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 Nithaniel wrote:
The revenue argument is a good one however it doesn't tell us an accurate picture. GW never publishes its results by breakdown of 40k vs aos vs forgeworld vs BL vs licensing.

Licenses are spread out. Licenses saved their ass. Core profit sunk but license profit increased by same amount more or less. Total war warhammer was good source of income. Rather ironically

I don't know all the facts and figures so can only go with what I see. My local GW (the only one now as the other two shut down!!) hardly ever has anybody in it, Saturdays and Sundays GW's used to be full, lots of kids with the odd adult or begrudging parent. And Bank Holidays were usually insane.
These days it's a sad place, with a single GW employee with the store opened only a few days a week.

It's no secret total war saved their butts this year, licensing is what's propping them up that's why there's so many bad games on the app store.

Deadnight wrote:
Why do you believe the opposite, by the way? Using Google, and Being 'active' on online communities to the extent that you take part in online polls are quite separate things. Bear that in mind.

We both have antecedal evidence. Mine comes from my own experiences and my friends. When playing WoW, I read posts on how to play my class. Professionally, I'm engaged in industry online organizations. Most of my friends are the same way -- even those that are not 'hardcore'.

Deadnight wrote:
Age group is a thing. Definitely. The older you get the less you want to be involved. Two of my best mates are in their fifties. Neither go o. Forums. One is a hardcore Xbox gamer. Great guy. I want to grow old like him. Talk about online gaming, he is all for it. Talk about forums, and no interest whatsoever.

I think part of that is a generation gap. Someone who is 55 did not grow up with the internet. The only online forums for the majority of their life were BBS systems -- which only an extreme minority of people utilized. I am currently 42, and see myself doing exactly what I do today in another 8 years.

Thanks for the discussion, it's good to have differentiating opinions on topics and learn from each other.


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hobojebus wrote:
It's no secret total war saved their butts this year, licensing is what's propping them up that's why there's so many bad games on the app store.

We are also seeing a trend for people to prefer playing online games over physical games. Magic the Gathering's card market has been stable but the online market has been increasing. The fact that the sales have been stable, yet population has been increasing while inflation is occurring means the card market has virtually been shrinking.

While I don't think 40k will completely go away for many years to come, GW will earn more from their IP through online games and sales as time passes.

Locally, our group has been steadily growing for the past three years.

Is there any actual data on this? If not, the thread is pointless. Google trends results are the closest thing, but they're certainly not comprehensive.

 Griddlelol wrote:
Is there any actual data on this? If not, the thread is pointless. Google trends results are the closest thing, but they're certainly not comprehensive.

Financials are a reasonable indicator. If 40k were gaining fans, stands to reason their revenue would increase. What we've seen is stagnant to decreasing revenues (depending on year and length you look at) coupled with increased pricing, which would indicate a shrinking fan base, or a stagnant one at best.

Their licensing for video games has increased, so we might see an influx with non shovel ware games like BFG: Armada and Warhammer Total War. Hard to tell.

 Griddlelol wrote:
Is there any actual data on this? If not, the thread is pointless. Google trends results are the closest thing, but they're certainly not comprehensive.

as noted, we have GW's financials over the years. Adjusted for inflation they peaked about 2004 and have been on something of a slow and consistent slide since then, while also dramatically increasing prices over that same time period. Simple math tells us that if they're charging way more and making less, they're moving less product, which is hard to then portray as anything but a shrinking customer base.

That said, they remain profitable, but largey through nonrepeatable cost cutting measures, so the revenue decline will make itself known at some point. Thats likely the driving factor behind the massive changes to 40k and fantasy of late.

 Vaktathi wrote:

 Griddlelol wrote:
Is there any actual data on this? If not, the thread is pointless. Google trends results are the closest thing, but they're certainly not comprehensive.

as noted, we have GW's financials over the years. Adjusted for inflation they peaked about 2004 and have been on something of a slow and consistent slide since then, while also dramatically increasing prices over that same time period. Simple math tells us that if they're charging way more and making less, they're moving less product, which is hard to then portray as anything but a shrinking customer base.

That said, they remain profitable, but largey through nonrepeatable cost cutting measures, so the revenue decline will make itself known at some point. Thats likely the driving factor behind the massive changes to 40k and fantasy of late.

Older trading reports are weighted heavily towards the massive income GW received from Lord of the rings. This was launched in 2001 by GW and was officially retired to specialist games section supported only by FW in 2015. GW have never differentiated in their annual reports between the sources of revenue so older reports are totally unreliable for assessing 40k performance by sales. I also believe that endtimes made a small bubble in their income stream but by various reports this dropped off massively when AoS was released in 2015. The most accurate guess at 40k performance will be the upcoming results which will exclude Endtimes bubble money and should focus on AoS and 7th edition codex cycling. In their trading update they have announced that sales through all channels remained the same so I take this to mean that 40k is selling the same. In the last two trading years there hasn't been any significant cost increases.

