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Made in fr
Hallowed Canoness





Not Online!!! wrote:
Actually it depends on the context hybrid.
If one side was a skelleton faction comparatively to the other then it would be a propper increase and make another possible oponent an more interesting experience.

Except in this case it's the opposite. GW is adding tons of stuff to the bloated range and neglecting the skeleton faction. And you know it.

"Our fantasy settings are grim and dark, but that is not a reflection of who we are or how we feel the real world should be. [...] We will continue to diversify the cast of characters we portray [...] so everyone can find representation and heroes they can relate to. [...] If [you don't feel the same way], you will not be missed"
https://twitter.com/WarComTeam/status/1268665798467432449/photo/1 
   
Made in us
Rogue Daemonhunter fueled by Chaos






Macon, GA

I would argue that your early entry example actually proves my point, in that it makes more sense to grab early buyers at a discount than hope they will pay full price for a complete product.

My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Assassin with Black Lotus Poison





Bristol

Catbarf hit the nail on the head for me.

I think it is an issue that actually affects the player who has been around longer than the person just getting into it. Someone just getting into it might make assumptions about releases and rules support etc. such as that they are reasonably regular between ranges and factions. So they don't feel like they need to know what is coming up as they assume it won't be too long until their new sculpts/rules/whatever.

The older players who have seen the same Eldar models get repackaged over and over again since the 90s (possibly an exaggeration, do not play Eldar though I'm guessing at least some of the phoenix lords are that old and I'm pretty sure I remember seeing the Falcon on shelves when I was buying my garbled mish-mash collection of Dwarfs in '97-'98) know not to make that assumption, and that you cannot assume that you'll get your update within even the next decade or that when you do it will be in any way what you wanted (Dark Eldar and Sisters players for the former, Dark Eldar players especially for the later with regards to everything since that big 5th edition release).

So after a few cycles and getting neglected (not purely in the not getting an update sense, but in not getting a decent update that fixes the existing issues of the previous and not introducing a load of new ones), people begin to want to know what the feth is going on and what the next release for their army will bring.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2020/09/14 16:43:17


The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.

Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
 
   
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Chaos Space Marine dedicated to Slaanesh






Umbros wrote:
 Fluid_Fox wrote:
Experience tells me they'd either just half ass it to save face, or pretend they didn't hear it. This is a trajectory GW has been on for a long, long time.


Like when the community gave feedback saying new sisters and they released a whole new range of incredible models?

After more than ten years of asking and being ignored?
   
Made in us
Rogue Daemonhunter fueled by Chaos






Macon, GA

GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't. They're impossible to please, they're usually just unhappy people who spill bile at the least provocation, and they seem to be angry that a company that sold them a product isn't catering to them. The worst part is that this it the faction of GW's customer base that thinks its essential, when it's really not.

Games workshop has a wide variety of profit centers. Notably, it makes a pretty penny off of licensed video games, and Black Library seems to make good money, and that's before we even get to anything gaming or hobby related. In terms of selling hobby products, you have the following groups:
1) People buying supplies. Citadel paints are an industry standard, and while IMO they're expensive for what you get, they are high quality, come in a large range, and are available everywhere. Even people that don't buy GW minis sometimes buy GW paints.
2) People who only paint. A lot of hobbyists buy GW minis to build and paint, and never play the game. They're not really bound to an army or gaming system. This group is obviously bigger than we think, which is why every AOS army gets one or more massive centerpiece models. Somebody is buying them!
3) Churned new players. the infamous "little Timmy" who gets a start collecting box for Christmas. These are the wide net to try to turn people into...
4) Army Collectors. Whether based on playing tournaments or through fluff, some people just go nuts, building either multiple armies or one big one. They see the range as a buffet of possibilities. They always have a project over the horizon. Not quote the whales, but these are people who buy a lot of stuff over a number of years.
5) The Whales. Guys who buy way more than they will every build, much less paint or play. They have closets of sealed product.

