Yet Another Plane Crash - This Time In Alps

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**Dropbear Victim**

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32030270

Germanwings airliner 4U 9525 crashes in French Alps

An Airbus A320 airliner has crashed in the French Alps between Barcelonnette and Digne, French aviation officials and police have said.

The jet belongs to the German airline Germanwings, a subsidiary of Lufthansa.

The plane, flight 4U 9525, had been en route from Barcelona to Dusseldorf with 142 passengers and six crew on board.

French President Francois Hollande said: "The conditions of the accident, which have not yet been clarified, lead us to think there are no survivors."

Mr Hollande said the crash was a tragedy and called for solidarity with the victims, adding that the area was very difficult to access.

He said he would be speaking shortly with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The plane issued a distress call at 10:47 (09:47 GMT), according to sources quoted by AFP news agency.

Search-and-rescue teams are headed to the crash site at Meolans-Revels, said regional council head Eric Ciotti.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said he had sent Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve to the scene and a ministerial crisis cell to co-ordinate the incident had been set up.

The interior ministry said debris had been located at an altitude of 2,000m (6,500ft).

Interior ministry spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet told BFM TV that it would be "an extremely long and extremely difficult'' search-and-rescue operation because of the remoteness.

Both Airbus and Germanwings have said they are aware of the crash reports but cannot yet confirm them.

Lufthansa chief executive Carsten Spohr tweeted: "We do not yet know what has happened to flight 4U 9525. My deepest sympathy goes to the families and friends of our passengers and crew.

"If our fears are confirmed, this is a dark day for Lufthansa. We hope to find survivors."

The Airbus A320 is single-aisle passenger jet popular for short- and medium-haul flights.

Not a good year for aviation. Theyll lose the title of 'safest way to travel' at this rate.

**His Master's Voice**

Erm, what are the other high profile passenger plane crashes this year?

**Dropbear Victim**

His Master's Voice wrote:
Erm, what are the other high profile passenger plane crashes this year?

Meant over the last 12 months, quite a few of the deadly crashes were high passenger numbers.

Going by the commercial crashes listed on wikipedia since last march 944 have died. 1092 if the reported 148 on this plane are dead.

In this year, the only other 2 listed were TransAsia Airways Flight 235 killing 42 of 58 and Delta Airlines Flight 1086 no fatalities.

**Frazzled**

Blessings to them and their families

**d-usa**

Yet in the US alone 32,000+ people died in car crashes over the past 12 months, so I think the title of "safest way to travel" remains safe.

Hopefully there will be survivors, but I doesn't look likely.

**Iron_Captain**

d-usa wrote:
Yet in the US alone 32,000+ people died in car crashes over the past 12 months, so I think the title of "safest way to travel" remains safe.

Hopefully there will be survivors, but I doesn't look likely.

I don't know. There is a lot more people travelling by car than by airplane, so to find out what is safest, would you not have to divide the number of passengers by the number of fatalities or something like that? (I suck at math)
Also, is travelling by ships not much more safer than travelling by airplane? Accidents with ships seem a lot more rare than airplane crashes.

**kronk**

Iron_Captain wrote:
Accidents with ships seem a lot more rare than airplane crashes.

Much higher chance of catching a norovirus, though. That's stuff is the gaks.

**Jihadin**

Word is mention one survivor so far

**Portugal Jones**

Iron_Captain wrote:
d-usa wrote:
Yet in the US alone 32,000+ people died in car crashes over the past 12 months, so I think the title of "safest way to travel" remains safe.

Hopefully there will be survivors, but I doesn't look likely.
I don't know. There is a lot more people travelling by car than by airplane, so to find out what is safest, would you not have to divide the number of passengers by the number of fatalities or something like that? (I suck at math)

Given that you have millions of people traveling by air every week, it still orders of magnitude lower.

**Desubot**

Man that sucks.

Il take my chances in my car

At least i can afford gas to travel where i want to be

**Jihadin**

Stand corrected. No survivors

**ScootyPuffJunior**

Iron_Captain wrote:
d-usa wrote:
Yet in the US alone 32,000+ people died in car crashes over the past 12 months, so I think the title of "safest way to travel" remains safe.

Hopefully there will be survivors, but I doesn't look likely.
I don't know. There is a lot more people travelling by car than by airplane, so to find out what is safest, would you not have to divide the number of passengers by the number of fatalities or something like that? (I suck at math)

Unsurprisingly, that has been done and it turns out that air travel is still indeed that safest form of travel and it's still getting better.

