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 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
But it’s not an exclusively GW thing, is it?

As a general thing? No

As a "we do it twice a year because we fething can" thing? Absolutely an exclusively GW thing, yes.


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Vorian wrote:

GW sell their combat patrol at the price they charge today.

They can not produce the extra boxes that would sell at half the price.

Are you trying to say that at half price they would not be earning money? Because... citation needed.

The usual arguments are coming up about Games Workshop prices. It's clear from GW's annual financial reports that they could afford to charge a lot less for their products. Then again they are under no obligation to make their products cheaper. Arguably high prices from GW also gives more room for the competition to operate. Even though GW is by far the dominant player in the market if their prices were cheaper there would be less incentive to shop elsewhere.

One point I wanted to pick up on specifically is the whole supply / demand thing, i.e. GW aren't able to keep up with supply. This is evidenced by the amount of out of stock items. While I think there is still some truth to that argument I think the amount of out of stocks has reduced a lot in recent months. I know GW were expanding their factory in Nottingham, I'm not sure how far along they are on this project. Regardless demand does not seem to be outstripping supply any more, at least not to the same extent as previously.

Like I say I'm not sure why supply is currently more or less OK. It could be because production has expanded. Or because demand is not that high at this time of year. Or something else. I'm not really sure.


Ultimately even if GW have finally found a way to keep up with demand we shouldn't kid ourselves into thinking that they will make their products more affordable as a result.

Vorian wrote:
They can't manufacture enough product to satisfy demand, their prices being too high is not really an argument that holds any merit at all.

Ah, yeah, that's the actual issue, right there. They sell out still, so... clearly the market will bear them raising prices.

While this keeps happening, everything else will be moot.

Demand clearly outstrips supply, so a price increase is a reasonable move.

Don't complain about prices, vote with wallets, people. These are toys, not bread.

 Albertorius wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
But it’s not an exclusively GW thing, is it?

As a general thing? No

As a "we do it twice a year because we fething can" thing? Absolutely an exclusively GW thing, yes.


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Vorian wrote:

GW sell their combat patrol at the price they charge today.

They can not produce the extra boxes that would sell at half the price.

Are you trying to say that at half price they would not be earning money? Because... citation needed.

They'd still make money, but why would they sell for less when they can't manufacture enough to satisfy those potential extra sales?

Their customers buy whatever they make. I guess in some cases they have priced too highly and not sold everything they could have (they certainly priced me way out with the new night goblins that I would have picked up for Old World at least), but on the whole they can't make enough to meet demand.

This is just an increase slightly above inflation though, we'll get another one next year and have this exact thread again.

 Da Boss wrote:
I bought some Tyranids from a UK online store back in 2019. I finally got round to painting them. Out of curiousity I looked at the new kit and saw it was I think 31.50 for 10 gaunts and 1 ripper swarm. Sticker shock made me go check what I had paid for my brood back then and I had bought 24 gaunts and 2 ripper swarms for 32.00. I did buy from a discounter but nearly doubling in price in 6 years is pretty crazy imo and I can't think of anything else I buy that has done the same. My wages certainly haven't doubled! It's rare that I look at a GW kit and think 'that's worth buying' these days. But they seem to be raking in the cash so plenty of people must disagree with me!

I wish my electricity bill had only doubled in the last 6 years. It's more like quadrupled.

ccs wrote:

Billicus wrote:
Yeah that's sort of what I object to though - the idea that companies charging more for stuff just because of the passage of time is somehow as natural as winter being cold. It isn't, this never used to happen, if you wanted to charge more you made a new product and sold consumers on the benefits. A box of 10 intercessors is no more valuable than it was at launch, if anything less so, but it now costs a lot more because of reasons. It's bs

Yeah, that's not how that's ever worked. For any product.

You put so much skin in the game with your detailed counter-argument of "no", wow. And then I got called crazy. Quality discourse on Dakka. Enjoy getting milked for all you're worth, useful tools.


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 Albertorius wrote:

Vorian wrote:
They can't manufacture enough product to satisfy demand, their prices being too high is not really an argument that holds any merit at all.

Ah, yeah, that's the actual issue, right there. They sell out still, so... clearly the market will bear them raising prices.

While this keeps happening, everything else will be moot.

