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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:19:54
Subject: Re:Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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EVIL INC wrote:Yes,, you are STILL hitting an average of 3 shots with the quad gun with a BS4.
A BS5 shot is an 83% chance to hit. So a twin linked BS4 shot is more accurate than a BS5 shot. If you're assuming your BS5 lascannon hits every time, there's no reason to assume all 4 Autocannon shots don't hit.
Plus, the math takes the chance for a hit into account.
You lied.
No, I didn't.
Show me the exact page number where it says that a hit from a bs4 is more likely to pen armor than a hit from a bs3. Both shots are hits, what about the bs4 makes that hit more likely to pen the armor. does it add to the strength of the weapon or just give it a + something on armor pen rolls. You have not provided citation for your claim.
I proved my claim. It's in the post you read. A BS4 shot is more likely to get a damage result than a BS3 shot.
Sorry, the math just supports the las as being better at taking out an av12 flying vehicles before it can fire on the turn it enters play. Especially when it's movement is ended out of range of the quad gun (very easy to do and maintain full effectiveness)
Against a foolish opponent it may be very easy to do. Against someone who understand how area denial works it's not. But that's a very subjective thing and useless to bring up in a tactics thread (because things like terrain layout have such a huge impact on it)
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:20:27
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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AP is only super valuable against Helldrakes, AV 14, and maybe AV 13. That's because high ROF weapons suck vs these targets and its very valuable to get that explodes! I guess you might lump in Wave Serpents to this, since I'm told most Eldar players shoot the shields every turn.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/12/23 17:20:40
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:23:30
Subject: Re:Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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you are correct in the long run.
We arent talking about the long run or "by the end of the game". In this, we are talking about the pre-emptive strike granted by the interceptor rule. This is designed to take out a flyer on the tun it enters before it can fire any of it's weapons or drop any troops it is transporting.
In games where my vendetta filled with a veteran squad kitted to the gills (dont even get me started on the game when I lost my kitted out command squad with, bodyguards, advisors and 4 plasma guns and plasma pistol on the commander this way) are destroyed without firing a single shot, i am struck a much harder blow than in a game where i lose my vendetta after it has deployed my vets (to do thier own damage) and taken out some tanks.
The quad gun may be better at the long run using the math but in the all or nothing pre-emptive strike that the ADL interceptor gun is designed for, the las has the edge in take out flying vehices of av 12.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:27:47
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Shas'la with Pulse Carbine
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And what happens when your 1 shot misses? I have 4 chances to get the damage done sure not as good of damage and no addition to the table but I still have 4 chances to your 1. Personally I will take the chance of 4 shots verses 1 anyday it is more reliable and on average will get the job done better.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:28:41
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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That's probably true, but FMC are too powerful to be ignored. And that's what the lascannon options does: ignore FMCs. The only flyer that's really worth trying to one-shot is the Helldrake. You might argue Stormraven, but these points bloated things are not nearly as efficient as helldrakes. I hate myself every time I cough up for a Stormraven in a list.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:31:47
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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Quad 4*(8/9)*(1/3)=1.185 Damage (0.593 Pens, 0.593 Glances)
Las 1*(2/3)*(2/3)=0.444 Damage (0.333 Pens, 0.111 Glances)
You're almost twice as likely to get a pen. Let's look at the chances for a 4+ on the damage chart.
.593 Pen *.5 = .2965 or ~30% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
.333 Pen * .666 = .222 or ~22% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
Again, the Quad Gun is a better choice against AV12 even on Interceptor. If you are solely looking at explosion results:
.593 * .16 = .094 or ~10% chance on Interceptor.
.333 * .333 = .110 or ~11% chance on Interceptor.
The lascannon has about a 1.5% better chance to explode a vehicle on the Interceptor shot. That's a "minute" difference. That's proven using math. See how you do that?
