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Have some unpainted SM models and it has come to the time where I must decide their Chapter.
If I was going on a rules-only basis which would be the best one to choose ?
I have quite a conservative and defensive play style so I am thinking Iron Hands or Imperial Fists...
Suggestions would be helpful

Iron Hands or Salamanders. For a conservative play style I'd go the former.

Depends on situation imho
Some drop pod action = toiletries
Bikes scars
Gladius parking lot hands or fists
Melta fun salamanders
Scout/infiltrate raptors
Bolter scouts fists

However overall toilets are pretty much top choice cause of doctrines.

Personally im a rogue trader era guy so I enjoy my crimson's

This depends entirely on what your putting on the table. If your not taking a lot of bikes for example, then White Scars are kinda wasted

on the other hand if you don't have a lot of infantry with bolters than Fists are sorta a waste. build your army first and then plug in the tactic that works for you

I personally like Ultramarines, because you can get a bump when you need it most -- and enough of a bump to make it game-winning, if you do it right.

Play style and experience make a huge difference, though. My suggestion is to just use different ones and try 'em out til you find one you like the best

It entirely depends on the list, but most people will agree Raven Guard have the worst of it. Even then, the Shrouded bonus for Bikers and Jump Marines is kinda nice...

Red Scorpions CT will help you if you're playing defensive. Free Apothecary upgrades for your Tactical Squads + access to Loth isn't a bad deal.

White scars is a very powerful ct, even if you aren't running bikes. Army wide hit and run is a huge deal. It's an ability that people bring overly expensive characters or sometimes entire allied forces just to get. Virtually every competitive battle company uses WS tactics.

Red hunters have a pretty sleek tactic. Suddenly in the middle of the action around turn 3ish, you blow it to give some units the perfect rule for their situation.

Overall though, it depends on your list. Grav-Skyhammer really benefits from UM doctrines, while other heavy weapons may enjoy being imperial fists for tank hunter and bolter drill more, for example.

So I would say scars would be your best bet in the plurality of lists, but it isn't exactly rare to make a list where another tactic fits better.

As much as I hate to say it, Ultramarines have a pretty handy CT. Two good rounds of shooting with the Tactical and Devastator doctrine, and the Assault Doctrine when you get into melee.

I'm also a sucker for that free FNP, or the White Scars tricks.