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So let us just accept for a moment that the 13th black crusade is successful and cadia falls, there are other threads to argue whether abbadon will be victorious.
After the fall of the imperium who will become the new dominant race?
Here is my thoughts on the matter:
The imperium falls.*
Chaos, although victorious, are crippled by the campaign.
The eye of terror will swallow most of the left side of the galaxy.
Eldar and dark eldar will be ravaged by slaanesh marines/daemons pushing them even closer to extinction.
The necrons will delve into the eye of terror in an attempt to recover and perhaps revitalise the pylons on cadia.
The tau and tyranids will capitalise on the newly weakened borders of the imperium and slaughter the right side of the galaxy.
The Orks will carry on looting the imperium worlds.
*Although the imperium has fallen any left over imperial forces will either: hunt the heretics in a veangence campaign or they will return to their home worlds and defend them from the xenos.

So who comes out as the new empire that controls the galaxy? For me it is either the tau, they are the ones who want to build a massive empire, or the tyranids, they may not "rule" the galaxy persay but they will stop others from ruling it. Whilst the orks are pretty strong they have no wish for a massive empire, cos all they needz is some squishy alien skulls ta bang togeder, and all that.

Any other theories?
Please excuse any glaring fluff errors as I don't read as much 40k literature as I would like to.

The Tau Empire is currently only roughly the size of Ultramar, yet they are already showing signs of dissent (Farsight). I somehow doubt they are ready to be a galaxy-spanning empire.

 EnTyme wrote:
The Tau Empire is currently only roughly the size of Ultramar, yet they are already showing signs of dissent (Farsight). I somehow doubt they are ready to be a galaxy-spanning empire.

Tau are a lot bigger than Ultramar. Ultramar is 8 worlds, Tau have over 100 Septs.

Anyway, if mankind falls nothing stops Chaos except the Orks.

Okay, so they currently have 100 Septs. The imperium consists of roughly 1 million inhabited worlds. You still have a long way to go before you look like a likely successor. There actually single hive worlds in the Imperium with more citizens than the entire Tau Empire.

If Chaos wins... Chaos wins it all. Tyranids don't like fighting daemons because there is no biomass to take so they would leave, Eldar are screwed. Necrons are likely the last hope, but they would probably just leave the galaxy then deal with it.

With all the imperium worlds left scantly deffended tyranids will cross the galaxy devouring all they encounter only the necrons might have a shot at preventing it.

Orks will have fun fighting the nids but will likely not get a definite victory with the nids easy acces to biomass.

Tau are irrelevant and will be wiped out there empire is tiny on a galactic scale.

I didn't know tau were so insignificant, as a chaos player the only way I hear about tau is through a friend of mine who plays tau. Of course he makes them out to be the new empire of the galaxy.

So with tau out of the picture the eldar die off, the heretics get bored because there aren't any humans left to corrupt, the necrons go find a new galaxy and the tyranids and ork fight for eternity over the dead galaxy.

How bright the future of 40k looks.

 Harriticus wrote:

 EnTyme wrote:
The Tau Empire is currently only roughly the size of Ultramar, yet they are already showing signs of dissent (Farsight). I somehow doubt they are ready to be a galaxy-spanning empire.

Tau are a lot bigger than Ultramar. Ultramar is 8 worlds, Tau have over 100 Septs.

Anyway, if mankind falls nothing stops Chaos except the Orks.

Try 500 worlds in eight systems, hence, the five hundred worlds of Ultramar. They are only given the names they are given for simplicity's sake.
Liken it to star wars. The Hoth 'system' is home to Hoth planets, and the Hoth shown is just one in that system but we call it "Hoth" for simplicity. Either that or the rest are insignificant (Espandor, Calth, Macragge... etc. All key locations of Ultramarine Heroes.)

 TheCrusadeSmurf wrote:

 Harriticus wrote:

 EnTyme wrote:
The Tau Empire is currently only roughly the size of Ultramar, yet they are already showing signs of dissent (Farsight). I somehow doubt they are ready to be a galaxy-spanning empire.

Tau are a lot bigger than Ultramar. Ultramar is 8 worlds, Tau have over 100 Septs.

Anyway, if mankind falls nothing stops Chaos except the Orks.