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:32:08
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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chances are the one shot wontmiss. I only miss on the roll of a 1. although, it does happen on occasion (when I use the las but I usually take the quad as it is better because of being a jack of all trades). Mathmatically speaking, your 4 hits will only provide a single glance while math shows the las would only get a glance if it was unlucky, average or better rolls will get a pen.
Of course, you might want to talk to rigel, he is still claiming that a hi from a bs4 is more likely than a hit from a bs3 to pen and that bs affects the damage rolls after a vehicle is penned instead of ap.
The math still shows that on the pre-emptive strike shot, the AC is less likely to destroy the av12 than the LCc by almost half.
As I said though, the math also shows the AC to be the better take all comers list option because of being a jack of all trades.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/12/23 17:34:27
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:32:46
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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Oh, I guess it isn't true then.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
EVIL INC wrote:chances are the one shot wontmiss. I only miss on the roll of a 1. although, it does happen on occasion (when I use the las but I usually take the quad as it is better because of being a jack of all trades). Mathmatically speaking, your 4 hits will only provide a single glance while math shows the las would only get a glance if it was unlucky, average or better rolls will get a pen.
Of course, you might want to talk to rigel, he is still claiming that a hi from a bs4 is more likely than a hit from a bs3 to pen and that bs affects the damage rolls after a vehicle is penned instead of ap.
The math above takes all that into account. Do you dispute the calculations? If so, post the corrections. Quit talking qualitatively.
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This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2013/12/23 17:33:54
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:33:34
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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EVIL INC wrote:Of course, you might want to talk to rigel, he is still claiming that a hi from a bs4 is more likely than a hit from a bs3 to pen and that bs affects the damage rolls after a vehicle is penned instead of ap.
See, now that's a lie. Perhaps if you'd read what I post instead of attempt to vilify me you'd understand.
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:41:37
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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try to stay on topic and leave personal attacks and insults out of the conversation. the mods warned you about that before.
The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
i am still looking for you to provide the page number in the rulebook that supports your math of BS making a shot that has already successfully hit the target to be more likely to pen the armor. a hit is a hit, regardless of whether it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model that fired the shot. the BS does not add bonuses to the armor pen as you suggest.
Likewise, i am waitying for you to provide the same to support your claims that BS causes a sho that has hit and penned to do more damage. A pen is a pen ragardless of it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model who fired the shot.. Look on page 74 and you will see my citation that a higher AP (ap2) DOES make a penetrating shot more likely to destroy an vehicle outright than a pen by an ap 4 weapon.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/12/23 17:48:05
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:45:51
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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EVIL INC wrote:The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
I just proved otherwise. With actual math. Mind showing your work?
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
Place quad gun 12" from your board edge in approximately the middle of the board. It is very difficult for a flyer to end its movement out of the 48" range and drop their payload anywhere relevant.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
I'm also only addressing that first shot. And that first shot in pretty much all cases gives the edge to the quad-gun, not the lascannon. Using math.
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:48:35
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
i am still looking for you to provide the page number in the rulebook that supports your math of BS making a shot that has already successfully hit the target to be more likely to pen the armor. a hit is a hit, regardless of whether it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model that fired the shot. the BS does not add bonuses to the armor pen as you suggest.
Likewise, i am waitying for you to provide the same to support your claims that BS causes a sho that has hit and penned to do more damage. A pen is a pen ragardless of it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model who fired the shot.. Look on page 74 and you will see my citation that a higher AP (ap2) DOES make a penetrating shot more likely to destroy an vehicle outright than a pen by an ap 4 weapon.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:48:39
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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EVIL INC wrote:try to stay on topic and leave personal attacks and insults out of the conversation. the mods warned you about that before.
The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
i am still looking for you to provide the page number in the rulebook that supports your math of BS making a shot that has already successfully hit the target to be more likely to pen the armor. a hit is a hit, regardless of whether it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model that fired the shot. the BS does not add bonuses to the armor pen as you suggest.
