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How do? This thread is brought to you by my pondering whether it's now feasible for a Traitor Legion to be wiped out as a result of the !ong war.

See, even at the very height of the Heresy, when both sides were perfectly capable of knocking seven bells out of each other with weapons long since lost to both sides, no Legion was ever entirely wiped out.

Yes, Ravenguard in particular took a serious kicking - but even they continued on. And not just thanks to the ultimately failed experiments to speed up the transformation from human to post human.

Even the siege of Terra, which lets face it is likely the single greatest battle of the 'modern' age failed to entirely wipe out any given Legion.

So does that therefore mean the Imperium can't now deliver a coup de grace?

Of course, it's not all bad news for The Imperium. As much as they're a shadow of their former selves, much the same can be said of the Traitor Legions. Most have completely fractured and split into Warbands of wildly varying sizes. From memory, only Deathguard and Iron Warriors have anything like Legion cohesion. So the scale of battle seen during the Heresy seems far less likely. The Traitor Legions simply lack the logistics for the most part.

And speaking of logistics, they can't be finding it as easy as they once did to replace losses. Without formerly organised Apothecarions, they're at a disadvantage there, even assuming their geneseed is corrupted beyond use. Sure, they're likely less fussy that The Imperium when it comes to human stock, and they can certainly steal geneseed from Chapters. But even then, that's a risk. They need to not only successfully engage a loyalist Chapter, but win the engagement without losing more than they can gain (so assuming two Progenoids and all recoverable, they need better than a 2:1 kill ratio).

Now we don't currently know if Storm of Iron is canon. If it is, and I'll assume so for now, that's a real problem. Not only was a lot of geneseed stolem, but it would be Grade A gene seed, gathered and stored over a long arse period. Arguably gathered and stored since at least the Scouring, and quite possibly before (its canonically established that Terra has, and has always had stores of Legion Geneseed)

Yet in theory, that only really, for certain, aids the Iron Warriors. I can quite imagine them commanding a hefty price for such a precious resource, which makes one wonder just how many of their Frenemy Legions and Warbands can actually pay that price...

Then we have to consider tissue rejection. In a perfectly hale and hearty recruit, the Loyalist Chapters still have trouble with their success rate. Now, as I aluded to above, the Loyalist preference for intense screening is by no means a necessity. It could simply be that given Codex restrictions, they only want the best of the best of the best to replenish their ranks. That could also be a vanity adopted to assuage that Heresy can never take root (oh, if only they knew! And they probably don't!).

So Traitor Legions aren't necessarily hurting for Gene seed, nor recruits. But one has to wonder about their overall success rate. Whilst I'm pretty sure they'll find a use for even the worst genetic monstrosity created by a failed implantation, that still doesn't help them maintain their numbers over time, as it seems most likely the gene seed is lost when that happens, even should such an abomination survive long enough for the progenoid glands to mature...

Of course, it's not all Astartes. They may be the greatest warriors ever (seriously, any Marine of any stripe who can fight his own kind and win for centuries is officially mentalnutsodoublehard. They've got lots and lots of disposable Cultists, which can be anything from grist for the mills (literally) to valued, highly experienced Infiltrators and saboteurs that can go where an Astartes simply can't. Trouble is, those guys are all pretty squishy.

Daemons....well, if you've got a pet Sorceror that you're fairly sure isn't going to kill you for the next five minutes, you can get Daemons on side. Upside? You've now got Daemons. Downside? Have you really got Daemons, or have the Daemons got you?. If all goes well, you've got near infinite troops under the right conditions, which as a happy bonus tend to drive your foe insane just by being there. Trick of course is making sure all goes well...

With those thoughts in mind (and they're just thoughts, not facts. Feel free to correct me if assumptions are contradicted by background ), replacing losses is a bit of a mixed bag for the bad guys.

Next, let's consider the logistic side of things.

Here, The Imperium has a distinct and pronounced advantage. It's sheer size helps (plenty of fall back points when needed), and the Astra Militarum has billions, if not trillions of men and women under arms. And that's not just 'oi, spod, grab this gun', but actual, trained soldiers. It's shown time and again in the background that the humble Guardsman or Guardswoman is perfectly capable of tackling Chaos Cultists, many of whom will lack even the most basic of military training.

And The Imperium is perfectly capable of arming and equipping those forces. You may recall my thread in praise of the humble Lasgun. That's the standard armament across the Imperium, and frankly it's a genuine miracle weapon. Certainly superior from a logistics point of view to more primitive solid slug auto weapons.

