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Ushtarador wrote:
Numerical simulation says a Skyray shooting at a Predator with 2 Markerlights has a 80% chance of dealing 11 or more wounds with 6 missiles. Not so bad I'd say.

It is when it only gets to do it once per game.

Why do Ethereals not matter in the 1st round?

Regarding math, either do it or don't. You can't just make up your own rules. If you want to break it down into the ordinal probability of either 2 or 3 hits, or figure out the precise probability of each wound total from 0-36, knock yourself out. But expecting 11 will definitely leave you at a strategic disadvantage.

xmbk wrote:
Why do Ethereals not matter in the 1st round?

Regarding math, either do it or don't. You can't just make up your own rules. If you want to break it down into the ordinal probability of either 2 or 3 hits, or figure out the precise probability of each wound total from 0-36, knock yourself out. But expecting 11 will definitely leave you at a strategic disadvantage.

IIRC, ethereals don't get to choose a buff until it's their turn.

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:
Numerical simulation says a Skyray shooting at a Predator with 2 Markerlights has a 80% chance of dealing 11 or more wounds with 6 missiles. Not so bad I'd say.

It is when it only gets to do it once per game.

Had a bug and corrected my post, it's 25% in fact.

I think the optimal target for a Skyray is multiwound infantry with a good invulnerable save (e.g. Custodes), but it's not a very large niche.

Ushtarador wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:
Numerical simulation says a Skyray shooting at a Predator with 2 Markerlights has a 80% chance of dealing 11 or more wounds with 6 missiles. Not so bad I'd say.

It is when it only gets to do it once per game.

Had a bug and corrected my post, it's 25% in fact.

I think the optimal target for a Skyray is multiwound infantry with a good invulnerable save (e.g. Custodes), but it's not a very large niche.

maybe medium armor, 2+ does a lot to negate AP-2, and broadsides with HYMP will do what the skyray does better in most cases

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:
Numerical simulation says a Skyray shooting at a Predator with 2 Markerlights has a 80% chance of dealing 11 or more wounds with 6 missiles. Not so bad I'd say.

It is when it only gets to do it once per game.

Had a bug and corrected my post, it's 25% in fact.

I think the optimal target for a Skyray is multiwound infantry with a good invulnerable save (e.g. Custodes), but it's not a very large niche.

maybe medium armor, 2+ does a lot to negate AP-2, and broadsides with HYMP will do what the skyray does better in most cases

Hence the good invulnerable save criteria. If you hit a model with 2+/4++ with AP-2, you make them roll the minimum save possible with no wastage of AP. With AP-3 or -4, if they aren't in cover, the extra AP is wasted as you reduce their AS to be worse than their invulnerable and so you waste some of it.

 A Town Called Malus wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

Ushtarador wrote:
Numerical simulation says a Skyray shooting at a Predator with 2 Markerlights has a 80% chance of dealing 11 or more wounds with 6 missiles. Not so bad I'd say.

It is when it only gets to do it once per game.

Had a bug and corrected my post, it's 25% in fact.

I think the optimal target for a Skyray is multiwound infantry with a good invulnerable save (e.g. Custodes), but it's not a very large niche.

maybe medium armor, 2+ does a lot to negate AP-2, and broadsides with HYMP will do what the skyray does better in most cases

Hence the good invulnerable save criteria. If you hit a model with 2+/4++ with AP-2, you make them roll the minimum save possible with no wastage of AP. With AP-3 or -4, if they aren't in cover, the extra AP is wasted as you reduce their AS to be worse than their invulnerable and so you waste some of it.

I get that, but having a narrow target of custodes isn't exactly screaming useful. The skyray is trash, and I can't think of a situation where it would be the best possible choice. Maybe a low armor, multi wound, high toughness unit, but only if it can deal meaningful damage with ~3 separate wound rolls.

The skyray is trash, and I can't think of a situation where it would be the best possible choice.

So either it's the best possible choice, or it's trash. Thank you internet

The missiles are hard to balance - too little and they don't do enough, too much and people whine because skyrays are able to frontload all their damage and alphastrike their army off the board.