Try 500 worlds in eight systems, hence, the five hundred worlds of Ultramar. They are only given the names they are given for simplicity's sake.
Liken it to star wars. The Hoth 'system' is home to Hoth planets, and the Hoth shown is just one in that system but we call it "Hoth" for simplicity. Either that or the rest are insignificant (Espandor, Calth, Macragge... etc. All key locations of Ultramarine Heroes.)

The Five Hundred World's got broken up and given to Second Founding Chapters post-HH, which is why Ultramar only consists of eight World's now (it's basically just the Macragge system, the rest was given to successor Chapters in order to neuter the UM)

The eldar dies because Chaos take over the galaxy?

i have 2 words for you Rhana Dandra!

The final battle between all Eldar vs Slaanesh, add Ceogorach's Jest and the expected surge of Ynnead and that may be the final trigger to allow the eldar to escape from their fate and defeat Slaanesh.

And now without Slaanesh the innmaterium will return to the massive stormcrap it was that literally impeded mankind expansion tru the stars.

It's 40k, it's Grimdark and there is always a lot of If's.

Hypothetically.......

If the Imperium of Man falls, most of it's former territory will likely break up into successor states. The size of these states will depend on the state of Astronomican, which will likely not be working if the Armless Wonder finally pulls it off. Most of these new empires, and the independent worlds that survived the collapse due to a high level of self-sufficiency, won't last long though.

The Eldar will likely be screwed, especially the Craftworlds closer to the Eye/Maelstrom, or those in Abbadon's invasion corridor(s). The kinky cowards in the Webway and Amish Space Elves probably won't be affected much at first.

The Tau will find that any expansion, and holding turf, will be a lot harder without the Imperium to distract the bulk of the big-bads in the galaxy. I don't see these upstarts forming a galaxy-wide empire at this point.

The various minor, known sentient xenos species will continue to do what they've always done: Live off the scraps of the bigger fish in the pond.

In the end though, it will come down to three competitors fighting over the galaxy: the Necrons, Orks, and Tyranids. They'll eventually finish off most of the Eldar they can get to, conquer/destroy most of the remaining Human political entities (if not wipe out Mankind outright), and possibly put intense pressure on the Tau if they don't kill them all off.

Endless war continues.

Cue grimdark.

Lord Perversor wrote:
The eldar dies because Chaos take over the galaxy?

i have 2 words for you Rhana Dandra!

The final battle between all Eldar vs Slaanesh, add Ceogorach's Jest and the expected surge of Ynnead and that may be the final trigger to allow the eldar to escape from their fate and defeat Slaanesh.

And now without Slaanesh the innmaterium will return to the massive stormcrap it was that literally impeded mankind expansion tru the stars.

It's 40k, it's Grimdark and there is always a lot of If's.

I thought the rhana dandra was the predicted destruction of the eldar (and maybe everything) not the eldars defeat of slaanesh.

 mrhappyface wrote:

Lord Perversor wrote:
The eldar dies because Chaos take over the galaxy?

i have 2 words for you Rhana Dandra!

The final battle between all Eldar vs Slaanesh, add Ceogorach's Jest and the expected surge of Ynnead and that may be the final trigger to allow the eldar to escape from their fate and defeat Slaanesh.

And now without Slaanesh the innmaterium will return to the massive stormcrap it was that literally impeded mankind expansion tru the stars.

It's 40k, it's Grimdark and there is always a lot of If's.

I thought the rhana dandra was the predicted destruction of the eldar (and maybe everything) not the eldars defeat of slaanesh.

Well the lore set it as the *final battle* where the Eldar ann they remainning gods will finally die.

but the lore it's not fixed some parts imply that after this Ynnead will be born and thus save the Eldar race, Harlequin lore states there is a secret passage in the book where Ceogorach explains a *final jest* to trick Slaanesh to sacrifice itself somehow and save the Eldar.

all i just want to point is that Chaos takes over and it devours everything as a single united force it's not an accurate statement as there is lots of major plot holes still hanging and any single change may wreack absolute havoc. (Quick example mankind was pretty much isolated in Terra and unable to use Warp travel until Slaanesh born, since it bring a semblance of balance for the warp )

 TheCrusadeSmurf wrote:

 Harriticus wrote:

 EnTyme wrote:
The Tau Empire is currently only roughly the size of Ultramar, yet they are already showing signs of dissent (Farsight). I somehow doubt they are ready to be a galaxy-spanning empire.