If you're a GW collector, but you don't' want to buy anything they sell... you aren't their customer anymore. GW feels like they've lost you, and would rather bring in a new customer, than try to find out how to entice you to come back. The reason: diminishing returns. If you've already built an army or two and have lost your taste for GW... it's because you don't want more GW. Maybe, maybe, GW can create the perfect product to sell you another box or two... but you're clearly done.

TL;DR GW isn't interested in convincing cranky people on the internet to buy more stuff.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk

My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Rotting Sorcerer of Nurgle






 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't.


So, that's why there constantly dipping into the nostalgia mines for the last several years? Because they don't care.

Um, no. What they are doing is saying that and doing something completely different so they can talk out of both sides of their mouths.

GW: "We don't care about our long term fans. At all."
Also GW "Member Zoats?", "Member Ambulls?", "Member Stealer Cults?", "Member these mini concepts from RT/2nd with a modern spin on them?". The list goes on...

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 16:48:50




A GW fan walks into a bar, buys the same drink as yesterday but pays more.

""Unite" is a human word, ... join me or die."

If you break apart my or anyone else's posts line by line I will not read them. 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




Annandale, VA

 Polonius wrote:
I would argue that your early entry example actually proves my point, in that it makes more sense to grab early buyers at a discount than hope they will pay full price for a complete product.


My point was that in comparison to videogames, 40K never represents a 'complete product', unless you are buying exclusively for the minis or to play older editions. For active 9th Ed gamers, it's always in a still-in-development state.

Every new release is part of a living game model, where expectation of future support and future changes are intrinsic to the product. That requires a certain amount of trust in the continued value of the product, just as buying into an early-access game requires trust that it will continue to be developed.

A lot of the reasons I hear people explain why they haven't bought more minis- because an old product line might get overhauled right after they buy it, because the rules suck and they don't know if they'll change, because they're worried the army might get discontinued entirely, or because they don't want to buy into a game dominated by one faction- boil down to a lack of trust in the continued value of the product, stemming from a lack of communication from GW.

The people affected by this might not be GW's biggest demographic, but the pure painters and 7th-Ed-players wouldnt be negatively impacted by a little more transparency, either.
   
Made in us
Brainy Zoanthrope




North Carolina

 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't. They're impossible to please, they're usually just unhappy people who spill bile at the least provocation, and they seem to be angry that a company that sold them a product isn't catering to them. The worst part is that this it the faction of GW's customer base that thinks its essential, when it's really not.

Games workshop has a wide variety of profit centers. Notably, it makes a pretty penny off of licensed video games, and Black Library seems to make good money, and that's before we even get to anything gaming or hobby related. In terms of selling hobby products, you have the following groups:
1) People buying supplies. Citadel paints are an industry standard, and while IMO they're expensive for what you get, they are high quality, come in a large range, and are available everywhere. Even people that don't buy GW minis sometimes buy GW paints.
2) People who only paint. A lot of hobbyists buy GW minis to build and paint, and never play the game. They're not really bound to an army or gaming system. This group is obviously bigger than we think, which is why every AOS army gets one or more massive centerpiece models. Somebody is buying them!
3) Churned new players. the infamous "little Timmy" who gets a start collecting box for Christmas. These are the wide net to try to turn people into...
4) Army Collectors. Whether based on playing tournaments or through fluff, some people just go nuts, building either multiple armies or one big one. They see the range as a buffet of possibilities. They always have a project over the horizon. Not quote the whales, but these are people who buy a lot of stuff over a number of years.
5) The Whales. Guys who buy way more than they will every build, much less paint or play. They have closets of sealed product.

If you're a GW collector, but you don't' want to buy anything they sell... you aren't their customer anymore. GW feels like they've lost you, and would rather bring in a new customer, than try to find out how to entice you to come back. The reason: diminishing returns. If you've already built an army or two and have lost your taste for GW... it's because you don't want more GW. Maybe, maybe, GW can create the perfect product to sell you another box or two... but you're clearly done.

