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because germans have a tendency to be not feeling any compassion a bout their own...but somehow now it is possible that some here can show the compassion to strangers...which is not only raising eyebrows...
as for the main question of this thread...yes i hope so...she is unable to steer in her own party or allies and the thing that this whole wretched get together thing to form a government is taking ages...i think it is long overdue to get new and better candidates for the government...unfortunately the people avoid new chances and stick to worn out ones instead...german angst all over...

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:
but the problem with Western leaders, not just Merkel, is that they have no vision beyond power for its own sake. They mostly come across as bank managers and PR men/women fretting over missing paperclips.

You have a big assumption there that there is vast sweeping reform needed. But despite the angst from lots of people, life for people in Western countries is actually as good as life has been anywhere, at any time. You may say its not that great and there's lots of problems, and you wouldn't be wrong, but it's still the best that human beings have ever managed. So humble managers, just making sure all the paper clips are accounted for aren't exciting, but they're also what you need when future improvements are going to be hard won, and incremental.

The alternative is, well, Trump, and we know how that's turning out.

If you know your post-WW2 UK history, then you'll know that the Labour party launched a moral crusade to eradicate poverty, squalor, unemployment, bad housing etc etc

I know a bit. I know Atlee won in 1945 with an enormous majority, which he lost almost all of next election in 1950, and then lost government after a snap election in 1951. Regardless of what you might think of Atlee's programmes now, what mattered in democracy and what mattered to Atlee is how people at the time viewed his programs. And their opinions meant Atlee burned through a massive majority in record time and lost power quite quickly, after which Labor was left in the wilderness for the next 13 years. That doesn't mean I think his policies are wrong, I think government owned & rented housing is a far better answer to low income support than all the other nonsense we've tried since then. But if you want an explanation for why very few politicians attempt a wide range of genuine nation changing policies, it's generally because people don't want that much change.

Why is Germany, a prosperous 1st world nation, still struggling to build an airport? It's symptomatic of the malaise affecting the West...

You should be careful about cherry picking anecdotes to build a globe spanning narrative.

Not sure about Merkel....but May is on an increasingly sticky wicket.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Not sure about Merkel....but May is on an increasingly sticky wicket.

I thought May May was on a sticky wicket from the start?

In one sense that is correct, as Brexit was always going to be difficult to deliver (starting with a decision of what it really means, which still isn't clear!)

However, May at least had a good majority in the Commons and could probably have forced through whatever Brexit deal she eventually ended up with, unless it was clearly utterly catastrophic.

From that viewpoint, her decision to call an election was a bad one and has made her wicket a lot stickier, and time is running out.

Then there's being unable to sack or move on members of her cabinet.

Basically, she's dependant on the DUP, who are dependant on the bribe. She has no authority, not even within her own party. And with the Tories, you need someone who's strong as party leader because their so inherently fractured.

 oldravenman3025 wrote:
I thought May May was on a sticky wicket from the start?

Theresa May was fine until she came out with her idiotic manifesto. Her opponents are honest-to-God communists, and she almost handed them the election by giving literally everyone a reason to hate her.

No. Her opponents are socialists.

Quite the difference there, ta.

 Viktor von Domm wrote:
because germans have a tendency to be not feeling any compassion a bout their own...but somehow now it is possible that some here can show the compassion to strangers...which is not only raising eyebrows...
as for the main question of this thread...yes i hope so...she is unable to steer in her own party or allies and the thing that this whole wretched get together thing to form a government is taking ages...i think it is long overdue to get new and better candidates for the government...unfortunately the people avoid new chances and stick to worn out ones instead...german angst all over...

Well its been 3 months far as I know and she cannot formna government properly?

Surely there's is a cut off point where she will have to put up and form or form a minority, or call a new election. And even then if wins again will the circus repeat self and be locked for months in the limbo of no government.

Germany does need a government. She does have to put one together together if she wants to lead Germany.

