7 years of plenty in the industry

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**reds8n**

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33916/seven-years-plenty-hobby-games-business

The year that just ended, 2015, was a seventh consecutive growth year in the hobby games business, according to retailers, distributors, and publishers interviewed by ICv2 as sources for a report in the latest issue of ICv2's Internal Correspondence, #89.

With a growth rate of around 20% (rounded up to the nearest 5%), there were widespread areas of strength. In collectible games, the largest category, Magic: The Gathering continued to grow, and Pokemon grew faster, especially in the mass market, with other collectible games also doing well.

In miniatures, the second-largest category, Fantasy Flight Games' Star Wars games drove dollars upward with broader distribution, better supply, and an incredible surge in consumer interest and demand.

Better holiday availability of key board games in 2015, especially on those from Fantasy Flight Games and Z-Man Games, helped support growth in the category through its most important season. On the flip side of availability, sufficient supply helped contribute to widespread heavy discounting of board games by Amazon third party sellers, which is focusing attention on manufacturer policies designed to prevent channel leak from brick and mortar to online.

Card games grew even faster than board games, albeit from a smaller base, and roleplaying games, with a strong year from category leader Dungeons & Dragons, also had a good year.

The holiday season had some unusual patterns, weaker than usual in November and early December and then a flurry of sales in the second half of December. Online sales may have influenced that unusual seasonality, with customers flocking to stores when online shopping could no longer get their orders to them in time.

Here are links to ICv2's charts of the Top Hobby Games across five categories for Fall (September-December 2015), which first appeared in Internal Correspondence #89:

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33915/top-collectible-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33914/top-10-hobby-channel-board-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/reviews/view/33913/top-10-hobby-channel-card-dice-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33911/top-5-roleplaying-games-fall-2015

http://icv2.com/articles/markets/view/33912/top-5-non-collectible-miniature-games-fall-2015

**zedmeister**

Did I read that right? X-Wing has taken the top spot?

Though, the GW entry only reads "Warhammer" is that 40k? 40k/WFHB/AoS combined? Something else?

**Kilkrazy**

Remember that the ICV2 survey doesn't include any of GW's own sales results through their shops or web site.

However if the market as a whole has experienced further growth, it seems likely that GW has been slipping bacl again, given their static results.

**Cave_Dweller**

The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it. I wonder if its success is due to the new Star Wars movie and the mania that follows Star Wars collectibles.

**Kilkrazy**

That certainly hasn't hurt. You can buy the starter set in book shops here in the UK, thanks to the new film.

**pgmason**

X-wing is massively successful and is played a lot. There's a very active organised play programme. The UK nationals in June will be a 512 player tournament and is already more than half sold out.

**Absolutionis**

D&D is back at the top spot with Pathfinder 2nd. That's nice that Wizards finally cleaned up their miscarriage. Pity that all the White Wolf stuff isn't even on the chart.

**OrlandotheTechnicoloured**

Yup now FFG have mostly fixed the supply chain issues Warhammer 40K looses the top spot to Xwing (and Armada moves up to no 3) in Q4

(although that is apparently due to Xwing selling more rather than 40K selling less)

The next survey is going to be really really interesting to see if this is a blip or a longer term change

also interesting is the AoS is doing better than Fantasy (well it would be hard to do worse), but it's still well off hitting the top 5, still is seems that GW is moving in the right direction (Even if it is being bought by people to convert into blood angels)

**MeanGreenStompa**

I see X wing for sale at major bookstore chains in the US, and not just a boxed set or a couple of ships, but two aisles of the stuff.

**alphaecho**

MeanGreenStompa wrote:
I see X wing for sale at major bookstore chains in the US, and not just a boxed set or a couple of ships, but two aisles of the stuff.

The Waterstones chain in the UK carries X Wing. They often seem to have more stock than some of the FLGS. I know they had the Tantive IV when no-one else seemed to have them in stock as I picked one up using book tokens and loyalty points from the store card!

**Mario**

Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it.

Could it be that the game is a bit easier to play at home than a traditional tabletop wargame. Some of the buyers might be more board game-ish people who just play at home and are not even used to playing at stores.

**-Loki-**

Mario wrote:
Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it.

Could it be that the game is a bit easier to play at home than a traditional tabletop wargame. Some of the buyers might be more board game-ish people who just play at home and are not even used to playing at stores.

It's still got list building with some not so simple synergies and uses terrain (asteroids), requiring a 3x3 space to play on. It's massive accessibility comes from being entirely pre-painted and pre-built. It's just so easy to grab a core set, get home, clear off the dining table, throw some printed card asteroids down, and get into it. I don't even play it regularly and have a small Scum and Villainy collection because I think the ships are badass. The fact that I didn't have to build them or paint them is a mega bonus.