**Ensis Ferrae**

d-usa wrote:

Hopefully there will be survivors, but I doesn't look likely.

If there are survivors, hopefully they are found quickly before they start needing to eat each other, like that rugby club in the 70s-80s did

**Frazzled**

Any hint this was foul play? News is saying they should have had time to send out a mayday.

**d-usa**

Frazzled wrote:
Any hint this was foul play? News is saying they should have had time to send out a mayday.

So far it seems like there are no signs of external foul play at least.

From talking to the folks I know that did some flying in the service the fact that nobody send out a mayday by itself wouldn't be anything that would be that surprising. Talking on the radio is actually the last priority when something is wrong according to them, and they focus on Aviate-Navigate-Communicate to solve the problem: Keep the airplane flying, find out where you are flying to, then talk on the radio.

Also seems like they are focusing on a few possibilities right now:

- There was a similar event late last year where two sensors on a A320 froze over and the plane thought that it was stalling and automatically lowered the nose to recover from the stall. The computer would not let the pilots fix the problem and rudder input did nothing to correct the problem because the stall was still happening according to the sensors. The pilots had to manually disconnect the sensor input to regain control of the plane. This issue was supposently fixed, but it seems pretty similar.
- Decompression and subsequent LOC is always a possibility.
- Somebody could have accidentally pushed a switch and not realized the autopilot was off or something similar, and it wouldn't be unheard of for pilots to be so zoned out that they didn't realize that they were fixing to fly a plane into the ground
- The last scenario people are talking about focuses on the timing of when it all started. The plane had just reached their flight level a few minutes prior to all this starting. If one of the pilots is going to take a quick toilet break, this would be the most likely time to do it. Which of course would only leave one pilot in control of the plane who could lock the other pilot out and manually steer it into the mountains.

**Peregrine**

d-usa wrote:
Which of course would only leave one pilot in control of the plane who could lock the other pilot out and manually steer it into the mountains.

This doesn't make much sense because they didn't crash as aggressively as possible. They used a high descent rate, but nothing even close to the plane's limits. You'd think that a pilot who wanted to kill everyone would just point the nose straight down and leave no chance of failure.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

- Somebody could have accidentally pushed a switch and not realized the autopilot was off or something similar, and it wouldn't be unheard of for pilots to be so zoned out that they didn't realize that they were fixing to fly a plane into the ground

And this doesn't seem very plausible. A descent like that isn't some subtle thing you could easily miss, it's going to be very obvious to everyone on the plane. And I don't believe that both pilots could be so distracted that neither of them would notice something so obviously wrong and fix the problem long before the plane crashes.

**Bookwrack**

I'm expecting that if the cause can be peaced together, we're going to see that it was a cascade of events happening at just the right time to cause disaster. Something that'd probably have a 10 million to one chance of ever happening.

Which, given the number of flights that happen worldwide every day, means it's a series of events that happens every eight years or so, and this time was at just the right time for total disatster, instead of something people laugh about over drinks afterwards.

**Iron_Captain**

I heard that the pilot was locked out of the cockpit:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/26/one-pilot-locked-out-germanwings-planes-cockpit-4u9525-claims-new-york-times

**d-usa**

Peregrine wrote:
d-usa wrote:
Which of course would only leave one pilot in control of the plane who could lock the other pilot out and manually steer it into the mountains.

This doesn't make much sense because they didn't crash as aggressively as possible. They used a high descent rate, but nothing even close to the plane's limits. You'd think that a pilot who wanted to kill everyone would just point the nose straight down and leave no chance of failure.

Possibly, but you also have people killing themselves quickly by blowing their brains out and people killing themselves slowly by taking a bunch of pills.

He could have tried to make sure he reaches the mountains and did a slow decend for that, he might have tried to avoid panicking the passengers, he could have tried to do a bunch of things.

Of course it could have been something completely different as well.

Edit after new info:

Another possibility for the slow decend may have been that the copilot (if so inclined) programmed the auto-pilot to fly towards the ground instead of just pointing the plane to the ground. That way he could leave the controls to physically block the door to keep the pilot from entering which could have still happened after pointing the plane down (even if it wasn't likely). There have been some reports that the plane was on autopilot until the last monent when it would have disengaged due to warnings, but I'm not sure how they came to those speculations since AFAIK the flight data recorder hasn't been analyzed yet.

