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I was at a tournament in Ireland this past weekend at the University of Limerick. An eldar player using a seer council had this happen...five bolter shots killed five fortuned jetbikes in a row. The eldar player, who is quite good with numbers, reckons that the odds of this happening are 1 in 411,501,495. So if you ever think your luck has run out on you remember the poor Eldar seer council and the five bolter shots.

olympia wrote:I was at a tournament in Ireland this past weekend at the University of Limerick. An eldar player using a seer council had this happen...five bolter shots killed five fortuned jetbikes in a row. The eldar player, who is quite good with numbers, reckons that the odds of this happening are 1 in 411,501,495. So if you ever think your luck has run out on you remember the poor Eldar seer council and the five bolter shots.

There once was a seer council in play
Causing destruction in many a way
One shot to each head
Left five faires dead
The dice gods said "nope, not today"

albinoork wrote:
There once was a seer council in play
Causing destruction in many a way
One shot to each head
Left five faires dead
The dice gods said "nope, not today"

Thread won.

albinoork wrote:

olympia wrote:I was at a tournament in Ireland this past weekend at the University of Limerick. An eldar player using a seer council had this happen...five bolter shots killed five fortuned jetbikes in a row. The eldar player, who is quite good with numbers, reckons that the odds of this happening are 1 in 411,501,495. So if you ever think your luck has run out on you remember the poor Eldar seer council and the five bolter shots.

There once was a seer council in play
Causing destruction in many a way
One shot to each head
Left five faires dead
The dice gods said "nope, not today"

*slowly stands up and starts clapping*

What does a jetbike need to save?

kronk wrote:What does a jetbike need to save?

I think the 1 in 411,501,495 factors in the to hit and wound in addition to the save (3+ rerollable).

I think it's a bit less than that, though pretty unlikely. Unless I did something wrong, 1 in 27 bolt rounds should drop a biker, so 135 shots should yield 5 headshots (3.7% chance per shot).

(2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3)*(1/3)

Still, that's some mighty fine dicing

EDIT: Actually, I think things get more complicated figuring the chances of picking up 5 dice and having all 5 pop a space elf (1 in 14348907?). Buuuut I'm not feeling that industrious

- Salvage

Proof that mathhammer is an exercise in futility.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Proof that mathhammer is an exercise in futility.

Best first reply, in any thread, ever.

Boss Salvage wrote:I think it's a bit less than that, though pretty unlikely. Unless I did something wrong, 1 in 27 bolt rounds should drop a biker, so 135 shots should yield 5 headshots (3.7% chance per shot).

(2/3)*(1/2)*(1/3)*(1/3)

Still, that's some mighty fine dicing

EDIT: Actually, I think things get more complicated figuring the chances of picking up 5 dice and having all 5 pop a space elf (1 in 14348907?). Buuuut I'm not feeling that industrious

- Salvage

My calculations agree with the 1:14 million (rounded) as above.
This assumes BS4 bolter shots hitting wounding and two failed saves five times in direct succession.

chaos0xomega wrote:
Proof that mathhammer is an exercise in futility.

Well, that's not true. It's statistics. While your Terminators may make every single 2+ save for 5 games in a row, that 6th game they'll fail every single one. While the mathhammer of things might not play out on a game to game basis, over time they all even themselves out between games.

OP, that story is incredible. I love it when there's folks out there who roll worse than I do

At the LV Throne of Skulls tournament, I failed 8 Fortune saves in a row, all re-rollable 3+ saves (and I have the opponent who won best IG to verify the fact). I am also routinely known for missing with all 5 of my Fire Dragon shots when I get them out of their Wave Serpent.

I still won best Eldar at the tourney though, so you can still win tournaments even with bad rolling =).

Also of note at the tournament, I had Eldritch storm scatter off of an enemy tank and onto mine making my tank give my opponent rear armor and the same game I had a Fire Prism shot scatter just enough off of his tank onto my Farseer and killed him, he was also Fortuned.

Dice are silly things!

I think it is what, an 89% chance to make a re-rollable 3+ save? So to fail 8 in a row in LV means I should have been playing the slot machines or something...?

That makes me wonder [back in 2nd edition] I had a single Grot model kill 3 Khorn Berzerkers in Close Combat.
I wonder what the ods of that are?

Anpu42 wrote:That makes me wonder [back in 2nd edition] I had a single Grot model kill 3 Khorn Berzerkers in Close Combat.
I wonder what the ods of that are?

Grots are hillarious and totally trump statistics. My favorite was when 20 grots (back when they were BS2) blew away a beefed up nurgle demon prince and then a lone chaos lord in the same game.

JackalLegion wrote:

Anpu42 wrote:That makes me wonder [back in 2nd edition] I had a single Grot model kill 3 Khorn Berzerkers in Close Combat.
I wonder what the ods of that are?

Grots are hillarious and totally trump statistics. My favorite was when 20 grots (back when they were BS2) blew away a beefed up nurgle demon prince and then a lone chaos lord in the same game.

All hail to the mighty grot!

+1 for best first reply to a thread too - brilliance

I approve of this thread

It's 14.3 million to one, roughly.