Tau are a lot bigger than Ultramar. Ultramar is 8 worlds, Tau have over 100 Septs.

Anyway, if mankind falls nothing stops Chaos except the Orks.

Try 500 worlds in eight systems, hence, the five hundred worlds of Ultramar. They are only given the names they are given for simplicity's sake.
Liken it to star wars. The Hoth 'system' is home to Hoth planets, and the Hoth shown is just one in that system but we call it "Hoth" for simplicity. Either that or the rest are insignificant (Espandor, Calth, Macragge... etc. All key locations of Ultramarine Heroes.)

It was 500 worlds during the Heresy. In M41 Ultramar is 11 worlds divided into 8 Systems: Macragge, Calth, Talassa Prime, Konor, Espandor, Iax, Parmenio, Talassar, Masali, Tarentus, Quintarn. Tau Empire is much larger.

A system is a solar system, usually named for its local star or its capital world. A solar system may contain scores of planets, some or all featuring human habitation. The remainder of the former Realm of Ultramar has been given over to the Successor Chapters of the Ultramarines.

The Segmentum Ultima, within which the Tau Empire is located, covers the eastern half of the galaxy, stretching from the border of the Segmentum Solar all the way to the edge of the galactic disc.

The Tau Empire is comparatively microscopic in relation to the Imperium. It is Rhode Island to the continental US, at best (and even that might be overstating its size a bit).

Well, i guess it depends on how many space marine chapters could make it to the defence of terra? If all of them were there and they still lost then the imperial remnants would be ed, if most of them were somehow held up and survived the fall of terra then I guess they could help the survivors put up a fight?

Actually, now that I think about it they couldn't get anywhere without FTL travel..... nevermind

Yeah, once the Astronomican goes out, that's it for the Imperium. They will still manage to defend whatever local systems they have resources in, perhaps for a good while (Fenris and Ultramar, as two examples, would stand for quite awhile) but, on the galactic stage, the Imperium would be a non-player.

Orks. In the end there is only one truly valid answer and it is Orks.

Chaos would ultimately win.

This is exactly what happened with the End Times, where Archaon (the much more competent predecessor to Abaddon) made Chaos Win, and the entire world basically collapsed. Breaking through the Eye, traitors and daemonic forces would overrun the known universe. Cultists would spring up from every crack in the Imperium while Abaddon carved his way to Terra. The Eldar and Dark Eldar would probably gak themselves in horror as Daemons took over realspace and started cracking soulstones/breaking into the webway. That or they retreat into the webway entirely to leave the "lesser" races to their fate.

After the Chaos Gods have had their fill with the 40k Universe, they'd do exactly what they did with Fantasy; burp and move on to the next dimension to dick over. All that will remain at the end are a few pockets of Eldar who hid in the webway (assuming that hasn't been broken into) and the Necrons, who will probably be left behind because of their lack of a warp presence and galaxy-spanning empire still in stasis. They will be left eternally depressed as they scavenge through what's left of the universe, only to realize they will never be able to have a flesh body again due to the Chaos Gods nuking every other sentient race.

Abaddon defeats the emperor,

Gods Spawn Abaddon.

Ahriman beats Tzeentch in a game of snakes and ladders, is no longer a pawn of chaos and sits on his throne as the Prince of Bel Air Emperor of Mankind, which becomes his prison (Tzeentch's last laugh).

The king is dead, long live the king. Nothing really changes in day to day life of the Imperium.

Abbadon can't win a Black Crusade, the Chaos gods won't allow it. If Abbadon wins, humanity falls and Chaos becomes extremely weaker.

At the time of GeeDubs freezing the plot this is what is happening to the major factions:

The Imperium: Abaddon is on the verge of taking Cadia and innumerable other worlds are being lost to Xenos, Warp Storms etc. The Space Marines and Guard cannot keep up with the threats. The Astronomican is flickering too.

Orks: With Ghazgkull leaving Armageddon to unite all Orks for the last Waaagh! The Orks are thriving like never before.

Chaos: Abaddon is on the verge of taking Cadia and Warp Storms becoming ever more frequent Chaos is on the verge of taking over the Galaxy.

