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Overall, I like this list. But I'm worried. In 1750+ games I normally have 40 Grey Hunters on the table. Beyond that the list is fairly close to what I normally bring (lots of Grey Hunters, supported by Thunderwolf Cavalry, Long Fangs and Scouts with few to no vehicles).

The basic idea is fairly obvious I think (which I count as a bad thing; good lists should have several choices available to them IMO):

Two Grey Hunter packs, two Long Fang Packs, and the Cavalry setup on the board.

Possibly the Scouts Infiltrate or Outflank, really just depends on the opponent.

The Wolf Lord and Terminator Wolf Guard are in a Drop Pod as is the Venerable Dreadnought and one Grey Hunter pack.

The Terminators and Dreadnought come down hard on Turn 1. The BS5 Plasma Cannon, 3 Combi-Plasma, and Assault Cannon can make short work of pretty much any infantry and light vehicles, but I added a Heavy Flamer for good measure (AP4 and ignores cover, can't say "no").

Turn 2 or 3 (usually turn 3 with the way I roll), the Wolf Scouts lead by a Wolf Guard Pack Leader with Combi Melta come in from behind enemy lines (if outflanking) while 10 fresh Grey Hunters toting double Plasma drop in where needed.

I decided the 60 points on a Venerable Dreadnought were worth it for the added survivability. I expect these units to take heavy fire, hopefully mitigated by the fact Cavalry is on the way and Long Fangs are laying down fire. I'll have a few objectives of my own held that the enemy just can't ignore so I won't have to worry about the entire enemy army, or if the enemy is dumb enough to do that I just bought time for the important units.

Anyone know if drop pods can contest objectives? Seems silly if they can but I suppose it makes some sort of sense...

I think the list is very 'in your face' which will be important at 2000 points. There will be a whole lot of firepower on the table and I need to screen for my objective takers and attempt to get these hard units in as quick as possible. The Wolf Lord is neigh invincible based off past experience, and the Wolf Guard themselves never have disappointed me in the 12 games with this load out. This will be the first time podding them however.

So rip it apart, I imagine there will be a few much needed critical comments about the list. I'll be play testing it this weekend but wanted to see if there are obvious flaws I may be overlooking.

Edit: Updated the Wolf Scout entry

Rhinos for the grey hunters

Why? So far, I've been okay on foot for taking hits without outright losing units and the mobility gain is negligible. Also with such a hard forward strike force I'm buying the 1-2 turns for them you would get in a Rhino anyways.

And what what would you suggest I take out to gain the 70 points for the two extra Rhinos? I could drop 60 points on the Venerable, but then it probably won't survive Turn 1 unless I'm lucky. Still would need to drop 10 more points.

10 man squads are a thing of the past I find 5 man razor back squads do a lot better

Thunder wolf cav seem to only work well for me if you put a decent lord with them

Wolf guard personally I only use them if Logan is on the field

Lone wolfs are a must they soak up so much fire power and mess with heads in kill points

Also why the hevey bolger in the long fangs seems really random I personally go 3 missile 2 lascannon in each squad

Just my thoughts but more troops would be better

Why are you giving your scouts sniper rifles with a meltagun?

If possible, I'd recommend squeezing out 30 points to upgrade your Battle Leader to a Lord.

Also, you don't need to list each and every single special rule and piece of wargear your guys have. We know all your guys in PA have frag and krak grenades. We know everybody's got ATSKNF, Acute Senses and Counter-Attack. Just listing the upgrades you bought is fine.

Legend wrote:10 man squads are a thing of the past I find 5 man razor back squads do a lot better

Funny, I've found the opposite. Currently my 1750/1850 army list has been squashing the razorspam lists when they go head to head. The Plasma has been able to pop the transports reliably and 10 Grey Hunters decimate 5 man MEQ.

Plus the free Plasmagun is a godsend. They're generally on the move and have a 12" range, but having 4 AP2 shots that hit on 3+ and wound on 2+ is just wonderful. Especially if the enemy is also Space Marine and is running around with 5 man squads...

Legend wrote:Thunder wolf cav seem to only work well for me if you put a decent lord with them

I actually downgraded to the WGBL from a WL as I found the difference wasn't great enough to warrant a Lord. 5 I5 S6 power weapon hits (hitting on 3+ and wounding on 2+; usually but not always with Saga of the Warrior Born) are enough to decimate. The one extra attack and wound haven't turned out to be necessary, and Saga of the Bear on a T5 model is a waste.

Legend wrote:Wolf guard personally I only use them if Logan is on the field

You don't use them as pack leaders? Or do you mean them being in Terminator armor? I know most people don't seem to like Wolf Guard Terminators but since I'm generally hoofing it and the point difference is a total of 5 points more for Terminator armor for the same wargear I've been happy with it.

Legend wrote:Lone wolfs are a must they soak up so much fire power and mess with heads in kill points

I hear you here. I love Lone Wolves. Usually try to squeeze 1 in but thought the Dreadnought would be more useful since I can't just drop pod in terminators by themselves.

Legend wrote:Also why the hevey bolger in the long fangs seems really random I personally go 3 missile 2 lascannon in each squad

Saturation of fire, no-brainer sacrificial model for wounds, and to keep the cost of the Long Fangs down. Not to mention how not worth the money it is to try to get all those Missile Launchers. If I wanted to spend 60+ dollars on a unit, I'd be getting a Land Raider instead of Long Fangs.

The Lascannons have been able to pop heavy transports well enough (I have bad luck with S8 weapons against AV14), and you'd be surprised how many MEQ casualties you can inflict with heavy bolters.

Legend wrote:Just my thoughts but more troops would be better

Totally agree! Just can't do that and the drop pods unfortunately. I suppose I could always take my 1850 list and just add another Rune Priest but figured since the points are there I might as well try to get creative.

Teln wrote:Why are you giving your scouts sniper rifles with a meltagun?

Well when you take the Meltagun it replaces the Close Combat Weapon, leaving the guy a Pistol he'll never use. May as well spend the 3 points to put on a Sniper Rifle that I will sometimes use. Same with Mark of the Wulfen, he can't use close combat weapons so he's not affected by replacing a weapon with a Sniper Rifle.

Its a minuscule number of points and aside from looking cool, has turned out to be damn useful at times when I needed them to start on the board or when they came in from the wrong side of the table with no hope of getting close enough to assault. They actually won me a game once as they came on from the wrong side, ran, then next turn pinned a unit that was going to contest me on what ended up being the last turn of the game.

I pretty much always take this Wolf Scout unit just because of how excessively disruptive I manage to be with them. Just lucky I guess.

Teln wrote:If possible, I'd recommend squeezing out 30 points to upgrade your Battle Leader to a Lord.

Addressed this earlier in this reply. I don't think the 1 wound is worth 30 points, I'd rather try for Saga of the Warrior Born if I was going to be spending anywhere near that many more points.

Teln wrote:Also, you don't need to list each and every single special rule and piece of wargear your guys have. We know all your guys in PA have frag and krak grenades. We know everybody's got ATSKNF, Acute Senses and Counter-Attack. Just listing the upgrades you bought is fine.

I didn't list any special rules, but I did list the wargear. This is copy pasted from my Google Doc I keep for my Space Wolf army lists. I list all the wargear there since sometimes I need to see all the tools I have available when I'm playing around with the lists. Knowing some units don't have frags (e.g. the Terminators) can effect what I plan sometimes for example.


