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Yeah, this is something I think about from time-to-time. I generally apply incompetence, but sometimes I get to thinking that the heads of GW have a purely commercial and thereby antagonistic relationship with their customers. I think it's something that happens when the management can't relate to their customers, and Tom Kirby's background seems to point to that being a possibility.
EDIT: also all the other groups mentioned.
You're right to an extent. If management removes themselves too far from interaction with the customer, the end result in this disassociation is reduced customer satisfaction and eventually reduced earnings. Look at the backlash over "New Coke" back in the day for a good example of how this works.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
RunicFIN wrote: Let´s try to remember anyhow that DakkaDakka and other online communities are just a fraction of the total wargamers in existence, and we cannot know what the majority of wargamers think as none of us actually interact with but a fraction of them/only see what a fraction of wargamers actually think. Most don´t use/actively post on forums nor voice their opinion. Just because here or on other forums there is a belief that GW is going under because of a general opinion formed from being unsatisfied doesn´t mean much in the total scale of things.
It is also a fact that the most active users are the most passionate about their hobby on average, and therefore have stronger feelings and ideas about it. The majority aren´t such people and they are more likely to be fine with the way things are. I know a lot of people who don´t care about things such as psykers in 7th edition, "plain" codices and the like. They are perfectly happy and not even interested that much when it comes to the small things that on the other hand make some people even quit completely.
A lot of people talk like they know what is going on in whole countries or even continents regarding the general consesus. They probably don´t.
There could be 3200 active forum posters saying that GW is going under, that the game is bad and whatever other negative things are being said. And then there´s the hundreds of thousands who don´t use said forum, forums or any forums at all that might be just fine with how things are and happily buying more, resulting in the forementioned being a tiny minority that won´t probably affect anything at all. The situation may very well be that 12% of total wargamers are saying that the game is bad, GW is going under and all that jazz, and 88% being fine and continuing to support and buy GW´s product. Doing bad even for years in a row doesn´t mean much in the end.
Wargamers not active on online communities/forums outnumber us who voice our opinions by a massive amount. And none of us knows what the actual majority of all wargamers think. You might know DakkaDakka, and a few other forums.
[spoiler]
On-line dissatisfaction isn't why I believe GW is slowly going down.
It's their financial reports and analysis of data by people who understand such things. Could they be wrong? Sure. But on-line discontent or poor GW performance in my local area isn't the reason I believe.
(I'm glad those spoiler tags are so easy to work with.)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/10 15:58:35
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A lot of people talk like they know what is going on in whole countries or even continents regarding the general consesus. They probably don´t.
I'll just pull this line out which covers most of what you're getting at.
What we have are statements from the largest distributors and retailers in Australia saying that the new Dystopian Wars rule book outsold 7th ed 7:1. Other independent retailers across the globe have reported similar cases where GW is shrinking.
While you're correct that forum users are indeed a minority of all wargamers, the actual representation of negative to positive is completely unknown.
Everything we do know, from financial reports, to statements from retailers/distributors, to mass anecdotal evidence doesn't paint a pretty picture for GW. How bleak or pretty that picture is is certainly up for debate, but its not ideal, I'll say that much.
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Blacksails wrote: Other independent retailers across the globe have reported similar cases where GW is shrinking.
This could also be a minority of all independent retailers, though. There´s quite many of those, would need quite a list to see whole picture.
Blacksails wrote: While you're correct that forum users are indeed a minority of all wargamers, the actual representation of negative to positive is completely unknown.
Yeah, it is. I thought I mentioned that too. Incase I didn´t, anyway, yeah. Must say it would be interesting to see the absolute end total. If only there was a way to make a poll into which every wargamer in existence would respond without exception.
RunicFIN wrote: Let´s try to remember anyhow that DakkaDakka and other online communities are just a fraction of the total wargamers in existence, and we cannot know what the majority of wargamers think as none of us actually interact with but a fraction of them/only see what a fraction of wargamers actually think. Most don´t use/actively post on forums nor voice their opinion. Just because here or on other forums there is a belief that GW is going under because of a general opinion formed from being unsatisfied doesn´t mean much in the total scale of things.
