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The first Yougov poll to show an overall Yes majority was published yesterday on the back of a month which saw a surge of momentum for the Yes campaign and the No vote drop by 12%. Better Together's tactics of scare mongering have evidently failed quite spectacularly, the varius UKIP loons that can't seem to help themselves sticking their oar in haven't helped the unionist cause either .


Source

Like most people I though that the No vote would be a foregone conclusion and while the result would be fairly close Yes was never really in with a chance.

After this month though I am genuinely, albeit cautiously, optimistic for the first time that an Independent Scotland may be a reality in as little as 2 years. There are obviously a lot of variables and the No vote is still strong but the shoots of hope have started to sprout.

As I am a service voter I have already voted so all I can do now is wait until the 19th, a possibly momentous day.

To quote myself on the BBC website, we've had months upon months of 'No' winning in the polls. Then we have a single poll, which excludes all 'undecided' voters and 'not planning on voting' (about 10% of the population) declaring a lead for the Yes campaign, and suddenly the media is going crazy about how 'Yes' has the lead. Completely ignoring another poll taken on the same day taking into account those factors above which had the opposite result.

What a load of old crock.

Not to mention that I actually do Yougov(the survey commissioners), and I'll tell you here and now that their survey samples are pretty bloody small (we're talking about a few thousand people here), and a good chunk of people just cycle through their questions hitting the first thing available to get the cash reward.

There's also the fact that if I was running the Yes campaign, the first thing I'd do would be get as many party members to sign up to Yougov for free to answer that specific question in the hopes of boosting the results specifically for this media attention (in the hopes of thus persuading more people by making it seem like a possibility).

In other words, I wouldn't get your hopes up. I'm personally reckoning that when it comes to polling day, we're going to see a 55-60% vote in favour of Union. I could be wrong, but we'll see.

Should Scotland somehow actually split, I look forward to seeing the dawning realisation that Salmond has fed the Scottish people a huge pile of empty bull.

Not that I expect a yes vote in any way shape or form.

Scotland leaving would probably end up bad for the Scots unless it was very well done. From what I know of salmond, he is not a good enough politician to do it correctly.

Salmond strikes me as an even more inept Blair - doing anything he can to get his name in the history books and money in the bank - damn the consequences.

 Ketara wrote:
To quote myself on the BBC website, we've had months upon months of 'No' winning in the polls.

We have yet this particular poll was published 12 days before polling day, which is far more significant than those that preceded it. A single poll by itself means little but the trend is what I find most interesting.

We will indeed see but if nothing else this result shows that the complacency from the 'better together' camp was seriously misplaced.

 welshhoppo wrote:
Scotland leaving would probably end up bad for the Scots unless it was very well done.

I doubt it, there will be a few years of uncertainty but there is absolutely no reason why Scotland can't be at least as successful as the rUK. I would take Salmon over Cameron any day of any week you care to name and the specter of a UKIP/Conservative coalition is something that I find horrifying.

Just pointing out that there's already a thread on this subject, and that yes, polls are garbage. That and the BBC is saying the Yes campaign has a 52% lead now (again that means nothing till the actual results come out).

The new thread is justifiable as it is a change in the tone of the referendum. Yes, might indeed win, but this was always a risk.

I can see this being a problem for both sides, but the Yes campaign is handling it better.

I must agree that Osbournes revealed plans for further devolution is wide open to accusations of panic, which Salmond is using to the full.

As it happens it is likely just unfortunate timing, Labour and Tory have been in talks as to what cvan be offered, and those take time. I dont actually like this policy, buiying the Scots just makes the balance of power uneven.
I can only agree with ther increased devolution if at the same time the Wesrt Lothian question is adressed. More federalisation for Scots away from Westminster must be followed by non interference by Sottish MPs in purely English issues not affecting the Uk as a whole.
Salmond is also claiming this is a victory of 'people of Scotland' vs Westminster, as if those who vote no are not real Scots. Alarming that.

However:

There was some room for complacency amongst the no voters, there isnt any more.
The youth have largely turned against the Yes campaign, including the 16 and 17 year olds, Salmond gave the vote too hoping they would follow in a Braveheart frenzy.
The YouGov poll itself used was online, if the whole issue was decided online then Yes would win by a landslide, because cybernats.