Probably the simplest solution would be to give it a normal profile (akin to a Manticore), but then people would whine it lost its flavor. Another approach might be to raise the AP of the missiles to -3 or -4, but the Skyray is close to being balanced. People also always seem to forget about the 2 markerlights and 8 SMS shots on a resilient high BS platform.

Ushtarador wrote:

The skyray is trash, and I can't think of a situation where it would be the best possible choice.

So either it's the best possible choice, or it's trash. Thank you internet

The missiles are hard to balance - too little and they don't do enough, too much and people whine because skyrays are able to frontload all their damage and alphastrike their army off the board.

Probably the simplest solution would be to give it a normal profile (akin to a Manticore), but then people would whine it lost its flavor. Another approach might be to raise the AP of the missiles to -3 or -4, but the Skyray is close to being balanced. People also always seem to forget about the 2 markerlights and 8 SMS shots on a resilient high BS platform.

Most units have a general situation where they'd be a good pick, but the skyray does not especially in a game that does not favor jack of all trade units (unless they're incredibly broken, like scatbikes in 7th). And the SMS is a 24 point upgrade, that only provides more S5 AP0 (it does ignore cover, so mild use there) and fire warriors or gun drones cover that far better. It's also not particularly durable, being only T7 13W, and after 7 lost wounds it stops being BS3.

And I suppose "best possible choice" should be amended to "Do something better than broadsides or hammerheads (including forgeworld variants)" (which is what I meant, it doesn't need to be the best thing ever, just enough to have a place in the codex by being better at something than the rest of the choices in the same slot.)

 Wolfblade wrote:

IIRC, ethereals don't get to choose a buff until it's their turn.

But the reroll 1's still works. I like them surrounded by FW, who frequently aren't firing at the big target lit up by ML.

xmbk wrote:

 Wolfblade wrote:

IIRC, ethereals don't get to choose a buff until it's their turn.

But the reroll 1's still works. I like them surrounded by FW, who frequently aren't firing at the big target lit up by ML.

As long as they get a movement phase, yeah. That's the problem with them going second, you haven't had a movement phase yet, so you can't choose a buff.

The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

A coldstar suit makes an even better anti-air platform. 5 weapons (1 missile, 4 fusions). That has to hurt most flyers. Or you can take 5 missiles and do the same from a distance.

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

Except it isn't good at AA at all. Its AA role is purely a fluff thing, it gets no bonuses rules-wise.

Pottsey wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

A coldstar suit makes an even better anti-air platform. 5 weapons (1 missile, 4 fusions). That has to hurt most flyers. Or you can take 5 missiles and do the same from a distance.

Coldstars can only have 4 total weapons or support systems never 5 weapons.

Ice_can wrote:

Pottsey wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

A coldstar suit makes an even better anti-air platform. 5 weapons (1 missile, 4 fusions). That has to hurt most flyers. Or you can take 5 missiles and do the same from a distance.

Coldstars can only have 4 total weapons or support systems never 5 weapons.

That's not what it says in the codex. Replace the burst or missile for 2 different weapons giving you 3. Then add two extra for 5.

The intent is clear but once again GW fluffed the RAW. I would expect that to be errataed in the codex FAQ

Ice_can wrote:
The intent is clear but once again GW fluffed the RAW. I would expect that to be errataed in the codex FAQ

Been told there is also a picture in the codex with 5 weapons on it. Given the picture and how clear the rules are I think the intent is clear on 5 weapons.

Pottsey wrote:

Ice_can wrote:
The intent is clear but once again GW fluffed the RAW. I would expect that to be errataed in the codex FAQ

Been told there is also a picture in the codex with 5 weapons on it. Given the picture and how clear the rules are I think the intent is clear on 5 weapons.

Can't find this picture looking through the codex, highly doubt it's correct that the intent was 5 weapons.

I can't see it either, most suits have 3 weapons max and the coldstar suits are rocking the old school burstcannon missile pod loadout.
If you can provide a page number I'll reconsider but right now to me it sounds like someones just spreading misinformation.

Probably to get commanders nerfed harder.

Yep, Always malice. Never a mistake.

Ice_can wrote:
I can't see it either, most suits have 3 weapons max and the coldstar suits are rocking the old school burstcannon missile pod loadout.
If you can provide a page number I'll reconsider but right now to me it sounds like someones just spreading misinformation.

Probably to get commanders nerfed harder.