It is also a fact that the most active users are the most passionate about their hobby on average, and therefore have stronger feelings and ideas about it. The majority aren´t such people and they are more likely to be fine with the way things are. I know a lot of people who don´t care about things such as psykers in 7th edition, "plain" codices and the like. They are perfectly happy and not even interested that much when it comes to the small things that on the other hand make some people even quit completely.
A lot of people talk like they know what is going on in whole countries or even continents regarding the general consesus. They probably don´t.
There could be 3200 active forum posters saying that GW is going under, that the game is bad and whatever other negative things are being said. And then there´s the hundreds of thousands who don´t use said forum, forums or any forums at all that might be just fine with how things are and happily buying more, resulting in the forementioned being a tiny minority that won´t probably affect anything at all. The situation may very well be that 12% of total wargamers are saying that the game is bad, GW is going under and all that jazz, and 88% being fine and continuing to support and buy GW´s product. Doing bad even for years in a row doesn´t mean much in the end.
Wargamers not active on online communities/forums outnumber us who voice our opinions by a massive amount. And none of us knows what the actual majority of all wargamers think. You might know DakkaDakka, and a few other forums.
On-line dissatisfaction isn't why I believe GW is slowly going down.
It's their financial reports and analysis of data by people who understand such things. Could they be wrong? Sure. But on-line discontent or poor GW performance in my local area isn't the reason I believe.
(I'm glad those spoiler tags are so easy to work with.)
Twice now you've posted that you believe that Tom Kirby, CEO of a publicly traded company is deliberately and blatantly violating his fiduciary duty by lying to shareholders regarding GW not doing market research as part of their business plan in the quarterly financial reports sent to investors. You support your claim that Kirby is lying by saying that it's theoretically possible for CEOs to lie to shareholders, CEOs of other companies have lied to shareholders for various reasons, that you personally believe he's lying and that nobody on dakka and prove wtih certainty that Kirby isn't lying. The paradoxical nature of you dismissing people's criticism of GW and opinion of their business practicing as unfounded hate and unsubstantiated misguided misconceptions but then making the claim that GW's CEO is lying to share holders because you personally find his statements hard to accept as true is stunning and casts you in a poor light.
I´ve only said it´s possible, copy paste me where I state that it is so. And also prove it, if you deem it´s impossible.
I also said there are other possibilities than Kirby smoothing things out in investors eyes with public letters and statements ( which is by the way something that happens every day in business. ) Lying and presenthing things in a different light are different things. Smoothing out the edges for investors isn´t illegal. Lying that they made 20% more profit than last year if they only made 5% ( or anything else ) is illegal. Ofcourse I guess laws can and will vary in different countries.
It casts you in a poor light to put words in my mouth and make what I say seem more extreme by leaving out the details I already wrote.
GWdoesn't care about pleasing its customers. It doesn't know what we want
Can you prove that there aren´t people within Games Workshop that care about their customers? Can you prove "GW doesn´t know what we want"?
Market research doesn´t cover even half of the things that comprise "knowing what the community wants" incase we are talking about the same thing. And just because someone has said they don´t do market research doesn´t actually mean anything. You can bet GW follows their competitors and is staying aware of the market and it´s shifts. The idea that they really would function completely blind as a multimillion company is absurd and fictional. Ofcourse they do research on some level.
Thing is, none of you actually know, you assume. So do I, but I´ve spent enough time in the world of corporate business to know there´s not a single company as big as GW that doesn´t do any kind of research. Just doesn´t happen, and a pseudo PR statement from someone like Kirby doesn´t really prove anything. He might infact be completely oblivious to some of the things the company does ( like research for example ) or he might be trying to build trust and visions of a positive future to investors by making it seem like they don´t need to do anything to dominate the market. I´ve seen that happen before too but I won´t mention any names.
You can stop quoting Kirby now, as it really doesn´t mean anything on a concretical level. In the end it´s just words. And if you ( not directed at an individual ) don´t trust GW and their word in anything positive, why do you take something negative like Kirbys statement about research as the ultimate truth?
If the highlighted portion of your post I quoted above is supposed to mean, imply or infer something other than GW does market research because no company as big as GW would not do market research regardless of published statements from the CEO in official investor reports, please tell me what it is you meant.
