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I haven't seen a Dakka discussion on this topic yet, so I thought I'd be the first. BE AWARE!!! NO NEED TO NAME ANY COMPANIES THAT SELL GW PRODUCTS ILLEGALLY!! I'm not clear on all the Dakka rules, but let's just call them "them" or "the people selling recasts", yeah?

Here are the facts:
- el facts

Here are my personal thoughts:
1. Chinese company selling recasts at a much cheaper price, hurts.
I've lived in China and seen other similar things such as 'Lego', Apple computers, Microsoft products, etc. being sold in massive shopping malls in big cities. We all know the stories, but to see it live is.. convincing -- of the economic impact. After living there (and studying the system, both academically and personally), I saw this coming in 2009. Just saying: I called it a loooong ass time ago. As someone said in our gaming group: "If multinational corporations such as Apple and IBM and the luxury goods market can't stop Chinese knockoffs than neither can GW."

2. People pirating GW codices and other literature, also hurts

3. I agree with this "Sometimes at night I get an amazing dream where GW sudently jump on the band wagon that publick oppinion matters and will lead to bigger profits over time." Quote taken from here. Don't get me wrong, I do love what they offer -- but uh.. let's say that if my girlfriend treated me the way GW treats its' fan base, our relationship wouldn't be so much 'romantic' as it would be more.. <--- I think that says it all, yeah? In short, I would say customer loyalty is high, but customer support is low

4. There's a MASSIVE love-hate relationship with the fanbase towards the company: a lot of love towards the products but not necessarily towards the company's character. Can I say that on Dakka? Anyways. Delete whatever is deemed inappropriate.. perhaps this is the same point as #3? Meh

5. Personally I'd buy A TON of GW products if it had prices balanced for North America (for instance if something costs £25, I know they could sell it at $25.. obviously they don't though, because we buy their stuff anyways). And I'd invite my friends to join the hobby too (I actually currently tell them not to do what I do, because it's addicting and expensive.. like drugs...), because I could say 2 things: (1) it's cheap (relative to how it used to be.. say 20$ for a Codex instead of 50$?? I'd buy 3 instead of one!!), and (2) I not only like the product, but the company's "personality" as well and therefore support them! But that's just me. Maybe over-all it wouldn't make a difference in their North American market.. still, I can't help but imagine that lower prices might mean more people buying into the hobby and buying more stuff at a higher rate. Just my thoughts -- I'm not an economist or businessperson, by any means

6. EDIT: I'm an anthro major in university and see a major schism between the culture which exists around their products and the way they do things. Perhaps getting in touch with that culture could help? Again, I'm not a businessperson -- but it's what social scientists (and intelligence people) do... so why wouldn't/couldn't it work? Hell, that's how Lego saved their arses (and I saw PLENTY of knock-off Lego in China.. where it's made.. same quality as anywhere else, unlike the recasts people talk about on forums)

Now go forth, little thread, and flourish!

I think they have just priced themselves out of the market. There is more competition now a days and other companies such as Warmachine and Infinity have just as good of a product in every way and cost much less.

I haven't bought a GW model in over two years. I haven't bought a codex since they started to come out in hardback. The price vs. value in the GW product is just not there for me anymore. I can't even imagine what it would be like for a new player, the sticker shock for new players has got to be mind blowing.

This isn't much of a surprise, GWs stock has been tanking for a good while now (last 3-5 years?) And it's mostly due to the Internet and the introduction of the ability for others to mould and cast their own models.

Companies around the world are pretty much destroying GW in terms of profit from their re-casts. What they pour into a mould might cost them 10% of what GW sells at. And they turn a healthy profit off of each model. Lets say they mould a normally $40 model from GW. That model, in terms of plastic, is worth roughly $4 (Yeah, that's right. 4 freakin Dollars!) you factor in how much they are making off of gamers when Chinese moulders are selling the same models for 18-20 and you can clearly see GW hurting from their own inflation.

