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The funny part about all of this is that for this problem the result is equal to ML/6...we are seriously all nerds to the highest order.

I don't know why I didn't think of tarpitting them. I guess am still to used to 5th were that did not work to well. I will try this next game thank you.
as for checking his dice I have been playing this guy for about ten years and he has always had good dice karma it can be annoying at times.

Yeah, some people just are like that. I have a regular opponent who will always make his saving throws, even nine or ten in a row without fail. He then proceeds to miss his entire shooting phase using the exact same dice.

My wife is like that,

Doesn't matter what game, or whose dice. She always rolls well.

Annoying when playing 40K against her, but hugely beneficial when she's rolling for stuff on the party's side in Pathfinder or whatever...

The biggest thing with tarpitting is that you have to make sure that your unit *will not run*. For large units of Orks that's normally not a problem as they'll take ages to drop under 10 models from combat with one MC alone... *but* factor in any shooting damage they take on the way in and the possibility of other units charging in to break the MC free (not unlikely with Daemons and Nids), and you've got a real problem in keeping that unit alive.

Unfortunately, you don't really have a way around this beyond directing attacks against fresh attackers. See if it works, your opponent may not be savvy enough to throw the right units against your tarpit, or might have already moved the ideal counter-charge too far elsewhere.

Makumba wrote:
Why not just ally space wolfs in to your ork army, +4 rune stuff to cancle his powers and jaws ignores his T , but hurts his GUOs low I.

Jaws is a crap solution since Big Papa will test on I5, (I4 base +1 for being an MC), meaning he only fails 16% of the time.

I guess I could ally DE for the poisoned shooting I just hate Allying. To me I see Orks being used by other races but not working with them. But that is just my issue.

 Ascalam wrote:
My wife is like that,

Doesn't matter what game, or whose dice. She always rolls well.

Annoying when playing 40K against her, but hugely beneficial when she's rolling for stuff on the party's side in Pathfinder or whatever...

Mine too. Playing Relic with her is very challenging with the enemies getting multiple explodes on a regular basis against me.

 Lotet wrote:

 curran12 wrote:
So...in short...you lost to something so nerf it?

so, basically, you've become jaded to this sort of thread.

couldn't you make the more mature response and say that you just need to figure out how to beat it instead of wondering why using the same tactics doesn't work? this thread has poped up a few times already, I haven't read them, tell this guy what he needs to do because I've never had to worry about this personally.

Unless someone casts warp speed on him. He doesn't have to have the spell on him.

At which point have your fleet, FNP, uber tough, IWND, EW swarmlord chase people across the board.

 Super Ready wrote:
The biggest thing with tarpitting is that you have to make sure that your unit *will not run*. For large units of Orks that's normally not a problem as they'll take ages to drop under 10 models from combat with one MC alone... *but* factor in any shooting damage they take on the way in and the possibility of other units charging in to break the MC free (not unlikely with Daemons and Nids), and you've got a real problem in keeping that unit alive.

Unfortunately, you don't really have a way around this beyond directing attacks against fresh attackers. See if it works, your opponent may not be savvy enough to throw the right units against your tarpit, or might have already moved the ideal counter-charge too far elsewhere.

On the other hand the boyz cost less than the MCs. You should be able to send more boyz in to counter the counter to the boyz. Or shoot them with some lootas. I guess that is the entire ork focmula...+boyz +boyz +lootas ....etc.

When someone posts a question, such as, How do I deal with creatures with Iron Arm, telling them the odds that they won't get it doesn't answer their question, and telling them that maybe, sometimes, their opponent won't have it is similarly not helpful.




Anyway, the trick is to either draw them into protracted fights that will take them a while (like, assault a GUO with 30 boyz, and he's probably out for the game), or bring higher volume of fire guns and hope. Unfortunately, blessings are the best psychic powers out there and are really hard to stop.

ork kannons are pretty cheap 180 points gets you 9 S8 shots/turn at BS3.

 Redbeard wrote:
When someone posts a question, such as, How do I deal with creatures with Iron Arm, telling them the odds that they won't get it doesn't answer their question, and telling them that maybe, sometimes, their opponent won't have it is similarly not helpful.

Spoiler:

It is 61%, btw, that 3 rolls gets it

 Jidmah wrote:
The probability of each roll after the first one is equal to probability of a successful roll time the probability of all previous rolls failing. If you already have iron arm, you must reroll the result and thus can't get it again.

