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Mathhammer Tables for Charge Ranges, 2d6, 2d6 from DS, 2d6 with Rerolls  [RSS] Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit
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Made in us
Dakka Veteran





Texas

I had some spare time on my hands. I search for tables but couldn't find anything, so... I made a thing.
Using mostly this website, and a little manual math.
http://anydice.com/


Mathhammer tables for Charge ranges.
Orange is a base 2d6 with no rerolls
Blue is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 9". Basically charge from Deepstrike and using an ability that grants a reroll of charges.
Yellow is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 8". Basically charge from Deepstrike, but you get a +1 to move or charges (adrenal glands on Tyranids for example).
Green is 2d6 and reroll the charge (both Dice) if result is less than 7". I just chose 7 because that is the most probable number on 2d6.
Purple is rerolling 1's on a single die.

Now the hardest one to figure was the Red. Roll 2d6, rerolling the single lowest die. Basically using a command point. The White table at the bottom is the data on this.

TL;DR Here are the Mathhammer results on Charging Tables.




https://i.imgur.com/v8BPhi7.png

:tyranid: 8500+
6000+
6400+
2500+
500+

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x2, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap) 
   
Made in us
Ultramarine Chaplain with Hate to Spare





Upstate, New York

Are you sure of your numbers? Seeing the red ones with over a 100% chance makes me doubt the whole thing. But it looks like a nice table and it’s always nice to see the odds layed out like this.

Ultramarines, 3rd Co. and friends, 12.5K+ Slowly growing 2Kish
Nevelon's Workbench: Ultramarines, Saim-Hann and other assorted oddities
 
   
Made in ca
Dakka Veteran





Texas

It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in

:tyranid: 8500+
6000+
6400+
2500+
500+

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x2, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap) 
   
Made in gb
Stormin' Stompa





Nice work! I've been looking for something like this. Very handy to help estimate the success of charging Deep Striking assault units.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/11/11 14:30:21


   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





Texas

Yeah, thats what i made it for. I was trying to figure that out. Too bad DS isnt at the beginning of the movement phase, but that would be way overpowered.

:tyranid: 8500+
6000+
6400+
2500+
500+

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x2, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap) 
   
Made in nl
Longtime Dakkanaut




I really don't get these tables.

I am an Ork player, and Orks can reroll failed charge rolls. So, if my boys need to make a 10" charge, what are my chances? And what are my chances, if I am willing to blow a CP on rerolling only a single die?
   
Made in dk
Deadly Dire Avenger





 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in



I think the problem is that the white table is using the wrong numbers for re rolling above the coloured line. The odds of rolling a 2 on the reroll shouldn't be higher then odds rolling a 1. It's also worth noting that the the math assumes you always reroll the lowest even in the case of a double 6. I think you'd be better of using 3d6 removing the lowest. (
   
Made in gb
Stormin' Stompa





Any chance of an update/second spreadsheet to include 3D6 chances?

Or if you don't have time to do that, uploading the actual spreadsheet so I can work on adding them? Just don't feel like re-duplicating it all if I don't have to, especially since I can't quite figure out how the command point odds are calculated.

Also the adrenal gland column is either mislabeled or wrong. The % values are for 2d6+1 under 8, but the values are for just 2d6. I think the % need to be for either 2D6 under 8 or 2D6+1 under 9

This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2017/12/08 11:19:26


   
Made in gb
Stormin' Stompa





I have updated the tables to fix errors and to add 3D6 probabilities.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1zubMHGDlXKEsvoJ56nBz6-NusPbKwp6dJzpJBkrfc/edit?usp=sharing

Image versions of each table:
Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/12/09 15:16:30


   
Made in us
Unhealthy Competition With Other Legions




Lost Carcosa

 BaconCatBug wrote:
I have updated the tables to fix errors and to add 3D6 probabilities.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1L1zubMHGDlXKEsvoJ56nBz6-NusPbKwp6dJzpJBkrfc/edit?usp=sharing

Image versions of each table:
Spoiler:

Spoiler:

Spoiler:


Good stuff. Thank you for the work put in and sharing.