Then you've got the Tanks, and the Artillery. Not only are these produced in frankly staggering numbers, they're also incredibly reliable. After all, they have to be. Easy to make, easy to maintain, easy to crew. And man do they make a mess. Unless you've got a suitably sized contingent of Traitor Astartes (any era, any vintage) to do what Astartes do and cut the head off enemy command, that's a battle of attrition Chaos may struggle with.

In essence, one can bog down a Regiment - but ain't nobody, nobody can bring the entire institution to a grinding halt.

And all those losses, flesh, Astartes, ammo, tanks, materiel need to be replaced....if you can't steal it, that involves dealing with the Dark Mechanicus. Always a thorny issue (also, Dark Mechanicus needs a cooler name)

Now, if your Warband is on a winning streak, and you've been picking the right targets, that's not such a disadvantage. Given the sheer scale of The Imperium, you go pretty much wherever you want, and with relative ease. It's only when attacking a built up system the real risks kick in (just a shame such risks are so huge).

But, if your foe (any foe!) bloodies your nose just once? Well, they'll bounce back before you do. They've got the sheer logistics of the entire Imperium on hand (clunky as that is), but also time is very much in their favour. Even Chapters of Marines can come back from the very brink, given time. Chaos, to a much lesser degree. Not only will you have a vengeful Imperium on your case to elude first, but your Frenemies may seek to exploit your current weakened state - such is the nature of Chaos.

Right, typing for a while so going to take a break. There's more to come, but this should be enough to fire up your little grey cells. Chip in, cite background and novels. Correct bad assumptions. Weigh in!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
And back from the break!

Chaos does have various advantages of course. The sheer oppression of The Imperium (even if, contextually, it's for their own good) breeds dissent. And that's fertile ground for the right type of corruption.

A Sorceror or demagogue in the right place can cause all sorts of havoc. Played right, a planet or system can be weakened before your main attack.

Even just rabble rousing can bleed away enemy forces from the true target of your attack. That's something the Imperium can't easily counter.

And such things sound a lot easier since The Great Rift opened, no?

Ok, done for now!

That's why it's called the Long War. However actually I do generally agree with you.

The CSM are all fragmented and often are more about pursuing their own goals or path to Daemonhood rather than actually overthrowing the Imperium or doing anything afterwards. The raids and attacks they do are really ultimately more about lashing out and venting their frustration or about moving along the path to Daemonhood rather than part of any real long term strategy or campaign. They may justify this as fighting a war of hit and run or a guerilla war (i.e. the Long War) by wearing away at the foundations of the Imperium gradually, but I think that is partially a form of self deception. The limited logistical base of many warbands will mean a limited tempo of operations and the Imperium may bounce back from any damage they inflict faster than they can inflict it.

I wrote this about the Alpha Legion in the past but I think the theme can be applied to the other Legions too:

If you look at Alpha Legion background in the 2nd edition Chaos Codex, it describes how they started waging their own campaign and setting their own military objectives without real reference to what others were doing.

Their "degeneration" may take a different form. They may very well still think they are fighting for a goal, but they may be deceiving themselves. They may set military objectives as if they were still fighting some organized campaign, but the real objective may simply be to cause random mayhem. They may have lost their true purpose without knowing it.

For example, they may justify raiding and blowing up Imperial supply depots or capturing interstellar transports as disrupting the Imperium's supply lines, but their true effect on the overall logistical situation may be minor, insignificant or irrelevant (if for example the sector has surplus capacity or is not actively engaged in war). In reality, it may just be piracy under a different name, even if they don't themselves believe it to be such.

Even those in the Alpha Legion that believe themselves loyalists in the long run may succumb to this erosion of purpose. Their attacks might be justified as "serving the long term interests of humanity and the Emperor", even though it really just amounts to smash and grab raiding.

With their decentralized structure, it may also be a situation of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing. Instead of any coherent plan, they might just be individual units acting like any other warband, though in this case they might still be convinced they are serving some higher purpose.

Even when warbands set up outposts or carve out empires of their own, it is more about really feathering their own nests.

The thing is though, the combined corrosive effect of their raids does weaken the Imperium because the Imperium is beset by so many other threats. However that is the combined effect rather than any coherent grand strategy.

The crazy thing to me is that if the Legions could be wielded as a single whole, they could smash aside anything the Imperium could hope to gather in the time it takes them to attack Terra.