Chance to get one specific power out of six on the first roll:
1/6 = .1666
Second roll:
5/6 * 1/5 = .1666
Third roll:
(5/6*4/5) * 1/4 = .1666
Fourth roll
(5/6*4/5*3/4) * 1/3 = .1666

That's not quite right. You're doing something wrong up there. I think the math you're doing is figuring the odds of getting it on any of the given dice, and then adding those together, rather than taking the chance of getting it at least once on any of the rolls.

Basically, it's 1/6 (die 1) + 1/5 (die 2) + 1/4 (die 3). You don't need to rule out any prior rolls because you're just looking to see if you get it, you're not concerned with how many times.

Anyway, the trick is to either draw them into protracted fights that will take them a while (like, assault a GUO with 30 boyz, and he's probably out for the game), or bring higher volume of fire guns and hope. Unfortunately, blessings are the best psychic powers out there and are really hard to stop.

ork kannons are pretty cheap 180 points gets you 9 S8 shots/turn at BS3.

True, it's not all that helpful in itself. Although knowing that on average he should get Iron Arm 50% of the time (No, not 61%, 50%. Instead of presenting the math, which obviously is confusing people, let's put it simply. What percentage of a table does a ML3 psyker get? 3 powers out of a possible 6, 50%.) does allow him to look at if the opponent is getting the power suspiciously often.

Orks don't really have any immediately good counters to massed T7+ MCs. The aforementioned tarpits will work, but in terms of out and out killing them there's nothing amazing. Shokk Attack Gun can one shot them, but it's far too unreliable. Massed Lootas probably stand out as the best way to shoot them down, as unless I'm mistaken neither the Swarmlord or GUO have an amazing Armour Save. Still not great odds though. Kannons could work, they're AP3 right?

Chrysis wrote:

 Redbeard wrote:
When someone posts a question, such as, How do I deal with creatures with Iron Arm, telling them the odds that they won't get it doesn't answer their question, and telling them that maybe, sometimes, their opponent won't have it is similarly not helpful.

Spoiler:

It is 61%, btw, that 3 rolls gets it

 Jidmah wrote:
The probability of each roll after the first one is equal to probability of a successful roll time the probability of all previous rolls failing. If you already have iron arm, you must reroll the result and thus can't get it again.

Chance to get one specific power out of six on the first roll:
1/6 = .1666
Second roll:
5/6 * 1/5 = .1666
Third roll:
(5/6*4/5) * 1/4 = .1666
Fourth roll
(5/6*4/5*3/4) * 1/3 = .1666

That's not quite right. You're doing something wrong up there. I think the math you're doing is figuring the odds of getting it on any of the given dice, and then adding those together, rather than taking the chance of getting it at least once on any of the rolls.

Basically, it's 1/6 (die 1) + 1/5 (die 2) + 1/4 (die 3). You don't need to rule out any prior rolls because you're just looking to see if you get it, you're not concerned with how many times.

Anyway, the trick is to either draw them into protracted fights that will take them a while (like, assault a GUO with 30 boyz, and he's probably out for the game), or bring higher volume of fire guns and hope. Unfortunately, blessings are the best psychic powers out there and are really hard to stop.

ork kannons are pretty cheap 180 points gets you 9 S8 shots/turn at BS3.

True, it's not all that helpful in itself. Although knowing that on average he should get Iron Arm 50% of the time (No, not 61%, 50%. Instead of presenting the math, which obviously is confusing people, let's put it simply. What percentage of a table does a ML3 psyker get? 3 powers out of a possible 6, 50%.) does allow him to look at if the opponent is getting the power suspiciously often.

Orks don't really have any immediately good counters to massed T7+ MCs. The aforementioned tarpits will work, but in terms of out and out killing them there's nothing amazing. Shokk Attack Gun can one shot them, but it's far too unreliable. Massed Lootas probably stand out as the best way to shoot them down, as unless I'm mistaken neither the Swarmlord or GUO have an amazing Armour Save. Still not great odds though. Kannons could work, they're AP3 right?

That may work against the Swarmlord (unless something else is putting a dome on him)

But GUO's have shrouded and an invulnerable save.

If the GUO is in any kind of cover the Kannons are going to bounce off. Doubly so if it also has endurance.