Standing in the light, I see only darkness.  
   
Made in us
[DCM]
Perfected Haemonculi Living Sculpture






 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in


Well, not if you roll another 1 right?

   
Made in gb
Stormin' Stompa





 Red Corsair wrote:
 Dynas wrote:
It's over a 100 percent because of the reroll.
If you roll a 5 and 1 and reroll the 1, the probability of at least getting in a net 2,3,4,5,6 is guaranteed when a 1 is rolled. The reroll is factoring that in


Well, not if you roll another 1 right?
Yeah, that was a mistake I fixed in my tables.

Think about it, if you roll a 2 and a 2, reroll a 2 and get a 1. That's not a 100% chance of 4+

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/12/11 04:19:28


   
Made in us
Liberated Grot Land Raida




Another important number to remember is 57%. That is the total compound probability of making a 9" charge with the option to either reroll both dice (which you do if neither of the dice you rolled are 4, 5, or 6) and the option to reroll one die (if one of your dice is a 4, 5, 6).

The image is a little strange and contains my own figuring, but basically the way the number is calculated using the following formula

Compound odds of two random events = 1 - (inverse odds of first event * inverse odds of second event)

There are 10 results on 2 dice that get you a 9+, so your base odds are 10/36=~28%.

The remaining 26 states can then be weighted.

4/26 contain at least one six result. If you reroll the die that is not a 6, you have a 66% chance of getting your 9+. .66*(4/26) = .102

6/26 contain at least one five. If you reroll the die that isn't a five, you have a 50% chance of getting your 9+. .5*(6/26) = .115

7/26 contain at least one four. If you reroll the die that isn't a four, you have a 33% chance of getting your 9+. .33*(7/26) = .090

The remaining 9/26 you reroll both dice for the same 28% chance of your first roll. .28*(9/26) = .097

Add all those weighted probabilities together and that second roll, with the option of a reroll, is .404 or a hair over 40%. To get the total probability, we do our inverse formula from before.

1-((1-.28)*(1-.404)) = .571.

And, if you're curious what the odds are with just a single-die reroll, remove the double dice reroll section of the compound odds (the .28*(9/26)) because you don't get those if you can't reroll both dice. That number is almost exactly 50%. And, if you just want to take the double dice reroll and you don't want to try rerolling a single die, your odds are .482.

You'll notice how close these numbers actually are. If you want to bring in an alpha strike, and you're worried about how many units are going to get in, keep in mind that the units you'll be dropping in without the support of the one-die reroll are only 9% less likely to get in than the ones you do. And if you're sending in multiples of the same unit, it is very much in your interest to wait and fish for a failure result that includes a 5 or a 6 to use your single-die reroll on.

Of course, all of this pales in comparison to the current reigning champs of getting charges out of deep strikes, Genestealer Cult units using the new Meticulous Ambush strat with a Primus. That gives them SIX chances to get their favorable results of five and six. The odds of getting a six combined are .66 and their odds of either a five or a six are .89. And that's why Meticulous Ambush is probably the single best use of cp coming out of Chapter Approved, if not among the best in the game!
[Thumb - screen_shot_2017-12-01_at_12.58.02_pm.png]

   
Made in us
Dakka Veteran





Texas

So sorry, this thread got buried, had to dig it up.
This is what I used on the reroll 1's

Automatically Appended Next Post:
@baconCat - do you still want the file.

% on one Dice 1d6 ------> 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667 0.1667
Highest of 2d6V 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.027777778 1 0.004630556 0.013891667 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.083333333 2 0.013891667 0.013891667 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.138888889 3 0.023152778 0.023152778 0.023152778 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.194444444 4 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.032413889 0.041675 0.050936111
0.25 5 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.041675 0.050936111
0.305555556 6 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936111 0.050936 0.050936111

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2017/12/11 15:27:13


:tyranid: 8500+
6000+
6400+
2500+
500+

DakkaSwap Successful Transactions: cormadepanda, pretre x2, LibertineIX, Lbcwanabe, privateer4hire, Cruentus (swap) 
   
 
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