So from the responses I'm sensing that people are not for the drop pod idea, even if I'm not replacing drop pods with Rhinos/Razorbacks? I'm not going to be loading up all my army in transports like everyone else. Aside from being unnecessary it makes me easier to play against for several reasons (the enemy expects it, limits options for the rest of the army, the list will be more predictable in behavior, the list will generally be identical to everyone else's, etc).

Really it seems people think I should drop the Wolf Guard, Dreadnought, Drop Pods, and Terminator Wolf Lord, add more Missile Launchers and Grey Hunters and Rhinos? Again, sounds boring and identical to what everyone else normally brings, with all of its inherit weaknesses. But the feedback is useful so keep it coming! It is still making me rethink certain choices.

The last 1750 tourney i went to was something like

Bjorn the unstoppable house

4x 10 gh in rhinos 1 dp
2x 5 long fangs 2x miss 2x las
Vindicator
2x lone wolfs
5x scouts

I did well but since then been playing razor backs and never looked back it always looks immense 40gh on the board people do get worried seeing that but the rhinos were a must for me

I like this list a lot. Without a rune priest, you might see if you could find the 5 pts for another WTT for your Lord. Since you paid for the SS, and bought a TH, you would get the same statline and save 10 pts by putting him in runic. Leaving 5 for a Melta or Combi-something somewhere? Just an idea. Nice list though.

Well, I would post some comments here but you've so far had reasons for not following some of the comments others have posted, and mine are along those lines. Personally I feel the lack of mobility on a 10 man foot unit makes them near useless against more mobile mechanized lists since those lists can effectively keep out of your threat range while picking off the unit at range. Example, a 10 man squad on foot with a pair of Plasma Guns cannot effectively deal with a Razorback squad that has an Assault Cannon. Their Plasma Gun needs a 5 to glance, and that's assuming it doesn't kill itself (almost 6% chance per shot) in the process, and the TL Assault Cannon will likely be causing 3-4 wounds per turn, some of which might be rending.

5th edition does not lend itself well to static units, and without fleet, relentless, or flat-out higher speed (Jump Packs) a unit on foot is going to be prey for a unit with a transport, especially if that transport has guns. For example, a list fielding 2x Land Raider Crusaders could kill off your Wolf Scouts and your Wolf Guard, then spend the rest of the game killing your Grey Hunters at their leisure because they cannot get away from the Land Raiders and they cannot hurt them........

........Which brings me to the point that without significantly more melta fire in the list you are going to have trouble with anything AV13-14. Land Raider lists are not so uncommon and they will give you fits.

To be honest I think your list has some promise, but I think I would put the Wolf Lord on a Thunderwolf, drop the Wolf Guard except as Pack Leaders, drop the Venerable Dreadnought, and use the points to mech up your troops, take a Thunderwolf Cavalry unit to escort the Wolf Lord, and increase firepower. Having a Plasma Squad is a perfectly acceptable option, but I would run at least 2 units with Meltaguns to ensure you have an answer to AV14. Perhaps consider a third pack of Long Fangs with Missile Launchers, and try Plasma Cannons instead of Heavy Bolters on the 3rd unit.

Anyway, that's what I would do.

Actually, you are a bit wrong there with regards to the mobility issue and hitting power of plasma weapons. Or at least underestimating things.

If a non-fast transport is on the move it can fire one weapon if it moves up to 6". If it moves more than that it isn't firing anything usually. My troops on foot can move 6" and fire, the same as most transports. If a transport isn't firing, that's fine by me. If they are firing, well it depends on their weapon ranges.

And what are those usually? Depends on the army. Say its Space Marines since they are most popular. The range is going to be 24" usually. Assault Cannons, Plasma Guns, Storm Bolters, Boltguns, even Multi-Meltas. They are all 24" range at max. Lascannons or Heavy Bolters have a larger threat range (at least with regards to distance) but in the case of the former, its one shot and I have 10 bodies, and in the later I get my 3+ save on the probably 2 wounds they'll usually make.

Now what is my threat range? Discounting the Long Fangs, its also 24". The trade off is I have to be stationary to get that far of a shot with my Grey Hunters (not a problem with my Relentless Terminators). At 12" I'll have my two Rapid Fire shots (as will a Razorback with Twin-Linked Plasmaguns and Lascannon). Let's say I get to shoot at a Rhino/Razorback. 3+ to hit and I'm S7. That means I need a 4 to glance, and 5 or 6 to Penetrate.

I'm also getting 2-4 shots. Worrying about Get's Hot is just foolish IMO. You have a 3+ save. If you can't make it, well that's just very bad luck (worse luck than rolling a one to hit). Let's say its worst case scenario and I get 2 shots. With a 3+ I'm hitting 66% of the time, with S7 I'm damaging the vehicle 50% of time. Based on the damage chart of the vehicle, I'm always preventing said vehicle from shooting (unless I immobilize it), and I'm destroying it 33% of that time.

What is that, 10.5% chance to destroy a vehicle, per shot? V.S. a Meltagun's 24.5% per shot. Sounds bad right? Except Meltagun's are 12" range meaning I have 2 shots per every 1 Meltagun shot so they're roughly equal, 21% vs 24.5%. I personally think approximately 3.5% is a strong enough trade off for the anti-MEQ capabilities of Plasma, and the added bonus of range when I need it. Really they aren't that bad against light vehicles.

And the transports cargo? 8-10 Grey Hunters vs 5 Marines in power armor. If I'm unlucky, an IC as well. The 5 Marines can't charge when they disembark, but could shoot me. They'll usually have a Meltagun so one marine will die 60% of the time, then I get my armor saves. 10% chance per bolter shot to kill another MEQ. Unless I have the worst luck in the world and my opponent has the best, I'm not losing more than 2-3 marines, putting us on equal footing at worse, and I get to return fire with 2 Plasmaguns.

Also, that's only if the units are in a vacuum. Mine are working together, and by that, I mean things have to worry about the Thunderwolf Cavalry. Don't forget their mobility, and ability to damage most vehicles in assault.


And really, how much do I have to worry about the enemy staying out of range? This is an objective based game and I have enough mid sized units that I can spread out a bit while still being able to support one another. The 'hardest' game is Capture and Control which is probably going to be a draw if the opponent is clever (be it a 1 to 1 or 0 to 0). If its Seize Ground, however, things change dramatically.

We take turns placing objectives that are 12" apart minimum, AND 12" from a table edge. This 6'x4' table just got cut down to a 5'x3' table. Depending on the deployment type, I'm probably going to be holding multiple objectives that the enemy can't afford to ignore. The more objectives on the table, the better it is for me!


And who says these units are static? I doubt there is a turn where I end up holding a unit still to be honest, unless I really need the supporting fire. 5th edition is definitely about mobility and firepower, but really transports don't buy you much mobility these days, unless they are Fast (lucky Blood Angels!). What they do buy you is protection from lighter weapons, at a trade off of power. Maybe I'm just lucky and roll good on my armor saves, but with a 3+/4++ (hurray cover saves) I don't seem to have much trouble surviving. When I take a beating, I end up 4-6 models/squad unless its the tail end of the game, still dangerous footing for Razorspam armies, who won't have many transports left at this point.