What a negative attitude you have. No one is spreading misinformation or trying to get commanders nerfed. The rule is very clear 5 weapons with restrictions of no ion weapons allowed and the 5th weapon has to be a burst or Missile.

This is dakka dakka its either OP and GW needs to nerf it or its useless. Don't try and use reasoning and logic on the internet. That may lead to a civil discussion, and if people are being reasonable to strangers on the internet, the world will end

I shall try and ensure my sarcasm is clearer in future.

 Peregrine wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

Except it isn't good at AA at all. Its AA role is purely a fluff thing, it gets no bonuses rules-wise.

Gee, GW failing to design something so it suits its role - you shock me, Peregrine...

 Peregrine wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

Except it isn't good at AA at all. Its AA role is purely a fluff thing, it gets no bonuses rules-wise.

Doesn't it have a Velocity Tracker?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I haven't seen the data sheet, but I was under the impression that it does. If it does, it's very accurate against aircraft (97% chance to hit with 5 MLs, even if the target has Hard to Hit).

Alcibiades wrote:

 Peregrine wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

Except it isn't good at AA at all. Its AA role is purely a fluff thing, it gets no bonuses rules-wise.

Doesn't it have a Velocity Tracker?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I haven't seen the data sheet, but I was under the impression that it does. If it does, it's very accurate against aircraft (97% chance to hit with 5 MLs, even if the target has Hard to Hit).

Indeed it does have Velocity Trackers.

Amusingly enough, something I hadn't really thought of is the slight benefit that "Hover Tank" can give you in targeting that kind of stuff versus normal ground-based stuff. Just a slight range boost.

Alcibiades wrote:
Doesn't it have a Velocity Tracker?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I haven't seen the data sheet, but I was under the impression that it does. If it does, it's very accurate against aircraft (97% chance to hit with 5 MLs, even if the target has Hard to Hit).

Oh, fair. I suppose that is a token bonus at least. But it's not really realistic to consider its damage output with 5 ML tokens, as that represents a considerable investment just to allow the Sky Ray to shoot. At that point the advantage over a bunch of conventional units hitting on 3s with a re-roll of 1s should do the job just fine without the burden of a single-role specialist.

Pottsey wrote:

Ice_can wrote:

Pottsey wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
The Skyray is an anti-air platform. It should be judged on its ability to take down things with the FLY keyword, few of which have battle-tank stats.

A coldstar suit makes an even better anti-air platform. 5 weapons (1 missile, 4 fusions). That has to hurt most flyers. Or you can take 5 missiles and do the same from a distance.

Coldstars can only have 4 total weapons or support systems never 5 weapons.

That's not what it says in the codex. Replace the burst or missile for 2 different weapons giving you 3. Then add two extra for 5.

It says:

This model may replace its high-output burst cannon and/or missile pod with two items from the Ranged Weapons and/or Support Systems lists.
This model may take two additional items from the Ranged Weapons and/or Support Systems list.

So when you replace two guns with two items, that's 2 items.
You can take two additional items.
Not sure how you're getting 5?

Because that's what the rule says. You can replace one or both of the BC/MP with two items. You can replace the BC with two items, replace the MP with two items, or replace both weapons with two items (the obvious wrong choice). Though TBH you could also read it as replacing each weapon with two items, for a total of six.

(Good job GW, writing clear rules!)

 Peregrine wrote:

Alcibiades wrote:
Doesn't it have a Velocity Tracker?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
I haven't seen the data sheet, but I was under the impression that it does. If it does, it's very accurate against aircraft (97% chance to hit with 5 MLs, even if the target has Hard to Hit).

Oh, fair. I suppose that is a token bonus at least. But it's not really realistic to consider its damage output with 5 ML tokens, as that represents a considerable investment just to allow the Sky Ray to shoot. At that point the advantage over a bunch of conventional units hitting on 3s with a re-roll of 1s should do the job just fine without the burden of a single-role specialist.

Well, against stuff without Hard to Hit, it should have a 97% with one markerlight. And it's one of the only units in the codex that doesn't have a 4+ to hit -- there aren't any conventional units hitting on 3+ )other than hammerheads and the commander at 2+.)

Anyway, it should be judged on this basis, not its Predator-killing ability.