TL;DR GW isn't interested in convincing cranky people on the internet to buy more stuff.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk


Great stuff, sure... but the total addressable market (TAM) on warhammer is only so large. Yeah, in the short term you can just max out on the churned new players but in the longer term the whales and the army collectors are necessary too. And it's a systemic effect. If we get to the point where 40k starts shrinking (and maybe it didn't shrink from 5-7e but it certainly wasn't really growing, so it could happen), tabletop miniatures games as a whole probably start contracting, or there's some upstart who starts stealing GW's painting and model revenue too.

I just don't think GW is as invincible as everybody wants them to be; for one, their exploding stock prices are almost certainly a bubble. Yeah, they've seen gangbusters growth but they trade at like 40x earnings, that's overvalued tech company levels right there (see FT for a nice article about it). And they're not business masterminds; they've stumbled into some successful decisions around licensing but I'd argue they've also missed out on even more revenue there. And I won't even get into the whole "hold no debt" thing but while that sounds smart to Joe Q. Public, it's really not a smart way to run a company. So anyway, I don't see why I should just view their judgement on this (or many other business-related things) as infallible.
   
Made in fr
Regular Dakkanaut




 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't. They're
TL;DR GW isn't interested in convincing cranky people on the internet to buy more stuff.

Thanks for coming to my TED Talk


Talking for myself, but if retail prices were to drop 30% on GW, 50% on FW, and xenos players release were more consistent, they would definitely get more money from me.

Now, I realize that he stock is going up with current policy of high price+primaris flood, and they don't need me. So maybe you're half right. It's possible to please me, it's just not possible for THEM.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2020/09/14 16:52:41


 
   
Made in us
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Macon, GA

 Grimtuff wrote:
 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't.


So, that's why there constantly dipping into the nostalgia mines for the last several years? Because they don't care.

Um, no. What they are doing is saying that and doing something completely different so they can talk out of both sides of their mouths.

GW: "We don't care about our long term fans. At all."
Also GW "Member Zoats?", "Member Ambulls?", "Member Stealer Cults?", "Member these mini concepts from RT/2nd with a modern spin on them?". The list goes on...


Do you think the people who actually bought those models did so out of nostalgia? I don't. I think GW realized it has a deep treasure trove of concepts and artwork to flesh out to make it's world more interesting. The last truly new addition to the Warhammer universe prior to Primaris was the Tau in 2003. Everything since has been based on earlier art, lore, or models. In a really weird way, GW has been fleshing out the world they created in Rogue Trader for 20+ years.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 catbarf wrote:
A lot of the reasons I hear people explain why they haven't bought more minis- because an old product line might get overhauled right after they buy it, because the rules suck and they don't know if they'll change, because they're worried the army might get discontinued entirely, or because they don't want to buy into a game dominated by one faction- boil down to a lack of trust in the continued value of the product, stemming from a lack of communication from GW.

The people affected by this might not be GW's biggest demographic, but the pure painters and 7th-Ed-players wouldnt be negatively impacted by a little more transparency, either.


Again, I don't think transparency is a panacea. First, I don't think GW has a very strong idea where the game is going. Second, if it's not what people want to hear, they're going to stop buying anyway.

I think a lot of players want to attribute a very common, natural part of the hobby lifecycle, which is not having any interest in building or painting more models until something really exciting comes out, and makes it into some sort of flaw from GW. I think that a lot of the people who lose interest are just losing interest. It's easy to blame new rules, lack of new rules, lack of new models, or high prices, but the reality is it's usually either a personal loss of interest or a gaming group moving to other things. Again, I think GW has decided that it's not worth it to try to convince people to stay.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:02:20


My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Regular Dakkanaut





As someone getting back into 40k, but with an interest in returning to an older edition, I don't envy the current situation.

