Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

 Jihadin wrote:
Sebster....are you saying you think China would want a unify Korea on their border? Think deeper on it.

No, China doesn't want a unified Korea, but that's not a question they would get to answer in isolation.

Instead the question is what China is willing to do, or to tolerate in order to prevent that unified Korea from happening. Consider a collapsed North Korea, refugees streaming across the border in to China, and the US, UN and South Korea approach China and tell them they're building a reintegration plan in which all North Korean refugees will be returned to this new Korean nation, saving China a load of money and hassle. Does China dislike a unified Korea enough to screw that up and end up with even more refugees?

China can pull it off. Prop up a puppet regime and pretty much control North Korea. Hell we're doing it in Afghanistan.

China can do lots of things. Right now any of those things is a mile away from things China actually wants to do, so instead they settle for just maintaining the status quo. My point is that that is a mile away from actually desiring the current situation.

I mean, don't forget it was China that eventually resolved the situation in Sri Lanka. Something India had failed to do, something the US wanted nothing to do with, but for China it was a key part of their access to African resources, so they did it. But with North Korea? It seems at this point the juice is not worth the squeeze.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

Kavik_Whitescar wrote:
again cant find it now, but he was paying off border guards from the NK to let him through. There is wayy less support for this regieme in power than we imagine. Its probably just like being a guardsmen tho, do what you are told or *BLAM*

The stories of brainwashing and the like are wildly exaggerated. The borders are still quite porous and the people there aren't stupid. The problem is more like Stalinist Russia - that there is an unbelievable level of control exerted over the upper echelons of power, so that no individual or group of rivals is able to exist for any time at all. For a long time it was believed that like Stalinist Russia that system would disappear on the death of dear leader, but we're now in to our third generation of dear leader and control has barely waivered.

Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.

To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.

 Frazzled wrote:

To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.

That's a very; erm, interesting definition of "save" there Frazz.

To save everyone else's village, sometimes you have to destory their village?

 Frazzled wrote:
Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.

To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.

I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's, and as long as China supports North Korea, there is nothing that can be done by the West.
Hostile actions by the West would likely draw China into the conflict and China is likely to draw it's ally Russia into the conflict. Hello World War III.
The only thing we can do is either waiting for China to get tired of North Korea or a revolution in North Korea itself.
At most the West could keep some pressure on China and maybe Russia, so that they can put some pressure on North Korea.

I would also like to note that is report is not very reliable. It is heavily biased and only shows one side of the issue. It also relies on rumours and biased witnesses rather than solid evidence and indpendent research.
While it is without doubt that Korea is doing very bad things that would make Stalin blush; it should still be noted that propaganda is everywhere, especially in this report.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.

To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.

I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's

Didn't they push the NK all the way to the Chinese border, prompting China to enter the war?

Yes, that is what happened.

Things are a bit different now, though. Both the NK and PRC have got nuclear weapons, and SK is a highly developed first world country.

I don't think that there is anything that can be done. The whole area is too much of a powder keg, on spark and it will all go up in flames.


Welcome to the real world, sometimes the bad guys win.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:
Well there is an option that eliminates the NK threat, but it would require will and iron.

To save a village, sometimes you have to destroy a village.

I don't hope you mean war? The US was unable to win a war against North Korea in the 50's, and as long as China supports North Korea, there is nothing that can be done by the West.
Hostile actions by the West would likely draw China into the conflict and China is likely to draw it's ally Russia into the conflict. Hello World War III.
The only thing we can do is either waiting for China to get tired of North Korea or a revolution in North Korea itself.
At most the West could keep some pressure on China and maybe Russia, so that they can put some pressure on North Korea.

I would also like to note that is report is not very reliable. It is heavily biased and only shows one side of the issue. It also relies on rumours and biased witnesses rather than solid evidence and indpendent research.
While it is without doubt that Korea is doing very bad things that would make Stalin blush; it should still be noted that propaganda is everywhere, especially in this report.

No not war, unless you consider the war lasting ~30 minutes flight time.
Most people don't view that as an option unless NK attacks. So your other options revolve around containment.

