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Made in us
Tough Tyrant Guard





Texas

I had some spare time on my hands. I search for tables but couldn't find anything, so... I made a thing.
Using mostly this website, and a little manual math.
http://anydice.com/


Mathhammer tables for Charge ranges.
Orange is a base 2d6 with no rerolls
Blue is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 9". Basically charge from Deepstrike and using an ability that grants a reroll of charges.
Yellow is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 8". Basically charge from Deepstrike, but you get a +1 to move or charges (adrenal glands on Tyranids for example).
Green is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 7". I just chose 7 because that is the most probable number on 2d6.
Purple is rerolling 1's on a single die.

Now the hardest one to figure was the Red. Roll 2d6, rerolling the single lowest die. Basically using a command point. The White table at the bottom is the data on this.

TL;DR Here are the Mathhammer results on Charging Tables.




https://i.imgur.com/v8BPhi7.png

10000+
5600+
8500+
1500+
1250+
2000+ IK

Dwarfs: 4000
Empire: 4000
Bretonian: 3500
Goblins: 500

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x3, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap), Scatwick2 (swap)

*I'm on Bartertown as Dynas 
   
Made in us
Ultramarine Chaplain with Hate to Spare





Upstate, New York

Are you sure of your numbers? Seeing the red ones with over a 100% chance makes me doubt the whole thing. But it looks like a nice table and it’s always nice to see the odds layed out like this.

Ultramarines, 3rd Co. and friends, 12.5K+ Slowly growing 2Kish
Nevelon's Workbench: Ultramarines, Saim-Hann and other assorted oddities
 
   
Made in ca
Tough Tyrant Guard





Texas

It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in

10000+
5600+
8500+
1500+
1250+
2000+ IK

Dwarfs: 4000
Empire: 4000
Bretonian: 3500
Goblins: 500

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x3, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap), Scatwick2 (swap)

*I'm on Bartertown as Dynas 
   
Made in gb
Gargantuan Gargant





Nice work! I've been looking for something like this. Very handy to help estimate the success of charging Deep Striking assault units.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/11/11 14:30:21


Disclaimer: My YMDC answers are from a "What the rules, as written in the rulebook, actually say" perspective, not a "What I wish the rules said" perspective.
Because some people get their knickers in a twist, I'll list these RaW 'oddities' in my sig. Sadly GW's promise of fixing their broken rules has itself been broken. RaW you cannot advance and then fire assault weapons, you can't shoot pistols if within 1" of an enemy; "minimum" ranges don't work; Seraphim have to re-roll saves that "fail" pre-re-roll; the game simply breaks if you ever have more than one wounded model in a unit; the game also breaks if a single rule ever tries to do multiple things simultaneously; Khârn punches himself in the face if he's not near some meatshields; Librarians on Bikes are locked to the Index power list, Howling Banshees can't declare a charge further than 12"; Spore Mines have an infinite range; Shroudpsalm technically doesn't do anything, only enemy models, not friendly models, have permission to move on top of a Skyshield Landing Pad; T'au have access to stackable Ignore Wounds (albeit against Mortal Wounds only); the T'au Early Warning Override Support System only works if a unit is "teleporting to the battlefield", not just arriving mid-battle; you can only ever use the Deathwatch Teleportarium Stratagem "once", and then never again in any battle after you use it; if a model splits fire, each weapon must target a different unit; a Tyrant Guard with Lashwhip can absorb an infinite amount of damage via Shieldwall between the time they die and the time they fight; Chapter Tactics on Successor Chapters don't actually do anything; Codex Leman Russ's can take an infinite amount of Hunter-Killer Missiles, Storm Bolters and Heavy Stubbers; Imothekh's 'Lord of the Storm' ability hits the "target unit" twice; "Airborne" units can't be charged by non-FLY units, but can be Heroically Intervened into, piled into, or consolidated into just fine by non-FLY units; Wave Serpents cannot be legally charged at by any model with a standard base; and Slab Shields, along with the 'Take Cover!' stratagem no longer have any effect.
--- Mathhammer tables for 2D6 and 3D6 Charging with various re-roll abilities --- Stylus CSS theme for DakkaDakka forums to hide black avatar background and fully hide ignored users. --- 
   
Made in us
Tough Tyrant Guard





Texas

Yeah, thats what i made it for. I was trying to figure that out. Too bad DS isnt at the beginning of the movement phase, but that would be way overpowered.

