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It is probably going to vary between companies to be honest. Mantic seem to have hit the mark with both of their's previously - now they are starting a new one (which seems a lot more organised than either previous effort) I would be very surprised if they missed their delivery promises by a significant margin.

 warboss wrote:
Interesting.. thanks for the recap. 2-4 projects on time out of 23 doesn't sound like a very optimistic ratio then.

What I've found is that the bigger the company backing it is the more likely it will ship on time.

A lot of the kickstarters I've backed have been small time, people working out of their house, and they've either:
A.) honestly misjudged the actual time it would take to complete it, due to inexperience dealing in that quantity
or
B.) there was a production delay because the additional stretch goals promised during the kickstarter were not factored into the original estimates for time.

I've never had anyone bail on me and not deliver.
A month or two late seems common,

Zpocalypse gets the reward for most delay, for almost 6 months after promised, but the final product we received was much better than the one originally planned.

I think it really depends on the funding received, the three KS's I've backed that have seen major delays were because the funding received allowed them to do that much more.

The first one was the Banner Saga, where unlike Obsidian, or inXile, who have full staff and in both cases regularly handle big industry gigs, Stoic has three guys... in what's essentially a shed. They got the backer bonus stuff out, on time, on target and took all that money and really put it in to the game, for them receiving seven times the funding they asked for meant they had seven times as much work to do, so I don't mind that it's taking a little longer.

Similar deal with the Serpent's Tongue TCG, they got 180,000 when they wanted 18k, so they went back to the drawing board and said "We can make this so much more" and have done so admirably. The core of what we all got excited about is there, a TCG/RPG with a very unique core mechanic, killer art and a fantastic world built around it, but they've significantly upped the stakes. Technically it's gonna be shipping a year late, but they kept us in the loop and again I don't mind.

Dreamforge hasn't been too late yet, Phase 2 was supposed to be shipping by now, but most of the issues they've had has been on the manufacturer's end (Chinese New Year, etc) and like many other minis kickstarters was a victim of it's own success and decided to do a lot and get more out there instead of staying limited to what they started with. Mark's got his nose to the grinder on the designs and building his baby, as well as the product we purchased. Again the delays bite, I want my plastic crack! I'm freaking ecstatic with the stuff I've received from DFG so far and I'm very excited to get the rest when they come.