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Made in gb
Stalwart Veteran Guard Sergeant





Hey all

I was wondering if any of you knew good resources go playing around with dice odds for people who do not know the maths?

e.g. if i have a 3+ save and a 6+ FNP, what is my chance of saving the wound

   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





This should be helpful to you.

http://mathhammer.thefieldsofblood.com/

In basic terms a 3+ save fails 2 out of 6 times. Then a 6+++ is 5 out of 6 to fail.

So, (2/6) * (5/6) = 0.277 or ~28% to fail and 72% to succeed.

It gets more complicated when there are multi-damage weapons with FNP saves.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2018/11/02 16:11:06


 
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




Youve got your equation skewed. You want the odds of the save not occuring times the odds of the FNP not working.

In other words there's a (2/6) * (5/6) probability of a wound making it through (27.78%), which is the opposite of the save probability.

In other words, there's a 72.2% probability of this wound not happening.

Edit: appears fixed.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/11/02 16:13:00


 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





Sterling191 wrote:
Youve got your equation skewed. You want the odds of the save not occuring times the odds of the FNP not working.

In other words there's a (2/6) * (5/6) probability of a wound making it through (27.78%), which is the opposite of the save probability.

In other words, there's a 72.2% probability of this wound not happening.

Edit: appears fixed.


Yep - realized my brain fart and started fixing.
   
Made in us
Longtime Dakkanaut




All good, it's been a long week!
   
Made in gb
Stalwart Veteran Guard Sergeant





Really helpful, thanks both of you
   
Made in us
Clousseau





East Bay, Ca, US

Just use Microsoft excel. You can compute any 40k related math in excel.

 Galas wrote:
I remember when Marmatag was a nooby, all shiney and full of joy. How playing the unbalanced mess of Warhammer40k in a ultra-competitive meta has changed you

Bharring wrote:
He'll actually *change his mind* in the presence of sufficient/sufficiently defended information. Heretic.
 
   
Made in gb
Stubborn Dark Angels Veteran Sergeant






It's important to remember, if you or your opponent are using custom ordered dice, from my anecdotal yet extensive research of youtube battle reports, probability and thus mathhammer does not work, as the dice are most likely unbalanced and thus skews results.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/11/02 16:57:31


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Made in us
Clousseau





East Bay, Ca, US

endlesswaltz123 wrote:
It's important to remember, if you or your opponent are using custom ordered dice, from my anecdotal yet extensive research of youtube battle reports, that probability and thus mathhammer does not work, as the dice are most likely unbalanced and thus skews results.


Everyone should just use chessex dice. I get that we all have to be unique snowflakes but just use the standard.

I'm just waiting for the day when big tournaments up their cost a bit and provide dice to be used in the tournament.

 Galas wrote:
I remember when Marmatag was a nooby, all shiney and full of joy. How playing the unbalanced mess of Warhammer40k in a ultra-competitive meta has changed you

Bharring wrote:
He'll actually *change his mind* in the presence of sufficient/sufficiently defended information. Heretic.
 
   
Made in gb
Stubborn Dark Angels Veteran Sergeant






 Marmatag wrote:
endlesswaltz123 wrote:
It's important to remember, if you or your opponent are using custom ordered dice, from my anecdotal yet extensive research of youtube battle reports, that probability and thus mathhammer does not work, as the dice are most likely unbalanced and thus skews results.


Everyone should just use chessex dice. I get that we all have to be unique snowflakes but just use the standard.

I'm just waiting for the day when big tournaments up their cost a bit and provide dice to be used in the tournament.


There are some very big channels on the internet that have unbelievably skewed dice results and often, and hilariously it's only with certain players using certain dice.

My hobby instagram account: @the_shroud_of_vigilance
My Shroud of Vigilance Hobby update blog for me detailed updates and lore on the faction:
Blog 
   
Made in fi
Hoary Long Fang with Lascannon




Finland

http://www.dice-hammer.com/#!/damage is by far the best online tool I've come across. It's a bit daunting at first but really easy once you get the hang of it.