And when even Horus couldn't manage that, is Abaddon just deluding himself?

Well, perhaps. But only in the short term.

Prior to End Times, it was an unequivocal 'yes' for me that Chaos would always, ultimately, be the losing side. They're just too disparate.

But The Great Rift has challenged that assertion, simply because The Warp now has far greater influence over realspace. That in turn means Daemons have an easier time of things, as do Daemon Princes.

And it's the Daemon Princes that win The Long War. Yes, you can banish their corporeal form and delay them for a while.

Right now, their number is quite small. After all, only a handful of aspirants make it anywhere near that far.

But....a long Long War? That's only going to add to their number. And with each new atrocity, the chances of the rift widening yet further increase. And the more that happens, the more they can lead with their Daemon Legions.

The Imperium isn't about to roll over and die of course, but barring another End Times style upset and reversal of fortunes, it's days are numbered. It might be hundreds, thousands or tens of thousands of years, but, for now, it seems certain to fall.

Guilliman alone simply isn't enough. He can't be everywhere at once. And let's face it, he of such import to morale, it would only take the mere rumour that such a figurehead has fallen could shatter a system.

Now other Imperial Primarch could well return. And that might tip the balance. But only might.

My take on it is that in order for The Imperium to contain things, they need to start dealing with the Traitor Astartes. Take them out of the equation, even just by seriously thinning their numbers, and you're in with a chance.

Because that done, Chaos has a reduced capacity to Alpha Strike against the true backbone of the Imperium, the Astra Militarum. Doesn't have to be a total wipe out, just enough damage done to reduce their numbers to an irreplaceable degree.

For now, Abaddon just needs to exert some sort of control. Unlike Horus, he's had millennia to understand the forces now at his control. Whilst Horus couldn't control Angron, Abaddon has the experience to know not to try - but instead how to ensure such berserk rampages can be turned to his advantage as a distraction.

How long he'd need to keep that up, who knows!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Hmmm.

Further thought.

The Great Rift.... that's, that's kind of put paid to the 'don't talk about Chaos. If we ignore it, it'll go away'* shtick the Imperium has relied on for a long old while, no?

Wonder how that's affected Cult activity? Not just Chaos, but Imperial as well.

If the veil is lifted, the great lie of Chaos is more exposed. On one hand, harder to deny it exists. On the other, harder for Chaos to appear without downsides? Do the two balance out?

I think its important to remember that time doesn't pass the same in the warp as it does in the rest of the galaxy.

For some Chaos Marines, they've been fighting a long war, but its only been perhaps a few hundred years. Every year or so they might head out, raid a few planets, and then come back.

Which is both a problem and a boon for the Imperium. Once in five hundred years, a bunch of armored madmen appear out of space, blitz one of your population centers, and then disappear with their slaves and loot back where they came.

The problem is that its really hard to defend against that. If the raiders can get out of the Eye of Terror (the hard part), they can appear most anywhere. And you can't really follow them into the Eye either.

On the other hand, its also a boon, because due to its rareity you can make everyone forget about it. Which is the Imperium's modus operandi when it comes to chaos. Ignore it and maybe it'll go away.

I don't think Chaos could ever truly beat the Imperium. There's just too much of it. And the Chaos Gods probably don't even want to. They just want to knock off the Emperor, so that everything falls into anarchy. That's what they really want the universe to be like.

The Chaos gods are however, shortsighted and limited by their nature. They should realize that without the Imperium, the Nids will just eat everything and then the Warp will go quiet as the galaxy is left empty of anything but Necrons. But they won't, because its against their nature. They're not truly free sentient beings, they're amagymations of warp energy.

I think it's inevitable that Chaos will win in the long run, simply by entropy.

The Imperium is decaying, and of course it's still a massive behemoth beyond understanding, but for all its resources it's constantly besieged, and now with the Rift chaos could strike pretty much anywhere (see for instance the many plagues and chaos infestations which started after the Rift opened). In fact it doesn't take much to completely feth up entire planets or systems when they are lightly defended, or defensive resources are employed badly. There are examples in the Death Guard codex of single sorcerers managing to completely screw imperial planets by themselves just by exploiting certain weaknesses. That means that all the resources of the Imperium must be used to defend and garrison and protect both from external AND INTERNAL attack pretty much everywhere. It's basically like North Korea.