Another US option of course, is just to say "wow that guys a nut. sucks to be you South Korea. Good thing its not our issue." and get the ^*%( out of there.

 Palindrome wrote:
There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.

So you post a thread asking what can be done with North Korea, shoot down suggestions as to what may play out, and then say that there is pretty much nothing that can be done anyway. Interesting way to hold a discussion

 Dreadclaw69 wrote:

 Palindrome wrote:
There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.

So you post a thread asking what can be done with North Korea, shoot down suggestions as to what may play out, and then say that there is pretty much nothing that can be done anyway. Interesting way to hold a discussion

For once I agree with Dreadclaw. That's a rather... interesting way to hold a discussion.

 sebster wrote:

The stories of brainwashing and the like are wildly exaggerated. The borders are still quite porous and the people there aren't stupid. The problem is more like Stalinist Russia - that there is an unbelievable level of control exerted over the upper echelons of power, so that no individual or group of rivals is able to exist for any time at all. For a long time it was believed that like Stalinist Russia that system would disappear on the death of dear leader, but we're now in to our third generation of dear leader and control has barely waivered.

I met a North Korean during my time in the country, she had swum to freedom over the border after teaching herself to swim. She left behind elderly parents but no other family, they had wanted the best for her and encouraged her to go. Incredibly strong character and certainly not a dumbo, although one has to only look at how the government manipulates the un-educated in the developed world (let alone in places such as NK) to see how its possible to easily direct people so that they solemnly act against their own best interests.

I've heard some quite interesting stories of pictures of Kim Jong Un/Il in newspapers being folded in half as a resistance sign, families and communities gathering to watch satellite TV (usually news or dramas from across the border), the sale of Chinese mobile phones allowing communication on a level not possible before.

But, after Kim Jong Un's ascension things have taken a step back. Flea markets, officially banned under Kim Jong Un but something that the authorities had previously turned a blind eye to as a necessity, have once again been stopped. As to have meetings of a certain number of people, and attempts to introduce an Orwellian/Gestapo esque rule on the populace have been resumed. The SK press has an absolute field day with this a lot of the time, writing about stuff that almost certainly isn't true in some cases, but no doubt there is a nugget of truth in amongst the mind-control drugs and people being fed to room's full of dogs.

I agree that perhaps the incentive isn't there right now for China to act. Perhaps if things start to escalate on the peninsula they might feel the need to do so.

 Jihadin wrote:
Sebster....are you saying you think China would want a unify Korea on their border? Think deeper on it. China can pull it off. Prop up a puppet regime and pretty much control North Korea. Hell we're doing it in Afghanistan.

Umm... no we aren't. Karzai is doing everything he possibly can to screw us (and his nation) over in his final months in office.

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

For once I agree with Dreadclaw. That's a rather... interesting way to hold a discussion.

Well I was looking for something feasable, a Chinese invasion of NK falls a bit short of that criteria.

 Palindrome wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

For once I agree with Dreadclaw. That's a rather... interesting way to hold a discussion.

Well I was looking for something feasable, a Chinese invasion of NK falls a bit short of that criteria.

There isn't one. There is basically nothing that China or anyone else can realistically do, except perhaps assasinate Kim Jung Un and that may well go horribly wrong.

There you go, I took out the name of the poster so you can pretend someone else answered yourself

What exactly do you think a country do to another country short of war?

 Gentleman_Jellyfish wrote:

There you go, I took out the name of the poster so you can pretend someone else answered yourself

Thanks for that, how about suggesting something useful?

I can see that this is degenerating into the usual pointless dakka slide into gak so It may as well get locked.

 Palindrome wrote:

 Gentleman_Jellyfish wrote:

There you go, I took out the name of the poster so you can pretend someone else answered yourself

Thanks for that, how about suggesting something useful?

I can see that this is degenerating into the usual pointless dakka slide into gak so It may as well get locked.

Mayhaps you could suggest something first. I'm still trying to find out what you think one country could do to another to motivate it besides economics sanctions and war. Voodoo?

