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I know people want to be the best that they can be but really guys?

Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another? Isn't this a dice game? Isn't any dice game just a game of chance? Why would you play this game by crunching numbers for every squad and every action if the point is supposed to do something crazy and let chance decide how amazing it is? Would you not assault because your squad will only do 4.333333333333333 wounds to a unit? Or do you take the chance that every model becomes a frackin ninja and tears the enemy to bits while shouting, or growling, or gurgling or whatever your race sounds like?

I use it more for comparative purposes. Like, how effective would a unit be against another under certain circumstances.

Never play like the math is going to win you the game, but if it can help make a good or at least not make a bad choice it's all good.

Dragoon65 wrote:I know people want to be the best that they can be but really guys?

Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another? Isn't this a dice game? Isn't any dice game just a game of chance? Why would you play this game by crunching numbers for every squad and every action if the point is supposed to do something crazy and let chance decide how amazing it is? Would you not assault because your squad will only do 4.333333333333333 wounds to a unit? Or do you take the chance that every model becomes a frackin ninja and tears the enemy to bits while shouting, or growling, or gurgling or whatever your race sounds like?

I for one am a numbers person. Now I will assult, and take a chance, and I do not break the numbers down like most...I round down a whole lot. But it's nice to know what your chances are so the unit is not a waste, and nice to know what your chances are with unit A and Unit B....so you are not throwing away men to a failed charge or wasting rounds you could put else were.
I mean if you know you had a 2% chance of winning a combat with one group and a 55% with the other...which one would you use?

Because taking the chance means you probably just threw a unit away. The point is, in fact, NOT to do something crazy, the point is to win the game. And you take the best route to doing that. You don't throw three scarab bases into a Dreadknight with Greatsword going HAY MIGHT GET LUCKY AND GET RID OF 2+ when math tells you that you'd be incredibly fortunate to so much as get to make attacks.

To ask the question another way, if you're at a blackjack table, sitting on a 19 with a lot of chips down, do you hit? Math says no, but TAKE THE CHANCE says yes.

Want to win in a hypercompetitive environment? Play the numbers. Don't care about winning (or at least, not hypercompetitively)? Ignore the numbers.

Dragoon65 wrote:Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another? Isn't this a dice game? Isn't any dice game just a game of chance?

Yes... and another word for 'chance' in that context is 'probability'

Why would you play this game by crunching numbers for every squad and every action if the point is supposed to do something crazy and let chance decide how amazing it is?

Because the chance isn't completely random. Probability plays a very large part in tactics.

Would you not assault because your squad will only do 4.333333333333333 wounds to a unit?

If there was a better chance of doing more damage by doing something else, no, I wouldn't charge.

Or do you take the chance that every model becomes a frackin ninja and tears the enemy to bits while shouting, or growling, or gurgling or whatever your race sounds like?

Not if I have any expectation of winning the game, no. Assaulting only has a point if your models have some actual chance of doing damage.



Whether or not you crunch the numbers to that extent, most players decide what to do based on what they think will be the best decision tactically. It's all probability, the difference is just in how carefully you figure it all out. If you're happy just pushing models around the board and not actually applying any tactics to the game, that's fine. But for a lot of gamers it's a game of tactics.

An overlooked aspect of playing the odds is that most inexpensive dice sets (Chessex for example) have a roll bias as each face is not perfectly even. Casino dice or zocchi dice, you can use the numbers more readily. There is something to say though if you have a dice brick that favors certain rolls it would be a good asset in a WAAC environment. While I could do simple averages like dice rolls in my head I do not think there is much use as few rolls approach a high enough sample population where an average could be seen with confidence.

Dragoon65 wrote:I know people want to be the best that they can be but really guys?

Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another? Isn't this a dice game? Isn't any dice game just a game of chance? Why would you play this game by crunching numbers for every squad and every action if the point is supposed to do something crazy and let chance decide how amazing it is? Would you not assault because your squad will only do 4.333333333333333 wounds to a unit? Or do you take the chance that every model becomes a frackin ninja and tears the enemy to bits while shouting, or growling, or gurgling or whatever your race sounds like?

you should take that dumb attitude to a casino and lose all your money. i can understand if you take something not so powerful because you like the fluff or the model or whatever. but what youre saying doesnt make much sense. if you just want to move models around and roll dice without any thought behind it, its kind of a braindead waste of time isnt it?