Likewise, i am waitying for you to provide the same to support your claims that BS causes a sho that has hit and penned to do more damage. A pen is a pen ragardless of it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model who fired the shot.. Look on page 74 and you will see my citation that a higher AP (ap2) DOES make a penetrating shot more likely to destroy an vehicle outright than a pen by an ap 4 weapon.
So you do dispute the calcuations?
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:52:43
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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EVIL INC wrote:The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
It shows a ~1.5% difference between the two. That's marginal enough to ignore for all purposes.
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
Repeating your post doesn't make it more true without evidence.
i am still looking for you to provide the page number in the rulebook that supports your math of BS making a shot that has already successfully hit the target to be more likely to pen the armor. a hit is a hit, regardless of whether it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model that fired the shot. the BS does not add bonuses to the armor pen as you suggest.
I've never said the bolded is true.
Likewise, i am waitying for you to provide the same to support your claims that BS causes a sho that has hit and penned to do more damage. A pen is a pen ragardless of it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model who fired the shot.. Look on page 74 and you will see my citation that a higher AP (ap2) DOES make a penetrating shot more likely to destroy an vehicle outright than a pen by an ap 4 weapon.
I never said the bolded is true. Perhaps you misread?
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 17:59:36
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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rigeld2 wrote:
I just proved otherwise. With actual math. Mind showing your work?
Yes, page 74 of the rulebook. You can spout out random numbers based on faulty information all day but that does not change facts or the rules as written
Place quad gun 12" from your board edge in approximately the middle of the board. It is very difficult for a flyer to end its movement out of the 48" range and drop their payload anywhere relevant.
This is just a lie. You forget that we are talking about the pre-emptive strike shot. NOT following turns. Whetherit is in range of the quad or not Most players dont want to drop thier troops on the turn they arrive because it will not be where they want them and if the can drop them, it would be a deep strike with the chance to mishap (except for GK dropping intercepters). you seem to forget that the quad gun will only be able to fire normally in following turns. it does NOT get to shoot at flyers at the end ofthe enemy movement phase every turn, only the turn it actually comes in. )See page 38 of the rulebook)in following turns, the flyer is free to move and shoot and drop it's troops. The pre-emptive strike shot that we are discussing is already past at this point and you arent allowed to save it for future turns when the enemy comes within range.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
I'm also only addressing that first shot. And that first shot in pretty much all cases gives the edge to the quad-gun, not the lascannon. Using math.
You are addressing it over the course of the game. I am addressing tat first shot coming in. Your math has failed you. miserably
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:02:54
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Shas'la with Pulse Carbine
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Evil no one disagrees that AP 2 will get a higher damage result for a single shot by virture of the added damage. However the statistics provided show using math that even on interceptor you have a better chance of doing damage and destroying a AV 12 flyer with the quad gun and not the lascannon. The interceptor potential of the quad gun is greater than the lascannon because it has more shots. Yes an AP 2 gun get better damage but the quad gun gets more damage and more is better in a game ruled by the law of averages
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:08:20
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Honored Helliarch on Hypex
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rigeld2 wrote:Quad 4*(8/9)*(1/3)=1.185 Damage (0.593 Pens, 0.593 Glances)
Las 1*(2/3)*(2/3)=0.444 Damage (0.333 Pens, 0.111 Glances)
You're almost twice as likely to get a pen. Let's look at the chances for a 4+ on the damage chart.
.593 Pen *.5 = .2965 or ~30% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
.333 Pen * .666 = .222 or ~22% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
Again, the Quad Gun is a better choice against AV12 even on Interceptor. If you are solely looking at explosion results:
.593 * .16 = .094 or ~10% chance on Interceptor.
.333 * .333 = .110 or ~11% chance on Interceptor.
The lascannon has about a 1.5% better chance to explode a vehicle on the Interceptor shot. That's a "minute" difference. That's proven using math. See how you do that?