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3500
2000 
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





 Marmatag wrote:
endlesswaltz123 wrote:
It's important to remember, if you or your opponent are using custom ordered dice, from my anecdotal yet extensive research of youtube battle reports, that probability and thus mathhammer does not work, as the dice are most likely unbalanced and thus skews results.


Everyone should just use chessex dice. I get that we all have to be unique snowflakes but just use the standard.

I'm just waiting for the day when big tournaments up their cost a bit and provide dice to be used in the tournament.


But I love the TS dice.

I haven't tested them, but I've never known a dice set to be wildly off to make it appear that there is something wrong.

Though I do roll a lot of 1s at the wrong time...
   
Made in gb
Stubborn Dark Angels Veteran Sergeant






I'll add, there is another channel that continues to use a set of dice that is absolutely not to their benefit whatsoever.... It has to be close to a 1/3 or 1/2 chance of rolling a 1 for that guy.

My hobby instagram account: @the_shroud_of_vigilance
My Shroud of Vigilance Hobby update blog for me detailed updates and lore on the faction:
Blog 
   
Made in us
Ultramarine Chaplain with Hate to Spare






 Marmatag wrote:

Everyone should just use chessex dice.

There is some doubt regarding Chessex (and GW) dice:
https://www.dakkadakka.com/wiki/en/That's_How_I_Roll_-_A_Scientific_Analysis_of_Dice

To note, they ran the experiment with the small ones. Personally I use the large ones and they seem fine, my plasma doesn't seem to overheat any more than I'd expect .

. . .

Also regarding dice: Use dice that don't have weird pictures and icons on them, it's a pain in the *** when it's unclear what's a one or a six because it's a skull or a star or whatever.

Also obnoxious are small dice with marbling and matching pip colors. They're fine for an RPG being played around a small table when smaller numbers of dice are being rolled, but when my opponent rolls 60 attacks on small dice that are marbled green and yellow with yellow pips and I'm watching from 4-5 feet away from across the table, things are not clear, and it's noticeable that the lack of readability can slow the rolling player down too.

Solid colors with high-contrast pips are recommended. If Chessex, go with the bigger ones.


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Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





 Insectum7 wrote:
 Marmatag wrote:

Everyone should just use chessex dice.

There is some doubt regarding Chessex (and GW) dice:
https://www.dakkadakka.com/wiki/en/That's_How_I_Roll_-_A_Scientific_Analysis_of_Dice

To note, they ran the experiment with the small ones. Personally I use the large ones and they seem fine, my plasma doesn't seem to overheat any more than I'd expect .

. . .

Also regarding dice: Use dice that don't have weird pictures and icons on them, it's a pain in the *** when it's unclear what's a one or a six because it's a skull or a star or whatever.

Also obnoxious are small dice with marbling and matching pip colors. They're fine for an RPG being played around a small table when smaller numbers of dice are being rolled, but when my opponent rolls 60 attacks on small dice that are marbled green and yellow with yellow pips and I'm watching from 4-5 feet away from across the table, things are not clear, and it's noticeable that the lack of readability can slow the rolling player down too.

Solid colors with high-contrast pips are recommended. If Chessex, go with the bigger ones.



That's a fun, but pretty old article.

There are more precise dice out there now.

https://www.awesomedice.com/dice-manufacturers/gamescience-dice
   
Made in fi
Longtime Dakkanaut






The best tool for dice related things is AnyDice https://anydice.com/

Allows you to check pretty arbitrarily whatever you want, as long as you can be bothered to read the instructions.

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Made in gb
Frenzied Berserker Terminator






Mordian2016 wrote:
Hey all

I was wondering if any of you knew good resources go playing around with dice odds for people who do not know the maths?

e.g. if i have a 3+ save and a 6+ FNP, what is my chance of saving the wound



game theory, there are probably a lot of dice sources out there based on that, wouldn't actually be surprised if some math wizard did a study on 40k.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2018/11/02 23:09:28


 
   
 
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