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Destrado wrote:I sincerely doubt that debts are placed without safeguards and warranties. In the event that there's a default I'm pretty sure there's a safe net for Germany, France and Italy.

Point it out to me and I'll believe it.

Currently (which means 3-5 years), Greece "is going to" default and go back to the drachma, which will be brutally devalued.

Suddenly Greece looks pretty cheap as a tourism destination, an ag exporter, and a source of some limited manufacturing.

Commodity prices skyrocket, but the renewed interest in key economic sectors can offset--and as long as you're buying commodities in Euro or Dollar or not-Drachma, it's irrelevant, favoring investment.

Greece economy turns around, probably rather quickly given its small size overall. Good times!

Portugal and Spain, who are still probably under pretty nasty austerity plans and high unemployment look at Zorba with his disgustingly cheap currency enjoying life.

Politcal pressure mounts on the technocrats and political elite to do the exact same thing.

"..."

A lot of unstable, turbulent times, but end result is a leaner meaner 'northern' EU, Southern economies devalue their way out of debt like eating pancakes after a bad hangover, and the world, save for the EU 'experiment', is left more or less intact.

Makes sense to me.

3-5 years? Think 3-5 weeks and you're more accurate.

Timeline for default, devaluation, rebound.

sourclams wrote:Timeline for default, devaluation, rebound.

gotcha


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The European Central Bank has stopped providing liquidity to some Greek banks as they have not been successfully recapitalized, the ECB said on Wednesday, confirming news earlier reported exclusively by Reuters.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/16/us-ecb-greece-banks-idUSBRE84F0SN20120516

As anyone looked at the positive aspects, of the Greek economy's
effect on the euro.?
All this debt is holding the value of the euro down, making German industry even more competitive.

Just watched a piece on Greece on BBC's This Week. Suicide rates in Greece are up 45%, doctors have been treating people for eating rotten food they are getting out of bins, parents are giving their children away to orphanages. Aid agencies who normally work in Uganda are in Athens handing out medicine and food parcels. The people have not seen any tangible results from austerity and have little faith in their politicians. Seems a pretty horrible situation all round.

Joey wrote:
Why would they break the Euro? The strength of the Euro is in the high-tech economies of Germany/France/Netherands/Belgium/Denmark/northern Italy. A machine tools factory in Hannover isn't going to go bust because Greece has left the Euro.

Denmark doesn't have Euro's. Never did. Jus' sayin'.

On a personal note. I really, really don't want the euro to disappear and go back to the gulden. The introduction of the euro cost us an arm and a leg, as every single merchant and shop used the conversion as an excuse to raise prices. The return will only do the same.

dæl wrote:Just watched a piece on Greece on BBC's This Week. Suicide rates in Greece are up 45%, doctors have been treating people for eating rotten food they are getting out of bins, parents are giving their children away to orphanages. Aid agencies who normally work in Uganda are in Athens handing out medicine and food parcels. The people have not seen any tangible results from austerity and have little faith in their politicians. Seems a pretty horrible situation all round.

Maybe if they stopped calling general strikes and rioting at the drop of a hat and actually worked for a little bit things wouldn't be so bad... But I guess I would also be pretty upset if someone came over here and got rid of my cosy 4 day work week and 50 year retirement with everything paid... oh wait!

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:Just watched a piece on Greece on BBC's This Week. Suicide rates in Greece are up 45%, doctors have been treating people for eating rotten food they are getting out of bins, parents are giving their children away to orphanages. Aid agencies who normally work in Uganda are in Athens handing out medicine and food parcels. The people have not seen any tangible results from austerity and have little faith in their politicians. Seems a pretty horrible situation all round.

Maybe if they stopped calling general strikes and rioting at the drop of a hat and actually worked for a little bit things wouldn't be so bad... But I guess I would also be pretty upset if someone came over here and got rid of my cosy 4 day work week and 50 year retirement with everything paid... oh wait!

And hit you with a massive tax hike accompanied with a 50% wage cut. I'm pretty sure capitalism relies on people having disposable income with which they can buy and consume goods.

dæl wrote:

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:Just watched a piece on Greece on BBC's This Week. Suicide rates in Greece are up 45%, doctors have been treating people for eating rotten food they are getting out of bins, parents are giving their children away to orphanages. Aid agencies who normally work in Uganda are in Athens handing out medicine and food parcels. The people have not seen any tangible results from austerity and have little faith in their politicians. Seems a pretty horrible situation all round.