10000+
5600+
8500+
1500+
1250+
2000+ IK

Dwarfs: 4000
Empire: 4000
Bretonian: 3500
Goblins: 500

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x3, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap), Scatwick2 (swap)

*I'm on Bartertown as Dynas 
   
Made in nl
Longtime Dakkanaut




I really don't get these tables.

I am an Ork player, and Orks can reroll failed charge rolls. So, if my boys need to make a 10" charge, what are my chances? And what are my chances, if I am willing to blow a CP on rerolling only a single die?
   
Made in dk
Deadly Dire Avenger





 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in



I think the problem is that the white table is using the wrong numbers for re rolling above the coloured line. The odds of rolling a 2 on the reroll shouldn't be higher then odds rolling a 1. It's also worth noting that the the math assumes you always reroll the lowest even in the case of a double 6. I think you'd be better of using 3d6 removing the lowest. (
   
Made in gb
Gargantuan Gargant





Any chance of an update/second spreadsheet to include 3D6 chances?

Or if you don't have time to do that, uploading the actual spreadsheet so I can work on adding them? Just don't feel like re-duplicating it all if I don't have to, especially since I can't quite figure out how the command point odds are calculated.

Also the adrenal gland column is either mislabeled or wrong. The % values are for 2d6+1 under 8, but the values are for just 2d6. I think the % need to be for either 2D6 under 8 or 2D6+1 under 9

This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2017/12/08 11:19:26


Disclaimer: My YMDC answers are from a "What the rules, as written in the rulebook, actually say" perspective, not a "What I wish the rules said" perspective.
Because some people get their knickers in a twist, I'll list these RaW 'oddities' in my sig. Sadly GW's promise of fixing their broken rules has itself been broken. RaW you cannot advance and then fire assault weapons, you can't shoot pistols if within 1" of an enemy; "minimum" ranges don't work; Seraphim have to re-roll saves that "fail" pre-re-roll; the game simply breaks if you ever have more than one wounded model in a unit; the game also breaks if a single rule ever tries to do multiple things simultaneously; Khârn punches himself in the face if he's not near some meatshields; Librarians on Bikes are locked to the Index power list, Howling Banshees can't declare a charge further than 12"; Spore Mines have an infinite range; Shroudpsalm technically doesn't do anything, only enemy models, not friendly models, have permission to move on top of a Skyshield Landing Pad; T'au have access to stackable Ignore Wounds (albeit against Mortal Wounds only); the T'au Early Warning Override Support System only works if a unit is "teleporting to the battlefield", not just arriving mid-battle; you can only ever use the Deathwatch Teleportarium Stratagem "once", and then never again in any battle after you use it; if a model splits fire, each weapon must target a different unit; a Tyrant Guard with Lashwhip can absorb an infinite amount of damage via Shieldwall between the time they die and the time they fight; Chapter Tactics on Successor Chapters don't actually do anything; Codex Leman Russ's can take an infinite amount of Hunter-Killer Missiles, Storm Bolters and Heavy Stubbers; Imothekh's 'Lord of the Storm' ability hits the "target unit" twice; "Airborne" units can't be charged by non-FLY units, but can be Heroically Intervened into, piled into, or consolidated into just fine by non-FLY units; Wave Serpents cannot be legally charged at by any model with a standard base; and Slab Shields, along with the 'Take Cover!' stratagem no longer have any effect.
--- Mathhammer tables for 2D6 and 3D6 Charging with various re-roll abilities --- Stylus CSS theme for DakkaDakka forums to hide black avatar background and fully hide ignored users. --- 
   
Made in gb
Gargantuan Gargant





I have updated the tables to fix errors and to add 3D6 probabilities.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1zubMHGDlXKEsvoJ56nBz6-NusPbKwp6dJzpJBkrfc/edit?usp=sharing

Image versions of each table:
Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/12/09 15:16:30