All that said, I will give you that AV14 is sometimes a problem. The only other problem is this: Melta against AV14 only helps if I have a Multi-Melta within 12" of a Land Raider or a Meltagun within 6". I don't care about the AP1 so much as the 2D6 for armor penetration. S8 needs 6's after all (which is why I bring 2 Lascannons minimum) just to glance. This does nothing to stop the threat of the Land Raider (its contents).

Seriously, proxy games we've been playing... 10 Missile Launchers spent two turns of shooting at a Land Raider and only managed to shake it up, once. A Weapon Destroyed result would not have helped me (if it was AP1 it would have been a 3 instead of a 2 on the damage result table). With it not affecting the passenger's ability to assault, I pretty much have to sac a unit to whatever is in a Land Raider. It won't survive the subsequent turns, and the Land Raider will die before the game is out. Just not before the problem (its contents) are stopped..

So really that just says the Dreadnought should probably have a Multi-Melta and if I could find 60 points, add a Land Speeder with a Multi-Melta. But taking Meltaguns on the troops isn't going to be that much of a help for my list unless I scrap it and go mech, which I'm not going to do since my infantry list has been stronger than every Razorspam list I've come across. Its just way too easy to undercut the enemy's ability to capture objectives and retain 1-2 scoring units (in the more bloody games).

Incase you are curious, a single S8 shot is going to glance AV14 14% of the time. It will never penetrate. This means it has a ~3% chance to destroy a AV14 vehicle. If its an AP1 shot it increases to 5%. If its a Melta (meaning half range) AP1 shot you will destroy an AV14 vehicle 17.5% of the time. You need 6 shots to statistically guarantee (and we all know how statistics lie to you!) you destroy a Land Raider. Keep in mind, its the contents of the Land Raider that are the biggest threat, and they will now be 12" or 6" away from you, or less.

Playing the odds, you are going to lose a unit to whatever is inside the Land Raider. I find its better to mitigate the damage that unit can do while taking pot shots at the Land Raider, but to each his own.

Personally I think this is why Land Raiders are so spendy. They practically guarantee your unit will get where you want.


Edit: I do get what you are trying to say by the way, just realized it could be construed that i'm ignoring your advice. That's not the case. I do feel AV14 is a weakness, one that is painful to deal with. I just think that without throwing out the list and starting entirely over to maximize mobile Multi-Meltas, there's not much I can do to make a noticeable difference to what I currently have. Most lists luckily don't bring double Land Raiders, and other AV14 vehicles have weak points I can exploit.

I just think you might not be thinking through the mobility matter fully. The operation area is not a 6' x 4' table, its where the objectives are, and those tend to be clustered midfield. Its easy enough to get midfield. The hardest deployment type for all infantry is Spearhead actually, not Dawn of War. And even then, if its not Capture and Control, its not that big of a deal.

Well to give my 2cents on this,
the mobility thing is more that you can ensure that you get the 12" out of movement rather then the 6+d6" of a footslogger when moving up to gun range. Yes you have 24" of shooting range but on large boards you may not have anything in range. Plus when it comes to holding objectives a 12inch charge in a rhino can take an objective or if it's empty contest it when it really matters.

I think the one of the reasons people prefer meltaguns is that it makes the turn you assualt more effective. Looking at the average list you have 2 melta gun or at least 2 melta shots per squad; when you have to deal with whatever a landraider or equivalent is carrying, that's when melta comes to the front.
Now with I4 and holding plasma guns that sounds stupid and you are right, most of the time you would be better standing rapidfiring and letting them assault and get the attacks with counter charge but with BA, bezerkers or other furious charge models you need to grab the charge to deny their attacks.

While this may be of no relevence to your metagame, it is for some.

Blood Angels are one of my regular opponents. I definitely know the pain of dealing with Furious Charge Space Marines! At the same time though, given most Blood Angel units in my meta are Jump Infantry, well charging them with Grey Hunters is a bit tricky at times. I can either constantly retreat until I hit board edge (which is risky if I do end up in combat and have to fall back; and means i'm giving up objectives) or just deal with the fact I'm going to be charged.

I mean lets face it. Against someone who knows how to maneuver, the Jump Infantry can always charge regular Infantry. But that does mean I can end up in (extreme) Rapid Fire range on my own turn.

That said, mobile Melta weapons are needed. Working at a way to keep the army effective and have the Venerable Dreadnought, but I think I'll be dropping it so I can take a Land Speeder (or two) with Multi-Melta and replace its Plasma Cannon with a Multi-Melta.

Side note: In case anyone is interested in the Wolf Scout unit, I found out I equipped them inefficiently. I know will be running them like so:

Wolf Scout Pack (136 points)
1 with Scout Armor, Bolt Pistol, Sniper Rifle, Power Weapon, Frag and Krak Grenades
1 with Scout Armor, Meltagun, Close Combat Weapon, Power Weapon, Frag and Krak Grenades
1 with Scout Armor, Bolt Pistol, Sniper Rifle, Mark of the Wulfen, Frag and Krak Grenades
2 with Scout Armor, Bolt Pistol, Close Combat Weapon, Frag and Krak Grenades

Same wargear and point cost, just two vanilla scouts. I'm finding the extra body is wanted, and this way I don't have to spend more points. I could even add a 6th Scout and never really want for ablative wounds for the important models.

If you stick the power weapon on one of the vannila guys doesn't that make them all unique for wound allocation? Or are you just looking to keep the melta and a power weapon alive for as long as possible.

BTW how did the thunderwolves work out?

With regards to the Wolf Scouts, I've been finding in the last few games I needed 1-2 more casualties before I lost my Power Weapons. This has been mainly against Blood Angels (mech and Decent of Angels lists) and Eldar. I tend to hang on to the Meltagun easy enough, its just I end up losing power weapons after a single turn of use in some cases. Just getting one more naked scout to take hits will increase their combat effectiveness dramatically. In some cases I may end up squeezing another 15 points for a 6th member.

I really cannot understate the amount of carnage this one unit can inflict if used properly. It currently has my usual opponents overreacting to it just from the bad memories!

As for the Thunderwolves, they've been doing great. I still think the idea is silly, but the models I picked up are excellent. Really The two Thunderwolves I bring are just an escort for my HQ (typically a WGBL; really haven't been wishing for a third wound so feel no need to upgrade to a Lord). It takes some careful maneuvering to make sure other units are enough of a threat and to screen them, but I usually can get them into combat before they take more than 1 wound. Whatever they charge is pretty much guaranteed to be dead, usually. I just have to be careful not to allow I5 units to engage them unless I absolutely have to, otherwise they get eaten up pretty good.

3+ saves only go so far, and I can't justify 60+ points for Storm Shields just so I can be careless with them.

cowmonaut wrote:Actually, you are a bit wrong there with regards to the mobility issue and hitting power of plasma weapons. Or at least underestimating things.

If a non-fast transport is on the move it can fire one weapon if it moves up to 6". If it moves more than that it isn't firing anything usually. My troops on foot can move 6" and fire, the same as most transports. If a transport isn't firing, that's fine by me. If they are firing, well it depends on their weapon ranges.