They sell out *sometimes*. There's a lot of gak sitting on shelves and getting sent back to HQ. And there are other considerations that aren't moot. Making record profits from a dwindling customer base isn't as good a position to be in as it might look.

Is their market dwindling though? Last I checked their market just went through a massive boom. Even accounting for the artificial high of the Pandemic and the natural slowdown that followed; GW are still doing amazingly well - enough to invest in yet more factory construction.

Indeed. They demonstrated hefty growth again this year - even with the impressive bonus from Space Marine 2.

The claim they’ve a dwindling customer base is I’m afraid not rooted in anything approaching demonstrable fact.

Billicus wrote:

ccs wrote:

Billicus wrote:
Yeah that's sort of what I object to though - the idea that companies charging more for stuff just because of the passage of time is somehow as natural as winter being cold. It isn't, this never used to happen, if you wanted to charge more you made a new product and sold consumers on the benefits. A box of 10 intercessors is no more valuable than it was at launch, if anything less so, but it now costs a lot more because of reasons. It's bs

Yeah, that's not how that's ever worked. For any product.

You put so much skin in the game with your detailed counter-argument of "no", wow. And then I got called crazy. Quality discourse on Dakka. Enjoy getting milked for all you're worth, useful tools.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Albertorius wrote:

Vorian wrote:
They can't manufacture enough product to satisfy demand, their prices being too high is not really an argument that holds any merit at all.

Ah, yeah, that's the actual issue, right there. They sell out still, so... clearly the market will bear them raising prices.

While this keeps happening, everything else will be moot.

They sell out *sometimes*. There's a lot of gak sitting on shelves and getting sent back to HQ. And there are other considerations that aren't moot. Making record profits from a dwindling customer base isn't as good a position to be in as it might look.

I suppose they might be building a new factory because they sell out *sometimes*, but even if you aren't familiar with their products constantly being out of stock, you'd have to imagine they are building a new factory because they think they can sell more volume at the current prices.

Billicus wrote:

You put so much skin in the game with your detailed counter-argument of "no", wow. And then I got called crazy. Quality discourse on Dakka. Enjoy getting milked for all you're worth, useful tools.

As opposed to the quality discourse of making an easily disproven claim while calling everyone tools?

Their *market* (tabletop in general) is in boom, no doubt. My belief is GW are commanding a shrinking amount of that market, in terms of their customer numbers. It's not something they report on directly but you can look at the increase of spending on warhammer community and new stores for example, but generally that belief for me is anecdotally driven so take it with a dose of salt, it certainly isn't fact. I mean hell they literally give away a model every month in their stores now, even when they were doing cover models in WD they weren't giving them away.

Considering that overseas from the UK; stock is a constant complaint; then yes GW clearly can cope with more production.


We also have to consider that they are steadily moving away from resin and metal and pushing for more plastics.


Everything suggests that GW are on a big sustained high right now. Any dip is very unlikely to be GW's prices in isolation and more the result of other market forces (cost of living; disasters; etc)

 xttz wrote:

Billicus wrote:

You put so much skin in the game with your detailed counter-argument of "no", wow. And then I got called crazy. Quality discourse on Dakka. Enjoy getting milked for all you're worth, useful tools.

As opposed to the quality discourse of making an easily disproven claim while calling everyone tools?

Please, if it's so easily disproven, lay it on me. "It isn't too expensive because some people will still pay it" isn't disproving.

I'm not calling *everyone* tools, bit reductive. FWIW, it was purely the "I don't see why an old product is worth so much more today than it was at release" that was being dismissed as "but no", that's the thing I think is a bit overly useful to GW to be saying. If there's a good reason why 10 intercessors cost *so much* more today than they did when they were the new hotness and still had all the initial costs to pay off I'll gladly hear it.

(Intercessors are a gak example but everyone knows there are lots of better/worse examples either way because GW do this very inconsistently)

GW has issues with keeping supply up since the very beginning, no new factory solved that simple because GW uses them to make more new items and not to make more of the already existing ones.

Also increasing prices of existing items that are on stock has nothing to do with compensation of costs but is there to create the perception of value

So an average of 4%?
With all those paint pots having a 0% rise, I guess it means the plastic gets a 10% or so rise to bring the average to 4%.
Crafty.