Well beyond the nuclear option, I think the KPA would fold quite quickly.

North Korean army discipline is extremely bad. The famine conditions in the country combined with the monolithic power of the army has turned many military units into gangs of bandits, which often terrorize local towns for food and indeed even fight rival units for control. These internal battles can actually be quite large/bloody but are rarely reported much in the outside world. Chinese Border Guards also frequently have to deal with attempts at banditry by North Korean soldiers. They will sneak over the border and try to take their supplies.

A good example was in the weeks leading up to Kimmy killing his uncle, one gang of KPA soldiers attempted to take a fishery from another gang of soldiers (which had itself confiscated from locals), resulting in several hundred deaths.

There also have been many uprisings/acts of disobedience against the Communist regime throughout the decades, and the fallout from such has had the army kill hundreds of people. There have been multiple episodes of strikes/protests by workers demanding pay that isn't food rations, all ending rather bloodily. In 1995 an entire Corps of KPA soldiers left their posts and tried to march on Pyongyang, why exactly is not clear but they were probably swept up in the anti-Communist revolutions at the time and were in the middle of a very bad famine. It did not end well and thousands of the mutineers were sent to camps or executed.

The army is held together under a machine of terror thanks to the Pyongyang-based Military Counterintelligence Agency, but it's extremely unstable and with the horrible conditions in North Korea the units already have balkanized in a dog-eat-dog atmosphere. This extends to the highest levels, i.e. the Kim family only trusts certain army units. Most notably Supreme Guard Command, his ~100,000 force of bodyguards meant to defend Pyongyang from an attempted coup. Forces under Pyongyang Defense Command (~60,000) and the 3rd Army Corps (~30,000 strong directly south of the capital) make up the only units the Kim Family trust and will go anywhere near for an extended period. In contrast, the large force of KPA soldiers along the DMZ is seen as politically unreliable and under the influence of Generals who have their own spheres of influence. These Generals are as much businessmen and administrators as they are commanders, and run local black markets, enterprises, agriculture, and so on.

Granted, Kim is actually trying to rectifying this by launching a purge across the country right now that I'm sure has heavily hit the military (indeed, several high-ranking officers are assumed dead). Officers with ties to China in particularly are being targeted. Behind the anti-uncle, anti-china, paranoia though is clearly an attempt to reassert Pyongyang's control over the KPA though. A control that fell apart under Kim Jong-Il.

So what would we see in an invasion scenario? The army units (especially on the DMZ, which are under the harshest surveillance to ensure they don't defect and primarily drawn from southern areas where the famines are the worst) would probably fold quickly, either surrendering or scattering and looting local North Korean villages for food. However, in the end, I won't be shocked if the KPA units on the DMZ and Chinese Border under the influence of Warlord-like Generals eventually duke it out with the Kim loyalists around Pyongyang. Supreme Guard Command actually worries me a bit though, and would probably actually fight to the death since they're predominately drawn from locals of the Pyongyang/suburbs area and are indeed brainwashed from teenagers to worship the Kim Family as Gods (a stereotype otherwise not true with most of North Korea, imo).

 Frazzled wrote:

Mayhaps you could suggest something first.

That was the entire point of the thread, I can't see a way of resolving this.

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

Mayhaps you could suggest something first.

That was the entire point of the thread, I can't see a way of resolving this.

It is resolved. Keep them penned up until something positive happens, or the voodoo dolls kick in, whichever comes first.

Frankly I'm surprised they haven't started shifting to the China/Vietnam model. Lets make money Komrade!

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.

 Harriticus wrote:
Well beyond the nuclear option, I think the KPA would fold quite quickly.

North Korean army discipline is extremely bad. The famine conditions in the country combined with the monolithic power of the army has turned many military units into gangs of bandits, which often terrorize local towns for food and indeed even fight rival units for control. These internal battles can actually be quite large/bloody but are rarely reported much in the outside world. Chinese Border Guards also frequently have to deal with attempts at banditry by North Korean soldiers. They will sneak over the border and try to take their supplies.