Youre missing the point here. The idea is that the transport is a delivery system capable of putting your troops with a 12" rapid fire range within shooting distance of the enemy. For 35 points that 10 man Grey Hunter unit can move 12" on the first turn of the game (where they would otherwise be unable to fire anyway), pop smoke for a 4+ cover save, and they are 100% immune to anti-infantry firepower until something heavier takes out their transport. On your next turn, if the transport survived, they can move a further 12", disembark 2", and use their Rapid Fire weapons up to 12" giving them a single turn threat range of 26" plus base diameter with the full firepower of their weapons rather than a 24" threat range with only half effect. Regular Tactical Squads on foot work because they have a Missile Launcher for free that can fire 48" and blow up vehilces, or they can combat squad and half of them can drive forward in a Razorback while the others hang back and shoot. Grey Hunters have neither of these luxuries and so they NEED a transport to get into effective weapon range. Additionally, they have counter-assault and two close combat weapons which makes them super effective at receiving charges from just about anything outside of a dedicated melee unit and holding their ground or winning combat.

cowmonaut wrote:And what are those usually? Depends on the army. Say its Space Marines since they are most popular. The range is going to be 24" usually. Assault Cannons, Plasma Guns, Storm Bolters, Boltguns, even Multi-Meltas. They are all 24" range at max. Lascannons or Heavy Bolters have a larger threat range (at least with regards to distance) but in the case of the former, its one shot and I have 10 bodies, and in the later I get my 3+ save on the probably 2 wounds they'll usually make.

You are assuming I'm putting my TL Lascannon Razorback up against your 10 man squad, which is a falsehood. That 5 man unit in a Razorback has a vastly different role than the 10 man unit on foot, and it's suicide to rush the 5 man unit into combat. The case is different with 8-10 Grey Hunters in a Rhino who will move, fire, then accept a charge or get back in their Rhino and move the following turn if they end up unengaged.

cowmonaut wrote:Now what is my threat range? Discounting the Long Fangs, its also 24". The trade off is I have to be stationary to get that far of a shot with my Grey Hunters (not a problem with my Relentless Terminators). At 12" I'll have my two Rapid Fire shots (as will a Razorback with Twin-Linked Plasmaguns and Lascannon). Let's say I get to shoot at a Rhino/Razorback. 3+ to hit and I'm S7. That means I need a 4 to glance, and 5 or 6 to Penetrate.

Incorrect. Your threat range is 24" for one shot, or 18" for two shots, or 12" for a pistol shot followed by an assault. As for the LasPlas Razorback, again you are confusing the roles. First off, only Blood Angels effectively uses LasPlas since they are fast and can move 6" and fire both guns. Space Wolves prefer the TL Lascannon as accurate ranged suppressing fire capable of shaking or stunning vehicles.

cowmonaut wrote:I'm also getting 2-4 shots. Worrying about Get's Hot is just foolish IMO. You have a 3+ save. If you can't make it, well that's just very bad luck (worse luck than rolling a one to hit). Let's say its worst case scenario and I get 2 shots. With a 3+ I'm hitting 66% of the time, with S7 I'm damaging the vehicle 50% of time. Based on the damage chart of the vehicle, I'm always preventing said vehicle from shooting (unless I immobilize it), and I'm destroying it 33% of that time.

You are assuming the enemy doesn't have anything higher than AV11 on the board. A Plasma Gun doesn't help you much against a Predator or a Land Raider, but a Meltagun does. Additionally, you have a 5.5% chance per shot with Plasma to die from Gets Hot. 16.67% to roll a 1, 33.33% to fail a save, total 5.5%. So any turn where you double-tap, you have an 11% chance that the guy with the gun is going to die. With 2 of those in a unit that's a 22% chance during any given volley of fire that at least one of them will kill themselves. It's not "foolish" to worry about it. It's wise to know it can happen and plan for it.

cowmonaut wrote:What is that, 10.5% chance to destroy a vehicle, per shot? V.S. a Meltagun's 24.5% per shot. Sounds bad right? Except Meltagun's are 12" range meaning I have 2 shots per every 1 Meltagun shot so they're roughly equal, 21% vs 24.5%. I personally think approximately 3.5% is a strong enough trade off for the anti-MEQ capabilities of Plasma, and the added bonus of range when I need it. Really they aren't that bad against light vehicles.

No, Plasma is certainly NOT bad against light vehicles, but forsaking Melta entirely is a poor choice. I've found that having Melta on most of my Infantry and one or two units with Plasma works just fine.

cowmonaut wrote:And the transports cargo? 8-10 Grey Hunters vs 5 Marines in power armor. If I'm unlucky, an IC as well. The 5 Marines can't charge when they disembark, but could shoot me. They'll usually have a Meltagun so one marine will die 60% of the time, then I get my armor saves. 10% chance per bolter shot to kill another MEQ. Unless I have the worst luck in the world and my opponent has the best, I'm not losing more than 2-3 marines, putting us on equal footing at worse, and I get to return fire with 2 Plasmaguns.

Again, that's assuming the two units go head-to-head, or that your opponent is running Razorspam. That's also assuming your opponent doesn't run 2-3 units to take on your 8-10 Grey Hunters, in which case he clearly has the upper hand. You cannot compare the units in a vacuum, so you cannot say that your 10 Grey Hunters are better than the mounted units because a mechanized army plays a vastly different game than an infantry army.

cowmonaut wrote:Also, that's only if the units are in a vacuum. Mine are working together, and by that, I mean things have to worry about the Thunderwolf Cavalry. Don't forget their mobility, and ability to damage most vehicles in assault.

The mechanized units work together just fine. Easily as well as your units on foot, and they can be deployed quickly to any part of the battlefield protected in an armored shell.

cowmonaut wrote:And really, how much do I have to worry about the enemy staying out of range? This is an objective based game and I have enough mid sized units that I can spread out a bit while still being able to support one another. The 'hardest' game is Capture and Control which is probably going to be a draw if the opponent is clever (be it a 1 to 1 or 0 to 0). If its Seize Ground, however, things change dramatically.

We take turns placing objectives that are 12" apart minimum, AND 12" from a table edge. This 6'x4' table just got cut down to a 5'x3' table. Depending on the deployment type, I'm probably going to be holding multiple objectives that the enemy can't afford to ignore. The more objectives on the table, the better it is for me!

Not all games are objective based. 1/3 of the games revolve around KP's and 1/3 of the games have only one objective in each deployment zone. If your opponent has a fast unit, or a unit in a Land Raider, he can leave the majority of his force behind to shoot while contesting your objective and win the game. The other 1/3 of games actually require battlefield control, and your opponent STILL has the edge because unless you are playing spearhead, most of the objectives on the board will be outside of the deployment zones and faster armies have better battlefield penetration.

cowmonaut wrote:And who says these units are static? I doubt there is a turn where I end up holding a unit still to be honest, unless I really need the supporting fire. 5th edition is definitely about mobility and firepower, but really transports don't buy you much mobility these days, unless they are Fast (lucky Blood Angels!). What they do buy you is protection from lighter weapons, at a trade off of power. Maybe I'm just lucky and roll good on my armor saves, but with a 3+/4++ (hurray cover saves) I don't seem to have much trouble surviving. When I take a beating, I end up 4-6 models/squad unless its the tail end of the game, still dangerous footing for Razorspam armies, who won't have many transports left at this point.

