot agree to; no long-term debts from one government to another, and judicial persecution to those responsible for mis-management of public funds. But I do think that the debt must be paid off, even thought there are some muddy cases in there.

Democracy, someone said, is the most iniquitous of tyrannys, as there is no greater strength than that of numbers.

Destrado wrote:
The problem, mainly in Portugal, is that it's always PSD (Social-democrats) or PS (Socialists) that get elected, mainly thanks to an aged population that does not have the capacity to vote differently from what they've been taught post-25 April.

It is the politicians' fault, of course up to a part ; the class is not so much about ruling as it is about getting a golden trampolin to another cargo in one or several companies they favoured during their stay in power. This from the President of the Republic down to the lowliest minister or under-secretary. After this, I hope, there will be tighter control over what deals the state can or cannot agree to; no long-term debts from one government to another, and judicial persecution to those responsible for mis-management of public funds. But I do think that the debt must be paid off, even thought there are some muddy cases in there.

No, don't try and spread the blame for this, remember what Durão Barroso said when he was elected? That the country was bankrupt even though we were experiencing some mild growth? He was laughed out of office and the PSD lost the elections less than two years afterwards because "the people" didn't wan't to believe that!

Remember what happened to Manuela Ferreira Leite in the last elections previous to these when she warned that we where badly in debt and needed some urgent economic measures? She was ridiculed and called an alarmist by all the pundits and again the PSD lost the elections for speaking the truth!

This hell hole of a country was ruled 18 of the last 20 years by the Socialists! They were the ones that made all those PPPs that we will have to pay until 2070 to the tune of 48 BILLION euros (!!!), they were the ones that bloated the government to the state it reached today (Portugal has the highest percentage of civil servants out of the whole EU and their job contracts are guaranteed by our constitution, so they can't be fired... ever!), they were the ones that instituted the RSI where people are paid to sit at home and not work!

The Socialists were the ones that, right up to the moment that they lost the last elections, were fighting tooth and nails for the building of a new international airport and a damn TGV rail system! Even though the country had already requested financial assistance they were still determined to milk it for all it was worth!

No, don't blame this one on the PSD, the Socialists and everyone that voted for them in these past 20 years because they were giving away free candy, are the only ones responsible for the state we are today. Too bad that the bill for all that "free" candy has just arrived!

I'm not solely blaming PSD, I actually think that Passos Coelho is doing a fine job in some areas, and the former Socialist goverments did a lot of shady real estate schemes (the International airport was supposed to be built on land owned by... Mário Soares ), the TGV was an insane project, as were the football stadiums (Leiria?).

I blame pratically all the political parties, to greater or lesser extent, and most, if not all, members of the parlament.

And, to top it off, I find that the main PS branch is (more than most) extremely hypocritical, given José Socrates' political agenda (but this is best discussed over a cup of coffee).