Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

The thing I don't get about those Jetseers is you waste two perfectly good potential buffs they give joined units, in ignores cover, and counter attack/full BS overwatch. Is gutting the arguably best tree for Farseers worth it? For what?

Halfpast_Yellow wrote:
The thing I don't get about those Jetseers is you waste two perfectly good potential buffs they give joined units, in ignores cover, and counter attack/full BS overwatch. Is gutting the arguably best tree for Farseers worth it? For what?

Normally I run a more aggressive LaughingJetSeer with Guide (Unless I get Doom/Fortune), Psychic Shriek + 1 Telepathy power. This has proven to be an excellent disruption unit that's capable of doing a lot of damage whilst being extremely resilient making it almost impossible to get Slay the Warlord unless one has access to Ignores Cover weaponry.

She fits into my Mechdar list well as she is mobile, durable against shooting and doesn't really need to interact with the rest of the force to perform well.

I also disagree that Divination is the best tree for Farseers - usually I will only bother with Prescience or Misfortune (if I get it). Ignores Cover is nice but usually unnecessary and Foreboding is far too situational to come in handy in a shooting edition of the game.

Iranna.

 Godless-Mimicry wrote:

You are preaching a tactic to get a specific power, and then saying that not being guaranteed to get that power is actually an advantage; and you call me confused Furthermore you have made this claim and then not explained it or backed it up. To follow up, you have made a stab at me saying I probably haven't done the math, yet I don't see your math anywhere either.

There are mathematical concepts that are really, really hard to explain over the internet to someone who just isn't very comfortable with math. You're right that I didn't show my work, but it's not very difficult work and it was bizarre for you to dismiss the claim by saying that the Farseer "has no guarantee of getting that power". This reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works.

But fine, as it happens I have some numbers handy. If you have only one model in Reserves, and it must go in Reserves, the two look almost identical in terms of your chances for getting what you want in turn 2. The Autarch offers a 83.3% chance of getting it on in turn 2 and a .5 chance of delaying it. A Farseer that commits to going all-out for Scrier's Gaze has only an 80.25% chance of getting it on in turn 2 and a 50.31% chance of delaying it. The Autarch is slightly better at this because he's more likely to get something on or delay something in turn 3 as well.

Likewise if you have 4 units in Reserves, it's pretty much a wash. With the Autarch, you have a 48% chance of getting them all in on Turn 2, a 39% chance of missing 1, and a 12% chance of missing 2 (2% of missing 3). Overall with the Farseer, you have a 50% chance of getting them all in on Turn 2, a 27% chance of missing 1, and a 16% chance of missing 2 (5% of missing 3). The Autarch is a bit more likely to get a 3/1 split, but the differences here are pretty minor.

And lumping together all games like this is actually hiding a major advantage that the Farseer has. Those probabilities above for the Farseer take into account that there's only a 50/50 chance of getting Scrier's Gaze. But when you do get it, you know this before you even deploy and before you even send units to Reserves. So you can choose to take more advantage of it when you do roll it, and you can plan your deployment and turn 1 movement around an expectation of having significantly more reliable Reserves rolls than the Autarch can provide. Knowledge is power, etc. etc. When you don't roll it, you can choose not to use Reserves as heavily and know that you can't count as much on getting lots of things on in turn 2.

I attempted to explain this concept in my last post. Essentially, the Farseer having to roll for Scrier's Gaze before deployment rather than at the top of turn 2 is a bit like your Autarch being able to roll for Reserves before deployment instead of at the top of turn 2. It would be bizarre to say that this is worse than the actual Autarch rules because you're not guaranteed an advantage when turn 2 rolls around. The regular Autarch doesn't guarantee such an advantage. The regular Autarch only gives you a chance at a better result, but the Farseer gives you a very similar chance and lets you know how it's going to turn out long enough beforehand that you can actually do something with that information (up to choosing to not even risk the un-buffed roll). The Farseer is pretty much just a better choice for Reserves manipulation. And 2 Farseers can take enough rolls on Divination between them to be better than an Autarch without making a big sacrifice, because it's really easy to justify taking at least 1 roll on Divination each.