There is NOT trade-off of power. A 10 man squad on foot and a 10 man squad in a transport is still a 10 man squad armed exactly the same. You can't buy QUITE as many units, but the loss in firepower is so negligible compared to the gain in durability and mobility that you CANNOT ignore it. I'm not saying you need to play Razorspam. I certainly don't because I don't enjoy it. I play with large units in Rhinos supported by a few Razorback units for firepower and objective holding. Usually I use the larger units to assault the enemy and follow up with the Razorbacks providing suppressing fire while seizing objectives. It actually works quite well.

What I don't understand is how you think that transports DON'T lend mobility. They move twice the speed of the unit inside, and while you cannot fire out of the top moving that fast, you likely didn't have range on the first turn anyway. And if you did have range after your transport moved, you could easily disembark and fire, at which point you are no worse off than if you had stayed back, and you get twice as many shots.

cowmonaut wrote:All that said, I will give you that AV14 is sometimes a problem. The only other problem is this: Melta against AV14 only helps if I have a Multi-Melta within 12" of a Land Raider or a Meltagun within 6". I don't care about the AP1 so much as the 2D6 for armor penetration. S8 needs 6's after all (which is why I bring 2 Lascannons minimum) just to glance. This does nothing to stop the threat of the Land Raider (its contents).

AV14 is always going to be a problem until you change up your list. You need Melta in almost every single unit in order to prevent your opponent from killing off the units that can hurt their Land Raider then driving it down your throat. Lascannons can get lucky from time to time, but by-and-large they do not destroy Land Raiders. They shake or stun them, which is the whole point of taking them. I field 4 TL Lascannons in almost every list I run, and I use them exclusively to harass the higher armor targets in my opponents list and keep them from shooting. The Meltaguns in the list do all the heavy lifting when it comes to destroying highly armored targets.

cowmonaut wrote:Seriously, proxy games we've been playing... 10 Missile Launchers spent two turns of shooting at a Land Raider and only managed to shake it up, once. A Weapon Destroyed result would not have helped me (if it was AP1 it would have been a 3 instead of a 2 on the damage result table). With it not affecting the passenger's ability to assault, I pretty much have to sac a unit to whatever is in a Land Raider. It won't survive the subsequent turns, and the Land Raider will die before the game is out. Just not before the problem (its contents) are stopped..

If you are firing Missile Launchers at Land Raiders then you are playing wrong. They should never fire at any target that they do not have a chance of penetrating. The reason people field 15 Missile Launcher wielding Long Fangs is because they can split fire against 6 different targets and are often able to cripple lightly armored vehicles like Rhinos or Chimeras and prevent them from advancing quickly. It's the Meltaguns in their infantry units that deal with the Land Raider, and though they might lose a unit to what comes out of the Land Raider, it's usually worth it to keep them on foot and pin them down.

cowmonaut wrote:So really that just says the Dreadnought should probably have a Multi-Melta and if I could find 60 points, add a Land Speeder with a Multi-Melta. But taking Meltaguns on the troops isn't going to be that much of a help for my list unless I scrap it and go mech, which I'm not going to do since my infantry list has been stronger than every Razorspam list I've come across. Its just way too easy to undercut the enemy's ability to capture objectives and retain 1-2 scoring units (in the more bloody games).

It would be more efficiently to drop the Venerable status from your Dreadnought, take a Multi-Melta and Heavy Flamer on it, and put it in a Drop Pod. That lets it drop in on a flank on turn 1 and potentially deal with a highly armored target early in the game.

Once again, I would like to point out that MECH DOES NOT EQUAL RAZORSPAM! They are NOT the same thing, and the fact that you equate the two says a lot. Yes, a Razorspam list is a mech list, but not all mech lists are Razorspam. I'll provide an example at the end of this post.

cowmonaut wrote:Incase you are curious, a single S8 shot is going to glance AV14 14% of the time. It will never penetrate. This means it has a ~3% chance to destroy a AV14 vehicle. If its an AP1 shot it increases to 5%. If its a Melta (meaning half range) AP1 shot you will destroy an AV14 vehicle 17.5% of the time. You need 6 shots to statistically guarantee (and we all know how statistics lie to you!) you destroy a Land Raider. Keep in mind, its the contents of the Land Raider that are the biggest threat, and they will now be 12" or 6" away from you, or less.

Playing the odds, you are going to lose a unit to whatever is inside the Land Raider. I find its better to mitigate the damage that unit can do while taking pot shots at the Land Raider, but to each his own.

Personally I think this is why Land Raiders are so spendy. They practically guarantee your unit will get where you want.

They don't guarantee anything. They just increase the odds. If your opponent has Melta in their list inside of a transport with a reasonable speed, that Land Raider becomes a 250+ point paperweight. It's only when your opponent has almost no firepower over S8 and almost no Melta in the list whatsoever that a Land Raider becomes absurdly powerful.

cowmonaut wrote:Edit: I do get what you are trying to say by the way, just realized it could be construed that i'm ignoring your advice. That's not the case.

No, you aren't ignoring the advice. You are counter-arguing against every piece of advice everyone is giving which is relatively frustrating when you are posting a list for commentary/critique. It's OK to explain why you have something in your list, or why you prefer a certain unit or piece of wargear, but when almost everyone that responds says you have a problem, and you continually argue that they have the problem and you are doing just fine, then it's time to look at what side of the argument you are on and perhaps consider that some of those people on the opposite side might know what they are talking about

cowmonaut wrote:I just think you might not be thinking through the mobility matter fully. The operation area is not a 6' x 4' table, its where the objectives are, and those tend to be clustered midfield. Its easy enough to get midfield. The hardest deployment type for all infantry is Spearhead actually, not Dawn of War. And even then, if its not Capture and Control, its not that big of a deal.

Operational area is absolutely a 6x4 table. The objectives might be where you want your scoring units, but consider an Imperial Guard opponent with multiple Leman Russ tanks and a Manticore. They can hit anything they want from anywhere on the board, so the safest place for them is well outside the range of your Lascannons and Missile Launchers. If you don't want them reigning death on you the entire game, you eventually have to send something to deal with them, be it infantry with Meltaguns, or Razorbacks that can move 6" and fire 48" with a Twin Linked Lascannon.



Moving along - Here is an example of a mechanized list at 2,000 points that is NOT a Razorspam list:

Njal Stormcaller - 245 (Rides in one of the Rhinos)
Wolf Lord (Thunderwolf, Wolf Claw, Storm Shield, Meltabombs, Saga of the Bear) - 235
3 Wolf Guard (3x Power Fist, 3x Combi-Melta) - 129 (Pack Leaders for the 8 man units)
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
5 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 155
5 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 155
2 Thunderwolves (Thunder Hammer, 2x Storm Shield) - 190
5 Long Fangs (4 Missile Launchers, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 190
5 Long Fangs (4 Missile Launchers, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 190 (Razorbacks deploy empty and act as extra firepower or backup transports. In Dawn of War they deliver Long Fangs to cover on turn 1.)
Total 1,999

There are 4 Razorbacks in the list, sure, but 2 of them deploy empty (except in Dawn of War) and the other 2 are primarily there for objective holding and suppression fire. The real threat of this list comes from the 24 Grey Hunters with Njal and their Wolf Guard Pack leaders that drive up the board supported by Thunderwolves. This is a highly aggressive list that uses near full-sized packs (1 slot in every transport is left open intentionally, so that Njal may embark on any transport in the event that his is disabled or destroyed) to pressure the enemy onto his back foot and then deliver a killing blow with the Thunderwolves. It has plenty of ranged firepower, and plenty of Melta fire to deal with things like Land Raiders. It has melee capability, psychic defense, mobility, and durability, all of which makes it a very strong contender in league and tournament play. I've played multiple games with lists very similar to this one and my win record it pretty strong, even against Razorspam and infantry lists. Imperial Guard gives it trouble from time to time, but against most other opponents I've felt a measure of confidence going into the game.