As much as I agree with you rigeld, I'm going to take the opportunity to do what EVIL INC should be doing and correct your math. Sorry.
A single shot from a BS4 quad gun has a (8/9)*(1/6)*(1/6) = 2.469% chance to cause an explode result. To get the odds of an explode result from all 4 shots, we need to take the compliment (i.e. 97.53%) and take it to the 4th power. Each shot is an independent event, so multiplying the odds of failure together 4 times will give us the odds that they all fail, which is 90.48%. This makes for a 9.516% chance to blow up that Vendetta (or Heldrake).
The lascannon only gets one shot, so it's simpler. (2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3) = 11.11% chance.
Summary:
Quad-gun: 1-(1-(8/9)*(1/6)*(1/6))^4 = 9.516% ~ (2/21)
Icarus Lascannon: (2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3) = 11.11% = (1/9)
Ratio: (1/9) / (1-(1-2/81)^4) = 1.1675.
So the Icarus Lascannon is 16.75% more likely to blow up the Vendetta outright. If you played 63 games, a Quad-gun would blow up the Vendetta outright ~6 times, and the Icarus Lascannon would accomplish this ~7 times.
This is a very tiny difference, because killing the target outright is very rare. That's why nobody cares about interceptor fire from a single unit. It almost never matters.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:12:35
Subject: Re:Quad vs. Las
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Confessor Of Sins
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EVIL,
I think the main issue here is that we're not on the same plane of thought.
What you need to make clear is your intention that the Quad Gun is out of range upon interception, right?
IF the Quad gun is in range of the enemy deployment zone ( I don't even know if the half way line would enable this)
then the maths do indeed show statistically that it's better, but that the Icarus has a 1% chance to explode your target more.
Finally i would indeed agree with you that the Icarus would perform better due to its range, but i have never fielded one myself so cannot give a judgement unfortunately.
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DA:80-S+G+M+B++I-Pw40k01++D+++A+++WD100R++T(T)DM+
Roronoa Zoro wrote:When the world shoves you around, you just gotta stand up and shove back. It's not like somebody's gonna save you if you start babbling excuses. - Bring on the hardship. It's preferred in a path of carnage. Manchu wrote:
It's like you take a Space Marine and say "what could make him cooler?" Instead of adding more super-genetic-psycho-organic modification, you take it all away. You have a regular human left in power armor and all the armies of hell at the gates. And she doesn't even flinch. Pure. Badass. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:12:57
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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FirePainter wrote:Evil no one disagrees that AP 2 will get a higher damage result for a single shot by virture of the added damage. However the statistics provided show using math that even on interceptor you have a better chance of doing damage and destroying a AV 12 flyer with the quad gun and not the lascannon. The interceptor potential of the quad gun is greater than the lascannon because it has more shots. Yes an AP 2 gun get better damage but the quad gun gets more damage and more is better in a game ruled by the law of averages
Actually, you guys ARE saying that the ap weapon does more damage in a single hit.
Statistics show that for an AV 12 flyer the LC is more likely to destroy the target on that first pre-emptive shot. this is especially so when the flyer ends the turn more than 48" from the gun (which is not only easy to do and maintain full effectiveness but usually the case. I do the same against intercepter riptides. A while back, Did it effectively against a 2 riptide/ ADL tau army a while back. Still lost lol, but the vendettas more than made their points back)
Blacktalos, i have fielded both of them. pretty much since day one. In each and every game, they have performed exactly as i have mentioned. The quad is lucky to strip a single HP while the LC actually takes the flyers down. Overall and in the long run (also against land units), i still find the quad more usefull. if I was PURELY going after flying vehicles, I would take the LC. Others are free to take what they feel works better for them. I will take what I KNOW works better for me.
So based on the math andfirsthand experience, I would recommend the quad gun for take all comers lists and for the 'long haul" within a game. The LC may be better at that pre-emptive strike shot against AV12, but the qua overwhelms it with usefulness in other areas.