**HungGarRebel**

It's good to see the industry is going strong, there's nothing like passing on the passion to a new generation of gamers.

*cough* that's why I always let the young kids beat me *cough*

... honestly..

**Crazy_Carnifex**

Cave_Dweller wrote:
The X-Wing game...I've seen this in every gaming store I've been to. But I've never actually seen anyone playing the game or even heard people talking about it. I wonder if its success is due to the new Star Wars movie and the mania that follows Star Wars collectibles.

I doubt it. Probably hasn't hurt, but it was gaining steam before then.

**Korinov**

An otiose niche after all, eh?

**durecellrabbit**

X-Wing has a lot going for it. It's genuinely a good game that is simple enough to learn so non gamers can play it with you while having enough depth to support a big competitive scene. It has small buy in cost and doesn't use much space.

Prepainted miniatures open it to a bigger potential player base and while being pre made and painted might lack appeal to us hobbyists it also makes it a good secondary game for us when our painting queue is full.

I also imagine it's getting a nice boost from the new movie like GW's LotR game did.

**jonolikespie**

OrlandotheTechnicoloured wrote:
also interesting is the AoS is doing better than Fantasy (well it would be hard to do worse), but it's still well off hitting the top 5, still is seems that GW is moving in the right direction (Even if it is being bought by people to convert into blood angels)

Where are you getting that from?

**Adam LongWalker**

Absolutionis wrote:
D&D is back at the top spot with Pathfinder 2nd. That's nice that Wizards finally cleaned up their miscarriage. Pity that all the White Wolf stuff isn't even on the chart.

Been in top spot for close to a year now. Approx 60% of the RPG sales are 5ed related. I did a lot of taking to people I know within the gaming/ entertainment industry so I got some decent figures. I sort of need to if I decide to do a RPG gaming module in the future.

But the RPG industry overall is still incredibly small... if you compare it too, such as board games as an example.

I think what is really telling that Icv2 only expressed Warhammer on their chart. It could be a typo error. It could be a combination of 40k/whatever they call fantasy. But regardless of the matter is that GW's game comes in at #2.

Again something that I have repeatedly commented. GW can not hide anymore with lack of information/disinformation on how profitable this company is.

It was a global company with its headquarters in England.

It has now digressed to a English company with decreasing global interest.

What is also telling that the Star Trek game is number 5. I find that now interesting as well.

**FeindusMaximus**

Glad I sold all my x-wing stuff. I got out at the right time then (sold high). X-wing is ok, but just "card/ship" creep for every "wave". So if you don't mind dropping 100-200 couple times a year.

**StraightSilver**

These figures are entirely misleading though and don't actually in any way reflect market share, which GW still owns a huge amount of.

The figures included exclude GW's own sales and also don't take into account GW's add on sales such as miniatures, paints etc.

In terms of starter sets yes X-Wing is outselling Warhammer, but it isn't by any means outselling Warhammer overall.

The Asmodee Group who own FFG reportedly have a Market Share of 24% (although that figure is from 2015) but obviously that includes sales of all of their products not just FFG sales. GW don't report their Market Share but it is way in excess of 24%. Admitedly it's very hard to compare Asmodee with GW though as Asmodee has a larger annual turnover but they are a much larger group that don't just sell wargames products and count Hasbro as one of their competitors. Again it's like trying to compare apples and oranges.

However it is telling that GW have refused to accept that they are losing market share to other games for far too long. For 30 years they have believed they are the hobby, but board games are currently seeing a massive growth and GW won't be able to hide from this forever.

Market share is a massive deal in retail but GW seem to be an exception as they don't share their individual sales break downs so we will never know which particular products are doing well or not.

But bear in mind that the figures in the report don't have access to all the sales figures and you can't really compare X-Wing to Warhammer as one is a ready to play board game and the other is a hobby orientated table top game.

**H.B.M.C.**

*frown*

No 40K RPG on the list. I wish FFG would start doing them again. This drought is annoying. I get that you strike whilst the Star Wars iron is hot, but abandoning everything else?

StraightSilver wrote:
These figures are entirely misleading though and don't actually in any way reflect market share, which GW still owns a huge amount of.

They reflect stockist sales. There's nothing misleading about that.

**StraightSilver**

They reflect sales from retailers and stockists but only of boxed games and exclude GW's own sales figures. They also exclude peripheral sales so don't include sales of minis or paints. So yes thay are actually very misleading.