Yes, GW does, to a an extent, care about what their customers want or at least care about their satisfaction with their products. GW has a customer service department which makes it demonstrably true that they care about their customers.
Again, when a CEO makes an official statement to shareholders regarding the company's business plan I take that statement at face value and hold it to be true unless it's proven otherwise. Your personal opinion may be that GW should do market research but your personal opinion isn't sufficient evidence to determine that Kirby is lying or ignorant of how the company he runs really operates.
Yeah. There's three options:
1.) GW doesn't do any market research. This seems to fit their general corporate attitude and the attitude reflected in the chairman's preamble.
2.) GW DOES do market research, and Kirby knows it, in which case, he lied to investors in a document meant to keep investors apprised of the financial activities of the company, which would include market research.
3.) GW DOES do market research, but Kirby doesn't know that, which means he doesn't know his own company's operations on even a relatively broad level and/or doesn't have anything to do with the company's strategy on even a relatively broad level, which smacks of incompetence.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/10 21:20:58
RatBot wrote: Yeah. There's three options:
1.) GW doesn't do any market research. This seems to fit their general corporate attitude and the attitude reflected in the chairman's preamble.
2.) GW DOES do market research, and Kirby knows it, in which case, he lied to investors in a document meant to keep investors apprised of the financial activities of the company, which would include market research.
3.) GW DOES do market research, but Kirby doesn't know that, which means he doesn't know his own company's operations on even a relatively broad level and/or doesn't have anything to do with the company's strategy on even a relatively broad level, which smacks of incompetence.
I think that you are misinterpreting the purpose for a Chairman's Preamble. While most companies use this space to communicate useful information to investors; some use it as a cheering section or soapbox to speak from. It has no legal relevance other than being a platform of communication from the Chairman to investors. Hardly anyone reads them as the legally required data is held in the actual report, not the preamble. Unfortunately, it seems that Mr. Kirby views the preamble as a place to...well, amble and he even admits as such in the most recent report. It's a testament to the fact that the majority of GW shares are held by institutional investors that he's allowed to maintain his position and write such tripe in official reports; however, he does not illegal in saying what he does.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
RatBot wrote: Yeah. There's three options:
1.) GW doesn't do any market research. This seems to fit their general corporate attitude and the attitude reflected in the chairman's preamble.
2.) GW DOES do market research, and Kirby knows it, in which case, he lied to investors in a document meant to keep investors apprised of the financial activities of the company, which would include market research.
3.) GW DOES do market research, but Kirby doesn't know that, which means he doesn't know his own company's operations on even a relatively broad level and/or doesn't have anything to do with the company's strategy on even a relatively broad level, which smacks of incompetence.
I think that you are misinterpreting the purpose for a Chairman's Preamble. While most companies use this space to communicate useful information to investors; some use it as a cheering section or soapbox to speak from. It has no legal relevance other than being a platform of communication from the Chairman to investors. Hardly anyone reads them as the legally required data is held in the actual report, not the preamble. Unfortunately, it seems that Mr. Kirby views the preamble as a place to...well, amble and he even admits as such in the most recent report. It's a testament to the fact that the majority of GW shares are held by institutional investors that he's allowed to maintain his position and write such tripe in official reports; however, he does not illegal in saying what he does.
Fair enough, which is why I didn't at least directly accuse him of doing something illegal, because I don't know exactly how much the preamble must be based on factual information, if at all. Still, I don't know how "We do no market research!" would be reassuring to any investors who actually consider GW to be an important part of their portfolio, especially with ever-decreasing performance figures. I would assume the chairman's preamble should be where the chairman reflects on the company's successes and addresses where they can shore up weaknesses, since that's what investors would care about (well, care about beyond actual performance figures).
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/10/10 21:30:04
RatBot wrote: Yeah. There's three options:
1.) GW doesn't do any market research. This seems to fit their general corporate attitude and the attitude reflected in the chairman's preamble.
2.) GW DOES do market research, and Kirby knows it, in which case, he lied to investors in a document meant to keep investors apprised of the financial activities of the company, which would include market research.
3.) GW DOES do market research, but Kirby doesn't know that, which means he doesn't know his own company's operations on even a relatively broad level and/or doesn't have anything to do with the company's strategy on even a relatively broad level, which smacks of incompetence.