EDIT: Typo

 kodos wrote:
GW has issues with keeping supply up since the very beginning, no new factory solved that simple because GW uses them to make more new items and not to make more of the already existing ones.

Also increasing prices of existing items that are on stock has nothing to do with compensation of costs but is there to create the perception of value

Well the last time they brought a factory online it happened during the Pandemic when GW's product demand spiked way beyond any predictions; then it remained much higher than before even when it came down from the peek. So its not that GW was making more models and couldn't keep up; its that demand went way beyond what GW could support.

Also there's a flipside that GW increasing product variety helps them increase product demand and market growth. Bringing all those old games back means GW retains more of the market; retains growth; maximises the chance for customers to move within instead of outside their ecosystem

 kodos wrote:
GW has issues with keeping supply up since the very beginning, no new factory solved that simple because GW uses them to make more new items and not to make more of the already existing ones.

Also increasing prices of existing items that are on stock has nothing to do with compensation of costs but is there to create the perception of value

"They have an issue keeping up with supply because all their added capacity is taken up with new releases that they can't stock enough of". Ok? They still can't manufacture enough to satisfy demand.

They are increasing costs of existing items in line with inflation so their real price is constant.

Billicus wrote:
Their *market* (tabletop in general) is in boom, no doubt. My belief is GW are commanding a shrinking amount of that market, in terms of their customer numbers. It's not something they report on directly but you can look at the increase of spending on warhammer community and new stores for example, but generally that belief for me is anecdotally driven so take it with a dose of salt, it certainly isn't fact. I mean hell they literally give away a model every month in their stores now, even when they were doing cover models in WD they weren't giving them away.

Year end and 6 month financial results (all checked by an independent party) are available here

2016 - 2017? Overall revenue £158,000,000
2017 - 2018? Overall revenue £219,000,000
2018 - 2019? Overall revenue £256,000,000
2019 - 2020? Overall revenue £269,000,000
2020 - 2021? Overall revenue £353,000,000
2021 - 2022? Overall revenue £386,000,000
2022 - 2023? Overall revenue £445,000,000
2023 - 2024? Overall revenue £565,000,000

So I’m afraid your claim just isn’t correct, or supported by any available evidence. To be blunt? You don’t generate a 22% increase in a year off the back of a dwindling consumer base.

It might be true at the local level for some that certain generations of gamer are drifting away from GW. Older gamers who've been in the game long enough and are looking for other games and model lines; but younger people are 100% getting hooked on GW.


Lets not forget for a lot of the fantasy/scifi market - GW isn't just another game. It's the game that they are brought into the market with. One thing GW does tremendously well is get fresh blood through the door.
School programs, Hatchetworks, IP licences in other markets (video games, Amazon TV); own brand highstreet shops


All those things and more combine to get GW fresh blood. New customers; some who just buy a lot and leave; others who stick around. No one else comes close to this in the market - everyone else is left poaching gamers off GW for the most part; with a much reduced impact on totally fresh blood entering the market.

I'm interested to see what happens when the new factory is operational, and how it feels on the customer end (or if we feel anything at all).

I somehow doubt it'll be a steady, quiet, moderate return to the days where pretty much everything you wanted to buy from them was available whenever you wanted it. Almost feels inevitable that there's some kind of unexpected negative consequence waiting for the customers (more FOMO splashes, limited products, etc.)

Billicus wrote:


Please, if it's so easily disproven, lay it on me.

This was already comprehensively explained on the previous page:

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/817330.page#11774692

I mean I could go a step further and assemble specific examples from two decades in the business I work for; showing our suppliers increasing their costs year on year while we make similar annual sales price revisions to maintain profit. But there's absolutely no point in doing that because your goal here is not to listen or understand, but to tell everyone how mad you are.

 Overread wrote:
Older gamers who've been in the game long enough and are looking for other games and model lines; but younger people are 100% getting hooked on GW.

I don't think there is much evidence for this at all. Their increased earnings are based on generations of once-aspirational customers who have nostalgia for the late 90's/early 00's and have entered their highest-earning years.

edit: and the "lore only" fan is a new identity that has skyrocketed in recent years. They watch youtube and play videogames, but do not engage with tabletop gaming.

There’s also some argument that as, categorically the biggest fish in the pond? A robust GW is beneficial, precisely because they’re the Majority Entry Point.