Salmond and Sturgeon have to be upbeat but the endgame has now got deangerous for them, before there was room for complacency for one side only, which was a huge advantage to the YES campaign, now there is no room for complacency and the voter turnout will be high. As the core sentiment for the majority of people will not have changed this premature victory may well cost the Yes campaign.
I wouldnt entirely dismiss the idea that the polling was taken from a cross section of the comminity to get the desired result, we dont know what polling criteria was used, random people on the internet? Where, by which regionalisation. Statistics are so easy to spin, tjhe only relevance of polls is the spin woven around them, and this one has had a lot.

I'm definitely getting more of a Yes vibe in and around Glasgow as the referendum approaches. People are paying attention and taking a greater interest in politics. It would be tragic if we got a No vote as I think that'll just restore the massive amounts of voter apathy that the country suffers from. People actually have the opportunity to bring in change and I think they'll seize it on the 18th.

One last thing.

A lot of posters are waving off ther Yes poll, they should therefore also wave off the No polls also , but havent done so.

There needs to be consistency on this subject. The new polls should at some level be taken with as much seriousness as the old.

Salmond has the advantage of running a campaign with a very upbeat and emotionally stirring message so I'm not surprised there's been an uptick in support for independence as the vote draws nearer.

On the other hand, he has the disadvantage of being a massive, insufferable prick, so I don't expect a majority in his favor come poling day.

We're kind of beyond the "we hate Salmond" argument having really anything to do with the campaign. A lot of people actually look beyond him, could throw a fat joke in here but I can't be arsed, with regard to the future of Scotland.

 Medium of Death wrote:
could throw a fat joke in here but I can't be arsed,

Oh but I can be arsed!

 Medium of Death wrote:
We're kind of beyond the "we hate Salmond" argument having really anything to do with the campaign. A lot of people actually look beyond him, could throw a fat joke in here but I can't be arsed, with regard to the future of Scotland.

A. It's his racist anglophobic message thats the problem.
Salmond (not the yes campaign) has made the referendum Scotland vs UK, assuming that support for No voters is anti-Scottish.

B. The threats against sovereign nations inside and outside the EU if they dont give Salmond what he wants when he wants it.

C. Its the corruption and catalogue of lies that will only get a zillion times worse when he is president.

Out of curiosity, if the referendum passes, does he automatically become President? One would assume Scotland gets an actual vote for president after this right?

If the referendum passes nothing happens. It is merely a vote to decide whether Scotland wishes to seperate. The hard country splitting work begins after.

 Medium of Death wrote:
We're kind of beyond the "we hate Salmond" argument having really anything to do with the campaign. A lot of people actually look beyond him, could throw a fat joke in here but I can't be arsed, with regard to the future of Scotland.

I don't think we are. A lot of people have a very negative opinion of him and it affects their perception of the debate. I'm one of these people. Against my better judgement.

 welshhoppo wrote:
If the referendum passes nothing happens. It is merely a vote to decide whether Scotland wishes to seperate.

These two statements don't quite make sense... If the referendum has a majority in favour of independence, then Scotland will become a separate country be a pre-determined date.

 -Shrike- wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:
If the referendum passes nothing happens. It is merely a vote to decide whether Scotland wishes to seperate.

These two statements don't quite make sense... If the referendum has a majority in favour of independence, then Scotland will become a separate country be a pre-determined date.

I think the point he's making is that the referendum does not make Scotland independent. The question it asks is "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Not "Will Scotland now be an independent country." If the vote passes the Scots still have the fight the battle to become independent.

I hope Scotland will be independent, if only it will be refreshing to see a new country on the map.
I also think Scotland is a beautiful country that deserves to run its own business and make its own fate. But I may be biased because I think the British government is scary.
I haven't really been following all the hassle though, which is a pity because it is the most interesting thing in the UK since the Troubles, but judging from the polls, the Yes campaign must be quite a lot more convincing than the No campaign. From 39% to 51% is an impressive increase.

 LordofHats wrote:

 -Shrike- wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:
If the referendum passes nothing happens. It is merely a vote to decide whether Scotland wishes to seperate.

These two statements don't quite make sense... If the referendum has a majority in favour of independence, then Scotland will become a separate country be a pre-determined date.