I think that you are misinterpreting the purpose for a Chairman's Preamble. While most companies use this space to communicate useful information to investors; some use it as a cheering section or soapbox to speak from. It has no legal relevance other than being a platform of communication from the Chairman to investors. Hardly anyone reads them as the legally required data is held in the actual report, not the preamble. Unfortunately, it seems that Mr. Kirby views the preamble as a place to...well, amble and he even admits as such in the most recent report. It's a testament to the fact that the majority of GW shares are held by institutional investors that he's allowed to maintain his position and write such tripe in official reports; however, he does not illegal in saying what he does.
Fair enough, which is why I didn't at least directly accuse him of doing something illegal. Still, I don't know how "We do no market research!" would be reassuring to any investors who actually consider GW to be an important part of their portfolio, especially with ever-decreasing performance figures.
GW's such small fish that it's probably an intern running the account for the institutions; nobody actually reads the preamble anyway as it's usually just platitudes to either explain why a company has had record profits and still just offering 1cent dividends or, in GW's case, "Had a great year" while profits are down 40%. Such investors don't care anything about the company as long as trends are stable and they're still paying a dividend.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
RatBot wrote: Yeah. There's three options:
1.) GW doesn't do any market research. This seems to fit their general corporate attitude and the attitude reflected in the chairman's preamble.
2.) GW DOES do market research, and Kirby knows it, in which case, he lied to investors in a document meant to keep investors apprised of the financial activities of the company, which would include market research.
3.) GW DOES do market research, but Kirby doesn't know that, which means he doesn't know his own company's operations on even a relatively broad level and/or doesn't have anything to do with the company's strategy on even a relatively broad level, which smacks of incompetence.
I think that you are misinterpreting the purpose for a Chairman's Preamble. While most companies use this space to communicate useful information to investors; some use it as a cheering section or soapbox to speak from. It has no legal relevance other than being a platform of communication from the Chairman to investors. Hardly anyone reads them as the legally required data is held in the actual report, not the preamble. Unfortunately, it seems that Mr. Kirby views the preamble as a place to...well, amble and he even admits as such in the most recent report. It's a testament to the fact that the majority of GW shares are held by institutional investors that he's allowed to maintain his position and write such tripe in official reports; however, he does not illegal in saying what he does.
Fair enough, which is why I didn't at least directly accuse him of doing something illegal. Still, I don't know how "We do no market research!" would be reassuring to any investors who actually consider GW to be an important part of their portfolio, especially with ever-decreasing performance figures.
GW's such small fish that it's probably an intern running the account for the institutions; nobody actually reads the preamble anyway as it's usually just platitudes to either explain why a company has had record profits and still just offering 1cent dividends or, in GW's case, "Had a great year" while profits are down 40%. Such investors don't care anything about the company as long as trends are stable and they're still paying a dividend.
Makes sense to me. I assume it's the continual issuing of dividends that's keep people invested in GW. I am certainly no investment analyst but I'd say that continually dropping sales, and cost cutting just to keep profits steady are not signs of a healthy company, nor one I would invest in with the hopes of making money in the long term. If I just wanted some quick dividend payouts, though, then sure.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/10/10 21:33:43
RatBot wrote: Makes sense to me. I assume it's the continual issuing of dividends that's keep people invested in GW. I am certainly no investment analyst but I'd say that continually dropping sales, and cost cutting just to keep profits steady are not signs of a healthy company, nor one I would invest in with the hopes of making money in the long term. If I just wanted some quick dividend payouts, though, then sure.
The dividend payments, and the fact that GW just isn't that important. Large investment businesses don't work by spending lots of effort trying to predict the future of every company they invest in, they buy a diverse range of stocks so that their investments on average provide a net profit regardless of the individual performance of those stocks. GW's numbers are superficially decent, and you don't realize how bad their situation is unless you spend a lot of effort learning about GW. So these businesses will continue to own shares of GW until their problems become so obvious that even a brief glance at the share price and financial report will say "this is a doomed company", and then they will dump their shares according to the automatic procedures and buy stock in some other company. And nobody in the investment company will care at all about the change, GW's decline will just be one number among many to be averaged out.