The constant edition churn and codex release cycle is the most frustrating aspect of the hobby by far. I wish that their MO was to just release rule errata/updates and then provide edits to codex's for people to use freely (and replicate changes in future book printings).

The whole business model is really built on this churn though, of getting people to keep chasing and chasing and chasing in hopes of getting the full complete experience.

But you don't have to chase. Just pick a version in the past that you think is complete enough and play that - convince your buddies to play it. I don't know...
   
Made in gb
Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

 Grimtuff wrote:
 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't.


So, that's why there constantly dipping into the nostalgia mines for the last several years? Because they don't care.

Um, no. What they are doing is saying that and doing something completely different so they can talk out of both sides of their mouths.

GW: "We don't care about our long term fans. At all."
Also GW "Member Zoats?", "Member Ambulls?", "Member Stealer Cults?", "Member these mini concepts from RT/2nd with a modern spin on them?". The list goes on...


Perhaps GW cares about the "not cranky" longterm customers

   
Made in us
Rotting Sorcerer of Nurgle






Yes.

GW has blatantly been tickling the nostalgia bones since they redid Space Hulk in 2009. I lost count of the sheer volume of lapsed gamers that came into my local GW looking for it. There's a reason Warhammer World has reprints of RT and the RoC books.

A random kid who is in this for gaming isn't really going to be paying attention to the Zoats etc. (it's only even in 9th you can actually take them in your armies without breaking Battleforged) as they are not part of the "meta" nor do they know their histories. A returning adult or a long term player will.



A GW fan walks into a bar, buys the same drink as yesterday but pays more.

""Unite" is a human word, ... join me or die."

If you break apart my or anyone else's posts line by line I will not read them. 
   
Made in us
Assassin with Black Lotus Poison





Bristol

 Mezmorki wrote:

But you don't have to chase. Just pick a version in the past that you think is complete enough and play that - convince your buddies to play it. I don't know...


While I agree that this would be ideal, it is just not really feasible for a lot of people due to the environments in which they are able to play. If you are playing in a GW store (obviously ignoring all of the COVID stuff) then you have to use the current rules. Trying to set up a club to play older editions can be a nightmare of deciding on an edition to play, having a venue to play and getting people to actually turn up. Anyone who has played any form of RPG in person knows that getting a load of gamers in one place at one time can sometimes feel like herding cats.

The Laws of Thermodynamics:
1) You cannot win. 2) You cannot break even. 3) You cannot stop playing the game.

Colonel Flagg wrote:You think you're real smart. But you're not smart; you're dumb. Very dumb. But you've met your match in me.
 
   
Made in ch
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 Hybrid Son Of Oxayotl wrote:
Not Online!!! wrote:
Actually it depends on the context hybrid.
If one side was a skelleton faction comparatively to the other then it would be a propper increase and make another possible oponent an more interesting experience.

Except in this case it's the opposite. GW is adding tons of stuff to the bloated range and neglecting the skeleton faction. And you know it.


oh i absolutely do, i play a faction that isn't even a skeleton anymore.

But like it was said a propper roadmap might've had alleviated alot of issues.

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page
A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.

 Daedalus81 wrote:

In the 41st millennium there is only overpriced hamberders.

 
   
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Macon, GA

 Gene St. Ealer wrote:
Great stuff, sure... but the total addressable market (TAM) on warhammer is only so large. Yeah, in the short term you can just max out on the churned new players but in the longer term the whales and the army collectors are necessary too. And it's a systemic effect. If we get to the point where 40k starts shrinking (and maybe it didn't shrink from 5-7e but it certainly wasn't really growing, so it could happen), tabletop miniatures games as a whole probably start contracting, or there's some upstart who starts stealing GW's painting and model revenue too.

