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i saw today in a poll on Fox news Sunday that Trump was leading possible 2012 GOP candidates.
he's pushing the laughable and disproven notion that President Obama wasn't born in the USA. and he's
leading? so, how far do you think he can stay on that bandwagon and be considered viable? or did he already
doom himself?

If the non-US birth story were true, why hasn't it been proved by now?

Kilkrazy wrote:If the non-US birth story were true, why hasn't it been proved by now?

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

Primary voters are very different from Presidential voters (they tend to be both more extreme, and less variant across the pertinent set). Both parties contend with this fact every election, but it may prove especially problematic for the GOP this cycle due to the high level of polarization in the party.

Divided they stand...

dogma wrote:Primary voters are very different from Presidential voters (they tend to be both more extreme, and less variant across the pertinent set). Both parties contend with this fact every election, but it may prove especially problematic for the GOP this cycle due to the high level of polarization in the party.

The Birther movement seems to me to be an issue that even divides Primary voters. it still floors me Trump embraces it so strongly.

edit: Kan't speel

The GOP candidates recently sometimes seem to be like the lineup for a vegas "where-are-they-now" show combined with people who could do really well on daytime "talk"shows or reality TV or gameshows. Maybe they'll nominate the winner of American Idol or maybe a UFC champion or Nascar personality next with Bristol Palin or Sylvester Stalone as a running mate. It's sad when so many of their senators and a few of their representatives (the ones that don't quote song lyrics to make a point when they have the floor of the house for their alotted minutes) are not nearly such clownish personas. Why do their potential presidential candidates seem to be like a bad joke unless you happen to think behavior on Survivor is a good method of judging character? Attention wal mart shoppers...

Most politicians tend to take extreme positions during the primary to appeal to their base. Everyone does it, heck, just look at the '08 elections. All the Democrats were trying to outdo one other on their anti-war bona fides, while the Republicans were playing up the social conservatism.

I don't care at all about the birther issue, but I think it would be nice to see some of Obama's grades and college records, like other presidents have released. Although he probably hasn't released them because it would probably cast a shadow on the "smartest president evah" meme.

edit: I do think it's a mistake for Trump to focus on the birther issue, I don't think Republican primary voters care about it that much.

biccat wrote:Most politicians tend to take extreme positions during the primary to appeal to their base. Everyone does it, heck, just look at the '08 elections. All the Democrats were trying to outdo one other on their anti-war bona fides, while the Republicans were playing up the social conservatism.

I don't care at all about the birther issue, but I think it would be nice to see some of Obama's grades and college records, like other presidents have released. Although he probably hasn't released them because it would probably cast a shadow on the "smartest president evah" meme.

edit: I do think it's a mistake for Trump to focus on the birther issue, I don't think Republican primary voters care about it that much.

but to nitpick any president with such inane things as old grades makes no sense. with all that's going on here and abroad just seems stupid.

and that was kind of what i was getting at. not that many people care about it, let alone believe it.

alarmingrick wrote:but to nitpick any president with such inane things as old grades makes no sense. with all that's going on here and abroad just seems stupid.

Given the prevalence of the "Bush was an idiot and Obama is smart" meme, I think that it would be an interesting comparison.

Gore, Bush, and Kerry all released their non-political records, so I don't understand why Obama hasn't released his. Unless there's something in there he doesn't want released that might tarnish people's opinion of him (for example, a few C's or F's his first year at Occidental).

alarmingrick wrote:and that was kind of what i was getting at. not that many people care about it, let alone believe it.

I agree that not that many people believe the "birther" crap, probably not even a majority of primary voters would vote for someone solely on that issue. But Trump seems to be bringing more to the table, and it appears that he has made a decision that he will gain more votes than he would lose.

Were I to vote in the primary, I don't think that I would be swayed one way or another on the birther issue. It's hardly something Trump would push for if he were elected president.

Although it dose raise a very interesting issue: how do you deal with a president who serves a term, but never met the Constitutional requirements to be President? Would we treat it like the House/Senate members who were too young and just sweep the whole thing under the rug, or would it affect any legislation that he signed into law?

I think, ultimately, Trump realizes (if he's actually serious about running) that he needs to stand on a gimmick in order to make up for all his other political shortcomings (once was a major contributor to the Democrats, persona derived as much from television as business, and a lack of personal charisma, among other things).


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biccat wrote:
Given the prevalence of the "Bush was an idiot and Obama is smart" meme, I think that it would be an interesting comparison.

Gore, Bush, and Kerry all released their non-political records, so I don't understand why Obama hasn't released his. Unless there's something in there he doesn't want released that might tarnish people's opinion of him (for example, a few C's or F's his first year at Occidental).

Considering that he was able to transfer to Columbia, I suspect that isn't the case.

dogma wrote:I think, ultimately, Trump realizes (if he's actually serious about running) that he needs to stand on a gimmick in order to make up for all his other political shortcomings (once was a major contributor to the Democrats, persona derived as much from television as business, and a lack of personal charisma, among other things).


