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I'm quickly dubious of articles that suggest once X, Y, or Z happens and things are better for GW, prices will go down. Now that's pointless optimism and totally contrary to all GW has done over many many years. They had an opportunity to reduce prices when switching to Finecast and they chose not to, quite the opposite. When they more widely introduced plastics they was the carrot that prices would be cheaper. Yet in an investors report a few years ago they declared that customers are apparently happy to pay the same for either metal or plastic, so they would charge accordingly.

Reduced operating costs to GW aren't passed on to customers. If anything, they spin the novelty value as a reason to charge more. GW also won't do sales or reduce prices because they believe that it devalues their brand, they would rather destroy excess stock. I understand the argument in theory, but they make toy soldiers, and their position seems to be down to pride from an inflated sense of importance.

I'm not really changing my position because I still don't think they're going under just yet. However, they are at risk of that and people who write articles like this are blatantly misrepresenting things. To everyone looking at profit, I have a question for you. Considering all the cost cutting measures and less production did very little to reduce total costs, how long can they survive if they continue to lose 8.2% revenue per year? They are at a point where their costs cannot get any lower without it hurting the revenue, they are at least at the very top of the death spiral in that sense. How can a company who does no advertising or market research and has alienated many of its veteran customers increase revenue without also increasing cost of operations? If GW does not answer this question within the next year, they will be bought out within the next 5.

This really doesn't need a separate thread. It was discussed at length in the mega-thread:

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/1020/607499.page#7073943

TL;DR: Frontline Gaming guys are genuinely always optimistic (a good character trait, I might add), but are also in the business of selling stuff revolving around 40k, be it events, mats, or models. They have every personal interest to apply a smidgen of Hand-Wavium to the matter.

Things aren't looking good for GW. There's already a 14 part series elsewhere that is written by previous corporate executive officer who also has a model-based business that provides a much more detailed and fact driven analysis. Conclusion: It's looking pretty Grimdark for GW.

It's 15 parts now, 15 being based on the new numbers released. Spoiler: it says even worse things about the outlook for GW than part 1-14 did but I guess zaphod is just a hater...

It does not paint it like a pretty picture but its nice to read an opinion of someone not so entrenched on either side for a change.

All i can say about this article is;

This is great news!

(I wonder if GW would collapse will certain people point the finger at dakkadakka instead blame it on recent business decisions?)

Toofast wrote:
It's 15 parts now, 15 being based on the new numbers released. Spoiler: it says even worse things about the outlook for GW than part 1-14 did but I guess zaphod is just a hater...

Or a liar, according to Frontline. They're just fake credentials, and he obviously has no idea what he's talking about. He's just a loser/troll/hater sitting in his mom's basement furiously typing away each new part when it tickles him.

 Jehan-reznor wrote:
All i can say about this article is;

This is great news!

(I wonder if GW would collapse will certain people point the finger at dakkadakka instead blame it on recent business decisions?)

I wouldn't be surprised if people just blamed Dakka for it, period. "Their toxic culture of hate cost GW valuable sales! They singlehandedly brought down GW by spreading negativity and posting leaked pictures from WD, which ruin the surprise of every new release and make people lose interest a week later!"

 Jehan-reznor wrote:
(I wonder if GW would collapse will certain people point the finger at dakkadakka instead blame it on recent business decisions?)

Of course. Is there any doubt about that?

Dakka's able to make and unmake destinies, for it weaves the very fabric of fate.

GW's no exception.

 Jehan-reznor wrote:
(I wonder if GW would collapse will certain people point the finger at dakkadakka instead blame it on recent business decisions?)

It would be pretty pathetic if a one highly focused, message board could bring down a multi-million pound company. If that did happen, I would not only would point and laugh at GW, but feel like the years spent on this site were worth something tangible.

If DakkaDakka had that kind of power we should talk GW down for six months, buy the shares when they tank, then talk the company up again until we can sell for huge loot.

 Sidstyler wrote:

Toofast wrote:
It's 15 parts now, 15 being based on the new numbers released. Spoiler: it says even worse things about the outlook for GW than part 1-14 did but I guess zaphod is just a hater...

Or a liar, according to Frontline. They're just fake credentials, and he obviously has no idea what he's talking about. He's just a loser/troll/hater sitting in his mom's basement furiously typing away each new part when it tickles him.

To be fair, it's a lot easier to simply refuse to believe someone's credentials rather than actually read and respond to their arguments.

Nobody has still seemed to answer what the author's credentials are that lets him make an informed decision regarding it. So I'll chalk it up to typical pro-GW optimism coupled with hoping that they can turn things around before implosion.

I'll take the word of Wayshuba, Reinholt or "Zaphod" over someone who writes articles for a pro-40k site, same as I'd trust opinions about new things that I read over what Vela says on BOLS; one is a biased source that benefits directly from it being perceived as good, the other is roughly neutral with no ulterior motive.

As a historian, the first thing I learned was to check sources. This article is coming from someone with an obvious pro-GW bias. As he stands to make money off of GW doing good, his views cannot be taken as proof of anything.

The guy who claims to be ex-Aldi and wrote the 15-part series on his blog.

I can't check his credentials and you guys can't check mine.