There's also another thing to consider: the Imperium has a terrible weakness, in the sense that its functioning and survival depends on the Emperor serving as beacon for the Astronomicon. Were someone able to capture Terra and kill the Emperor the Imperium would fall shortly after. What I feel would happen now realistically is that the Imperium will continue to decay and wane in power, until we reach a point, thousands of years in the future, where it'll be so weakened that it'll be vulnerable to a direct strike to Terra, either by xeno races (which gained strength as the Imperium retreated) or chaos. Then of course it's 40k so the Emperor will likely be reborn as a god of order or something like that.

One last thing: in terms of logistics and replenishing their numbers, it's stated in the Death Guard codex that they have way more Astartes now than they had during the Crusade and the Horus Heresy, and that's due to the Death Guard being used to replenishing horrid losses with an intensive recruitment policy prior to the Heresy. After the Heresy, they retreated on their Plague Planet in the Eye of Terror and pretty much became isolationist, so they weren't sustaining heavy losses as before... but they kept their intensive recruitment up, so they grew in numbers.




Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:

My take on it is that in order for The Imperium to contain things, they need to start dealing with the Traitor Astartes. Take them out of the equation, even just by seriously thinning their numbers, and you're in with a chance.

But how? Is it actually feasible? That would imply sending a HUGE force into the Rift, and most of them would be tainted, corrupted, possessed, mutated or simply slain by Demons.

The Imperium already tried to crusade in the Eye of Terror in the past, it didn't end well for the Imperium. In fact most of the Astartes which were sent inside either became heretic / renegades (actually boosting Chaos) or were killed. The chaos space marines have become used to waging guerrilla wars in the Eye of Terror, the many many warbands would just flee and hide and hit and run until the Imperium forces are depleted. It's like invading Afghanistan or Vietnam in a way.

I guess it could be feasible if they lured them in a huge trap on Terra... and hope that Abaddon gathered most of the traitor Astartes. And then kill them all.

Trick with taking out Terra, is taking out Terra.

During the Heresy, they more or less had surprise on their side, and for the most part had Mars on side too. And they still ultimately failed (albeit through an odd decision made by Horus).

As it stands now, no single Legion has the numbers to take Terra. And the forces of Chaos still remain far to disparate and divided to be brought together long enough to get that job done.

There's also the price of failure. Terra has had 10,000 years to date to get itself ship shape and Bristol fashion, ready for the seemingly inevitable. That's an inevitably high butchers bill. Attack before you're genuinely ready, and if you're repulsed? Well, it's curtains. Whoever lead the folly will be dead before the day is out (Gods, Champions, Underlings, all fed up with them), and the casualties suffered will be high enough to possibly break you forever. And all the time, reinforcements will be closing in on you....

I don't think Terra is in any immediate danger

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Trick with taking out Terra, is taking out Terra.

During the Heresy, they more or less had surprise on their side, and for the most part had Mars on side too. And they still ultimately failed (albeit through an odd decision made by Horus).

As it stands now, no single Legion has the numbers to take Terra. And the forces of Chaos still remain far to disparate and divided to be brought together long enough to get that job done.

There's also the price of failure. Terra has had 10,000 years to date to get itself ship shape and Bristol fashion, ready for the seemingly inevitable. That's an inevitably high butchers bill. Attack before you're genuinely ready, and if you're repulsed? Well, it's curtains. Whoever lead the folly will be dead before the day is out (Gods, Champions, Underlings, all fed up with them), and the casualties suffered will be high enough to possibly break you forever. And all the time, reinforcements will be closing in on you....

I don't think Terra is in any immediate danger

That's probably a likely reason behind Abby's attempts to create the red path. That butchers bill can be high, but if a sizeable majority of it comes from beings that can't truly be killed and can be brought back from death by the mere act of following through with the war. It lays a foundation for a self propagating army, Kill more to summon more and the cycle continues. the final piece will probably fall on Abbaddon not making the same mistakes as Horus as the war reaches it's highest point.

Supposedly Cawl and the Necrons seem to be angling towards creating more pylons like the Cadian pylons, presumably to push back or even close rifts. I suspect this might be GW's way of balancing out Chaos by offering a glimmer of hope. We also have yet to find out more about what the Ynnari are up to.

Tristanleo wrote:

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Trick with taking out Terra, is taking out Terra.

During the Heresy, they more or less had surprise on their side, and for the most part had Mars on side too. And they still ultimately failed (albeit through an odd decision made by Horus).