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biccat wrote:
Given the prevalence of the "Bush was an idiot and Obama is smart" meme, I think that it would be an interesting comparison.

Gore, Bush, and Kerry all released their non-political records, so I don't understand why Obama hasn't released his. Unless there's something in there he doesn't want released that might tarnish people's opinion of him (for example, a few C's or F's his first year at Occidental).

Considering that he was able to transfer to Columbia, I suspect that isn't the case.

Well, he also failed to graduate Colombia with honors, yet somehow made it into Harvard.

I have a feeling that his success is more based on his charisma and speaking talent than intellectual prowess.

If what you're saying is true, there's no reason not to release the grades. Of course, now I'm sounding like a birther. Anyway, I find his refusal curious rather than indicting.

In my educational experience, grades meant being good at studying for a test, and I know plenty of extremely intelligent and knowledgable people who were mediocre students. I see plenty of very ignorant high schoolers getting straight As or close to it due to lowered standards.

I don't think good grades can really be taken seriously any more as an indicator of being intelligent (or even educated) given the skewed method of grading being different not only from one school to the next, but from one teacher to the next within the same school.

I am acquainted with two quite average people, not any more knowledgable about modern affairs than your daily news headline watcher, who either have or are working on masters degrees, one of whom works at a comic book store setting up displays and manning a cash register. I know a PhD currently trying to make a living as a writer, and a high school dropout who makes over $100,000 a year with his own business.

So sure, jump through your hoops kids, it will fool the human resources paperworkers that you are intelligent when you apply to become one of them, so surely it can fool the masses for cases like Dubya.

I don't really care either way, I think trump will fail. My question is why hasn't the issue been put to bed once and for all. It shouldn't be so difficult to just get the tea party to shut up about this with some concrete proof. Is there a strategy that makes sense not to just put it to bed already?

What do you mean by 'put to bed'? Do you mean prove it which has been done or get them to shut up about it?

A trump ticket would be an auto win for Obama. I'm all for it. The GOP candidates this year are all pulled straight out of the loony bin, so it fits that the biggest and craziest would lead them.

Andrew1975 wrote:I don't really care either way, I think trump will fail. My question is why hasn't the issue been put to bed once and for all. It shouldn't be so difficult to just get the tea party to shut up about this with some concrete proof. Is there a strategy that makes sense not to just put it to bed already?

They have a habit of moving the goal post, and also being totally insane. So Obama shows his birth certificate, and they bitch because its the short form certificate, or not the original (IE, the only one the state of Hawaii will release, the originals are kept by the state there) or my absolute favorite, that it says 'certificate of live birth' (both my long form and my short form say the same).

The governor of Hawaii (a republican) even personally viewed his original certificate to try and make the birthers happy, got nothing. On top of allll the birth certificate evidence, his birth was actually announced in the local paper, and they *still* won't shut up.

The funniest part is that being born in Kenya wouldn't even stop him from being president. His mom's an American, so under US law he's an American too (nothing says being born here is the *only* way to be a natural born citizen).

I was under the impression that a president had to be born in America to qualify. Could be wrong.

Nope, total myth. He has to be a 'natural born citizen' or a citizen at the time of the adoption of the constitution.

Now, its true that one of the Civil war amendments (14th I think) made it so that anybody who is born in the US is a natural born citizen, but this isn't restrictive. Congress can declare that everybody born with a birthmark on their ass is a citizen if they want.

biccat wrote:
Well, he also failed to graduate Colombia with honors, yet somehow made it into Harvard.

Honors graduation isn't a good predictor of being accepted into an Ivy. In general you need solid academic credentials, and a compelling application; honors can be a part of that narrative, but it can't be the whole of it. After all, there a re plenty of schools that are the equivalent of the Ivies in terms of respect within the Academy, especially if you're talking about specific departments. For example Ohio State and Michigan are generally though to have Political Science departments that are superior to the one at Harvard due to a heavier emphasis on quantitative methods.

biccat wrote:
If what you're saying is true, there's no reason not to release the grades. Of course, now I'm sounding like a birther. Anyway, I find his refusal curious rather than indicting.

It may be that his staff feels that releasing his grades without solicitation would be regarded as a direct play to the "I'm smarter than Bush" meme, and therefore be taken negatively.

The fact that people are still questioning whether Obama is an American or not goes to highlight the flaw of democracy, that even stupid people are allowed to vote.

And if Donald does run then this will highlight the second flaw, may the richest man win.

Thing is, the Republicans kind of assumed the damage to their brand was fixed with the good results in the 2010 elections. But they didn't really think it through, because the 2010 results were the product of a protest movement against the Democrats (and, weirdly, against the Republicans as well).