She's not going to form a minority. Merkel's style of ruling requires her to not actually need to discuss anything in parliament, just tell her people what they're supposed to vote for. She doesn't want to persuade anyone. I think this has to do with her upbringing in the GDR where she was already a functionary, parliament is supposed to nod and be quiet, basically a show.

One of the main problems currently is that the CDU/CSU has been hollowed out to a political entity with no actual own programme. It used to be a conservative party (which is probably why so many people still vote for them, you know, Grandpa did it and so do we) and is now a purposeless mess willing to sell out to anyone to stay in power (I think she would have preferred the Greens, but they were too weak, and the FDP didn't play ball).

In the next period under the great coalition I think they're finally going to kill the SPD off, Merkel has always had the profound skill to appropriate all the little successes of her decisions to herself and the CDU while blaming all problems on her partners. This way she actually got the FDP voted out of the Bundestag once and if this keeps up, it will happen to the SPD, too, I think.

Yes, her time should end.
We just made the mistake to offer a "job" (chancellor) without a limit and so she will follow the path of Helmut Kohl...

The coalition of CDU and SPD may happen, because power, but I agree with XuQishi this will not end well for the SPD.
Wouldn't call this a Great Coalition. Seems it deserves another Name. Nothing great to see, neither the size of the partners nor the "visions". Maybe great words are used.

When the middle of Europe, is led like she does, my guess is this isn't in the best interest of everybody on our little continent and whoever put his money on Merkel is going to rue the Day.

 1hadhq wrote:
Great Coalition.

Isn't it technically the big (not great) coalition because it consists of the the two biggest parties (instead of a big one and one or two smaller ones who can govern without including the other one of the big ones).

Either way the two largest parties seem to have come to some accord - if the news over here is at least some way accurate. Even opposed factions can set aside differences to ensure the far right-wing nuts stay out

 Wulfmar wrote:
Either way the two largest parties seem to have come to some accord - if the news over here is at least some way accurate. Even opposed factions can set aside differences to ensure the far right-wing nuts stay out

Yeah, that is very true. here in the Netherlands we had a stable coalition of right-wing conservative liberals with left-wing progressive socialists. Parties with completely opposed viewpoints, yet I believe it was the first Dutch government to complete a full term in quite some time. This coalition was formed after a previous coalition of the liberals and the christian-democrats with the right-wing nuts of Geert Wilders turned out to be not such a good idea (I believe that may have been one of the shortest Dutch government in history).

 Wulfmar wrote:
Either way the two largest parties seem to have come to some accord - if the news over here is at least some way accurate. Even opposed factions can set aside differences to ensure the far right-wing nuts stay out

Yeah, I think the "traditional" parties would see it as an unacceptable blow to accept the AfD into any form of ruling coalition, no matter what - so they'll try to hammer together some kind of coalition. That'll be a bit of a personal blow to quite a few politicians who confidently refused another big coalition and said they wouldn't shy from another round of elections, but I think the point where those are an option are long past now.

There's a lot of internal struggle between federal and state level poltics, I think - one state faction of the SPD just voted comparably strongly against another big coalition, which is just a gesture with no impact behind it, but it shows how divided the parties are on this question.

It's a bit of a farce that they still call the current talks "Sondierungen" or "probes/probings" after so many months.

Edit - Just listened a bit to one of our more prominent Sunday talkshows. Somebody made a good point there - if the SPD agrees to another big coalition, after steadily losing voters over the last years, there's a good chance nobody will see a reason to vote for them again in four years, effectively marginalizing one of the oldest, largest parties in German politics. Which is why so many are getting cold feet, AGAIN, about this big coalition.

Slightly OT here, but as a student of German history, I'm constantly amazed that the SPD are still around, given how feeble they were in the 1920s and 1930s, and their ineffectiveness in WW1 and the Bismarck era.

They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party. If people can't really see important differences between one party and another...

 Witzkatz wrote:
They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party. If people can't really see important differences between one party and another...

To be fair, that's afflicting most parties in the Western World/Western Democracies.

Here in the UK, we have a Conservative party that is not Conservative, and a Labour party that despises working class people.

So Germany is not unique in this regard.