I just don't think GW is as invincible as everybody wants them to be; for one, their exploding stock prices are almost certainly a bubble. Yeah, they've seen gangbusters growth but they trade at like 40x earnings, that's overvalued tech company levels right there (see FT for a nice article about it). And they're not business masterminds; they've stumbled into some successful decisions around licensing but I'd argue they've also missed out on even more revenue there. And I won't even get into the whole "hold no debt" thing but while that sounds smart to Joe Q. Public, it's really not a smart way to run a company. So anyway, I don't see why I should just view their judgement on this (or many other business-related things) as infallible.


Great points. I don't think GW are business geniuses, but they're clearly competent, and I'd go with their managers over the average whinger on the internet.

I think it depends on what percentage of GW hobbyists fall into the "have a full army or more, don't' plan on buying more, but would 100% buy more if the perfect army and/or rules came out," and how many of that crowd you could service with any given release.

The smartest criticism of GW is that releasing so many space marine models is like squeezing toothpast from the top of the tube. It comes out fast, but you leave a lot behind. Still, the more they lean into marines, the better they seem to do. It's a very valid question to think about marine overlaod, but it's also once we've been having for 20 years and seems open ended.

The one bit I'd throw out there is that we've been seeing new packaging for Marines, and one of the boxes to be updated and sold in stores are Sternguard. Sternguard, who are a cool and relatively new kit, but are probably barely a top 5 iconic Firstborn Elites choice? If a unit like that made the cut for reboxing, I think Marines sell even better than we think.

My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Been Around the Block




Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help. Even if it was just a handful of WIPs/test prints like they did for Intercessors back when they first came out, factions like Eldar or Guard could at least be sure they haven't been outright abandoned.

At this point, Primaris are bordering on actively the enemy of the entire rest of the hobby. It's not a good sign when we should be rooting for GW to be hurt by its own releases, just so real factions can get an update in between nonsense like Heavy Intercessors being gobbled up by the cultists.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:12:48



 
   
Made in gb
Longtime Dakkanaut




 Grimtuff wrote:
 Polonius wrote:
GW doesn't care about cranky long time customers on the internet. They just don't.


So, that's why there constantly dipping into the nostalgia mines for the last several years? Because they don't care.

Um, no. What they are doing is saying that and doing something completely different so they can talk out of both sides of their mouths.

GW: "We don't care about our long term fans. At all."
Also GW "Member Zoats?", "Member Ambulls?", "Member Stealer Cults?", "Member these mini concepts from RT/2nd with a modern spin on them?". The list goes on...


Not the same thing.

There's a big difference between making products that aim to target long term fans (or folks who have heard of the good old days) and trying to appeal to the cranks who will never be pleased with whatever they do.

Too many people on the internet complain endlessly and it will never be possible to win them over. Save yourself the headaches. Don't bother. Let them stew in their own toxicity.

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Macon, GA

Siegfriedfr wrote:
Talking for myself, but if retail prices were to drop 30% on GW, 50% on FW, and xenos players release were more consistent, they would definitely get more money from me.

Now, I realize that he stock is going up with current policy of high price+primaris flood, and they don't need me. So maybe you're half right. It's possible to please me, it's just not possible for THEM.


Maybe, but they'd also get less money from people who buy every release, or people that just buy what they need to finsih a tournament army, etc.




Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Mezmorki wrote:
As someone getting back into 40k, but with an interest in returning to an older edition, I don't envy the current situation.

The constant edition churn and codex release cycle is the most frustrating aspect of the hobby by far. I wish that their MO was to just release rule errata/updates and then provide edits to codex's for people to use freely (and replicate changes in future book printings).

The whole business model is really built on this churn though, of getting people to keep chasing and chasing and chasing in hopes of getting the full complete experience.

But you don't have to chase. Just pick a version in the past that you think is complete enough and play that - convince your buddies to play it. I don't know...


Or stop buying the rules, which GW has made trivially easy. For a company with such a litigious past, they are remarkly cool with Battlescribe (all datasheets and points) and 1D4 chan (all strategems, relics, etc) being out there.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:14:09


My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Rampaging Reaver Titan Princeps




hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help.