But I think if revenue is stable compared to last tax year then we can assume that 40k is growing while AoS is shrinking. What we do know is that GW has never EVER posted a loss (to my knowledge) even through big cost cutting methods. They are still achieving revenues of over £120m and posting operating profits of over £16m with very healthy dividends per share.

Even if you extrapolate previous decline trends they will be a profitable company for over a decade to come.

No 40k sales are down aswell we know that in north America it's dropped significantly.

Profits have been propped up only by them letting anyone use the IP, royalties could very well be bringing in more money than model sales if they've declined to the same extent they have the last three years i.e. 4-5% annually.

What's more they can't close shops they are locked in to 10 year leases, can't fire more staff, they've cut to the bone and have nothing more to cut.

Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

I'd chalk it up to:

* Digital entertainment
* High cost of entry
* Collectable card games
* Lack of patience

I visit many FLGS'es in the tri-state area in the US when I am on the road for work and I rarely see young kids walking in and snapping up merch like I used to back in the old day. Most of the customers, nearly anytime of day, are older adult men like myself.

I usually only see the young-kids jump in to grab a pack of MTG cards or smaller stuff here or there.

Perhaps the days of running to the FLGS and picking up a few space marines with your hard-earned allowance are past?

I know a lot of posts are talking about crazy GW prices but let's be honest, the entire hobby is expensive. I would know.. I also collect Heavy Gear Blitz and Infinity lol

Duymon wrote:
Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

I'd chalk it up to:

* Digital entertainment
* High cost of entry
* Collectable card games
* Lack of patience

I visit many FLGS'es in the tri-state area in the US when I am on the road for work and I rarely see young kids walking in and snapping up merch like I used to back in the old day. Most of the customers, nearly anytime of day, are older adult men like myself.

I usually only see the young-kids jump in to grab a pack of MTG cards or smaller stuff here or there.

Perhaps the days of running to the FLGS and picking up a few space marines with your hard-earned allowance are past?

I know a lot of posts are talking about crazy GW prices but let's be honest, the entire hobby is expensive. I would know.. I also collect Heavy Gear Blitz and Infinity lol

I'm pretty sure sales across wargaming in general are up, from memory the ICv2 numbers have been consistently growing for years. Though I could believe it's from nerds in their 20's and 30's who now have more money to spend rather than fresh blood.

I don't think wargaming is in decline so much as the model is shifting. Sales are going from FLGS o online retailers, physical products are going to digital enties and the use of entities such as Kickstarter is shifting market share from cyclopean companies to a (diluted) host of independants.

I foesee for much of the future we'll see digital wargames supplant physical tabletop games - the convience of set-up/tear-down, prep work (assembling, collecting, building), model animations, storage concerns and simply arranging a game with someone are far, far easier with digital tabletops and will only get better as time goes on.

And though I love my plastic models, I don't think a shift to digital gaming is a bad thing.

Duymon wrote:


I know a lot of posts are talking about crazy GW prices but let's be honest, the entire hobby is expensive. I would know.. I also collect Heavy Gear Blitz and Infinity lol

Heavy Gear and Infinity models however are still metal, and a typical game will have 6-15 models, 20 in an absolute horde, most around 8-12, not the the multiple dozens a 40k game will.

Duymon wrote:
Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

Then again plenty of other companies are growing sales steadily...Only one declining is GW.

I don't know. There are more people at AdeptiCon every year. I see more HH and 40k tournaments being run and posted.

Seems to be a good time right now, but maybe it's all long time players.

Wargaming is growing you can't blame GWs decline on that.

 Vaktathi wrote:

Duymon wrote:


I know a lot of posts are talking about crazy GW prices but let's be honest, the entire hobby is expensive. I would know.. I also collect Heavy Gear Blitz and Infinity lol

Heavy Gear and Infinity models however are still metal, and a typical game will have 6-15 models, 20 in an absolute horde, most around 8-12, not the the multiple dozens a 40k game will.

Yeah but Infinity is the kinda game where you see a new box released with some cool new models in it, then a new blister is released and again, hey that's a cool model. And before you know it you're waist deep in a new faction so you figure you gotta round out that faction. Pretty soon you've bought into 4 new armies

Declining in my area.

We have non- tabletop fans rising up though.

tneva82 wrote:

Duymon wrote:
Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

Then again plenty of other companies are growing sales steadily...Only one declining is GW.

They're minnows compared to a whale.

Corvus belli, for example makers of infinity have about thirty people working for them. Gw have something like sixteen hundred. most wargames manufacturers are tiny operators with Staff counts in the dozens, if that. Heck, most have to rely on what amounts to charity - essentially volunteer based quality control - to test their games.

Minnows can still grow, survive and even thrive in a shrinking Eco system where the whales are starting to starve. It doesn't necessarily indicate the overall health or 'growth' of that Eco system.

Icv2 has reported double digit growth for several years now consecutively.

Kickstarter has seen a big increase in spending on gaming related projects.

Only GW has shown any signs of stagnation, as can be seen from their financials and this very poll.

Deadnight wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

Duymon wrote:
Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

Then again plenty of other companies are growing sales steadily...Only one declining is GW.