I am surprised that it has taken 3 months for a government to be formed.

Your nation has a reputation for efficiency in my country.

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Witzkatz wrote:
They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party. If people can't really see important differences between one party and another...

To be fair, that's afflicting most parties in the Western World/Western Democracies.

Here in the UK, we have a Conservative party that is not Conservative, and a Labour party that despises working class people.

So Germany is not unique in this regard.

I am surprised that it has taken 3 months for a government to be formed.

Your nation has a reputation for efficiency in my country.

Oh, the government still has not been formed. Probing talks are - again - over, officially, so now they're supposed to start the actual government-forming-talks, but there's confusion and contrary voices all over the place. Might take still a bit longer until they are done.

Feels a bit strange that, officially, there is no clear ruling coalition for the last months but you don't really feel any of that, life just goes on, politicians still do their thing...

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:given how feeble they were in the 1920s and 1930s

Really

On July 20, 1932, the SPD-led Prussian government in Berlin, headed by Otto Braun, was ousted by Franz von Papen, the new Chancellor, by means of a Presidential decree. Following the appointment of Adolf Hitler as chancellor on January 30, 1933 by president Hindenburg, the SPD received 18.25% of the votes during the last (at least partially) free elections on March 5, gaining 120 seats. However, the SPD was unable to prevent the ratification of the Enabling Act, which granted extraconstitutional powers to the government. The SPD was the only party to vote against the act (the KPD being already outlawed and its deputies were under arrest, dead, or in exile). Several of its deputies had been detained by the police under the provisions of the Reichstag Fire Decree, which suspended civil liberties. Others suspected that the SPD would be next, and fled into exile.[36] However, even if they had all been present, the Act would have still passed, as the 441 votes in favour would have still been more than the required two-thirds majority.

After the passing of the Enabling Act, dozens of SPD deputies were arrested, and several more fled into exile. Those that remained tried their best to appease the Nazis. They voted in favour of Hitler's foreign policy statement of 19 May, in which he declared his willingness to renounce all offensive weapons if other countries followed suit. They also publicly distanced themselves from their brethren abroad who condemned Hitler's tactics. It was to no avail. Over the course of the spring, the police confiscated the SPD's newspapers and property. The party was finally banned on June 19, 1933.

Being the only party in the Reichstag to have voted against the Enabling Act (with the Communist Party of Germany prevented from voting), the SPD was banned in the summer of 1933 by the new Nazi government. Many of its members were jailed or sent to Nazi concentration camps. An exile organization, known as Sopade, was established, initially in Prague. Others left the areas where they had been politically active and moved to other towns where they were not known.

Between 1936 and 1939 some SPD members fought in Spain for the Republic against Franco and the German Condor Legion.

After the annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 the exile party resettled in Paris and, after the defeat of France in 1940, in London. Only a few days after the outbreak of World War II in September 1939 the exiled SPD in Paris declared its support for the Allies and for the military removal from power of the Nazi government.

What would you expect from a fascist leadership, to just let them be the opposition? For its post WW2 rebirth the linked wikipedia article also has something about that.

 Witzkatz wrote:

 Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:

 Witzkatz wrote:
They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party. If people can't really see important differences between one party and another...

To be fair, that's afflicting most parties in the Western World/Western Democracies.

Here in the UK, we have a Conservative party that is not Conservative, and a Labour party that despises working class people.

So Germany is not unique in this regard.

I am surprised that it has taken 3 months for a government to be formed.

Your nation has a reputation for efficiency in my country.

Oh, the government still has not been formed. Probing talks are - again - over, officially, so now they're supposed to start the actual government-forming-talks, but there's confusion and contrary voices all over the place. Might take still a bit longer until they are done.

Feels a bit strange that, officially, there is no clear ruling coalition for the last months but you don't really feel any of that, life just goes on, politicians still do their thing...

3 months is kinda getting silly though. And no concrete answer. Someone should tell Merkel, Shultz and whoever else to agree or not and have a new election.