Eldar: their race is slowly dying still and she who thirsts is becoming ever closer. Their only hope is that Cegorach can trick Slaanesh into using all of its power to save the Eldar or that Ynnead can obliterate Slaanesh.

Dark Eldar: There is a civil war in Comorragh between Vect and Malys as both believe the other wants to open the Webway gate underneath Comorragh which is the opposite of what each other want.

Necrons: The Silent King is heading back into the Galaxy to try and save it from the Tyranids and more and more tomb worlds are awakening.

Tau: on the verge of being eaten by hive fleet Kraken but are expanding almost as fast. Their technology is developing faster too.

Tyranids: The Tyranids are eating even more planets and more Hive Fleets are appearing at the edge of the Galaxy. If there is one thing more threatening than Chaos this is it.

 Tibs Ironblood wrote:
Orks. In the end there is only one truly valid answer and it is Orks.

Gotta go pretty close to this, I think really in the end it would be an endless war of attrition, basically a cycle of death and rebirth between the orks and nids. The more orks that show up the more nids are created and the more nids to fight then more orks show up.

Huron Blackheart wins because the moment that Chaos takes Cadia, they'll splinter like they always do, and the Red Corsairs grow larger.

Typhoom wrote:

 Tibs Ironblood wrote:
Orks. In the end there is only one truly valid answer and it is Orks.

Gotta go pretty close to this, I think really in the end it would be an endless war of attrition, basically a cycle of death and rebirth between the orks and nids. The more orks that show up the more nids are created and the more nids to fight then more orks show up.

In the end, the Orks could never win. They die and although so too do the Nids, the tyranids literally recycle the biomass. So with every engagement, they only grow stronger. The Orks have no such advantage.

Forget the end times - I think the Tyranids eventually take over the galaxy as is. In the grim darkness of the farther future, there is only hunger. Because the Tyranids already have eaten everyone but are still hungry.

It has to be Orks as Ghazgkull will have nothing in his way. He will grow into the biggest boss in all existence and be able to sit on Titans for fun:
Imperial worlds: Will all fall one by one as they will essentially be left to fight solo, which no world except Terra or Mars being able to stop a Waaaagh, and Chaos will have handled them. Each world becomes a spawning pond and thus an unlimited source of boyz.
Chaos: Will forever see themselves as above a simple xenos war so will turn on each other as they inevitably must. Those that do deign to battle the boyz will either be outnumbered (if not outclassed) and destroyed, or win only phyrric victories.
Tau: Too small scale to be a concern but the meks will love adapting the new tech, cheers.
Eldar (Dark and Light): Too busy with Slaanesh to notice they are already irrelevant. The death matches might be allowed to continue.
Necrons: Show no interest in fighting the boyz as they see all their tech as barbaric and too new so disappear to make out with the C'Tan or whatever they do in their free time.
Tyranids: The biggest competition, but an Ork without a fight is not an Ork at all, so their wars will keep the boyz amused for all eternity.
Squats: Make a surprising comeback and are given a free pass for a few millennia due to being mistaken for very pale grots with hairy squig fetishes.

"if not outclassed"
You what?
Orks never 'outclass' chaos, they may outnumber: a chaos lord drowning in the green mucas.
(Personally never lost to the green stuff)

I see it as an immortal battle between Chaos, Tyranids, and Orks. All of them share a similar ability to continually replenish their numbers. Daemons will keep ripping open warp instabilities, Orks will continue to spore, and tyranids will recycle their biomass. It could come down to the biomass of the orks being consumed by the Tyranids, though, unless there is some fluff that says Ork biomass is incompatible? Daemons are made of raw warp-stuff, so they can't be consumed by the swarm, as far as I know.

I thought the rhana dandra was the predicted destruction of the eldar (and maybe everything) not the eldars defeat of slaanesh.

The Rhana Dandra is a classic "everyone dies at the end" ragnarok-esque final battle.

According to elder prophecies it's not garuanteed they will win, only that they have a chance to - which is a lot better than any other possible future.

Ork and Tyranid swarms would swamp everything, they'd duke it out with each other after annihilating everyone else and probably wipe each other to near extinction.
Perhaps with a few Tyranids left to die out with nothing left to devour