I suppose it's more likely if we assume that the dice are biased. My best guess is that the standard Citadel dice are biased towards ones when you roll them individually, but not so badly biased when rolling in groups. Since this is a Seer Council, they probably have different wargear, hence you'd be rolling for each model individually.

There's an article on here where a dude had his Statistics classes roll a die over and over and record the results. If I remember correctly, he got a probability of one being about 30%. So, if we assume all other numbers are equally likely, we have odds of 893,468 to 1 against.

It may not be obvious, but the probability of getting 5 wounds out of 5 Bolter shots is 242 to 1 against. Given that result, failing the 5 re-rollable saves is about 3676 to 1, assuming biased dice.

You also can't consider those rolls in a vacuum. You have to look at all the dice rolled in the entire game to start figuring odds.

Speaking of how awsome Grots are and their unbeliveble luck against odds.... I had 19 and a Herder get assaulted by 5 bloodclaws on bikes in a tourny (grots were protecting the flank).The Grots lasted 3 full game turns in CC in wich they rolled double ones twice to stay in combat and eventualy won (protecting a 5 man loota squad the whole time)!!

uhmmm... math....
let's do it!!!
A marine hits 2/3 times (3+)
a bolter wounds 1/2 times ( 4+)
a seer counciler fails its save only 1/3 times (3+)
a seer counciler fails its save a second time only 1/3 times (3+)
Let's combine these independent events makingevery event dependent from the previous one...
2/3*1/2*1/3*1/3 ... a marine kills a seer counciler only 1/27 times... the probability of the event: 5 marines kill an entire seer council of 5 is then... 1/27*1/27*1/27*1/27*1/27...
1/14348907...

Your opponent was definetely allowed to yell blasphemies against every god !!!

some tell tall tales of fun grot shtick
others write in language cryptic
statistics abound
results unfound
replies should appear in Limerick

Limerick??? I'm not that good with the english ( I think it was already clear)

punkow wrote:Limerick??? I'm not that good with the english ( I think it was already clear)

Limerick is a type of poem, those two I guess are limericks.

RatBot wrote:

albinoork wrote:

olympia wrote:I was at a tournament in Ireland this past weekend at the University of Limerick. An eldar player using a seer council had this happen...five bolter shots killed five fortuned jetbikes in a row. The eldar player, who is quite good with numbers, reckons that the odds of this happening are 1 in 411,501,495. So if you ever think your luck has run out on you remember the poor Eldar seer council and the five bolter shots.

There once was a seer council in play
Causing destruction in many a way
One shot to each head
Left five faires dead
The dice gods said "nope, not today"

*slowly stands up and starts clapping*

*stands up and joins the slow-clap*

@olympia

Do this for me: Buy lottery ticket

Inconvievable!

chaos0xomega wrote:Proof that mathhammer is an exercise in futility.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Proof that mathhammer is an exercise in futility.

.........
why, oh why do people keep saying these things? Seriously, think about what you just said. Probability (mathhammer) tells us an event is extremely unlikely to happen. When it does happen, it is noteworthy enough for all of is to comment on it........

Wait for it.

You're saying the tool that tells us something is highly imrpobable, is disproven when that event happens extremely infrequently? Tell me I'm not the only one who's sees how incredibly illogical that is?

This reminds me of a tournament I was at where I remarked to my opponent the odds of what he rolled as it was a large deviation from average, and he remarked that all the dice falling together and bouncing off each other altered the odds changed the odds and made probabailities innacutate.

It scares me a little to hear things like that. I just don't understand how people can fail to see the fact that trusting in "luck" is no different than knowing the odds and hoping for a favorable outcome. They are the same thing. Whether or not you "believe" in mathhammer doesn't alter mathematics.

Sigh.

Rant off. Our public education system needs to level up or something.

punkow wrote:

Your opponent was definetely allowed to yell blasphemies against every god !!!

No no, it wasn't in my game. Thankfully I was three tables away from this rift in the cosmos.

@reecius

I see ur point and ur rant is one to debate

But properblilty is more then logical if I most argue

Further more "luck" and estimated outcomes are arguliby different

For instance luck by defination is a beilef of one individuals superstion and/or religion

Properbilty is a logical answer to why 5 seers take head shots from individual bolter shots backed by modern mathematics

Yes it may be 1 in 14.3 million but it doesn't change the fact that it doesn't happen

Mathhammer doesn't alter mathematics I will get you that in fact it backs mathematics

to answer to players that believe multiple rolls or individual dice rolling better is also plausible

Air bubbles are formed in the flawed dice we all have that may or not alter the roll from low numbers to high

Now Not to say that the amount of friction rolled in a dice cubes path alters it's result but say rolling a die on a hill is going to be different from a flat surface or even a different surface. Who knows it could be the air bubbles as well turning that die from a 6 to a 1 or the amount of friction on it's course but it defiantly doesn't affect the 1/6 ratio that player was describing for the ratio is a dependent variable therefore doesn't change

For example, a roll on a hill doesn't change a 1/6 ratio to a 1/3 that would be a false argument

My rant is done I would be glad to hear any counter arguments

@Looks Infected:

I apologize, but I was really unable to discern what you are trying to say. Could you perhaps elaborate with a few more punctuation marks and general cohesion?