A week or two maybe. 3 months is abit of a joke. Give em a week. If no deal. New election or they can stand down Might get em taking it more seriously..

In contrast, it's kinda showing how diffrent systems are. Our election was on Thursday, results friday. Coalition was Monday one Tuesday.

People where unsure on Sunday about things, and taking notes, yet alone weeks.

We had a coalition and deal agreed in about a week with DUP, the con lib pact took a weekend.

Maybe we ain't so bad at this political stuff as some make out.

In Belgium it took 541 days before parties were able to negotiate a coalition. The current Dutch government took 208 days.
3 months isn't that long.
Long negotiation talks are pretty much a given in the current European political climate with how European democracies work. Calling new elections over it would be silly and not solve anything. They will come to a deal eventually. No need to rush it.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
In Belgium it took 541 days before parties were able to negotiate a coalition. The current Dutch government took 208 days.
3 months isn't that long.
Long negotiation talks are pretty much a given in the current European political climate with how European democracies work. Calling new elections over it would be silly and not solve anything. They will come to a deal eventually. No need to rush it.

To add, lets not forget the previous German government was only formed at almost three months after the election. This time Christmas and New Year added an extra week of inactivity. Take into account that in 2013 they almost exclusively talked to the SPD. Now they had talks with the FDP and Die Grünen that collapsed before going to the SPD. So really, why are people perceiving three months as absurd?

Lets stop pretending three months is somehow bizarre for a system of proportional representation.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
No. Her opponents are socialists.

Quite the difference there, ta.

Well, to be fair, Corbyn's history alone is enough to make people think that Labour is chock full of communists. And he strikes me as someone that is more like "old Labour" than a Blarite "New Labour" type.

So on Sunday this week, the SPD wants to have a internal (hopefully final) vote about whether or not they will start coalition talks with the CDU. News agencies are saying that if it ends in a "No", Martin Schulz will probably not be able to hold onto his position as head of the party.

So I guess we can expect a week of Schulz - who tweeted a definitive "No to another big coalition!" a few weeks ago - trying to motivate everyone with how great another big coalition would be. Quite a few people were initially thinking he might be the next chancellor, but now I have this gut feeling we might be better off with him not being in that position...

...it's interesting to see how you don't hear a lot about Merkel in the news these days, even though the CDU still got the most votes. It's mostly about the other parties clamoring about this or that and how to proceed. Also kind of typical for her style of politics by now, waiting in the background to see how things develop and then capitalize on whatever happens. Sensible from her position, I guess - I see the benefits of a cautious, steady approach, but I get why some people think her time as a confident leader might be over very soon.


Edit: The smaller parties feel the AfD on their heels, I think. Sarah Wagenknecht, leader of our 'the Left' party, apparently called for a grand new left-wing movement for the people, politicians from different parties coming together, forging something new...of course, her own party kind of went into a panic moment, thinking she was implying a dissolution of the Left party into something else. Yesterday she was backtracking a lot again, saying she'd just like to strengthen the Left and make it into a larger party. (Isn't that what they all want to do? How does that fit with her earlier statement anyway? Oh well...)

They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party.

I think they lost the track. They're now going heavily after the votes of minorities and the unemployed and seem to ignore that these guys either vote socialist or not at all. Meanwhile the SPD keeps punching the middle class skilled worker in the face by doing nothing for them. But then I wouldn't really expect them to, most SPD (or green) functionaries nowadays haven't worked a day in the industry in their lives, most of them are civil servants of some kind.
Say what you will about ex-Chancellor Schröder - he came from nothing and worked hard to get to where he was.

XuQishi wrote:

They had a proper "worker's party" image for a long time around the 80s and 90s, but recently they seem to have lost a bit of their focus on how they want to define themselves as a party.

I think they lost the track. They're now going heavily after the votes of minorities and the unemployed and seem to ignore that these guys either vote socialist or not at all. Meanwhile the SPD keeps punching the middle class skilled worker in the face by doing nothing for them. But then I wouldn't really expect them to, most SPD (or green) functionaries nowadays haven't worked a day in the industry in their lives, most of them are civil servants of some kind.
Say what you will about ex-Chancellor Schröder - he came from nothing and worked hard to get to where he was.