**Frazzled**

Now reports that copilot "voluntarily" started the descent.
http://www.jpost.com/International/French-prosecutor-German-co-pilot-appears-to-have-deliberately-crashed-plane-395212

This is starting to not look good. I could see a scenario where the copilot had a heart or something, keeled over and the plane started going down. The pilot, panicks and hits the wrong code to get into the cockpit and it just goes bad from there.

I'm sure they are looking into the co-pilot now.

**Medium of Death**

Even if the code is correct the pilot can still stop you from gaining entry, apparently.

Murder/Suicide by pilots isn't unheard of.

It's a particularly scumbaggish way to off yourself. Kill yourself in your hotel room ffs.

**Tyr13**

Just heard that the copilot was apparently breathing normally, so he didnt just die... and he probably didnt have a heart attack either, since he didnt say anything, didnt groan, anything. The pilot was apparently screaming at the door during the last few seconds though... this does sound like either a terrorist thing (seems unlikely, given that noone has confessed to it yet) or the most... words fail me. Taking so many people with you... I dont believe in god, heaven or hell... but Im feeling tempted. If only to see that melon-fether burn in hell.

**timetowaste85**

Truly depressing that he chose to end so many other lives with his own. More and more, it's sounding like an excessively cruel and disgusting suicide.

**Orlanth**

Airline pilots are normally exceptionally stable people, with a lot of experience and a lot of psychological profiling before they are allowed to fly passengers.

Andreas Lubitz, aged 28. Was the co pilot. From what we know so far he appeared stable.

I wonder what could have happened to him that caused this. However if he was radically Islamised he would presumably have uttered a prayer in the last few moments. Moslem's especially martyrs are supposed to do so.

Could be just a suicide, those who are despondent don't often show it, and the urges are sudden and unexpected. I knew one guy who threw himself in front of a train, he had thought about it a long time and discussed it with his friends including me. Eventually our group parted ways and moved to different places, but then one day a couple of years later on some urge he jumps, or so I heard afterwards.
a suicidal decision might have been made up on the spot, and been opportunist.

From the point of view of a scumbag on the co pilots seat its a comfortable and controlled way to go.

**Tyr13**

Yep. The computer does everything for you, just lean back and die... children screaming behind you...

**kronk**

I hope it wasn't suicide by pilot. We'll see when the investigation is done.

Those poor people.

**Sigvatr**

Pretty much confirmed to be suicide. Co-Pilot manually locked the door and was conscious just after manually initiating the crash.

**KiloFiX**

That's truely quite disturbing.

I guess they're going to be checking his background / situation next.

**PrehistoricUFO**

Suicide with a mass murder attached to it indeed. Imagine how mindbending those last 8 minutes were. The co-pilot just staring into nothingness as the pilot tries to break the door down. Pilot thinking "What in the actual feth,", passengers and crew freaking the feth out.

Soooo dark.

Here's the transponder data that showed the plane brought down to freakin' 96-feet!

We have analysed the raw data from the transponder of #4U9525 and found some more data apart from the regular position/altitude data.
These are the decoded ModeS (Downlink Format 20) frames which contain replies to interrogating radar requests (Upling Format 20).