An interesting discussion on TheWarmaster, with links to a more.. managerial perspective on things because honestly it's true: we're living on the buyer's-end of things, rather than the business-end.

LINK IS HERE

Recasts are bad news for anything in resin, but I can't see copies of plastic kits really cutting into GW's profit margins. Even if the copy goes for half the price of the plastic kit, you are only saving around a third of what you would pay to an online retailer (and if you are willing to look for recasts, you are surely willing to hunt for online savings) for a far inferior product.8

 hivefleetantaeus wrote:
1. Chinese company selling recasts at a much cheaper price, hurts.

I doubt it. Remember, people who even know about illegal recasts are not GW's core market. Their biggest customers are kids with non-gamer parents who come into a GW store and beg for new toys, and those people aren't even going to think about the possibility of buying illegal recasts from China. And even many of the more informed customers aren't going to buy illegal recasts, whether because they have a moral problem with buying them or because they are concerned about getting scammed with no chance of recovering their money.

2. People pirating GW codices and other literature, also hurts

Again, I doubt it. You can't use a pirated book in a store, so most of the people pirating stuff are probably getting reference copies of all the books for the other armies while buying legal copies of the stuff they actually use. And those people probably aren't going to buy every new release just so they know if their opponent is cheating when they make claims about their army's rules. Then on top of that you've got the same "core market" that is going to buy a book in a GW store and never even think about looking for a free copy online. So the actual number of lost sales to piracy is probably fairly small.

4. There's a MASSIVE love-hate relationship with the fanbase towards the company: a lot of love towards the products but not necessarily towards the company's character. Can I say that on Dakka? Anyways. Delete whatever is deemed inappropriate.. perhaps this is the same point as #3? Meh

This, on the other hand, is certainly true. GW probably drives away a lot of potential customers that like the IP but just aren't willing to put up with the high prices/poor rule quality/etc.

for instance if something costs £25, I know they could sell it at $25

You realize that's not how money works, right? That £25 is equal to about $40 with just a straight currency conversion. Selling for $25 would mean that either GW would be taking a huge loss on every sale in US dollars, or that all of GW's UK sales have such a high profit margin that they can afford to cut over a third of the sale price in the US (for the sole purpose of making the $ and £ numbers equal) and still make a profit.

^

Peregrine once again says it.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GAW.L#symbol=GAW.L;range=5y

Look at it folks. This is not some trend that's been coming. Some knows something that triggered a major sell off. I can't imagine this is recasts or the like. Something big bit them hard and recent.

GW are fine, they are stilling making profit, their profit margin is just down.
They should just buy back their stock and stay a private company, suits them more anyway.

Edit: Wow just saw the post above mine, that is a massive drop.

Little google search helped. They just released their 6month profit report. It was 11mil gbp first half. It was 7mil gbp second half. Given codex release pace, no surprises here. As profits dipped, so would payouts, and therefore so would stock value.

Not a big deal is they can show a steady upward trend, move on folks.... Maybe if it gets low enough a privately own GW could happen.

On the downside, this probably delays Kirby's retirement another two years. Nuts.

Edit: ninja'd on the private company think. Well I agree.

GoliothOnline wrote:
This isn't much of a surprise, GWs stock has been tanking for a good while now (last 3-5 years?) And it's mostly due to the Internet and the introduction of the ability for others to mould and cast their own models.
.

No it actually has increased alot over the last 3 years. Take a look. You'll see this is pretty much in line with their normal stock fluctuations over the last 18 years.
Everyone chill they will be fine. This ain't even close to the worst situation they've ever been in. So sorry to say the company so many love to hate will probably live to fit another day. So odd to me how people actively root against this company.

 hivefleetantaeus wrote:

2. People pirating GW codices and other literature, also hurts

Again, I doubt it. You can't use a pirated book in a store, so most of the people pirating stuff are probably getting reference copies of all the books for the other armies while buying legal copies of the stuff they actually use. And those people probably aren't going to buy every new release just so they know if their opponent is cheating when they make claims about their army's rules. Then on top of that you've got the same "core market" that is going to buy a book in a GW store and never even think about looking for a free copy online. So the actual number of lost sales to piracy is probably fairly small.