**H.B.M.C.**

Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

**StraightSilver**

H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

It's just incredibly bad data collection presented as fact which it isn't.

Admittedly that's no doubt GW's own fault as I am sure they were offered the chance to include their figures but refused. It was the same with Black LIbrary, GW refused to add their titles to Nielson Book Data which meant they were never hitting the best seller lists even though their sales were outstripping many other larger publisher's titles.

Don't get me wrong, I accept that X-Wing is doing very well and in the board games market is a huge success story, but GW really don't have anything to worry about in terms of the table top wargaming business - they are two entirely different products so are difficult to compare.

**Bottle**

-

**Shotgun**

StraightSilver wrote:

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

It's just incredibly bad data collection presented as fact which it isn't.

Admittedly that's no doubt GW's own fault as I am sure they were offered the chance to include their figures but refused. It was the same with Black LIbrary, GW refused to add their titles to Nielson Book Data which meant they were never hitting the best seller lists even though their sales were outstripping many other larger publisher's titles.

Don't get me wrong, I accept that X-Wing is doing very well and in the board games market is a huge success story, but GW really don't have anything to worry about in terms of the table top wargaming business - they are two entirely different products so are difficult to compare.

This isn't bad data collection, and it is fact...for anyone selling product other than GW. No it doesn't have GW's direct sales, but for any retailer other than GW, that fact doesn't really matter. When "Joe's Friendly Local Game Store" decides he wants to expand out of selling just MtG cards and Pokemon into tabletop gaming, he now sees that GW -isn't- the market leader. This is a partially a function of GW's own hubris that it didn't need the flgs to continue to lead the pack and partially the reality that other companies are making some good stuff.

This also has to be worrisome for GW. You don't need to go to GW direct to buy more minis if you aren't picking up GW's core sets to begin with. This data is real, and it shows what GW knows...it has to come out of its fortress if it wants to remain relevant.

**Thud**

StraightSilver wrote:
H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

What are you basing your statement that this is only Dark Vengeance and Age of Sigmar?

It says miniature lines. Not specific kits.

Also, of course this doesn't mean that X-Wing is bigger than 40k as a whole. It means that X-Wing is outselling 40k in independent retailers.

**Fenrir Kitsune**

StraightSilver wrote:
They reflect sales from retailers and stockists but only of boxed games and exclude GW's own sales figures. They also exclude peripheral sales so don't include sales of minis or paints. So yes thay are actually very misleading.

Whats the sales of paint got to do with anything? I don't see Dulux on the list, but they sell paint.

**StraightSilver**

The point is the figures relate to "non-collectable" board games.

These are self contained boxed games with no peripheral sales (minis, paints, rule books etc).

Warhammer does not fall ino this category as boxed sets such as Age of Sigmar and Dark Vengeance are a tiny percentage of overall sales and also require peripheral sales to play the game - which X-Wing does not.

Therefore you cannot really compare X-Wing to Warhammer - it is like trying to compare apples with oranges.

To then exclude GW's own sales also completely skews the figures so it is bad data collection and frankly pretty meaningless.

The survey gives thhe impression that X-Wing is now the market leader and is out performing Warhammer, which it isn't even in independents.

If you include GW's sales figures alongside peripheral sales such as army books, miniatures, paint etc Warhammer actually has a much larger percentage of sales and a much larger market share.

I'm not saying the figures are wrong as long as you understand that they exclude peripheral sales and GW sales but it is wrong to imply that X-Wing has taken over the top spot in terms of sales and market share.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Thud wrote:
StraightSilver wrote:
H.B.M.C. wrote:
Of course they are excluding GW's own figures, because it's stockist data. That's all it's meant to be. That's all it's comparing.

It's not as if the results are claiming to be the be-all and end-all of all retail sales of these products across all channels. They're just stockist sales. That's not misleading, it's just narrowly focused.

I understand that but to say that X-Wing has overtaken Warhammer in terms of sales is entirely misleading because it isn't true. Yes Independent retailers are selling more copies of X-Wing compared to copies of Dark Vengeance or Age of Sigmar but that doesn't mean they are outselling Warhammer as a whole.

What are you basing your statement that this is only Dark Vengeance and Age of Sigmar?

It says miniature lines. Not specific kits.

Also, of course this doesn't mean that X-Wing is bigger than 40k as a whole. It means that X-Wing is outselling 40k in independent retailers.

The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

**Arschbombe**

StraightSilver wrote:

The figures don't include miniature sales at all, and that's my point. They only included Games Workshop starter sets, the figures are for non-collectable boxed games.

No. X-wing tops the chart for Top 5 Non-Collectible Miniature Games, not board games. Your protests are misplaced.