Dragoon65 wrote:I know people want to be the best that they can be but really guys?

Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another?

Um, me. When? Every time I shoot or assault. Why would I shoot at squad "A", when the weapons in my unit could do more damage to "B"? Check out MathHammer some time

Yeah I see what you all are saying, and I agree with you all.

I guess I'm just kinda tired of people saying "No you shouldn't do that at all because the probability is X."

Sorry kind of just an explosion of rant.

Everyone makes decisions based on the math to some extent..

If you don't want the squad of 5 guardsmen to die, i wouldn't charge Abbadon.

You make this decision because whilst you don't know the exact numbers you know the Math is in Abbadons favor.

=P

Dragoon65 wrote:I know people want to be the best that they can be but really guys?

Who cares about the probability of the average amount of wounds one squad will put on another? Isn't this a dice game? Isn't any dice game just a game of chance? Why would you play this game by crunching numbers for every squad and every action if the point is supposed to do something crazy and let chance decide how amazing it is? Would you not assault because your squad will only do 4.333333333333333 wounds to a unit? Or do you take the chance that every model becomes a frackin ninja and tears the enemy to bits while shouting, or growling, or gurgling or whatever your race sounds like?

Any game of chance is built around statistics and averages and success comes from manipulating the numbers to produce the most favorable average, that's what tactics and strategy is all about.

Most people are not just going to toss their squad of guardsmen willy-nilly into those lightning claw terminators just because *theoretically* they could kill the terminators. No, the math tells you that, outside of astronomically rare chances, the terminators are going to shitstomp the guardsmen and you'll be lucky to inflict even one wound, so you are better sitting there rapid firing your lasguns and hitting them with your heavy weapon in the process.

There's a law in the Statistics world called the Law of Large Numbers (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) which essentially says, after repeating a test a large number of times, your total average will invariably get closer and closer to the statistical average. Typically this is demonstrated with an example of rolling 6-sided dice. So, all the more reason for people to run statistics when playing a game based on chance.

f you know that individually there are chances of an amazing feat once in a while but no matter what you're going to average rather low after many matches, why not use a better unit and have more fun yourself? Perhaps the thrill of a low-tier unit beating out a higher tier unit may be what you prefer, but I personally get the most pleasure when I decimate my opponent within a small amount of time. Thus why I take up to 6 Basilisks in a 2000 point game.

It's not necessarily the fact that "A Guardsman squad will only do an average of .75 wounds against a squad of Marines" (guesstimating at 2 A.M. Don't qoute me on that number) but rather that the chances of them actually

becom[ing] a frackin ninja

are so very low that there's no sense in doing it.

Dragoon65 wrote:Yeah I see what you all are saying, and I agree with you all.

I guess I'm just kinda tired of people saying "No you shouldn't do that at all because the probability is X."

If you say; "I am going to charge those 5 Terminators with my 10 Gretchin, because when I kill them my other Orks will be able to...", then those people are kinda right. Assuming of course that they follow up their math statement with; "But it would to totally hilarious if it worked".

On the other hand; if those people insist that; "You should NEVER use weapon X against that target. It only produces 2.3 rolls on the damage-table. You should ALWAYS use weapon Y as it produces 2.4 rolls!".....Yes, then they really need to cool it with the math-hammer.

Some people really want to know how long their toy soldiers will stay on the battlefield without having to play a single game. I have done some of the "statistically sound" moves and still found that dice will screw you over. So I play what I feel I like.

It's just as bad as playing games-in-a-bottle. In an isolated scenario, some matchups are feasible, however, it will never be one-on-one like that.

Best thing to is to understand the probability, but realize the likelihood of a random chance messing it all up. Adopt, adapt, and improve.

