Hi there!
There seems to be consensus on dakka that the Blood Angels Vanguard Veterans are pretty reliable thanks to Descent of the Angels. My question is: How reliable are they? I guess that pretty much depends on the enemy unit placement and the terrain. But let's leave out the terrain and only consider one enemy unit that we want to charge.
Where to place the Vanguard Vets?
The "Safe bet": Put the first model 8" away from the enemy unit. This means that even if we scatter 6" towards the enemy, there's still 1" distance -> no mishap (included in that calculation: 1" for one of the vanguard vets to touch the
DS "center" vet). However, if they don't scatter at least 1" towards the enemy, they're just standing there and cannot move, cannot run, cannot shoot, cannot assault :(
So obviously, we need to get closer. How close? Every inch makes it less likely that we just stand there and cannot assault, while increasing the chance that a mishap happens... I'd guess something around 4" is a good distance, so a mishap is somewhere around 2/3 (scatter) * 1/4 (goes towards enemy unit) * 2/3 (goes more than 3 inches towards enemy) = one in 9?
On the other hand, with a 4" distance from
DS "center base" to enemy, we need to scatter more than 3" away to not to be able to assault anymore. So again, that seems roughly like a 1 in 9 chance.
(Ok it's not a perfect calculation, as "towards the enemy" is pretty coarse, but then again, there might be difficult terrain, other units blocking, ...)
So basically, 1 in 5 times (did I mention the calculations are not perfect), one squad of vanguard vets will mishap or not be able to attack? Or did I oversee something? Maybe my Math is off?
Side note:
As soon as you have enough marines to start a second circle, the chances will increase, as you can point that "second ring" marine towards the enemy to shorten the distance or point it away to avoid collisions. So 8+ men vanguard squads have slightly better odds: If they are 5" away, their chance of mishap is 2/3 (scatter) * 1/4 (scatter towards enemy) * 1/2 (scatter 4+ inch) = 1/12. Same for not being able to attack. Final odds: about 1 in 6, maybe a bit better