09:30:48Z.651 MCP/FMC ALT: 38000 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:48Z.936 T,3c6618,43.115341,5.671181,38000,GWI18G
09:30:49Z.496 T,3c6618,43.116028,5.671692,38000,GWI18G
09:30:50Z.076 T,3c6618,43.117381,5.673065,38000,GWI18G
09:30:50Z.111 MCP/FMC ALT: 38000 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:50Z.553 MCP/FMC ALT: 38000 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:50Z.619 MCP/FMC ALT: 38000 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:50Z.626 T,3c6618,43.118408,5.673736,38000,GWI18G
09:30:51Z.127 T,3c6618,43.119095,5.674247,38000,GWI18G
09:30:51Z.636 T,3c6618,43.120453,5.675092,38000,GWI18G
09:30:52Z.386 MCP/FMC ALT: 38000 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:52Z.567 T,3c6618,43.122208,5.676482,38000,GWI18G
09:30:53Z.036 T,3c6618,43.122894,5.676993,38000,GWI18G
09:30:53Z.546 T,3c6618,43.124271,5.678166,38000,GWI18G
09:30:54Z.083 MCP/FMC ALT: 13008 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:54Z.096 T,3c6618,43.125295,5.678689,38000,GWI18G
09:30:54Z.676 T,3c6618,43.125961,5.679421,38000,GWI18G
09:30:55Z.156 T,3c6618,43.127157,5.680259,38000,GWI18G
09:30:55Z.397 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< ----------------------------------------- bye bye
09:30:55Z.453 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:55Z.636 T,3c6618,43.128367,5.681109,38025,GWI18G
09:30:56Z.186 T,3c6618,43.129211,5.681656,38025,GWI18G
09:30:56Z.707 T,3c6618,43.129898,5.682167,38000,GWI18G
09:30:57Z.267 T,3c6618,43.131626,5.683201,38000,GWI18G
09:30:57Z.312 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:57Z.836 T,3c6618,43.132507,5.684020,38000,GWI18G
09:30:58Z.050 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:30:58Z.296 T,3c6618,43.133011,5.684403,38000,GWI18G
09:30:58Z.767 T,3c6618,43.134559,5.685425,38000,GWI18G
09:30:59Z.216 T,3c6618,43.135397,5.685948,38000,GWI18G
09:30:59Z.746 T,3c6618,43.136261,5.686575,38000,GWI18G
09:30:59Z.988 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:00Z.146 T,3c6618,43.137451,5.687149,38000,GWI18G
09:31:00Z.165 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:00Z.676 T,3c6618,43.137817,5.687660,38000,GWI18G
09:31:01Z.676 T,3c6618,43.139866,5.689022,38000,GWI18G
09:31:02Z.027 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:02Z.238 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:02Z.496 T,3c6618,43.141402,5.690199,38000,GWI18G
09:31:03Z.030 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:03Z.456 T,3c6618,43.143494,5.691429,38000,GWI18G
09:31:04Z.376 T,3c6618,43.145731,5.692945,37975,GWI18G
09:31:04Z.943 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:05Z.346 T,3c6618,43.147430,5.693984,37975,GWI18G
09:31:05Z.558 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:05Z.993 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:06Z.466 T,3c6618,43.149828,5.695365,37975,GWI18G
09:31:07Z.164 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:07Z.346 T,3c6618,43.151367,5.696539,37950,GWI18G
09:31:08Z.256 T,3c6618,43.153427,5.697752,37950,GWI18G
09:31:08Z.776 T,3c6618,43.154111,5.698308,37925,GWI18G
09:31:09Z.276 T,3c6618,43.154995,5.698962,37925,GWI18G
09:31:09Z.712 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:09Z.960 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:10Z.326 T,3c6618,43.157364,5.700307,37925,GWI18G
09:31:11Z.312 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:11Z.467 T,3c6618,43.159607,5.701713,37900,GWI18G
09:31:11Z.876 T,3c6618,43.160660,5.702415,37900,GWI18G
09:31:12Z.102 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:12Z.386 T,3c6618,43.161512,5.702885,37875,GWI18G
09:31:12Z.846 T,3c6618,43.162211,5.703408,37875,GWI18G
09:31:13Z.316 T,3c6618,43.163049,5.704128,37875,GWI18G
09:31:13Z.896 T,3c6618,43.164597,5.704970,37875,GWI18G
09:31:14Z.401 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:14Z.493 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:15Z.536 T,3c6618,43.168030,5.707201,37825,GWI18G
09:31:16Z.416 T,3c6618,43.169380,5.707921,37825,GWI18G
09:31:17Z.028 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:17Z.266 T,3c6618,43.171288,5.709294,37800,GWI18G
09:31:18Z.196 T,3c6618,43.173019,5.710144,37775,GWI18G
09:31:19Z.166 T,3c6618,43.175385,5.711648,37750,GWI18G
09:31:19Z.262 MCP/FMC ALT: 96 ft QNH: 1006.0 hPa
09:31:20Z.176 T,3c6618,43.177277,5.712891,37725,GWI18G
09:31:21Z.216 T,3c6618,43.179202,5.714068,37700,GWI18G

Between 09:30:52 and 09:30:55 we can see that the autopilot was manually changed from 38,000 feet to 100 feet and 9 seconds later the aircraft started to descend, probably with the "open descent" autopilot setting.
The reason why the selected altitude is 96ft is that least significant bit for altitude setting equals 16 ft, and we suspect that you can’t set autopilot to 0000 altitude, so the minimum would be 100ft down rounded to 96ft in binary representation in BDS40h register.

Source: http://forum.flightradar24.com/threads/8650-We-have-analysed-the-raw-data-from-the-transponder-of-4U9525-and-found-some-more-dat?p=64616

**KiloFiX**

Thinking about it - Couldn't the co-pilot have just manually flown the plane into the ground though if he really wanted to suicide?