Experiment 626 wrote:

Makumba wrote:
Why not just ally space wolfs in to your ork army, +4 rune stuff to cancle his powers and jaws ignores his T , but hurts his GUOs low I.

Jaws is a crap solution since Big Papa will test on I5, (I4 base +1 for being an MC), meaning he only fails 16% of the time.

Plus my GUO is ML3, so add in that 4+ Deny the Witch, and he'll rarely loose to JotWW.

Chrysis wrote:
True, it's not all that helpful in itself. Although knowing that on average he should get Iron Arm 50% of the time (No, not 61%, 50%. Instead of presenting the math, which obviously is confusing people, let's put it simply. What percentage of a table does a ML3 psyker get? 3 powers out of a possible 6, 50%.) does allow him to look at if the opponent is getting the power suspiciously often.

That's not how math works, though. You can't just pretend that it is a 50% chance when it isn't because probability is confusing.

 curran12 wrote:
So...in short...you lost to something so nerf it?

Curran mean and testy......that's new.

As Makumba said, ally in space wolfs get the rune stuff and add a lone wolf with shield. These guys are amazing at holding down MC's.

 Talore wrote:

Chrysis wrote:
True, it's not all that helpful in itself. Although knowing that on average he should get Iron Arm 50% of the time (No, not 61%, 50%. Instead of presenting the math, which obviously is confusing people, let's put it simply. What percentage of a table does a ML3 psyker get? 3 powers out of a possible 6, 50%.) does allow him to look at if the opponent is getting the power suspiciously often.

That's not how math works, though. You can't just pretend that it is a 50% chance when it isn't because probability is confusing.

I can when I'm trying to help people understand the math. The math has been presented and explained many times, but people keep insisting the answer is different and offer nothing to support their assertions, or provide formulae that are blatantly wrong.

If my choices are present the math again and have people try to refute it with numbers they pulled from somewhere unmentionable for the Xth time or to present a not entirely accurate simplification that "makes sense" I'm going to give the latter a shot. The worst that can happen is that they keep trying to refute it with 2+2=quack.

 Redbeard wrote:
Basically, it's 1/6 (die 1) + 1/5 (die 2) + 1/4 (die 3). You don't need to rule out any prior rolls because you're just looking to see if you get it, you're not concerned with how many times.

It is literally impossible to get a power twice. As in, the probability of rolling iron arm twice is 0% - you cannot ever roll iron arm if you already have it. You must reroll any powers you already have until you get a power you don't have. For that reason, the chance of rolling any given power as you second power must take into account that have a 0% chance of rolling it if it already has been taken. The rolling process is the same as if you take GW's psychic cards, shuffle them and draw a random one from it. If you already drew iron arm, you can't draw it again.
If you don't believe me, about any book on statistics ever has some kind of lottery example in it, which is exactly the same problem. If a number has been drawn, it cannot be drawn again, as opposed to rolling a dice where any number can come up any number of times.

Also, I can prove your math is wrong. By your logic, a mastery level 5 psyker would have the chance of 1/6+1/5+1/4+1/3+1/2 to get iron arm, which would be .5 + .33 + .25 + .20 + .16 = 1.45. The probability of any given even can never be above 1, therefore your calculation must be wrong, no matter what method/logic you use.

Experiment 626 wrote:

Makumba wrote:
Why not just ally space wolfs in to your ork army, +4 rune stuff to cancle his powers and jaws ignores his T , but hurts his GUOs low I.

Jaws is a crap solution since Big Papa will test on I5, (I4 base +1 for being an MC), meaning he only fails 16% of the time.
/quote]
When I used SW ally I always had arjac with some buddies and a SW in a pod , droping in hammer throwing droping him to i1 and jawing him to death and if the demon play puts his GUO in to reservs , I drop the GH plasma unit first .

 Talore wrote:

Chrysis wrote:
True, it's not all that helpful in itself. Although knowing that on average he should get Iron Arm 50% of the time (No, not 61%, 50%. Instead of presenting the math, which obviously is confusing people, let's put it simply. What percentage of a table does a ML3 psyker get? 3 powers out of a possible 6, 50%.) does allow him to look at if the opponent is getting the power suspiciously often.

That's not how math works, though. You can't just pretend that it is a 50% chance when it isn't because probability is confusing.

It, indeed, is a 50% chance (though not for the reason posted above). Any one claiming anything else should look up some probability literature or ask a math teacher/professor of their choice.