Disclaimer: My YMDC answers are from a "What the rules, as written in the rulebook, actually say" perspective, not a "What I wish the rules said" perspective.
Because some people get their knickers in a twist, I'll list these RaW 'oddities' in my sig. Sadly GW's promise of fixing their broken rules has itself been broken. RaW you cannot advance and then fire assault weapons, you can't shoot pistols if within 1" of an enemy; "minimum" ranges don't work; Seraphim have to re-roll saves that "fail" pre-re-roll; the game simply breaks if you ever have more than one wounded model in a unit; the game also breaks if a single rule ever tries to do multiple things simultaneously; Khârn punches himself in the face if he's not near some meatshields; Librarians on Bikes are locked to the Index power list, Howling Banshees can't declare a charge further than 12"; Spore Mines have an infinite range; Shroudpsalm technically doesn't do anything, only enemy models, not friendly models, have permission to move on top of a Skyshield Landing Pad; T'au have access to stackable Ignore Wounds (albeit against Mortal Wounds only); the T'au Early Warning Override Support System only works if a unit is "teleporting to the battlefield", not just arriving mid-battle; you can only ever use the Deathwatch Teleportarium Stratagem "once", and then never again in any battle after you use it; if a model splits fire, each weapon must target a different unit; a Tyrant Guard with Lashwhip can absorb an infinite amount of damage via Shieldwall between the time they die and the time they fight; Chapter Tactics on Successor Chapters don't actually do anything; Codex Leman Russ's can take an infinite amount of Hunter-Killer Missiles, Storm Bolters and Heavy Stubbers; Imothekh's 'Lord of the Storm' ability hits the "target unit" twice; "Airborne" units can't be charged by non-FLY units, but can be Heroically Intervened into, piled into, or consolidated into just fine by non-FLY units; Wave Serpents cannot be legally charged at by any model with a standard base; and Slab Shields, along with the 'Take Cover!' stratagem no longer have any effect.
--- Mathhammer tables for 2D6 and 3D6 Charging with various re-roll abilities --- Stylus CSS theme for DakkaDakka forums to hide black avatar background and fully hide ignored users. --- 
   
Made in us
Unhealthy Competition With Other Legions




Lost Carcosa

 BaconCatBug wrote:
I have updated the tables to fix errors and to add 3D6 probabilities.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1zubMHGDlXKEsvoJ56nBz6-NusPbKwp6dJzpJBkrfc/edit?usp=sharing

Image versions of each table:
Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:


Good stuff. Thank you for the work put in and sharing.

Standing in the light, I see only darkness.  
   
Made in us
[DCM]
Perfected Haemonculi Living Sculpture






 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in


Well, not if you roll another 1 right?

   
Made in gb
Gargantuan Gargant





 Red Corsair wrote:
 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in


Well, not if you roll another 1 right?
Yeah, that was a mistake I fixed in my tables.

Think about it, if you roll a 2 and a 2, reroll a 2 and get a 1. That's not a 100% chance of 4+

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/12/11 04:19:28


Disclaimer: My YMDC answers are from a "What the rules, as written in the rulebook, actually say" perspective, not a "What I wish the rules said" perspective.
Because some people get their knickers in a twist, I'll list these RaW 'oddities' in my sig. Sadly GW's promise of fixing their broken rules has itself been broken. RaW you cannot advance and then fire assault weapons, you can't shoot pistols if within 1" of an enemy; "minimum" ranges don't work; Seraphim have to re-roll saves that "fail" pre-re-roll; the game simply breaks if you ever have more than one wounded model in a unit; the game also breaks if a single rule ever tries to do multiple things simultaneously; Khârn punches himself in the face if he's not near some meatshields; Librarians on Bikes are locked to the Index power list, Howling Banshees can't declare a charge further than 12"; Spore Mines have an infinite range; Shroudpsalm technically doesn't do anything, only enemy models, not friendly models, have permission to move on top of a Skyshield Landing Pad; T'au have access to stackable Ignore Wounds (albeit against Mortal Wounds only); the T'au Early Warning Override Support System only works if a unit is "teleporting to the battlefield", not just arriving mid-battle; you can only ever use the Deathwatch Teleportarium Stratagem "once", and then never again in any battle after you use it; if a model splits fire, each weapon must target a different unit; a Tyrant Guard with Lashwhip can absorb an infinite amount of damage via Shieldwall between the time they die and the time they fight; Chapter Tactics on Successor Chapters don't actually do anything; Codex Leman Russ's can take an infinite amount of Hunter-Killer Missiles, Storm Bolters and Heavy Stubbers; Imothekh's 'Lord of the Storm' ability hits the "target unit" twice; "Airborne" units can't be charged by non-FLY units, but can be Heroically Intervened into, piled into, or consolidated into just fine by non-FLY units; Wave Serpents cannot be legally charged at by any model with a standard base; and Slab Shields, along with the 'Take Cover!' stratagem no longer have any effect.
--- Mathhammer tables for 2D6 and 3D6 Charging with various re-roll abilities --- Stylus CSS theme for DakkaDakka forums to hide black avatar background and fully hide ignored users. --- 
   