Perhaps give a list like this a shot sometime and see what happens. You might be surprised at how strong a mechanized list like this actually is.

I like you Aldarionn, you have spirit

I don't think I'm being very clear on my points and am not showing fully what I understand of mechanized lists and their versatility. I'll try to be more clear going forward. No sense me wasting my breath otherwise! Now you had a lot to say and I could continue quoting and rebutting to each and every thing but I really think I'm just not explaining myself fully so lets try this first:

We have two units of Grey Hunters:

Pack Mech is a fairly a-typical Grey Hunter pack in a Rhino. It has room for a Rune Priest to join if needed and is lead by a Wolf Guard Pack Leader with the most common/favored layout according to the Internet.

Pack Foot is what I typically bring, plus the same Wolf Guard Pack Leader (I used to run this setup but I've since changed my Wolf Guard into Terminators and don't all have Power Fists. Given only one of my Wolf Guard has an Assault Cannon I decided it wouldn't be a fair comparison to include that one as the pack leader).

I'm not including Rune Priests in this simply because both units can include them. Some may find that unfair. If you feel so I can factor that in, but its an equal advantage to both units in my opinion.

Let's break down the Threat Ranges first:

That's a fairly clear advantage to Pack Mech. They have a 70% larger threat range than Pack Foot when on the move.

Lets look at their Shooting Phase Threat Capability next. This assumes Combi-Weapons are fired to assess maximum capability. Ranges shown are maximum Threat Ranges from above.

This one is tougher to call as it depends entirely on what you are facing and the ranges involved. Let's break down the anti-tank (choosing their respective maximum ranges that show their strengths; Pack Mech is assumed to always be mobile while Pack Foot is not). All chances are shown per weapon.

Initially when I did the math I did it per weapon. Anything with over 100% chance I lowered to 99%, but I may be doing the math wrong (or the saying about statistics lying is more accurate than I ever believed before). 4/6 is the odds to hit, and I'm multiplying that by the odds that the penetration roll will be equal to (glancing) or greater than (penetrating) the AV. If I'm doing this wrong please someone correct!

Anyways, once you factor in the number of shots:

Keep in mind, the 2" range advantage assumes the pack is dismounting. If Pack Mech stays embarked on its transport, its range is equal to that of Pack Foot. That makes this a clear, albeit negligible advantage (at least IMO).

AV10-11 the 3 Plasmaguns and 2 Meltaguns are equal in their anti-tank capabilities. AV12-13 is when you start to see a dip, of 11%. To me this is an acceptable loss given the other advantages we'll get into later, but it is not inconsequential to most players. Again, to me it isn't a big enough difference to make me worry.

Meltaguns have a clear advantage when it comes to AV14, and a strong advantage against AV13 in that they can actually Penetrate.

Also, I'm not giving percentages for actual vehicle destruction at the moment. Really what I care about for my army is suppressing fire. I really don't care much if a tank is mobile unless its a Land Raider, for the most part. What I am worried about however is the firepower it can bring to bare since I'm not in a box. I need the suppressing fire in order to protect my Infantry since I'm not in transports.

But we have two other things to look at with regards to shooting capability! What about subsequent turns, or turns where otherwise you do not have a Combi weapon?

And this is where things get a little more interesting to me. The Meltagun + Rhino does have the 2" longer range, which again only comes into affect when you disembark. This again reinforces that Plasmaguns and Meltaguns are equal in dealing with the majority of vehicles.

Now what about against Infantry?

So, barring cover saves (which cut GEQ casualties in half for both Packs and lower MEQ casualties by 2 with the way I'm rounding) you should be able to inflict this many casualties. Possibly more. Possibly less. The Plasma ends up edging out against MEQ units. The extra shots at close range help against GEQ, but otherwise its the extra bodies (11 man vs 8 man) that make the difference.

So what have we learned so far? Meltaguns are effective for troops with a Transport. They are excellent against heavy vehicles (AV13-14) compared to Plasma. This much we knew already. What we also learned was that Plasma weapons are just as effective against light-medium vehicles (AV10-12) and are more effective against infantry (both light and heavy).

Yes, you DO have a 5-6% chance of dying per shot. For me, this is a non-issue. In the last 8-9 games I've had 3 casualties from this, and 9-11 Get's Hot rolls total. That's slightly more than one per game, but I also have 8-11 Plasma weapons minimum per game usually. I'm so fine with those odds for this trade off. Against other Marine armies Plasma is overall a major advantage.

What do I care of its effectiveness against AV14? Sure, shooting Missile Launchers at it may not be very effective or "doing it wrong", but my Long Fangs tend to be as I listed originally. That means 5 Missile Launchers and 2 Lascannons. Sometimes you just have to do the less effective method. And what if I had a Meltagun against it? Unless I'm within 6 inches of the Land Raider it doesn't even matter. I'd have to play against a bad player or someone who didn't otherwise think things through to get in Melta range with a Meltagun. Really you need S9/10 long range weapons or mobile Multi-Meltas (they have a 24" Melta range, a lot more effective). That's it for your reasonable options as a Space Wolf player IMO.

Against all other armor, AV10-13, I have enough shots being put out that I can at least suppress fire for a turn. That's all I really need, is to silence the guns. This is why I did not factor in the AP1 in the percentages, but I felt it necessary to note it in the original matrix.

Also, all of these numbers assume that the Meltagun is in a Rhino! With AV11 your Rhino is not going to last long generally so take 8" off of the maximum Threat Range when that happens. On foot, Plasma is just dramatically better and you just saw a comparison of mounted meltaguns vs foot plasma guns.

With my army on foot as it is I neutralize 6 AV12 vehicles a game without too much trouble. They may not all be destroyed, but they are at least reduced to weaponless boxes, and generally outside of contesting range (though not always). This is against Blood Angels, Eldar, and Chaos most of the time. I'm trying to arrange some IG and Tau opponents.

Yes, AV14 hurts. All this is showing me though is I should consider Land Speeders, Dreadnoughts, and Razorbacks for the Long Fangs. AV13 spam Necron lists may also give me some trouble, depending. I'll have to check out their codex and build a few lists and see. But really, 2 Land Raiders is 500 points. I can take about 30 Grey Hunters for that. Opponents are welcome to try to double rock me like that. They won't have the capability to kill enough models to win usually.

