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40 shots at BS3 hit 20
20 rerolls at BS3 hit 10
this makes 30 potential hits
S3 wounds a T3 model (another guardsman) at 4+, this makes 15 wounds
S3 wounds a T4 model (a spess mereen) at 5+, this makes 10 wounds
S3 wounds a T5&T6 model (a spess mereen bike) at 6+, this makes 5 wounds
if we hit the guardsman he has a 5+ armour save or maybe a 4+ cover save, this makes 7 to 10 wounds after the save
if we hit the spess mereen has a 3+ armour save, this makes 5 wounds after the save
if we hit the biker has a 3+ armour save too, this makes 2 wounds after the save
now the same game with the conscripts
100 shots at BS2 hit 33
67 rerolls at BS3 hit 22
this makes 55 potential hits
S3 wounds a T3 model (another guardsman) at 4+, this makes 27 wounds
S3 wounds a T4 model (a spess mereen) at 5+, this makes 18 wounds
S3 wounds a T5&T6 model (a spess mereen bike) at 6+, this makes 9 wounds
if we hit the guardsman he has a 5+ armour save or maybe a 4+ cover save, this makes 13 to 18 wounds after the save
if we hit the spess mereen has a 3+ armour save, this makes 9 wounds after the save
if we hit the biker has a 3+ armour save too, this makes 4 wounds after the save
and all this wounds only if you are able to manifest the divination powers.
this is very sad …
you could skip pask and the vanquisher and take the ordinary tank commander and a LRBT and kurovs aquila. The ccs takes a las cannon (BS4). Hide your ccs between your tanks and the bubble wrap conscripts and every unit within 6” around the warlord gets preferred enemy (tank commander too!!). In addition to that you have enough points to take a second ccs.
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