As it stands now, no single Legion has the numbers to take Terra. And the forces of Chaos still remain far to disparate and divided to be brought together long enough to get that job done.

There's also the price of failure. Terra has had 10,000 years to date to get itself ship shape and Bristol fashion, ready for the seemingly inevitable. That's an inevitably high butchers bill. Attack before you're genuinely ready, and if you're repulsed? Well, it's curtains. Whoever lead the folly will be dead before the day is out (Gods, Champions, Underlings, all fed up with them), and the casualties suffered will be high enough to possibly break you forever. And all the time, reinforcements will be closing in on you....

I don't think Terra is in any immediate danger

That's probably a likely reason behind Abby's attempts to create the red path. That butchers bill can be high, but if a sizeable majority of it comes from beings that can't truly be killed and can be brought back from death by the mere act of following through with the war. It lays a foundation for a self propagating army, Kill more to summon more and the cycle continues. the final piece will probably fall on Abbaddon not making the same mistakes as Horus as the war reaches it's highest point.

Fair points. But then there's also the importance and the ego of Abaddon.

Do we really believe he'd allow anyone else to strike down The Emperor? I don't. I think that's a job he'd save for himself and himself alone. An act of ultimately petty vengeance 10,000 years in the making.

And that involves Abaddon sticking his head in the noose for too long a period. Just as The Imperium needs The Emperor, Chaos needs Abaddon, simply because he's the only capable, and possibly interested, in pulling the forces together. If Abaddon falls (and he remains very much mortal. Incredibly hard, but Mortal all the same. If it's him and Guilliman, I know who's walking away from that fight), Chaos is stuffed. The leader of the cult, the provider of impetus would be gone - and there's seemingly no natural successor in sight (not that that prevents GW creating one, natch). It all fragments again, possibly for good this time.

Sure, that gives The Imperium a whole new headache, as the chaos forces go on the rampage. But with a slim likelihood of them ever regrouping into a single crusade, much of the overarching threat is gone.

In the space marines omnibus there is an interesting conflict between Night Lords, where some members of a warband have lost faith in the philosophy of the Long War, and are now only interested in raging Eternal War.

I think as Abaddon pushes the issue further and further many chaos marines will have a similar epiphany; they are no longer interested in overthrowing The Emperor and liberating the Imperium; they take all their meaning from insurgency and chaos, so to 'win' the long war would not align to their goals ten thousand years since the civil war started.

As the Long War drags on, there will be fewer and fewer veterans that remember the Heresy as attrition takes its eventual toll. There will be more and more that might give up on the Long War's ideals of vengeance for perceived past wrongs, and just settle for satisfying their own desires and goals. Any newly recruited CSM even if subjected to indoctrination won't have the original fire or desire for vengeance that veterans of the Great Crusade would have. Those times would exist as history/myth/story rather than actual memories of past lived experiences.

Of course, GW being GW, the Legions will never run out of veterans of the Long War.

That's a very interesting point you've raised, and not one that I've ever really pondered.

How many of the Traitor Legion Astartes, those that were actually there, still give much a fig? How far gone are they these days?

Bear in mind that it's all about cult of personality, aka who leads the warbands. I'd imagine that most warbands are led by veterans of the Heresy. If the Lords go for certain objectives, the troops will follow, even if they are made of new Astartes.

This of course doesn't take into account Abaddon, whose power, charisma and reputation are big enough to gather the Heretic Astartes. And then of course there's the Primarchs, who have the same power: to muster their legion and unleash them on specific objectives. I don't know what their agenda is but I'm pretty sure it involves paying a visit to their daddy.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
That's a very interesting point you've raised, and not one that I've ever really pondered.

How many of the Traitor Legion Astartes, those that were actually there, still give much a fig? How far gone are they these days?

It's hard to say. I think it depends very much on the legion. We saw in the Night Lords books how for some of these ships, it really has just been a handful of years. To such soldiers, Abbadon is still First Captain of the Luna Wolves, not the overly grandiose 'Despoiler'. To others, say the Warsmith Honsou from the Ultramarines books, they don't even remember the war and are busily creating new astartes with no real concern for it.

I suspect the answer is that the more full of new blood a Legion, the more they're just raiders who are attacking the Imperium because that's what the Head Raider says/to get more loot. The more they're comprised of veterans and carefully indoctrinated new blood, the more they'll give a damn about actually beating the Emperor.