I mostly agree. And while I'm not all too fond of Schröder using is old political connections to now earn royalties with GAZPROM and co., I also thought he was a pretty decent chancellor, all things considered. I'm not sure I would expect the same from Martin Schulz these days - though any other alternatives also don't spring to mind immediately.

I'm assuming these coalition talks take comparably long right now because everybody is already trying to figure out a game plan for the next election, and nobody is happy with what they're seeing.

I'm assuming these coalition talks take comparably long right now because everybody is already trying to figure out a game plan for the next election, and nobody is happy with what they're seeing.

and also i am thinking that after that whole time the big coalition will form and rule...but no one can say for how long...it is at it´s best an uneasy alliance...and we´ve seen crumbling coalitions leading to early new elections....this scenario is in my view the most likely one...

Mario wrote:

Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote:given how feeble they were in the 1920s and 1930s

Really

On July 20, 1932, the SPD-led Prussian government in Berlin, headed by Otto Braun, was ousted by Franz von Papen, the new Chancellor, by means of a Presidential decree. Following the appointment of Adolf Hitler as chancellor on January 30, 1933 by president Hindenburg, the SPD received 18.25% of the votes during the last (at least partially) free elections on March 5, gaining 120 seats. However, the SPD was unable to prevent the ratification of the Enabling Act, which granted extraconstitutional powers to the government. The SPD was the only party to vote against the act (the KPD being already outlawed and its deputies were under arrest, dead, or in exile). Several of its deputies had been detained by the police under the provisions of the Reichstag Fire Decree, which suspended civil liberties. Others suspected that the SPD would be next, and fled into exile.[36] However, even if they had all been present, the Act would have still passed, as the 441 votes in favour would have still been more than the required two-thirds majority.

After the passing of the Enabling Act, dozens of SPD deputies were arrested, and several more fled into exile. Those that remained tried their best to appease the Nazis. They voted in favour of Hitler's foreign policy statement of 19 May, in which he declared his willingness to renounce all offensive weapons if other countries followed suit. They also publicly distanced themselves from their brethren abroad who condemned Hitler's tactics. It was to no avail. Over the course of the spring, the police confiscated the SPD's newspapers and property. The party was finally banned on June 19, 1933.

Being the only party in the Reichstag to have voted against the Enabling Act (with the Communist Party of Germany prevented from voting), the SPD was banned in the summer of 1933 by the new Nazi government. Many of its members were jailed or sent to Nazi concentration camps. An exile organization, known as Sopade, was established, initially in Prague. Others left the areas where they had been politically active and moved to other towns where they were not known.

Between 1936 and 1939 some SPD members fought in Spain for the Republic against Franco and the German Condor Legion.

After the annexation of Czechoslovakia in 1938 the exile party resettled in Paris and, after the defeat of France in 1940, in London. Only a few days after the outbreak of World War II in September 1939 the exiled SPD in Paris declared its support for the Allies and for the military removal from power of the Nazi government.

What would you expect from a fascist leadership, to just let them be the opposition? For its post WW2 rebirth the linked wikipedia article also has something about that.

They turned a blind eye to Rosa Luxemburg being murdered, and they tried to appease Conservative elements that loathed and despised them, and were hell-bent on destroying them.

That is not a measure of success in any book.

 Viktor von Domm wrote:

I'm assuming these coalition talks take comparably long right now because everybody is already trying to figure out a game plan for the next election, and nobody is happy with what they're seeing.

and also i am thinking that after that whole time the big coalition will form and rule...but no one can say for how long...it is at it´s best an uneasy alliance...and we´ve seen crumbling coalitions leading to early new elections....this scenario is in my view the most likely one...

Thete is a clear advantage to majority government at times. It may have its faults but least you get one that's ready to take power normally inside a few days to a week to get thr cabinet roles set up and decided.

UK system has faults but that is a clear advantage.
Most of the time we get a majority however slim.