Made in us
Glorious Grot Banna Wava




Another important number to remember is 57%. That is the total compound probability of making a 9" charge with the option to either reroll both dice (which you do if neither of the dice you rolled are 4, 5, or 6) and the option to reroll one die (if one of your dice is a 4, 5, 6).

The image is a little strange and contains my own figuring, but basically the way the number is calculated using the following formula

Compound odds of two random events = 1 - (inverse odds of first event * inverse odds of second event)

There are 10 results on 2 dice that get you a 9+, so your base odds are 10/36=~28%.

The remaining 26 states can then be weighted.

4/26 contain at least one six result. If you reroll the die that is not a 6, you have a 66% chance of getting your 9+. .66*(4/26) = .102

6/26 contain at least one five. If you reroll the die that isn't a five, you have a 50% chance of getting your 9+. .5*(6/26) = .115

7/26 contain at least one four. If you reroll the die that isn't a four, you have a 33% chance of getting your 9+. .33*(7/26) = .090

The remaining 9/26 you reroll both dice for the same 28% chance of your first roll. .28*(9/26) = .097

Add all those weighted probabilities together and that second roll, with the option of a reroll, is .404 or a hair over 40%. To get the total probability, we do our inverse formula from before.

1-((1-.28)*(1-.404)) = .571.

And, if you're curious what the odds are with just a single-die reroll, remove the double dice reroll section of the compound odds (the .28*(9/26)) because you don't get those if you can't reroll both dice. That number is almost exactly 50%. And, if you just want to take the double dice reroll and you don't want to try rerolling a single die, your odds are .482.

You'll notice how close these numbers actually are. If you want to bring in an alpha strike, and you're worried about how many units are going to get in, keep in mind that the units you'll be dropping in without the support of the one-die reroll are only 9% less likely to get in than the ones you do. And if you're sending in multiples of the same unit, it is very much in your interest to wait and fish for a failure result that includes a 5 or a 6 to use your single-die reroll on.

Of course, all of this pales in comparison to the current reigning champs of getting charges out of deep strikes, Genestealer Cult units using the new Meticulous Ambush strat with a Primus. That gives them SIX chances to get their favorable results of five and six. The odds of getting a six combined are .66 and their odds of either a five or a six are .89. And that's why Meticulous Ambush is probably the single best use of cp coming out of Chapter Approved, if not among the best in the game!
[Thumb - screen_shot_2017-12-01_at_12.58.02_pm.png]

   
Made in us
Tough Tyrant Guard





Texas

So sorry, this thread got buried, had to dig it up.
This is what I used on the reroll 1's

Automatically Appended Next Post:
@baconCat - do you still want the file.

% on one Dice 1d6 ------> 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667
Highest of 2d6V 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.027777778 1 0.004630556 0.013891667 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.083333333 2 0.013891667 0.013891667 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.138888889 3 0.023152778 0.023152778 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.194444444 4 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.25 5 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.050936111
0.305555556 6 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936 0.050936111

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/12/11 15:27:13


10000+
5600+
8500+
1500+
1250+
2000+ IK

Dwarfs: 4000
Empire: 4000
Bretonian: 3500
Goblins: 500

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x3, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap), Scatwick2 (swap)

*I'm on Bartertown as Dynas 
   
 
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