And what's to think through? You are advocating rolling all three dice on Divination, therefore no dice on Runes of Fate, and thus you have no chance whatsoever of getting Fortune and/or Doom, the two powers you really want in all situations. What's confusing about that?

Nothing's confusing about that, to me at least. I agree that often it will be better to not have your Farseer go all-out for Scrier's Gaze. You're the one who seems to think that this is a reason to take an Autarch for Reserves manipulation instead of a Farseer. Again, there's a basic math concept you seem to be missing here. Transitivity, this time. I was arguing that a Farseer who does go all-out for Scrier's Gaze is better than a non-CC focused Autarch in basically every list, by virtue of the fact that this Farseer does as good or better of a job as a Reserves manipulator and is more useful otherwise than the Autarch's ranged options. You objected. One of your objections was, essentially, that there are even better uses for a Farseer. But this makes absolutely no sense as an objection - it provides even more reason to take a Farseer over an Autarch. If 3 Div Farseer > ranged Autarch, and Fate Farseer > 3 Div Farseer, then Fate Farseer > ranged Autarch. Right? Especially since you don't have to decide which kind of Farseer you're using until you see the enemy's list.

pantsonhead wrote:
There are mathematical concepts that are really, really hard to explain over the internet to someone who just isn't very comfortable with math. You're right that I didn't show my work, but it's not very difficult work and it was bizarre for you to dismiss the claim by saying that the Farseer "has no guarantee of getting that power". This reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works.

I'm impressed that you know so much about me personally by one post on the internet that just happened to be disagreeing with you. I'm equally impressed that disagreeing with you automatically makes people bad with math. Gee, you're are some guy for one guy.

Seriously though, I don't get how you think you get off with calling people bad at math, and then call anything less than 100% a guarantee. Is the chance of getting Scrier's Gaze 100%? No, it's not, so no guarantee. As for me apparently being so bad at math just 'cause you say so, I could tell you in depth about how I used to be a math teacher, but why bother with an online pissing contest; I can make my argument without having to make baseless accusations about a person's personal abilities, especially if they are abilities I am neglecting to present fully myself.

As for the rest of your post, it summarizes as, "when everything goes my way, I come out on top sometimes", which isn't very convincing. However great job on putting words in my mouth; I never once said you should take an Autarch solely for reserves manipulation, all I did was dispute your initial claims about the Divination Farseer and mentioned what the Autarch has 100% of the time that the Farseer doesn't, as well as the reasons why I thought it was a waste of a Farseer. Sorry that simply disagreeing with you upset you so much, but don't worry, I won't make the mistake of trying to converse with you again, as there are easier things for me to do if I want to get insulted for simply having an opinion. Ignored.

While the area between spirited debate and becoming personal is a grey one--let's keep our perspective on what we're discussing--as the content of this thread is skirting on the wrong end of that grey spectrum. Thanks.

I'll say...I had no idea this will spark such a heated debate.

 Araenion wrote:
I'll say...I had no idea this will spark such a heated debate.

You have so much more to look forward to on Dakka!

This was rather light-hearted compared to some other things I've seen!

Iranna.

 Godless-Mimicry wrote:

I'm impressed that you know so much about me personally by one post on the internet that just happened to be disagreeing with you. I'm equally impressed that disagreeing with you automatically makes people bad with math. Gee, you're are some guy for one guy.

Seriously though, I don't get how you think you get off with calling people bad at math, and then call anything less than 100% a guarantee. Is the chance of getting Scrier's Gaze 100%? No, it's not, so no guarantee. As for me apparently being so bad at math just 'cause you say so, I could tell you in depth about how I used to be a math teacher, but why bother with an online pissing contest; I can make my argument without having to make baseless accusations about a person's personal abilities, especially if they are abilities I am neglecting to present fully myself.

