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As a universe, 40k is very popular and probably more widely known than ever by dint of being decades old and with lots of videogame visibility.

However, as a tabletop wargame and hobby as GW defines it, in my experience, 40k is shrinking. New players are increasingly rare and vets are dropping out more frequently than ever. Prices are insane, and adjusted for inflation, the game is dramatically more expensive to get into than it was 10 years ago. Likewise the rules are just such total garbage that actually playing the game is just an unpleasant hassle unless youre playing with close gaming pals of very similar mindsets. Furthermore, the background material and art is increasingly less interesting and unique, the quality of the writing has collapsed dramatically while the art and a lot of model stylings are losing a lot of that cartoony 80's heavy metal vibe that defined 40k and is more and more resembling stuff out of League of Legends or WoW, GW's stuff is losing its uniqie feel in a lot of ways. Fewer and fewer people are getting into the tabletop hobby in my experience and fewer are staying in.

 labmouse42 wrote:
Their sales might be down, but their stock still seems strong. If their stock dropped to 200 I would be concerned.


You could also compare tournament numbers to see the general increase decline. How many players have events like NOVA, BAO, or Adepticon had over the past 10 years. Those numbers will give you a much better guide over everyone's anecdotal evidence.

I would avoid using these events as a barometer. These tend to generally attract the most die hard and hardcore people, the kind that often have vast collections they can draw from and will switch from army to army based on what has the best rules, or alternatively may be the only event locals may attend in a year. I know when I was in San Diego, for a time Kingdom Con was really the only 40k event to do all year so it got a huge turnout because there wasnt much of anything else for the year. Their reflectiveness of the larger market is going to be minimized as a result.

Likewise, only Adepticon was even around 10 years ago, the BAO and Nova date back only four or five IIRC.

 labmouse42 wrote:

tneva82 wrote:
1000 people but were they more likely to be tournament goers to begin with? Non tournament players are less likely to visit forums and generally are less visible. So unless the pollers were going to basements of those players they were unlikely to give input...Which skews the result toward more tournament players than there actually is.

Did you actually look at the poll? It was spread over facebook and twitter. Are you going to say now that only tournament players use those social media outlets as well?

the number of players engaging on such outlets is relatively small to be honest, and people that attend large events are the ones usually most into the game and all its media outlets. Most 40k players may check out things from time to time but dont heavily engage in them. Same for most other hobbies and interests, people may be into something, but it doesnt mean theyre all super engaged with the online community.

For instance, I almost never go to forums about videogames or fencing, despite being very into these things. I love Game of Thrones, but pretty much never venture into forums or discussion sites about it. I'm a big fan of the Civilization series of games but you wont find me on their forums discussing the latesy update.

Of the other people I play 40k with, I'm about the only one that engages on forums and the like. Other people may browse BoLS once in a while or may "like" a cool pic they see on Facebook, but thats about it for most of them.

 Griddlelol wrote:
Is there any actual data on this? If not, the thread is pointless. Google trends results are the closest thing, but they're certainly not comprehensive.

as noted, we have GW's financials over the years. Adjusted for inflation they peaked about 2004 and have been on something of a slow and consistent slide since then, while also dramatically increasing prices over that same time period. Simple math tells us that if they're charging way more and making less, they're moving less product, which is hard to then portray as anything but a shrinking customer base.

That said, they remain profitable, but largey through nonrepeatable cost cutting measures, so the revenue decline will make itself known at some point. Thats likely the driving factor behind the massive changes to 40k and fantasy of late.

Duymon wrote:


I know a lot of posts are talking about crazy GW prices but let's be honest, the entire hobby is expensive. I would know.. I also collect Heavy Gear Blitz and Infinity lol

Heavy Gear and Infinity models however are still metal, and a typical game will have 6-15 models, 20 in an absolute horde, most around 8-12, not the the multiple dozens a 40k game will.