I process the information in the world around me using maths. I'm not a WAAC tournament player or anything, it's just how I roll.
Just because something is not mathematically likely to succeed, doesn't mean I'm not going to do it. Sometimes I do things just because it's funny


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Dragoon65 wrote:Yeah I see what you all are saying, and I agree with you all.

I guess I'm just kinda tired of people saying "No you shouldn't do that at all because the probability is X."

Sorry kind of just an explosion of rant.

Play to have fun, don't play to how internet people want you to play.

Vegas loves guys like you. Ignore the math (probability). Just go put your money in that one armed bandit.

Kevlar wrote:Vegas loves guys like you. Ignore the math (probability). Just go put your money in that one armed bandit.

There are more things in the heavens and earth, horatio...

if 6 years of grad school won't make me a better WH40K player, then I don't know what will.



But even on the most basic level, everyone who plays this game is doing at least a little math. For example, why don't you shoot all of your bolters at that Land Raider? Why do you use Lascannons instead?

I quite frequently run a handful of Statistics/Probability through my head when planning my next move/shoot/assault etc. I do so so i will not waste my unit on something Statistically Impossible.

However I have more frequently thought "bollocks, I'm gonna do it anyway". That's when I try and Tarpit that Blendernaught with a squad of Necron Warriors, on the off-chance their reanimation rolls keep up with it's kills until that Spyder comes over and opens it like a Can of Beans. I run stats then to see my chances of success, however slim they may be

Grugknuckle wrote:if 6 years of grad school won't make me a better WH40K player, then I don't know what will.



But even on the most basic level, everyone who plays this game is doing at least a little math. For example, why don't you shoot all of your bolters at that Land Raider? Why do you use Lascannons instead?

This +1. Your making math calls with almost every decision you make; you just dont always realise it.

Right, as people have been saying, the most useful thing for math is to compare things to each other. Math gives you a way of objectively talking about concepts, which allows you to answer questions like "should I take multilaser or autocannon sentinels?". They also do give you a vague roadmap to what to expect in games. This helps stop you from making list-building errors. Just because you're lucky or unlucky with something doesn't mean you always will be, and you shouldn't base your list choices solely on how they did in the previous game.

Also, as mentioned, 40k is a game of dice, which means the entirety of player skill really boils down to how well a person plays the odds. Knowing those odds explicitly helps you play better.

I have a friend that runs everything by the numbers when he plays and builds lists while I let conman sense and the dice do the talking. We ironically have the best records in the group, so I guess there is validity in both approaches.

Ailaros wrote:
Also, as mentioned, 40k is a game of dice, which means the entirety of player skill really boils down to how well a person plays the odds. Knowing those odds explicitly helps you play better.

This ^ precisely. Math hammer is important because WH40K has dice. You can't say, "don't worry about the math, it's all random anyway."

But on the other hand, I frequently make moves despite being ignorant of the statistical likelihood of success. I don't know if my 6 Grey Hunters have an advantage against your 10 demons or not. But I'm going to charge them anyway because I *like* close combat.

So, you should do the calculations when you're building a list. It gives you an idea of what actions your units are really good at and what actions they are really bad at. Armed with that knowledge, you can play the game and build a winning strategy. For example, I have a unit of 10 Blood Claws. I want them to get into close combat with my opponent's 15 fire warriors because I just have this feeling that they will out shoot me, but I will trounce them in CC. So the question is, will their 30 strength 5 overwatch shots kill so many blood claws that I won't be able to beat them in hand to hand? How many fire warriors is too many to assault?

GreyHamster wrote:the point is to have fun.

Fixed that for you there. People find enjoyment in different things - whether by winning, working out the odds or chances, doing crazy things or enjoying the social aspect of playing a game with someone or any other means by which people can have fun with tabletop gaming.

It's because the game's not completely random. In very few instances do you simply roll a die and randomly determine an effect. Often you're trying to determine your result base on some form on enforced factor (Marines hit on a 3+, etc.).

But sometimes you gotta be like, DAMN THE TORPEDOES, ALL AHEAD FULL!