As for the rest of your post, it summarizes as, "when everything goes my way, I come out on top sometimes", which isn't very convincing. However great job on putting words in my mouth; I never once said you should take an Autarch solely for reserves manipulation, all I did was dispute your initial claims about the Divination Farseer and mentioned what the Autarch has 100% of the time that the Farseer doesn't, as well as the reasons why I thought it was a waste of a Farseer. Sorry that simply disagreeing with you upset you so much, but don't worry, I won't make the mistake of trying to converse with you again, as there are easier things for me to do if I want to get insulted for simply having an opinion. Ignored.

For the record, I nowhere said that something "less than 100% is a guarantee". I'm not sure where this is coming from. To quote my last post, "It would be bizarre to say that this is worse than the actual Autarch rules because you're not guaranteed an advantage when turn 2 rolls around. The regular Autarch doesn't guarantee such an advantage." So, I said the opposite. The Farseer does not guarantee your Reserves. But it's important to realize that the Autarch doesn't either - this is just an objective misunderstanding of probability. I go on to try to address this common misconception that some random result is mysteriously more reliable in some way if it is set closer in time to when it takes effect or if you get to roll lots of dice instead of a few. This is why I use the thought experiment of an Autarch allowing you to roll for Reserves before you deploy, which is relevantly similar to what a Farseer does. Perhaps this misconception is fueled by a faulty view of what the law of large numbers entails. But we can look to the actual distribution of results (those numbers I gave in my last post) to see that that's not mattering much here. Edit: Oh... Are you reading "it would be bizarre to say that this is worse..." as "It would be bizarre to say that this is worse than the actual Autarch rules because the actual Autarch rules don't guarantee an advantage when turn 2 rolls around. The regular Autarch doesn't guarantee such an advantage."? I mean "It would be bizarre to say that this is worse than the actual Autarch rules because the hypothetical pre-rolling doesn't guarantee an advantage when turn 2 rolls around. The regular Autarch doesn't guarantee such an advantage either." Better?

I'm just plain confused by the characterization of my post as "when everything goes my way, I come out on top sometimes". I am completely at a loss to explain how someone could get that from what I wrote and would appreciate suggestions that would help me avoid creating that sort of misconception in the future. Hopefully you reply, but, if not, I ask the thread at large: what should I have said instead to prevent this miscommunication? I gave the distribution of results for the Autarch and Farseer. I was even explicit that the distribution accounts for the chance of failing to roll Scrier's Gaze. I discuss a strategy for minimizing the downside risk by taking multiple Farseers. Or do I just toss this into the big bucket of evidence for my earlier claim that it can be really hard to explain mathematical concepts over the internet?

If you would care to respond, I'd be very eager to hear this argument of yours, or even just a clarification of what point you were actually trying to make. Because now I really have no idea what you've been trying to do here.

To summarize the discussion so far (correct me if I get something materially wrong):

I opened with a post claiming that "Generally speaking, any Autarch that isn't all about getting into CC is going to be worse than a Farseer in just about every list." That was the first sentence, and I go on to explain that I mean that this is because an Autarch doesn't offer a whole lot of combat ability at range and because a Farseer can do a comparable job of helping you with Reserves if that's what you're interested in.

You reply in one sentence with: "Except the Farseer doesn't get a Fusion Gun, has no guarantee of getting that power, and if he even attempts to do what you have suggested he has given up all hope of Fortune and Doom." I interpreted this as disagreement with my claim, but you seem to be denying now that that's how you meant it. I thought you were arguing with the first clause that the Autarch brings something special to the table in ranged firepower, and with the other two that the Farseer is not as useful for helping with Reserves rolls. What did you mean here if not that?

So I responded by conceding that the Autarch edges out the Farseer in shooting in a pretty small window in particular circumstances. I also gave brief explanations as to why the other two objections are misguided.