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/12/23 18:18:53
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:22:52
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Shas'la with Pulse Carbine
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Okay so the AV 12 flyer comes in more than 48" away from my quad gun. So for a heldrake that means its not toasting anything with its flamer. The stormraven can fire its missiles (lascannons if its got them never seen it personally). Your vendettas can shot there lascannons but thats 3 shots that I am not to worried about in all honesty. And what ever is dropped out of the raven or vendetta is out of range of my army as well so they can happily claim an objective and not shoot at anything
Yes the lascannon has a 1% greater chance to explode a AV 12 flyer in 1 shot. That 1% is not enough for me to give up the 4 shot potential of the quadgun.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:23:58
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Lord Commander in a Plush Chair
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EVIL INC wrote:The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
Even if that were not true (but it IS true and no one has yet done the impossible to disprove it), range alone allows an opponent to totally ignore the quad gun by simply measuring the range and staying out of it. Doing this, you can safely unload your troops (providing something else does not pop it) and fire in the shooting phase. I do it all the time and have seen many others do the exact same thing.
The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
i am still looking for you to provide the page number in the rulebook that supports your math of BS making a shot that has already successfully hit the target to be more likely to pen the armor. a hit is a hit, regardless of whether it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model that fired the shot. the BS does not add bonuses to the armor pen as you suggest.
Likewise, i am waitying for you to provide the same to support your claims that BS causes a sho that has hit and penned to do more damage. A pen is a pen ragardless of it was a BS 2 or a BS 6 model who fired the shot.. Look on page 74 and you will see my citation that a higher AP (ap2) DOES make a penetrating shot more likely to destroy an vehicle outright than a pen by an ap 4 weapon.
So math.
Lascannon, BS3: 50% to hit, 50% to Pen, 33.333% to Explode = 8.333% total to destroy AV12 vehicle with one shot
Quadgun, BS3: 75% to Hit, 16.666% to Pen, 16.666% to explode = 2.0833% to Explode in 1 Hit x4= 8.333% overall chance to explode in 1 shooting.
So you have the exact same Chance to Explode AV12 in 1 turn of shooting from both weapons at BS3(the more common BS in the game).
BS4 edges the Lascannon forward by 1.124%(11.111% for the Lascannon vs 9.8765% for the Quad guns overall).
Now we add in the chances to HP the bird to death in 1 Turn:
Lascannon, BS3: 50% to hit, 50% to Pen, 33.333% to Explode = 8.333% total to destroy AV12 vehicle with one shot
Quadgun, BS3: 75% to hit, 33.333% to do some sort of damage, 33.333% chance to damage for 8.333% chance to cause a HP, with 8.333% of those being an explodes result. You need 3 Damage results to destroy the bird so we wind up with an 13.888% total Chance to destroy(6.944% of damaging hits explode + 11.111% chance for 3+ damaging results) I got distracted by my kids, so the overall chance to do 3 HPs might be lower than it should be, I might have done the Math for 4 damaging hits; If someone could check my math that'd be great.
At any rate the Quad gun is more Likely to take out an AV12 Flyer the turn it arrives
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This is my Rulebook. There are many Like it, but this one is mine. Without me, my rulebook is useless. Without my rulebook, I am useless.
Stop looking for buzz words and start reading the whole sentences.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 18:25:11
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Honored Helliarch on Hypex
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EVIL INC wrote:Statistics show that for an AV 12 flyer the LC is more likely to destroy the target on that first pre-emptive shot.
Yes, and it's more likely for me to win the lottery if I buy two tickets instead of one.
That doesn't mean there's a meaningful difference.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:01:05
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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Corollax wrote:rigeld2 wrote:Quad 4*(8/9)*(1/3)=1.185 Damage (0.593 Pens, 0.593 Glances)
Las 1*(2/3)*(2/3)=0.444 Damage (0.333 Pens, 0.111 Glances)
You're almost twice as likely to get a pen. Let's look at the chances for a 4+ on the damage chart.