Aldarionn wrote:
Moving along - Here is an example of a mechanized list at 2,000 points that is NOT a Razorspam list:

Njal Stormcaller - 245 (Rides in one of the Rhinos)
Wolf Lord (Thunderwolf, Wolf Claw, Storm Shield, Meltabombs, Saga of the Bear) - 235
3 Wolf Guard (3x Power Fist, 3x Combi-Melta) - 129 (Pack Leaders for the 8 man units)
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
8 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Wolf Standard, Rhino) - 170
5 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 155
5 Grey Hunters (Meltagun, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 155
2 Thunderwolves (Thunder Hammer, 2x Storm Shield) - 190
5 Long Fangs (4 Missile Launchers, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 190
5 Long Fangs (4 Missile Launchers, Razorback w/ TL Lascannon) - 190 (Razorbacks deploy empty and act as extra firepower or backup transports. In Dawn of War they deliver Long Fangs to cover on turn 1.)
Total 1,999

There are 4 Razorbacks in the list, sure, but 2 of them deploy empty (except in Dawn of War) and the other 2 are primarily there for objective holding and suppression fire. The real threat of this list comes from the 24 Grey Hunters with Njal and their Wolf Guard Pack leaders that drive up the board supported by Thunderwolves. This is a highly aggressive list that uses near full-sized packs (1 slot in every transport is left open intentionally, so that Njal may embark on any transport in the event that his is disabled or destroyed) to pressure the enemy onto his back foot and then deliver a killing blow with the Thunderwolves. It has plenty of ranged firepower, and plenty of Melta fire to deal with things like Land Raiders. It has melee capability, psychic defense, mobility, and durability, all of which makes it a very strong contender in league and tournament play. I've played multiple games with lists very similar to this one and my win record it pretty strong, even against Razorspam and infantry lists. Imperial Guard gives it trouble from time to time, but against most other opponents I've felt a measure of confidence going into the game.

Perhaps give a list like this a shot sometime and see what happens. You might be surprised at how strong a mechanized list like this actually is.

I do like this list, though it spends more on HQ than I generally would so I'd have to tweak it a bit for my tastes. It also trades away other units I wanted to use for more Grey Hunters, which isn't entirely a bad thing. But it does kind of defeat the purpose of the list I posted originally.

So as I've been saying, the feedback seems to be ditch all foot and conform to all mech like everyone else because its "better" without measuring how much better (or not better) it is. If everyone brings lots of anti-tank, bringing a lot of tanks seems like a silly idea. I'd rather their anti-tank be wasted. My threat ranges aren't dramatically different against armor due to the amount of Plasma shots.

It does mean my army plays different, yes. But not dramatically. I need to make a quick matrix of these units in the assault, but I think it will be more of the same: roughly even. Which is a good thing by the way, it means GW balanced the army right for Mech vs non-Mech.

Some of your math is indeed wrong. You can never have more than a 100% chance for any given result. It's not statistically possible. In fact, a 100% chance is statistically impossible where 1's are auto-failures.

In order for the math to be correct you need to factor in the total number of shots at the first step.

Take these numbers:

Pack Mech
AV10 @ 26" range: 83% chance to Glance, 67% chance to Penetrate.
AV10 @ 20" range: 99% chance to Glance, 92% chance to Penetrate.
AV11 @ 26" range: 67% chance to Glance, 33% chance to Penetrate
AV11 @ 20" range: 92% chance to Glance, 56% chance to Penetrate
AV12 @ 26" range: 33% chance to Glance, 22% chance to Penetrate
AV12 @ 20" range: 56% chance to Glance, 50% chance to Penetrate
AV13 @ 26" range: 22% chance to Glance, 11% chance to Penetrate
AV13 @ 20" range: 50% chance to Glance, 44% chance to Penetrate
AV14 @ 26" range: 11% chance to Glance, 0% chance to Penetrate
AV14 @ 20" range: 44% chance to Glance, 39% chance to Penetrate

33% chance for a Glancing hit to destroy and a 50% chance for a Penetrating hit to destroy.
67% chance for all Glancing and Penetrating hits to result in a vehicle being unable to fire any weapons the next turn.

Pack Foot
AV10 @ 24" range: 44% chance to Glance, 33% chance to Penetrate
AV10 @ 18" range: 88% chance to glance, 66% chance to Penetrate
AV11 @ 24" range: 33% chance to Glance, 22% chance to Penetrate
AV11 @ 18" range: 66% chance to Glance, 44% chance to Penetrate
AV12 @ 24" range: 22% chance to Glance, 11% chance to Penetrate
AV12 @ 18" range: 44% chance to Glance, 22% chance to Penetrate
AV13 @ 24" range: 11% chance to Glance, 0% chance to Penetrate
AV13 @ 18" range: 22% chance to Glance, 0% chance to Penetrate
AV14 @ 24" range: 0% chance to Glance or Penetrate
AV14 @ 18" range: 0% chance to Glance or Penetrate

17% chance for a Glancing hit to destroy and a 33% chance for a Penetrating hit to destroy.
67% chance for all Glancing and Penetrating hits to result in a vehicle being unable to fire any weapons the next turn

This math is incorrect on several levels. First of all, for a single shot from each weapon there should be an X/6 chance for any given result. A Strength 8 weapon against an AV10 target will glance with a single shot 1/6 of the time, and penetrate 4/6 of the time. Thats a 16.67% chance to glance, and a 66.67% chance to penetrate. But the chance for that same weapon fired twice to score a result of some sort is actually just over 80%. The numbers for your Plasma Guns are wrong for this reason. When fired twice, you do not simply add the % chances together to get a total % chance. There is a lot more math involved.

Here is the correct math for both Meltaguns fired from the Mech unit at an AV10 vehicle:

Percentage chance for both Meltaguns to miss - 4/36 (11.11%)
Percentage chance for one Meltagun to hit - 16/36 (44.44%)
Percentage chance for both Meltaguns to hit - 16/36 (44.44%)
Total chance to score at least one hit - 32/36 (88.89%)

You then need to take those numbers and work out the chance to score a glancing/penetrating hit in the same manner. Then you factor all the numbers together based on their overall percentage and come up with a number. We'll use AV10 as an example.

If both Meltaguns hit, each one has an 1/6 chance to glance and a 4/6 chance to penetrate

Percentage chance for glancing hits if both Meltaguns miss - 0%
Percentage chance for penetrating hits if both Meltaguns miss - 0%
Total chance to score a result if both Meltaguns miss - 0%

Percentage chance for no results if one Meltagun hits - 1/6 (16.67%)
Percentage chance for glancing hits if one Meltagun hits - 1/6 (16.67%)
Percentage chance for penetrating hits if one Meltagun hits - 4/6 (66.67%)
Total chance to score a result if one Meltagun hits - 5/6 (83.3%)

Percentage chance for no results if both Meltaguns hit - 1/36 (2.78%)
Percentage chance for one glancing hit if both Meltaguns hit - 2/36 ( 5.56%)
Percentage chance for one penetrating hit if both Meltaguns hit 8/36 (22.22%)
Percentage chance for two glancing hits if both Meltaguns hit - 1/36 (2.78%)
Percentage chance for one glancing hit and one penetrating hit if both Meltaguns hit - 8/36 (22.22%)
Percentage chance for two penetrating hits if both Meltaguns hit - 16/36 (44.44%)
Total chance to score a result if both Meltaguns hit - 97.22

Total chance to score a result firing two Meltaguns at an AV10 target (80.22%). There is also an 11.11% chance for both Meltaguns to outright miss, and an 8.67% chance that one or both of the meltaguns will hit, but do nothing. I have not factored in Melta range.