I have a hard time understanding your next post. I now have absolutely no idea what you were trying to do with the "Fortune and Doom" objection, since apparently you didn't intend it to be a reason to take an Autarch over a Farseer for Reserves manipulation? I don't understand why you thought I disagreed that a Farseer might often want to try for Fortune or Doom, or why that's a problem for my argument. You expressed confusion about my claim that the Farseer is actually advantaged by the way his ability to manipulate Reserves differs from the Autarch's (again, I urge you to do the math for yourself if you're not convinced). There's not really a valid argument anywhere in here; it's a lengthy argument from incredulity.

I responded with the math that you'd requested. Then you ignored that and got indignant and started offering your credentials. So, once more, can you please try to clearly communicate your position and why you disagree with what I've said?

 AgeOfEgos wrote:
While the area between spirited debate and becoming personal is a grey one--let's keep our perspective on what we're discussing--as the content of this thread is skirting on the wrong end of that grey spectrum. Thanks.

Apologies for my part. I just don't appreciate when a poster insults me right off the bat just for disagreeing with them, so it can take a bit of settling in to chin up and ignore them.

Your points made perfect sense to me before and without math pantsonhead, and I'm not a math teacher or student.

Some people just don't want to have a discussion, but drive by comment without thinking much and when they're shown they missed or overlooked a fundamental, find it more 'face saving' to get all disingenuous and/or butthurt about it instead of just saying 'Oh I see/understand now'. It's the internet.

It's pretty obvious the Autarch only changes die results of 2 to 3 if you wanted a unit on, and 3 to 2 if you want to keep it off. While he may do that '100% of the time', he does nothing for rolls of 1, 4, 5 and 6, so he's not giving you much control overall after all. Compared to the Divination Farseer who has his power 50% of the time, but it's far more potent control when you have it, and you know you have it or not before you have to decide non-compulsory reserves.

I don't need to see the complicated probability math shown behind that concept, I just need someone who can do that math to explain the concept and outcome to me. Thanks.

Autarchs are great. The ability to influence reserves is HUGE for my force.

Personally, i have found that the Ulnorithi Rifle Combined with Jetbike, las lance and lasblaster works very well

I was having a mess about in my first game after the codex came out.

I pimped my Autarch out with Warp Jump Pack, Banshee mask, fusion gun, reaper launcher and Shard of Anaris (replaced the Shuriken pistol.........not sure if I can do that but hey, it says a weapon)

Fisrt game went really well, I took him with a squad of spiders, exrach with spinneret rifle and ruined a dev squad. Split him off next turn and went HQ hunting, managed to take two out before succumbing to mass fire.

2nd game, I got a drop pod landing right behind me in his turn one, got flamed twice then rapid fire bolters saw off all but two of the squad, unfortunately Exarch and Autarch were both wiped out, so swings and roundabouts really.

Just thought I'd mention it, as its different to the Loltarch build (probs not as effective though haha)

Gapow wrote:
I was having a mess about in my first game after the codex came out.

I pimped my Autarch out with Warp Jump Pack, Banshee mask, fusion gun, reaper launcher and Shard of Anaris (replaced the Shuriken pistol.........not sure if I can do that but hey, it says a weapon)

Fisrt game went really well, I took him with a squad of spiders, exrach with spinneret rifle and ruined a dev squad. Split him off next turn and went HQ hunting, managed to take two out before succumbing to mass fire.

2nd game, I got a drop pod landing right behind me in his turn one, got flamed twice then rapid fire bolters saw off all but two of the squad, unfortunately Exarch and Autarch were both wiped out, so swings and roundabouts really.

Just thought I'd mention it, as its different to the Loltarch build (probs not as effective though haha)

There is a player in a few of Jy2's battle reports, GTKA I think is his name, that uses a similar build. I can see the appeal alright of making your Spiders Fearless.