There is no such thing as a hobby without politics. "Leave politics at the door" is itself a political statement, an endorsement of the status quo and an attempt to silence dissenting voices.
Makes sense to me. I assume it's the continual issuing of dividends that's keep people invested in GW. I am certainly no investment analyst but I'd say that continually dropping sales, and cost cutting just to keep profits steady are not signs of a healthy company, nor one I would invest in with the hopes of making money in the long term. If I just wanted some quick dividend payouts, though, then sure.
I owned GW stock for much the same reason until the mid-year report when the stock fell and automatic measures that I had in place sold the stock for me. GW management are playing a middlegame whereby they are gutting the company to maintain share price stability and investor confidence. It's funny that people complain about GW being unresponsive but I emailed investor relations back when finecast first started with my concerns and received a return message from Tom Kirby's office a few days later.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
agnosto wrote: It's funny that people complain about GW being unresponsive but I emailed investor relations back when finecast first started with my concerns and received a return message from Tom Kirby's office a few days later.
Would it have helped that you emailed as a stockholder rather than a customer?
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
Pacific wrote: Out of interest what sort of reply did you get Agnosto?
It just stuck to the party line that he felt it was a good move for the company, that they were aware of quality issues and were working towards sorting them out. I was a comparatively small shareholder so I'm sure it was written by a secretary or the like.
Six mistakes mankind keeps making century after century: Believing that personal gain is made by crushing others; Worrying about things that cannot be changed or corrected; Insisting that a thing is impossible because we cannot accomplish it; Refusing to set aside trivial preferences; Neglecting development and refinement of the mind; Attempting to compel others to believe and live as we do
So, now that 7th ed. WH40K has been out for a while, how are its sales doing?
Locally... it is doing not so good - but at least one 2nd ed 40K game has sprung up....
The Auld Grump
Kilkrazy wrote:When I was a young boy all my wargames were narratively based because I played with my toy soldiers and vehicles without the use of any rules.
The reason I bought rules and became a real wargamer was because I wanted a properly thought out structure to govern the action instead of just making things up as I went along.
I'm curious though. I don't expect a good first half, seeing as the only real big hitter was the release of 7th, part of which appeared in last year's report.
We'll see. It'd certainly be telling if they had another poor half. Maybe the quick release will help them, and maybe it'll only serve to burn out customers faster. Time will tell.
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TheAuldGrump wrote: So, now that 7th ed. WH40K has been out for a while, how are its sales doing?
Locally... it is doing not so good - but at least one 2nd ed 40K game has sprung up....
The Auld Grump
In my local area it hasn't done well at all. There was a huge surge of people selling armies and they had a hard time moving stock. They started pushing other games instead such as X-Wing, Malifaux, Warmachine and even Relic Knight.
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My view is that the current course of action will simply dump previously loyal customers as fast as or faster than before. However if GW can pick up new customers even faster, they will increase sales. So it will be interesting to see the half year results
I'm curious though. I don't expect a good first half, seeing as the only real big hitter was the release of 7th, part of which appeared in last year's report.
We'll see. It'd certainly be telling if they had another poor half. Maybe the quick release will help them, and maybe it'll only serve to burn out customers faster. Time will tell.
Well, let's see...
We've had a management statement that performance is "broadly in line with expectations" much like we did before the EOY report, and that didn't end well.
We have the release of their flagship product diluted across the accounting cutoff to a largely tepid response.
The release of Nagash and the End Times arc has undoubtedly been greeted largely positively, but it is very much for the poor relative of the product range, so while I don't doubt the impact will have been positive, the scope of the impact will likely be limited.
We have persistent rumours that the last two softcover two Codexes will be out this year, but accompanied by equally persistent rumours of limited models to accompany them. While BA, and even Necrons, are popular armies, the scope of the release might suggest again that it can only have a limited impact, even if it's the greatest wave of releases since the DE update.
More Hobbit.
Taking all that into account, it is very hard to make a case for a decent interim report. I suspect the End Times will do enough to shore things up for a bit longer, but it is difficult to forecast anything but another drop in revenue and profits. Indeed, if anything positive was in the cards the management report would be crowing about it.
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THE FUN HAS BEEN DOUBLED!!! 
