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Just curious to see what you all think is going to happen over the next 5 years or so in mexico. I tend to think the govt will win, but who knows........ the drug guys sure are killing alot of people. What a mess.

Yeah, I read about this in Time a few years ago now and it sounds like a warzone...I'd hate to live there!

I reckon though, that being as close to America as Mexico is, they won't let it get out of hand...I mean...they sorted Cuba out didn't they...

Ooops...

No.

It will be dicey. Insurgency is very difficult to control, and that is essentially the nature of the cartels

AbaddonFidelis wrote:Just curious to see what you all think is going to happen over the next 5 years or so in mexico. I tend to think the govt will win, but who knows........ the drug guys sure are killing alot of people. What a mess.

Whoever wins, we lose. Oh wait, wrong thread.

More people have died in the drug wars in the last year than have died in the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Its a mess.

The Mexican government could try and go into the drug business themselves and try to run the cartels out of buisiness with the full weight of a military and machinery of government in place.

Quote - "National Intelligence chief Guillermo Valdes said on 2 August that more than 28,000 people had died in drug-related violence since 2006. "

Source - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-10681249

s.j.mccartney wrote:More people have died in the drug wars in the last year than have died in the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, the deaths in Mexico are essentially criminals fighting the government which is an entirely internal matter. Though as sure as soon as the Oil supply is threatened, Team America (including sidekick United Kingdom Kid - now with posable action figure with realistic bending over and taking it up the bottom action!) will swoop in and sort out these bad people who are shooting and torturing people so they can sell their drugs.

It looks bad. Very bad. They'll sort it out though.

SilverMK2 wrote:

s.j.mccartney wrote:More people have died in the drug wars in the last year than have died in the conflict in Iraq and Afghanistan.

However, the deaths in Mexico are essentially criminals fighting the government which is an entirely internal matter. Though as sure as soon as the Oil supply is threatened, Team America (including sidekick United Kingdom Kid - now with posable action figure with realistic bending over and taking it up the bottom action!) will swoop in and sort out these bad people who are shooting and torturing people so they can sell their drugs.

Tell that to the 50 or so illegal immigrants who were trying to cross through mexico into the US, were rounded up, robbed, and executed wholesale. Its a slaughter down there. Feth Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. We need the army here. NOW.

Imagine Mexico getting invaded by the American army. If we mess a drug cartel army sting badly, imagine the PR reprecussions at home, AND the millions of people of hispanic descent who live within the United States...

Frazzled wrote:Tell that to the 50 or so illegal immigrants who were trying to cross through mexico into the US, were rounded up, robbed, and executed wholesale. Its a slaughter down there. Feth Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. We need the army here. NOW.

I'm not trying to say what they are doing isn't wrong and sometimes quite horrible, however, it is still an internal matter as far as I am aware (we don't get all that much news from Mexico here), committed by private citizens on other citizens and/or government forces. They are not, again as far as I am aware, exactly what you would call either freedom fighters or terrorists. The Mexican government hasn't called for help tackling them (though I would not be surprised if a lot of them are owned by the cartels).

Again, as far as I am aware, there is no reason for any outside forces to get involved in Mexico at this time. It would be nice to think that they will be able to clean themselves up, though I doubt that they will be able to without some significant house cleaning and serious firepower.

You're correct in thats its not a revolution. There is no insurency here. You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

But we still need the security on OUR border. Columbia managed to push the drug cartels out. they went north. If Mexico succeeds the survivors will be looking for a new home.

Frazzled wrote:You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

Sorry, when I was saying "help" I meant direct forceful intervention (the general gist of the thread being on military action in Mexico).

WarOne wrote:Imagine Mexico getting invaded by the American army. If we mess a drug cartel army sting badly, imagine the PR reprecussions at home, AND the millions of people of hispanic descent who live within the United States...

You mean klike BlackJack Pershing did or Scott did?

I don't think anyone's advocating we invade Northern Mexico. Why?

It could be said that our direct intervention has a large part of why this is all happening. Violence on this scale was not happening pre-Calderon, who's War on Drugs reeks of American involvement. The violence is already spilling over the border, and once middle class white people start getting affected by it, then we'll get involved.

Frazzled wrote:You're correct in thats its not a revolution. There is no insurency here. You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

But we still need the security on OUR border. Columbia managed to push the drug cartels out. they went north. If Mexico succeeds the survivors will be looking for a new home.

Yeah but going north puts them in Texas, where people actually own guns and arent afraid (dare i say enjoy) to use them.

DutchKillsRambo wrote:It could be said that our direct intervention has a large part of why this is all happening. Violence on this scale was not happening pre-Calderon, who's War on Drugs reeks of American involvement. The violence is already spilling over the border, and once middle class white people start getting affected by it, then we'll get involved.

It could be, but that would be a lie.