.593 Pen *.5 = .2965 or ~30% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
.333 Pen * .666 = .222 or ~22% chance to have a good effect on the Interceptor shot.
Again, the Quad Gun is a better choice against AV12 even on Interceptor. If you are solely looking at explosion results:
.593 * .16 = .094 or ~10% chance on Interceptor.
.333 * .333 = .110 or ~11% chance on Interceptor.
The lascannon has about a 1.5% better chance to explode a vehicle on the Interceptor shot. That's a "minute" difference. That's proven using math. See how you do that?
As much as I agree with you rigeld, I'm going to take the opportunity to do what EVIL INC should be doing and correct your math. Sorry.
A single shot from a BS4 quad gun has a (8/9)*(1/6)*(1/6) = 2.469% chance to cause an explode result. To get the odds of an explode result from all 4 shots, we need to take the compliment (i.e. 97.53%) and take it to the 4th power. Each shot is an independent event, so multiplying the odds of failure together 4 times will give us the odds that they all fail, which is 90.48%. This makes for a 9.516% chance to blow up that Vendetta (or Heldrake).
The lascannon only gets one shot, so it's simpler. (2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3) = 11.11% chance.
Summary:
Quad-gun: 1-(1-(8/9)*(1/6)*(1/6))^4 = 9.516% ~ (2/21)
Icarus Lascannon: (2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3) = 11.11% = (1/9)
Ratio: (1/9) / (1-(1-2/81)^4) = 1.1675.
So the Icarus Lascannon is 16.75% more likely to blow up the Vendetta outright. If you played 63 games, a Quad-gun would blow up the Vendetta outright ~6 times, and the Icarus Lascannon would accomplish this ~7 times.
This is a very tiny difference, because killing the target outright is very rare. That's why nobody cares about interceptor fire from a single unit. It almost never matters.
Your math actually agrees with me - I rounded 9.4 something up to 10 and also showed a 11% chance for the lascannon.
I also said there was about a 1.5% difference...
So instead of correcting my math you actually just agreed with it. :-)
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:26:34
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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FirePainter wrote:Okay so the AV 12 flyer comes in more than 48" away from my quad gun. So for a heldrake that means its not toasting anything with its flamer. The stormraven can fire its missiles (lascannons if its got them never seen it personally). Your vendettas can shot there lascannons but thats 3 shots that I am not to worried about in all honesty. And what ever is dropped out of the raven or vendetta is out of range of my army as well so they can happily claim an objective and not shoot at anything
Yes the lascannon has a 1% greater chance to explode a AV 12 flyer in 1 shot. That 1% is not enough for me to give up the 4 shot potential of the quadgun.
your missing the point. the purpose of the intercepter is the pre-emptive strike. this is designed to shoot the incoming flyer BEFORE it gets to shoot or drop it's load. if your not worried about losing a land raider or a manticore or something like that to 3 las cannon shots, than I will be perfectly happy to oblige you in killing them. The payload of troops is also not designed to be dropped on the turn they come in so being perfectly free to move and drop them in my following turn exactly where they need to be is also perfectly fine with me. You seem to forget that that pre-emptive strike CANNNOT be saved to shoot at the end of my movement phase in following turns after I am already on the table.