I could further break that down into the percentage chance to destroy an AV10 vehicle, but I would really rather not spend the time working out the math. It's tedious. Suffice it to say, it's much easier to work out a statistical average number of times a given result is likely to occur than it is to work out the percentage chance that it WILL occur. Also, against AV10 targets you need to remember to include the Bolters into the equation because they will statistically score 1.78 glancing hits, and the Rhinos Storm Bolter can add additional glancing hits to the equation as well.

I think if you follow the proper math you will find that the Mech unit statistically performs better in more situations than the foot unit, and they can be re-deployed more easily than the foot unit. Transports lend mobility, durability and flexibility to a unit, so to be completely honest I would rather field 9 models in a transport with a Meltagun than 11 models on foot with a pair of Plasma Guns for the same price. The Plasma will be statistically better against MEQ's outside of cover, but considering there is so much cover these days I do not believe the lack of mobility is worth the increased firepower. Where Plasma actually comes in handy is against FNP troops like Blood Angels Assault Marines and Dark Eldar Wytches (or any unit with a Pain Token really), and against Terminators/Paladins. It's definitely worth including a unit with Plasma in the list, but definitely not on foot.

Ah I see what I did wrong (and thanks for pointing out the Bolter fire against AV10, totally overlooked when I was figuring the math out). Nice to see DakkaDakka has a Mathhammer article as well, makes correcting my mistakes easier!

So the matrices should look like this:



That looks better. I figured my math had to be wrong with the extra shots. This should be correct now though. Mind you, I'm rounding up when its .5 or higher or rounding down if its less. When this made a massive difference (AV13 at range) I did include the odds to affect it though.

Looking at this though, it doesn't change things as much as I had feared. The Meltagun is definitely more destructive, but for suppressing fire they are fairly even. Heck, against AV13/14 at full range they're statistically even. The Melta special rule definitely is strong for anti-tank.

The non-vehicle capabilities swing to Pack Foot IMO however. Pach Mech can reliably inflict 3-7 casualties depending on its target's toughness and armor save. At comparable range, Pack Foot will inflict 2-4 casualties. Cut the range down however and its destructive capabilities increase to 5-10 potential casualties.

I don't see the point in breaking down the assault capabilities. Since they're the same base unit, taking more bodies just increases its combat capabilities. So provided the units are intact, the advantage (slight as it is) would go to Pack Foot.

So really, this comes down to getting into contact with the enemy reasonably intact. In a vacuum, the obvious advantage goes to Pack Mech. It gets an extra 6" of movement and is in an AV11 box. But the game is not in a vacuum. All games are objective based. The only difference is with Kill Points, the enemy is the objective and they need to get into range to destroy you as well. There are a lot of things to take into account, and I'm not talking the availability of cover just yet.

More to come for sure, this is a good discussion and is definitely getting me to rethink some things. I still think a foot Space Wolves army is being underestimated. I want to get my next point, about maneuvering relative to the enemy, sorted out before I post. This is not at all the discussion I expected to have here but I'm glad to be having it. I was hoping for more points on how to make this list better without scrapping it entirely (and in my opinion, transitioning to mechanized list is scrapping it entirely). But this is good.

Well to be honest I think Space Wolves have a disadvantage over the other Space Marine codices when it comes to infantry/mixed lists. Let's have a look at some examples.

Space Wolves: Grey Hunter Horde backed up by Long Fangs and Thunderwolf Cavalry for Counter-Assault. This is a reasonable list that has some ability in close combat, but when it comes to their troops they suffer. Your opponent can concentrate on the Long Fangs with their own ranged firepower and depending on the mission they can castle up on an objective and send out fast units to contest other objectives. Additionally, Grey Hunters lack survivability on their own without additional support from other units, and so the list is somewhat static in comparison to a Mechanized list since most of the units want to remain in the vicinity of other units for support purposes.

Vanilla Space Marines: This army has a reasonable advantage over Space Wolves. Their infantry comes with Missile Launchers for free, and they have Combat Tactics and Combat Squads, making them far more flexible in their own right. They also have less expensive Terminators capable of bolstering their ranged capabilities and acting as counter-assault, and a character that supports them extremely well (Lysander), but they don't have reasonably priced Devastators, which makes Predators and/or Vindicators a more attractive option depending on the needs of the list.

Blood Angels: This army has unsurpassed durability against non-ordnance firepower. Sanguinary priests make an infantry list of any variety a much more viable option than either of the previous two armies, and their Devastators are much more reasonably priced than Vanilla Marines. Combined with the Red Thirst, it makes for a solid gun-line combination that will out-strip most other armies.

Grey Knights: This army is capable of putting together an excellent mixed gunline using just their basic infantry and Dreadnoughts. A Grandmaster gives them tactical flexibility that few other armies can enjoy, and moving barely affects their firepower at alll. Each unit can take a 50 point Razorback that can cast a psychic power to ignore any shaken/stunned results, and their Dreadnoughts are some of the best long ranged firepower in the game. They trade Melta for Psycannons which isn't quite as good, but they are capable of destroying any vehicle in the game and they get them in large enough numbers to make them extremely dangerous. They also have Power Weapons across the board, and their basic infantry can Deep Strike and make life hell for other Deep Strike armies, and their Dreadnoughts are the second most effective psychic defense in the game. This army as a mixed infantry/mech gunline is more tactically flexible and devastating than almost anything except Imperial Guard.

Black Templar: The ultimate mixed infantry list. Black Templars are surprisingly flexible and effective when it comes to fielding an infantry list. Their troops can take a Lascannon in a 5 man squad, their Terminators can take 2x Cyclone Missile Launchers in a 5 man squad, and their Land Speeder Typhoons are cheaper than anyone else's Land Speeders and can be taken in units of 3. At 1,750 a friend of mine runs a Black Templar list with 8 Land Speeder Typhoons, 10 Terminators, 15 Crusaders, a Marshall on a bike, and an Emperors Champion. That's 24 Missile Launchers and 3 lascannons as well as a smattering of Heavy Bolters and Storm Bolters.

If you want a mixed infantry/mech gunline force with maximum mobility, ranged firepower, and a decent close combat presence using some very nice models with a cool aesthetic, you would be far better off fielding Black Templars or Grey Knights than any other force. Space Wolves are one of the most competitive forces in the game, but as an infantry gunline I just think you are kinda barking up the wrong tree here. Unless you are willing to mechanize and play to the strengths of the Space Wolves (which I don't believe a list of this type does), then I think whatever you field will be at a disadvantage against an opponent with truly superior range and mobility.

Case in point, you are relying on infantry with rapid-fire weapons to carry the brunt of your light anti-tank abilities while moving to cover various objectives. What happens when you run up on a Dark Eldar Venom Spam list with Night Shields and Flickerfields on every vehicle, which gives them a 5+ invulnerable save against all results, and reduces the range of all of your guns by 6". That means if you move, you only get to fire if you are within 6" of them, and they are firing 12 poisoned 4+ shots at BS4 from every one of their 7-9 Venoms.

Don't get me wrong, if you want to play the list your way, then more power to you. If you have fun with it then that's all that matters. I simply think it could be made more effective by adjusting the tactic, or switching armies. Hell, you could even keep the Space Viking look and feel and just use a different codex as long as you model all the weapons in the right place. I firmly believe in using the codex that works best for the style of list you want to play. So with that in mind, consider what I've said so far and perhaps try a few different builds, and above all keep an open mind.