Maybe if they stopped calling general strikes and rioting at the drop of a hat and actually worked for a little bit things wouldn't be so bad... But I guess I would also be pretty upset if someone came over here and got rid of my cosy 4 day work week and 50 year retirement with everything paid... oh wait!

And hit you with a massive tax hike accompanied with a 50% wage cut. I'm pretty sure capitalism relies on people having disposable income with which they can buy and consume goods.

You know that that happened over here as well right? And yet, despite all the bankruptcies being filled (both by companies and by individuals), we don't have people killing themselves in droves, eating rotting food to survive or giving away their kids...

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:Just watched a piece on Greece on BBC's This Week. Suicide rates in Greece are up 45%, doctors have been treating people for eating rotten food they are getting out of bins, parents are giving their children away to orphanages. Aid agencies who normally work in Uganda are in Athens handing out medicine and food parcels. The people have not seen any tangible results from austerity and have little faith in their politicians. Seems a pretty horrible situation all round.

Maybe if they stopped calling general strikes and rioting at the drop of a hat and actually worked for a little bit things wouldn't be so bad... But I guess I would also be pretty upset if someone came over here and got rid of my cosy 4 day work week and 50 year retirement with everything paid... oh wait!

And hit you with a massive tax hike accompanied with a 50% wage cut. I'm pretty sure capitalism relies on people having disposable income with which they can buy and consume goods.

You know that that happened over here as well right? And yet, despite all the bankruptcies being filled (both by companies and by individuals), we don't have people killing themselves in droves, eating rotting food to survive or giving away their kids...

I'm sorry to hear you guys have had such a massive fall of income. Has your economy recovered by using austerity measures? I just feel the whole ideology of austerity seems counter-productive and doomed to fail.

The lack of suicides may have something to do with the availability of heroin. That lovely lovely heroin

dæl wrote:
I'm sorry to hear you guys have had such a massive fall of income. Has your economy recovered by using austerity measures? I just feel the whole ideology of austerity seems counter-productive and doomed to fail.

Our economy hasn't recovered. But we are still only less than 1 year into the measures and the recession hasn't been as bad as people predicted.

Fact is, you can't run a country in constant debt. Further more, you surely can't run a country in constant debt when the people that are paying for your lifestyle are working allot harder than you and don't have nearly the same benefits as you have.

Greeks had full paid retirements at 50 (plus around 250 professions classified as "high stress" that could retire even before that, including hairdressers), 4 workdays each week, jeebus only knows how many paid vacation days, etc and to top it all of, only about 50% of them ever paid taxes! They lied in their reports to the UE, they falsified deficit reports to get into the Euro and to escape sanctions...

Now they've seen half their debt dropped and still they can't decide on a freaking government without even more riots and strikes and to top it all of, even their banks can't seem to abide by simple BCE regulations!

They should have been kicked out of the Euro and the UE the minute that these news came out and the damage to the remaining countries would have been much lower than it will be when they inevitably drop out!

I'm going to drop the insinuation that we are apparently a people composed mostly of heroin-addicts for some reason...

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:
I'm sorry to hear you guys have had such a massive fall of income. Has your economy recovered by using austerity measures? I just feel the whole ideology of austerity seems counter-productive and doomed to fail.

Our economy hasn't recovered. But we are still only less than 1 year into the measures and the recession hasn't been as bad as people predicted.

Fact is, you can't run a country in constant debt. Further more, you surely can't run a country in constant debt when the people that are paying for your lifestyle are working allot harder than you and don't have nearly the same benefits as you have.

Greeks had full paid retirements at 50 (plus around 250 professions classified as "high stress" that could retire even before that, including hairdressers), 4 workdays each week, jeebus only knows how many paid vacation days, etc and to top it all of, only about 50% of them ever paid taxes! They lied in their reports to the UE, they falsified deficit reports to get into the Euro and to escape sanctions...

Now they've seen half their debt dropped and still they can't decide on a freaking government without even more riots and strikes and to top it all of, even their banks can't seem to abide by simple BCE regulations!

They should have been kicked out of the Euro and the UE the minute that these news came out and the damage to the remaining countries would have been much lower than it will be when they inevitably drop out!

I'm going to drop the insinuation that we are apparently a people composed mostly of heroin-addicts for some reason...

Agree the greeks were playing a losing game for years and should never have been allowed in the single currency (although someone should really have checked those figures). For real high stress jobs a retirement age of 50 seems ok, certainly not earlier and certainly not hairdressers. I've heard an argument that rather than greece leaving the euro, perhaps it should be germany, this might stabalise the market, not sure I agree.

