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Last night I realized that:

To inflict an unsaved wound on a WraithKnight:
AP1,2,3 - WK saves 5:6
AP>3 - WK saves 8:9

That means even with low AP weapon, you would need 48 WOUNDS to bring it down. In my lists, with low or no D weaponry, I realize that I have to keep that thing busy by letting it munch troops. Heres my hardest try-hard list tailored shenanigans and Im still not confident I can mathematically win without great opponent blunders or incredible luck on my part. We play on west coast meta ITC. Hes got 2 lynx, melee knight, 6 hornets, 12 scatbikes

Skyhammer:
5 Devs (Pod) 4 MultiMelta
5 Devs (Pod) 4 MultMelta
5 Assault 1 Eviscerator
5 Assault 1 Eviscerator

Tau CAD:
Ethereal
5 FireWarriors
5 FireWarriors
4 MarkerDrones
2 Stormsurges (4++, Intercept)

Eldar CAD:
Warlock JetBike
3 ScatBikes
3 ScatBikes
3 ShuriBikes

Your math is way off. A WK only natively saves 1 out of 3 wounds against ap1-3 because it has only a 5+ FNP. If it also has 5++ from sword and board then it goes to 5 out of 9 (a little over 50%). No where near 5:6 (which is functionally a 2+)

And even against AP>3 its 7:9 saves.

Also you have storm surges, why aren't you shooting a ton of StrD missiles at the WK?

 CrownAxe wrote:
Your math is way off. A WK only natively saves 1 out of 3 wounds against ap1-3 because it has only a 5+ FNP. If it also has 5++ from sword and board then it goes to 5 out of 9 (a little over 50%). No where near 5:6 (which is functionally a 2+)

And even against AP>3 its 7:9 saves.

Also you have storm surges, why aren't you shooting a ton of StrD missiles at the WK?

Probably because he's got 2x stormsurges and 4x BS2 marker drones, so he's only got ~1-2 markerlights available a turn.

I'd stongly suggest dropping a stormsurge and an Ethereal in favour of a Mark'O for the drones and some crisis. Strongly consider trading out 1 squad of multi-melta devs for grav cannon devs too with the spare points.

Now that WK aren't getting toe in cover 4+, a squad of ultramarine grav devs popping devastator doctrine the turn they come down should be able to drop a WK in a single round.

20 grav shots, (20*4/6+20*2/6*4/6) 17.77 hits, (17.77*4/6+17.77*2/6*4/6) 15.8 wounds, (15.8*4/6) 10.53 unsaved wounds on the 5++ shield, (10.53*4/6) 7.02 unsaved wounds past 5+++ FNP. Use the multi meltas or charge it with the ASM if your dice betray you.

Not sure how your opponent is getting 3x LoW with only 4 troop units though, but I'm not overly knowledgeable with the Lynx, can it be squadroned?

The lynx stopped being a LoW with the Doom of Myera book (its also no longer a super heavy)