You're going to have to support this premise beyond a personal dislike for primaris.

I've seen too many people lose interest in releases if they know about them too far ahead of time. I've seen it happen here- initial enthusiasm wanes when the release date is too far away (or gets delayed).

While individual folks may not like it, actual sales behavior suggest the 'release secrecy' gets people to put money down. While 'this is coming out now, but X is coming out in 9 months' encourages people to wait, and they don't necessarily put money on the table when the 9 months are up.

Efficiency is the highest virtue. 
   
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UK

GW also knows that most poeple have a cap on what they'll buy. Whilst online it seems that every gamer has 3 or 4 armies worth of unfinished boxes; not everyone is the same. Many don't.

In fact I'd wager many have much smaller numbers of unfinished models. So when you've a market that will have a limit on what they will get, it makes sense to make more profit per sale rather than go for mass market tactics.

If they lower prices too far sure everyone can buy into it, but at the same time each person will only buy so much before they stop. The balance for GW is how many new customers will it net and will the new customers outweigh the profits that GW would have got with higher prices from fewer customers.



Chances are GW only has a rough idea of this and chances are we don't have any real idea at all. Predicting market patterns is hard and lets not forget; GW can't do a massive advertising campaign like Sony or Disney. So they can't overnight boost their market. Furthermore GW is already at their production limits. They can't actually handle their market exploding much larger without having supply issues.

So right now there's no pressure on them to lower prices to expand the market; the market expanded on its own with other factors changing and GW has hit their production limit. Now is the time for them to invest steadily in growth.


Which is the other element, GW works best with steady numbers. They cannot deal with massive market up nor down swings. Both are very unhealthy for them. GW is honestly very traditional in business. It's not a high and fancy flying product aiming for a short shelf life ; continual product turnover per customer and advertising like made to expand super rapidly.




PS don't take this to mean I don't want lower prices. I'd love if more armies were priced like Ossiarch Bonereapers rather than like Luminoth or Daughters of Khaine.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:19:58


   
Made in us
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Macon, GA

 Grimtuff wrote:
Yes.

GW has blatantly been tickling the nostalgia bones since they redid Space Hulk in 2009. I lost count of the sheer volume of lapsed gamers that came into my local GW looking for it. There's a reason Warhammer World has reprints of RT and the RoC books.

A random kid who is in this for gaming isn't really going to be paying attention to the Zoats etc. (it's only even in 9th you can actually take them in your armies without breaking Battleforged) as they are not part of the "meta" nor do they know their histories. A returning adult or a long term player will.


Okay, so a limited edition boxed game from a decade ago, reprints of books only available at Warhammer world, and a few expansions for another board game. I'll give you the reprints, although I own original copies of RT and Slaves to Darkness, and I didn't start until 3rd edition. The BSF stuff has a life of it's own, and I think that if Space Hulk were given an unlimited release it could compete on it's own merits.

Don't confuse nostalgia for childhood memories, with people deep into lore and old minis. I'm not alone in having huge collections of lead despite not playing until 2003.

But I still don't think GW is doing that to appease the cranks. They're certainly happy to make a few bucks off people that have fond memories, but that's not who we arguing about here. My point is that GW 1) isn't trying and 2) shouldn't be trying to make the disaffected folks happy.

My Painted Armies
: Co. B, 37th Praetorian IG: 21,000pts
KOW Ogres: 4500 points
Loyalist Emperor's Children: 2500 points 
   
Made in us
Been Around the Block




Voss wrote:
hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help.


You're going to have to support this premise beyond a personal dislike for primaris.

I've seen too many people lose interest in releases if they know about them too far ahead of time. I've seen it happen here- initial enthusiasm wanes when the release date is too far away (or gets delayed).

While individual folks may not like it, actual sales behavior suggest the 'release secrecy' gets people to put money down. While 'this is coming out now, but X is coming out in 9 months' encourages people to wait, and they don't necessarily put money on the table when the 9 months are up.

