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It seems like a lot of stores had been closing in NY when I was younger. With that being said I moved to the DC area about 10 years ago and have found more people playing here. Now it may be because of the population change but it seems like even when you take populations into account there are still a great or number of players down here. So I originally thought 40k was becoming less and less popular because of all the store closings in NY but after being down here I don't know anymore.

So what do you guys think?

Does the increase in model price make fans turn heir backs? Are people getting tired of it? Fans growing out of it? Or is it the opposite, and more people are playing because of the rise of video games and the movie along with more books being put on the shelves?

There's not a whole lot going for the game that would attract more people than it'd lose normally. On top of that, the prices have only gone up, the rules more complicated and confused, and GW does very little to advertise and promote. The new video game licences help, but I'm not sure it'd make that big of a difference when we've already had several quite popular games a few years back that didn't dramatically shift the landscape. Plus, there's all the new competition, especially games like X-Wing that is cheaper and easier to get into.

I think you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that 40k is growing. The financials tend to show that revenue is stagnating, which combined with price increases indicates the player base is roughly the same or shrinking.

As a universe, 40k is very popular and probably more widely known than ever by dint of being decades old and with lots of videogame visibility.

However, as a tabletop wargame and hobby as GW defines it, in my experience, 40k is shrinking. New players are increasingly rare and vets are dropping out more frequently than ever. Prices are insane, and adjusted for inflation, the game is dramatically more expensive to get into than it was 10 years ago. Likewise the rules are just such total garbage that actually playing the game is just an unpleasant hassle unless youre playing with close gaming pals of very similar mindsets. Furthermore, the background material and art is increasingly less interesting and unique, the quality of the writing has collapsed dramatically while the art and a lot of model stylings are losing a lot of that cartoony 80's heavy metal vibe that defined 40k and is more and more resembling stuff out of League of Legends or WoW, GW's stuff is losing its uniqie feel in a lot of ways. Fewer and fewer people are getting into the tabletop hobby in my experience and fewer are staying in.

 Blacksails wrote:
There's not a whole lot going for the game that would attract more people than it'd lose normally. On top of that, the prices have only gone up, the rules more complicated and confused, and GW does very little to advertise and promote. The new video game licences help, but I'm not sure it'd make that big of a difference when we've already had several quite popular games a few years back that didn't dramatically shift the landscape. Plus, there's all the new competition, especially games like X-Wing that is cheaper and easier to get into.

I think you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that 40k is growing. The financials tend to show that revenue is stagnating, which combined with price increases indicates the player base is roughly the same or shrinking.

Pretty much this and whilst I can only speak for my smallish Games Club which has gone from pretty much pure 40k (with a splash of WFB and Historics), to WMH. X-Wing, assorted board games (with a splash of historics) in the space of about five years.

I think price is part of it but I know the quick turnover from 6th to 7th was also a factor.

Price and bad rules have driven people elsewhere.

Poor treatment of flgs has made them stock less or no GW profits.

I would honestly say gaining, i see more and more new people coming in to stores every week.

Honestly the reason for that is all the other fandom have been nuked, and ruined and 40k is turning into a bastion of bad assery. IE Marvel and DC are all but completely destroyed, Star wars got all its EU cut, which was brutal, granted its slowly coming back. LotR has tapered off.

40k as relativly remained unchanged for some 30 years, so.

Gaining.

40k has a lot of warts, but the only place 40k sucks is on forums like this one.

With the new management I would say they are starting a growing trend. It was on the decline at the start of 7th. But with 7.5 books and the various get started packs, people are starting to play in my area more. It isn't at the levels we had at the middle of 6th ed, but people are coming back.

The things I've noticed that hurt the most was the introduction of super heavies/giant creatures and str D being pushed into standard games. That has been the biggest issue as that killed a lot of excitement in the game.

Honestly, getting all the books up to 7.5 standards will help a lot. All our CSM, guard, nid, BA players have all left as they are grossly out matched all the time.

Gaining just because my group has gotten 2 more people. (Although losing one)

Gaining cos DOW3 has been doing rounds across the internet recently. Does that translate into more actual hobbyists? Well we can't determine that.

Either way, DOW3 is looking like processed garbage so far

G.A

I think 40K has always had a pretty high turn-over rate. Keep in mind in the early 2000's the GW retail philosophy in the United States was to achieve an initial $200-300 purchase (normally parents buying stuff for a child) and continuing players were considered secondary.