All I can say is that based on 30+ years experience of business, a management degree, learning various foreign languages and associating with foreigners speaking English, that guy sounds to me like he is a foreigner from a northern European country, who can speak English very well, and who knows what he is talking about in business.

He just clearly knows a lot more about practical business operations than you can find out by looking up stuff on Google. And there is a turn of phrase about his language which sounds Nordic or Dutch or Germanic. I can't explain it clearly.

There comes a point anyway where credentials don't matter because you can tell someone is talking sense or nonsense whatever they claim for credentials.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
The guy who claims to be ex-Aldi and wrote the 15-part series on his blog.

I can't check his credentials and you guys can't check mine.

All I can say is that based on 30+ years experience of business, a management degree, learning various foreign languages and associating with foreigners speaking English, that guy sounds to me like he is a foreigner from a northern European country, who can speak English very well, and who knows what he is talking about in business.

He just clearly knows a lot more about practical business operations than you can find out by looking up stuff on Google. And there is a turn of phrase about his language which sounds Nordic or Dutch or Germanic. I can't explain it clearly.

There comes a point anyway where credentials don't matter because you can tell someone is talking sense or nonsense whatever they claim for credentials.

Excellent point Killrazy and I do stand corrected. Baring credentials, you can then see if what they say is bull gak or not. The guy who wrote the now 15 part future of GW says many things supported by evidence, past examples and observation.
The guy in the OP's article seems to ignore hard evidence and goes off of blind optimism.

If you read the article and read the posters follow up comments, you will see that his whole point is, yes they have a string of bad years and poor decitions but they are not dead yet not close, which is essentially the same every one else is saying. They are not doing well and its starting to show.

Yes the logical conclusion should this be a continued trend is that the company fails. No mystery there, profits along sales are dropping and the customer base shrinking. That say almost everyone agrees that GW has the resources to turn this around, it is not a matter of IF they can do it, but of ARE THEY WILLING.

Are they willing? Maybe.
Are they able? No. Not unless they bother to find out why they're failing.

We should consider the other angle people forget.

Why the **** should we care about their financials?

We are the consumer in this equation. We should only care about us being treated right.

We're only talking this much about GW because some people allow themselves to be trapped and further funds GW's practices that cause it to lose more reasonable consumers.

We're not investors. I don't give a crap if gw is or isn't kind of doing okay, or if they have a cash reserve our not, because it's clearly not translating into products that people want at a price point they can afford.

Well buying armies from GW is no small investment these days so being able to discern if the company is going to be around is kind of important to those decision making processes.

@Vertrucio: I think there is a hope, perhaps wildly unrealistic, that if they see that they are in trouble they will reevaluate their practices and actually try to give the customer what they want and conversely a fear that if it is smooth sailing for GW they will have no incentive to make those changes.

Gwaihirsbrother wrote:
@Vertrucio: I think there is a hope, perhaps wildly unrealistic, that if they see that they are in trouble they will reevaluate their practices and actually try to give the customer what they want and conversely a fear that if it is smooth sailing for GW they will have no incentive to make those changes.

But they do nothing to find out what the customer wants.

True, but maybe they will see the light or have no choice but to try to figure that out. One can always hope right?

And will they do it in time?

Hope? A fool's hope.

- Gandalf

The reps from Frontline seem like decent guys on here, but I think the article is a bit...off. As many others have said, we have a biased group claiming GW is in great shape, while professionals who are actually neutral are warning of impending doom. It's not hard to figure out which is the group that's more accurate...

 Vertrucio wrote:
We should consider the other angle people forget.

Why the **** should we care about their financials?

We are the consumer in this equation. We should only care about us being treated right.

We're only talking this much about GW because some people allow themselves to be trapped and further funds GW's practices that cause it to lose more reasonable consumers.

We're not investors. I don't give a crap if gw is or isn't kind of doing okay, or if they have a cash reserve our not, because it's clearly not translating into products that people want at a price point they can afford.

The reason financials are discussed is because GW made it an issue to be brought up. When the price hikes started and people made claims of it hurting their bottom line and pushing customers out the most concrete information available is in the financial report. At first they were just evidence for discussion but now they have their own fascination.

This is all I'm reminded of while reading the OP.

 Harriticus wrote:


This is all I'm reminded of while reading the OP.

Good 'ol Baghdad Bob.

Though I like the UK's Comical Ali moniker.

 Vertrucio wrote:
We should consider the other angle people forget.

Why the **** should we care about their financials?

We are the consumer in this equation. We should only care about us being treated right.

We're only talking this much about GW because some people allow themselves to be trapped and further funds GW's practices that cause it to lose more reasonable consumers.

We're not investors. I don't give a crap if gw is or isn't kind of doing okay, or if they have a cash reserve our not, because it's clearly not translating into products that people want at a price point they can afford.

We should give a crap because GW has a strong impact on the market and the community. GW's prices, policies, practices, and behaviors have had and can have a substantive impact on the market. GW's pricing influences the pricing of other miniatures companies, for example. GW's IP enforcement has had a staggering impact on the market for a very long time.

I have said this before, but wondering why we are talking about GW is like wondering why someone interested in the smartphone market would be talking about Apple.

What happens over at GW HQ will have an impact on the wargaming industry, so it makes sense to pay attention to it, even if you are not a GW customer.

Well, GW has been letting their financials dictate the game, so yeah, the topics are interconnected.