Grugknuckle wrote:But on the other hand, I frequently make moves despite being ignorant of the statistical likelihood of success.

Right, and I wont' claim to be some sort of human computer either. Most of my decisions are made intuitively, though there have been a few instances where I have actually sat down with a pencil and hashed out the math on the spot (generally in strange situations). I bet a computer would be pretty good at 40k, though.

Also, there is still the qualitative element of what the "right" odds to play. Even if you know the exact odds of killing stuff, there still may not be a platonian "perfect" odds to play on any given turn. Plus, there is personal preference. I like playing short odds, but that's not necessarily the best way to play in every given situation.

RxGhost wrote:It's because the game's not completely random. In very few instances do you simply roll a die and randomly determine an effect.

It's the other way around. With the exceptions of placing objectives, moving units over clear terrain and determining which unit will shoot at which unit (and if they are able to), everything else is determined by dice.

How far did I move through difficult terrain? Did my shots hit? Did they wound? Did I make it into close combat? Which of my opponents stuff was killed, and which of mine was? Who has first turn? What mission are we playing? Etc. Etc.

A vast majority of what happens in 40k is determined by die rolls. 40k may give the player a few opportunities to set the odds they want to play, but the results of most events are determined randomly.

The biggest thing that people forget with the maths and statistics is that you have to take it all with a grain of salt. I know after doing some bored math one day that a single shot from a firewarrior has an 11% chance of killing a space marine.

The problem is, since I came to that conclusion from such a large statistical sample, I can't go solely on that. I could have a terrible day rolling and only get 5% or my opponent could have miserable saving throws and I could get 50%. That inherent randomness skews the possibilities and makes it difficult to say "Oh, this happens X amount of times all the time" because it doesn't.

tl;dr - dice are random, statistics are only guidelines, don't let it command your every decision

IMO, knowing the math comes in useful as an aid to decision making.

Example.. If i know the probability of Ork Sluggas beating Deathwing termies in CC can help me decide if i should stand my ground, or charge in

Sparks_Havelock wrote:

GreyHamster wrote:the point is to have fun.

Fixed that for you there. People find enjoyment in different things - whether by winning, working out the odds or chances, doing crazy things or enjoying the social aspect of playing a game with someone or any other means by which people can have fun with tabletop gaming.

In the context of a discussion about mathhammer, the point IS to win. Mathhammer doesn't cover whether you're having fun or the social aspect is enjoyable. If you're doing crazy things just because, you've left behind the entire objective component of the game. In the context of optimizing decisions for results, the entire point is the winning outcome. If you don't care what the result is and just want to enjoy a beer and pretzels dicefest, your concerns are necessarily irrelevant to the math and the topic at hand.

Back on core topic:
If a guideline doesn't define your decision making process, is it really a guideline? You never need to take statistics with the proverbial grain of salt if you understand what the math actually means, because it completely defines all possible outcomes. What is more useful, though of course not quick, is to calculate standard deviations and where your desired outcome lies within that range. If you try to, say, shoot a unit off an objective, you can completely define the probabilities of all outcomes (unit dies, unit takes 25%+ casualties and breaks, unit holds) and make your decision based on that.

The core concept to remember is that probability never ever guarantees a result that has a probability of less than 1. You don't need to 'rule of thumb' a chance of failure or deviation from the average because the math has ALREADY told you what those are. If an action will succeed nine times out of ten, you really shouldn't be saying 'well I'm not going to take the action just in case it doesn't work.' It's the same logic as buying a lottery ticket and thinking 'I could be THE ONE!' You really won't be. Hypothetical game construct: We roll a fair d6. On a 1, you give me a buck. On anything else, I give you one. You really should take the roll, but some people are actually afraid enough to lose the dollar to not play. It's a noted psychological phenomenon called loss aversion and it warps perception of odds to the extent that worse decisions are often made. People subconsciously place more weight on the time their raider ate a railgun and exploded turn one than they do the times the smoke saved it and it delivered terminators into suits. Human perception and intuition is extremely error prone.