Then the people you know are cattle that don't know what's good for them. If your release schedule kills enthusiasm, that's a fault with the schedule rather than the idea of basic reassurance you'll get updated models in a reasonable timeframe.

Right now we lack basic reassurance GW isn't just going to let the craftworld eldar and guard ranges die in a ditch while they shove Primaris at us forever. When was the last time we even had hinting at stuff for, say, Thousand Sons to fill the gaps in their range? Will we even get ONE more cult legion in the next five years? Have we seen a single design concept for Noise Marines or Berserkers, or even a blurry snapshot?

A few coy lore blurbs frankly can longer be trusted as evidence, and I'm sick of needing to read tea leaves. At this point, it's in the rest of the hobby's interests to see Primaris players just go away and their faction sales drop enough that GW tries other things, and that's completely perverse. I'm saying there shouldn't be that incentive in particular, yet there definitely is. Primaris and GW release schedules have created a perverse incentive.

This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:23:01



 
   
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hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help. Even if it was just a handful of WIPs/test prints like they did for Intercessors back when they first came out, factions like Eldar or Guard could at least be sure they haven't been outright abandoned.


Defending it morally, or defending it as a wise business practice? Either way, I think the fact that there are zero whispers of new Guardians/guardsmen might actually mean they aren't coming.

At this point, Primaris are bordering on actively the enemy of the entire rest of the hobby. It's not a good sign when we should be rooting for GW to be hurt by its own releases, just so real factions can get an update in between nonsense like Heavy Intercessors being gobbled up by the cultists.


In the NBA, seven years ago, it was generally accepted that while shooting a lot of threes could win you games, it would never win a championship. then Golden State did it three times in five years, and the two years they lost were to teams with great three point shooting. now the team that shoots the least threes does so at a greater rate than the most prolific three point shooting team from only seven years ago.

What percentage of new releases can be space marines before things curdle? It seems like we'd have hit it already, right? Maybe not though.

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 Polonius wrote:
hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help. Even if it was just a handful of WIPs/test prints like they did for Intercessors back when they first came out, factions like Eldar or Guard could at least be sure they haven't been outright abandoned.


Defending it morally, or defending it as a wise business practice? Either way, I think the fact that there are zero whispers of new Guardians/guardsmen might actually mean they aren't coming.

At this point, Primaris are bordering on actively the enemy of the entire rest of the hobby. It's not a good sign when we should be rooting for GW to be hurt by its own releases, just so real factions can get an update in between nonsense like Heavy Intercessors being gobbled up by the cultists.


In the NBA, seven years ago, it was generally accepted that while shooting a lot of threes could win you games, it would never win a championship. then Golden State did it three times in five years, and the two years they lost were to teams with great three point shooting. now the team that shoots the least threes does so at a greater rate than the most prolific three point shooting team from only seven years ago.

What percentage of new releases can be space marines before things curdle? It seems like we'd have hit it already, right? Maybe not though.

I mean, that flat out makes the existence of Primaris players and releases a bad thing for anyone that likes Craftworld Eldar and Guard. That's kinda fethed and it's entirely on GW.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:26:31



 
   
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 Overread wrote:
Furthermore GW is already at their production limits. They can't actually handle their market exploding much larger without having supply issues.
Some great points in this post, but this is the key fact that, until it changes, is going to really influence GW's releases. it's physical plan is at max capacity. They can't grow their market.

So, expect some price hikes!

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hungryugolino wrote:
Voss wrote:
hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help.


You're going to have to support this premise beyond a personal dislike for primaris.

I've seen too many people lose interest in releases if they know about them too far ahead of time. I've seen it happen here- initial enthusiasm wanes when the release date is too far away (or gets delayed).

While individual folks may not like it, actual sales behavior suggest the 'release secrecy' gets people to put money down. While 'this is coming out now, but X is coming out in 9 months' encourages people to wait, and they don't necessarily put money on the table when the 9 months are up.