I think the point he's making is that the referendum does not make Scotland independent. The question it asks is "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Not "Will Scotland now be an independent country." If the vote passes the Scots still have the fight the battle to become independent.

What he said. My phone sucks and typing is a pain.

 Orlanth wrote:

 Medium of Death wrote:
We're kind of beyond the "we hate Salmond" argument having really anything to do with the campaign. A lot of people actually look beyond him, could throw a fat joke in here but I can't be arsed, with regard to the future of Scotland.

A. It's his racist anglophobic message thats the problem.
Salmond (not the yes campaign) has made the referendum Scotland vs UK, assuming that support for No voters is anti-Scottish.

B. The threats against sovereign nations inside and outside the EU if they dont give Salmond what he wants when he wants it.

C. Its the corruption and catalogue of lies that will only get a zillion times worse when he is president.

Can you show me on the doll where Alex Salmond touched you?

 Soladrin wrote:
Out of curiosity, if the referendum passes, does he automatically become President? One would assume Scotland gets an actual vote for president after this right?

No, although it is highly likely. After a Yes vote there will be a lot of negotiation on all kinds of issues as well as an election to select the reformed Parliament of Scotland. The proposed date for Independence is March (?) 2016.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
...judging from the polls, the Yes campaign must be quite a lot more convincing than the No campaign. From 39% to 51% is an impressive increase.

It's easy to promise the world.

 LordofHats wrote:

 -Shrike- wrote:

 welshhoppo wrote:
If the referendum passes nothing happens. It is merely a vote to decide whether Scotland wishes to seperate.

These two statements don't quite make sense... If the referendum has a majority in favour of independence, then Scotland will become a separate country be a pre-determined date.

I think the point he's making is that the referendum does not make Scotland independent. The question it asks is "Should Scotland be an independent country?" Not "Will Scotland now be an independent country." If the vote passes the Scots still have the fight the battle to become independent.

Not quite, this is the 'battle' to become independent

A yes vote means Scotland will have its independence, some of the terms of the independence will be ironed out including exactly when the transition period ends and Scotland becomes an independent country.

Technically the situation is not reversible, but we will see if the threat by key industries to leave Scotland materialises. A lot of the Yes promises are pie in the sky, when investment starts leaving with the rats people might not want Scotland to become a sinking ship. This will cause problems as it will be too late, Salmond will have the right to take Scotland out of the UK at the appointed time and he will do so regardless of the cost because it means power for him.

For all, this talk of 'project Fear' a post yes vote will become economically scary indeed. A slow motion trainwreck seen as it happens with Wee Eck no longer taking his feet off the accelerator because now it is too late to stop him as of 18th September this year.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 SilverMK2 wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
...judging from the polls, the Yes campaign must be quite a lot more convincing than the No campaign. From 39% to 51% is an impressive increase.

It's easy to promise the world.

Indeed

Promise the world = positive campaign.

Point out that the promises are vapid = negative campaign.

'Yes' has been a de facto a 'positive campaign'
'No' has been de facto a 'negative campaign', but people are not really aware what that actually means. It just means + and - it doesn't actually have a moral edge of itself.

Hope is a powerful weapon, but not all hopes are true, the Yes campaign has filled minds with false hopes and condemend the 'negativity' that is little more than throwing cold water of truth on some blatently unachievable promises.

Salmond doesn't care or need to care if he cant deliver, but the time Scots find this out, its too late.

[quote=Orlanth 614040 7182735 59b90e1005a220e2ebc542eb9d950b1e.jpg the Yes campaign has filled minds with false hopes and condemend the 'negativity' that is little more than throwing cold water of truth on some blatently unachievable promises.

 Palindrome wrote:
[quote=Orlanth 614040 7182735 59b90e1005a220e2ebc542eb9d950b1e.jpg the Yes campaign has filled minds with false hopes and condemend the 'negativity' that is little more than throwing cold water of truth on some blatently unachievable promises.

Alternatively the Yes campaign is right to be positive and BT's negativity is evidence of their complacency and arrogance. Time will tell (hopefully).


I find it interesting that the Westminster government has been sufficiently rattled to break the Edinburgh agreement with this last minute promise of further devolution.

There is already a thread on this topic, so I'm locking this one.