The herion comment was meant in jest regarding the rather progressive laws over there with regards possession and use. There was no offence intended, sorry.

dæl wrote:
Agree the greeks were playing a losing game for years and should never have been allowed in the single currency (although someone should really have checked those figures). For real high stress jobs a retirement age of 50 seems ok, certainly not earlier and certainly not hairdressers. I've heard an argument that rather than greece leaving the euro, perhaps it should be germany, this might stabalise the market, not sure I agree.

Can't argue with you on that one...

As for Germany leaving the Euro, that would be disastrous for everyone involved. The "poorer" countries would loose the biggest contributor to the funds and Germany needs the Euro to keep their currency at a lower level than it would be otherwise.

dæl wrote:
The herion comment was meant in jest regarding the rather progressive laws over there with regards possession and use. There was no offence intended, sorry.

Punish the dealer, not the consumer. Can't say that I fully agree with this policy, but then again I never had much sympathy for people that ruin their own lives and the lives of those around them through their choices.

Joey wrote:
The economy of greece is smaller than the economy of Minasota.

It's spelled Minnesota - google is your friend; and we are actually a bit behind Greece, economically. We are waaaay ahead in hot blondes though. And most likely hot Asians and Africans. (We have a huge Hmong and Somali population.)


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dæl wrote:

Fact is, you can't run a country in constant debt.

unless you got all the nukes.

PhantomViper wrote:
Punish the dealer, not the consumer. Can't say that I fully agree with this policy, but then again I never had much sympathy for people that ruin their own lives and the lives of those around them through their choices.

I kind of think that if adequately and honestly educated on the subject its personal choice, but I can't really have a libertarian view on this and still support a national health service, so I'm undecided (cannabis however, should be legal and massively taxed) . I'm given to understand since the change in law in Portugal there's been a reduction in drug related crime.


@Bromsy - I never said that btw, twas PhantomViper.

We seem to think that infinite growth is possible, so why not infinite debt. The whole fractal reserve system relies on money that doesn't exist anyway.

dæl wrote:
I kind of think that if adequately and honestly educated on the subject its personal choice, but I can't really have a libertarian view on this and still support a national health service, so I'm undecided (cannabis however, should be legal and massively taxed) . I'm given to understand since the change in law in Portugal there's been a reduction in drug related crime.

Yes, cannabis should be legalized.

No idea if the number of drug related crimes really have dropped, apart from those that have been decriminalized that is.

The US is to offer Europe prescriptions to stimulate growth and stave off further turmoil in the eurozone.

At the G8 meeting starting tonight, Barack Obama is expected to reiterate the view that the German Chancellor Angela Merkel's austerity-only approach must be counter-balanced with some stimulus spending. As the G8 leaders discuss "actions" to restore growth in the EU, Mr Obama will remind them of his own record of signing an $862bn stimulus package in 2009 when the US was tilting into a depression.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/cameron-to-tell-merkel-she-is-the-only-person-who-can-save-the-euro-7763996.html

PhantomViper wrote:

dæl wrote:
I'm sorry to hear you guys have had such a massive fall of income. Has your economy recovered by using austerity measures? I just feel the whole ideology of austerity seems counter-productive and doomed to fail.

Our economy hasn't recovered. But we are still only less than 1 year into the measures and the recession hasn't been as bad as people predicted.

Fact is, you can't run a country in constant debt. Further more, you surely can't run a country in constant debt when the people that are paying for your lifestyle are working allot harder than you and don't have nearly the same benefits as you have.

Greeks had full paid retirements at 50 (plus around 250 professions classified as "high stress" that could retire even before that, including hairdressers), 4 workdays each week, jeebus only knows how many paid vacation days, etc and to top it all of, only about 50% of them ever paid taxes! They lied in their reports to the UE, they falsified deficit reports to get into the Euro and to escape sanctions...

Now they've seen half their debt dropped and still they can't decide on a freaking government without even more riots and strikes and to top it all of, even their banks can't seem to abide by simple BCE regulations!

They should have been kicked out of the Euro and the UE the minute that these news came out and the damage to the remaining countries would have been much lower than it will be when they inevitably drop out!
..

Things are so stressful in Germany, that your doctors can prescribe 2 weeks paid holiday by the sea. So yes they're hard done too

Seems the Greeks are realising it is between losing the Euro and austerity measures, and austerity is the lesser of two evils.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greece-poll-boosts-austerity-politicians-7767043.html