The universe is still attractive and Space Marines will continue to capture the imagination of young boys who pick up a box randomly in a game store.

The game itself (rules, etc.) is not that good and will continue to gain and lose players. There are some old fans like myself who've been aiming squarely at playing 2nd edition so while I can say I'm about to become a 40K player again - I'm giving very little, if anything to Games Workshop as a customer - buying everything used on ebay from the 90's etc.

I would imagine they maintain a pretty reasonable turnover of players and likely have a decent influx of new players (even if they invest $100-150 and never play the game again).

I approach this from a slightly differe angle.
I first started playing 40k when I was in primary school so probably about 9 years old and left the hobby at maybe 14.
I originally started with 40k due to the depth and mainly the darkness of the entire universe. I had to leave it behind however due to being unable to keep up with armies created by older players at my local store who had much more buying power and the fact that, as all kids do, my interests evolved and i tried new things.
I have recently come ba to 40k though in my mid 20s and find that my love for the fluff hasnt abated in the slightest although since i last played in 3rd edition its nowhere near the grimdark it once was. Havi spoken to many peopl now my story seems to be a commo one. Many people seem to be being drawn back to the game after a hiatus. I get the impression though that the turnover of new players is much quicker than it once was and the children that leave do so at a much more accelerated rate, pote down to GW pricing.
In the UK at least speaking to people away from the stores I find that 40k and warhammer is very recognisable and people seem to just know what it is even if they have never played a game or even set foot inside a GW the know friends, or older brother mainly, who they remember having a collection.
On top of that the number of books, console and pc games etc linked to the 40k universe has definitely spread a knowledge of the game but the accessibility of these things, especially computer games, puts people off playing on the tabletop when they see the rulebook and codeses. I know a number of people who have played and enjoyed things like dawn of war and space marine and then shown a real interest in the tabletop stuff until they reali theres a load of reading they need to do to learn to play. I actually had someone say "why bother when i only have to buy the game once and i dont need to read all that " when I said he should come down one evening to our 40k night.

Pr3Mu5 wrote:

On top of that the number of books, console and pc games etc linked to the 40k universe has definitely spread a knowledge of the game but the accessibility of these things, especially computer games, puts people off playing on the tabletop when they see the rulebook and codeses. I know a number of people who have played and enjoyed things like dawn of war and space marine and then shown a real interest in the tabletop stuff until they reali theres a load of reading they need to do to learn to play. I actually had someone say "why bother when i only have to buy the game once and i dont need to read all that " when I said he should come down one evening to our 40k night.

Speaking as a gamer, I find it typical of most "casual" gamers (which is about 80% of gamers these days) to eschew other media or dismiss it without a second glance. Even within their own preferred media they're like this; I had to beg someone to just try XCOM Enemy Within because he "hated strategy games". I knew he would like it, and he did. Also rings true cos XCOM is a turn based strategy title.

Yes it seems like trying to appeal to younger gamers through video games with the 40k licence doesn't work very well, however it most certainly kindles interest in the older audience who have more disposable income and who are more... social...

G.A

I've been playing since 2001, and when I started there was like 4 people who played, now it's pretty commonplace for gamers. I'd say over time it has definitely grown and I always try to get new people to play and most love it.

Been in and out of 40K, but the hobby certainly seems to have been shrinking.

My FLGS started up an Escalation league last year that brought together some old vets and new blood (22 total), but I know 10 of the players didn't even finish the league because they got disgusted with the game, and at *least* 6 who have dropped out since finishing the league. The hardcore, players who'd been playing for several editions already remained, but all of the new bloods have moved on to something else and have sold off their 40K armies. Most either migrated to X-Wing, a few went to WarmaHordes and a few are playing Guild Ball.

In my area there is a steady growth in the 40k base in the past year or two. Our events are getting bigger and more frequent and the FLGS manager gets heavy sells on every new release.

 Blacksails wrote:
I think you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that 40k is growing. The financials tend to show that revenue is stagnating, which combined with price increases indicates the player base is roughly the same or shrinking.

This sums it up pretty well. The game might be growing in some specific places but the trend overall is downward.

Losing.
The player base here has shrinked over time. More and more players moved to other games like WMH, bolt action, and X-Wing. We organized local tourneys until the 7th ed came out. Then players became less and less interested. The last two of our monthly apoc games were cancelled. Thats bad news.

It'll vary from place to place. It's growing in Brazil.