Frazzled wrote:You're correct in thats its not a revolution. There is no insurency here. You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

But we still need the security on OUR border. Columbia managed to push the drug cartels out. they went north. If Mexico succeeds the survivors will be looking for a new home.

If they went somewhere else it would be another Latin country. Why would they try to set up shop in a foreign (language and culturally speaking) country with a strong central government.

evilsponge wrote:

Frazzled wrote:You're correct in thats its not a revolution. There is no insurency here. You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

But we still need the security on OUR border. Columbia managed to push the drug cartels out. they went north. If Mexico succeeds the survivors will be looking for a new home.

If they went somewhere else it would be another Latin country. Why would they try to set up shop in a foreign (language and culturally speaking) country with a strong central government.

Derp thats where the money is derp.

So what? They've already proven they can make plenty of money in the U.S. through connections with local gangs like the Latin Kings and MS-13 without the cartel being in the country. Besides being in the country puts the top brass of the cartel in danger of actually being arrested (that just doesn't happen in Latin America)

evilsponge wrote:So what? They've already proven they can make plenty of money in the U.S. through connections with local gangs like the Latin Kings and MS-13 without the cartel being in the country. Besides being in the country puts the top brass of the cartel in danger of actually being arrested (that just doesn't happen in Latin America)

Doesn't happen here either...

Frazzled wrote:

evilsponge wrote:

Frazzled wrote:You're correct in thats its not a revolution. There is no insurency here. You're incorrect in that they are asking for help. We are sending them millions in aid right now to help fight this.

But we still need the security on OUR border. Columbia managed to push the drug cartels out. they went north. If Mexico succeeds the survivors will be looking for a new home.

If they went somewhere else it would be another Latin country. Why would they try to set up shop in a foreign (language and culturally speaking) country with a strong central government.

Derp thats where the money is derp.

We may have the money, but they're already shipping drugs to us with little to no problem. It would be a pretty horrible business move to shift their base of operations to the states, with our not-as-incompetent enforcement agencies and higher standard of living when they can move to yet another South American cesspit where their labor is nearly free and the cops are in their pocket.

Of course, that assumes that the Mexicans can root out the cartels in the first place.

Frazzled wrote:

DutchKillsRambo wrote:It could be said that our direct intervention has a large part of why this is all happening. Violence on this scale was not happening pre-Calderon, who's War on Drugs reeks of American involvement. The violence is already spilling over the border, and once middle class white people start getting affected by it, then we'll get involved.

It could be, but that would be a lie.

So you think American politics have had no influence on the Mexican governments stance on drugs? Why is that we threatened to remove all aid if they legalized drugs then? Which they did anyway for personal amounts.

Then it clearly had no impact.

Yes but they were originally considering total legalization, so it did work.

DutchKillsRambo wrote:It could be said that our direct intervention has a large part of why this is all happening. Violence on this scale was not happening pre-Calderon, who's War on Drugs reeks of American involvement. The violence is already spilling over the border, and once middle class white people start getting affected by it, then we'll get involved.

The interesting thing about counter insurgency warfare, which is the nearest analogue to this sort of violence, is that the use of more force will tend to increase the overall level of violence until a certain threshold is reached. The effect of the surge in Iraq is a fairly good example of this.

SilverMK2 wrote:

Frazzled wrote:Tell that to the 50 or so illegal immigrants who were trying to cross through mexico into the US, were rounded up, robbed, and executed wholesale. Its a slaughter down there. Feth Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. We need the army here. NOW.

I'm not trying to say what they are doing isn't wrong and sometimes quite horrible, however, it is still an internal matter as far as I am aware (we don't get all that much news from Mexico here), committed by private citizens on other citizens and/or government forces. They are not, again as far as I am aware, exactly what you would call either freedom fighters or terrorists. The Mexican government hasn't called for help tackling them (though I would not be surprised if a lot of them are owned by the cartels).

Again, as far as I am aware, there is no reason for any outside forces to get involved in Mexico at this time. It would be nice to think that they will be able to clean themselves up, though I doubt that they will be able to without some significant house cleaning and serious firepower.

It's not an internal matter, though. The cartels have their people all through this country, selling drugs and murdering people here. As far as them being freedom fighters, forget it. They own a lot of the government and police in Mexico. Any Mexican I know is frightened for their families down there, because these guys are also into kidnapping. Most times, even if the ransom is paid, the victim ends up dead.
A friend of mine has a brother whose car was taken by one of the cartel members and was told not to take it back or he'd end up dead. This same brother narrowly missed being kidnapped because he let one of the people that worked in his business use his car. The car was attacked and the worker barely escaped by running into a crowd.
This crap is the real deal down there and the guys dealing it out are definitly not freedom fighters in anyone's book, no matter how it gets spun.

The Drug Lords seem to have the upper hand. They're not constrained by laws, morals, or human decency.