4 shots out of which an average of only 3 will hit and of those 3, only a single glance if you are really lucky, I am much more willing to have come at me than a single shot hitting on a 2+ ad penning on a 4+ with a much higher chance of destroying me.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:35:39
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Shas'la with Pulse Carbine
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Again you are ignoring the math that has been presented by others. The quadgun has been shown to be better overall including the pre-emptive strike interceptor shot. And if placed mid-field there will be very few areas of the board available to your flyers that still present a threat and are out of range of the quadgun. Also you continue to compare un-equal things. I could say that my BS 5 fireblade will hit 35/36 times (almost all 4 shots) so thats 4 hits and 1.33 pens/glances as opposed to your 0.5 pens/glances. Oh look the quad gun comes out on top even on interceptor it will do more damage not better damage but more damage. I will state again that this game is played to the law of averages and the quadgun is superior in that regard.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:40:23
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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EVIL INC wrote: FirePainter wrote:Okay so the AV 12 flyer comes in more than 48" away from my quad gun. So for a heldrake that means its not toasting anything with its flamer. The stormraven can fire its missiles (lascannons if its got them never seen it personally). Your vendettas can shot there lascannons but thats 3 shots that I am not to worried about in all honesty. And what ever is dropped out of the raven or vendetta is out of range of my army as well so they can happily claim an objective and not shoot at anything
Yes the lascannon has a 1% greater chance to explode a AV 12 flyer in 1 shot. That 1% is not enough for me to give up the 4 shot potential of the quadgun.
your missing the point. the purpose of the intercepter is the pre-emptive strike. this is designed to shoot the incoming flyer BEFORE it gets to shoot or drop it's load. if your not worried about losing a land raider or a manticore or something like that to 3 las cannon shots, than I will be perfectly happy to oblige you in killing them. The payload of troops is also not designed to be dropped on the turn they come in so being perfectly free to move and drop them in my following turn exactly where they need to be is also perfectly fine with me. You seem to forget that that pre-emptive strike CANNNOT be saved to shoot at the end of my movement phase in following turns after I am already on the table.
4 shots out of which an average of only 3 will hit and of those 3, only a single glance if you are really lucky, I am much more willing to have come at me than a single shot hitting on a 2+ ad penning on a 4+ with a much higher chance of destroying me.
Stormravens can drop their troops before you get to shoot interceptor.
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:40:35
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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EVIL INC wrote:rigeld2 wrote:I just proved otherwise. With actual math. Mind showing your work?
Yes, page 74 of the rulebook. You can spout out random numbers based on faulty information all day but that does not change facts or the rules as written
My quote - for context - was responding to you saying
The math still shows the LC as the better option for taking out AV 12 flyers before they can shoot or unload than the AC.
Which a wholly incorrect statement as proven. It has literally nothing to do with page 74 of the rulebook.
This is just a lie. You forget that we are talking about the pre-emptive strike shot. NOT following turns. Whetherit is in range of the quad or not Most players dont want to drop thier troops on the turn they arrive because it will not be where they want them and if the can drop them, it would be a deep strike with the chance to mishap (except for GK dropping intercepters). you seem to forget that the quad gun will only be able to fire normally in following turns. it does NOT get to shoot at flyers at the end ofthe enemy movement phase every turn, only the turn it actually comes in. )See page 38 of the rulebook)in following turns, the flyer is free to move and shoot and drop it's troops. The pre-emptive strike shot that we are discussing is already past at this point and you arent allowed to save it for future turns when the enemy comes within range.
... And? You used a lot of words to address a point I never raised.
You said it was "very easy" (exact words) to stay out of range on the turn you move in. I disagreed, but also said that even if it was, they're doing nothing relevant that turn. Putting a flyer out of the game for 1/4 of the turns it could possibly be doing something is almost as good as killing it.
EVIL INC wrote:rigeld2 wrote:EVIL INC wrote:The important part of interceptor is that all important pre-emptive strike. After that, it is "just" a weapon that can soot at flyers at full bs during your turn. that is why I am only addresing that first pre-emptive strike shot.
I'm also only addressing that first shot. And that first shot in pretty much all cases gives the edge to the quad-gun, not the lascannon. Using math.
You are addressing it over the course of the game. I am addressing tat first shot coming in. Your math has failed you. miserably
No, the only math I've shown has to do with the Interceptor shot and has literally nothing to do with the rest of the game.