This ^^
I have a pdf version of each codex and rulebook I use purely because I like to Highlight areas in them. Also, as I am not a huge Apple fan I don't use the ipad versions and prefer to look at them on my windows phone. Please note, I also own the legit copies. So the statement I have quoted is perfect for me.

Now that's a drop.

 BrotherHaraldus wrote:
Now that's a drop.

I just looked back the last five years, although it's a bigger drop then normal, it is consistent. Also, they are at their highest stock level yet. They really have nothing at all to worry about.

My two cents:
1. Probably does cut into it a bit, but it'd only really be for the bigger kits. Granted that's all they are pushing on the public lately, but it's actually really not all that cost efficient to re-cast most of their plastic infantry models. Their infantry stuff is about their only reasonably priced things left, or at least some of the kits. For the quality of the cast, I personally think the $40 space marine kit for 6E is a steal as $4 per 15mm miniature is a really reasonable price. Reaper Mini who have always priced their stuff based on cost of material used charge about $2.85 for an equivalently sized polymer model, but the sculpts aren't as clean, they never have the extra options, and are a lower quality plastic.

It hurts Forgeworld more than anything else, but then again Forgeworld would be much more palatable to their non-European audiences if we had some sort of stable pricing and distribution outside of simply Royal Air Mail and whatever the current exchange rate for the British Sterling Pound is.

2. Pirating other literature, yes. Pirating codices, not really. Making a workable codex out of pirated materials that's actually somewhat nice is actually kind of a chore. You have to go get a binder --probably about $4 to $6 bucks depending on quality, anywhere upwards to $15-20 if you want something that'll really protect the insides-- and then plastic sleeves for all the pages so they don't tear. It's what, $16 bucks for 100 sheets of that from Staples? Then you have to have to factor in the cost of printing all the pages, which comes out to about 7 cents a page on your standard consumer printers (and this is assuming black and white!), so that's another $7 bucks or so. At this point, considering most other players will not want to play you if you're not fielding a legit codex to begin with, just get the real thing. All the piracy that goes on with the codices are likely people just gathering scouting info on what other armies can do.

3-4. (Kind of the same thing.) Most definitely. I cannot think of an IP this loved by a fanbase so mismanaged by the people who own it since Star Wars. Going back to what I said in #1... Well, like I said, their INFANTRY stuff is (usually) on par with competition but their bigger stuff? Not even remotely. They are pricing things off relative power on the table a lot of the time rather than on the plastic used, which is your first clue something isn't exactly right. And then you have one of the most curious pricing changes I've ever seen, literally cutting the amount of Dire Avengers in a box in half, and then "dropping" the cost by $2. What essentially used to be $3.75 a model, Dire Avengers are now $7 a model. And they are plastic, mind you. Not pewter. Not resin. And it's not even a new sculpt with new options. It's literally half the box we used to get.

They do not price their stuff competitively with companies that make models for the sake of models. A lot of people are confused what I mean by this so I guess I'll explain. The Wargaming community tends to forget we're actually the subset of the much larger hobby of modeling at large. People have been assembling and painting and building tiny things since ages past. Pretty sure they were erecting tiny ships inside of bottles long before the concept of Plastic. It's actually one reason I've never liked the Imperial Guard: My grandfather used to do miniatures stuff, mostly erecting planes and navy ships out of wood. He was also a military guy and our whole family always had military memoribilia around, like model airplanes and such. I never much saw the appeal of a Lemen Russ tank when I had an accurate WW2 Sherman tank, you know? But I digress. My point being, companies like Tamiya put out models the same size and scope as GW does with their aircraft and even after paying whatever liscencing fees they have to in order to obtain the rights to even build models based on real world designs, are able to come out with higher quality model plane kits for half the price. It cost me $24.99 to get a WW2 spitfire that's about the same size as my Nephilim Jetfighter, which is what? 3 times that? Get real, GW. I hate that I am a sucker and bought that crappy unit for how bad it is on the table, let alone for how much of a ripoff it is in RL dollars. (But I have to admit I love how it looks.)