A good example was in the weeks leading up to Kimmy killing his uncle, one gang of KPA soldiers attempted to take a fishery from another gang of soldiers (which had itself confiscated from locals), resulting in several hundred deaths.

There also have been many uprisings/acts of disobedience against the Communist regime throughout the decades, and the fallout from such has had the army kill hundreds of people. There have been multiple episodes of strikes/protests by workers demanding pay that isn't food rations, all ending rather bloodily. In 1995 an entire Corps of KPA soldiers left their posts and tried to march on Pyongyang, why exactly is not clear but they were probably swept up in the anti-Communist revolutions at the time and were in the middle of a very bad famine. It did not end well and thousands of the mutineers were sent to camps or executed.

The army is held together under a machine of terror thanks to the Pyongyang-based Military Counterintelligence Agency, but it's extremely unstable and with the horrible conditions in North Korea the units already have balkanized in a dog-eat-dog atmosphere. This extends to the highest levels, i.e. the Kim family only trusts certain army units. Most notably Supreme Guard Command, his ~100,000 force of bodyguards meant to defend Pyongyang from an attempted coup. Forces under Pyongyang Defense Command (~60,000) and the 3rd Army Corps (~30,000 strong directly south of the capital) make up the only units the Kim Family trust and will go anywhere near for an extended period. In contrast, the large force of KPA soldiers along the DMZ is seen as politically unreliable and under the influence of Generals who have their own spheres of influence. These Generals are as much businessmen and administrators as they are commanders, and run local black markets, enterprises, agriculture, and so on.

Granted, Kim is actually trying to rectifying this by launching a purge across the country right now that I'm sure has heavily hit the military (indeed, several high-ranking officers are assumed dead). Officers with ties to China in particularly are being targeted. Behind the anti-uncle, anti-china, paranoia though is clearly an attempt to reassert Pyongyang's control over the KPA though. A control that fell apart under Kim Jong-Il.

So what would we see in an invasion scenario? The army units (especially on the DMZ, which are under the harshest surveillance to ensure they don't defect and primarily drawn from southern areas where the famines are the worst) would probably fold quickly, either surrendering or scattering and looting local North Korean villages for food. However, in the end, I won't be shocked if the KPA units on the DMZ and Chinese Border under the influence of Warlord-like Generals eventually duke it out with the Kim loyalists around Pyongyang. Supreme Guard Command actually worries me a bit though, and would probably actually fight to the death since they're predominately drawn from locals of the Pyongyang/suburbs area and are indeed brainwashed from teenagers to worship the Kim Family as Gods (a stereotype otherwise not true with most of North Korea, imo).

I learned a lot that I did not know from this post.

 Frazzled wrote:

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.

You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.

You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?

Not during, but they were around for the Nuremberg trials, iirc.

I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.

And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.

You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?

Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Grey Templar wrote:
I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.

And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...

On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.

Surely the League of Nations was a precursor to the UN, which seems to have overtaken its role in 1945/1946.

I don't think the UN would need to exist during the Holocaust to draw comparison to it.

 Frazzled wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

 Palindrome wrote:

 Frazzled wrote:

It is resolved.

When the treatment of NKs populace is compared to the holocaust by the UN its very, very far from resolved.

The UN did nothing to treat the holocaust. Soviet JS IIs, British Tommies (Oi!!!), and American Mustangs did.

You do realize that the UN didn't even exist during WWII, right?

Exactly, hence the original post being nonsensical.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Grey Templar wrote:
I always figured the NK army was way overrated, similar to how the Iraq army was overrated.

And on the subject of their nukes, I wouldn't see them as much of a threat to anything beyond the Korean peninsula. Their missile building capability is simply too lacking. Dangerous for sure but mostly because you don't have a clue what is going to happen. Will it even make it off the pad? Will it explode in midflight? Will it simply crash into the sea? Will the bomb fail to detonate? etc...

On the positive, watching NK with missiles is like watching orks trying to build ICBMs.

Not really. We know the Ork weapons can work.