Mind showing some actual math support for your statement that the LC wins on Interceptor shots? Support that doesn't use differing BS for the Quad Gun vs Lascannon?
I'll say it again - the math proves that, on average, the Quad gun is better against every current Flyer (not sure about FW). It's better against infantry and MCs as well, and also light vehicles (AV 12 or under).
The lascannon is better, on average, against AV13 and AV14.
The vast majority of Intercept targets are Flyers, light vehicles, or MCs/infantry. This means that the lascannon is only a correct choice if you really need those 15 points elsewhere or you know you'll be facing a lot of AV 13 or 14 vehicles. Automatically Appended Next Post: Martel732 wrote: EVIL INC wrote: FirePainter wrote:Okay so the AV 12 flyer comes in more than 48" away from my quad gun. So for a heldrake that means its not toasting anything with its flamer. The stormraven can fire its missiles (lascannons if its got them never seen it personally). Your vendettas can shot there lascannons but thats 3 shots that I am not to worried about in all honesty. And what ever is dropped out of the raven or vendetta is out of range of my army as well so they can happily claim an objective and not shoot at anything
Yes the lascannon has a 1% greater chance to explode a AV 12 flyer in 1 shot. That 1% is not enough for me to give up the 4 shot potential of the quadgun.
your missing the point. the purpose of the intercepter is the pre-emptive strike. this is designed to shoot the incoming flyer BEFORE it gets to shoot or drop it's load. if your not worried about losing a land raider or a manticore or something like that to 3 las cannon shots, than I will be perfectly happy to oblige you in killing them. The payload of troops is also not designed to be dropped on the turn they come in so being perfectly free to move and drop them in my following turn exactly where they need to be is also perfectly fine with me. You seem to forget that that pre-emptive strike CANNNOT be saved to shoot at the end of my movement phase in following turns after I am already on the table.
4 shots out of which an average of only 3 will hit and of those 3, only a single glance if you are really lucky, I am much more willing to have come at me than a single shot hitting on a 2+ ad penning on a 4+ with a much higher chance of destroying me.
Stormravens can drop their troops before you get to shoot interceptor.
And so can vendettas. It might not be in the exact place you want, but they can drop the turn a Flyer comes in (I'm 99% sure, don't have my IG codex on me).
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This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2013/12/23 19:41:36
My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:43:35
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Locked in the Tower of Amareo
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Oh, Vendettas can do it, too? Why don't space marines just use the Vendetta? LOL
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 19:46:30
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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The Hive Mind
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Martel732 wrote:Oh, Vendettas can do it, too? Why don't space marines just use the Vendetta? LOL
The rules for the two transports are essentially identical as far as that goes (again, iirc).
I believe the IG Flyer forces a dangerous terrain test if you scatter while SM ones don't, but I don't remember 100%.
And it's tangential to the current discussion.
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My beautiful wife wrote:Trucks = Carnifex snack, Tanks = meals. |
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![[Post New]](/s/i/i.gif) 2013/12/23 20:09:31
Subject: Quad vs. Las
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Boom! Leman Russ Commander
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Well, the dropping of troops during the movement phase by deep striking them is something that most players dont do. the idea is to come on, do your shooting and position yourself to drop them on turn 2 (or if the enemy skyfire stuff is taken out, fly about doing damage with shooting and drop them on the last turn to claim an objective. Getting past that all important interceptor shot when you come in allows you do do this.
as we have seen, we can discount the fake math that others are using to say that a shot that has been fired and hit it's target is more likely to pen if the BS of the model firing the shot is higher and the fake math that others are using to say that a shot that has hit and penned is more likely to do more damage if the BS of the model firing the shot is higher.
Page 74 shows that only the higher AP weapons get this.
The actual math supports me on this along with the rulebook. As long as internet bullies want to put up lies and fake math based on the lies, I will keep reposting the truth. If need be till the thread is hundreds of pages long or longer, i refuse to lie just to make someone else feel more important.
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