So, most sci-fi or fantasy war gamers will get into the hobby via GW products. And from there, through online sources and clubs, be exposed to other companies and games which they may very well prefer. Maybe permanently, maybe as another system they play alongside their GW ones.

Now, that is not to say if something truly catastrophic happened to GW, it would therefore take the whole industry the way of the Dodo too. But their reach and impact right now is undeniable.

Not to justify GW’s prices and increases and that? But by ensuring they themselves have a very comfortable profit margin? They give more wiggle room for other companies after a fashion.

Consider Kings of War. At the outset, a major part of its appeal was its models being notably cheaper than Warhammer. And so we saw hobbyists buying KoS models to play WHFB with.

But, if GW had decided to cut their own profit margins, and reduce their prices to KoW levels? Mantic would’ve lost that selling point - or have been forced to slim down their own profit margins to maintain it. Which, and this bit is seriously speculative, could’ve meant Mantic couldn’t make sufficient profit.


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 Altruizine wrote:
I'm interested to see what happens when the new factory is operational, and how it feels on the customer end (or if we feel anything at all).

I somehow doubt it'll be a steady, quiet, moderate return to the days where pretty much everything you wanted to buy from them was available whenever you wanted it. Almost feels inevitable that there's some kind of unexpected negative consequence waiting for the customers (more FOMO splashes, limited products, etc.)

Might depend if they’ve hammered the new warehousing software into shape.

But something’s gotta give. By all means, not being able to meet stock demand is a nice problem to have - but it absolutely is a problem. Whilst we can’t know what percentage of GW sales (across all channels) might be impulse buys? That will be part of it. So, if you struggle to meet demand, those impulse buys are quickly lost. And there’s no guarantee the impulse itself will be sated by the spod buying a different GW box.

Some part of it must surely be the clear increase in demand. Initial stock levels are planned well in advance of release. But, if you’ve seen a significant increase in buyers since you set that Release Day Stock Level? It’s more likely you’ll again fail to meet demand.

So….yeah, high demand and struggling to meet it is a problem, however nice a problem it is in the grand scheme of things.

I do like how some GW models can be sold in one box for very little and then repackaged and sold for 3 times as much.

Loss Leader. Same reason that supermarkets in the UK can sell a decent beer at less than half the price of a pub pint.

They take the hit on Product A as the “lure”, losing a little money in doing so. And it’s the profit margins of Products B-Z, which you buy whilst you’re there, that make the money.

GW Big Boxes are also there to give you and a friend a way to try it out. The two Heresy ones of course get a leg up that they also offer a significant solo force to you straight off the bat. Speaking of which? I really need to get on with some model building.

Yeah, the Leviathan box set compared to the new Space Marine Combat Patrol.

Those Marines went from affordable to holy gak!

I doubt that any of the models GW sells are loss leaders. The models they straight up give away for free are, of course. But I think even the most restrained sellers, like event models or other limited editions, still make their production costs back. As would the WH+ ones if one was intellectually honest and rolled them up into the cost vs. earnings of the service, and didn't consider them freebies.

Vorian wrote:

 kodos wrote:
GW has issues with keeping supply up since the very beginning, no new factory solved that simple because GW uses them to make more new items and not to make more of the already existing ones.

Also increasing prices of existing items that are on stock has nothing to do with compensation of costs but is there to create the perception of value

"They have an issue keeping up with supply because all their added capacity is taken up with new releases that they can't stock enough of". Ok? They still can't manufacture enough to satisfy demand.
They are increasing costs of existing items in line with inflation so their real price is constant.

There is a difference between cannot meet demand and don't want to meet demand.
GW rather releasing something new over increasing stock simply means they don't want to, not that they can't

And keeping the price up so things aren't getting cheaper over time just more expensive is exactly the strategy of artificial value creating I was talking about

One thing to consider is the statement we've had before that models make a huge chunk of their money back and profits in the first month or two of release.

So a big part of Gw continuing new models is 100% them keeping sales going both for those boom sales but also to keep other things going.

Sure GW could slow down and release nothing; but just look how conversation; chatter and attention drifts FAST when nothing new appears. Heck look what happened to armies like Sisters of Battle when they didn't get anything new for ages - sales and interest dries up.

GW can't afford to slow down on releases too much; they can't stop doing it because then everyone gets off the rollercoaster