Then the people you know are cattle that don't know what's good for them. If your release schedule kills enthusiasm, that's a fault with the schedule rather than the idea of basic reassurance you'll get updated models in a reasonable timeframe.

Ugh. Your active contempt for other people is getting in the way of discussion.

It isn't the release schedule. Its how people behave, particularly in the realm of purchasing behavior. Sales psychology is a real thing
What's also a factor (and something you're either completely ignoring or are oblivious to) is warhammer isn't everything to most people. Its a hobby, probably one of several. It has to compete with everything else in people's lives.

If nothing on the release schedule interests you, don't buy it. It isn't a problem.
Keep in mind that releases happen a lot faster these days. Not all that long ago, factions could wait 5-10 _years_ between updates.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/09/14 17:29:32


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Voss wrote:
hungryugolino wrote:
Voss wrote:
hungryugolino wrote:
Anyone delusional enough to defend GW release secrecy is beyond help.


You're going to have to support this premise beyond a personal dislike for primaris.

I've seen too many people lose interest in releases if they know about them too far ahead of time. I've seen it happen here- initial enthusiasm wanes when the release date is too far away (or gets delayed).

While individual folks may not like it, actual sales behavior suggest the 'release secrecy' gets people to put money down. While 'this is coming out now, but X is coming out in 9 months' encourages people to wait, and they don't necessarily put money on the table when the 9 months are up.

Then the people you know are cattle that don't know what's good for them. If your release schedule kills enthusiasm, that's a fault with the schedule rather than the idea of basic reassurance you'll get updated models in a reasonable timeframe.

Ugh. Your active contempt for other people is getting in the way of discussion.

It isn't the release schedule. Its how people behave, particularly in the realm of purchasing behavior. Sales psychology is a real thing
What's also a factor (and something you're either completely ignoring or are oblivious to) is warhammer isn't everything to most people. Its a hobby, probably one of several. It has to compete with everything else in people's lives.

If nothing on the release schedule interests you, don't buy it. It isn't a problem.

You can't blame the customer for the company's exploitative decision making.


 
   
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hungryugolino wrote:

Right now we lack basic reassurance GW isn't just going to let the craftworld eldar and guard ranges die in a ditch while they shove Primaris at us forever. When was the last time we even had hinting at stuff for, say, Thousand Sons to fill the gaps in their range? Will we even get ONE more cult legion in the next five years? Have we seen a single design concept for Noise Marines or Berserkers, or even a blurry snapshot?


In many decades of 40K we've only seen one major army lost from the core game - Squats. And I'd wager a good many in this thread weren't even around back then to see the squats go. Since then the only major army removal was the loss of armies for Old World as we moved into Age of Sigmar and taht was a resounding disaster for GW of a big enough magnitude that they changed their upper management around.

Sure we've lost specialist armies like Inquisition over the years (often where they simply blend back into the armies that they came out of) and we've lost Foregeworld armies and themed Imperial guard subfaction forces. But outright loss of a whole race, that's not happened since the Squats. The chances of Eldar being lost is well into the realms of "GW is falling apart and leaking money and likely to go under next week"

   
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hungryugolino wrote:
I mean, that flat out makes the existence of Primaris players and releases a bad thing for anyone that likes Craftworld Eldar and Guard. That's kinda fethed and it's entirely on GW.


I mean, if you like those armies, but dont' like the models, then sure. Otherwise, buy what's available.

I've been playing guard for 18 years or so, and they've gotten three big waves of releases. Third edition (~2003) with the plastic cadians, plastic heavies, and plastic command; 5th edition (~2010) with valkyries, recut LRTB/Chimeras, and hellhounds, and 6th edition (~2015) with Bullgryn, The Taurox, Scions, and the Wyvvern.

You'd have to go back to the metal regiments of 2nd edition when IG got regular updates to it's model range.

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KOW Ogres: 4500 points
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