5. Yeah some of the prices are out of touch with reality. I can buy whatever latest D&D book comes out for about $35 bucks. It's hardback and always features entirely new art for everything, every time rather than rehashing about 50% of it. Oh, and they are always like 200 pages, about twice the size of any of the codices. You're looking at what, $175 MSRP for the core rulebook and two codexes? It costs $105 bucks for the super luxury special edition gift box version of the core D&D books. Again, get real GW.

6. This is a common complaint I hear so I'd have to think it could help. GW insulated themselves off from direct contact from their community for so long, it's actually kind of comical. No official forums, because it was flooded with unhappy customers? REALLY? That's your way of solving having unhappy customers is just to not listen to them anymore? Blocking all youtube comments for fear of criticism? REALLY? Long time fans of White Dwarf loathe the magazine now as it's basically just a company shill and doesn't even touch on the hobby anymore. Years ago in it's heyday, they would post articles on how to scratch build your own stuff, for crying out loud. Imagine that in today's climate. "No, no, mussn't do that. Showing people how to build their own orky-style bastions out of non-standard GW plastic bits? That action is not supported by the Codex Astartes."

Its kinda the way it goes. They come out with a crap Ed and Warhammer drops, then they come out with a well writed well organized Ed and it goes up. Then they have a bad batch of models, then something really cool comes out. Personally I think its because kids of today would rather play a video game on the Xbox, Playstation or cumputer instead of build and paint models. I suffer from that too. I sit on the computer and play Wot and Wowp more than Warhammer. I've painted, but I have not played a 40k game in years.

Plus, sadly, its cheaper to play video games than Warhammer. I can get an ok computer and a couple games, or a used xbox360/playstation3 for less than it cost me to make my Space Marine army.

I am an independent retailer who stocks GW and the biggest problem for me is that it is cheaper for me to buy genuine products posted from some ebay seller in the UK than it is to buy them wholesale from GW in Australia...

Well lets have a look at what is happening.

For the last 8 years GW plc has been loosing sales volumes.(Its revenue is not increasing as fast as its retail prices rise.)
And GW plc has been cutting costs as much as possible in this time.

Now GW plc appear to have reached the tipping point, where despite cutting costs to the bone , and increased output of new products ,the increase in retail prices can not match the fall in sales volumes.

I takes real 'skill' to take the market leading company , with enthusiastic fans and massively popular IP. And manage to lose so much market share competitors thrive and take your customers and your shareholders start to loose interest...

I hope GW plc corporate have got a plan to put things back on track.
Because it would be a real shame if lots of hard working GW staff lost their jobs because of senior managements arrogance/ignorance.

The business model of driving player base away from tabletops with poorly balanced rule sets and overpriced models while pandering to the new player demo in the mall stores was bound to collapse eventually.

Cut prices on plastic kits and fix under-powered codexes like Tyrannids, Orks, etc to a 6th edition standard with dataslates and watch profits start to increase. No one in my gaming club hesitates to admit that GW has priced them out of the hobby. Warmachine tournaments have replaced GW almost entirely at the FLGS.

GW's IP is great. Really. People love Space Marines and the grimdark. But it seems like with George Lucas and Star Wars, if some big studio bought it out from them people would mostly be relieved.

Stocks goes up, stock comes down. Stock goes up, stock comes down.
There stock has not been tanking for last 5-6 years 0.o? It’s been steadily growing for that time following the last large crash in 2008, and trended pretty much the same as the crash late 2000.
Graphs are available on the Yahoo link. They are quite easy to read even if you’re not from a financial background.

Assuming it trends again, buy now sell in 3yrs har. It seems holders here are quite fickle... .... ...

Let's stick to the one thread in the news/rumours board.