They're minnows compared to a whale.

Corvus belli, for example makers of infinity have about thirty people working for them. Gw have something like sixteen hundred. most wargames manufacturers are tiny operators with Staff counts in the dozens, if that. Heck, most have to rely on what amounts to charity - essentially volunteer based quality control - to test their games.

Minnows can still grow, survive and even thrive in a shrinking Eco system where the whales are starting to starve. It doesn't necessarily indicate the overall health or 'growth' of that Eco system.

And with all that extra staff they still make worse rules and fluff.

Deadnight wrote:

tneva82 wrote:

Duymon wrote:
Honestly, I think the traditional Wargaming hobby in general is in decline.

Then again plenty of other companies are growing sales steadily...Only one declining is GW.

They're minnows compared to a whale.

Corvus belli, for example makers of infinity have about thirty people working for them. Gw have something like sixteen hundred. most wargames manufacturers are tiny operators with Staff counts in the dozens, if that. Heck, most have to rely on what amounts to charity - essentially volunteer based quality control - to test their games.

Minnows can still grow, survive and even thrive in a shrinking Eco system where the whales are starting to starve. It doesn't necessarily indicate the overall health or 'growth' of that Eco system.

I think your analogy is a little off, GW are no longer the giant they used to be. Those other companies have all been growing while GW has been shrinking for the last few years. GW once dominated the top two spots on Icv2's non collectible miniatures game chart, now 40k has fallen to 2nd and WHFB fell off the list entierly a couple of years back.


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hobojebus wrote:
And with all that extra staff they still make worse rules and fluff.

I'd make the (totally subjective) argument they make worse models and art too these days.

 Azreal13 wrote:
Icv2 has reported double digit growth for several years now consecutively.

Kickstarter has seen a big increase in spending on gaming related projects.

Only GW has shown any signs of stagnation, as can be seen from their financials and this very poll.

It's always hard to tell if a fanbase is growing or simply spending more money though.

I'm not saying this is definitely the case, but I could definitely believe based off the local demographic that the wargaming community is an ageing one that is transitioning from mostly school and college aged kids to adults with jobs that have more money to spend.

It does seem like, locally, the wargaming community has grown up with me. I started as a kid and as I've gotten older it seems there's less kids hanging around the local stores and the bias has shifted more to the 20-40yo bracket. Indeed I stopped by a gaming store the other day during peak hour and noticed a significant number of people in the store were the same people I was interacting with 10, 15, 20 years ago. 2 of the guys at the painting table were people who had previously worked at GW stores.

Deadnight wrote:
Gw have something like sixteen hundred.

Is that counting just the employees working on design and manufacturing, or does it include the dead weight of GW's retail chain?

Its hard to guess. I can see stores that are barren and go 'huh nobody plays' but then you gotta think about all the people that have gaming tables set up in their own home and play with friends in the comfort of their living room.

But then again I hardly see any Malifaux/Infinity/warmahordes either. The other week I saw some people playing Mordheim which was interesting. Game stores usually tend to be a mish-mash of random board and card games I find.

Whatever game you play though, the slightest bit of TFG can drive off new players faster than the Flash. I've seen it a few times sadly.

I don't think GW will ever crash and burn (edit: in the immediate future, not literally). If they have to scale back a bit I think we'd be fine with that (if they have some price drops lol). The Start Collecting boxes, battle for vedros and the new AoS easy to assemble kits show that someone working at GW is interested in new players/cheaper entry.

 Don Savik wrote:
I don't think GW will ever crash and burn (edit: in the immediate future, not literally).

True. They will be bought when their price drops to suitable level though. Question is then what will new owners do with the IP.

It's going in waves. There were a lot of people 5 years ago who played 40k here. Than 90% left with 6-th edition. And now there are a lot of new casual players and even some wanabe competitive ones. A bit more than before.

People left in 6 cause they didn't like the rules and prices. They played a few games, found out that they need to completely revamp their armies, checked out the prices, found out there aren't many passable recasts around and just left.

Now there are a lot of decent recasts and people who have played dow, dow2 and stuff - all want to try tabletop out after hearing how massive and epic it is/used to be. They get some stuff second hand, buy recasts and go for it. They like casual games, start buying more stuff, even sometimes get the original product. They get more and more competitive and buy more and more stuff.

Than there are start collecting sets. Still not cheap but affordable even for russian players. Finally, some direct profit to GW as a lot of people got them. And it's a good thing.

So, i'd say it's stable atm. A few more people than there used to be in 5-th.

Thing is buying those recasts does nothing for GW, so people might be playing but they are torrenting the rules and buying models from Russia and China instead of GW.

That's still a loss for GW.

If they dropped their prices they may get that money but right now I really can't blame people for taking the more affordable option.

What I'm really hoping for is this:

Now that Warcraft the movie has come out, there will be a lot more interest in these style of fantasy movies as it will make a bajillionty monies.

What has more lore and possible characters to make spin offs than Warcraft?

Warhammer 40k.

If proper big budget W40K movies come out imagine how much the popularity of the game will skyrocket?