I think GW is WINNING because for every 1 person to rage quit, 2 more GW fanboys pop up like roaches.

How else can you explain how GW is even in business. These poor Fanboys are brain washed to buy expensive kits to support their flgs as if it is their burden. Thats alright with me, but they have also been brain washed to support the local GW store.

Some are so brain washed they buy FW.

GW going out of business is a complete lie as long as we have these sacrificial fam boys to throw money at GW to use as toilet paper.

Grief wrote:
I think GW is WINNING because for every 1 person to rage quit, 2 more GW fanboys pop up like roaches.

GW's financial numbers do not support this claim.

How else can you explain how GW is even in business.

The fact that they started with a huge customer base and near-total control of the market, which means it will take them a while to finally die even if they lose revenue and market share every year.

Every year their financials are poor yet they still make profit off of Fan boys.

There fanbase are people who quit for many many years and come back.

For ever new person who finds interest in buying and playing an army did so because an old friend used to play. When this newbie goes and tells his old friend he wants to play wh40k, the guy that quit goes down to gis basement or his attic and blows the dust off his box labeled, "last years cheese army"

Now you have 2 fan boys buying from GW the next day...

I think 40k is losing fans.

Anecdotally speaking, there's less 40k players around my local area now than there has been, though it's probably picked up a bit in the past couple of years it's still well down if you look at an average over several years. Other games are becoming more popular and 40k less so.

Less anecdotally, revenue is stagnant and prices are rising so people are buying less. Of course it could mean that there are the same or more people but they manage to spend less per person, but I actually think the opposite is true. It seems to me that a lot of the remaining 40k fans are big spenders, the sort of super fans who buy enough to account for 3 or 4 "average" fans.

So I actually think (and of course this is just a guess) it's even worse than the financials suggest as far as player base is concerned.

I think more an more veteran or poeple pissed by their pricing and behavor off let it down. What's more, smaller games like Infinity, BA, and lots of others, are little by little gaining ground.

Grief wrote:
Every year their financials are poor yet they still make profit off of Fan boys.

Yes, and they make LESS profit every year. Not going bankrupt is not the same as not losing customers.

For ever new person who finds interest in buying and playing an army did so because an old friend used to play. When this newbie goes and tells his old friend he wants to play wh40k, the guy that quit goes down to gis basement or his attic and blows the dust off his box labeled, "last years cheese army"

Now you have 2 fan boys buying from GW the next day...

Except we know that it doesn't work that way. GW's prices are increasing while revenue is constant or decreasing. This means that sales volume must be decreasing. If I have $100 in revenue selling boxes at $1 each the first year and then $90 in revenue selling boxes at $2 each the next year I must have sold fewer boxes the second year. It's just basic math.

 Peregrine wrote:

 Blacksails wrote:
I think you'd be hard pressed to make an argument that 40k is growing. The financials tend to show that revenue is stagnating, which combined with price increases indicates the player base is roughly the same or shrinking.

This sums it up pretty well. The game might be growing in some specific places but the trend overall is downward.

If we consider this in the realms of people who actually play the tabletop (and SGs) then for sure. But in terms of fans of the franchise I believe it has never been bigger; I would go out on a limb and say most people who quit playing the game probably still hold their interests in the lore (if they had that to begin with) and may even hold onto their collections too, such as myself.

G.A

Most here are going from there local area which is a terrible indicator.

Fact is sales are down by 14% and that alone isn't explained by AoS because before it was even out sales had dropped 5%.

Icv2 numbers show 40k has lost its top spot in north America.

Go anywhere on the net you'll find a poor view of 40k and GW in general.

And GW themselves have said they are a post growth company they can't get new customers.

Number of kits they sell keep shrinking. While part of that is obviously FB hard to claim that's also NOT the case in 40k. So either they are losing fans or existing fans are buying less kits than before...

Gaining more fans, but not on the tabletop. Most of the 40k fans who are new play the rpg's or the video games. Only a small percentage take up the modelling or are introduced that way.

I think the case that the worldwide playerbase is shrinking has been fairly well made with the people already talking about financials.

Locally my anecdotals support that, the playerbase in my area might have stabilized but in the last 2-5 years it declined dramatically.

I know our biggest online retailer down here had said GW products had dropped from 50% of their revenue to only 10-15%, and this is the same retailer who reported Dystopian Wars 2.0 was outselling 7th ed 40k 7 to 1.