The core message of movement conservatism is still strong, still incredibly strong, and so there's still plenty of voters out there. They want to vote for pro-business people who want small government, just that a whole lot of them get pretty sceptical about any Republican who claims to believe in those things. And who can blame them, Republicans have been talking about that stuff for three decades and doing the exact opposite. It seems the voters are finally catching on.

So the time is right for a guy who can embody the message of conservatism, without any of the baggage of the Repubilcan party. The time is right for a self-made businessman to come in from the flanks and use his own story to sell the message of conservatism, free from the baggage of the established faces of the Republican party.

This would be a problem for Obama, except in this case that man is Donald Trump, and he's a buffoon. I mean, he could have come in and talked about how he made so much money, created so much wealth for America, and that he could run America like a business. But he didn't, instead he's kicked off his campaign talking about the birther nonsense. What an idiot.

Andrew1975 wrote:I don't really care either way, I think trump will fail. My question is why hasn't the issue been put to bed once and for all. It shouldn't be so difficult to just get the tea party to shut up about this with some concrete proof. Is there a strategy that makes sense not to just put it to bed already?

It's been resolved. The certificate of live birth has been shown. The birth announcement in the paper has been shown.

The people complaining about it are just putting their hands over their eyes and pretending no evidence has been shown, and then asking why no evidence has been provided. It's ridiculous.

If the Birthers went to view the original long form certificate in person, they would come back saying it was a plant.

Ahtman wrote:What do you mean by 'put to bed'? Do you mean prove it which has been done or get them to shut up about it?

What I mean is show an unbelievable maybe even a ridiculous amount of proof. Just make these people look like complete asses already.

For example my family has the bills, pictures, old 8mm film reals of bringing all my brothers and sisters home. Send someone into the crypts and get the bills, whatever. Maybe they are waiting to deliver this till later to really take the fight out when it matters though.

Andrew1975 wrote:What I mean is show an unbelievable maybe even a ridiculous amount of proof. Just make these people look like complete asses already.

For example my family has the bills, pictures, old 8mm film reals of bringing all my brothers and sisters home. Send someone into the crypts and get the bills, whatever. Maybe they are waiting to deliver this till later to really take the fight out when it matters though.

They have the certificate of live birth. They have the announcement in the paper on the day. That's absolute, knock down 100% evidence. Anyone who thinks that isn't enough is just a cynic throwing out lies in the hope the ill-informed will believe them, a partisan hack happy to ignore reality for the sake of attacking Obama, or a conspiracy nut inclined to believe every story about illegitimate power.

I'm not sure which one Trump is.

Trump did an awesome interview with CNN in the last few days, he certainly seems to want the US to be as awesome as it was pre-Obama/GFC...

DONALD TRUMP: We have a man right now that almost certainly will go down as the worst president in the history of the United States.

JANE COWAN: He says there's a good possibility he will run, and if he does he's clearly planning to draw heavily on his business credentials.

DONALD TRUMP: You know why they know my name? Because of success. That's why they know my name essentially. I built a very big net worth. I would love to put that ability to work for this country.

JANE COWAN: Donald Trump says Barack Obama has turned America into a joke.

DONALD TRUMP: Look at Libya, look at this mess. We go in, we don't go in. He shouldn't be removed, we don't want to remove him, we don't want to touch him. Nobody knows what they're doing.

JANE COWAN: In an interview on CNN that had host Candy Crowley with a look of disbelief on her face throughout, Trump outlined his approach to Libya.

DONALD TRUMP: Either I go in and take the oil or I don't go in at all.

CANDY CROWLEY: You'd just take their oil?

DONALD TRUMP: Absolutely. I'd take the oil. I'd give them plenty so they can live very happily. I would take the oil. You know, in the old days, …

CANDY CROWLEY: Wait, we can't go …

DONALD TRUMP: In the old days when you have a war and you win, that nation's yours.

I kind of hope Trump does run/win : they have to release things about their health and medical issues right ? At long, long last the truth about exactly what it is on his head will be revealed.

I for one will welcome our new moptop overlord.

The US controlled by a wealthy business orientated feller would be most welcome change.

I hope Joe the Plumber and Heidi Fleiss win. They were running successful businesses too until the democrats destroyed his customer base with natural disasters, and demonized her credibility with their probing investigations.

If it weren't for those meddling democrats with their ridiculous spending habits, the clean up process for the Dubya years would have looked so much brighter during the immediate four years following that 8-year long unnatural disaster.

Just imagine how much better the post-disaster years would have been you know, if the country was run by a profiteering rich guy with his own cult of personality? The only thing that could have made it any brighter would be if the whole thing was backed by a mandate from a nascar driver, an oil baron, a homophobic Jesus prophet, and the editorial staff of soldier-of-fortune magazine. Finally a leadership that can truly represent the Unity of our states.

Guitardian wrote:Just imagine how much better the post-disaster years would have been you know, if the country was run by a profiteering rich guy with his own cult of personality?

My god, that would have been terrible.